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edealinfo
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:59 am

jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?


What's the logic? Why couldn't DL get it on its own?
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:20 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Delta28L wrote:
My guess is China since they order in big batches and they don’t list the individual airlines till delivery.


I think China is in no position to take more widebody aircraft right now. The biggest airline, Hainan, is getting rid of its A350 and 787 orders. They ordered too many aircraft.

??? Hainan is always smaller than CN3 (MU, CZ, CA) and will always be.....

And their financial woes is of their own misery (of not evaluating their buying ability and overexpanded their portfolio in non-aviation sector) than anything else.

Michael
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:02 pm

Eirules wrote:
Any possibility it’s IAG? Order to be split between the individual airlines?


Not that big an order. They would not have a need for more than 20, if all of the IB A333s were transferred to EI. (The two higher MTOW frames, FNG/H, could be used for LAX.) Then IB would get the A339 order and its fleet would be A339s and 242t A332s.
 
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flee
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:49 pm

edealinfo wrote:
jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?

What's the logic? Why couldn't DL get it on its own?

Tariffs on Airbus planes that are not from Mobile....

This UFO order is most likely to be from China - the trade war with the US means that revenge will be sweet as China will buy Airbus and RR, even though a proportion of the deal may end up with US suppliers.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:19 pm

LoganTheBogan wrote:
The Singapore Airshow is coming up soon, isn't it? Any chance we could see an order announcement from an Asian carrier there?

True. Maybe SQ wants to add the A339 to their regional A359 and B78X fleet. KE has ~ 40 A330 and B772, this would be a nice replacement and AFAIK KE is not publicly listed so doesn't need to announce an order.
 
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Polot
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:25 pm

mxaxai wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
The Singapore Airshow is coming up soon, isn't it? Any chance we could see an order announcement from an Asian carrier there?

True. Maybe SQ wants to add the A339 to their regional A359 and B78X fleet. KE has ~ 40 A330 and B772, this would be a nice replacement and AFAIK KE is not publicly listed so doesn't need to announce an order.

SQ does not need 40 A339s. They only have just over 20 A333/77E/773As left and still have nearly 30 787Xs and just over 22 A350s (not sure how many are regional) still due for delivery.

KE just ordered a bunch of 787s just a few months ago. I don’t see them going for 40 A339s right now especially due to all the family drama and selling off of non core businesses at the moment.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:30 pm

I'd be very, very surprised if this isn't China.
 
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OA940
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:31 pm

No current operator of the neo is gonna order 40 additional aircraft. It's probably China, but it could also be another new operator. The order probably includes options too, so the actual number is probably closer to 20 which would grow the list of potential customers
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TWA772LR
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:31 pm

STT757 wrote:
I'm going to guess United, for three reasons. First they're already on the board there for the A321XLR order, this could be an disclosed part of that order. Second they have 38 763s which while being recently nicely updated are getting old. They're 763 fleet ranges from 1991 to the three former Hawaiian birds which are 2002 and 2003 builds.

40 A330NEOs to replace 38 763s sounds right, two aircraft for growth.

Third Rolls Royce engines, a sticking point has been rumored to prevent them from getting out of the A350 deal.

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Im thinking United too. It was stated (either by them directly or an a.net thread) that they were exploring the possibility of an A321/A330 order to replace the 757/767 either last year or the year before. The tricky part is the 330neo (8 with the range and 9 with the capacity) is way too much plane to replace the 763. Plus has UA ever done a ufo order before? This doesnt seem like them.

Personally I'd love to see UA stick it out for the NMA to replace the 767, and for Airbus/RR to slap ultrafans on the A350 for UA to directly replace the 77E.
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yoyo777
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:37 pm

I would guess it is MU 20 + CA 10 + CZ 10
 
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Polot
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:41 pm

OA940 wrote:
No current operator of the neo is gonna order 40 additional aircraft. It's probably China, but it could also be another new operator. The order probably includes options too, so the actual number is probably closer to 20 which would grow the list of potential customers

Airbus’s order book does not include options. This is 40 firm orders.
 
tphuang
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:47 pm

I'd be shocked if this isn't China. Remember, those A330CEO need replacement. All the big 3 have a lot of them. And thanks to the trade war, China isn't placing orders for 787 anytime soon.
 
LJ
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:21 pm

Jouhou wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Air China.



If it's a Chinese airline, the customer will probably remain undisclosed until a politically opportune moment a year or two from now and be announced as a "new" order..


Does anyone know when Von Leyen (new EU Commisioner) is going to China?

inkjet7 wrote:
Wouldn't AF need to announce an order like this? I also believe they announced ten more A350's (from 28 to 38 on order) to replace the A380's.


Yes, just like any other airline listed on the SEC, European exchanges or any other exchange with similar disclosure rules (thus we can exclude all airlines from the LH Group, IAG, AF/KL, DL incuding material subsidiaries and many more). Don't know abou Turkish exhange rules though.
 
T4thH
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:25 pm

Polot wrote:
OA940 wrote:
No current operator of the neo is gonna order 40 additional aircraft. It's probably China, but it could also be another new operator. The order probably includes options too, so the actual number is probably closer to 20 which would grow the list of potential customers

Airbus’s order book does not include options. This is 40 firm orders.


Correct, these are 40x firmed A330-900 orders; there could be additional options e.g, but these will not be listed in the Airbus monthly listing of orders and deliveries.

All airlines/lessors e.g., which are listed at any stock exchange will have to announce an order of jets immediately, latest prior start of the stock exchange market on the following day. So this excludes many of the in this thread mentioned airlines, like UA, AA, Delta, IAG group, LH group, Qantas and many others. All these are listed. Also many lessors. Lessors also regular will not order 40 widebodies at once (if we are talking about the A330-900). They would order smaller batches. This is also no A330-900 freighter order by Amazon e.g., forget it. A A330-900F is a jet which will need an own independent certification by the FAA e.g. First an A330-900F is not even announced by Airbus, second, Airbus has in their monthly listings an own column for the A330-200F (as different certified). So it is no order by Amazon e.g. for a Neo freighter.
So what is left?
First: An airline or lessor, which is big enough to order 40x A330-900 at once and which is not listed on a stock market. In this case I do see only one airline, which is big enough to be able to do so, this will be the government owned Emirates. In Feb-2019 there was the MoU for an A350 and 40x A330-900 order. In Autumn, the order was changed/swapped to an only A350 order and the A330 MoU part was cancelled. But Emirates stated, that a possible A330 order was still on the table... Emirates has stated, they will move two a 100% two engines fleet in next years. Additional Emirates is still committed in a contract with RR for the cancelled A380 order, the swap from A380 to A350 Xwb was still not enough, there are still some RR jet engines left which have to be swapped.
It is possible, Emirates has ordered the 40x A330-900 and the RR Trent engines.

Else I see the Chinese government, who has ordered the A330-900 for their state owned/controlled big airlines. It is now time for replacement of the A330 ceo and first B787s; regarding trade war...when it will end, we will see some B787 orders, prior end not. There were no big B787/A330 orders in last two years from China, last prior ordered A330 have been now delivered. It is now time for the next order.

So Emirates or China.
 
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Polot
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:48 pm

Airlines under disclosure requirements are not always as quick as users here assume they need to be to disclose the order. HA, DL, and UA, off the top of my head, have both announced orders that turned out to be UFOs (or announced weeks after we learned they firmly signed). But there is a difference between a a relatively small add on order and 40 wide bodies- that would be disclosed very quickly.

The US aviation media also, for obvious reasons, has a lot of contacts and leaks at the US3. Reuters announced the UA XLR deal before UA/Airbus did. There has been nary a peep about any US carrier ordering 40 A330s.

It’s almost certainly China. I don’t think EK mostly because EK loves media attention and would be teasing a build up of will they or won’t they also order A330s (beyond just the interview they did around A350/787 order).
 
Checklist787
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:03 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Massive win for Airbus. Pushes the A330neo total orders, ahead of the 777X in the battle of the refreshed WBs.

Very strange comparison here
Why not compare orange to orange and apple to apple in this case?

The A350-1000 would have been appropriate

Anyway congrats to Airbus for this order!
The A330neo program seems good!
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Do it! "...
 
mig17
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:20 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Massive win for Airbus. Pushes the A330neo total orders, ahead of the 777X in the battle of the refreshed WBs.

Very strange comparison here
Why not compare orange to orange and apple to apple in this case?

The A350-1000 would have been appropriate

Anyway congrats for Airbus for this order!
The A330neo program seems good!

A330neo and 777X are not in the same category, but in a similar stage in their life. Both original aircraft from the 90s, improved since then and sold very (very) well for nearly 2 decade and are now facing competition in their market from new, more efficient designs. Both are now fiting new engines to try to stay in the market and have been strugling to.
The difference is the A330neo is "smaller", positionned where the mass of the market is today with 789 and A359 while the 777-X tries to be a VLA. In this not direct contest, the A330neo will win, but the real A330neo win is to exist against the 787.
The "appropriate comparaison to 777-X isn-t A350-1000, it is A350 and there is no match there. The question will be the same as for the A330neo against 787, will the X exist against A350?
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DCA350
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:05 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Massive win for Airbus. Pushes the A330neo total orders, ahead of the 777X in the battle of the refreshed WBs.

Very strange comparison here
Why not compare orange to orange and apple to apple in this case?

The A350-1000 would have been appropriate

Anyway congrats to Airbus for this order!
The A330neo program seems good!


The comparison was made because while they are not in direct competition for RFPs, they are rivals in the WB portfolios of Airbus and Boeing.. Both offer new designs, A350 vs 787 and refreshed, A330NEO vs 777X.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:16 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Massive win for Airbus. Pushes the A330neo total orders, ahead of the 777X in the battle of the refreshed WBs.

Very strange comparison here
Why not compare orange to orange and apple to apple in this case?

The A350-1000 would have been appropriate

Anyway congrats to Airbus for this order!
The A330neo program seems good!


The comparison was made because while they are not in direct competition for RFPs, they are rivals in the WB portfolios of Airbus and Boeing.. Both offer new designs, A350 vs 787 and refreshed, A330NEO vs 777X.


Sorry its still doesn't mean anything to me. Where then tell me it's a smaller aircraft that sells better. There I understand you better because otherwise I can ONLY deduce that the 777-X is a byproduct according to you... :eek:
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:43 pm

I will say it's either Emirates having firmed up its order, or AirAsia with a top-up, but am leaning toward Emirates. Emirates has been considering the A330neo as a regional hauler, and AirAsia is the major driving force behind the A330neo and why the MTOW was upped to 251t. The other airline going all in on the A339, Delta, would not need that many frames...they have 35 on direct order plus 2 being leased from the ALC order book. If it's Emirates, I see it being used toward smaller cities where a 777 is too big, but where flydubai is too small or the range isn't sufficient.

The other wild card is Cathay Pacific (plus Dragon), as they have some ancient A330s (including the first one ever built) that need replacement, along with B773(A) frames that are are 18 years of age or older., this would be a replacement of their ancient A333s (the oldest 25) and the 17 B773(A) frames, OR it could be to move A321s (including the HK Express fleet if reconfigured to Cathay Dragon standards) to A321 routes and move the current A321 routes to A330 service...retiring the ancient A320s and A321s. Cathay Pacific (plus Dragon) has a lot of old planes needing replacement and HK Express, an acquisition recently closed, is probably worth more its fleet than keeping that brand alive.
 
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:16 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I will say it's either Emirates having firmed up its order, or AirAsia with a top-up, but am leaning toward Emirates. Emirates has been considering the A330neo as a regional hauler, and AirAsia is the major driving force behind the A330neo and why the MTOW was upped to 251t. The other airline going all in on the A339, Delta, would not need that many frames...they have 35 on direct order plus 2 being leased from the ALC order book. If it's Emirates, I see it being used toward smaller cities where a 777 is too big, but where flydubai is too small or the range isn't sufficient.

If EK, is the demarcation still EK = WB / FZ = NB, or given STC's announced retirement, and MAX delivery issues, have the operational lines been re-drawn, with WB aircraft destined for FZ?

Might explain why Airbus were very gracious in the apparent loss of the original 40x 339 MoU earlier in 2019, and why both A and EK referenced future opportunities for the A330NEO.

Behind the scenes, negotiations are already conducted with observers (FZ observe EK and vice versa), presumably to build expertise, and as preparation for centralised IAG-style purchasing.
 
eagles94
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:23 pm

For arguments sake, could it not be on a less obvious underdog, like Jet2 or Wizz
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:28 pm

Very little chance this order is for DL - it has orders for nearly 50 A330/A350 for delivery within the next six to seven years. I'd expect DL to monitor economic conditions over the next several years, and pricing of used and new aircraft, before proceeding with a large order - which likely won't be for 40 aircraft at once. The lion's share of the 763 fleet, and all of the 764 and probably 777, have at least another decade of service left. There's no rush to replace these aircraft, and DL isn't going to act until it gets a deal it can't say no to.

TWA772LR wrote:
STT757 wrote:
I'm going to guess United, for three reasons. First they're already on the board there for the A321XLR order, this could be an disclosed part of that order. Second they have 38 763s which while being recently nicely updated are getting old. They're 763 fleet ranges from 1991 to the three former Hawaiian birds which are 2002 and 2003 builds...


UA just deferred 45 A350 for delivery beginning in 2027... and that order is certainly questionable. Very little chance they'd add 40 330NEO, and even less chance they'd take delivery of 85 widebodies in a short time period.
 
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STT757
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Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:33 pm

We do know Airbus was pitching both the A321LR and A330NEO to United going as far as to fly the A330NEO to Chicago to show it off first hand. Half of that deal has so far come to fruition with the A321XLR order.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 62.article

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-unit ... SKCN1IJ1SK

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Checklist787
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:44 pm

STT757 wrote:
We do know Airbus was pitching both the A321LR and A330NEO to United going as far as to fly the A330NEO to Chicago to show it off first hand. Half of that deal has so far come to fruition with the A321XLR order.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 62.article

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-unit ... SKCN1IJ1SK

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


United already owns the whole 787-8 / -9 / -10 family as well as the 737MAX but also ordered the A350-900.

The A330neo had clearly not justified...
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Do it! "...
 
MHG
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:36 pm

ethernal wrote:
The fact that it is 40 widebodies narrows down the potential buyer list to maybe 10-15 possible airlines.

Perhaps it is Delta throwing in the towel on NMA and beginning to execute on a replacement strategy for 767s? Not sure why they wouldn't want it disclosed though.

The only other existing A339 customer that could potentially have the scale and ambition to order 40 A339s would be AirAsia. So it is probably either Delta, AirAsia, a leasing company, or a new operator of the type.

I was thinking of Air Asia (X), too.
But I´m wondering whether they have the deep pockets needed for such an order.
I guess if it´s them a great part of the order will replace their existing A330-300´s.
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devron
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:04 pm

China what else?

Expect some Boeing orders on the 15th at the signing of a trade 1 phase. Classical china trick worried about unfair trade order some boeings and a same ammount of Airbus
 
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:05 pm

MHG wrote:
ethernal wrote:
The fact that it is 40 widebodies narrows down the potential buyer list to maybe 10-15 possible airlines.

Perhaps it is Delta throwing in the towel on NMA and beginning to execute on a replacement strategy for 767s? Not sure why they wouldn't want it disclosed though.

The only other existing A339 customer that could potentially have the scale and ambition to order 40 A339s would be AirAsia. So it is probably either Delta, AirAsia, a leasing company, or a new operator of the type.

I was thinking of Air Asia (X), too.
But I´m wondering whether they have the deep pockets needed for such an order.
I guess if it´s them a great part of the order will replace their existing A330-300´s.


AirAsia X has 78 A330-900 on order. When they ordered it was with lots of publicity. Very unlikely that those 40 are for them.

I also think Emirates is unlikely, I do not remember any undisclosed firm orders.

For me a 40 frame undisclosed A330-900 order will be a Chinese order for one or more of the 3 state airlines, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:13 pm

STT757 wrote:
We do know Airbus was pitching both the A321LR and A330NEO to United going as far as to fly the A330NEO to Chicago to show it off first hand. Half of that deal has so far come to fruition with the A321XLR order.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 62.article

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-unit ... SKCN1IJ1SK


IMO, it's probable that the 321LR order will replace the 350 order, which will be quietly cancelled sometime in the near future. In 2009, when UA ordered the 350, it was reported that UA stood to lose nearly $100M between lost deposits and cancellation fees if it had x'd its 319/320 orders (but that $$ was rolled into the 350 order). No doubt that amount has vastly increased, hence the 321 order. I strongly believe that if UA had ordered the 330, it would've been converted from the 350 order and there wouldn't have a 321 order.
 
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:41 pm

flee wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?

What's the logic? Why couldn't DL get it on its own?

Tariffs on Airbus planes that are not from Mobile....

This UFO order is most likely to be from China - the trade war with the US means that revenge will be sweet as China will buy Airbus and RR, even though a proportion of the deal may end up with US suppliers.


China is a huge Boeing customer too. There is no revenge.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:59 pm

As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically
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rbavfan
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pm

flyby519 wrote:
If it was an American company like DL wouldn’t they be required to notify the SEC and investors immediately? I thought these “undisclosed” customers always meant non-US


Not until payments are made. Customers like Delta can get most likely get better terms on that. Thus allowing them to keep their plans private till a point too late for their main competition to react.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:45 pm

jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?


Before anyone laughs at this concept, what would this have in terms of tax implications and tariff avoidance?

northstardc4m wrote:
As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically


Air Transat actually makes it seem simpler, as they have 20 A330s (16 A332s, of which 11 are low-MTOW 230t versions, and four A333s, 1 of which is 230t and the other 3 are 212t only). All of the A330s at Air Transat are leased, albeit some are based on actual time in the air. As such, if there is a big A330 order for Air Canada, it could make sense, even though Air Canada already operates 8 B788s and 29 B789s. However, Boeing might try to entice AC with a 30-35 plane B78X/B788 order with a discount owing to problems with the MAX. In the meantime, the TS A21Ns could slot in where the MAX fleet could, and AC could order more from lessors for quicker delivery, retaining the A321 as its only Airbus narrowbody.

(This presumes that AC can close the TS purchase, and I also believe that AC has no need to replace its B77Ls or a need for more B789s beyond the 29 already in the fleet, making their wide-body fleet B77L/B77W/B788/B789/B78X if that order is done, meaning you have one single pilot pool for everything.)
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
codyul
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:46 pm

northstardc4m wrote:
As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically


I was hoping that hehe. AC 330neos would be great!
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
jbs2886
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:50 pm

Polot wrote:
Airlines under disclosure requirements are not always as quick as users here assume they need to be to disclose the order. HA, DL, and UA, off the top of my head, have both announced orders that turned out to be UFOs (or announced weeks after we learned they firmly signed). But there is a difference between a a relatively small add on order and 40 wide bodies- that would be disclosed very quickly.

The US aviation media also, for obvious reasons, has a lot of contacts and leaks at the US3. Reuters announced the UA XLR deal before UA/Airbus did. There has been nary a peep about any US carrier ordering 40 A330s.

It’s almost certainly China. I don’t think EK mostly because EK loves media attention and would be teasing a build up of will they or won’t they also order A330s (beyond just the interview they did around A350/787 order).


100% everyone is claiming US airlines MUST announce firm orders almost immediately, but there are plenty of examples where they haven’t. But, the size of this order does change that.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:24 pm

MHG wrote:
I was thinking of Air Asia (X), too.


AirAsia X already has 78 A339s on order (comfortably more than enough to replace their entire A333 fleet). I can't see it being them.
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DLHAM
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:59 pm

COULD be United ... They just ordered the XLR and the 330neo would fit that perfectly in terms of commonality. Also the number of 40 sounds right to replace the 767-300ER. Would be a pretty big capacity boost though. But for Destinations that are too small for the 330neo could be served with the XLR, at least in low season.
This would be really bad for the 797. Could be a conversion from the 350 order :stirthepot: :hyper: :rotfl: ...
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TWA772LR
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:01 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
UA just deferred 45 A350 for delivery beginning in 2027... and that order is certainly questionable. Very little chance they'd add 40 330NEO, and even less chance they'd take delivery of 85 widebodies in a short time period.

At this point anything pertaining to UA and A330s is pure speculation. They could cancel the A350 totally (maintaining the RR contract), order these and totally uproot the 767 and keep the A350 to replace the 777, or someone in the Sears Tower can be reading this and thinking we're all nuts. Nonetheless I love speculating on UAs future fleet options :)
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Favre4
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:03 am

jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?


Why wouldn’t DL just buy them ?
 
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flee
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:09 am

scbriml wrote:
MHG wrote:
I was thinking of Air Asia (X), too.

AirAsia X already has 78 A339s on order (comfortably more than enough to replace their entire A333 fleet). I can't see it being them.

Airasia X originally indicated they would like to order another 34 in a top up order - their original order was for 66. By the time they firmed up the order it was reduced to 10 plus 20 A321XLRs. Two more were added when they took up the WoW NTUs on lease. Their financials aren't that strong and I highly doubt it is them.

As many here also said, Emirates and Airasia X love publicity and are seldom, if ever, involved in UFOs. This is in contrast with Chinese airlines which often receive aircraft ordered by a centralised procurement agency of the Chinese government. As for Cathay Pacific, they are a listed company in the HK stock exchange and disclosure is required.
 
beechnut
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:54 am

northstardc4m wrote:
As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically


Beat me to it! My thought was the same, 25 at Rouge as 767 replacements (having had 2 major delays on Rouge 767s due to mechanical issues in the 4 times I flew Rouge, I'd welcome this), and 15 at mainline.

I also think Boeing would try to entice AC into more 787s as compensation for the MAX. But I suspect AC is really gun-shy about Boeing these days. And the 330 fits nicely for transatlantic and west-coast to east Asia routes. I don't think AC needs any more 787s, too much capability and $ for the A330 missions.

On the other hand AC has just added a bunch of used 330s to their fleet, bringing the total to... gee 15, that fits our math!

Maybe the intent would be new NEOs for Rouge and Mainline (25/15 respectively) and the used 330s into Transat to replace their older 330s. I guess it depends how the proposed Transat merger will shake down. I could also see the current used A330s taking over more domestic flying to compensate for the MAX debacle, routes like YUL-YVR, YYZ-YVR, YUL-YYZ, where single-aisle capacity could be replaced with larger aircraft at the expense of frequency. Then when the single-aisle picture clarifies when a decision on whether or not the MAX flies again (or AC keeps them or not if they do fly again), whatever decisions they make can finally push off the older used 330s.

All wild speculation of course. And while we're dreaming, why not more A220s (500?) and some A321XLRs...

Beech
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:33 am

Favre4 wrote:
jethawk wrote:
Would it be plausible for Virgin Atlantic to take delivery of these birds and lease them to DL?


Why wouldn’t DL just buy them ?


Tariff avoidance? If the planes are transferred to the VS order book and then leased to DL, is DL ever sold the plane for purposes of tariffs against Airbus for a complete plane?
 
codyul
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:47 am

beechnut wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically


Beat me to it! My thought was the same, 25 at Rouge as 767 replacements (having had 2 major delays on Rouge 767s due to mechanical issues in the 4 times I flew Rouge, I'd welcome this), and 15 at mainline.

I also think Boeing would try to entice AC into more 787s as compensation for the MAX. But I suspect AC is really gun-shy about Boeing these days. And the 330 fits nicely for transatlantic and west-coast to east Asia routes. I don't think AC needs any more 787s, too much capability and $ for the A330 missions.

On the other hand AC has just added a bunch of used 330s to their fleet, bringing the total to... gee 15, that fits our math!

Maybe the intent would be new NEOs for Rouge and Mainline (25/15 respectively) and the used 330s into Transat to replace their older 330s. I guess it depends how the proposed Transat merger will shake down. I could also see the current used A330s taking over more domestic flying to compensate for the MAX debacle, routes like YUL-YVR, YYZ-YVR, YUL-YYZ, where single-aisle capacity could be replaced with larger aircraft at the expense of frequency. Then when the single-aisle picture clarifies when a decision on whether or not the MAX flies again (or AC keeps them or not if they do fly again), whatever decisions they make can finally push off the older used 330s.

All wild speculation of course. And while we're dreaming, why not more A220s (500?) and some A321XLRs...

Beech


I'm liking all of this. I think with the MAX out, AC is seeing some positives to larger capacity, less frequency. At least that's what I'm hoping.
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Ishrion
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:14 am

The 40 aircraft were ordered by PLAY :rotfl:
 
MCTSET
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:23 am

codyul wrote:
beechnut wrote:
northstardc4m wrote:
As an off the wall...

Air Canada would fit numerically...

13x 333 at mainline
25x 763 at Rouge

For a total 38... If we discount the 5 remaining mainline 763s (which were supposed to be gone already but not due to MAX8) and it is a nice fit for 40, 25 for Rouge, 15 for Mainline.

TS takeover would be the only complication.... though then ~20 to replace TS 330s, rest for mainline... also fits, leave Rouge 763s alone... but I think its too early for AC to be ordering aircraft to replace anything TS.

Just a speculation...
Just possible numerically


Beat me to it! My thought was the same, 25 at Rouge as 767 replacements (having had 2 major delays on Rouge 767s due to mechanical issues in the 4 times I flew Rouge, I'd welcome this), and 15 at mainline.

I also think Boeing would try to entice AC into more 787s as compensation for the MAX. But I suspect AC is really gun-shy about Boeing these days. And the 330 fits nicely for transatlantic and west-coast to east Asia routes. I don't think AC needs any more 787s, too much capability and $ for the A330 missions.

On the other hand AC has just added a bunch of used 330s to their fleet, bringing the total to... gee 15, that fits our math!

Maybe the intent would be new NEOs for Rouge and Mainline (25/15 respectively) and the used 330s into Transat to replace their older 330s. I guess it depends how the proposed Transat merger will shake down. I could also see the current used A330s taking over more domestic flying to compensate for the MAX debacle, routes like YUL-YVR, YYZ-YVR, YUL-YYZ, where single-aisle capacity could be replaced with larger aircraft at the expense of frequency. Then when the single-aisle picture clarifies when a decision on whether or not the MAX flies again (or AC keeps them or not if they do fly again), whatever decisions they make can finally push off the older used 330s.

All wild speculation of course. And while we're dreaming, why not more A220s (500?) and some A321XLRs...

Beech


I'm liking all of this. I think with the MAX out, AC is seeing some positives to larger capacity, less frequency. At least that's what I'm hoping.



But they have 37 Dreamliner's why do they need NEO’s?
 
Speedalive
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:32 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other wild card is Cathay Pacific (plus Dragon), as they have some ancient A330s (including the first one ever built) that need replacement, along with B773(A) frames that are are 18 years of age or older., this would be a replacement of their ancient A333s (the oldest 25) and the 17 B773(A) frames, OR it could be to move A321s (including the HK Express fleet if reconfigured to Cathay Dragon standards) to A321 routes and move the current A321 routes to A330 service...retiring the ancient A320s and A321s. Cathay Pacific (plus Dragon) has a lot of old planes needing replacement and HK Express, an acquisition recently closed, is probably worth more its fleet than keeping that brand alive.

I wouldn't discount this at all. The A339 would be a good one to one replacement of CX's 28 A333's to save on gas and maintenance. Given their current predicament with the local economy, it might also make sense to effectively downsize by replacing some of the older regional 773's with the remaining 12 NEO's to better match the lowered O/D demand to HKG, while at the same time continuing to replace unprofitable 77W F routes with the more efficient A35K as they've been doing already. I'm not sure if they would replace all 17 773's because three of those frames were acquired from EK just this past year to replace the last of their 772's, so the plane does seem to serve them well. They probably don't need all of that capacity now though, and I'm positive that they did not foresee these protests when they bought them. They could also just split the order with KA. It's anyone's guess really. Perhaps they're waiting for a more opportune time to announce the order and maybe Airbus made CX a sweet deal to buy back some of their newer A330's as part of the deal like when Boeing offered to take Air Canada's E190's for the 737 Max order.

The case for Air Canada also makes sense too, but with the whole TS merger, it seems like a lot is up in the air. It would be neat if this was Onex/WS trying to be more aggressive against AC, especially now that they're a private company, but that feels like a pipe dream.

More than likely, this will probably be something super underwhelming... probably EK, China, or a lessor company, as everyone else has said.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:40 am

MCTSET wrote:
codyul wrote:
beechnut wrote:

Beat me to it! My thought was the same, 25 at Rouge as 767 replacements (having had 2 major delays on Rouge 767s due to mechanical issues in the 4 times I flew Rouge, I'd welcome this), and 15 at mainline.

I also think Boeing would try to entice AC into more 787s as compensation for the MAX. But I suspect AC is really gun-shy about Boeing these days. And the 330 fits nicely for transatlantic and west-coast to east Asia routes. I don't think AC needs any more 787s, too much capability and $ for the A330 missions.

On the other hand AC has just added a bunch of used 330s to their fleet, bringing the total to... gee 15, that fits our math!

Maybe the intent would be new NEOs for Rouge and Mainline (25/15 respectively) and the used 330s into Transat to replace their older 330s. I guess it depends how the proposed Transat merger will shake down. I could also see the current used A330s taking over more domestic flying to compensate for the MAX debacle, routes like YUL-YVR, YYZ-YVR, YUL-YYZ, where single-aisle capacity could be replaced with larger aircraft at the expense of frequency. Then when the single-aisle picture clarifies when a decision on whether or not the MAX flies again (or AC keeps them or not if they do fly again), whatever decisions they make can finally push off the older used 330s.

All wild speculation of course. And while we're dreaming, why not more A220s (500?) and some A321XLRs...

Beech


I'm liking all of this. I think with the MAX out, AC is seeing some positives to larger capacity, less frequency. At least that's what I'm hoping.



But they have 37 Dreamliner's why do they need NEO’s?
It's not an exclusive choice... Different markets suit each type. AC has a fleet of A330-300s as it is that they have recently almost doubled in size (13 in service, 2 more coming) so the separate market in the AC network is there... Buying a fleet of 339s to replace them is a possibility... We aren't saying its likely ( I said off the wall for a reason) but it is possible.

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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:48 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
EMB170 wrote:
My gut reaction was DL as well given the size of their existing A339 order.


It's been asserted that Airbus doesn't include non-binding LOIs in orders. If it's firm, DL needed to disclose it. Two+ weeks have passed since Airbus' order date and DL has no relevant SEC filing, so I'll say it's not DL - with some confidence.

I think Chinese government, with allocations to specific carriers to be firmed later, is the right answer.


Has DL actually completed the LATAM buy? It's a stretch, but could LATAM be buying them on behalf of Delta and Virgin Atlantic?
 
SanDiegoLover
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:24 am

speedbird52 wrote:
Preposterous. It is an Alaska order: They just bought failing carrier JetBlue and are going to set up a hub in LGA. (JFK renovations taking too long) Deltas struggling SEA hub has finally closed, and AS are taking advantage of the gap in the market. No long haul flights from SEA though, everyone knows they always fail...


Don’t be ridiculous! It’s obviously for (SY) Sun Country. They’re getting back into the widebody game! :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
fessor
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Re: Undisclosed customer orders 40 A330 NEO aircraft

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:55 am

What About TG, to replace A330CEO, B777-200, B777-300 and 777-200ER, they have 33.
But then again their financial situation is not the best.

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