FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3E ATL-MKL FEB 0>0.8[0.9] MAR 0>0.9[0.8] MAY 0>0.8[0.9] JUN 0>0.4[0.8]
3E BRL-MCW JUN 0>0.4[0.7]
3E BRL-ORD JUN 0>1.0[2]
3E BRL-STL FEB 0>1.8[1.9] MAR 0>1.9[1.8] MAY 0>1.8[1.9] JUN 0>0.9[1.8]
3E FOD-MCW JUN 0>0.4[0.7]
3E FOD-MSP JUN 0>0.4[0.7]
3E FOD-STL JUN 0>1.4[3]
3E IWD-MSP FEB 0>1.0[0.9] JUN 0>0.5[1.0]
3E IWD-ORD FEB 0>1.8[1.9] MAR 0>1.9[1.8] MAY 0>1.8[1.9] JUN 0>0.9[1.8]
3E JBR-STL JUN 0>1.3[3]
3E MCW-MSP JUN 0>0.9[1.7]
3E MCW-ORD JUN 0>0.9[1.7]
3E MKL-STL JUN 0>0.9[1.7]

9K ACK-EWB FEB 2>0.9[1.6] MAR 2>0.8[1.5] APR 2>0.9[1.6] MAY 2>1.0[1.6]

AA BOI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.6>0[1.0]
AA CLT-SXM SEP 0.2>0.6[0.2]
AA CUN-JFK SEP 0.2>0.4[0.2]
AA DCA-EYW MAY 1.1>0.5[0.3]
AA DFW-OAK MAY 0.8>0[0.2]
AA DFW-OGG AUG 1.5>2[1.6] SEP 1.0>1.2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.8[1.0]
AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA FDF-MIA SEP 0.0>0.3[0.1]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.6>0[3]
AA JFK-PHL MAY 4>0[0.1]
AA JFK-PUJ SEP 0.0>0.3[0.1]
AA JFK-YYZ MAY 1.6>0[2]
AA MHH-MIA SEP 0.0>0.3[0.1]
*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]
*AA ORD-YVR SEP 1.0>0.3[0.1] OCT 1.0>0[0]
AA PHX-YVR OCT 1.0>0.2[1.0]

*AG CUR-MIA FEB 0.7>0[0] MAR 0.7>0[0] APR 0.7>0[0] MAY 0.7>0[0] JUN 0.7>0[0] JUL 0.7>0[0] AUG 0.7>0[0] SEP 0.7>0[0] OCT 0.7>0[0]

B6 BDL-RSW MAR 2>1.0[1.0] APR 1.9>0.9[1.0]
B6 BOS-EWR APR 7>6[5]
B6 FLL-LAX MAR 4>3[3]
B6 FLL-NAS MAR 4>3[5] APR 4>3[5]
B6 JFK-LAX MAR 9>10[10]
B6 JFK-RSW MAR 4>5[3] APR 4>5[3]

DL ATL-HHH SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
MIA build up begins from hubs
DL ATL-MIA MAY 11>12[12]
DL BIL-MSP MAY 2>3[2.0]
DL BOS-CVG JUN 4>5[3] JUL 4>5[3] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[3] OCT 4>5[3]
DL CVG-SEA SEP 0.9>0.6[0.5] OCT 0.9>0.6[0.5]
DL DTW-MIA APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.9] SEP 2>3[1.9] OCT 2>3[1.8]
DL LGA-MIA SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
DL LGA-YOW JUN 1.9>2[1.8] JUL 1.9>3[1.7] AUG 1.8>3[1.8] SEP 1.9>3[1.7] OCT 1.8>3[1.7]
DL MIA-MSP APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.9] JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.8] SEP 2>3[1.6] OCT 2>3[1.7]
DL RDU-SLC JUL 2>1.6[1.0] AUG 2>1.6[0.9] SEP 2>1.5[0.8] OCT 2>1.6[0.8]
DL SEA-YVR MAY 8>6[6] JUN 8>6[7] JUL 8>6[7] AUG 8>6[7] SEP 8>6[7] OCT 8>6[7]
DL SEA-YYC MAY 2>3[2]

F9 AUS-MSY JUN 0>0.6[0.4]
F9 CLE-RSW JUN 1.0>1.6[1.1]

HA HNL-ITO SEP 12>13[14] OCT 12>13[14]
HA HNL-KOA OCT 18>19[19]
HA HNL-OGG OCT 25>26[27]

IB MAD-MIA MAY 1.0>2[2] JUN 1.0>2[2] JUL 1.0>2[2] AUG 1.0>2[2] SEP 1.0>2[2] OCT 1.2>1.9[1.9]

JQ HNL-SYD MAR 0.4>0.1[0.4]

A lot of DEN cuts in APR. Tells me DEN is weak.
NK AUS-DEN APR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**NK BAQ-FLL MAY 0>0.4[0]
NK BDL-MCO APR 2>3[2]
**NK BGA-FLL MAY 0>0.4[0]
NK BOS-MCO APR 2>3[2]
Given NK is big in both BWI and DFW surprising this doesn't work better
*NK BWI-DFW MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0] APR 1.0>0.3[1.0]
NK BWI-FLL APR 3>4[3]
NK BWI-MYR APR 1.1>1.6[1.0]
NK DEN-MCO APR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
NK DEN-MSY APR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
NK DFW-PHL MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0] APR 1.0>0.3[1.0]
NK MSP-TPA APR 0.7>0.2[1.3]
NK PHL-TPA APR 0.4>0.7[0.6]

UA AVL-ORD MAR 3>2[3]
UA CLE-IAD APR 3>4[4]
UA DEN-LGA APR 7>6[6]
**UA DEN-SMX JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
UA DLH-ORD MAR 3>2[3]
UA ERI-ORD MAY 1.1>1.9[2.0]
UA FNT-ORD MAY 3>4[4]
**UA LAX-SMX JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
**UA MKE-SFO JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0.0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.2[0]
UA ORD-SMF APR 3>2[3]
UA ORD-SPI MAR 3>2[3]
**UA SFO-SMX JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

UP FLL-FPO FEB 1.7>0.7[1.7] MAR 1.7>0.7[1.7]
**UP FLL-GGT APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.4[0]
UP MCO-NAS FEB 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
UP MHH-PBI FEB 0.9>0.6[0.9] MAR 0.9>0.6[0.9]

Looks like the long anticipated and expected American Eagle cuts at JFK have begun in earnest.

So great to see SMX (Santa Maria, CA) back on the map. They long had frequent commuter service to LAX and SFO by all three majors but, like many other smaller cities, their market entirely dried up over the last decade as the props went away. Hopefully they make a good comeback now with RJ's.

AA has added the 3rd MIA-GRU and 2nd MIA-SCL to the schedule, effective October 25, 2020.

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-HHH SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

Not bad for a route opened just a few months ago.

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

Chuska wrote:

So great to see SMX (Santa Maria, CA) back on the map. They long had frequent commuter service to LAX and SFO by all three majors but, like many other smaller cities, their market entirely dried up over the last decade as the props went away. Hopefully they make a good comeback now with RJ's.

Is parking still free in SMX?

enilria wrote:

AA BOI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.6>0[1.0]
AA DFW-OAK MAY 0.8>0[0.2]
AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.6>0[3]
AA JFK-PHL MAY 4>0[0.1]
AA JFK-YYZ MAY 1.6>0[2]

What's up with the May AA cuts?

adamh8297 wrote:

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

Could be. Also interesting to note that DL will be all mainline on the route this summer (5x 717).

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA BOI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.6>0[1.0]
AA DFW-OAK MAY 0.8>0[0.2]
AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.6>0[3]
AA JFK-PHL MAY 4>0[0.1]
AA JFK-YYZ MAY 1.6>0[2]

What's up with the May AA cuts?

I haven't gotten an explanation on this, so initially AA said the cuts were because of runway construction, that construction is now over. The other excuse is the Boeing 737 Max grounding, but most of these routes are on E140s most of which aren't picking up slack for the grounded aircraft, right?

Bigant0408 wrote:

*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]

I thought this route was good enough to warrant daily service. I guess AA saw low bookings or something to adjust the schedule

Wondering if they are rotating in the B752 on this route. Though you are probably right about the bookings.

It appears that AA just cut 30% of the eagle routes at JFK... it surprises me that AA would choose to serve Richmond over Toronto through JFK.

Interesting to see AA cut BOI-ORD and DFW-OAK. Are these cuts MAX related?

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA BOI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.6>0[1.0]
AA DFW-OAK MAY 0.8>0[0.2]
AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.6>0[3]
AA JFK-PHL MAY 4>0[0.1]
AA JFK-YYZ MAY 1.6>0[2]

What's up with the May AA cuts?

Part of their strategy -- AA wants to keep capacity almost flat with any increase coming from densifying the seats. Mind boggling IMHO and more than anything this benefits their competitors when the economy is expanding. United tried this strategy under Jeff Smisek and that did not pan out well. AA management doesn't echo the same competitive fire that we see from UA/DL.

AA has a ton of opportunities (I am not talking about JFK, but systemwide) given they have a rather strong position domestically but they aren't capitalizing on those opportunities. I have noticed a trend when they grow into a new market or expand a market this results in a cut somewhere else in the system whereas most of their main competitors for the most part are more growth oriented.

11C wrote:

Is parking still free in SMX?

It is!

http://www.santamariaairport.com/travel-info/faqs/

Bigant0408 wrote:

PHLspecial wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]

I thought this route was good enough to warrant daily service. I guess AA saw low bookings or something to adjust the schedule

Wondering if they are rotating in the B752 on this route. Though you are probably right about the bookings.

Yea not sure cause I know they’re using regional jets for this route right now but who knows the reason.

Sorry I misquoted the plane. Opps
I'm guess the O&D is not strong between the two cities and the connecting traffic as well. Shame.

adamh8297 wrote:

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

I don't understand why they would though. B6 has been doing more of the solidifying existing routes rather than adding new routes recently. And even among possible new markets, IND, CMH, MKE and SDF are probably all ahead of CVG in likelihood.

My guess is something will get announced for fall and it won't be CVG.

AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]

AA actually dropped ERI-ORD in Nov. I guess it was planned to come back for the summer but not anymore.

enilria wrote:

DL BOS-CVG JUN 4>5[3] JUL 4>5[3] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[3] OCT 4>5[3]

adamh8297 wrote:

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

In addition to defending against a possible add by B6, DL might be also defending against AA, WN, or F9 possibly adding BOS-CVG nonstop service.

Thanks enilria. FYI for the * beside AA’s YVR-ORD, I believe that route has always been seasonal. Looks like they’re reverting to last summer’s termination of Labour Day weekend instead of extending to October.

Separately, great to see DL increase YOW-LGA to 3x capitalizing on UA ending YOW-EWR, leaving only AC on the route.

I wonder when/if DL will ever bring back YOW-ATL? YOW has got to be the largest airport in eastern North America without ATL nonstops.

Gulfstream500 wrote:

It appears that AA just cut 30% of the eagle routes at JFK... it surprises me that AA would choose to serve Richmond over Toronto through JFK.

Are we sure these are cuts and not just adjustments for May? Looking ahead to June, CLE still shows 2x JFK on aa.com. I’m wondering if these are partly Max related still, with a reduced JFK mainline operation, there are less connection opportunities...

enilria wrote:

**UA MKE-SFO JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0.0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.2[0]

Finally!!! Shame it's only a summer seasonal route though. Unreal there is literally only ONE year round nonstop from MKE to the entire state of CA; WN to LAX.

phxtravelboy wrote:

Finally!!! Shame it's only a summer seasonal route though. Unreal there is literally only ONE year round nonstop from MKE to the entire state of CA; WN to LAX.

WN had recently reduced MKE-LAX nonstop service from year-round nonstop service to seasonal nonstop service, but WN MKE-LAX nonstop service resumes on March 8th.

enilria wrote:

Given NK is big in both BWI and DFW surprising this doesn't work better
*NK BWI-DFW MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0] APR 1.0>0.3[1.0]

WN already serves both BWI and DCA in the Baltimore/DC market nonstop from DAL. There are also some travelers in both the BWI/DCA/IAD and DFW/DAL markets who will avoid NK at all costs.

In addition to WN and NK serving the BWI/DCA/IAD market nonstop from Dallas, AA also already serves BWI, DCA, and IAD nonstop from its DFW hub, and UA also already serves its IAD hub nonstop from DFW.

Bigant0408 wrote:

*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]

I thought this route was good enough to warrant daily service. I guess AA saw low bookings or something to adjust the schedule

I wish the timings on this flight were better, it leaves MLB in the middle of the day which means you gotta take a whole day off from work. Guess it works well if you're taking a cruise

enilria wrote:

A lot of DEN cuts in APR. Tells me DEN is weak.

Those appear to be mostly "leisure" routes. It tells me that ski season is over.

So where is UP getting the plane from to start GGT-FLL. This will definitely hurt Silver because the locals that now fly Silver are loyal to UP

Dominion301 wrote:

Thanks enilria. FYI for the * beside AA’s YVR-ORD, I believe that route has always been seasonal. Looks like they’re reverting to last summer’s termination of Labour Day weekend instead of extending to October.

Separately, great to see DL increase YOW-LGA to 3x capitalizing on UA ending YOW-EWR, leaving only AC on the route.

I wonder when/if DL will ever bring back YOW-ATL? YOW has got to be the largest airport in eastern North America without ATL nonstops.

MLB-PHL also flat YOY, but still a big drop vs what they had said was the plan.
Thanks too!

Midwestindy wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

enilria wrote:

AA BOI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.6>0[1.0]
AA DFW-OAK MAY 0.8>0[0.2]
AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.6>0[3]
AA JFK-PHL MAY 4>0[0.1]
AA JFK-YYZ MAY 1.6>0[2]

What's up with the May AA cuts?

I haven't gotten an explanation on this, so initially AA said the cuts were because of runway construction, that construction is now over. The other excuse is the Boeing 737 Max grounding, but most of these routes are on E140s most of which aren't picking up slack for the grounded aircraft, right?

I have done a lot of research on this with some of the insiders on this thread through PM.

-Basically JFK sucks for AA.
-They are not ready to just drop out.
-They are holding their slots their using the MAX grounding as a loophole.
-The other carriers have considered complaining but aren’t because they are afraid if the slot usage rules are tightened they could themselves lose slots due to things like weather and such. So as of now nobody has complained.
-I would argue that a consumer group should complain.
-The FAA isn’t doing anything because they are happy to see the reduced use for Positive delay impact.
-AA basically did what is called a waterfall swap to turn E140 flying into MAXs. That’s where you trade planes of slightly smaller size until the smallest plane at the bottom gets the flight cut completely. Imagine a stair step waterfall.
-Most people outside AA think that AA will attempt to sell or trade the slots when the MAX is approved.

MLB is not a cruise port. Port Canaveral served by MCO/SFB or Port Everglades served by FLL so MLB would require a car rental to reach either port.

PI4EVR wrote:

MLB is not a cruise port. Port Canaveral served by MCO/SFB or Port Everglades served by FLL so MLB would require a car rental to reach either port.

MLB is half the distance to Port Canaveral than from Orlando.

HVNandrew wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

Could be. Also interesting to note that DL will be all mainline on the route this summer (5x 717).

Going 5x and now all mainline? Yeah, looks like Virginia Ave is expecting B6 to enter the market this year.

aaflyer777 wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]

I thought this route was good enough to warrant daily service. I guess AA saw low bookings or something to adjust the schedule

I wish the timings on this flight were better, it leaves MLB in the middle of the day which means you gotta take a whole day off from work. Guess it works well if you're taking a cruise

A whole day off? If you’re traveling for work you’re not off, you’re working. Why can’t you do a little work at home before leaving for the airport, or if you’re so motivated go in to the office from 8-10:30. That would allow you to get to MLB at 11am for the noon departure and you can work at the airport. The flight lands at 2:30, get to your hotel and work from 3:30-5:30. That’s a half day on the ground working and the other half traveling.

clrd4t8koff wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

DL getting the defense ready on BOS-CVG in case B6 enters?

Could be. Also interesting to note that DL will be all mainline on the route this summer (5x 717).

Going 5x and now all mainline? Yeah, looks like Virginia Ave is expecting B6 to enter the market this year.

Especially considering DL isn't flying any mainline on markets like CVG-LGA this summer.

I have always found CVG-BOS to be interesting though. Even when DL was seriously reducing service and pulling most mainline out of CVG several years ago, that route always kept at least 1-2 daily mainline flights. I'm guessing it has always been a solid performer and it's a CVG route that DL is still willing to defend.

enilria wrote:

-Basically JFK sucks for AA.
-They are not ready to just drop out.
-They are holding their slots their using the MAX grounding as a loophole.
-The other carriers have considered complaining but aren’t because they are afraid if the slot usage rules are tightened they could themselves lose slots due to things like weather and such. So as of now nobody has complained.
-I would argue that a consumer group should complain.
-The FAA isn’t doing anything because they are happy to see the reduced use for Positive delay impact.
-AA basically did what is called a waterfall swap to turn E140 flying into MAXs. That’s where you trade planes of slightly smaller size until the smallest plane at the bottom gets the flight cut completely. Imagine a stair step waterfall.
-Most people outside AA think that AA will attempt to sell or trade the slots when the MAX is approved.

Got it, I thought about the waterfall swap, so I guess I can see it being the case here. Hopefully they fully use the slots once the MAX groundings are over, or at least sell/trade with someone who will.

Chuska wrote:

AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]

AA actually dropped ERI-ORD in Nov. I guess it was planned to come back for the summer but not anymore.

Flights are still loaded for June and beyond. They just pushed back the restart date.

umichman wrote:

Chuska wrote:

AA ERI-ORD MAY 0.8>0[0.9]

AA actually dropped ERI-ORD in Nov. I guess it was planned to come back for the summer but not anymore.

Flights are still loaded for June and beyond. They just pushed back the restart date.

Like said some of these RJ / Eagle cuts that are just rolling forward month by month are almost certainly related to MAX grounding, where they are trimming the lowest performing routes to backfill capacity elsewhere.

Like said the waterfall approach:
MAX route covered by 738 route
738 covered by lo A319
A319 covered by CR9/E75
E75 covered by ERJ
Lowest performing ERJ routes cuts

enilria wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Thanks enilria. FYI for the * beside AA’s YVR-ORD, I believe that route has always been seasonal. Looks like they’re reverting to last summer’s termination of Labour Day weekend instead of extending to October.

Separately, great to see DL increase YOW-LGA to 3x capitalizing on UA ending YOW-EWR, leaving only AC on the route.

I wonder when/if DL will ever bring back YOW-ATL? YOW has got to be the largest airport in eastern North America without ATL nonstops.

MLB-PHL also flat YOY, but still a big drop vs what they had said was the plan.
Thanks too!

Midwestindy wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

What's up with the May AA cuts?

I haven't gotten an explanation on this, so initially AA said the cuts were because of runway construction, that construction is now over. The other excuse is the Boeing 737 Max grounding, but most of these routes are on E140s most of which aren't picking up slack for the grounded aircraft, right?

I have done a lot of research on this with some of the insiders on this thread through PM.

-Basically JFK sucks for AA.
-They are not ready to just drop out.
-They are holding their slots their using the MAX grounding as a loophole.
-The other carriers have considered complaining but aren’t because they are afraid if the slot usage rules are tightened they could themselves lose slots due to things like weather and such. So as of now nobody has complained.
-I would argue that a consumer group should complain.
-The FAA isn’t doing anything because they are happy to see the reduced use for Positive delay impact.
-AA basically did what is called a waterfall swap to turn E140 flying into MAXs. That’s where you trade planes of slightly smaller size until the smallest plane at the bottom gets the flight cut completely. Imagine a stair step waterfall.
-Most people outside AA think that AA will attempt to sell or trade the slots when the MAX is approved.

That’s probably also why UA isn’t yet complaining about AA’s JFK stall tactics as they’ll be first in line for any JFK slot divestiture north of a dozen slots.

As for AA on YVR-ORD, “always been seasonal” since they relaunched the route in 2018 was completely wrong on my part. See: https://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releas ... to-chicago. The route returned in 2018. Evidently went summer seasonal really quickly this past summer along with YVR-PHX going summer seasonal (rather odd as you’d think it would go winter seasonal?)...but a longer season than YVR-ORD: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -sep-2019/.

AA also used to fly it daily year round way back in their feed CP’s YVR Asia gateway days.

Alsatian wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-HHH SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

Not bad for a route opened just a few months ago.

Not all that surprised, they used to run multiple daily flights with the ATR. Are they really just operating it with E170's, why not put the E175 on there?

During my few times looking at PHL-MCO / MLB flights, MLB was much higher compared to MCO that the extra ~1hr drive to MCO from where I was visiting wasn't an issue. I'm talking $200+ difference.

HVNandrew wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

Could be. Also interesting to note that DL will be all mainline on the route this summer (5x 717).

Going 5x and now all mainline? Yeah, looks like Virginia Ave is expecting B6 to enter the market this year.

Especially considering DL isn't flying any mainline on markets like CVG-LGA this summer.

I have always found CVG-BOS to be interesting though. Even when DL was seriously reducing service and pulling most mainline out of CVG several years ago, that route always kept at least 1-2 daily mainline flights. I'm guessing it has always been a solid performer and it's a CVG route that DL is still willing to defend.

PG and GE both have major presences in both cities. PG is a big delta client from my understanding.

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

-Basically JFK sucks for AA.
-They are not ready to just drop out.
-They are holding their slots their using the MAX grounding as a loophole.
-The other carriers have considered complaining but aren’t because they are afraid if the slot usage rules are tightened they could themselves lose slots due to things like weather and such. So as of now nobody has complained.
-I would argue that a consumer group should complain.
-The FAA isn’t doing anything because they are happy to see the reduced use for Positive delay impact.
-AA basically did what is called a waterfall swap to turn E140 flying into MAXs. That’s where you trade planes of slightly smaller size until the smallest plane at the bottom gets the flight cut completely. Imagine a stair step waterfall.
-Most people outside AA think that AA will attempt to sell or trade the slots when the MAX is approved.

Got it, I thought about the waterfall swap, so I guess I can see it being the case here. Hopefully they fully use the slots once the MAX groundings are over, or at least sell/trade with someone who will.

Another interesting point about waterfall swaps. The legacies have so many types that they can do them and really limit revenue loss. Southwest can’t do it because they don’t really have that much variance in aircraft size.

Bigant0408 wrote:

PHLspecial wrote:

Bigant0408 wrote:

*AA MLB-PHL JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 0.3>0.0[0] OCT 0.8>0.1[0.1]

I thought this route was good enough to warrant daily service. I guess AA saw low bookings or something to adjust the schedule

Wondering if they are rotating in the B752 on this route. Though you are probably right about the bookings.

Yea not sure cause I know they’re using regional jets for this route right now but who knows the reason.

Perhaps this is just becoming a seasonal route? Good for snowbirds going to the Space Coast or Vero Beach...

Look at the frequency swing RSW goes through each summer

enilria wrote:

MIA build up begins from hubs
DL ATL-MIA MAY 11>12[12]
DL DTW-MIA APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.9] SEP 2>3[1.9] OCT 2>3[1.8]
DL LGA-MIA SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
DL MIA-MSP APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.9] JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.8] SEP 2>3[1.6] OCT 2>3[1.7]

Interesting. We knew it had to come with the LATAM partnership, but has anything formal been said or indicated before or is this the first sign/confirmation of what we all presumed.

durangomac wrote:

Alsatian wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL ATL-HHH SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

Not bad for a route opened just a few months ago.

Not all that surprised, they used to run multiple daily flights with the ATR. Are they really just operating it with E170's, why not put the E175 on there?

Especially since that is hardly peak season. Spent a lot of time at Hilton Head and whole September and October are great times to be there, they certainly aren’t the busiest.

HVNandrew wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

HVNandrew wrote:

Could be. Also interesting to note that DL will be all mainline on the route this summer (5x 717).

Going 5x and now all mainline? Yeah, looks like Virginia Ave is expecting B6 to enter the market this year.

Especially considering DL isn't flying any mainline on markets like CVG-LGA this summer.

I have always found CVG-BOS to be interesting though. Even when DL was seriously reducing service and pulling most mainline out of CVG several years ago, that route always kept at least 1-2 daily mainline flights. I'm guessing it has always been a solid performer and it's a CVG route that DL is still willing to defend.

What's crazy is that with whats loaded now as 5x 717 on CVG-BOS, they will have more seats per day than to hubs in DTW, MSP, or LGA.
Basically the only DL market from CVG that will have more seats per day than BOS is ATL.
I doubt their is another city in the network other than CVG where BOS is the #2 market in terms of daily seats.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if this sticks at this frequency at all 717s. 5x CR9 I can see, 5x is a huge influx of seats into the market.

SuseJ772 wrote:

enilria wrote:

MIA build up begins from hubs
DL ATL-MIA MAY 11>12[12]
DL DTW-MIA APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.9] SEP 2>3[1.9] OCT 2>3[1.8]
DL LGA-MIA SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
DL MIA-MSP APR 2>3[2] MAY 2>3[1.9] JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[1.8] AUG 2>3[1.8] SEP 2>3[1.6] OCT 2>3[1.7]

Interesting. We knew it had to come with the LATAM partnership, but has anything formal been said or indicated before or is this the first sign/confirmation of what we all presumed.

DL has flown 3x during peak spring break from DTW & MSP to MIA but would typically drop down to an inferior schedule at 2x daily during summer, fall, early winter.
When at 2x, DL had no afternoon/evening departure from DTW to MIA (last nonstop went at 12pm) and no morning departure from MIA to DTWfor example (flights were at like 12pm & 4pm), which now in theory could connect better to LATAM flights.

SuseJ772 wrote:

durangomac wrote:

Alsatian wrote:

Not bad for a route opened just a few months ago.

Not all that surprised, they used to run multiple daily flights with the ATR. Are they really just operating it with E170's, why not put the E175 on there?

Especially since that is hardly peak season. Spent a lot of time at Hilton Head and whole September and October are great times to be there, they certainly aren’t the busiest.

Keep adding flights to Hilton Head please Delta. It's already cheaper for me to fly out of there than it is for me to fly out of here in Savannah.