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DylanHarvey
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:41 am

I’m guessing they’ll keep the high MTOW and PIP’d ones for performance reasons.
 
LTCM
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:51 am

flee wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
1) You try to find 853 people who will reliably and regularly fill up the plane;

2) You handle to emergency evacuation test and see how long it takes to get 853 people off the plane.


Emergency evacuation test certified 873 participants (max capacity pax config + crew) back in 2006

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... -test.html

I am always sceptical of the evacuation certification test procedure. It always assumes that the aircraft is intact and in perfect condition. In many cases, when pax have to evacuate an aircraft, it is following some incident or crash. The plane will have broken bits and pieces as well as blockage to the emergency exits. It will take much longer to evacuate!

Sad to see the EK A380 go but this is a scheduled retirement - so no big deal. For me, the A380 is still the most comfortable aircraft to fly in and I will always try to book on an airline that operates to the destination I am travelling to.



You misunderstand the point of the evac test. The test isn't too see if a plane can be evacuated in 90 seconds in every possible combination of events. Of course some crashes will be worse than others, but that's not the point. The goal of the process is to subject each aircraft to a standard set of procedures to ensure they are safe. They aren't looking to see if passengers can evac a flipped plane, in the ocean, broken in half, and surrounded by sharks.
 
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fraspotter
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:19 am

Jetport wrote:
Why did they repaint it white, seems like a waste of money? Even if this one is leased and the owner wants it white, you would think Emirates would split the savings of not having to repaint it with the owner and they would gladly accept since there is a 99.99% chance this aircraft gets scrapped.


Airlines will often do this to protect their brand. As EK's scheme was already majority white it was more just to cover up the logo and titles. A tiny drop in the bucket for an airline like EK.
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airhansa
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:57 am

SEPilot wrote:
airhansa wrote:
I still wonder why no airline has managed to make the A380 work as a low-cost cattle class plane? An all-economy seating A380 can host 853 passengers.

Around $30 per km in fuel.

ATH to SIN is about 5621km, making fuel costs around $168630. Divided by 853 it would mean $197 as a minimum ticket price. I didn't include staffing costs as a low cost country can provide cheaper staffing, but overall a ticket price lower than $300 doesn't seem that illogical.

For lower distance routes that are busy it's possible to have prices as lower than $50 in terms of fuel.

Though Emirates may not get away with it, surely India or a Eastern European country like Greece could?

Simple. No airline can reliably get 853 people to travel the given route at the same time day in and day out. Yes, it works great and makes money when full, but it bleeds badly when not. The risk is just too much.


I always question this because cheaper flights tend to be at unfathomable times anyway, so most PAX would not be so against choosing flights with inconvenient times. I believe that the market for the low cost A380 would be mid-haul and long-haul low cost travel in Asia, where large densities and hub-spoke travel are still very common.

If anything, the future of the low cost short haul airline is more in doubt as low cost trains on high speed railways become more ubiquitous. Now numerous countries are offering speeds and services comparable to the Acela Express as very low cost budget trains - Germany has a new operator of budget low cost travel trains that travel on regular tracks at speeds of 200 km/h.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:02 am

lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Especially since the 'passengers' doing the test know in advance they are going to evacuate. They are much more likely to pay attention to the flight attendants safety and evacuation briefing.

During the evacuation test do the 'passengers' bring on carry-on bags that go in the overhead bins and under the seats to mimic a real world situation?


True that the test doesn't represent a crash condition, but it does cover a whole bunch of cases where the hull is intact. It's pretty realistic in that only half the exits are used, its dark, yes there is luggage in the aisle etc. Hard to believe it can be done, but the A380 did it in less than 80 seconds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jSOkznc2dM

Because people get hurt in the testing, neither the FAA nor EASA want to do anything more aggressive. The regulatory agencies prefer "by analysis" for this type of testing.

The A380 required a test as evacuating two decks was new. Nothing may be extrapolated, it must all be interpolated. So a taller deck height requires a new test.

The high density A380 didn't take off, literally. The market went to smaller aircraft repositioned as needed.

Lightsaber


I recall prior to the A380 test one of the big worries, and justified the test, was how the slides from the upper deck worked. Would passengers freeze up or go too fast that there were a lot of injuries. In this case "by analysis" is the correct answer. If travel distances, exit door capacities, aisle widths, etc. are within the bounds of the code, the results should be favorable.

Currently it is only NB planes that there are a number of examples where actual in service seating is close to the theoretical capacity. It seems like 747, 777, 787, A330, and A350 rarely are over 80% of the maximum capacity.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:01 am

Jetport wrote:
Why did they repaint it white, seems like a waste of money? Even if this one is leased and the owner wants it white, you would think Emirates would split the savings of not having to repaint it with the owner and they would gladly accept since there is a 99.99% chance this aircraft gets scrapped.


Who said that they repainted it? Just peel off the Emirates decals and job done.
 
TC957
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:53 am

ELBOB wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Why did they repaint it white, seems like a waste of money? Even if this one is leased and the owner wants it white, you would think Emirates would split the savings of not having to repaint it with the owner and they would gladly accept since there is a 99.99% chance this aircraft gets scrapped.


Who said that they repainted it? Just peel off the Emirates decals and job done.

I stand corrected, but I doubt it's that simple to just " peel off the EK decals ". For one thing that would have left outlined marks where the titles and tail colours were.
 
RB211trent
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:45 pm

TC957 wrote:
ELBOB wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Why did they repaint it white, seems like a waste of money? Even if this one is leased and the owner wants it white, you would think Emirates would split the savings of not having to repaint it with the owner and they would gladly accept since there is a 99.99% chance this aircraft gets scrapped.


Who said that they repainted it? Just peel off the Emirates decals and job done.

I stand corrected, but I doubt it's that simple to just " peel off the EK decals ". For one thing that would have left outlined marks where the titles and tail colours were.

The Emirates basic livery is not applied with decals. They do paint out the livery but not the entire aircraft, this can be seen as the A380 ident is still on the nose. As it’s mainly white anyway it’s not that big a job.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:45 pm

cockpitherald wrote:
Emirates will also likely remove two of its aging A380s, registered as A6-EDA and A6-EDC, that are stored at Dubai International Airport.

https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/06/14/emi ... tire-more/

Interesting juxtaposition of reports from all around the web across months of time.

STC talks about keeping all but three A380s long term at the same time talking about scavenging (presumably low time) landing gear off A380s close to needing heavy checks that are too expensive to justiy. It sounds like the plan is for DWC to become an A380 bone yard.

cpd wrote:
All the ones I flew on were usually very full. But I’m flying on the major very busy routes. On the flip side I’ve been on fairly empty B777s of Emirates.

The article above says that A6-ADB's last revenue flight was Muscat to DXB. I bet that it wasn't full and that it lost money for EK.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:02 pm

cpd wrote:
All the ones I flew on were usually very full. But I’m flying on the major very busy routes. On the flip side I’ve been on fairly empty B777s of Emirates.

I think it’s right for M some of those A6-ED* aircraft to go. The ED generation are pretty tired inside compared to their newer sister aircraft. They are still comfortable enough but a bit older in the entertainment systems.


Both types need to shrink, but STC will hang on to every delivery ever taken. Had Mueller not got control for few weeks, every single 772 and A330 would still be with EK.
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cpd
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:10 am

Revelation wrote:
I bet that it wasn't full and that it lost money for EK.


But how does that opinion (not fact) relate to my comment at all? When I've been on Emirates A380s they have been full. Full business class, full economy class. But I've had 777 flights that were not full and so I've been lucky to have a seat beside me empty, shared storage space! Or better still, an upgrade to first class.

But I'm also on a pretty major long distance route that always tends to be full, hence why they'd send multiple A380s per day.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:05 pm

cpd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I bet that it wasn't full and that it lost money for EK.

But how does that opinion (not fact) relate to my comment at all?

It highlights the idea that just because you were on plane X on route Y and it was full doesn't mean it was full on every flight nor made money on every flight.
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mcg
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
cpd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I bet that it wasn't full and that it lost money for EK.

But how does that opinion (not fact) relate to my comment at all?

It highlights the idea that just because you were on plane X on route Y and it was full doesn't mean it was full on every flight nor made money on every flight.


C'mon, Route Y is always packed!, you can look it up!
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:32 pm

mcg wrote:
C'mon, Route Y is always packed!, you can look it up!


Even its top earning route LHR-DXB would barely cover A380 hourly costs with hourly revenue of $24,926. Fleet wide load factor is definitely not 100%, if not A380 routes, it is bleeding somewhere else.

https://www.oag.com/blog/billion-dollar ... he-network
All posts are just opinions.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:48 am

danipawa wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:


its happening


Retirement of this aircraft was planned years ago and is not related to the rumor. Tim Clark mentioned many times this aircraft would be retirement when the lease period lapses. You will find several older threads on this subject.
Good moaning!
 
cockpitherald
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Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:46 pm

Emirates want to cancel five of eight A380 orders. They basically want to deliver A6-EVL, A6-EVM and A6-EVN that are at Hamburg Finkenwerder Airport and want to cancel other five double-deckers (registered as A6-EVO, A6-EVP, A6-EVQ, A6-EVR, A6-EVS) that are in the final assembly line. Is that possible to cancel order that are already under construction?

Source: https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/06/20/emi ... ull-spate/
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:10 pm

Will Airbus and Boeing want to lower the 'order' bar in the current environment? A queue of customers are asking for the same generosity. Can Airbus even afford to forgive?

What about the engine contract, negotiated separately?

And behind the scenes, don't rule out lobbying from another ME nation, able to demonstrate they have and are meeting their obligations, keen to see a competitor disappear, and deal out some payback.
 
cockpitherald
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:32 pm

Airbus is still going on assembling the remaining double-deckers. They did not pause the production. Emirates ordered 115 777X, 30 Dreamliner and 50 A350. I think Airbus won’t step back and will get what it wants. In the end, Boeing will be the winner of this battle.

By the way, Bloomberg has not provided much about the contract terms so we still don’t know the details. Such agreements can’t be judged with a tiny sentence from a huge contract.
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:44 pm

smartplane wrote:
And behind the scenes, don't rule out lobbying from another ME nation, able to demonstrate they have and are meeting their obligations, keen to see a competitor disappear, and deal out some payback.

What other ME nation? Qatar, the nation whose airline is also trying to push out and defer deliveries?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:53 pm

I do not understand this discussion of payback. The contract limits EK's liability. EK will go to AAB's school of carpet inspection to delay delivery of the 3 until they have an acceptable offer.

RR didn't meet contract, so EK will just reject the last 20 engines. That is pretty simple in my opinion (unless I missed a compensation contract).

As Boeing is working to differ, EK could (temporarily) go one vendor. While mid-term I see them wanting even more A359, they must first survive the short term.



I believe the RR miss on fuel burn will rear its ugly head and be used as a lever. The new aircraft will fail inspection on tiny items that are normally waived.

EK faces penalties for not accepting delivery as per contract. I believe, if a mutual agreement cannot be reached, EK will find every possible quality control lapse to refuse delivery. They probably cannot finance, nor can they afford to take delivery.

LH has mothballed their A388s, a sign the market just isn't ready. Frankfurt will not see the A380 again, and if you read the link, it will take good economic conditions to pull the A388s out again for LH:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/gulfnews.com ... 2555755021

The reality is, EK suddenly needs far fewer A380. By the time they need a VLA, the 779 will be available. By that time, bypass by the A321xLR, 787, and A350 will cut yield. The reality is, aircraft of the A388 generation will be returned to leasors and have a value issue. 77W and A330 will become freighters. In fact, an ex-EK 77W is to become the first 777-300ERSF, once A6-EBB:

https://www.stattimes.com/news/the-maki ... cargo/amp/

It is a bummer the Catia error kept the A388F from seeing service. In my opinion, it is far too late for an A388P2F as those new builds were needed to pay for the specialized equipment development. In particular if the 777xF is brought forward, there is little if any market for an A388P2F.

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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:58 pm

Polot wrote:
smartplane wrote:
And behind the scenes, don't rule out lobbying from another ME nation, able to demonstrate they have and are meeting their obligations, keen to see a competitor disappear, and deal out some payback.

What other ME nation? Qatar, the nation whose airline is also trying to push out and defer deliveries?

To clarify, the nation pushing out deliveries with concurance?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23O22V

AAB might have thrown one fit too many. I don't think Toulouse is happy with Qatar, Etihad, or Emirates right now, but in particular not Qatar.

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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:38 pm

smartplane wrote:
Will Airbus and Boeing want to lower the 'order' bar in the current environment? A queue of customers are asking for the same generosity. Can Airbus even afford to forgive?

The Bloomberg link told us that the penalties for cancellation are $70MM per frame. Both sides will do the math. It's hard to see EK making $70MM off A380s delivered in 2021 and needing to fly 12 years or so in a world filled with A350, 787, and 777X and EK already committed to more A380s than it can use. Pretty clearly they have done the math and know the answer is they will not. Airbus will have to decide if the $70MM penalty covers what it will take to get the aircraft assembled and ready for delivery just to see EK cancel. Chances are it will not. Chances are they already have more than $70MM invested in them and going further is just going to add more red ink. It's not like there is a resale market for them.
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:45 pm

I be surprised if the Emirates ever takes another new A380.

They have the no need. Airbus will have to mothsballs them. Maybe the scrap?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:08 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
I be surprised if the Emirates ever takes another new A380.

They have the no need. Airbus will have to mothsballs them. Maybe the scrap?


They’re taking at least three of the eight A380s set to be delivered. One of them that’s completed already has the new Premium Economy seats.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Will Airbus and Boeing want to lower the 'order' bar in the current environment? A queue of customers are asking for the same generosity. Can Airbus even afford to forgive?

The Bloomberg link told us that the penalties for cancellation are $70MM per frame. Both sides will do the math. It's hard to see EK making $70MM off A380s delivered in 2021 and needing to fly 12 years or so in a world filled with A350, 787, and 777X and EK already committed to more A380s than it can use. Pretty clearly they have done the math and know the answer is they will not. Airbus will have to decide if the $70MM penalty covers what it will take to get the aircraft assembled and ready for delivery just to see EK cancel. Chances are it will not. Chances are they already have more than $70MM invested in them and going further is just going to add more red ink. It's not like there is a resale market for them.

This will be a cat fight. Better to have 5 A380 of spare parts than assemble 5 without benefit. Although tough labor laws in France mean little cost savings for Airbus.

EK is fighting for survival. That means Dubai is fighting for economic survival.

I'm reading the paper WSJ now and rural labor is being sent back. I cannot imagine a quick recovery of labor to the mid-East nations, Europe, the US, or other parts of the world. The WSJ notes this is "reversing decades of gains against extreme poverty around the world."

We write this, mostly, from positions of food security if not reduced economic security. It will be a tumultuous year going forward as much of the world population, perhaps even a majority, lost economic security and quite possibly food security.

I do not see how that helps EK fill A380s as they still have to deal with bypass, the new IST (now with the highest takeoff/landing capacity in Europe with the 3rd runway), and competition from ET.

I was a huge fan of the A380. But I failed to see the huge potential of CFRP at the A380 launch. Like many converts, I am now obsessed with the potential.

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Strato2
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:46 pm

A380's pain is 777x's amputation. If EK is fighting for survival how are they gonna finance 115 new VLA's? They don't. Add in QR woes and it's not out of realm of possibility 777x's orderbook will be slashed in half before EIS.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:48 pm

Ishrion wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
I be surprised if the Emirates ever takes another new A380.

They have the no need. Airbus will have to mothsballs them. Maybe the scrap?


They’re taking at least three of the eight A380s set to be delivered. One of them that’s completed already has the new Premium Economy seats.


At the moment.

The things may change. Also, one a380 with premium economy seats will be a hassle for the schedules and the deployments. With the virus and low demand, who will pay?

This why is why I think that Emirates not gonna have any more A380s ever again.
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:58 pm

Strato2 wrote:
A380's pain is 777x's amputation. If EK is fighting for survival how are they gonna finance 115 new VLA's? They don't. Add in QR woes and it's not out of realm of possibility 777x's orderbook will be slashed in half before EIS.

It’s not about financing VLAs in general it’s about the timing of the financing. It’s not as if they’ll never need them again. They need to be pushed back. If EK wanted to cancel more they would’ve cancelled it since they are known for changes orders as they wish. We are six months into this pandemic and still no cancellations. I expect deferrals. The ones due next year they’ll take simply because about 3 of them have been assembled sitting in Everett. They didn’t order the 777X to have them for 5 years and then buy the next thing. They are planes for 20-30years.

I for one don’t even think they’re going to decommission as many A380s as one might think. Maybe about 40 and then work with around 60. I don’t think it will go up to 65 as some say
 
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airporthistory
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:30 pm

I can also imagine that under the current conditions, legacies will successfully lobby their governments to restrict access to the likes of Emirates in order to protect their home markets, and thus further deteriorating the case for the A380.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:37 pm

Strato2 wrote:
A380's pain is 777x's amputation. If EK is fighting for survival how are they gonna finance 115 new VLA's? They don't. Add in QR woes and it's not out of realm of possibility 777x's orderbook will be slashed in half before EIS.


The A380 has been at the end of its production for some time, EK over ordered it and with COVID has an incredible excess. As noted above there will be a lot of dancing going on around acceptance of these last few A380's. It will be interesting to see if any become white tails or never go thru final assembly.

The 779 is just now in flight testing, it will do OK as a model but takeup will be slow for a couple of years. EK will defer the 779, spreading out the orders over an added half decade, but no need to cancel any. For EK it will be the replacement for the 77W and A380, the 787 and A350s, will replace 77Ws. I suspect that EK 5 years from now will be flying only about 3/4 of its current daily capacity.
 
dfwking
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:40 pm

airporthistory wrote:
I can also imagine that under the current conditions, legacies will successfully lobby their governments to restrict access to the likes of Emirates in order to protect their home markets, and thus further deteriorating the case for the A380.


I was wondering if this may come up. But I think at least with the USA, more arms purchases from the Gulf nations should keep open skies going. Also there is talk of AA and QR cooperating more.

Access could get tighter in Europe to protect national carriers.
 
KingOrGod
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:00 pm

Opus99 wrote:
They didn’t order the 777X to have them for 5 years and then buy the next thing. They are planes for 20-30years.


With the exception of the A310 which formed EK and flew for just under 20 years I think, they don't operate or plan to operate fleets that long.
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:04 pm

KingOrGod wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
They didn’t order the 777X to have them for 5 years and then buy the next thing. They are planes for 20-30years.


With the exception of the A310 which formed EK and flew for just under 20 years I think, they don't operate or plan to operate fleets that long.

*15 years then. But you raise a good point. Why does EK retire aircrafts after about 15 years compared to BA who use them till the very end? Is it the different conditions in which they operate. Does the desert play a factor?
 
KingOrGod
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:21 pm

Opus99 wrote:
KingOrGod wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
They didn’t order the 777X to have them for 5 years and then buy the next thing. They are planes for 20-30years.


With the exception of the A310 which formed EK and flew for just under 20 years I think, they don't operate or plan to operate fleets that long.

*15 years then. But you raise a good point. Why does EK retire aircrafts after about 15 years compared to BA who use them till the very end? Is it the different conditions in which they operate. Does the desert play a factor?


I have no idea of the logic behind it, but it is well documented the A380's were leased on a 12 year term. That is not long by any means... Look at LH and their 744s...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:16 pm

KingOrGod wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
KingOrGod wrote:
With the exception of the A310 which formed EK and flew for just under 20 years I think, they don't operate or plan to operate fleets that long.

*15 years then. But you raise a good point. Why does EK retire aircrafts after about 15 years compared to BA who use them till the very end? Is it the different conditions in which they operate. Does the desert play a factor?

I have no idea of the logic behind it, but it is well documented the A380's were leased on a 12 year term. That is not long by any means... Look at LH and their 744s...

QR turns planes over on 10 year cycles. AAB shall not be outdone.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
KingOrGod wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
*15 years then. But you raise a good point. Why does EK retire aircrafts after about 15 years compared to BA who use them till the very end? Is it the different conditions in which they operate. Does the desert play a factor?

I have no idea of the logic behind it, but it is well documented the A380's were leased on a 12 year term. That is not long by any means... Look at LH and their 744s...

QR turns planes over on 10 year cycles. AAB shall not be outdone.

Now that 777X order makes sense. Only 10 years? I guess QR does a sale and leaseback on their aircrafts when they arrive and then does a 10 year deal and then they’re returned to the lessor
 
moa999
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:09 pm

But going forward will lessors be as agreeable to 10/12yr terms for VLAs or will they require a significant premium.

As for the 380s, would anyone even finance them
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:04 am

moa999 wrote:
But going forward will lessors be as agreeable to 10/12yr terms for VLAs or will they require a significant premium.

As for the 380s, would anyone even finance them

The shorter the term, the less risk for leasors. We all have done financing calculations with estimated future values depreciated to present value. All that happens is the future values of all Aircraft drop.

In general, on a 12 year lease, 10 years pays for a high fraction of the aircraft, say 70%. The last 2 years are the profit put at risk of lower resale values.

I think leases will become less sophisticated. The assumed future resale will drop.

However, there is now a 777-300ERSF. This gives hope some future conversion will occur for the 779. Part of what is destroying the A380 is the complete absense of a resale market other than one for HiFly and as parts.

We have seen 77Ws, A330s, and most other widebodies find a 2nd home. I think the small cargo door 77Es that found no second home distorted the second hand market perception.

I do not worry about financing for the 779 nor any aircraft with a reasonable chance of becoming a freight dog.

Lightsaber
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:03 am

The 777X is now largely a matter of sunk costs. Boeing can produce 787s at a lot of profit. Should those having ordered the larger of the two desire to switch to the smaller Boeing could likely earn a more tidy profit. Win Win. For both A and B the advantage of having a full offering is in part about giving airlines some alternatives for changing conditions.
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Ishrion
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:09 pm

Kinda unrelated, but Emirates will return the first A380 to the skies with DXB-LHR/CDG from July 15:

https://twitter.com/emirates/status/1275458663021522945
 
Fatbus
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:49 am

380 is not dead yet and EK will need them , not all , in the future . Maybe back to the 55 plan , which I always thought was the perfect fit . Then egos got involved ,nuf said !
 
olle
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:45 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
When oil spikes, I believe it will spike over $100/bbl. This will hurt the less official question of when. My opinion on oil is based on the fracking companies being in bad financial shape and thus unable to ramp. So just as EK needs new equipment, they will have old equipment at old efficiency standards.

Lightsaber

I should know better than to say never, but $100/bbl oil will not here be any time soon enough to "help" or "hurt" A380 economics. EK are going to have to fly them one way or another until new builds arrive. You have dance with the one that brought you, and for the next few years that's the B77W and A388.


Looking at the historical Oil pricing, it has averaged around $60/bbl for the period 1975-2020, with prices ranging from $19 to $145, huge swings in just a few years, making it tricky to even hedge on the price. We probably have a few years of lower than average, but as demand picks up a lot of idle wells will be shut in. I personally do not believe there will be a significant migration to energy sources outside of oil & gas, only gradual. Every airline must study what happens to their system across a full range of oil prices. It is the death knell for an airline to have less efficient, higher maintenance planes than the competition in a high cost environment.

As you noted elsewhere Lightsaber, competing a hub against direct flights requires a more efficient operation to compete on price against the convenience of the direct flight. The connecting flight has to be 10% cheaper for me to consider it, but I've paid 20% more before for the non-stop. If I have 77W's and their direct flight is on a 789, even with low prices its hard to match while remaining profitable.

You are right that any leases that can be returned, need to be unless the lessor will renew for a few years at great terms. EK is going to be battling their A380 lessors on the 50 that are on lease. On EK's network, the prospect of operating the 77W fleet may be easier than the A380 fleet., but staying for a decade with the current fleet will be quite painful.


Brittish petrolium is now considerign a price around 55 USD is more realistic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/oil-bp- ... -2050.html
 
olle
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:50 am

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
KingOrGod wrote:
I have no idea of the logic behind it, but it is well documented the A380's were leased on a 12 year term. That is not long by any means... Look at LH and their 744s...

QR turns planes over on 10 year cycles. AAB shall not be outdone.

Now that 777X order makes sense. Only 10 years? I guess QR does a sale and leaseback on their aircrafts when they arrive and then does a 10 year deal and then they’re returned to the lessor


While QR and EK stands for around 50% of the 77X orderbook in a other thread it is mentioned that they are depending of a high resale value.
 
Opus99
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 pm

"Going forward we cannot sustain long-term operating on that kind of fleet. We need to inject the smaller type," Redha said.

Not all of Emirates' 115 A380s will return to service this year, and the airline is in talks with Airbus to delay three planes due to be delivered this year, he said.

Redha said it was not clear whether Boeing would deliver the new version of the 777, known as the 777x, next year. The airline is not in talks to cancel any aircraft orders, he added

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06 ... rline.html

A few takeaways from this. A380 definitely still has a future albeit significantly reduced.

I don’t know what He means by it’s not clear whether Boeing will be able to deliver the 777X in 2021. What has come up?

They are not cancelling any orders for the 777X for those who are speculating from thin air.

Emirates is 100% trying to restructure their operation
 
mig17
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:27 pm

Opus99 wrote:
They are not cancelling any orders for the 777X for those who are speculating from thin air.

Not currently at least since Boeing seems to be delaying deliveries by itself.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:36 am

mig17 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
They are not cancelling any orders for the 777X for those who are speculating from thin air.

Not currently at least since Boeing seems to be delaying deliveries by itself.


No need for the Boeing to rush if airlines are today in struggled times.

Also, FAA will be closer involved.

Hardly a delay on the purpose, but delay due to factors aboves.
 
olle
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:12 am

How will lease companies reacts with the last A380s and all new 77x? we can assume that they will be pretty burned by ME3 the next 2-3 years.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:03 pm

One thing I do find interesting is that Emirates and Etihad seem willing to keep the A380 for a little longer (Emirates especially, much to the delight of Simple Flying), but virtually every other A380 operator outright wants to ground them for at least a while, if not forever. Part of me wonders that Emirates resuming A380 flights next month (instead of mothballing them like almost every other airline) has more to do with pride and prestige than anything.
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2007 - 2019
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Emirates Retires First A380

Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:10 pm

Do we know the fate of this specific frame yet? I know with the Air France one that was sent to Knock it was first sent to some other places in Germany for end-of-lease stuff and airframe works, while the two ex-SQ A380s that were sent to Tarbes never left and were scrapped there. Will this one see a similar fate?
RIP 9V-SKA
2007 - 2019
 
behramjee
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Official: Emirates to consider smaller aircraft

Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:30 pm

Article link: https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... t-covid-19

Its behind a pay-wall so the summary is as follows:

a) EK COO Mr Adel al Redha disclosed that its fleet strategy going forward is being reviewed again due to the effect CV-19 has had on the business and future forecasts

b) He confirmed that over the long term operating an exclusive wide body fleet is not sustainable

c) He revealed that EK will need narrow body aircraft going forward "to re-define its operating model"

My comments:

i. I wouldn’t be surprised if Airbus gets an order for the A321Neo family in exchange for cancelling some unbuilt A350s and A380s as many airlines have deferred / cancelled taking delivery slots of the A321Neos for the next few years hence this would ensure rapid delivery of the aircraft if need be.

ii. I do not foresee EK ordering Boeing 737MAXs despite FZ having a large order already on the table as the risk is too high currently.

iii. If however EK does order the A321Neo I do not foresee it ordering the XLR version for 8-9 hour flights as that it’s WB fleet will be made to operate due to pax comfort and incremental cargo revenue opportunity in the belly. Plus with EK's 2 prime hub wave departure banks being between 0800-0900 + 1400-1500, the A321Neo-XLR wont be able to depart with a full payload on intended 8-9 hour flights due to the on ground temperature being 42-45C at that time in the summer season.

iv. A realistic configuration of the A321Neo for EK could be similar to Aer Lingus’ ie 16J with flat beds + 168Y therefore ensuring a standardized flat bed premium product across its entire fleet.

v. It would be ideally suited for its GCC/MENA network + few cities in ISC/SEZ/East Africa + would allow it to better expand in CIS/Eastern Europe.
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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