I don't think maximum seating at 194 would be logical for them. In terms of exit limit of 2 pairs of doors and 2 pairs of windows exit. It would only allowed them 189 maximum seats inside the cabin.
In order to get 194 seats, they have to install an extra pair of doors between the fuselage for 5 extra seats which would be quite redundant.
I suspect we are at cross-purposes - An A320NEO can absolutely fit 194 seats - ask Cebu Pacific.
A proposed A220-500? 190 seats sounds absolutely spot on to me
I wouldn't hold my breath though.
I'm convinced it will happen, but suspect there are some pre-conditions that apply, such as:-
1. Resolution of the ownership of CSALP
2. Airbus having time to plan the ramp-down of the A320NEO and ramp up of A321NEO that inevitably accompanies it
3. Airbus having a clear view of what Boeing intend in narrowbody space
4. The volume of A220's in service, and thus their supporting infrastructure, being much greater
5. Production volumes being well ramped up.
I can't see a decision to proceed in much less than 3 years, and hence I don't see an EIS before about 2028
99% certain it will happen though
You make good conditions.
1. Airbus needs to have a business case. So they will buy more out.
2. I agree Airbus needs to plan the A320 to A321 transition. In particular Tolouse.
3. Too late. By the time Boeing broadcasts what they are doing, Airbus missed an opportunity to grow.
4. Agreed. Moreso that in service i
ssues are resolved more than volume in service.
5. Volumes matter. That means more automation and Mobile.
I'm a huge fan of the A220, but this is a business case.
The end goal is commoditize -8 pricing. As the A225 has subsystem and weight advantages (per my estimate), it will thrive. But first, a business case.
Regarding point 3 -
For clarity, I don't expect Airbus to "stop growing" whilst waiting for clearer resolution on Boeing's narrowbody policy.
On the contrary, I fully expect both A320 series deliveries and A220 series deliveries to continue to grow apace pretty much throughout the decade.
I also expect them to continue to position "spoiler" derivatives (such as the A321XLR) in places that a) are technically easy, and b) continue to limit Boeing's choices
It's clear though that the ball is in Boeing's court as far as narrowbody strategy goes.
I can't see the MAX going away in the short term - the issues people are seeing are driven by lack of trust, not lack of solutions.
And there are too many orders in backlog, especially for the MAX-8
Smart money seems to be on a new single-aisle positioned roughly in the range of MAX-9 to 757-200 size to take on the A321, and cover off what is left of MOM space
I don't want to divert this into being an NSA/NMA thread - the point is that I think Airbus will want to see what the Boeing solution looks like, before concluding their own strategy for A320 NEO family development/replacement, and thus exactly where they would want an A220-500 to fit in underneath.
c. 3 years from now feels about right for that.
And some of the other dependencies we listed will not be concluded any quicker.
I don't see an A220-500 launch decision coming until 2022 at the earliest.
That it WILL come is not in doubt in my mind.
A 72t-73t MTOW, 42.9m long, 165-190 seat A220-500, with 3,250Nm range with 165 pax, and 2,750Nm range with 190 pax, eminently capable of full load transcons, is just too good an opportunity to miss. As well as replacing the A320NEO, it could make a right mess of the 737-8MAX and thus Boeing's overall small aircraft strategy.