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Skywatcher
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:26 pm

I would say there is no way in a million years that a Brazilian airline would purchase a BBD aircraft. Maybe now that it's owned by Airbus maybe a 1% chance?

This is despite the fact that AC purchased the EMB-190 and 175.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:46 pm

Let us recap sales campaigns in stasis:
Aeromexico. Is looking to replace Embraer E1 fleet: https://simpleflying.com/aeromexico-reg ... er-e2-195/
This replacement of 10 E175 and 47 E190 will be majorly contested. Personally, I think held off by 2 years. A major consideration will have to be given to MRO servicing. AeroMexico provides significant MRO service to Delta and Delta will perform PW1500G maintenance work. It could go either way, we'll find out probably in 2 years.
Although, if you look at the prior thread, we started talking about AeroMexico 8 months ago. They'll get better terms now.


TAP Portugal: The Neeleman partial ownership is an interesting tidbit. Because Breeze's viability must be questioned, this order could go either way. If Breeze continues, I would think the A220 has the advantage. If not, then Neeleman would have better economics of scale on the E2-195. This will be a fascinating order. Again, probably held off for 2 years.
https://www.airway1.com/tap-air-portuga ... a220-jets/

Qantas:
Looking to replace 75 737s, 20 717s, 17 F100s, and 45 Q-200/300/400 turboprops.
This is not a winner take all order. QF already orders A321NEOs, but will buy more NEOs, or MAX, and possibly a 3rd type. This is actually the one order that could go with both types.

IAG:
We had quite a thread on this A220 vs. E2 competition. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1424001&start=200
Pushed off, but possibly a big order of 2021.

I believe no longer any chance of a SouthWest order. Any new aircraft will have to be the MAX (once it returns to service).

There will be no Farnborough air show this year. :cry2: This means ALC and other leasing companies will have another obstacle to selling. I was very excited last year about this opportunity. This year, I think will be a lost year for aircraft sales.

But thankfully, the A220 is in a good enough position to make it to 2021 and win sales.
I maintain my opinion every A220 sales campaign will be bid against the E2, if for no other reason than to negotiate better pricing. But the same is true of every E2 sales campaign.

While the timeframe has been pushed out, AeroMexico, TAP Portugal, and Qantas will be the best chances near term for mid size orders.

The question is, will EasyJet drop the current A320NEO orders and return for an A220 vs. E2 campaign?
Will FlyDubai go forward with a smaller plane?
Will Qatar return to looking at the type?

Eventually KE will recover, but it will be 3+ years, in my opinion, until they order. Same with Korean ULCCs.

But Thailand will recover earlier. Perhaps one (or more) of their LCCs will sign up for the little A220?

Governments will print money to help restart industry when this is over. For the A220, Canada, USA (Pratt and other vendors), and EU (Airbus) will play a role in financing.


We can debate for the next few months, but that is all it will be. The next order will be on excellent terms.

Lightsaber
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tphuang
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:18 pm

At this point, I think the most important thing for airbus do in North America is to make sure delta and JetBlue don’t defer any of their orders. Aside from that, the start time of breeze is also in doubt. If you have two solid North American Airlines operating it, then a220 will do well here long term.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:01 am

tphuang wrote:
At this point, I think the most important thing for airbus do in North America is to make sure delta and JetBlue don’t defer any of their orders. Aside from that, the start time of breeze is also in doubt. If you have two solid North American Airlines operating it, then a220 will do well here long term.

Delta, JetBlue, and Air Canada will all differ. So they will eventually have 3 solid North American airlines.

But do not forget Swiss/Lufthansa and Air France. AirBaltic looks like a survivor giving enough breath.

To sell, and aircraft needs economy of scale. There are currently 3 engine MRO locations: Pratt (USA), MTU (Germany, EU), and sometime in the future Delta (USA). I'm not sure on airframe MRO. Since Delta uses AeroMexico for other aircraft, I'd bet Delta will nudge them toward an A220 purchase.

Flight simulator training is also needed. Flight Safety on speculation set up near Gatwick. Then another in Frankfurt. AirBaltic in Riga. AirCanada also bought a simulator. JetBlue ordered for Ft. Lauderdale and of course Mirabel. I'm not aware of any Asia flight simulator, but perhaps I missed it.

The A220 already has amazing support. They are going to be fine.

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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:15 pm

tphuang wrote:
At this point, I think the most important thing for airbus do in North America is to make sure delta and JetBlue don’t defer any of their orders. Aside from that, the start time of breeze is also in doubt. If you have two solid North American Airlines operating it, then a220 will do well here long term.


Every program is going to get deferrals. The current situation is unprecedented after all. The question, then, becomes relative. Who gets more or less cancellations and deferrals?

I am going to suggest that the A220 is going to do well. We're easily looking at a decade of lost pax growth. And probably half a decade of lower traffic than 2019. In this environment, the size and versatility of the A220 looks very attractive.

They've locked up some blue chip airlines too. Delta, JetBlue and Air Canada in North America. Korean in Asia. Lufthansa and AFKL groups in Europe. EgyptAir in the Middle East. Latin America, Africa and Australia are the last three markets left where they need a solid blue chip customer. And maybe another large customer or two in Asia. They are well on their way.
 
UA444
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:13 pm

Long hoped UAL would order this plane. I’ve flown on DL’s and they’re great. Way nicer than any 737.
 
zerogt
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:29 am

[quote]There are currently 3 engine MRO locations: Pratt (USA), MTU (Germany, EU), and sometime in the future Delta (USA)./quote

The MTU Shop in Germany does only MRO on the PW1100.

The PW1500 should be done by EME located in Poland.
It's an Jointventure between Lufthansa and MTU founded for PW1000 Family MRO.

Right now the PW1100 MRO is done in the Hanover Facility. While it was originally planed to give the hole PW1000G MRO to the Shop in Poland it now seems that their will be some PW1100 MRO in Hanover due to the high demand.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:15 pm

zerogt wrote:
There are currently 3 engine MRO locations: Pratt (USA), MTU (Germany, EU), and sometime in the future Delta (USA)./quote

The MTU Shop in Germany does only MRO on the PW1100.

The PW1500 should be done by EME located in Poland.
It's an Jointventure between Lufthansa and MTU founded for PW1000 Family MRO.

Right now the PW1100 MRO is done in the Hanover Facility. While it was originally planed to give the hole PW1000G MRO to the Shop in Poland it now seems that their will be some PW1100 MRO in Hanover due to the high demand.

Thank you. The fact MTU is doing a JV in Poland does not change my main point, the A220 has, outside of Asia, established economy of scale in services needed to kickstart future sales once we are the other side of this virus crises.

Lightsaber
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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:51 pm

@lightsaber

How many of these campaigns do you think are still active with the Covid crisis? I would think pretty much all of them are off for at least a year.
 
vfw614
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:22 pm

flightsaber wrote:
Qantas:
Looking to replace 75 737s, 20 717s, 17 F100s, and 45 Q-200/300/400 turboprops. This is not a winner take all order. Q already orders A321NEOs, but will buy more NEOs, or MAX, and possibly a 3rd type. This is actually the one order that could go with both types.


Weren't there major issues with the Embraers E1s Virgin Australia operated down under? What was the problrm for them?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaigns Discussion Thread - 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:19 am

[threeid] the[/threeid]
TObound wrote:
@lightsaber

How many of these campaigns do you think are still active with the Covid crisis? I would think pretty much all of them are off for at least a year.

As I noted, I expect delays of 2 to 3 years.

AirBaltic is negotiating for early deliveries. :faint:

I think IAG will order in 2021.

Looking at AeroMexico, that order might be delayed significantly more than I previously estimated as the need to upgauge is gone.

2020 will have few orders, all brutally discounted.

However, the really low cost per flight of the A220 gives some hope, but not a lot.

Lightsaber
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