BNAMealer
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:17 pm

What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.

As for AA doing BOS-BNA/STL, might be more difficult considering the large WN stations there. I believe BNA in particular just absorbed ATL’s WN BOS frequencies recently.
 
FSDan
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:34 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.


In my view, it's kind of like a smaller scale LAX. BOS is the biggest CSA in the U.S. to not have a significant legacy airline hub, and as a consequence the market is fragmented. Historically almost all the legacies had a larger-than-average operation at BOS. Over the last decade, as Greater Boston's high tech/biotech/higher ed economy has been hot, it seems multiple airlines realized BOS was underserved and figured they could grab a piece of it. B6 first, then more recently DL, and now apparently AA. However, no airline has access to facilities that allow for significant market concentration, so you end up with a case like what we're seeing where multiple airlines are jockeying for position on important routes.
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georgiabill
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:35 pm

I think for AA BOS-RDU-BOS is going to be hard to sustain at 5x per day, given the # of flights on the route already. I am wondering if AA might have had more success attempting BOS-STL-BOS 3x with a combination of mainline and E-175, BOS-SDF-BOS 2x E-175'S, BOS-MEM-BOS 2x E175'S and when AA'S Max are returned to service (if) BOS-SFO-BOS 2x.

These are just my thoughts. SDF and MEM at the moment would no competitors and as has been mentioned AA has loyal flyers in STL.
 
Jshank83
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:37 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.

As for AA doing BOS-BNA/STL, might be more difficult considering the large WN stations there. I believe BNA in particular just absorbed ATL’s WN BOS frequencies recently.


BNA also has 3 airlines on the route already. That’s more than most except major hubs. STL only has WN.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:37 am

Let’s recognize this for what it is- unless a major corporate contract was sunk, BOS-RDU is strategic for AA- it’s a continued response from AA towards DL over the LATAM. This is the second DL announced “focus city” (after Austin) that AA has added flights to. Unless there’s a major corporate contract in play, with 5 carriers on the route there’s no money to be made here and this will be a huge loss for AA- they must have other ambitions with this announcement. The DL acquisition of LATAM stung AA in a way that I think it will take them a long time to hit DL back. Additionally AA has lost its #2 position at BOS, and BOS is the most important base outside of AA’s hubs. And lastly, I think the IND add was not only another hit at DL, but also a shot across the bow to B6 to stay the F* out, as IND (I believe) is the largest unserved domestic market from BOS for B6 (and a strong DL non-hub station).
 
USAirALB
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:00 am

I think people often forget that at one point, AA and US served as BOS' de-facto hub carriers. Need to get to SEA or SAN? Well before AS expanded to the East coast and B6 grew, AA provided the only nonstops on BOS-SEA/SAN. AA was at times the only US carrier flying BOS-Europe. CDG was at one point year round, and did BOS-SNN/MAN as well, and may have tried EDI/GLA I can't remember. At one point BOS had an AM LHR departure as well as two evening departures, usually at least two of those on 772s. BOS at one point had a Flagship Lounge, and AA even held the rights once to BOS-NRT, and would have launched it IIRC but they could not get decently timed slots. They also had their own American Eagle satellite terminal IIRC for regional flights.

US also provided an extensive network ex BOS, with essentially every city in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast having BOS service, plus Florida and the Caribbean.

This isn't to say DL was large at the time, but I would say that AA and US' former large presence in the region has left AA with a huge brand presence as well as a network of loyal FFs akin to DL's presence in the region.

All of AA's hubs are in the top 10 busiest domestic routes from BOS (with the exception of DFW). AA provides incredible level of frequency to its larger hubs from BOS. On a random date in February:

-CLT: 9 daily flights, using a mix of A319/A320/A321/738/752
-DFW: 6 daily flights, using a mix of A321/738
-PHL: 12 daily flights, using a mix of E90/A319/A320/A321/752
-LAX: 4x A321
-PHX: 4 daily flights, using a mix of 738s and A321s
-DCA: 13 daily flights, using a mix of A319/E90
-LGA: 12 daily flights, using a mix of E90/E75
-ORD: 6 daily flights, using a mix of A319/738
-MIA: 7 daily flights, using a mix of A321/738

That's an incredible amount of lift. I personally don't think we will see anything too crazy added in the future. I see BOS-SFO occurring, which would mean AA would serve all top 10 destinations ex BOS except for ATL/MCO/BWI, none of which I see occurring. They like doing seasonal beach routes, so I could see AUA (old AA and US route), BDA (old AA and US route), and STT (old AA route) resuming. I don't see Florida resuming, it's too low-yielding and a bloodbath. Perhaps either STL/MCI/RIC. I also don't see BOS-CDG resuming either.
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FSDan
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:25 am

USAirALB wrote:
I see BOS-SFO occurring, which would mean AA would serve all top 10 destinations ex BOS except for ATL/MCO/BWI, none of which I see occurring.


When does AA get into their new gates in T1 at SFO, and when they do, are they getting a few gates for expansion?
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ScottB
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:46 am

USAirALB wrote:
All of AA's hubs are in the top 10 busiest domestic routes from BOS (with the exception of DFW).


Not quite true. Based on 2019Q2 O&D traffic numbers between airport pairs, ORD was #1, DCA was #2, LAX was #3, LGA was #7, PHL was #8, and DFW was #10. CLT was #20, PHX was #21, and MIA was #26.

USAirALB wrote:
They also had their own American Eagle satellite terminal IIRC for regional flights.

US also provided an extensive network ex BOS, with essentially every city in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast having BOS service, plus Florida and the Caribbean.


That satellite terminal is still there; it's adjacent to the ARFF station across from the AA side of Terminal B. It was once the Amelia Earhart General Aviation Terminal. Back in the summer of 2000, US offered over 200 daily departures from BOS. Most of it was on US Express, and that mostly meant prop flying in those days -- so even with all those flights there are probably more seats in total offered today.

BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.


B6 management has stated in the past that BOS was their most profitable hub. The Boston area ranks 5th for per capita income in the U.S. and the local economy is strong.
 
Indy
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:24 pm

I'm looking at aa.com and RDU-BOS. The new flights haven't even been loaded yet and I'm seeing one day fares to BOS as low as $71 in May. Are those fares sustainable?
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tphuang
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:56 pm

FSDan wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.


In my view, it's kind of like a smaller scale LAX. BOS is the biggest CSA in the U.S. to not have a significant legacy airline hub, and as a consequence the market is fragmented. Historically almost all the legacies had a larger-than-average operation at BOS. Over the last decade, as Greater Boston's high tech/biotech/higher ed economy has been hot, it seems multiple airlines realized BOS was underserved and figured they could grab a piece of it. B6 first, then more recently DL, and now apparently AA. However, no airline has access to facilities that allow for significant market concentration, so you end up with a case like what we're seeing where multiple airlines are jockeying for position on important routes.

Which airline in LAX is going to hit 40% domestic market share? BOS has now gone from mostly a little underserved to overserved in a lot of market. If DL didn't make its incursion, I think AA would've been happy to stick with its old route structure out of BOS.

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA is at worst a #3 at BOS. At NYC, they are #4 now. They are at an irreversible position in NYC due to their cuts and loss of ff. Their declines at certainly JFK markets in the past 2 years is pretty awful. If they don't do something at BOS, they will start losing a lot of ff there too. Just by adding a few important domestic market, AA could re-affirm their position as legacy of choice out of BOS. Who cares they don't fly to BUF or CLE or MKE or JAX if they have the best combined schedules to NYC/DC/London/LA/Chicago/Philadelphia/Dallas?


AA is less than 8% behind B6 in NYC and I'd argue that EWR and JFK/LGA have relatively limited overlap. I don't think AA's position in NYC is unrecoverable -- I just don't think current management can or will fix it. DoUgIe handed LGA to DL on a silver platter because the Tempe braintrust didn't understand how to make money at LGA. Even now AA seems more focused on routes with limited competition from LGA rather than the places New Yorkers want to go. They fly non-stop to CAK, ROA, CHO, and BGR -- but not to DEN, FLL, or IAH.

RDU and IND won't make AA the domestic carrier of choice from BOS if they don't serve DEN or ATL or MCO or TPA. And Delta's impressive transatlantic expansion from BOS will make it that much more difficult for AA to be the legacy of choice. I'd rather connect at AMS over LHR any day of the week.

AA faces structural disadvantage at NYC with over 100 fewer slots at both LGA/JFK. At BOS, it only has 3 fewer gates than DL. And because its hubs are all large business markets out of BOS, it's always going to have more mainline than DL. So it can achieve large market share with fewer gates.

I would argue AA is still legacy of choice at BOS because it was the legacy of choice and it has not lost most of its ff yet. That's why it's important for it to launch a few more P2P routes so that it does not lose more ff. At NYC, it has clearly lost its ff already. You don't lose this much pricing power at JFK in 2 years without ff fleeing on mass.

As for international stuff, OW is way ahead of other alliances to Asia since CX and JL offers much better coverage of Asia than KE. And it now has the only African airline to BOS. And to continental Europe, AA and its partners have about the same number of flight as DL/partners outside the peak summer season. I mean if you just want to fly to Paris/Amsterdam or Rome, DL/ST is your choice. But if you want to fly to London/Ireland/Spain, AA/OW is the way to go.

tphuang wrote:
AA dropped BOS-PIT because it was a giant bloodbath that really doesn't seem to be as important of a business market as the recent ones they added. There is no chance DL survives on that route if there is a recession or oil spike. And that applies to a lot of routes DL has out of BOS. AA might have fewer gates at BOS but those gates are used much less heavily. They need to keep using them to not lose gates. There is plenty of room for them to add more. DL is close to being tapped out at terminal A. As for currying favor with massport, AA also started PHL-ORH and they have certainly lost gates at BOS already.

Think about it this way. B6 is adding close to 30% capacity at BOS YoY this summer. DL's response have been cutting back to Florida, adding a flight to CVG, AUS and SEA.


Except BOS-PIT was a market with lots of frequent flyer loyalty at both ends. PIT was US's largest hub until their first bankruptcy. BOS was a major US focus city -- they had 200 daily departures back in the 1990s. Heck, BOS-RDU was once an AA hub-to-hub route and they dropped that. Given the track record, I can't understand why you'd think AA would be more willing to sustain losses at BOS than DL.

I suspect that DL will upgauge to 717s and A220s if they choose to grow at BOS, just as a fair bit of B6's growth is also from increase of gauge.

Except that's not what I said. The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.

Indy wrote:
I'm looking at aa.com and RDU-BOS. The new flights haven't even been loaded yet and I'm seeing one day fares to BOS as low as $71 in May. Are those fares sustainable?

oh, you think $71 is low? You have not seen some of the $40-50 fares out of BOS yet. DL in peak summer season get $85 to $90 per seat to BUF/PHL/PIT on E70s. It's too bad B6 wasn't the one that entered IND, cause it would bring the fares down a lot more than AA on BOS-IND.
 
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:12 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I also don't see BOS-CDG resuming either.


It could happen again, if not all year long at least during peak summer season. If they ever resume flying BOS-CDG, that flight will be an A321NeoLR. They are probably waiting to have enough of them before resuming that flight.
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
Except that's not what I said. The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.


I find it hard to believe that DL will not respond, DL needs to stay strong in markets where they have strength at the opposite end like IND & RDU to make up for some of their weaker routes from BOS.
Image

This is a pretty good write up on the new flights:

https://www.flydataguy.com/2020/01/amer ... irect.html
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VS11
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:35 pm

This type of competition between the mega US carriers was bound to return. I am somewhat surprised it took this long after the last merger wave. AA is absolutely trying to crap on DL's Boston strategy. Maybe AA waited for their new Terminal B at Logan to be completed but I am glad for this "shock and awe" action. Definitely interesting to see how far AA will go. Do we hear BOS-AMS on AA 787? :D :box:
 
tphuang
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:59 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Except that's not what I said. The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.


I find it hard to believe that DL will not respond, DL needs to stay strong in markets where they have strength at the opposite end like IND & RDU to make up for some of their weaker routes from BOS.
Image

This is a pretty good write up on the new flights:

https://www.flydataguy.com/2020/01/amer ... irect.html


That chart is misleading since it doesn't account for the capacity/CASM of the aircraft involved. You'd normally expect much higher RASM from RJ or low capacity mainline aircraft than A321. IND is one of the few above-system average margin route out of BOS for DL, the others being DTW/CVG/CMH/SLC/LGA/MKE, basically DTW/SLC/LGA + routes with no B6 competition. However, there is no way RDU is an above system average route once you account for the combined CASM of B717 and E75. I just don't see the reason for DL to try to push AA out here. Would they rather have B6 or AA as their competition here? RDU I assume will get an extra flight from both DL and B6.
 
FSDan
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.


In my view, it's kind of like a smaller scale LAX. BOS is the biggest CSA in the U.S. to not have a significant legacy airline hub, and as a consequence the market is fragmented. Historically almost all the legacies had a larger-than-average operation at BOS. Over the last decade, as Greater Boston's high tech/biotech/higher ed economy has been hot, it seems multiple airlines realized BOS was underserved and figured they could grab a piece of it. B6 first, then more recently DL, and now apparently AA. However, no airline has access to facilities that allow for significant market concentration, so you end up with a case like what we're seeing where multiple airlines are jockeying for position on important routes.

Which airline in LAX is going to hit 40% domestic market share? BOS has now gone from mostly a little underserved to overserved in a lot of market. If DL didn't make its incursion, I think AA would've been happy to stick with its old route structure out of BOS.


I didn't say BOS was an exact replica of LAX, but I do think it's closer to LAX than a lot of other potential comparisons. You have B6 with ~200 daily flights, DL with ~150, AA with ~100, UA with ~40, etc. Lots of airlines have major ops. Both airports also have a large number of international airlines (I don't know why we'd leave the international side out of this comparison...). If you look at other top 10 CSAs, these are the 200+ departure hub operations we're looking at (departure numbers are rough approximations):

1) NYC: UA at EWR >400 departures, DL at LGA >250 departures, DL at JFK >200 departures
2) LA: AA at LAX ~200 departures
3) CHI: UA at ORD >600 departures, AA at ORD ~500 departures, WN at MDW >250 departures
4) WAS: UA at IAD >250 departures, AA at DCA >250 departures, WN at BWI >200 departures
5) SF: UA at SFO >300 departures
6) BOS: B6 at BOS ~200 departures
7) DFW: AA at DFW >900 departures, WN at DAL ~200 departures
8) PHL: AA at PHL ~400 departures
9) HOU: UA at IAH >550 departures
10) MIA: AA at MIA >300 departures

I suppose SFO would be the other somewhat similar comparison to BOS, but UA at SFO has much more distance between them and the next closest competitors than B6 does at BOS. So, BOS is somewhere between LAX and SFO as far as the competitive landscape, IMHO.
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:48 pm

Perhaps Delta will retaliate by announcing RDU-LHR daily service... and DFW service.. that would really go after AA
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Ishrion
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:49 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Perhaps Delta will retaliate by announcing RDU-LHR daily service... and DFW service.. that would really go after AA


Slots?
 
kavok
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:57 pm

Ishrion wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Perhaps Delta will retaliate by announcing RDU-LHR daily service... and DFW service.. that would really go after AA


Slots?


They could use the PDX-LHR slot...
 
ScottB
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
AA faces structural disadvantage at NYC with over 100 fewer slots at both LGA/JFK. At BOS, it only has 3 fewer gates than DL. And because its hubs are all large business markets out of BOS, it's always going to have more mainline than DL. So it can achieve large market share with fewer gates.

I would argue AA is still legacy of choice at BOS because it was the legacy of choice and it has not lost most of its ff yet. That's why it's important for it to launch a few more P2P routes so that it does not lose more ff. At NYC, it has clearly lost its ff already. You don't lose this much pricing power at JFK in 2 years without ff fleeing on mass.


The structural advantage in NYC is less severe than you make it out to be. They still have more than enough slots and gates to serve the top 30 to 50 domestic O&Ds from NYC and maintain a useful transatlantic presence. The FFs are fleeing because AA's product isn't as good as DL's and because the network is worse. Neither of those are due to slots/gates.

And AA isn't the legacy of choice at BOS anymore. That ship sailed with all the routes that have been cut by AA and its merger partner over the past 20 years. DL has more comprehensive coverage of the top domestic markets from BOS and the product is better. They have better international coverage from BOS as well -- I'd sooner connect at CDG than LHR.

tphuang wrote:
As for international stuff, OW is way ahead of other alliances to Asia since CX and JL offers much better coverage of Asia than KE. And it now has the only African airline to BOS. And to continental Europe, AA and its partners have about the same number of flight as DL/partners outside the peak summer season. I mean if you just want to fly to Paris/Amsterdam or Rome, DL/ST is your choice. But if you want to fly to London/Ireland/Spain, AA/OW is the way to go.


KL has better coverage of the UK regions via AMS than BA does via LHR. ICN is probably the single best connecting hub in East Asia -- and has better service to smaller Japanese markets than you'll find on JL from NRT. ICN is better for getting to smaller Chinese markets than HKG. CDG is a better hub for getting to Africa than CMN. And that summer peak is important.

tphuang wrote:
The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.


Wall Street is going to give AA a lot less leeway on these sorts of routes because they're already underperforming DL by a wide margin. DL's operating margin in Q3 was well over double AA's. They posted over two-and-a-half times AA's operating profit with $600 million lower operating expenses. Delta's profit-sharing payout for 2019 was larger than AA's net profit for the first three quarters (and may be larger than their full-year net profit). I think AA is going to face tougher questions about strategic moves when the rest of their system just isn't performing as well.
 
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Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
What is with this obsession with BOS? I can’t imagine anyone is really making money here.


In my view, it's kind of like a smaller scale LAX. BOS is the biggest CSA in the U.S. to not have a significant legacy airline hub, and as a consequence the market is fragmented. Historically almost all the legacies had a larger-than-average operation at BOS. Over the last decade, as Greater Boston's high tech/biotech/higher ed economy has been hot, it seems multiple airlines realized BOS was underserved and figured they could grab a piece of it. B6 first, then more recently DL, and now apparently AA. However, no airline has access to facilities that allow for significant market concentration, so you end up with a case like what we're seeing where multiple airlines are jockeying for position on important routes.

Which airline in LAX is going to hit 40% domestic market share? BOS has now gone from mostly a little underserved to overserved in a lot of market. If DL didn't make its incursion, I think AA would've been happy to stick with its old route structure out of BOS.

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA is at worst a #3 at BOS. At NYC, they are #4 now. They are at an irreversible position in NYC due to their cuts and loss of ff. Their declines at certainly JFK markets in the past 2 years is pretty awful. If they don't do something at BOS, they will start losing a lot of ff there too. Just by adding a few important domestic market, AA could re-affirm their position as legacy of choice out of BOS. Who cares they don't fly to BUF or CLE or MKE or JAX if they have the best combined schedules to NYC/DC/London/LA/Chicago/Philadelphia/Dallas?


AA is less than 8% behind B6 in NYC and I'd argue that EWR and JFK/LGA have relatively limited overlap. I don't think AA's position in NYC is unrecoverable -- I just don't think current management can or will fix it. DoUgIe handed LGA to DL on a silver platter because the Tempe braintrust didn't understand how to make money at LGA. Even now AA seems more focused on routes with limited competition from LGA rather than the places New Yorkers want to go. They fly non-stop to CAK, ROA, CHO, and BGR -- but not to DEN, FLL, or IAH.

RDU and IND won't make AA the domestic carrier of choice from BOS if they don't serve DEN or ATL or MCO or TPA. And Delta's impressive transatlantic expansion from BOS will make it that much more difficult for AA to be the legacy of choice. I'd rather connect at AMS over LHR any day of the week.

AA faces structural disadvantage at NYC with over 100 fewer slots at both LGA/JFK. At BOS, it only has 3 fewer gates than DL. And because its hubs are all large business markets out of BOS, it's always going to have more mainline than DL. So it can achieve large market share with fewer gates.

I would argue AA is still legacy of choice at BOS because it was the legacy of choice and it has not lost most of its ff yet. That's why it's important for it to launch a few more P2P routes so that it does not lose more ff. At NYC, it has clearly lost its ff already. You don't lose this much pricing power at JFK in 2 years without ff fleeing on mass.

As for international stuff, OW is way ahead of other alliances to Asia since CX and JL offers much better coverage of Asia than KE. And it now has the only African airline to BOS. And to continental Europe, AA and its partners have about the same number of flight as DL/partners outside the peak summer season. I mean if you just want to fly to Paris/Amsterdam or Rome, DL/ST is your choice. But if you want to fly to London/Ireland/Spain, AA/OW is the way to go.

tphuang wrote:
AA dropped BOS-PIT because it was a giant bloodbath that really doesn't seem to be as important of a business market as the recent ones they added. There is no chance DL survives on that route if there is a recession or oil spike. And that applies to a lot of routes DL has out of BOS. AA might have fewer gates at BOS but those gates are used much less heavily. They need to keep using them to not lose gates. There is plenty of room for them to add more. DL is close to being tapped out at terminal A. As for currying favor with massport, AA also started PHL-ORH and they have certainly lost gates at BOS already.

Think about it this way. B6 is adding close to 30% capacity at BOS YoY this summer. DL's response have been cutting back to Florida, adding a flight to CVG, AUS and SEA.


Except BOS-PIT was a market with lots of frequent flyer loyalty at both ends. PIT was US's largest hub until their first bankruptcy. BOS was a major US focus city -- they had 200 daily departures back in the 1990s. Heck, BOS-RDU was once an AA hub-to-hub route and they dropped that. Given the track record, I can't understand why you'd think AA would be more willing to sustain losses at BOS than DL.

I suspect that DL will upgauge to 717s and A220s if they choose to grow at BOS, just as a fair bit of B6's growth is also from increase of gauge.

Except that's not what I said. The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.

Indy wrote:
I'm looking at aa.com and RDU-BOS. The new flights haven't even been loaded yet and I'm seeing one day fares to BOS as low as $71 in May. Are those fares sustainable?

oh, you think $71 is low? You have not seen some of the $40-50 fares out of BOS yet. DL in peak summer season get $85 to $90 per seat to BUF/PHL/PIT on E70s. It's too bad B6 wasn't the one that entered IND, cause it would bring the fares down a lot more than AA on BOS-IND.




A few things ill respond to here, AA has a large FF base on both ends of RDU-BOS so AA going head first will be just fine for them, AA in NYC has about 285 slots combined JFK/LGA, 170 at LGA and 115 at JFK, AA can position itself to block further delta growth without having to divest in other markets to grow in Boston, They added more gates than they gave up at BOS by shuffling position in the B terminal at BOS, PHL-ORH just like DTW-ORH is a joke route to get more favor with Massport which you are correct, if both airlines were smart they would switch it to their southeast hubs CLT/ATL.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3702
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:25 pm

ScottB wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA faces structural disadvantage at NYC with over 100 fewer slots at both LGA/JFK. At BOS, it only has 3 fewer gates than DL. And because its hubs are all large business markets out of BOS, it's always going to have more mainline than DL. So it can achieve large market share with fewer gates.

I would argue AA is still legacy of choice at BOS because it was the legacy of choice and it has not lost most of its ff yet. That's why it's important for it to launch a few more P2P routes so that it does not lose more ff. At NYC, it has clearly lost its ff already. You don't lose this much pricing power at JFK in 2 years without ff fleeing on mass.


The structural advantage in NYC is less severe than you make it out to be. They still have more than enough slots and gates to serve the top 30 to 50 domestic O&Ds from NYC and maintain a useful transatlantic presence. The FFs are fleeing because AA's product isn't as good as DL's and because the network is worse. Neither of those are due to slots/gates.

And AA isn't the legacy of choice at BOS anymore. That ship sailed with all the routes that have been cut by AA and its merger partner over the past 20 years. DL has more comprehensive coverage of the top domestic markets from BOS and the product is better. They have better international coverage from BOS as well -- I'd sooner connect at CDG than LHR.

tphuang wrote:
As for international stuff, OW is way ahead of other alliances to Asia since CX and JL offers much better coverage of Asia than KE. And it now has the only African airline to BOS. And to continental Europe, AA and its partners have about the same number of flight as DL/partners outside the peak summer season. I mean if you just want to fly to Paris/Amsterdam or Rome, DL/ST is your choice. But if you want to fly to London/Ireland/Spain, AA/OW is the way to go.


KL has better coverage of the UK regions via AMS than BA does via LHR. ICN is probably the single best connecting hub in East Asia -- and has better service to smaller Japanese markets than you'll find on JL from NRT. ICN is better for getting to smaller Chinese markets than HKG. CDG is a better hub for getting to Africa than CMN. And that summer peak is important.

tphuang wrote:
The question is what kind of response with DL make here. I think it will just be one extra flight RDU and do nothing at IND. As for sustaining losses, it's not a bad idea for AA to sustain losses on a few non-hub markets to retain its ff base at BOS/AUS/RDU while DL have to sustain losses at far more markets.

You completely overestimate DL point of sale at BOS. Just to take a look at BOS-BNA, a route B6 and WN serve with A320/B737. DL had upgauged to A220 for this summer, but then downgauged back down to E70. Why do you think that is? It just can't fill on the flights with the frequency it wants to offer. That's another market AA is speculated to be entering. If DL has to start worrying about splitting legacy customers with AA on some of these routes, it's really going to have problems.


Wall Street is going to give AA a lot less leeway on these sorts of routes because they're already underperforming DL by a wide margin. DL's operating margin in Q3 was well over double AA's. They posted over two-and-a-half times AA's operating profit with $600 million lower operating expenses. Delta's profit-sharing payout for 2019 was larger than AA's net profit for the first three quarters (and may be larger than their full-year net profit). I think AA is going to face tougher questions about strategic moves when the rest of their system just isn't performing as well.


I'm sorry, but your reply is not based on actual data. You are making conclusions based on your belief that people are picking DL over AA based on product. The reality is that AA's NYC yield declines relative to DL/B6 didn't start until late 2017 and early 2018. Keep in mind from late 2017 to now, DL and B6 relative yields on the routes I follow are relatively stagnant. And AA's yield numbers were pretty consistent from 2015 to 2017. And these yield declines have become especially pronounced in the data I'm looking at in the past 3 or 4 quarters when the cuts really picked up. And if you follow FT's board, you will see plenty of posts of former AA NYC ff jumping ship starting in 2018. At this point, it would be hard for me to see AA getting those ff back. They still clearly do have some higher yielding types at NYC, so there is still room for further drop.

As for BOS, I don't have data back to when they were clearly the largest carrier. I do have data to 2015/2016 when they were clearly the largest legacy carrier in BOS. As late as 2016, AA was a lot closer in market share to B6 than DL is to B6 right now. It would be hard to argue they were not the carrier of choice of business travelers at that time. At least on the routes I look at, there is no evidence of a decline in their BOS to hub market performance from that point until now. They were the highest yielding carrier when they exited BOS-BUF/PIT. But AA has clearly realized that if it didn't give its customers something, they are going to leave like they did at NYC. So, that's why it's adding some P2P routes out of BOS to keep the customers around.

As for your commentary on international stuff, I just see a lot of "I prefer DL product and DL JV hub locations, so I think DL will win". For example, i don't know anyone flying to Asia regularly that would think ICN gives more option than HKG and NRT. Do me a favor, pick some of the biggest market in TPAC region outside of China/Japan/Korea and see how many flights there are to these places on JL + CX vs KE. That should give you an indication of how much easier it is to fly from BOS to places like BKK, SIN, TPE, KUL, SGN through OW vs ST.
 
GSOflyerDL
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:24 am

adamh8297 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:

Two words for ILM : Outer Banks

ILM is actually quite far from the Outer Banks. Much more easier for travelers to use any of the airports in Southern Virginia.

There are some popular beaches near ILM (Bald Head Island, Sunset Beach, Oak Island, Topsail, etc.). They aren’t really to my taste as they are very much family and condo/beach house rental oriented but they are popular. ILM is decently sized city with attractions. It isn’t SAV or CHS but it is nice and has industry, especially film.


Ahhh I read somewhere Cape Fear on up was considered Outer Banks - From a closer look on a maps - that is a bit different.

A lot of my friends dive "Outer Banks" and tend to go out of Morehead City which is 90 miles away from ILM and EWN is closet. Boat rides to dive sites are long.


Most still fly into RDU and drive due east from there. ILM is now a sizeable tourist destination in its on right. Lots of Boston money on Figure 8 as well.
DL Diamond Medallion 360
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 2142
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:16 am

sargester wrote:

A few things ill respond to here, AA has a large FF base on both ends of RDU-BOS so AA going head first will be just fine for them, AA in NYC has about 285 slots combined JFK/LGA, 170 at LGA and 115 at JFK, AA can position itself to block further delta growth without having to divest in other markets to grow in Boston, They added more gates than they gave up at BOS by shuffling position in the B terminal at BOS, PHL-ORH just like DTW-ORH is a joke route to get more favor with Massport which you are correct, if both airlines were smart they would switch it to their southeast hubs CLT/ATL.


Correction AA *used* to have a large FF base on both ends of RDU/BOS. Then AA abandoned nearly all of the P2P from RDU and BOS. Not surprisingly, then the FFs abandoned AA (at least the HVCs that really matter and pay a prem for non-stops) for the competition. AA may very well be able to win many back, but considering the AA product isn’t up to par with DL/B6 who have the FF base now, it will be an uphill battle.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25913
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:23 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
sargester wrote:

A few things ill respond to here, AA has a large FF base on both ends of RDU-BOS so AA going head first will be just fine for them, AA in NYC has about 285 slots combined JFK/LGA, 170 at LGA and 115 at JFK, AA can position itself to block further delta growth without having to divest in other markets to grow in Boston, They added more gates than they gave up at BOS by shuffling position in the B terminal at BOS, PHL-ORH just like DTW-ORH is a joke route to get more favor with Massport which you are correct, if both airlines were smart they would switch it to their southeast hubs CLT/ATL.


Correction AA *used* to have a large FF base on both ends of RDU/BOS. Then AA abandoned nearly all of the P2P from RDU and BOS. Not surprisingly, then the FFs abandoned AA (at least the HVCs that really matter and pay a prem for non-stops) for the competition. AA may very well be able to win many back, but considering the AA product isn’t up to par with DL/B6 who have the FF base now, it will be an uphill battle.


No, there is no "correction." AA absolutely still has large FF bases on both ends. In fact it's barely smaller (or maybe even a tad larger) than Delta at Boston. I agree with you - the AA product is not up to par with either, it's best compared to Spirit and Frontier, but the FF base on both ends is significant.
a.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1750
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:33 am

AA should consider BOS-AMS/CDG, if even seasonal. That would make OneWorld the top dog in BOS by far and will completely outmaneuver AF/KL/DL.
 
wenders825
Posts: 363
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:29 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:53 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
sargester wrote:

A few things ill respond to here, AA has a large FF base on both ends of RDU-BOS so AA going head first will be just fine for them, AA in NYC has about 285 slots combined JFK/LGA, 170 at LGA and 115 at JFK, AA can position itself to block further delta growth without having to divest in other markets to grow in Boston, They added more gates than they gave up at BOS by shuffling position in the B terminal at BOS, PHL-ORH just like DTW-ORH is a joke route to get more favor with Massport which you are correct, if both airlines were smart they would switch it to their southeast hubs CLT/ATL.


Correction AA *used* to have a large FF base on both ends of RDU/BOS. Then AA abandoned nearly all of the P2P from RDU and BOS. Not surprisingly, then the FFs abandoned AA (at least the HVCs that really matter and pay a prem for non-stops) for the competition. AA may very well be able to win many back, but considering the AA product isn’t up to par with DL/B6 who have the FF base now, it will be an uphill battle.

upgrade list on an RDU-CLT last week pushed 50. but sure, they don't have many FFs in RDU anymore. sure.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 454
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: AA launching BOS to 3 new cities

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:35 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Looking at a June Monday, that's 6x DL, 6X B6, and 1X F9. No way can BOS-RDU sustain four carriers at those frequencies.


More like defending AA’s LONG-standing RDU-BOS traffic against Delta’s incursion. BOS-IND is also a decades-old Allegheny/Air/Airways, and later AA run that was pulled down only in the last few years.

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