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Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:35 am

One more thing I want to add is. Everything in the market now is efficient , there’s nothing that’s not efficient if we really look at it. Everything now is about size and range, what size/range of aircraft do you want? And there about 7 different sizes of aircraft and I think the 777X will certainly in talks of airlines who operated the 380 like mrHMSH pointed out or airlines looking to operate a 4 class and still carry people or airlines who have 77Ws that are seating over 350 passengers heading to 400, airlines with 747s today both 400 and 8i
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:35 am

Opus99 wrote:
One more thing I want to add is. Everything in the market now is efficient , there’s nothing that’s not efficient if we really look at it. Everything now is about size and range, what size/range of aircraft do you want? And there about 7 different sizes of aircraft and I think the 777X will certainly in talks of airlines who operated the 380 like mrHMSH pointed out or airlines looking to operate a 4 class and still carry people or airlines who have 77Ws that are seating over 350 passengers heading to 400, airlines with 747s today both 400 and 8i


LEEHAM have just published an article on the recovery estimate from COVID.

NB aircraft around 2023 and WB aircraft around 2025. These are the best estimates. The worst is 2028!!

We are 7 months into this pandemic, there is a long way to go to before people will feel safe to travel at 2019 levels.

Hence, a little early to say if the 777X will sell even all the orders it has, nevermind more.


https://leehamnews.com
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:42 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
One more thing I want to add is. Everything in the market now is efficient , there’s nothing that’s not efficient if we really look at it. Everything now is about size and range, what size/range of aircraft do you want? And there about 7 different sizes of aircraft and I think the 777X will certainly in talks of airlines who operated the 380 like mrHMSH pointed out or airlines looking to operate a 4 class and still carry people or airlines who have 77Ws that are seating over 350 passengers heading to 400, airlines with 747s today both 400 and 8i


LEEHAM have just published an article on the recovery estimate from COVID.

NB aircraft around 2023 and WB aircraft around 2025. These are the best estimates. The worst is 2028!!

We are 7 months into this pandemic, there is a long way to go to before people will feel safe to travel at 2019 levels.

Hence, a little early to say if the 777X will sell even all the orders it has, nevermind more.


https://leehamnews.com

If that’s the case then we can apply that to all wide bodies. The idea is demand will come back right? Unless it never does. I only see this as a pause in aircraft orders be it 3 years be it 5. Airlines will continue to use the metal they have and whenever they’re ready for replacement and or growth they will start to look at orders again.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:58 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
I believe it was the 77W's ability to really carry a lot of belly cargo even with a full pax load made the difference.


And its significant more now than ever!!

The joke goes that 77W is essentially a cargo aircraft that also carries pax!
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:40 am

Opus99 wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
One more thing I want to add is. Everything in the market now is efficient , there’s nothing that’s not efficient if we really look at it. Everything now is about size and range, what size/range of aircraft do you want? And there about 7 different sizes of aircraft and I think the 777X will certainly in talks of airlines who operated the 380 like mrHMSH pointed out or airlines looking to operate a 4 class and still carry people or airlines who have 77Ws that are seating over 350 passengers heading to 400, airlines with 747s today both 400 and 8i


LEEHAM have just published an article on the recovery estimate from COVID.

NB aircraft around 2023 and WB aircraft around 2025. These are the best estimates. The worst is 2028!!

We are 7 months into this pandemic, there is a long way to go to before people will feel safe to travel at 2019 levels.

Hence, a little early to say if the 777X will sell even all the orders it has, nevermind more.


https://leehamnews.com

If that’s the case then we can apply that to all wide bodies. The idea is demand will come back right? Unless it never does. I only see this as a pause in aircraft orders be it 3 years be it 5. Airlines will continue to use the metal they have and whenever they’re ready for replacement and or growth they will start to look at orders again.


Definitely all WBs. Is why it makes sense that EK maybe will swap more 777X for the smaller 787-9.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:52 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:

LEEHAM have just published an article on the recovery estimate from COVID.

NB aircraft around 2023 and WB aircraft around 2025. These are the best estimates. The worst is 2028!!

We are 7 months into this pandemic, there is a long way to go to before people will feel safe to travel at 2019 levels.

Hence, a little early to say if the 777X will sell even all the orders it has, nevermind more.


https://leehamnews.com

If that’s the case then we can apply that to all wide bodies. The idea is demand will come back right? Unless it never does. I only see this as a pause in aircraft orders be it 3 years be it 5. Airlines will continue to use the metal they have and whenever they’re ready for replacement and or growth they will start to look at orders again.


Definitely all WBs. Is why it makes sense that EK maybe will swap more 777X for the smaller 787-9.

Oh of course, i for one think that makes sense, i even think they should look into some of the NTU's so they can bring their restructuring as forward as possible.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:33 am

[quote="Opus99"][/quote]

Thank you for your measured response. In a world where covid wasn't a think I'm sure the 777X would be fine, wouldn't outsell the 77W, but it doesn't need to to be a success. Weighed against your point about opportunity for revenue being higher is that the plane is going to be quite a bit more expensive to buy, the A35K at least can leverage the A359's economies of scale, and the 787's production costs have lowered dramatically, with smaller numbers it'll be harder for Boeing to match the economies of scale, and that applies to the maintenance as well.

I do agree that some airlines will need the capacity of the 777X, but equally it's not a huge need, a few orders for 10-15 from most airlines you would consider to be candidates (e.g. AF, UA, AA, CN3, TG) is still going to leave you with a relatively small orderbook, they will simply replace a lot of 77W flying with A359s/787s.

I guess the worry is how many airlines have publicly spoken about reducing, converting or deferring orders, when EK is having second thoughts you have to think there's trouble brewing, but QR and EY have uncertain futures as well, as does CX, the most secure orders I think are SQ, NH and BA, but LH may reduce. It's going to be hard for airlines to justify spending on new aircraft anyway, but a large aircraft, possibly in a future with lower fuel prices and lower demand? It's not the best time to be offering the largest and most expensive aircraft.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:09 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I guess the worry is how many airlines have publicly spoken about reducing, converting or deferring orders, when EK is having second thoughts you have to think there's trouble brewing, but QR and EY have uncertain futures as well, as does CX, the most secure orders I think are SQ, NH and BA, but LH may reduce. It's going to be hard for airlines to justify spending on new aircraft anyway, but a large aircraft, possibly in a future with lower fuel prices and lower demand? It's not the best time to be offering the largest and most expensive aircraft.


To keep this in context, remember Boeing never decided to offer the largest and most expensive aircraft. It was launched in 2013, the same year the A380 had its best sales success (entirely based on Emirates, though), and 3 years before Airbus started rolling back A380 production. 747-8 production started to decline by that time, but the 777 was itself a factor in that, so I would not say that spoke against continuing that success with the 777X.

The shift in market direction largely happened after it was launched. And of course, nobody saw the pandemic coming - even the "another pandemic is bound to happen eventually" warnings were not capable of providing enough information for anyone to make fleet decisions on that basis.

So now Boeing is in a position where they have the aircraft on the market, they've spent most of the money necessary to develop, and the question is whether the situation now looks like it will justify what remains to be spent to finish certification and enter serial production.

It seems to me like it's going to be 3-5 years before they have a decent sense what direction the market is taking post-COVID. In the meantime, it doesn't sound they're going to be worrying too much about how fast they can build them.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:41 pm

Please keep the thread on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:57 am

astuteman wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My above analysis left out the A340, with a "nominal" seating capacity of 380 in its later versions. My apologies. While it was being used to replace early 747's at the time of the launch of the A380; overall adding it into the analysis still showed a declining market for aircraft in or near the nominal 400 seat range when the A380 was announced.

Have a great day,


I think this comment makes the point really well.
The market for aircraft "in or near the 400 seat range" has been declining for a long time.

The 777X may only be slightly larger than the 77W, but the sweet spot in the widebody market was already moving from the 400 seaters and into the A330/787 to 77W range when the A380 was announced.
It seems pretty unavoidable to me that the 787 and A350 "killed" the A380 in the same way that they have "killed" the 77W.
Anything larger than these two excellent mid size twins is inevitably going to be the more vulnerable airframe.

Rgds


It may be that the demand for the VLA got saturated. For the longest time it was just the 747 at 50/year tops for the large planes, below it the 767 and 330 with much lower capacity, when the 777 arrived it added 60-70 per year into that market, as well as the A380, then the A350 and 787. Capacity finally saturated demand, now there is a lot of metal waiting for demand to return and grow. More than 3,000 widebodies entered the market in the last 25 years.
 
2175301
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:43 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
astuteman wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My above analysis left out the A340, with a "nominal" seating capacity of 380 in its later versions. My apologies. While it was being used to replace early 747's at the time of the launch of the A380; overall adding it into the analysis still showed a declining market for aircraft in or near the nominal 400 seat range when the A380 was announced.

Have a great day,


I think this comment makes the point really well.
The market for aircraft "in or near the 400 seat range" has been declining for a long time.

The 777X may only be slightly larger than the 77W, but the sweet spot in the widebody market was already moving from the 400 seaters and into the A330/787 to 77W range when the A380 was announced.
It seems pretty unavoidable to me that the 787 and A350 "killed" the A380 in the same way that they have "killed" the 77W.
Anything larger than these two excellent mid size twins is inevitably going to be the more vulnerable airframe.

Rgds


It may be that the demand for the VLA got saturated. For the longest time it was just the 747 at 50/year tops for the large planes, below it the 767 and 330 with much lower capacity, when the 777 arrived it added 60-70 per year into that market, as well as the A380, then the A350 and 787. Capacity finally saturated demand, now there is a lot of metal waiting for demand to return and grow. More than 3,000 widebodies entered the market in the last 25 years.



I view it differently. Per Wiki The program launch for the 777-300ER (777W) was announced Feb 2000. The A380 was announced Dec 2000, and the B747-8i was announced November 2005.

The 777-300ER clearly turned out to be the sweet spot of the large aircraft market as it has sold 838 to date (per Wiki). The A380 has sold 251 per Wiki and the B748i has sold 47 per Wiki. The 777-300ER has outsold both the A380 and B748 by over 2/1. Clearly showing it was the sweet spot for the large passenger aircraft for last 2 decades.

I see no reason that is going to change. Now I doubt that there will be the same demand in the next 20 years. But, I estimate at least half as the 777-8/9 will be the most likely aircraft to replace remaining 747's, A380's, and 777's. Boeing will make good money servicing that demand. Not bad for a derivative off of an existing model.

Should travel pick back up to previous levels... the 777-8/9 might push 1000+ units in 20-30 years (with most of that showing up a decade+ from now).

Have a great day,
 
inkjet7
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:20 am

Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:22 am

You are really optimistic. I can not see how the market will recover enough to allow airlines to buy a lot of 777X. And I am not talking about the market of passengers being back to normal. Many if not almost all airlines will leave this crisis either bankrupt or with a massive dept burden. All the airlines that are big enough also need to replace other aircraft types, not only their 77Ws, A380s and 747s. If money is sparse, you rather invest in a A320/737 + a 787/A350 than in a 777X. Especially as this types are so much more versatile and a low risk investment. And when the carriers finally recover from the crisis in 10 years (so 2030), Boeing and Airbus will have updated 787s and A350s ready that will outperform the 777X by a lot.

The 777X will go down the same route as the A330neo. An upgrade to a really popular aircraft that does not bring enough to actually compete against the new kids. Both are too heavy to actually perform well enough. The A339 can not compete against the 787 and the 777X will struggle against the A350 and 787. I mean it is heavier than the 77W and therefore had to gain more seats to bring costs per seat down. The shorter the route the less effective the 777X will get even compared to the 77W. The 787-10 for short heavy lifting routes and the A350 for long heavy lifting routes are so much more efficient and only fall off at the very edge. That very edge that speaks for the 777X will result in a maximum 300-400 sold pieces even less if upgraded 787s and A350 are announced sooner.
 
inkjet7
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:37 am

AirIndia wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
I believe it was the 77W's ability to really carry a lot of belly cargo even with a full pax load made the difference.


And its significant more now than ever!!

The joke goes that 77W is essentially a cargo aircraft that also carries pax!


Same goes for the 787... especially the -10 if your route is up to 4000 NM.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:53 am

FluidFlow wrote:
You are really optimistic. I can not see how the market will recover enough to allow airlines to buy a lot of 777X. And I am not talking about the market of passengers being back to normal. Many if not almost all airlines will leave this crisis either bankrupt or with a massive dept burden. All the airlines that are big enough also need to replace other aircraft types, not only their 77Ws, A380s and 747s. If money is sparse, you rather invest in a A320/737 + a 787/A350 than in a 777X. Especially as this types are so much more versatile and a low risk investment. And when the carriers finally recover from the crisis in 10 years (so 2030), Boeing and Airbus will have updated 787s and A350s ready that will outperform the 777X by a lot.

The 777X will go down the same route as the A330neo. An upgrade to a really popular aircraft that does not bring enough to actually compete against the new kids. Both are too heavy to actually perform well enough. The A339 can not compete against the 787 and the 777X will struggle against the A350 and 787. I mean it is heavier than the 77W and therefore had to gain more seats to bring costs per seat down. The shorter the route the less effective the 777X will get even compared to the 77W. The 787-10 for short heavy lifting routes and the A350 for long heavy lifting routes are so much more efficient and only fall off at the very edge. That very edge that speaks for the 777X will result in a maximum 300-400 sold pieces even less if upgraded 787s and A350 are announced sooner.

You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:09 am

inkjet7 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.


But the etihad uses 78710 just fine? Same climates no?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 741
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:16 am

Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
You are really optimistic. I can not see how the market will recover enough to allow airlines to buy a lot of 777X. And I am not talking about the market of passengers being back to normal. Many if not almost all airlines will leave this crisis either bankrupt or with a massive dept burden. All the airlines that are big enough also need to replace other aircraft types, not only their 77Ws, A380s and 747s. If money is sparse, you rather invest in a A320/737 + a 787/A350 than in a 777X. Especially as this types are so much more versatile and a low risk investment. And when the carriers finally recover from the crisis in 10 years (so 2030), Boeing and Airbus will have updated 787s and A350s ready that will outperform the 777X by a lot.

The 777X will go down the same route as the A330neo. An upgrade to a really popular aircraft that does not bring enough to actually compete against the new kids. Both are too heavy to actually perform well enough. The A339 can not compete against the 787 and the 777X will struggle against the A350 and 787. I mean it is heavier than the 77W and therefore had to gain more seats to bring costs per seat down. The shorter the route the less effective the 777X will get even compared to the 77W. The 787-10 for short heavy lifting routes and the A350 for long heavy lifting routes are so much more efficient and only fall off at the very edge. That very edge that speaks for the 777X will result in a maximum 300-400 sold pieces even less if upgraded 787s and A350 are announced sooner.

You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward


I think we actually agree. I said the 777X will sell around 300-400 times just out of the necessity that there are carriers that need the capacity but it will not sell like the 77W just because there are now 5 aircraft that can fill the role the 77W filled back than. Back in the 2000s there were 4 aircraft that could fly a lot of people far, and three of them were 4 haulers and two of them too big for a lot of carriers (747 and A380) while the A340 was just inefficient. So that left the 77W as the sole aircraft that was able to fly far efficiently (good the A330-200 was there too but that aircraft did not have the payload capability of the 77W at all).

Now we have the 787-9 and -10 and the A359 and A35K and the 777X. So carriers can choose the perfect aircraft for their profile. They are not stuck to one type anymore to do various routes. LX for example wanted the A359 but it was too late so they got the 77W. If they ordered today it will not be the 777X but the A359. There are a lot of carriers that ordered the 77W just because there were no other options. Thats why I predict that the 777X will sell half of what the 77W sold just because there are so many options that can do so much. Yes a few carriers will get the 777X just because it is the biggest aircraft available that is efficient, but that is it. No one will buy the 777X because it is the only option anymore.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:56 am

Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
You are really optimistic. I can not see how the market will recover enough to allow airlines to buy a lot of 777X. And I am not talking about the market of passengers being back to normal. Many if not almost all airlines will leave this crisis either bankrupt or with a massive dept burden. All the airlines that are big enough also need to replace other aircraft types, not only their 77Ws, A380s and 747s. If money is sparse, you rather invest in a A320/737 + a 787/A350 than in a 777X. Especially as this types are so much more versatile and a low risk investment. And when the carriers finally recover from the crisis in 10 years (so 2030), Boeing and Airbus will have updated 787s and A350s ready that will outperform the 777X by a lot.

The 777X will go down the same route as the A330neo. An upgrade to a really popular aircraft that does not bring enough to actually compete against the new kids. Both are too heavy to actually perform well enough. The A339 can not compete against the 787 and the 777X will struggle against the A350 and 787. I mean it is heavier than the 77W and therefore had to gain more seats to bring costs per seat down. The shorter the route the less effective the 777X will get even compared to the 77W. The 787-10 for short heavy lifting routes and the A350 for long heavy lifting routes are so much more efficient and only fall off at the very edge. That very edge that speaks for the 777X will result in a maximum 300-400 sold pieces even less if upgraded 787s and A350 are announced sooner.

You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward


Interesting, some of the airlines you mention I feel that use a high density 77W like AF, will go 35K, slightly smaller but efficient, 440 seat max?

AC/KL I think the 779 is likely?

CA could get both 779/35K for different route profiles configurations.

Good topic, hopefully in a post covid world airlines are able to bounce back well and order when the time comes.
 
Opus99
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Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:06 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
You are really optimistic. I can not see how the market will recover enough to allow airlines to buy a lot of 777X. And I am not talking about the market of passengers being back to normal. Many if not almost all airlines will leave this crisis either bankrupt or with a massive dept burden. All the airlines that are big enough also need to replace other aircraft types, not only their 77Ws, A380s and 747s. If money is sparse, you rather invest in a A320/737 + a 787/A350 than in a 777X. Especially as this types are so much more versatile and a low risk investment. And when the carriers finally recover from the crisis in 10 years (so 2030), Boeing and Airbus will have updated 787s and A350s ready that will outperform the 777X by a lot.

The 777X will go down the same route as the A330neo. An upgrade to a really popular aircraft that does not bring enough to actually compete against the new kids. Both are too heavy to actually perform well enough. The A339 can not compete against the 787 and the 777X will struggle against the A350 and 787. I mean it is heavier than the 77W and therefore had to gain more seats to bring costs per seat down. The shorter the route the less effective the 777X will get even compared to the 77W. The 787-10 for short heavy lifting routes and the A350 for long heavy lifting routes are so much more efficient and only fall off at the very edge. That very edge that speaks for the 777X will result in a maximum 300-400 sold pieces even less if upgraded 787s and A350 are announced sooner.

You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward


Interesting, some of the airlines you mention I feel that use a high density 77W like AF, will go 35K, slightly smaller but efficient, 440 seat max?

AC/KL I think the 779 is likely?

CA could get both 779/35K for different route profiles configurations.

Good topic, hopefully in a post covid world airlines are able to bounce back well and order when the time comes.

Oh yeah, KL simply because they've been converted to an ALL Boeing fleet, there's also Turkish Airlines as well there could be a split there
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:20 am

Going forward, the 777-9 weakness is it's high selling price. You can get 3 787-9 or A350-900 instead of 2 777-9. And despite the 777-9 being the larger frame, it's cost per seat advantage does not seem to be enough to justify the higher investment
Only traffic saturation of some airport will favor the use of 777-9.
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Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:24 am

TK operates their 77W with 349 seats (C49Y300) and the A359 (C32Y297). So I don't see what need they would have for the 777X. Even their B789s seat 300pax (C30Y270)

The A350-1000 or the B787-10 would be more suitable.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:29 am

Scotron12 wrote:
TK operates their 77W with 349 seats (C49Y300) and the A359 (C32Y297). So I don't see what need they would have for the 777X. Even their B789s seat 300pax (C30Y270)

The A350-1000 or the B787-10 would be more suitable.

And the version with 400 passengers? Not that the A350-1000 can’t but the 777X is very much a contender in that RFP. Especially for a carrier like TK
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:31 am

mig17 wrote:
Going forward, the 777-9 weakness is it's high selling price. You can get 3 787-9 or A350-900 instead of 2 777-9. And despite the 777-9 being the larger frame, it's cost per seat advantage does not seem to be enough to justify the higher investment
Only traffic saturation of some airport will favor the use of 777-9.

You’d be surprised how similarly priced it is to the A35K. List price doesn’t mean anything. It has the same list price as the A380 but it is still Much cheaper than the 380
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:43 am

Opus99 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward


Interesting, some of the airlines you mention I feel that use a high density 77W like AF, will go 35K, slightly smaller but efficient, 440 seat max?

AC/KL I think the 779 is likely?

CA could get both 779/35K for different route profiles configurations.

Good topic, hopefully in a post covid world airlines are able to bounce back well and order when the time comes.

Oh yeah, KL simply because they've been converted to an ALL Boeing fleet, there's also Turkish Airlines as well there could be a split there


KL certainly seem to be going the Boeing way, their 77Ws aren’t very old in fact some are brand new so a 77X order would be some time away you would think.

BR could be another 77X contender? Large 77W fleet 320-340 seats from memory. To many 77Ws probably could do with more 789s on the lower end aswell but 779 for LAX/SFO could easily use 10-12 with up to 3 daily to each.

TG, mandatory 6 from them. They have A380s and 77Ws which aren’t old though.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:13 am

Opus99 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Going forward, the 777-9 weakness is it's high selling price. You can get 3 787-9 or A350-900 instead of 2 777-9. And despite the 777-9 being the larger frame, it's cost per seat advantage does not seem to be enough to justify the higher investment
Only traffic saturation of some airport will favor the use of 777-9.

You’d be surprised how similarly priced it is to the A35K. List price doesn’t mean anything. It has the same list price as the A380 but it is still Much cheaper than the 380

List prices are an indication. But, even if true selling prices are half of it, the ratio remains. 2 777-9 are worth 3 A350-900 or 787-9 and 777-9 should still be 20% more expensive than a A35K.
Now who have realy paid the "real price" of a 777-9 for now is another topic and I bet none have because of launch prices and no sales over a long period ... Boeing isn't finding new customers for it at it's market price.
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Baldr
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:16 am

Opus99 wrote:
Baldr wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
You’re still missing the point though. There are many airlines that will look for that size of aircraft at the fuel efficiency that it brings! If the 380 had the efficiency of a two engined jet it would’ve done MUCH better. If you look at how DENSE some 77Ws are you’ll realise there’s a need for that size of aircraft (especially with major carriers). I don’t see it selling more than 500 units to be fair. But the weight in this case becomes less irrelevant if compared to the 35K it has a slight trip cost penalty but much greater revenue capability and lower cost per seat. The 330neo has nothing going for it. What makes it stand out? What’s it’s unique selling point? I still don’t know. The 777X Boeing will tell you it’s size and it’s efficiency at that size. Look at air Canada operating a 450 seat 77w OR Air France operating a 480 seat 77W or KLM operating a 400 seat 77W what does you think will replace those? There’s nothing else that can. Then the Chinese 3 included as well. Air China operating a 77W with 392 seats. Now I mean they are not in number of the 787 or the A359. But this idea that they can get a 787 or a350 to do the job is incorrect. Let me tell you every jet today on the market is “efficient” everything is now a matter of size and range. If the 777X performs as expected it would burn similar fuel to a 200ER which is about 6.6 tons per hour. For a jet that seats over 100 people extra compared to a 777-200ER? Come on. Even the A35K burns less than the 200Er and sits WAY more than the 200ER. So I’m of the opinion that the 779 and the A35K have a MASSIVE role to play going forward


Due to the Covid-19 induced crisis in the airline industry, the 777-9 appears to have lost its production/sales window vs. that of a stretched A350-1000. As it stands now, very few 779s are likely to be delivered before 2025 (i.e. <100). Post 2025, the 779 will very likely not only be competing with an enhanced UltraFan powered A350-1000 (EIS in, say, 2029), but also with a stretched A350-2000 (EIS in, say, 2028).

Meanwhile, the 779 will not only be competing against the A350-1000, but the smaller twins as well. When the market for large twins is likely to pick up again in the latter parts of the decade, the 779 would be competing with stretched and higher capacity versions of the A350 featuring the latest engine technologies. In fact, the 779 is only able to compete with the A350-1000 because the GE9X engine is projected to have a 5% lower TSFC than the Trent XWB-97 engine on the A350-1000. Reversing that 5% TSFC deficit in favour of the upgraded A350s would seem to indicate that the 779 would not remain competitive much beyond 2025.

A 79.5 m long, 320 metric tonne MTOW A350-2000 -- some 30 metric tonnes lower MTOW than the 777X -- would not only be able to carry slightly more passengers than the 777-9, but it should do so with at least a 10 percent lower fuel consumption per seat than the 777-9.

As Fabrice Bregier indicated before he retired as CEO of Airbus (Commercial Aircraft Divsion), Airbus will probably launch a 79.5 m long A350-2000 when the next generation engine technology is ready. Hence, Airbus is obviously awaiting the results of the testing of Rolls Royce’s new Advance3 core and the high-power tests of the gearbox being developed for the UltraFan engine, before committing to launching the A350-2000. The Advance3 core alone should be able to lower TSFC by up to 10 percent over that of the Trent XWB engine; or at least, a 5 percent lower TSFC than the GE9X engine on the 777X. Then, add the benefits of the geared fan (i.e. bypass ratio of 15:1 etc.).

Interestingly, a 320 metric tonnes MTOW A350-2000 wouldn’t need a new wing. It would have a wing loading of around 695 kg/m2 (i.e. 320000 kg / 461 m2). In contrast the wing loading for the 777X -- assuming a wing area of 515 m2 — is 683.5 kg/m2 (i.e. 352000 kg / 515 m2). However, in order to protect future growth in MTOW, an A350-2000 would require a baseline thrust of some 103,000 lbf (vs. 97,000 lbf on the TXWB-97 engine). Also, it wouldn’t need longer MLG legs. The A350 XWB already sits as high as the 777X. In fact, on the A350 wing there’s more than enough ground cleareance under the engine mounts in order to hang an engine with a fan diameter greater than 140 inches.

Like Airbus have said there is no re-engined widebody launching this decade, apart from a cleansheet narrowbody launch i think,, They haven't even finished selling the A35K talkless of a re-engine


Well, 6 months before the launch of the A330neo, then head of twin aisle marketing at Airbus, Crawford Hamilton, said that "the horrible problem is that the guys got the A330 right, so why should we do a new airplane?" **

Thus, Airbus at the time appeared not to be compelled to do anymore than further tweaking the A330 (-ceo). However, they launched the A330neo just 6 months later.

Clearly, therefore, Airbus is likely going to launch a new generation A350 family on short notice. Their strategy is likely one that is intended to fool the competition into believing that there is no short to mid term existential threat to the 779.

In short, don't take everything Airbus says about new product launches as gospel.

** https://airinsight.com/clearing-the-air-about-the-a330neo/
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:21 am

2175301 wrote:
...
Should travel pick back up to previous levels... the 777-8/9 might push 1000+ units in 20-30 years (with most of that showing up a decade+ from now).

Have a great day,


Way too optimistic. My guesstimate 250-300 at best, because there is too little demand and too many options in WB segment.

The most successful large long range WB 77W sold only 830 copies.
The most successful VLA A380 sold less than 300.
This happened during aviation boom and without much competition.
777X is neither and there is a WB glut.

Can a program survive with 12/year production rate?
All posts are just opinions.
 
Sjtstudios
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:42 am

This is a generalization and I don’t mean to put words in people’s mouth. But I thing people misrepresent the industry wide-body growth by calling it downsizing. The 787 and a350 are efficient and arguably have some of the best profitability for their manufacturers and operators alike. Airlines that couldn’t afford wide bodies or maybe a handful of 777s are buying these aircraft by the 10s.

There is more competition as traffic becomes less concentrated. There is some downsizing as legacy airlines choose these aircraft for leaner operations and some economies of scale. These aircraft are incredibly successful at making a profit on competitive routes. But you can’t rule out the 777X just because it’s the new XL aircraft. It’s going to own trunk routes and make it easier for the operators to defend market share. And with more and bigger cities, it won’t go away.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:58 am

Sjtstudios wrote:
This is a generalization and I don’t mean to put words in people’s mouth. But I thing people misrepresent the industry wide-body growth by calling it downsizing. The 787 and a350 are efficient and arguably have some of the best profitability for their manufacturers and operators alike. Airlines that couldn’t afford wide bodies or maybe a handful of 777s are buying these aircraft by the 10s.

There is more competition as traffic becomes less concentrated. There is some downsizing as legacy airlines choose these aircraft for leaner operations and some economies of scale. These aircraft are incredibly successful at making a profit on competitive routes. But you can’t rule out the 777X just because it’s the new XL aircraft. It’s going to own trunk routes and make it easier for the operators to defend market share. And with more and bigger cities, it won’t go away.


But that is the point, only the trunk routes that are long enough to make the heavy 777X somewhat competitive. Otherwise you just use 787-10 or A350-1000. Or even two 787-9 or two A350-900. There are actually not that many slot constrained airports in the world where you need massive aircrafts to provide enough capacity.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:13 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
2175301 wrote:
...
Should travel pick back up to previous levels... the 777-8/9 might push 1000+ units in 20-30 years (with most of that showing up a decade+ from now).

Have a great day,


Way too optimistic. My guesstimate 250-300 at best, because there is too little demand and too many options in WB segment.

The most successful large long range WB 77W sold only 830 copies.
The most successful VLA A380 sold less than 300.
This happened during aviation boom and without much competition.
777X is neither and there is a WB glut.

Can a program survive with 12/year production rate?

Thats too low, I put it at 400-500 (500 being the absolute maximum), I benchmark it at the 747-400 = 440 units. What you're saying is that this aircraft won't pass the orders it has received, the only way that can happen is if it fails on economics/fuel effieciency(highly doubt that), its too big(it's closer in size to the 77W the 380 still gaps it by over 150 seats in a standard config), it can't operate in all airports(it obviously can as we all know), can't carry any cargo(has more cargo capacity than the 77W) and lacks versatility like the 380. A lot of people were ready to order more 380s before it joined their fleet then they realised how overhyped it was. Like I said, I don't disagree that there are many options on the market, which is why I've taken the 77W units and split it in half basically but like I've said previously there are many major carriers that need the size that no 350 nor 787 can provide, This is like me saying oh right there's a 787 for transatlantic but there's also an A321XLR that can do that as well, I'm sure its obvious why one would take the 787 over the A321XLR in this scenario(capacity). simple as. and to provide that with the economics of the 779 that is a nice spot for 350-400 seaters or airlines with heavy premium cabins, the A380 burns more fuel than a 747-400 for Godssake how can it ever last.

There's this idea that (let's forget covid) every aircraft that sits over 300 passengers is inefficient, or no airline is looking for those numbers, which is untrue. the A35K and the 779 do very well to break that idea. Like I said in some instances the 787/359 can AND will take away 77W orders where the demand is more represented by that, is that every route? no. the higher density routes will need that size of aircraft. passengers were flying now more than ever (again in the absence of covid of course) so to say there are no numbers for major carriers to fill a 350-400 seater 779 on their high capacity routes is just I mean
 
inkjet7
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:52 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.


But the etihad uses 78710 just fine? Same climates no?


But do they use it in the same way as their competitor?
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:01 pm

Large planes are only needed for range, frequency trumps capacity and the 787 hit the sweet spot in capability that's why it will not be as popular as previous versions of this plane. The question then becomes will the airlines that originally ordered be in a shape to receive it. The answer to that seems to be at this time yes, but not as many and not as quickly. High frame output seems to be the key to profitability because of efficiency savings. Right now that proposition looks difficult with so much uncertainty.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:04 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:

Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.

But the etihad uses 78710 just fine? Same climates no?

But do they use it in the same way as their competitor?

EK seems reluctant to leave behind pax or cargo during the hottest days so they seem to prefer 789 to 78J and A359 to A35K.

EY seems to do its own thing.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:41 pm

Opus99 wrote:
...
There's this idea that (let's forget covid) every aircraft that sits over 300 passengers is inefficient, or no airline is looking for those numbers, which is untrue. the A35K and the 779 do very well to break that idea. Like I said in some instances the 787/359 can AND will take away 77W orders where the demand is more represented by that, is that every route? no. the higher density routes will need that size of aircraft. passengers were flying now more than ever (again in the absence of covid of course) so to say there are no numbers for major carriers to fill a 350-400 seater 779 on their high capacity routes is just I mean


Let me try to respond without causing thread drift.

There are other ways to fix the real hidden issue behind the problem you explained. It is not the frame size, it is cities hanging on to their airports in the middle of world's largest urban centers and the unnecessary desire to funnel entire world through their airport. DXB shows even if you build a hub in the middle of nowhere and try to hub everyone you will run out of space. Urban center airports should be for O&D, and the airport numbers game (i.e., who has the biggest) is distorting travel patterns and causing environmental damage.

Detailed discussion abt airport congestion is off-topic. Lets leave at that.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:50 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.



Like, how do they expect to solve the climate problem by switching variant? That's what confused me.
The 757-MAX is happening tomorrow.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:36 pm

marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


So why did Boeing develop the 747-8?
Good moaning!
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:45 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.



Like, how do they expect to solve the climate problem by switching variant? That's what confused me.

The 789 has the same MTOW and wing/engines as the 787-10, but for a given route will have less passenger payload (because 789s seat less people). That makes it easier to deal with the climate restrictions and leave with a full plane.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?

I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.


Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.
Good moaning!
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:53 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?

I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.


Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Lufthansa believes they have too many on order? I didn’t know that. Where did they elude to it. From their last communication they are not cancelling any aircraft they have an order...
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.


Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Lufthansa believes they have too many on order? I didn’t know that. Where did they elude to it. From their last communication they are not cancelling any aircraft they have an order...


The myth about Lufthansa having too many 777X on order dates from an interview with Carsten Spohr many years ago. He said they MAY have ordered too many 777X, but this was at the time when LH listed 34 777X on order in their books. However, Boeing only counted 20, as 14 of the 34 were reconfirmable orders. LH decided around a year ago not to reconfirm these 14. But many posters here still believe LH wants to reduce the 20 firm 777X orders too.

I can't say for sure LH will take the full 20 on order with the current crisis, rumors say LH was looking to swap a few 777-9 frames for 777F. But I don't think this will still happen, And LH is on record saying they expect their first 777X next year.
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:40 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that. Other posters have suggested that the re-engine-ing of the 787/350 will make the 777X redundant. On the other hand what will happen in the world post-covid - who knows?

I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Really, 309 orders are not a good degree of acceptance before EIS? For a point of comparison, A380 had 177 pax orders at EIS ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries ) and that included the dubious Kingfisher and Virgin orders. It was also a clean sheet with a much bigger spend than 777x has, and where Airbus had the freedom to target any market segment they wanted since they had a blank check. Therefore I feel my statement is quite justified.

I think my comment should be read in the full context which I included above. If you were expecting 777x to have order books the size of 787 or A350 before EIS, then IMO you have unrealistic expectations. 777x was aimed at a certain niche and captured some customers such as BA and LH before EIS that I didn't expect nor did many others considering what I've read here on a.net. As above, COVID-19 is a wildcard and has the entire industry looking to defer orders across the board. For instance Airbus has cut A320 production from 60 to 40 per month but that doesn't mean there's something wrong with the A320, it means there's something wrong with the airline industry.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:14 pm

The 737 and 747 programs both started slowly and look where they ended up. The 777X will be a success. 309 orders the 777X has are more than the two programs I mentioned had when they entered production. The 747-100 was launched with an order for 25 from Pan Am. The 737 with an order for 30 from Lufthansa.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I agree. 77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

Hmm, 309 orders doesn't say much. If I may add some nuance: Emirates already trimmed its order backlog from 150 to 115 aircraft. Cathay Pacific is looking to defer deliveries, Lufthansa believes they have too many 777X on order and Etihad Airways is not in a position to take the aircraft but cannot get out of the contract. This "degree of acceptance" is lower then you might think.

Really, 309 orders are not a good degree of acceptance before EIS? For a point of comparison, A380 had 177 pax orders at EIS ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... deliveries ) and that included the dubious Kingfisher and Virgin orders. It was also a clean sheet with a much bigger spend than 777x has, and where Airbus had the freedom to target any market segment they wanted since they had a blank check. Therefore I feel my statement is quite justified.

I think my comment should be read in the full context which I included above. If you were expecting 777x to have order books the size of 787 or A350 before EIS, then IMO you have unrealistic expectations. 777x was aimed at a certain niche and captured some customers such as BA and LH before EIS that I didn't expect nor did many others considering what I've read here on a.net. As above, COVID-19 is a wildcard and has the entire industry looking to defer orders across the board. For instance Airbus has cut A320 production from 60 to 40 per month but that doesn't mean there's something wrong with the A320, it means there's something wrong with the airline industry.


309 is a bad number for such program. For many reasons. First of all, unlike other widebody, it doesn't have strong offering. B787 are small and efficient, A350 are extremely efficient and powerful for longer missions.
Second of all, the order book have been extremely dry in the last few years. Also, some of the airlines who ordered the aircraft are in hot water (CX + EY).
Third, it have strong competitor from smaller A350-1000. When B777-300ER comes around, there is 0 aircraft that have similar specifications, A380 were too big, and A340-600 were extremely inefficient. It have no competitor at all. Now they have better options to choose for. If B777-300ER had a similar competitor from airbus (maybe twin engine A340-600), their sales wouldn't be as good as it is today.

Currently, Etihad confirm that they only gonna take 6 B777X. Which mean that the confirmed order would be down to just 290 order. If Cathay successfully convert all their order to B787, then the order book would be down to 269 aircraft. And then we got 10 Unidentified customer(s). We got no confirmation yet on who they are and how their financial situation would be. I wouldn't out my money on those 10 Unidentified orders.

Cutting production doesn't mean that the program gonna dies off. But dwindling order book and lack of new order is.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:36 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
The 737 and 747 programs both started slowly and look where they ended up. The 777X will be a success. 309 orders the 777X has are more than the two programs I mentioned had when they entered production. The 747-100 was launched with an order for 25 from Pan Am. The 737 with an order for 30 from Lufthansa.


B777X is a mature product. They are not similar in any way with B747-100.

It's been 7 YEARS since the first order coming in for B777X. This is not a new aircraft.

Unlike B747 with no competitor, B777X have a strong competitor from the smaller A350-1000.

The order Book currently stands at 290 rather than 309 because of Etihad. With more potential for cancellations or conversion.

Many B777-300ER are extremely young. Majority of them are being delivered after 2010. It hit peaked production during mid 2010s. Which mean that they would need replacement during 2030-2035. Would the B777X survived until those time?
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:43 pm

Revelation wrote:
EK seems reluctant to leave behind pax or cargo during the hottest days so they seem to prefer 789 to 78J and A359 to A35K.

EY seems to do its own thing.


And we all know which of the two is by far the better run airline.

frigatebird wrote:
The myth about Lufthansa having too many 777X on order dates from an interview with Carsten Spohr many years ago. He said they MAY have ordered too many 777X, but this was at the time when LH listed 34 777X on order in their books.


But it wasn't really a myth, was it? He said "We may have ordered too many 777X and too few A350s". Subsequently, their 777X commitments were reduced and additional A350s ordered.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:33 am

ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program. For many reasons. First of all, unlike other widebody, it doesn't have strong offering. B787 are small and efficient, A350 are extremely efficient and powerful for longer missions.
Second of all, the order book have been extremely dry in the last few years. Also, some of the airlines who ordered the aircraft are in hot water (CX + EY).
Third, it have strong competitor from smaller A350-1000. When B777-300ER comes around, there is 0 aircraft that have similar specifications, A380 were too big, and A340-600 were extremely inefficient. It have no competitor at all. Now they have better options to choose for. If B777-300ER had a similar competitor from airbus (maybe twin engine A340-600), their sales wouldn't be as good as it is today.

Currently, Etihad confirm that they only gonna take 6 B777X. Which mean that the confirmed order would be down to just 290 order. If Cathay successfully convert all their order to B787, then the order book would be down to 269 aircraft. And then we got 10 Unidentified customer(s). We got no confirmation yet on who they are and how their financial situation would be. I wouldn't out my money on those 10 Unidentified orders.

Cutting production doesn't mean that the program gonna dies off. But dwindling order book and lack of new order is.

Well if 309 is a bad number for 777x before EIS then 171 for A380 must have been dreadful since it was a clean sheet that Airbus could have positioned anywhere it wanted it to be. 777x now has more orders than A380s ever sold in 20 years of trying.

If you are comparing 777x numbers to A350 and 787 numbers then you are starting out with unrealistic expectations, IMO.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:51 am

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program. For many reasons. First of all, unlike other widebody, it doesn't have strong offering. B787 are small and efficient, A350 are extremely efficient and powerful for longer missions.
Second of all, the order book have been extremely dry in the last few years. Also, some of the airlines who ordered the aircraft are in hot water (CX + EY).
Third, it have strong competitor from smaller A350-1000. When B777-300ER comes around, there is 0 aircraft that have similar specifications, A380 were too big, and A340-600 were extremely inefficient. It have no competitor at all. Now they have better options to choose for. If B777-300ER had a similar competitor from airbus (maybe twin engine A340-600), their sales wouldn't be as good as it is today.

Currently, Etihad confirm that they only gonna take 6 B777X. Which mean that the confirmed order would be down to just 290 order. If Cathay successfully convert all their order to B787, then the order book would be down to 269 aircraft. And then we got 10 Unidentified customer(s). We got no confirmation yet on who they are and how their financial situation would be. I wouldn't out my money on those 10 Unidentified orders.

Cutting production doesn't mean that the program gonna dies off. But dwindling order book and lack of new order is.

Well if 309 is a bad number for 777x before EIS then 171 for A380 must have been dreadful since it was a clean sheet that Airbus could have positioned anywhere it wanted it to be. 777x now has more orders than A380s ever sold in 20 years of trying.

If you are comparing 777x numbers to A350 and 787 numbers then you are starting out with unrealistic expectations, IMO.


Comparing your current product to a failed one doesn't suggest "bright future" isn't it?
Like it or not, first gen B777 got it right. B777-300ER success also anchored in B777-200ER success.

B777X supposed to be replacement and upgrade for the original B777. But the timing, and the situation didn't align well.
Many B777-200ER are being replaced by combination of B787-9/-10 and A350-900. B777-300ER is still young and extremely efficient. A350-1000 have small backlogs which mean that airlines could order it and not have to wait for 5-8 years.

There isn't many reason for many airlines to buy B777X. The order book started to dwindle little by little. Lack of New Customers. Many potential cancellations and conversion. This started to look more like A380 situation. The numbers don't lie. And the pandemic didn't help either.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:47 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


So why did Boeing develop the 747-8?

Good question. To have a 744F successor and an alternative for the A388.

IMHO the 779 isn’t developed as a “niche”. It’s developed to be a successor of the 77W with some added “real estate”. Aircraft manufacturers don’t invest billions to fill a “niche”. Planes are called “niche” when it doesn’t meet the forecasted numbers...
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:56 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
marcelh wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The 777X is a niche aircraft, only a little more capable than the larger 787/350s. It likely will have a long but not spectacular sales history. It is not and was not intended to be a game changer in the current sales distribution. The previous 777W turned out to be, and succeeded, the 380 intended to be a game changer, and a big one at that.

Boeing did not spend billions just to fill a niche.


So why did Boeing develop the 747-8?


It developed it as a passenger VLA to compete with the A380, driven at the time by a lot of hype generated saying the A380 would not be able to fit at many airports, the -F was a by product. History shows almost all of the 744 operators either went to either the A380 or 77W.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:22 am

Boeing757100 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
And when they switched the 787-10 to 787-9, that made me more confused.


Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.



Like, how do they expect to solve the climate problem by switching variant? That's what confused me.


The climate problem has been solved by COVID, eliminate 90% of international flights and there is quite a lot less pollution. Way more improvement than switching variants.

_____

For everyone above arguing who will order the A350 and who will order the 77X. The correct answer is NO ONE - for over the next year, not one airline has the cash or desire to order right now, and if they did have the cash they are waiting to see what great "buy 3 for the price of one" yard sales that are on the horizon - there will be great used plane sales coming up in all parts of the globe.

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