Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
HermansCVR580
Topic Author
Posts: 417
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 1999 5:29 am

United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:53 pm

Yay!!!!

United has announced seasonal service June thru September Milwaukee to San Francisco. It’s a start but should be a popular route. Now we need AA MKE-MIA.
The right decision at the wrong time, is still a wrong decision. "Hal Carr"
 
kiowa
Posts: 748
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:01 pm

Good to hear! Aircraft?
 
caleb1
Posts: 548
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 1:51 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:22 pm

A 319
 
YYZORD
Posts: 495
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:37 pm

I wonder how AC can make YYZ-MKE work but domestic flights like LAX and SFO cannot work year round.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2812
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:44 pm

YYZORD wrote:
I wonder how AC can make YYZ-MKE work but domestic flights like LAX and SFO cannot work year round.


Because some routes take time to establish. If routes perform well, they gradually increase such as going from seasonal to year-round.
 
babastud
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:38 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:45 pm

YYZORD wrote:
I wonder how AC can make YYZ-MKE work but domestic flights like LAX and SFO cannot work year round.


MKE-LAX/SFO can work (remember midwest express). It's just that UA over the years has chosen to route through ORD instead of direct.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3312
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:49 pm

YYZORD wrote:
I wonder how AC can make YYZ-MKE work but domestic flights like LAX and SFO cannot work year round.


Stage length? Aircraft size? Geography? All probably factors. I can see why AC could fill 50-100 seats daily on a sub-2-hour flight with connections beyond YYZ to all kinds of transatlantic destinations and eastern Canada (plus Toronto O&D), while domestic airlines might fail to fill 130-170 seats daily on a 4-hour flight mostly reliant on O&D. Sure, SFO should provide some connections to Asia (depending on the flight schedule), but if you're going from MKE to Asia it's actually much geographically shorter and likely faster to just fly through ORD, MSP, or DTW.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
kiowa
Posts: 748
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:29 am

caleb1 wrote:
A 319


good, glad to hear not an rj or 737.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3600
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:35 am

The demand is clearly there for daily nonstop service to SFO from MKE as the PDEW on SFO-MKE was 131 passengers per day in Q2 2019. UA will also be able to offer connections to Asia, Hawaii, Australia, New Zealand, and Tahiti from MKE through SFO.

There are also some UA FF's with MileagePlus Premier elite status that would connect to MKE from SFO on UA instead of taking the WN MKE-SFO nonstops, and UA will get some O&D traffic from UA FF's in the San Francisco Bay Area on its MKE-SFO nonstop flights when it starts MKE-SFO nonstop service.
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 3024
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:53 am

jplatts wrote:
The demand is clearly there for daily nonstop service to SFO from MKE as the PDEW on SFO-MKE was 131 passengers per day in Q2 2019. UA will also be able to offer connections to Asia, Hawaii, Australia, New Zealand, and Tahiti from MKE through SFO.


Those quarterly stats are only so-so at projecting demand because demand isn't a fixeQ4d quantity. Demand is heavily shaped by the presence/absence of service, capacity and fare. That's true pretty much anyplace but it's especially pronounced when there's major bleed potential to other airports to to the highway.

Check out how much MKE-SFO demand has plummeted in the course of a few years as nonstop service was curtailed from daily to 9 weeks in summer:
MKE-SFO passengers each way
Q1 2015....161.....2018......73
Q2 2015....242.....2018....124
Q3 2015....261.....2018....155
Q4 2015....191.....2018....120

MKE-SFO averages were quite a big higher during the AirTran/Midwest/Frontier dogfight years, peaking at around 312 daily one-way passengers in summer of 2010, but the fares that stimulated that level of traffic were unsustainably low. A knock on MKE-SFO has been that average local yield hasn't been that good, and that was certainly true 8-10+ years ago. But yields have strengthened to be fairly comparable to Chicago-SFO.

Four most recent quarter average fares MDW/MKE/ORD to SFO
.....................MDW.....MKE.....ORD
Q3 2018........223.......249.......261
Q4 2018........225.......250.......290
Q1 2019........194.......271.......273
Q2 2019........228.......262.......301

United won't have trouble filling seats and likely will get a solid yield, even if they run a much longer season (or even a daily-year-round service). And unlike Southwest the MKE-SFO market contributes to network synergy with the big SFO hub. The market is sort of an odd appendage to Southwest and not something which builds the network, probably well down on the priority list for them. But hopefully United sees more benefit in it.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14468
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:01 am

FSDan wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I wonder how AC can make YYZ-MKE work but domestic flights like LAX and SFO cannot work year round.


Stage length? Aircraft size? Geography? All probably factors. I can see why AC could fill 50-100 seats daily on a sub-2-hour flight with connections beyond YYZ to all kinds of transatlantic destinations and eastern Canada (plus Toronto O&D), while domestic airlines might fail to fill 130-170 seats daily on a 4-hour flight mostly reliant on O&D. Sure, SFO should provide some connections to Asia (depending on the flight schedule), but if you're going from MKE to Asia it's actually much geographically shorter and likely faster to just fly through ORD, MSP, or DTW.


It’s stage length and connections. AC revenue manages the GGN flights to favor heavily longhaul connections. (Last summer, I flew home from YUL on UA in F for $100 less than AC in Y through YYZ.) This strategy seemingly works for them. And being the only nonstop to Toronto - the fourth-largest metropolis in North America - helps too. I’d personally drive to MDW and fly PD, but I think most high-yield travelers probably stick with AC.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8012
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:25 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
And being the only nonstop to Toronto - the fourth-largest metropolis in North America - helps too.


Toronto is a great city but for U.S. traffic the relevant metric isn't metro size but transborder traffic volume. If you compared YYZ transborder traffic to domestic enplanements at major U.S. airports it wouldn't even crack the top 15. YYZ had 11.6 million transborder passengers YTD 10/2019.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14468
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:47 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
And being the only nonstop to Toronto - the fourth-largest metropolis in North America - helps too.


Toronto is a great city but for U.S. traffic the relevant metric isn't metro size but transborder traffic volume. If you compared YYZ transborder traffic to domestic enplanements at major U.S. airports it wouldn't even crack the top 15. YYZ had 11.6 million transborder passengers YTD 10/2019.


I don’t know that that’s as relevant a datum as it seems. After all, the number one driver of transborder demand is Canadians fleeing winter, and YYZ leaks terribly in that department. In the States, a count of domestic passengers captures each of the top 10 or 15 business markets from a given city. Not so in Toronto. Toronto also suffers some from a perception amongst folks in the States (unfair IMO) that it’s not a worthwhile leisure destination.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
mmo
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:18 pm

Years ago NW used to run a daily 727-100 from MKE-SFO-MKE and it was normally fairly full with a very good yield. Also, it was normally packed with mail and cargo.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
bobsmith99
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:02 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:02 pm

Good news for MKE. Although I must admit I'm a little perplexed that MSN has year round LAX and SFO service while MKE has to live with seasonal to LAX on WN as well as to SFO on UA. It looks like MSN has clearly become a focus city for SY so it has other options that MKE has (like PDX not stop). Point being- I feel like MKE could support year round to both of those California cities. Couldn't UA downgauge SFO service during the winter to a regional? Sorry- stream of consciousness here.
 
Lpbri
Posts: 223
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:18 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:06 pm

UA operated this route in the 70s
 
jplatts
Posts: 3600
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:18 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
Good news for MKE. Although I must admit I'm a little perplexed that MSN has year round LAX and SFO service while MKE has to live with seasonal to LAX on WN as well as to SFO on UA. It looks like MSN has clearly become a focus city for SY so it has other options that MKE has (like PDX not stop). Point being- I feel like MKE could support year round to both of those California cities. Couldn't UA downgauge SFO service during the winter to a regional? Sorry- stream of consciousness here.


I have previously mentioned AA adding MKE-LAX nonstop service with AA having more market share at LAX than any other carrier and with AA already serving LAX nonstop from ORD, CMH, IND, OMA, and STL in the Midwest.

MKE-SFO is longer than any of the Wisconsin to West Coast nonstop routes that are currently operated on regional jets such as MSN-LAX, MSN-SFO, and MKE-SEA. I am not sure if MKE-SFO is within the range of regional jets with MKE-SFO being longer than any nonstop routes that are currently operated under the AA, DL, UA, or AS brands on regional jets.
 
LHUSA
Posts: 828
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:15 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:58 pm

bobsmith99 wrote:
Good news for MKE. Although I must admit I'm a little perplexed that MSN has year round LAX and SFO service while MKE has to live with seasonal to LAX on WN as well as to SFO on UA. It looks like MSN has clearly become a focus city for SY so it has other options that MKE has (like PDX not stop). Point being- I feel like MKE could support year round to both of those California cities. Couldn't UA downgauge SFO service during the winter to a regional? Sorry- stream of consciousness here.


MSN-LAX/SFO year round is due to a Epic Systems
 
User avatar
TVNWZ
Posts: 2267
Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:28 am

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:49 pm

Lpbri wrote:
UA operated this route in the 70s


I took it in ‘74. DC8. Left in a snow storm.
 
User avatar
NWAESC
Posts: 1573
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:00 pm

LHUSA wrote:
bobsmith99 wrote:
Good news for MKE. Although I must admit I'm a little perplexed that MSN has year round LAX and SFO service while MKE has to live with seasonal to LAX on WN as well as to SFO on UA. It looks like MSN has clearly become a focus city for SY so it has other options that MKE has (like PDX not stop). Point being- I feel like MKE could support year round to both of those California cities. Couldn't UA downgauge SFO service during the winter to a regional? Sorry- stream of consciousness here.


MSN-LAX/SFO year round is due to a Epic Systems


As is DL's MSN-SLC and a couple of other routes. That said, MSN (like MKE) has a pretty large catchment area- another reason why it punches above it's weight.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14468
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:35 am

NWAESC wrote:
LHUSA wrote:
bobsmith99 wrote:
Good news for MKE. Although I must admit I'm a little perplexed that MSN has year round LAX and SFO service while MKE has to live with seasonal to LAX on WN as well as to SFO on UA. It looks like MSN has clearly become a focus city for SY so it has other options that MKE has (like PDX not stop). Point being- I feel like MKE could support year round to both of those California cities. Couldn't UA downgauge SFO service during the winter to a regional? Sorry- stream of consciousness here.


MSN-LAX/SFO year round is due to a Epic Systems


As is DL's MSN-SLC and a couple of other routes. That said, MSN (like MKE) has a pretty large catchment area- another reason why it punches above it's weight.


Yup. And adding service helps that. If I need to go Beloit-SAN, the most sensible way to do that is probably driving to Chicago. But for Beloit-SFO, I might well look at the MSN nonstop.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SFAviationGeek
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:00 pm

Re: United seasonal MKE-SFO

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:08 am

The seasonal nature of this flight is perplexing. What drives traffic specifically between these two cities in summer above other times of year?

Regardless, good to see more direct flights between MKE and SFO. I used to go to MKE once a year for work and it was laughably difficult to get there considering how big both cities are.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos