2019 was a good year for Airbus. 2020 will be even better.

GEUltraFan9XGTF · Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:27 pm

First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

ZKCIF · Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:46 pm

Winning WN as a customer?
A good one.

Baldr · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:10 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

IMJ, WN could easily order 200 A220-300s.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: US/AL manufacturing expansion

A320neo/A321neo production at the Mobile, Alabama site is being increased to seven aircraft per month in 2021.

Also, Airbus may be looking at a combined FAL for the A330neo/A350 next to the A220/A320 FALs in Mobile.

https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/airbus-plans-to-hike-mobile-a320-production-to-7-monthly-rate/136069.article

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo

The first flight of the UltraFan demonstrator is scheduled for 2023. AFAIK, no test bed for the flight testing of the UltraFan demonstrator has been chosen yet. RR's own 747 testbed or the A380 MSN001 prototype could be used.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.

A310neo?

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.

Very doable with a large WN order.

Exeiowa · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:15 pm

That last one seems unlikely and only if Boeing throws in the towel of getting their offering back in the skies in a timely fashion.

JonesNL · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:16 pm

Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

Baldr · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:19 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

Ordering the A220 may be a matter of survival for WN, since the future of the 737 MAX is not yet secured.

JetBuddy · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:26 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

Sometimes it's important to have lofty goals. And there's no better time for Airbus to achieve these goals than right now.

An NMA announcement would be the most exciting thing on this list. Imagine Airbus launching a NMA/MOM before Boeing even has all their 737s back up in the air. Wow.

morrisond · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:34 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

Sometimes it's important to have lofty goals. And there's no better time for Airbus to achieve these goals than right now.

An NMA announcement would be the most exciting thing on this list. Imagine Airbus launching a NMA/MOM before Boeing even has all their 737s back up in the air. Wow.

From a strategy standpoint that would be a great idea. Although it's not like Boeing doesn't have something they could role out right away either.

Other than Keesje's A322 what other things have they rumoured to be working on? If it is a new Cross section with more range than A321XLR that would effectively end 330 but that's okay as they still have a great plane in the A350.

WayexTDI · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:39 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

1,000 - 500 = 500; you mean to say the A220 sold 500 so far? Nope, they had 600 orders at the end of January 2019.

Also, another FYI, Airbus had a net 679 orders of A320neo Family in 2019.

JonesNL · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:41 pm

Baldr wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

Ordering the A220 may be a matter of survival for WN, since the future of the 737 MAX is not yet secured.

From platform perspective the A220 is the most modern and future proof platform. But from productivity perspective it is missing the volume needing to supply WN. Acalp would need to commit to increase the production volume by 100% from the design capacity of 168 to be able to give WN the metal they need. Maybe in 2023 they can do this, but not in 2020.

JonesNL · Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:48 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

1,000 - 500 = 500; you mean to say the A220 sold 500 so far? Nope, they had 600 orders at the end of January 2019.

Also, another FYI, Airbus had a net 679 orders of A320neo Family in 2019.

My apologies, apparently my math was faulty. But 165 was the record orders in 1 year for the A220, 400 is more than double that. I could see that amount reached easily with a A225 launch.

1989worstyear · Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:02 pm

Baldr wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

IMJ, WN could easily order 200 A220-300s.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: US/AL manufacturing expansion

A320neo/A321neo production at the Mobile, Alabama site is being increased to seven aircraft per month in 2021.

Also, Airbus may be looking at a combined FAL for the A330neo/A350 next to the A220/A320 FALs in Mobile.

https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/airbus-plans-to-hike-mobile-a320-production-to-7-monthly-rate/136069.article

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo

The first flight of the UltraFan demonstrator is scheduled for 2023. AFAIK, no test bed for the flight testing of the UltraFan demonstrator has been chosen yet. RR's own 747 testbed or the A380 MSN001 prototype could be used.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.

A310neo?

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.

Very doable with a large WN order.

I'd kill to see an A310 NEO. It's wing and use of composites are similar to today's A320-200.

But I'm afraid it won't happen as it's the only Airbus product from the true '80s.

T4thH · Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:04 pm

I fear the next years will not be so easy for neither Airbus nor Boeing; we have seen many airlines in last year, breaking down and many more cancellations of orders, than I have expected....And there are already many airlines again short before collapse; as example Hongkong airlines, the whole Hainan group, Ethihad, now flybe again, the whole bunch of the South American airline groups, Interjet, Malysian airlines, Air India, many small European airlines e.g. There are still over-capacities in important markets, like Europe, Middle East, South America, South Asia and South East Asia...

Last year was a good to excellent year regarding gross orders (and at least an according to good year also for net orders) for Airbus but why it was good? Because Airbus is willed and able to fill up the niches, as requested by the airlines, like the A321 LR and Xlr, the A330 neo/A350 Xwb high density PAX versions, extreme long range versions...Without these, also Airbus would have had already a bad year as Boeing has had.
When I see the Boeing 2019 orders...are they still selling passenger jets or now only freighters, military conversions and business jets?

Also I believe Airbus will do better than Boeing in next years (and Airbus has already a good start with the recently firmed 100x Spirit A320 neo family order), also I expect to see many MAX orders for Boeing once the jet will be allowed to fly again (many airlines are committed, they have to buy the MAX, they can not else, they just have to)...next years will be interesting for both.

Good for Airbus: They have an according backlog for all products, production is according backlogs...
Bad for Boeing: Production numbers and backlogs do not fit.

Baldr · Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:25 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Baldr wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this. A220 needs 500 orders to reach that number, even the A32x didn't reach that number in 2019. Airbus still doesn't own the complete Program, So ı don't think they will go overdrive for extra orders. And winning WN is the Ultimate dream of Airbus, but almost an impossible nut to crack. Maybe the last 2 point will coincide.

Ordering the A220 may be a matter of survival for WN, since the future of the 737 MAX is not yet secured.

From platform perspective the A220 is the most modern and future proof platform. But from productivity perspective it is missing the volume needing to supply WN. Acalp would need to commit to increase the production volume by 100% from the design capacity of 168 to be able to give WN the metal they need. Maybe in 2023 they can do this, but not in 2020.

I'd guess that WN would be launch customer for the A220-500. EIS in 2024.

Baldr · Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:48 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Baldr wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
First of all, thanks to the mods for allowing me to post again. I hope this post doesn't put me in hot water immediately.

I happened to have lunch here in DC last week with a group and one of those invited was visiting from Toulouse. While I cannot comment on specifics here, I have it on good authority that Airbus will not be resting on its laurels. By comparison, they are beginning to truly fire on all cylinders and reach a new stride.

2020 will be a year that Airbus truly capitalizes while their chief competitor undergoes rehab for self-inflicted wounds.

On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.
-A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo.
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

IMJ, WN could easily order 200 A220-300s.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: US/AL manufacturing expansion

A320neo/A321neo production at the Mobile, Alabama site is being increased to seven aircraft per month in 2021.

Also, Airbus may be looking at a combined FAL for the A330neo/A350 next to the A220/A320 FALs in Mobile.

https://www.flightglobal.com/aerospace/airbus-plans-to-hike-mobile-a320-production-to-7-monthly-rate/136069.article

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A full UltraFan demonstrator from RR to tease the capabilities of the A350neo

The first flight of the UltraFan demonstrator is scheduled for 2023. AFAIK, no test bed for the flight testing of the UltraFan demonstrator has been chosen yet. RR's own 747 testbed or the A380 MSN001 prototype could be used.

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.

A310neo?

GEUltraFan9XGTF said: The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.

Very doable with a large WN order.

I'd kill to see an A310 NEO. It's wing and use of composites are similar to today's A320-200.

But I'm afraid it won't happen as it's the only Airbus product from the true '80s.

The shape of the supercritical A310 and A320 aerofoils are quite similar, but the trailing edge of the A310 is very different to that of the A320.

An A310neo could use the same centre wing box design as that of the A310-200/-300. However, since an A310neo should be designed with continuous flaps and without the A310-200's high-speed inner aileron (i.e. all-speed aileron on the A310-300), a new outer (composite) wingbox would therefore be required. However, it would be similar in shape to the original A310 wingbox. Also, the wing span should be increased to just short of 52m.

2.4.2 A310-300

The Airbus A310 (fig. 2.19) went through evolutionary steps similar to the A300. A310 slats have a very pronounced taper, with a chord ratio of about 17.5 percent at the side of body and 22 percent at the wing tip. The maximum slat deflection angles are 23 ° inboard and 25.4 ° outboard. As with the A300, there are only three spanwise slat panels. The two outboard slats have long spans with three slat supports. The slats are probably mounted on identical arc tracks just as on the A300. The inboard slat has a spring-loaded plug to seal it against the engine strut. In addition, an inboard Krueger reduces the gap between the inboard slat and the side of body. Actuation is with screw jacks that penetrate the front spar, and the tracks and screw jacks share the front spar cans. (See fig. 1.19.)

On the inboard trailing edge, the A310 has articulating vane/main, double-slotted flaps (fig. 2.20), but the outboard, trailing-edge flaps are single-slotted (fig. 2.21). The maximum flap deflection angle is 41 ° for the inboard flap and 31.6 ° for the outboard flap. Both use a hooked-track mechanism where large, cantilevered rollers run inside I-beam-type tracks; actuation is by screw jacks. The large-span outboard flaps have three supports per panel. Inboard and outboard flaps are separated by an inboard, high-speed, aileron/thrust gate, which is drooped for low-speed operation on the 310-300 model. The low-speed, outboard aileron of the original A310 was deleted on the A310-300 model.

-

2.4.3 Airbus A320

The Airbus A320 started a new approach in high-lift technology for Airbus. Its leading edge has one inboard slat and four outboard slats with very little chord taper. The maximum slat deflection angle is 27 °. The slats have an intermediate takeoff position with a small gap, and there are no slave tracks. Slat chord is about 10.6 percent of the wing chord at the side of body and 28.5 percent at the tip, which suggests that the slat tracks have a constant track radius spanwise and cylindrical motion. The slat span is such that only two supports per panel are required. The drive system uses a modified Boeing 757 rack and pinion system. (See fig. 1.21.) No special sealing devices are provided at the engine strut, but the engine nacelles have chines to negate the adverse effect of a slat gap around the engine-mount strut. An inboard slat horn next to the side of body stabilizes the inboard slat edge vortex (ref. 2).

As can be seen in figure 2.22, the A320 trailing-edge flaps are single-slotted inboard and outboard, with a maximum flap deflection angle of 40 °. There is no thrust gate between the inboard and outboard flaps, which seal perfectly in both the stowed and deployed positions. The trailing-edgeflap mechanism is a link/track mechanism with an upside-down, forward link and a straight track on fixed structure as the aft support. (See fig. 1.31.) The pivot point for the carriage running on the straight track is close to the center of pressure of the flap, so overturning loads on the track are very small, and actuation loads on the drive link are very low. An interesting feature of the A320 flap is that the overlap on the inboard and outboard flaps is constant, suggesting that the flap support mechanism for the inboard and both outboard flap supports are essentially identical spanwise and from side to side. This feature, of course, reduces production cost. The A320 has a high-/low speed outboard aileron that does not droop.

Source (Page 68): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19960052267.pdf

GEUltraFan9XGTF · Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:52 pm

T4thH wrote:
I fear the next years will not be so easy for neither Airbus nor Boeing; we have seen many airlines in last year, breaking down and many more cancellations of orders, than I have expected....And there are already many airlines again short before collapse; as example Hongkong airlines, the whole Hainan group, Ethihad, now flybe again, the whole bunch of the South American airline groups, Interjet, Malysian airlines, Air India, many small European airlines e.g. There are still over-capacities in important markets, like Europe, Middle East, South America, South Asia and South East Asia...

In addition to this - quite seriously - the impact of climate change and flight shaming. It is a thing. I think we are going to see a massive reduction in flying for business as a result. This will hit airlines and OEMs very hard.

T4thH · Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:11 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
T4thH wrote:
I fear the next years will not be so easy for neither Airbus nor Boeing; we have seen many airlines in last year, breaking down and many more cancellations of orders, than I have expected....And there are already many airlines again short before collapse; as example Hongkong airlines, the whole Hainan group, Ethihad, now flybe again, the whole bunch of the South American airline groups, Interjet, Malysian airlines, Air India, many small European airlines e.g. There are still over-capacities in important markets, like Europe, Middle East, South America, South Asia and South East Asia...

In addition to this - quite seriously - the impact of climate change and flight shaming. It is a thing. I think we are going to see a massive reduction in flying for business as a result. This will hit airlines and OEMs very hard.

So, let us talk about the flight shame; as regular the Germans are the most crazy ones...and it has had no effect, it is now just the next "story" ...and in few month, when everyone is bored, the next stupid story will come. This is typical German (and I am a German I have to know it)..
I expect to see laws, which will force to use more fuel efficient and more quit jets, but this is something on-going, which we can already see in Europe. So neither overestimate nor under-estimate it.

94717 · Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:12 pm

Interesting is the trend of eco friendly jetsets getting questions about their usage of private jets.

I can see executives and government people getting questions regarding their organisation policy and first class pretty soon.

T4thH · Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:38 pm

olle wrote:
Interesting is the trend of eco friendly jetsets getting questions about their usage of private jets.

I can see executives and government people getting questions regarding their organisation policy and first class pretty soon.

Sorry, but you are little bit late, this story was already one year ago up to date in Germany, now no one cares any more.

Regarding "eco friendly": I hope to see soon synthetic and CO2 neutral fuels. This will be something, I will support.

tealnz · Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:46 am

Baldr wrote:
The shape of the supercritical A310 and A320 aerofoils are quite similar, but the trailing edge of the A310 is very different to that of the A320. An A310neo could use the same centre wing box design as that of the A310-200/-300. However, since an A310neo should be designed with continuous flaps and without the A310-200's high-speed inner aileron (i.e. all-speed aileron on the A310-300), a new outer (composite) wingbox would therefore be required. However, it would be similar in shape to the original A310 wingbox. Also, the wing span should be increased to just short of 52m.

We haven't had an authoritative answer to the question of whether the A300/310 fuselage in aluminium would carry an unacceptable weight penalty vis a vis a tight seven-across composite Boeing NMA design. Any thoughts? Presumably the hold capacity (two abreast LD3s) of the A300 cross-section would appeal to some airlines even if the fuselage was a little heavier. And presumably if Airbus decided to go down this path they would use A330 systems as far as possible.

As for the wing, bearing in mind you're already carrying a weight penalty with the metal fuselage, would it not make more sense to do a full composite wing and wing box, even if the upfront investment was higher?

FluidFlow · Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:56 am

tealnz wrote:
Baldr wrote:
The shape of the supercritical A310 and A320 aerofoils are quite similar, but the trailing edge of the A310 is very different to that of the A320. An A310neo could use the same centre wing box design as that of the A310-200/-300. However, since an A310neo should be designed with continuous flaps and without the A310-200's high-speed inner aileron (i.e. all-speed aileron on the A310-300), a new outer (composite) wingbox would therefore be required. However, it would be similar in shape to the original A310 wingbox. Also, the wing span should be increased to just short of 52m.

We haven't had an authoritative answer to the question of whether the A300/310 fuselage in aluminium would carry an unacceptable weight penalty vis a vis a tight seven-across composite Boeing NMA design. Any thoughts? Presumably the hold capacity (two abreast LD3s) of the A300 cross-section would appeal to some airlines even if the fuselage was a little heavier. And presumably if Airbus decided to go down this path they would use A330 systems as far as possible.

As for the wing, bearing in mind you're already carrying a weight penalty with the metal fuselage, would it not make more sense to do a full composite wing and wing box, even if the upfront investment was higher?

The weight penalty can not be looked at as a single criteria. In general the composite architecture will be more expensive to build. On top of that the smaller the aircraft and the shorter the routes it has to fly, the little additional weight of a traditional fuselage can be compensated by other means, especially lower construction cost and therefore lower acquisition costs. Also if Airbus would launch an A300/310neo, it would be a massive benefit if it can be build with A330neo commonality on the same line lowering costs even further. An A310neo for 65m$ beats an Boeing NMA for 80m$ even if it is 5t heavier.

Slug71 · Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:12 am

If there is to be a NEO of the A300/310, I think it's more likely going to be the A300 than the A310. The A300 is more "middle of the road" between the A321 and A330.

A330 fuselage barrels, composite wings and empennage, redesigned/lighter gear?

While there is a cost penalty with composites, it's not it once was. Materials costs have come down, machinery and automation has improved, 3D printing has evolved etc.
Production has become a lot more efficient.

Someone83 · Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:23 am

One year ago....wasn't the future then very bright for Boeing?

Things happens....and can also happen to Airbus

GEUltraFan9XGTF · Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:49 pm

Someone83 wrote:
One year ago....wasn't the future then very bright for Boeing?

Things happens....and can also happen to Airbus

I don't think Airbus is trying so hard to work against itself. I think Airbus - with its European mindset - sees labor and talent as an asset that must be cultivated. Unions? Not the enemy. Apprenticeship and workforce development programs? Absolutely necessary! Boeing on the other hand, like too many American companies, sees labor as a liability and this alone is not the basis for producing the world's safest, most innovative aircraft.

Additionally, I would never wish on Airbus what Boeing has done to itself, resulting in the death of some 350 passengers.

PacoMartin · Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:02 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.

Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

flightgobal 18 September 2019 wrote:
Airbus estimates that the potential market for Boeing’s proposed New Mid-market Airplane amounts to 2,500 aircraft, at best, over the next two decades.

Is this idea something you just made up? Do you have any evidence? I have heard some speculation about an A322, but it is not well defined except it will be single-aisle and have better performance specs than the XLR.

CFRPwingALbody · Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:19 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
...
On the "goal" list include the following:

-US/AL manufacturing expansion. Pretty sure this has been mentioned here already but will also put the squeeze on Boeing for securing qualified talent.

As written by others, Airbus will already increase A320NEO family production rate at Mobile from 5 to 7 /month. And they will start building A220's in Mobile, for this year at a very low rate. I see a very small posibility for A330NEO/A350 cabin outfitting/completion facilities in Mobile, but not more than that for the widebodies. This facility could also be used as MRTT conversion facility, if required by the US. But AFAIK this isn't likely.

I think airbus will also announce a production rate increase at their Tianjin, China facility. Possibly this will be announced soon with the orders from China / CASC that come along with such an announcement. But even if China doesn't add orders I think it would be good for Airbus to increase A320 Tianjin FAL rate from 6 to 7 or 8.

-A NMA announcement of their own, bridging the XLR and the A339neo.

I also see this possibility, but I expect Airbus will keep offering the A338. I think it would be very nice if Airbus got back to it's roots after existing ~50years. Thus I think this MOM will replace A306R and A332. Hopefully airbus will try some inventive things with this, that can later be implemented into the A338 and A339. I see an opportunity to increase airbus freighter offering here. I hope Airbus can develop something that closes the 747 story. ...

-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.

I checked Airbus dec. O&D; Order total: A220-100 95x; A220-300 505x. so total 600 orders with 105 delivered is a 495 backlog.
A220 rate increase can only take place after Bombardier has vacated the CRJ FAL at Mirabel for A220 pre assembly. That's planned for 2021 according to Fliegerfaust. So I think this year is to early for a huge order intake for A220 (CSeries).

-Winning WN as a customer.
Of course, take this with a grain of salt as I cannot quote specific people or provide links.

Agreed this last one isn't very likely, would be a huge blow to Boeing.

May I add that I expect that Boeing and the US will also learn that their trade dispute (USA vs Airbus and EU vs Boeing) will blow up in their face.
I expect that Airbus and European governments will adopt according to the trade dispute ruiling. But this will be in Airbus benefit.
If my expectation is correct, Airbus will redistribute A220 and A320 production work. This enables them to increase production rates while decreasing strain on the logistics (Beluga fleet). I don't see a further A320 rate increase without redistributing work. But the legacy EADS (Airbus) to Nation agreements prohibit this. Thanks to Boeing and the USA trade sanctions there is incentive to change.

I also expect that we'll see the Airbus Racer doing flight tests this year. I expect that that will be important for the future of Airbus Helicopters.
With the (C295) ATR and D328NEU, the only remaining product gap is an CRJ replacement, EJet / MRJ competitor.
2020 is some years to early for launching this. But I think Airbus (European & Canadian companies) can develop something ecologically revolutionary. This has to do with bypass ratio's.

CFRPwingALbody · Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:32 pm

I hope that Airbus will also start some more European collaborations.
For example I see possibilities in a Pilatus Airbus collaboration. This is could be a bit of a Airbus Racer spinoff.

I've the same in mind for the CRJ replacement, though this competes with ATR's.
Edit to add: link to Leeham E = Enviroment plane part 3

ShamrockBoi330 · Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:37 pm

Flugerfaust today saying Bombardier already had plans for a 500 variant that Airbus are poking around, and also reporting on potential further stretches for a 700/900 variant.

All with a pinch of salt of course, but an interesting read none the less.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/new-airbus ... 78587.html

PepeTheFrog · Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:47 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-Winning WN as a customer.

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

JetBuddy · Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:33 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Flugerfaust today saying Bombardier already had plans for a 500 variant that Airbus are poking around, and also reporting on potential further stretches for a 700/900 variant.

All with a pinch of salt of course, but an interesting read none the less.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/new-airbus ... 78587.html

That's a really interesting article. I Don't know how much is true, but a lot of it makes sense. Maybe the A220-500 is closer than what most people think.

BN727227Ultra · Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:42 pm

ZKCIF wrote:
Winning WN as a customer?
A good one.

If A snags Ryanair, will that be close enough for A to declare victory?

PepeTheFrog · Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:44 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Last 3 point seem like pipe Dream. Keesjes A322 would fit perfect in that GAP, but not many indications that they are working on this.

The A322 is not being developed, but Airbus did some studies in 2018 to stretch and re-wing the A321. At least Airbus knows what needs to be done to close the gap between the A321 XLR and A330-900.

Kikko19 · Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:50 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
ZKCIF wrote:
Winning WN as a customer?
A good one.

If A snags Ryanair, will that be close enough for A to declare victory?

Since the max might not fly again WN and FR will either slowly disappear (retirement of 737 already started) or switch to available planes. Unfortunately for them (kl and several others) they bet on the wrong horse. Wizzair easyjet, indigo, spirit, jet blue, Lufthansa, Sas, Finnair, TP, air asia and many others instead will be able to grow. Darwin in action also in aviation.

IWMBH · Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:01 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
ZKCIF wrote:
Winning WN as a customer?
A good one.

If A snags Ryanair, will that be close enough for A to declare victory?

I don't think Airbus gets a order from WN next year. But, if Ryanair (via Lauda) orders a large number of A321neo's I would definitely count that as a win over Boeing.

GEUltraFan9XGTF · Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:07 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-Winning WN as a customer.

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

"Rules" are meant to be broken.

TObound · Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:36 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-The A220 will have well over 1000+ orders by EOY.
-Winning WN as a customer.

I'm guessing these are co-dependent goals.

There's only one other way I see 1000+ A220 orders by EOY: launch of the A220-500.

TObound · Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:58 am

I'm genuinely curious if the A225 has a case on merely freeing up slots on the NEO line to sell higher margin 321s. At current production rates and forecast ramps, Airbus has 8 years of backlog for the NEO and 4 years of backlog for the 220. At full production rate for the 220, a years worth of 320NEO production is worth 4 years of 220 production. If they could divert just one years worth of 320NEOs to the 225, they free up 800 slots to sell 321NEOs, LRs and XLRs, and they get to fill up both lines out to at least 2028.

If the 225 launches with 200+ net orders, it would have practically paid for its own development. And given the public statements from stone carriers, we can all but count on 300-400 orders at launch, once you have options being exercised too. EIS in 2023-2024, protects a lot of the existing order book for the program. And the 225 launch would absolutely make the 220 program profitable. All while reducing some pressure on the 320NEO line.

juliuswong · Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:05 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-Winning WN as a customer.

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

"Rules" are meant to be broken.

Never say never in aviation industry. Airbus has flipped more "Boeing-only" customers to them vs Boeing flipping "Airbus-only" customers for past two decades. No one knows for sure what will happen today, tomorrow or in the future.......

RJMAZ · Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:24 am

Slug71 wrote:
If there is to be a NEO of the A300/310, I think it's more likely going to be the A300 than the A310. The A300 is more "middle of the road" between the A321 and A330.

A330 fuselage barrels, composite wings and empennage, redesigned/lighter gear?

I'd say it would half way between the two.

Wing area would be similar to the A310 maybe with a bit of extra span from blended winglets. MTOW would be closer to the A310 and fuselage length would probably be half way between the two. New engines should allow it to maintain A310 range despite the longer fuselage.

I was expexting this to be called A360 and to be in response to the 797 launch. I also expect the A330NEO production to wind up much quicker than expected. The A330NEO is sharing sales with the A350 as they are very close in size and this is preventing both from ramping up production. I expect lots of A330NEO orders to get converted to smaller A360's or larger A350's.

The A350 should be able to be built at 15 aircraft per month with the A330NEO gone and we assume half of the A330NEO orders went to the A350. The A360 should also be able to maintain 15 aircraft per month as the 4000-5000nm thin route market is a massive untapped market. They are keeping 30+ year old 767's flying because this MOM market is in such high demand.

TObound · Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:32 am

Why does everyone always assume that the NMA category needs a twin aisle and has to cover the full range? I see plenty of room for Airbus to build essentially the modern 757 out of the 320NEO family with new landing gear, wings and maybe some updated systems.

And even if that was on the smaller side and didn't truly replace the 330NEO, the commonality would guarantee sales and the low cost of development would mean higher profitability and a shorter development time.

The could probably develop my hypothetical 322 and 323 for < $2 billion and have it EIS before 2025. If they do the 225 by end 2023 and then EIS the 322 and 323 by 2026, they'll have an opportunity to both increase the backlog and massively boost yield with much higher profits per aircraft.

oschkosch · Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:26 am

juliuswong wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

"Rules" are meant to be broken.

Never say never in aviation industry. Airbus has flipped more "Boeing-only" customers to them vs Boeing flipping "Airbus-only" customers for past two decades. No one knows for sure what will happen today, tomorrow or in the future.......

well said!

CHRISBA35X · Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:49 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Flugerfaust today saying Bombardier already had plans for a 500 variant that Airbus are poking around, and also reporting on potential further stretches for a 700/900 variant.

All with a pinch of salt of course, but an interesting read none the less.

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/new-airbus ... 78587.html

I think this is the natural evolution and I'm pleased they've not rushed it. they've sorted the production issues out and seem to be well on the way. A -500 stretch will be an incredible bird and finally begin the process of tucking up the A320 and 737 in their retirement beds.

Meanwhile the A320 family will migrate upwards in size. First to go will be the A319, then the A320 will start to scale back as the A223/A225 start to take over its market. A321 series will grow and grow. Logic suggests that we may well see more developments of the XLR, and I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at a revision of the baseline A321 that lowers weight and makes it pretty much unbeatable on the 1-3 hour hops the short haul employed A321s do in Europe and Asia. Shortened wing, no sharklets, weight reductions, lighter gear, smaller tankage - an A321 short haul people mover pretty much.

MOM will be interesting. I agree with other posters that it will be based on an A300-length composite A330 fuselage, again - shortened wings, no sharklets, weight reductions, lighter gear, powerplants optimised for high cycles, minimum possible thrust, bargain basement fuel burn. It only really needs seven hour range. It would be a very compelling bird, if you look at the number of A332/333/788/789 we see globally being abused on short milk runs, especially in Asia.

Its weird you know - its a case of back to the future.

The more we look forward to the future, so we end up reverting backwards - the A321 is moving towards the 757 and the A330 is moving toward the A300/310.

CHRISBA35X · Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:00 am

Re Airbus breaking into WN - it would be a surprise for some for sure, but then who saw AS with Airbuses (granted via Virgin America but still...)

There was a time when DL was a Boeing/Douglas fortress and the preferred airline of the most vehement 'Murican Europhobes on here. We now see DL as arguably Airbus's strongest advocate and biggest customer in the Americas.

Times change. It would be a surprise, but if there was a platform that would have the chops to make them seriously take note and get the chequebook out for even a coup[le of dozen or so (a drop in the bucket compared to their total fleet), it would be the A220. As a 73G replacement it really would be so compelling they would be nuttier than the in-flight snacks if they weren't seriously taking note.

I don't even necessarily think the acquisition of a couple of dozen A220s would have anything to do with the MAX fiasco. I do honestly believe the A220 is good enough to stand up on its own without any externalities and doesn't need a Boeing crisis for its value to become plain.

To be clear, WN will always be a Boeing airline but in this day and age suggesting there is no room for anything else in their vast fleet (especially given how much better and more efficient the A220 is compared to the 73G) on the basis that it has always been this way, is churlish. WN didn't get to be the biggest and best loco in the world by being churlish and myopic.

Airbus wont "take" WN, but I do really feel there is a key opening right now where the A220 is just too good to ignore, no matter what happens or doesn't happen with the MAX.

Will be a fascinating year.

Aviation737 · Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:20 am

juliuswong wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

"Rules" are meant to be broken.

Never say never in aviation industry. Airbus has flipped more "Boeing-only" customers to them vs Boeing flipping "Airbus-only" customers for past two decades. No one knows for sure what will happen today, tomorrow or in the future.......

I mean Boeing is much older than Airbus. Boeing cant flip Airbus-only customers if there is NO Airbus-only customers to flip. There is also much more Boeing dominated airlines in the previous two decade.

RalXWB · Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:12 am

In the REAL world there are many Airbus only customers, especially when it comes to narrowbodies. No surprise since there are more 320s flying than 737s. And this did not just happen in the last year...

LAX772LR · Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:17 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Winning WN as a customer.

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

Laugh all you want, but I'll be beyond shocked if it doesn't eventually happen.

The desire to tap new markets and/or shield itself from fleet-related disasters like the current MAX saga, could very easily push WN to finally diversify its fleet.

It's not 1979 anymore-- for an airline capable of negotiating/financing/acquiring/maintaining assets on the scale that WN can command, there may conceivably come a point where the Opportunity Cost renders it fiduciarily irresponsible to NOT do so.

Considering what's going on, it's fairly arguable that that time could already be nigh.

CHRISBA35X wrote:
WN didn't get to be the biggest and best loco in the world by being churlish and myopic.

Meh, any objective look at WN's (historical) I.T. will pretty much torpedo the idea of them not being affected by myopia as easily as anyone else...

...and then there's the very existence of B6, a perpetual testament to what was quite arguably the biggest myopic blunder in LoCo history; considering how heavily WN was courted to enter/expand JFK and upstate NY, in the '90s. This was back when DL/AA's ops there were almost entirely international and transcon focused, and when you could basically go bowling on JFK's runways outside of the inbound/outbound Euro rush.

tommy1808 · Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:23 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
-Winning WN as a customer.

I laughed so hard, the neighbors filled a complained.

"Rules" are meant to be broken.

especially when your competition starts flying an aircraft that beats 741 of your fleets (plus ordered) aircraft on seat mile production cost, and is close to the largest aircraft in your future fleet, but with 20% fewer seats seats to fill.....

They want to be a one-type airline, doesn´t have to be a 737.

I´d be surprise to the level of being speechless, but its not like there aren´t hard reasons for WN to have a hard look at that, even if it is just to extract discounts.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 · Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:30 am

LAX772LR wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
WN didn't get to be the biggest and best loco in the world by being churlish and myopic.

Meh, any objective look at WN's (historical) I.T. will pretty much torpedo the idea of them not being affected by myopia as easily as anyone else...

...and then there's the very existence of B6, a perpetual testament to what was quite arguably the biggest myopic blunder in LoCo history; considering how heavily WN was courted to enter/expand JFK and upstate NY, in the '90s. This was back when DL/AA's ops there were almost entirely international and transcon focused, and when you could basically go bowling on JFK's runways outside of the inbound/outbound Euro rush.

being the biggest and best is nice until you are not. Which will happen if you grow slower than your peers...

best regards
Thomas

JerseyFlyer · Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:04 am

Now that the 321XLR is launched, it seems to me (as a non-engineer!) that a stretch to Keesje's A322 would represent "low hanging fruit" ripe for picking.

LAX772LR · Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:24 am

tommy1808 wrote:
being the biggest and best is nice

...it's also something that no one other than AvGeeks would care about.

Investors/owners are going to be looking at the biggest/best ROIs, not size.

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