umichman
Posts: 78
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Re: UA CLE LGA?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:20 pm

umichman wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Today UA has six daily flights EWR-CLE, in June I see eight daily.


They said they will be using larger jets, so additional capacity will likely not involve much additional frequency. At any rate, they have yet to pull the CLE-LGA/DCA flights from the schedule so it's quite likely additional capacity to EWR/IAD had not been loaded yet as well. I would check things after this weekend and see what aircraft they will be using on these routes in the summer. The current 5 daily ERJ-135/145 50-seater flights on CLE-EWR will likely get upgrades to larger aircraft.


New flights on EWR-CLE have now been loaded and they actually went down from 8 daily flights to 7. However, only 1 is a 50-seater now (vs. 5 flights before). 4 are now mainline and the other 2 are larger RJ's.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: UA CLE LGA?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:40 am

I'm not sure where folks get their stats but the economy in the Cleveland SMSA is not bad at all. In the past 3 months over 3.25 billion dollars of industrial investments have been announced. Real jobs making things.

Here is a simple way to see if an area has money - count the number of wealth management firms (the UBS/Fidelity types) that have branch offices in a city. Fidelity Investments has 2 offices. How many other mid size cities have that?

At yes, we understand that mid size cities all lost hubs with the great airline consolidation. Are CVG, MEM, STL, PIT any different? Is UA a well run company because they are drawing down service from CLE? One airline based in Atlanta who consistently beats UA financially seems to have a different approach to route planning and service to Cleveland. Let's see if anyone fills the gaps.
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    N649DL
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    Re: UA CLE LGA?

    Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:10 am

    WidebodyPTV wrote:
    N649DL wrote:
    Which is a shame considering the retention rate of the CLE hub was near captive. Smisek threw it away due to costs he didn’t want to deal with (he threw CLE under the bus). During the merger ops quite a few CLE routes got upgraded to sUA 757 metal (EG: LAX / MCO) and got canned completely for no reason. He was a true piece of trash as CLE for UA could have functioned like a DL RDU focus city but by that point Oscar and Kirby lost control. Too little too late I suppose.

    E145s to LGA on UA from CLE? Weren’t they 737 or even 757 at one point? Cleveland was price captive like DL at SLC for a small city. Damn shame, no wonder they are trailing to DL no matter what they do.


    CLE was a money losing hub. Per its agreement with UA, Cleveland hired a local accounting firm of its choosing, staffed with people who live and work in the Cleveland area, and the firm affirmed that CLE was a money-losing hub for UA. Some people, including several posters within this thread who've long been vocal about CO's lack of commitment to CLE, then later UA (just review the CLE Wikipedia page as it appeared in the 2000s), and simply cannot accept that the hub wasn't successful.

    UA most definitely did attempt to make CLE a focus city, but the airport saw a surge in service -- since 2013, DL alone has grown to peak week capacity that is equal to nearly 20% of the physical capacity UA/CO had in the hub's later years. People voted against UA with their wallets. Several posters within this thread has been very candid that they will never fly UA again. And FWIW, the managers and executive staff who made the decision to pull the plug on CLE (it's really silly to think that a CEO alone would do that) are largely still with UA. Some of you really need to spend more time researching how decision making works within large corporations...

    If CLE-LGA/DCA were making a lot of money for UA, the routes would be continuing indefinitely.


    I still don't believe this (not you, mainly Smisek's theory for being a choke artist). The average fares on O&D into the CLE were beyond insane on UA, and yes, business folks were paying for it and were completely captive and forking up money for it. With a consolidated near 80% captive load factor for CLE in general for UA, how could you *NOT* make money with high fares?

    For UA, the point-to-point routes out of CLE were almost catered completed to the market and not much for connection use. IIRC, UA was in severe influx mode in retiring mainline aircraft and downsizing and up-sizing in certain markets around this time (hence CO Q400s going to DEN and UA 757s going to CLE.) I'm fully convinced that CLE had the sUA 757 lift for a reason and then to abandon it completely? Nah, I don't think so. This was timed out by Smisek and his team at CLE.

    Recall when CLE got a brief hub build up during the freaking recession at CO in 2009 with flying mainline to places such as CLE-PWM. It's always had potential, and UA pulled out because they didn't anticipate the domestic market was going to boom (and DL did.) The market was there in CLE and UA lost opportunity, IMHO.
     
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    STT757
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    Re: UA CLE LGA?

    Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:21 pm

    DL closed two hubs, CVG and MEM, that cost more jobs than CLE and you’re pointing to them make an argument against closing CLE?

    I would say if closing CVG and MEM made sense why would CLE be different.

    CLE is actually much better off than CVG, MEM, PIT, STL because their traffic numbers are almost back to peak CO hub days. Those high CLE fares didn’t help their traffic numbers, it drive Many to nearby Akron where the LCCs like AirTran set up operations. When UA closed the CLE hub, the second time, the LCCs moved in.

    Akron felt the impact more than CLE.
    Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
     
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    CLEguy
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    Re: UA CLE LGA?

    Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:38 pm

    STT757 wrote:
    CLE is actually much better off than CVG, MEM, PIT, STL because their traffic numbers are almost back to peak CO hub days. Those high CLE fares didn’t help their traffic numbers, it drive Many to nearby Akron where the LCCs like AirTran set up operations. When UA closed the CLE hub, the second time, the LCCs moved in.

    Akron felt the impact more than CLE.


    While CLE has certainly rebounded better than the other former hubs (other than STL thanks to WN), last year's numbers are not yet approaching the peak year for traffic at CLE: 2000, 13,288,059.
     
    MohawkWeekend
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    Re: UA CLE LGA?

    Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:52 pm

    Once the Justice Department allowed all the mergers, CLE's fate was sealed (along with the other small hubs). My point was not that CLE should have remained a hub. I was just noting that UA in markets where it can't compete or chooses not too, Delta can (i.e. CLE to BOS/BDL/LGA). And I wouldn't be suprised soon to be flights to DCA Now why is that?
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      masseybrown
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:20 pm

      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      Once the Justice Department allowed all the mergers, CLE's fate was sealed (along with the other small hubs). My point was not that CLE should have remained a hub. I was just noting that UA in markets where it can't compete or chooses not too, Delta can (i.e. CLE to BOS/BDL/LGA). And I wouldn't be suprised soon to be flights to DCA Now why is that?


      An interesting fallout from UA hub action: both Frontier and Delta were VERY quick to announce replacement services and they got a LOT of free favorable publicity and lasting good will in Cleveland out of it If anybody's going to add LGA or DCA filghts, prompt action might once again be worth it..
       
      Rdh3e
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:32 pm

      N649DL wrote:
      WidebodyPTV wrote:

      CLE was a money losing hub. Per its agreement with UA, Cleveland hired a local accounting firm of its choosing, staffed with people who live and work in the Cleveland area, and the firm affirmed that CLE was a money-losing hub for UA.


      I still don't believe this (not you, mainly Smisek's theory for being a choke artist).

      Who to trust? The CPAs or your gut? Gee, such a difficult choice... :banghead:
       
      ncflyer
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:12 pm

      CPAs aren’t trained in cost accounting, not at all. No CPA exam for that. Easy to route certain types of traffic connecting over CLE, less efficient aircraft, burden CLE cost accounting with the sunk cost of D which was planned for a bigger hub, etc. you’re waaaaaaaay too trusting of three letters behind people’s names.
       
      N649DL
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:04 am

      masseybrown wrote:
      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      Once the Justice Department allowed all the mergers, CLE's fate was sealed (along with the other small hubs). My point was not that CLE should have remained a hub. I was just noting that UA in markets where it can't compete or chooses not too, Delta can (i.e. CLE to BOS/BDL/LGA). And I wouldn't be suprised soon to be flights to DCA Now why is that?


      An interesting fallout from UA hub action: both Frontier and Delta were VERY quick to announce replacement services and they got a LOT of free favorable publicity and lasting good will in Cleveland out of it If anybody's going to add LGA or DCA filghts, prompt action might once again be worth it..


      DL was also very quick to add some CLE routes once UA dropped them. IIRC, CLE-BDL and RDU were two of them.

      This tells you all you need to know from Wiki as to how hasty the closure of the UA hub at CLE was: "United also closed Concourse D and consolidated all of its remaining operations in Concourse C, although it is required to continue to pay the airport $1,112,482 a month in rent for the facility until 2027."

      Now if that's not stupidity by UA, IDK what is.
       
      airlinewatcher1
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:08 am

      STT757 wrote:
      DL closed two hubs, CVG and MEM, that cost more jobs than CLE and you’re pointing to them make an argument against closing CLE?

      I would say if closing CVG and MEM made sense why would CLE be different.

      CLE is actually much better off than CVG, MEM, PIT, STL because their traffic numbers are almost back to peak CO hub days. Those high CLE fares didn’t help their traffic numbers, it drive Many to nearby Akron where the LCCs like AirTran set up operations. When UA closed the CLE hub, the second time, the LCCs moved in.

      Akron felt the impact more than CLE.


      While DL was downsizing CVG and MEM, they were building up aggressively in airports such as LAX, SEA, LGA/JFK. And now, BOS and RDU. UA also further retreated in LAX during that time period.

      I'd also say that CVG remains a respectable focus city for DL even now. I'm not sure why CVG can still work as a strong focus city for DL, but not CLE for UA. Also, when UA exited some routes from CLE such as BOS, DL was the first to come in.

      I've only seen UA stay focused on hub and spoke flying, or retreat. Very little or no point-to-point routes or venturing into new hubs/focus cities. Now UA is aggressively defending and expanding in current hubs, particularly DEN. I feel like they should have done that long ago. I hope the strategy proves successful. I don't see UA doing any non-hub flying any time soon.
       
      N649DL
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:17 am

      airlinewatcher1 wrote:
      STT757 wrote:
      DL closed two hubs, CVG and MEM, that cost more jobs than CLE and you’re pointing to them make an argument against closing CLE?

      I would say if closing CVG and MEM made sense why would CLE be different.

      CLE is actually much better off than CVG, MEM, PIT, STL because their traffic numbers are almost back to peak CO hub days. Those high CLE fares didn’t help their traffic numbers, it drive Many to nearby Akron where the LCCs like AirTran set up operations. When UA closed the CLE hub, the second time, the LCCs moved in.

      Akron felt the impact more than CLE.


      While DL was downsizing CVG and MEM, they were building up aggressively in airports such as LAX, SEA, LGA/JFK. And now, BOS and RDU. UA also further retreated in LAX during that time period.

      I'd also say that CVG remains a respectable focus city for DL even now. I'm not sure why CVG can still work as a strong focus city for DL, but not CLE for UA. Also, when UA exited some routes from CLE such as BOS, DL was the first to come in.

      I've only seen UA stay focused on hub and spoke flying, or retreat. Very little or no point-to-point routes or venturing into new hubs/focus cities. Now UA is aggressively defending and expanding in current hubs, particularly DEN. I feel like they should have done that long ago. I hope the strategy proves successful. I don't see UA doing any non-hub flying any time soon.


      Absolutely right. DEN and IAD are both different stories at UA. UA was apparently willing to completely ditch IAD as a hub and downsize DEN back in the day (in favor of IAH). DEN came in with tax incentives, and IAD was downsized and in the nick of time was only retained as a strong hub in the last few years (likely because they realized EWR absolutely sucked for TATL connections with reliability). Both hubs were saved and CLE was dumped during this time. CLE was along the stupid trimming decisions like UA dumping JFK and only wanting to crawl their way back in once Kirby came aboard. Really useless cost cutting while DL knew the US domestic market for profitability was coming back and ate UA's lunch in this regard.

      DL at CVG is a different story. They realized they cut too much and actually added back and is still a Focus City or borderline Hub. There's been a considerable amount of frequencies added and/or mainline upgrades and some routes even brought back from the dead (like CVG-DEN.) I'm still confused as to why UA hasn't done this at CLE, or at other large spokes for PTP routes like DL does. For UA that would be FLL, MCO, SAT, AUS, BOS and CLE. UA seems to be hellbent on hub and spoke configuration(s) and not focus cities.
       
      strfyr51
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:38 am

      ncflyer wrote:
      That’s a comment that misses the point. If a passenger can fly basic economy on AA or DL with a bag, over UA without one, why wouldn’t they? I’ve stopped flying UA in CLE when I have a choice and won’t miss them if these rumors are true.

      Looks like sour Grapes... UA cut cle as a hub years ago in favor of bulking up ORD. Once S-CO merged? I think CLE was new signs of life But the plan remained the same. Cle is a good station but I have no idea why they believe it's any more Important than PHL, BOS, or ATL to UA. It probably is a good line station as it always has been to UA. But a HUB? Not likely, It might be a great hub for one of the other smaller carriers though...
       
      MohawkWeekend
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      Re: UA CLE LGA?

      Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:48 am

      I guess the market will show whose management is better (DL vs UA). Right now which airline leads on stock appreciation, profitability, and customer satisfaction? I sure hope DL continues to add service to CLE. Really - who wants to connect in ORD or EWR in the winter?
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        HVNandrew
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:48 am

        ncflyer wrote:
        CPAs aren’t trained in cost accounting, not at all. No CPA exam for that. Easy to route certain types of traffic connecting over CLE, less efficient aircraft, burden CLE cost accounting with the sunk cost of D which was planned for a bigger hub, etc. you’re waaaaaaaay too trusting of three letters behind people’s names.

        Huh? Cost accounting as absolutely tested on the BEC section of the CPA exam in the US. And any accounting program is going to have a mandatory managerial/cost accounting course as one of its requirements.

        Your average auditor is probably not going to be a cost accounting whiz, but any large accounting firm is going to have people who are on staff (and a lot of them will be CPAs).
         
        WidebodyPTV
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:18 am

        N649DL wrote:
        WidebodyPTV wrote:
        N649DL wrote:
        Which is a shame considering the retention rate of the CLE hub was near captive. Smisek threw it away due to costs he didn’t want to deal with (he threw CLE under the bus). During the merger ops quite a few CLE routes got upgraded to sUA 757 metal (EG: LAX / MCO) and got canned completely for no reason. He was a true piece of trash as CLE for UA could have functioned like a DL RDU focus city but by that point Oscar and Kirby lost control. Too little too late I suppose.

        E145s to LGA on UA from CLE? Weren’t they 737 or even 757 at one point? Cleveland was price captive like DL at SLC for a small city. Damn shame, no wonder they are trailing to DL no matter what they do.


        CLE was a money losing hub. Per its agreement with UA, Cleveland hired a local accounting firm of its choosing, staffed with people who live and work in the Cleveland area, and the firm affirmed that CLE was a money-losing hub for UA. Some people, including several posters within this thread who've long been vocal about CO's lack of commitment to CLE, then later UA (just review the CLE Wikipedia page as it appeared in the 2000s), and simply cannot accept that the hub wasn't successful.

        UA most definitely did attempt to make CLE a focus city, but the airport saw a surge in service -- since 2013, DL alone has grown to peak week capacity that is equal to nearly 20% of the physical capacity UA/CO had in the hub's later years. People voted against UA with their wallets. Several posters within this thread has been very candid that they will never fly UA again. And FWIW, the managers and executive staff who made the decision to pull the plug on CLE (it's really silly to think that a CEO alone would do that) are largely still with UA. Some of you really need to spend more time researching how decision making works within large corporations...

        If CLE-LGA/DCA were making a lot of money for UA, the routes would be continuing indefinitely.


        I still don't believe this (not you, mainly Smisek's theory for being a choke artist). The average fares on O&D into the CLE were beyond insane on UA, and yes, business folks were paying for it and were completely captive and forking up money for it. With a consolidated near 80% captive load factor for CLE in general for UA, how could you *NOT* make money with high fares?

        For UA, the point-to-point routes out of CLE were almost catered completed to the market and not much for connection use. IIRC, UA was in severe influx mode in retiring mainline aircraft and downsizing and up-sizing in certain markets around this time (hence CO Q400s going to DEN and UA 757s going to CLE.) I'm fully convinced that CLE had the sUA 757 lift for a reason and then to abandon it completely? Nah, I don't think so. This was timed out by Smisek and his team at CLE.

        Recall when CLE got a brief hub build up during the freaking recession at CO in 2009 with flying mainline to places such as CLE-PWM. It's always had potential, and UA pulled out because they didn't anticipate the domestic market was going to boom (and DL did.) The market was there in CLE and UA lost opportunity, IMHO.


        It’s a pretty simple explanation - CLE was a high cost operation - remember, most of its service was on small regional jets, and with just three flight banks, its labor productivity suffered.

        And the late 2000s buildup you’re referring to was a derivative of upgauging at EWR, which made a bunch of 44- and 50- seat jets redundant. Cleveland, which was vying with Houston for the additional flights, had agree to a large incentive package in order to secure the additional flights. CO pulled the plug on the expansion, anyway, when the economy continued to tank and fuel costs swelled. If you’re interested in learning more, Plain Dealer covered it fairly well and last I checked, articles were easily accessible through a Google search. But it’s not the smoking gun that some a.netters have insisted for years - it was simply away to get some revenue for a bunch of planes that would’ve otherwise been parked, with CLE providing incentive package.

        Some users need to accept reality. Gordon Bethune first publicly complained about the hub in the early 2000s, claiming Clevelanders weren’t supporting it and Cleveland wasn’t “owed” a hub. Later, credible reports had CO interested in bidding on ATA’s MDW assets, as a replacement option. Jeff Semisk didn’t close a profitable hub because he is a lunatic. It had been losing money for years, and professional who lived and worked in Cleveland affirmed it.
         
        WidebodyPTV
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:40 am

        ncflyer wrote:
        CPAs aren’t trained in cost accounting, not at all. No CPA exam for that. Easy to route certain types of traffic connecting over CLE, less efficient aircraft, burden CLE cost accounting with the sunk cost of D which was planned for a bigger hub, etc. you’re waaaaaaaay too trusting of three letters behind people’s names.


        Silly. If you’re a financial accountant, you have to know where the numbers came from, so you have to have a sound understanding of cost accounting.

        Most of BEC, one of the four CPA exam sections, is cost accounting. Previously, it was tested within financial. Having a cpa license generally triumphs all others, including cma.
         
        avtcle
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:45 am

        The thing is a lot of the blame does fall on the airline. They have to look at it from an operational standpoint: obviously a hub isn’t going to to be successful when service to key markets like SAN, SEA, PDX, SLC, LHR were seasonal, low-frequency or non-existent. Obviously Cleveland didn’t have enough demand to support all the regional service provided, but the point of the Cleveland hub for Continental was indeed capturing connections from smaller, Midwest and east coast cities and offering them connections to 90+ cities, including LGW, CDG for a time. Once you trim that schedule and shrink the banks, and close so many routes, you’re going to start losing money. Cleveland was never meant to be a hub with 20-30 million passengers a year, it was designed and used as a domestic transfer hub, which was successful for them for awhile. Between 1998-2008 the airline was carrying anywhere from 7-10 million people per year through Cleveland. While that’s seems like a smaller number in comparison to other hubs, it’s because Cleveland was designed specifically to serve as a regional jet hub, which proved to be uneconomical as the economy turned bad. Today it could be viable again, but the Continental/United merger just happened at the wrong time for CLE. Economic conditions were poor, and the Cleveland operation was the most uneconomical because of the design of the hub operation, not the fault of Cleveland. The fault falls on the airline.
         
        jplatts
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:04 pm

        N649DL wrote:
        While DL was downsizing CVG and MEM, they were building up aggressively in airports such as LAX, SEA, LGA/JFK. And now, BOS and RDU. UA also further retreated in LAX during that time period.

        I'd also say that CVG remains a respectable focus city for DL even now. I'm not sure why CVG can still work as a strong focus city for DL, but not CLE for UA. Also, when UA exited some routes from CLE such as BOS, DL was the first to come in.

        DL at CVG is a different story. They realized they cut too much and actually added back and is still a Focus City or borderline Hub. There's been a considerable amount of frequencies added and/or mainline upgrades and some routes even brought back from the dead (like CVG-DEN.) I'm still confused as to why UA hasn't done this at CLE, or at other large spokes for PTP routes like DL does. For UA that would be FLL, MCO, SAT, AUS, BOS and CLE. UA seems to be hellbent on hub and spoke configuration(s) and not focus cities.


        One big difference between CVG and CLE is that DL still has nonstop service out of CVG to some non-hub destinations outside of Florida such as AUS, BWI, CLT, ORD, DFW, DEN, BDL, IAH, MCI, LAS, EWR, PHL, RDU, STL, SFO, YYZ, and DCA, whereas UA's remaining nonstop routes out of CLE will be to hubs or Florida destinations once UA discontinues CLE-LGA and CLE-DCA nonstop service.

        DL also currently doesn't have any nonstop competition on its CVG-BDL, CVG-MCI, CVG-RDU, CVG-STL, or CVG-SFO nonstop routes, whereas UA has nonstop competition on most of its remaining nonstop routes out of CLE. DL is also currently the only airline serving its BOS, DTW, SLC, and SEA hubs nonstop from CVG.

        Houston is also the only remaining market that is served nonstop out of CLE on UA but not on any of its competitors, even though WN had previously stated that it was considering adding CLE-HOU nonstop service.
         
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        STT757
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm

        CVG went from 22 million passengers per year to 9 million. They got screwed, regardless of DL operating some regional jet destinations.

        CLE is within striking distance now of the peak CO hub years. In fact they’re probably handling more
        O&D passengers than they ever have today. Those previous peak years for CLE were built on connecting traffic. Their numbers today is all O&D.

        Fares are lower, and it’s all mainline growth from Frontier, Spirit etc..


        Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
        Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
         
        MohawkWeekend
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        Re: UA CLE LGA?

        Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:19 pm

        Rotating back to the original topic. Do we expect DL to add DCA to CLE or will AA add more frequency?
        And for those not from CLE - this area has a ton of Federal employees. (2nd Largest VA hospital in the nation, FBI regional Office, USCG Ninth District Headquarters, US Navy Payroll HQ). Add in normal corporate travel for area based companies and lobbying efforts.
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          blockski
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          Re: UA CLE LGA?

          Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:23 pm

          N649DL wrote:
          I'm still confused as to why UA hasn't done this at CLE, or at other large spokes for PTP routes like DL does. For UA that would be FLL, MCO, SAT, AUS, BOS and CLE. UA seems to be hellbent on hub and spoke configuration(s) and not focus cities.


          There's no confusion at all. United's domestic network after the merger and the post-merger shrinkage was the smallest of the US3. Since Kirby arrived, his publicly stated goal has been to grow United's domestic network to reach their 'natural share' of the market. And, given the constraints United faces (fleet, cost, competition, etc) as well as the then-underperformance of many of UA's hubs in large, lucrative markets, the strategy of growing hubs and defining a network role for each one was obvious. And that's been United's top priority.

          Because those hubs are United's top priority, that means they're diverting resources to those markets and away from marginal ones.

          Now, why is Delta expanding focus cities, but not United? Because Delta's domestic hubs are already quite secure and mature. Likewise, I'd imagine lots of Delta's focus city expansion has fairly low margins. DL has strategic reasons for doing so, but United's incentives are not the same.
           
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          Midwestindy
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          Re: UA CLE LGA?

          Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:27 pm

          MohawkWeekend wrote:
          Rotating back to the original topic. Do we expect DL to add DCA to CLE or will AA add more frequency?
          And for those not from CLE - this area has a ton of Federal employees. (2nd Largest VA hospital in the nation, FBI regional Office, USCG Ninth District Headquarters, US Navy Payroll HQ). Add in normal corporate travel for area based companies and lobbying efforts.


          Why would DL add DCA-CLE?

          Regardless of the fact they don't have the slots to do so, they don't serve CLE-LAX/SEA and CLE is a relatively small station for them.
          Federal employees are not lucrative, they travel on heavily discounted fares. The lucrative customers going to DCA are the corporate clients & lobbyists flying for work in DC.
          Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
           
          User avatar
          STT757
          Posts: 13981
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          Re: UA CLE LGA?

          Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:34 pm

          Getting back to the original topic, still no idea where the LGA slots are going. The fact that they had a announcement for the DCA slots but not the
          LGA slots is interesting. It’s has to be one of the following:

          1. Additional hub frequencies, but this hasn’t shown up yet
          2. New PTP route
          3. Lease, sold Or traded to another carrier


          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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          MohawkWeekend
          Posts: 59
          Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

          Re: UA CLE LGA?

          Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:36 pm

          Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

          We'll see.
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            jplatts
            Posts: 3332
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            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:37 pm

            MohawkWeekend wrote:
            Rotating back to the original topic. Do we expect DL to add DCA to CLE or will AA add more frequency?
            And for those not from CLE - this area has a ton of Federal employees. (2nd Largest VA hospital in the nation, FBI regional Office, USCG Ninth District Headquarters, US Navy Payroll HQ). Add in normal corporate travel for area based companies and lobbying efforts.


            WN adding CLE-DCA nonstop service is a possibility if it had enough slots at DCA, but WN is unlikely to add CLE-DCA nonstop service due to WN already using its DCA slots on other nonstop routes.

            DL is unlikely to add CLE-DCA nonstop service due to DL having to reduce frequencies on other nonstop routes out of DCA in order to add DCA-BOS nonstop service and with DL already using its DCA slots on other nonstop routes out of DCA. DL also operates its DCA-LEX/MSN/OMA nonstop routes using slots that cannot be used on other nonstop routes.

            AA upgauging CLE-DCA nonstop service might be a possibility if more capacity is needed on the CLE-DCA nonstop route after UA discontinues CLE-DCA nonstop service.
             
            blockski
            Posts: 656
            Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:30 pm

            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:41 pm

            MohawkWeekend wrote:
            Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

            We'll see.


            With what DCA slots would Delta start service to CLE?
             
            tphuang
            Posts: 3908
            Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:52 pm

            MohawkWeekend wrote:
            Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

            We'll see.

            who told you they are making money on CLE-BOS/BDL?
             
            fun2fly
            Posts: 1551
            Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 8:44 am

            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:30 pm

            STT757 wrote:
            Getting back to the original topic, still no idea where the LGA slots are going. The fact that they had a announcement for the DCA slots but not the
            LGA slots is interesting. It’s has to be one of the following:

            1. Additional hub frequencies, but this hasn’t shown up yet
            2. New PTP route
            3. Lease, sold Or traded to another carrier

            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


            One #3, sale or lease to someone else, could they sell to AA or DL and get back slots at JFK? AA has been moving ops to PHL. Pure guess, no facts.
             
            plinth857
            Posts: 140
            Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:37 pm

            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:44 pm

            jplatts wrote:
            AA upgauging CLE-DCA nonstop service might be a possibility if more capacity is needed on the CLE-DCA nonstop route after UA discontinues CLE-DCA nonstop service.


            I think this is the most likely outcome after the cuts. Some additional capacity will be needed as this is the largest market for government flights in and out of Cleveland. AA will likely be awarded the GSA contract for the next fiscal year and this may not bring in a huge amount of money, but it will increase the amount of passengers AA will carry on this route. I expect them to either add another 50 seater on the route, or upgauge their current daily service to larger regional aircraft (right now it's two CRJ200's and an E175 per day).
             
            masseybrown
            Posts: 5444
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            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:12 pm

            plinth857 wrote:
            jplatts wrote:
            AA upgauging CLE-DCA nonstop service might be a possibility if more capacity is needed on the CLE-DCA nonstop route after UA discontinues CLE-DCA nonstop service.


            I think this is the most likely outcome after the cuts ... I expect them to either add another 50 seater on the route, or upgauge their current daily service to larger regional aircraft (right now it's two CRJ200's and an E175 per day).


            UA was offering 5 flights a day and running ~70% loads, meaning ~175 pax PDEW. One additional 50-seater from AA isn't going to do it. It'll have to be more than that or the Pennsylvania Turnpike will be the main beneficiary. Of course, that's happened before, too.
             
            plinth857
            Posts: 140
            Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:37 pm

            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:17 pm

            masseybrown wrote:
            plinth857 wrote:
            jplatts wrote:
            AA upgauging CLE-DCA nonstop service might be a possibility if more capacity is needed on the CLE-DCA nonstop route after UA discontinues CLE-DCA nonstop service.


            I think this is the most likely outcome after the cuts ... I expect them to either add another 50 seater on the route, or upgauge their current daily service to larger regional aircraft (right now it's two CRJ200's and an E175 per day).


            UA was offering 5 flights a day and running ~70% loads, meaning ~175 pax PDEW. One additional 50-seater from AA isn't going to do it. It'll have to be more than that or the Pennsylvania Turnpike will be the main beneficiary. Of course, that's happened before, too.


            I don't disagree, but I'm not sure AA's regionals have the aircraft to do this. I wonder if they'd consider one mainline per day? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
             
            MohawkWeekend
            Posts: 59
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            Re: UA CLE LGA?

            Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:55 pm

            And I ask - Who told you they aren't making money on BOS/BDL? Do you think they could run money losing flights and still have the ability to pay those record bonuses ? If I worked for UA , I'd be pretty jealous of those Delta employees.
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              Detroit313
              Posts: 410
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              Re: UA CLE LGA?

              Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:10 pm

              Time for AA to add more Cleveland to DCA.
               
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              jetblastdubai
              Posts: 1900
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              Re: UA CLE LGA?

              Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:17 pm

              STT757 wrote:
              Getting back to the original topic, still no idea where the LGA slots are going.

              1. Additional hub frequencies, but this hasn’t shown up yet
              2. New PTP route
              3. Lease, sold Or traded to another carrier



              Never say "never" but I'd be very surprised if UA (or anyone not on the verge of liquidation) would ever voluntarily give up LGA slots. If the rumor is true that UA would like to get back into JFK eventually, shrinking their NYC footprint would make no sense. DEN and IAH are each at approx. 8 LGA trips each weekday. If all or most of the slots went to DEN, they could just about have an hourly shuttle and really cover the entire west coast and mountain west regions.
               
              tphuang
              Posts: 3908
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              Re: UA CLE LGA?

              Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:22 pm

              MohawkWeekend wrote:
              And I ask - Who told you they aren't making money on BOS/BDL? Do you think they could run money losing flights and still have the ability to pay those record bonuses ? If I worked for UA , I'd be pretty jealous of those Delta employees.

              They are definitely not making money on BOS-CLE. I can tell you that. And yes, a healthy network has plenty of money losing routes too.
               
              FSDan
              Posts: 2889
              Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

              Re: UA CLE LGA?

              Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:25 pm

              tphuang wrote:
              MohawkWeekend wrote:
              Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

              We'll see.

              who told you they are making money on CLE-BOS/BDL?


              Regarding CLE-BDL, I don't know why DL would keep flying it if it wasn't making money. Neither CLE nor BDL are strategically important to DL in the way that BOS is. I'd believe that BOS-CLE is a marginal route for DL at best, although it might provide some good feed to the growing transatlantic network ex BOS.
              This is my signature until I think of a better one.
               
              MohawkWeekend
              Posts: 59
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              Re: UA CLE LGA?

              Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:01 pm

              Question for Midwest Indy - you seem to have a pretty good handle on route revenue. Is it your opinion (or knowledge) that Delta loses money between CLE and BOS? For that matter BDL too?
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                tphuang
                Posts: 3908
                Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

                Re: UA CLE LGA?

                Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:11 pm

                MohawkWeekend wrote:
                Question for Midwest Indy - you seem to have a pretty good handle on route revenue. Is it your opinion (or knowledge) that Delta loses money between CLE and BOS? For that matter BDL too?

                dude, I've been posting all the BOS numbers. BOS-CLE is without a doubt a vastly underperforming route for DL. UA's yield before they quit was over 30% higher than what DL has been getting (albeit on a 50 seater vs 76 seater). I don't care enough about BDL to look at it. But on your part, there is no reason for reason to assume that it's even a system average route without if you don't have the data to back it up.

                Alright, this is what I got for Q3 for DL, which was a very good quarter for BOS
                CLE-LGA, avg fare (for non-stop itinerary) $219. LF - 72.53%
                CLE-DTW, avg fare (for non-stop) $217, LF - 82.66%
                CLE-BOS, avg fare( for non-stop) $166, LF - 86.76%
                CLE-BDL, avg fare (for non-stop) $181, LF - 65.28%

                Keep in mind, BOS is the longest route and BDL is the second longest. I presume LGA fares are going up after this.
                 
                umichman
                Posts: 78
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                Re: UA CLE LGA?

                Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:26 pm

                STT757 wrote:
                CVG went from 22 million passengers per year to 9 million. They got screwed, regardless of DL operating some regional jet destinations.

                CLE is within striking distance now of the peak CO hub years. In fact they’re probably handling more
                O&D passengers than they ever have today. Those previous peak years for CLE were built on connecting traffic. Their numbers today is all O&D.

                Fares are lower, and it’s all mainline growth from Frontier, Spirit etc..

                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro



                You are missing the fact that the DL CVG hub was significantly larger than the CO/UA hub at CLE which largely accounts for the disparity. DL got up to 600 daily flights at CVG while CO/UA at CLE was maxing at about 250. CVG also has had a number of new LCC/ULCC entrants in recent years. It's doing just fine for the size of the O&D market.
                 
                MohawkWeekend
                Posts: 59
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                Re: UA CLE LGA?

                Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:32 pm

                How do we know how much it costs the carrier to make that flight? Rough calculation is a revenue of $10,000 for a 1 hour flight.
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                  PSU.DTW.SCE
                  Posts: 7487
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                  Re: UA CLE LGA?

                  Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:30 pm

                  BDL-CLE likely exists for DL because of a few large BDL based corporate accounts that do a lot of business with DL. This may be a loss leader to get their broader and more lucrative travel spend.
                   
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                  Midwestindy
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                  Re: UA CLE LGA?

                  Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:10 pm

                  MohawkWeekend wrote:
                  Question for Midwest Indy - you seem to have a pretty good handle on route revenue. Is it your opinion (or knowledge) that Delta loses money between CLE and BOS? For that matter BDL too?


                  Based on the cost data I have, both routes appear to be performing below break even, with BDL-CLE likely doing better if they could get more passengers to fly the route. BOS-CLE is a brand new route as well, so judging the financial performance of the route is premature

                  FSDan wrote:
                  tphuang wrote:
                  MohawkWeekend wrote:
                  Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

                  We'll see.

                  who told you they are making money on CLE-BOS/BDL?


                  Regarding CLE-BDL, I don't know why DL would keep flying it if it wasn't making money. Neither CLE nor BDL are strategically important to DL in the way that BOS is. I'd believe that BOS-CLE is a marginal route for DL at best, although it might provide some good feed to the growing transatlantic network ex BOS.


                  I believe it has been mentioned in the past, but the consensus has been that BDL-CLE exists to serve a large corporate customer, likely United Technologies or Eaton (can't remember which one).
                  Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
                   
                  MohawkWeekend
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                  Re: UA CLE LGA?

                  Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:33 pm

                  Thanks Midwestindy !
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                    N649DL
                    Posts: 731
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                    Re: UA CLE LGA?

                    Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:41 pm

                    tphuang wrote:
                    MohawkWeekend wrote:
                    Because DL can make money on a route UA couldn't? (like replacing UA to BOS and BDL and loading up flights to DTW to steal the connecting traffic away from UA). Delta runs ad's in the Cleveland market that state they want to be Cleveland's business airline.

                    We'll see.

                    who told you they are making money on CLE-BOS/BDL?


                    DL's CLE-BDL have been around for 5+ years and were added right after UA closed the CLE hub. Likely some corporate contract or two keeps that route going. I too also thought that route was doomed when it started (it's real PTP oddball route) but it's still around.
                     
                    N649DL
                    Posts: 731
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                    Re: UA CLE LGA?

                    Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:54 pm

                    blockski wrote:
                    N649DL wrote:
                    I'm still confused as to why UA hasn't done this at CLE, or at other large spokes for PTP routes like DL does. For UA that would be FLL, MCO, SAT, AUS, BOS and CLE. UA seems to be hellbent on hub and spoke configuration(s) and not focus cities.


                    Now, why is Delta expanding focus cities, but not United? Because Delta's domestic hubs are already quite secure and mature. Likewise, I'd imagine lots of Delta's focus city expansion has fairly low margins. DL has strategic reasons for doing so, but United's incentives are not the same.


                    Aside SEA, this I actually doubt. DL has grown very conservatively and maturely at RDU is being really smart about BOS by having feed to it's secondary TATL hub. This was actually a goal for them back when they opened the BOS terminal but plans got shelved IIRC because they just out of BK and merging with NW and didn't take the risk. They focused on NYC instead back in the day.

                    Now for these so-called "Focus Cities" that don't exist on DL yet such as SJC and AUS (where they have a much lower presence), those could be a huge bloodbath for them. Probably why they held off on expanding them after the Press Release.
                     
                    tphuang
                    Posts: 3908
                    Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

                    Re: UA CLE LGA?

                    Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:07 am

                    N649DL wrote:
                    blockski wrote:
                    N649DL wrote:
                    I'm still confused as to why UA hasn't done this at CLE, or at other large spokes for PTP routes like DL does. For UA that would be FLL, MCO, SAT, AUS, BOS and CLE. UA seems to be hellbent on hub and spoke configuration(s) and not focus cities.


                    Now, why is Delta expanding focus cities, but not United? Because Delta's domestic hubs are already quite secure and mature. Likewise, I'd imagine lots of Delta's focus city expansion has fairly low margins. DL has strategic reasons for doing so, but United's incentives are not the same.


                    Aside SEA, this I actually doubt. DL has grown very conservatively and maturely at RDU is being really smart about BOS by having feed to it's secondary TATL hub. This was actually a goal for them back when they opened the BOS terminal but plans got shelved IIRC because they just out of BK and merging with NW and didn't take the risk. They focused on NYC instead back in the day.

                    Now for these so-called "Focus Cities" that don't exist on DL yet such as SJC and AUS (where they have a much lower presence), those could be a huge bloodbath for them. Probably why they held off on expanding them after the Press Release.

                    the margins at BOS is definitely currently lower than SEA. One could argue that's expected since they are at an earlier stage in the buildup. Either way, it's a huge bloodbath up there. RDU really has very low margins too.

                    People keep making DL out to be geniuses and everyone else out to be stupid. That's not the case, every airline has to build to its strength. UA doesn't need new hubs when it's existing hubs are all at great locations. They said it themselves in earning calls.
                     
                    MohawkWeekend
                    Posts: 59
                    Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

                    Re: UA CLE LGA?

                    Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:36 am

                    2nd Question for Midwestindy - In your estimation, how much revenue would a flight need to have to cover direct and indirect costs to breakeven? Using the DCA - CLE example a flight run by Republic on a 170 with 70 seats. About 1 hour block time. Thanks!
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                      STT757
                      Posts: 13981
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                      UA CLE LGA?

                      Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:05 am

                      tphuang wrote:
                      N649DL wrote:
                      blockski wrote:

                      Now, why is Delta expanding focus cities, but not United? Because Delta's domestic hubs are already quite secure and mature. Likewise, I'd imagine lots of Delta's focus city expansion has fairly low margins. DL has strategic reasons for doing so, but United's incentives are not the same.


                      Aside SEA, this I actually doubt. DL has grown very conservatively and maturely at RDU is being really smart about BOS by having feed to it's secondary TATL hub. This was actually a goal for them back when they opened the BOS terminal but plans got shelved IIRC because they just out of BK and merging with NW and didn't take the risk. They focused on NYC instead back in the day.

                      Now for these so-called "Focus Cities" that don't exist on DL yet such as SJC and AUS (where they have a much lower presence), those could be a huge bloodbath for them. Probably why they held off on expanding them after the Press Release.

                      the margins at BOS is definitely currently lower than SEA. One could argue that's expected since they are at an earlier stage in the buildup. Either way, it's a huge bloodbath up there. RDU really has very low margins too.

                      People keep making DL out to be geniuses and everyone else out to be stupid. That's not the case, every airline has to build to its strength. UA doesn't need new hubs when it's existing hubs are all at great locations. They said it themselves in earning calls.


                      I wonder if Denver’s remarkable growth, especially the United hub, is going to have a negative impact on DL’s Salt Lake City hub. I know they’re investing in new facilities there, but the growth factor of Denver has to be be of concern to DL.

                      Might they need to start putting some investments of more flying into SLC and away from SEA? Especially in light of DL’s continues sub par performance in Asia post Narita closure and Korean air venture.


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
                      Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
                       
                      EADSYABSOB73857
                      Posts: 58
                      Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:35 pm

                      Re: UA CLE LGA?

                      Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:23 am

                      tphuang wrote:
                      the margins at BOS is definitely currently lower than SEA. One could argue that's expected since they are at an earlier stage in the buildup. Either way, it's a huge bloodbath up there. RDU really has very low margins too.

                      People keep making DL out to be geniuses and everyone else out to be stupid. That's not the case, every airline has to build to its strength. UA doesn't need new hubs when it's existing hubs are all at great locations. They said it themselves in earning calls.


                      I haven’t been on this forum long, but I’ve consistently noticed that; while you post very valid data that gives much insight to route profits, you have a strong bias and continuously bash DL, more than anyone else. You tend to focus on one station (mostly BOS) and base your opinion of DL on that and for their actions in that market- I’ve followed your posts. The truth is; DL is the most profitable airline in the world (above AA, UA, AS, and B6- and there’s concrete data to back that up). And, data has shown that BOS has actually become more profitable for DL- which aligns with their goal from the onset. You like to focus on 5-6 regional markets out of BOS and state that BOS’ DL operation is ‘tanking’ from a profitability standpoint. Now I am agnostic; I’m actually a Wall Street industry analyst and you can see in my history I’ve written and defended other airlines (including B6).. but the fact of the matter is that: a) when any airline builds a new hub, they will take hits against their profitability for a multitude of reasons- most common historical reasons are they are either flooding a market in order to build their position, and/or other airlines are defending their share- every major US airline has been in this situation, I can pull industry data and show you if you’d like- it’s not only consistent with DL, BOS, and SEA..

                      One recent example- B6 BUF-BOS is down to 3x daily- 1 year ago it was 5-6x daily.. so yes, BOS-BUF may be one of DL’s worst performing routes, the point is, B6 has reduced flights (from 6 down to 5, then from 5 down to 3)- simple wisdom is that if BOS-BUF wasn’t so poor performing this would not be the case (a reduction in flights).. plain and simple. Looks like DL won the battle here and set out exactly what they were trying to achieve (cut into frequencies and reduce route frequencies from existing carriers/routes- plain and simple).

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