TTailedTiger
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Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:22 am

I've always had an interest in private jets and it seems pretty much every article about the Learjet over the past few years hasn't painted a very a bright picture of its future. The sales certainly haven't been that great lately. And parent company Bombardier isn't in good health at all with their selling off everything they can. C Series, CRJ, and Q Series are all gone. I have to wonder how long they can keep the private jet division afloat. It's a shame because the Learjet is a great looking jet with performance to match. What is turning buyers away? Are they afraid their new jet might be without support in the near future?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:49 pm

BBD’s business jet line is doing pretty well, but not the Learjet—12-14 deliveries per year. The small bizjets are a “Red Sea”; too many models chasing customers. The large category has fewer models (Gulfstream and BBD Challenger and Global); more stable clientele and is more profitable.

The Lear’s failing is field performance especially on wet runways. A 350 or Global is better there, esp the Global.

GF
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:10 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
BBD’s business jet line is doing pretty well, but not the Learjet—12-14 deliveries per year. The small bizjets are a “Red Sea”; too many models chasing customers. The large category has fewer models (Gulfstream and BBD Challenger and Global); more stable clientele and is more profitable.

The Lear’s failing is field performance especially on wet runways. A 350 or Global is better there, esp the Global.

GF

I must concur that there too many small jets,
The L85 was to grow Learjet up a category. Including wet field performance.

Embraer, Honda, Pilatus, Cessna, and for the bottom of the market Cirrus invested. This hurt Lear.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:32 pm

A lot of the market has moved up, too. For many buyers, the 350 is the bottom of the market-transcontinental range, stand-up cabin and lav. There are many GLF, Globals sold to first-time buyers.

The Lear has nice cruise performance, but it’s field performance is likely worst of the small jets. Vmcg is governing it, too, so no easy fixes. I suspect Pilatus is going to do well, lots of installed base, great reputation, great field performance until someone tries a dirt strip and balls it up.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:19 am

There's quite a difference in both acquisition and operating costs between a Learjet and Global. They would be a very hard uspell imo for anyone who didn't need the capacity and range of the Global.
 
Okie
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
Embraer, Honda, Pilatus, Cessna, and for the bottom of the market Cirrus invested. This hurt Lear.


Embraer is Producing in the range of 96 EMB 500/505 (100/300) per year and 70 Legacy 450/500 at Melbourne, FL
I know Embraer topped 500 examples of the Phenom 300 model last year.

That just has to cover about 50% of the light jet market one would think.

Okie
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:36 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
There's quite a difference in both acquisition and operating costs between a Learjet and Global. They would be a very hard uspell imo for anyone who didn't need the capacity and range of the Global.


It’s not an up sell; buyers are coming into the market at the CL350 level bypassing small Jets as a first purchase. One problem both the Lear 75 and the old 60 had was not enough range to fly NY to LAX, SFO, or SEA especially in winter. Wal-Mart, Southern Company and Eaton have Lear 45/75 fleets to meet shorter trips in their operations. Many HNWI buyers just go right to the Global/GLF whether they need it or not. Many spend winter cruising from PBI to NYC.

The Phenom and CJs are also Part 23 planes, much less expensive to design/build plus can be single-pilot. There’ll never be a single piloted Lear.

Embraer produced 111 Legacy 450/500 since 2014, I doubt those production rates. It didn’t sell well which why they’ve redone the design as the Praetor.

GF
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:50 am

Okie wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Embraer, Honda, Pilatus, Cessna, and for the bottom of the market Cirrus invested. This hurt Lear.


Embraer is Producing in the range of 96 EMB 500/505 (100/300) per year and 70 Legacy 450/500 at Melbourne, FL
I know Embraer topped 500 examples of the Phenom 300 model last year.

That just has to cover about 50% of the light jet market one would think.

Okie

I like GAMA's summary, the 2019 will come out in 3 or more moths. You can find them here:
https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/ ... y-outlook/

For 2018:
Lear: 12
Embraer:
200: 11
300: 53
Legacy 450/500: 23
HondaJet: 37
Pilatus: 18
Cessna
M2: 34
CJ3+: 37
CJ4: 29
Latitude: 57
Cirrus SF50: 63

Or of 374 lower cost jets (you included Legacy, so I included better selling Latitude of similar price point), Embraer sold 87 or 23% in 2018.

Lear 12 of 374... Not quite 4%.
The Cirrus SF50 is now the best selling cheap jet.

I would say Embraer, Pilatus, and Honda have taken over the traditional Learjet market However, Cessna doesn't make as much news, but when you get up to praetor price points ($17M for 509, $21+M for 600). You are going toe to toe with the popular Cessna Latitude ($17M, 57 delivered in 2018) and finally certified Longitude ($26 M, first delivery last day of 2019), one is above LearJet territory. The larger Cessnas sell well.

Longitude delivery:
http://aviationtribune.com/executive-he ... longitude/


A new Learjet 75 is $13.8 million.
https://www.airplaneupdate.com/2019/03/ ... 5.html?m=1

LearJet is really at a odd price point:

CJ3+ at $7.5 M
https://www.bing.com/search?q=cessna+cj ... ORM=CHROMN

CJ4 at $8.76
https://www.aircraftcompare.com/aircraf ... ation-cj4/

Basically Learjet 75 is priced below the Praetor and Latitude, but well above the E300/CJ4. No more is a Learjet the entry to jet setting.

Effectively, Cessna then Embraer took the high end.
Embraer with Cessna, Honda and Pilatus took the entry lear tier.
Cirrus has started to dominate the owner operator market.

Lear has no niche. The Praetor 600 and Latitude are definitive step up growth.

I see Flexjets flies Learjet75s:

https://www.sherpareport.com/aircraft/f ... tjets.html

But leader Netjets prefers Cessna after upgauging from the Embraer 300. (see above).

With the botched L85, Lear missed a product cycle. I don't know what might be next.

Lightsaber
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71Zulu
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:54 am

Any single pilot Learjet model?

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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:17 am

No, none, never has been. The 85 was an attempt to keep the brand name, but came to naught over the composite airframe. The 75 will hang on for diehard Lear owners. It’s an expensive investment for the expected return. Remember the Challenger 300/350 was a Lear design.
 
Max Q
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:47 am

The design seems very old fashioned now, small and cramped


And it’s cruise speed, quite slow despite its appearance is even less competitive these days
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
kabq737
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:31 pm

I think cabin has a lot to do with it. Having been inside of a couple I can’t imagine riding in it for long periods of time. Even the small Honda Jet cabin feels more open than a Lear inside.

Sure it was cool and special when it was new but I believe the Lear's day has passed. It’s a comparatively bad value when set next to something like a Phenom 300 and the design is showing its age.
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VSMUT
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:55 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Remember the Challenger 300/350 was a Lear design.


How so? Didn't he die in 1978?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:11 pm

VSMUT wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Remember the Challenger 300/350 was a Lear design.


How so? Didn't he die in 1978?


Well, the original Lear design that became the CL600 series was about the size of the 300, then grew to meet FDX’s requirements. More to the point, the 300 came out of the Lear “campus”, not Montreal. Sit in one and it’s unmistakeable who designed it. Big controversy when production was moved to Montreal.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:23 pm

Max Q wrote:
The design seems very old fashioned now, small and cramped


And it’s cruise speed, quite slow despite its appearance is even less competitive these days


It’s a bit faster than the traditional competitor, namely Cessnas, but the EMB 300 matches Its speed and mostly range. The interior cabin is within 2” of the Phenom’s dimensions. The Lear is more expensive in a market where price matters—mostly due to being a Part 25 design where the Phenom 100 & 200 are Part 23. It’s also been deprived in investment due to tough market and BBD’s financials.

A 75 is very different from the 35, nothing in common.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:57 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Remember the Challenger 300/350 was a Lear design.


How so? Didn't he die in 1978?


Well, the original Lear design that became the CL600 series was about the size of the 300, then grew to meet FDX’s requirements. More to the point, the 300 came out of the Lear “campus”, not Montreal. Sit in one and it’s unmistakeable who designed it. Big controversy when production was moved to Montreal.


Wait, the CL600 as well? That makes the CRJ1000 a Learjet, doesn't it?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Is the Learjet in danger of dying?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:37 pm

VSMUT wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

How so? Didn't he die in 1978?


Well, the original Lear design that became the CL600 series was about the size of the 300, then grew to meet FDX’s requirements. More to the point, the 300 came out of the Lear “campus”, not Montreal. Sit in one and it’s unmistakeable who designed it. Big controversy when production was moved to Montreal.


Wait, the CL600 as well? That makes the CRJ1000 a Learjet, doesn't it?


In a sense, yes. While the wiki entry doesn’t cover it well, the Lear family was getting a royalty per Challenger built, post Bill Lear’s demise. When the CRJ was introduced, the family sued citing the amended TC as proof of the design origin and their due royalties. Bombardier lost in Quebec court and paid a one-time settlement.

GF

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