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Faro
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:45 am

ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program.



Admittedly 310 is better...and so is 610...but unless you are privy to the actual 777X R&D, testing and production cost figures, 309 being 'bad' is quite a wobbly proposition...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:58 am

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program.



Admittedly 310 is better...and so is 610...but unless you are privy to the actual 777X R&D, testing and production cost figures, 309 being 'bad' is quite a wobbly proposition...


Faro


Into that 309 figure are orders for the 777-8, which right now has been shelved. While not outright cancelled, there are many doubts that Boeing will produce a passenger version.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:07 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:

Because the 787-9 does not suffer from the climate problem as much as the 787-10 does? Must be ideal for thinner routes.



Like, how do they expect to solve the climate problem by switching variant? That's what confused me.


The climate problem has been solved by COVID, eliminate 90% of international flights and there is quite a lot less pollution. Way more improvement than switching variants.

_____

For everyone above arguing who will order the A350 and who will order the 77X. The correct answer is NO ONE - for over the next year, not one airline has the cash or desire to order right now, and if they did have the cash they are waiting to see what great "buy 3 for the price of one" yard sales that are on the horizon - there will be great used plane sales coming up in all parts of the globe.



I meant the hot and humid Dubai climate, NOT global warming.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program. For many reasons. First of all, unlike other widebody, it doesn't have strong offering. B787 are small and efficient, A350 are extremely efficient and powerful for longer missions.
Second of all, the order book have been extremely dry in the last few years. Also, some of the airlines who ordered the aircraft are in hot water (CX + EY).
Third, it have strong competitor from smaller A350-1000. When B777-300ER comes around, there is 0 aircraft that have similar specifications, A380 were too big, and A340-600 were extremely inefficient. It have no competitor at all. Now they have better options to choose for. If B777-300ER had a similar competitor from airbus (maybe twin engine A340-600), their sales wouldn't be as good as it is today.

Currently, Etihad confirm that they only gonna take 6 B777X. Which mean that the confirmed order would be down to just 290 order. If Cathay successfully convert all their order to B787, then the order book would be down to 269 aircraft. And then we got 10 Unidentified customer(s). We got no confirmation yet on who they are and how their financial situation would be. I wouldn't out my money on those 10 Unidentified orders.

Cutting production doesn't mean that the program gonna dies off. But dwindling order book and lack of new order is.

Well if 309 is a bad number for 777x before EIS then 171 for A380 must have been dreadful since it was a clean sheet that Airbus could have positioned anywhere it wanted it to be. 777x now has more orders than A380s ever sold in 20 years of trying.

If you are comparing 777x numbers to A350 and 787 numbers then you are starting out with unrealistic expectations, IMO.


You would expect lower numbers for a larger aircraft, so not an apples to apples comparison, but no, 171 isn't a great number (though worth noting that 270 was the initial breakeven number for the A380, that moved because Airbus really screwed up on the execution). As noted above though, the A380 was not a success, so comparing numbers to an unsuccessful program tells you only so much. 309 isn't too bad for the 777X, but with a fair few of those orders being uncertain and the climate being what it is there's cause for concern. With the delay airlines might see an opportunity to cancel and convert or defer with minimal/no penalty, which could be problematic for Boeing. I'm sure they'll take 787 orders, but the 787 is healthy now, the 777X won't be if EK, EY, QR and CX downsize/convert their orders, which EK and CX are/were considering, and EY weren't in good health even before Covid.

On a similar note, how many airlines have put First Class seats in an A350 or 787? The 777X will be very good for high demand premium routes, but how well could the smaller craft handle such routes with additional frequencies? Only LHR really has the desperate need for larger aircraft because of their slot situation, otherwise maybe the demand that Opus99 speaks of could be handled by the 787/A350, especially the A35K.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:37 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
You would expect lower numbers for a larger aircraft, so not an apples to apples comparison, but no, 171 isn't a great number (though worth noting that 270 was the initial breakeven number for the A380, that moved because Airbus really screwed up on the execution). As noted above though, the A380 was not a success, so comparing numbers to an unsuccessful program tells you only so much. 309 isn't too bad for the 777X, but with a fair few of those orders being uncertain and the climate being what it is there's cause for concern. With the delay airlines might see an opportunity to cancel and convert or defer with minimal/no penalty, which could be problematic for Boeing. I'm sure they'll take 787 orders, but the 787 is healthy now, the 777X won't be if EK, EY, QR and CX downsize/convert their orders, which EK and CX are/were considering, and EY weren't in good health even before Covid.

On a similar note, how many airlines have put First Class seats in an A350 or 787? The 777X will be very good for high demand premium routes, but how well could the smaller craft handle such routes with additional frequencies? Only LHR really has the desperate need for larger aircraft because of their slot situation, otherwise maybe the demand that Opus99 speaks of could be handled by the 787/A350, especially the A35K.

Again, for context, the premise I am suggesting is:

77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

And yes there is cause for concern. Air traffic has collapsed and airlines are in a life or death struggle. The situation has changed dramatically for the worse especially for large aircraft and at a bad point in time for the program. Pretty much every airline order on every book is subject to renegotiation. Airbus is said to have posted dozens of letters of default to airlines and has cut production by a third across the board. Yet the die is literally already cast for the 77X. The test aircraft are up and Boeing has already produced frames destined for ANA, LH and EK. What the future holds is anyone's guess, but my post wasn't about the future, it was about the degree of market acceptance 777X found leading up to EIS.

I know comparing to A380 is not the best comparison, but the idea is to highlight that 77X is still early in its life cycle. It's still more valid than some of the comparisons we've seen here like comparing 77X expectations to that of the entire previous 777 family with its 25 year life in service. Clearly Boeing knew equaling that market performance would not happen because they were already seeing 789s being sold to replace 772 and 78J replacing 744 on TATL runs before they launched 77X and obviously knew their competitor targeted a clean sheet right at the heart of the 777 lineup. As above I can imagine they were pleased they were able to place 77X at airlines that had already taken A359 and A35K because it validated that the market saw a role for the aircraft. This is why I said they were getting about as much market acceptance as they could have hoped for.
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
You would expect lower numbers for a larger aircraft, so not an apples to apples comparison, but no, 171 isn't a great number (though worth noting that 270 was the initial breakeven number for the A380, that moved because Airbus really screwed up on the execution). As noted above though, the A380 was not a success, so comparing numbers to an unsuccessful program tells you only so much. 309 isn't too bad for the 777X, but with a fair few of those orders being uncertain and the climate being what it is there's cause for concern. With the delay airlines might see an opportunity to cancel and convert or defer with minimal/no penalty, which could be problematic for Boeing. I'm sure they'll take 787 orders, but the 787 is healthy now, the 777X won't be if EK, EY, QR and CX downsize/convert their orders, which EK and CX are/were considering, and EY weren't in good health even before Covid.

On a similar note, how many airlines have put First Class seats in an A350 or 787? The 777X will be very good for high demand premium routes, but how well could the smaller craft handle such routes with additional frequencies? Only LHR really has the desperate need for larger aircraft because of their slot situation, otherwise maybe the demand that Opus99 speaks of could be handled by the 787/A350, especially the A35K.

Again, for context, the premise I am suggesting is:

77X is right about where its business plan suggested it should be. 309 orders before EIS from blue chip customers around the world, many of whom are A350 customers, some of whom are A350-1000 customers. It found as good a degree of acceptance as I think could have been expected.

And yes there is cause for concern. Air traffic has collapsed and airlines are in a life or death struggle. The situation has changed dramatically for the worse especially for large aircraft and at a bad point in time for the program. Pretty much every airline order on every book is subject to renegotiation. Airbus is said to have posted dozens of letters of default to airlines and has cut production by a third across the board. Yet the die is literally already cast for the 77X. The test aircraft are up and Boeing has already produced frames destined for ANA, LH and EK. What the future holds is anyone's guess, but my post wasn't about the future, it was about the degree of market acceptance 777X found leading up to EIS.

I know comparing to A380 is not the best comparison, but the idea is to highlight that 77X is still early in its life cycle. It's still more valid than some of the comparisons we've seen here like comparing 77X expectations to that of the entire previous 777 family with its 25 year life in service. Clearly Boeing knew equaling that market performance would not happen because they were already seeing 789s being sold to replace 772 and 78J replacing 744 on TATL runs before they launched 77X and obviously knew their competitor targeted a clean sheet right at the heart of the 777 lineup. As above I can imagine they were pleased they were able to place 77X at airlines that had already taken A359 and A35K because it validated that the market saw a role for the aircraft. This is why I said they were getting about as much market acceptance as they could have hoped for.


I think they'd have been hoping for 500-600+ at the outset, let's say just over half of the 77W (900 odd sold), but then also A380s (just over 250), and any lingering 744s (maybe 200-300 at the time of launch?) should be their main markets. I think in the current climate anywhere near 400 would be a good return, maybe more if the situation gets better fairly quickly.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:21 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... into-2022/

This definitely gives a bit more beef! Dominic Gates had a sit down with Tim Clark over the 777X and the pandemic for them.

Key Takeaways
- Emirates looking to Push 777x deliveries to 2022
- Some 777x conversion to 787 is most likely going to happen ( expect those 777x reconfirmations (11) to be moved to 787s and some options too - my guess)
- 777-300ERs have kept emirates afloat in the pandemic as its been fantastic at freighter work
- Clark says 777X is a brilliant airliner and very elegant replacement for the 777-300ER
- It is clear that coronavirus and greater scrutiny might not allow Boeing to deliver the 777x next year and it is probably in the interest of both parties to move it back
 
xwb777
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:01 pm

According to the following article, Sir Tim Clark has stated that Emirates will take delivery of all remaning A380s on order, three by year end and five next year.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... into-2022/
 
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Revelation
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:21 pm

xwb777 wrote:
According to the following article, Sir Tim Clark has stated that Emirates will take delivery of all remaning A380s on order, three by year end and five next year.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... into-2022/

He doesn't actually say that.

Here's how the quote reads:

Clark said Emirates is contracted with Airbus to take three A380 superjumbo jets by year end and an additional “four or five” next year. At real prices after standard discounts, that’s about $1.5 billion worth of airplanes Emirates is legally bound to take.

He never said he will take them, he just says contracts are in place for them.

Contracts are subject to re-negotiation so we'll see where things end up.

He also says:

He believes the coming year will be “absolute harrowing” for the business, even for an airline as successful and with such deep pockets as Emirates. He’s hoping a COVID-19 vaccine will be available by 2022 to bring back a semblance of previous industry conditions.

If we don’t start putting people on airplanes sooner rather than later, we’ll face difficulties as well,” he said. “We have to hold our nerve, keep ourselves financially positive with the help of the government, and tough it out until then.”

It suggests to me he'd be glad to get out of the contracts if he can negotiate a way out of them.

The article also says "He said he’s likely to finally take his leave next month and return to the U.K., while remaining an adviser to Emirates chief Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum." so we'll see if he's in the decision loop going forward.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
32andBelow
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:42 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Who are they going to hire after proving they’ll just drop you immediately in a downturn?


I'm not trying to defend Emirates right now, rather just trying to state the facts - but I'm not sure that this downturn can be extrapolated to all future downturns. We've never seen the likes of this kind of demand shock to aviation ever. In an ordinary economic recession Emirates has proved to be fairly resilient. Dubai, and much of the rest of the GCC, was already in an economic recession before covid. During 08/09, Emirates had one of their largest hiring sprees in their history.

There are (and will be) thousands of pilots without jobs as airlines make permanent fleet cuts. Many have, and I'm sure many will, jump ship even if they're on a union callback list. The lucrative aspect of getting a job with Emirates was a chance to jump to the bigger equipment quicker than you might have at your home airline. I'm not sure that will change in the future.

The ME3 is different when you move your life half way around the world to fulfill a contract. Emirates should fulfill their portion
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:29 pm

I wonder if Emirates could actually take advantage of this situation and keep the A380 fleet going for longer. New builds will not be available and lease rates will be almost nothing, so instead of retiring them at 12 they could keep flying them for another 10 years or so and cannibalize some of the unused ones.
 
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MillwallSean
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:14 am

32andBelow wrote:
The ME3 is different when you move your life half way around the world to fulfill a contract. Emirates should fulfill their portion


I am struggling with this, EK should fulfil their portion. Cant say that I have much good to say about EK but i am at a loss as to why they are singled out, they are presently trying to survive and their flight schedule is 10% of what it used to be. Its pretty clear that in such a market there will be redundancies and restructuring. In the western world such redundancies follows transparent set parameters agreed on in advance while in expatistan it is management who has sole power to, in any way they so wish, decide who that is made redundant. That cant come as a surprise to anyone (if it is, I really think those employees haven't done their homework).

Leaving for 'expatistan' always sees a risk element to the contract. There is a trade off and its wise to be aware of it before one signs any employment contract in a different jurisdiction to ones own. Going overseas means change, there is no employment relations, there is no employment legislation to speak of but there is higher pay and greater responsibility and in the right places a good lifestyle. When a downturn comes (and it always does) its not fair. Its not about being the best employee, its about being the one that for some reason management want to keep or like. Welcome to the harsh world of being an expat. we are paid more and better but we need to accept that there is less employment security, generally a complete lack of transparency and fairness. If one cant accept that conundrum - better career/pay but much worse employment security - being an expat is not the right choice.

Remember the SE Asian carriers, they were unbeatable in the 1990ies. Then the Asian financial crisis of 1998 hit and all changed. I feel we will see the same thing with EK, it will be there and it will maintain its strengths, but its day as a world disruptor is over. They are an incumbent now and will be chased instead of chasing.

---------------------------

I don't agree with India as a lost cause. Air India might be, but India in itself is finally starting to see a good enough infrastructure to be able to, should they go for it, compete. As airports and systems in India slowly improve, the market becomes more and more resilient. Will India ever serve as a huge connecting hub, well, to do so they need to build a brand new spanking huge airport and I don't see that soon.
However what their carriers will do is slowly but steadily eat marketshare currently held by other Asian airlines, especially the ME ones. Indian lowcost carriers will chip away at the bottom end / VFR market and affect overall pricing negatively as well as opening more and more direct routes out of India. Step by step Indian carriers will increase their marketshare on routes from India. The A321 of Indigo for example has the potential to become a real disruptor to the Middle Eastern carriers serving the Indian market.
When India wants, when politics don't interfere to much (worried what Spicejets newfound influence will do to the market) and have a strong enough business owner, they can deliver. Something Indigo has shown.
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ewt340
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:00 am

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program.



Admittedly 310 is better...and so is 610...but unless you are privy to the actual 777X R&D, testing and production cost figures, 309 being 'bad' is quite a wobbly proposition...


Faro


It's bad because of its specifications. 2 different aircraft which only few airlines could successfully operate. It's large, expensive, and have strong competitions from cheaper smaller more efficient B787 and A350 who could fly as far and even more.

Secondly, many of the orders are on the shaky ground, really shaky ground. The realistic order book now dip below 300 which consist mostly of the larger variant.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:01 am

MillwallSean wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The ME3 is different when you move your life half way around the world to fulfill a contract. Emirates should fulfill their portion


I am struggling with this, EK should fulfil their portion. Cant say that I have much good to say about EK but i am at a loss as to why they are singled out, they are presently trying to survive and their flight schedule is 10% of what it used to be. Its pretty clear that in such a market there will be redundancies and restructuring. In the western world such redundancies follows transparent set parameters agreed on in advance while in expatistan it is management who has sole power to, in any way they so wish, decide who that is made redundant. That cant come as a surprise to anyone (if it is, I really think those employees haven't done their homework).

Leaving for 'expatistan' always sees a risk element to the contract. There is a trade off and its wise to be aware of it before one signs any employment contract in a different jurisdiction to ones own. Going overseas means change, there is no employment relations, there is no employment legislation to speak of but there is higher pay and greater responsibility and in the right places a good lifestyle. When a downturn comes (and it always does) its not fair. Its not about being the best employee, its about being the one that for some reason management want to keep or like. Welcome to the harsh world of being an expat. we are paid more and better but we need to accept that there is less employment security, generally a complete lack of transparency and fairness. If one cant accept that conundrum - better career/pay but much worse employment security - being an expat is not the right choice.

Remember the SE Asian carriers, they were unbeatable in the 1990ies. Then the Asian financial crisis of 1998 hit and all changed. I feel we will see the same thing with EK, it will be there and it will maintain its strengths, but its day as a world disruptor is over. They are an incumbent now and will be chased instead of chasing.

---------------------------

I don't agree with India as a lost cause. Air India might be, but India in itself is finally starting to see a good enough infrastructure to be able to, should they go for it, compete. As airports and systems in India slowly improve, the market becomes more and more resilient. Will India ever serve as a huge connecting hub, well, to do so they need to build a brand new spanking huge airport and I don't see that soon.
However what their carriers will do is slowly but steadily eat marketshare currently held by other Asian airlines, especially the ME ones. Indian lowcost carriers will chip away at the bottom end / VFR market and affect overall pricing negatively as well as opening more and more direct routes out of India. Step by step Indian carriers will increase their marketshare on routes from India. The A321 of Indigo for example has the potential to become a real disruptor to the Middle Eastern carriers serving the Indian market.
When India wants, when politics don't interfere to much (worried what Spicejets newfound influence will do to the market) and have a strong enough business owner, they can deliver. Something Indigo has shown.

India, if they build large enough hubs with good transit could be a competitor. But to connect to as many cities as possible, there must be connecting traffic. I've read Dubai had 30% O&D traffic. There amazing route network was built on connecting anywhere to almost anywhere. The 30% fuel taxes if India make that difficult to be competitive. They do well domestic, but for long haul that is a challenge.

For Emirates, I worry more what IST will do to the competition. Going from 2 crossed runways (1.5 runways effective capacity, at best) to 3 parallel runways opens up the opportunities.

I also think Ethiopian is an interesting, if imperfectly run, competitor. If their home airport is expanded or replaced, they will do well too.

In my opinion, the biggest challenge to the A388s returning us P2P. While PER-LHR was unusual and about half connecting traffic (mostly from MEL, but other Southern Australia), the way to defeat the ME3 is bypass. The A321xLR, hypothetical -9 MAX ER, 787, and A350 all present options for that bypass.

Heck Indigo was flying to IST with just A321NEO.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
A330Inter
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:46 am

MillwallSean wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
The ME3 is different when you move your life half way around the world to fulfill a contract. Emirates should fulfill their portion


I am struggling with this, EK should fulfil their portion. Cant say that I have much good to say about EK but i am at a loss as to why they are singled out, they are presently trying to survive and their flight schedule is 10% of what it used to be. Its pretty clear that in such a market there will be redundancies and restructuring. In the western world such redundancies follows transparent set parameters agreed on in advance while in expatistan it is management who has sole power to, in any way they so wish, decide who that is made redundant. That cant come as a surprise to anyone (if it is, I really think those employees haven't done their homework).

Leaving for 'expatistan' always sees a risk element to the contract. There is a trade off and its wise to be aware of it before one signs any employment contract in a different jurisdiction to ones own. Going overseas means change, there is no employment relations, there is no employment legislation to speak of but there is higher pay and greater responsibility and in the right places a good lifestyle. When a downturn comes (and it always does) its not fair. Its not about being the best employee, its about being the one that for some reason management want to keep or like. Welcome to the harsh world of being an expat. we are paid more and better but we need to accept that there is less employment security, generally a complete lack of transparency and fairness. If one cant accept that conundrum - better career/pay but much worse employment security - being an expat is not the right choice.

Remember the SE Asian carriers, they were unbeatable in the 1990ies. Then the Asian financial crisis of 1998 hit and all changed. I feel we will see the same thing with EK, it will be there and it will maintain its strengths, but its day as a world disruptor is over. They are an incumbent now and will be chased instead of chasing.


Completely agree with your view, nobody is forced to be an expat' and work for ME3 (or any other international business)
When moving to a country with such a different culture and history, one should assess the potential risks that come with the benefits. Conditions in the UAE are usually pretty good for western expats:
- safe environment to live in
- high salary
- exposure to high responsibilities much quicker than in your home country
- very well connected to the rest of the world
The money doesn't come for free and this lifestyle doesn't suit everyone either.
In general with high risks come greater reward but if you are not in a position to take that risk then definitely should not move there.
I'm not worried for Emirates about finding people to work for them, even highly qualified too.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:47 am

A330Inter wrote:
Conditions in the UAE are usually pretty good for western expats:
- safe environment to live in
- high salary
- exposure to high responsibilities much quicker than in your home country
- very well connected to the rest of the world
The money doesn't come for free and this lifestyle doesn't suit everyone either.
In general with high risks come greater reward but if you are not in a position to take that risk then definitely should not move there.
I'm not worried for Emirates about finding people to work for them, even highly qualified too.


That explanation was a good sidebar at roadshows in pre-COVID, but now with less than 50% basic pay without any allowances, debt to their eyeballs, UAE ready to throw the rule book, forget about comfort or lifestyle, it is about survival to many young people who never faced anything like this in their lifetime. Would UAE show them an easy way out or strictly prosecute for every $ they owe.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
According to the following article, Sir Tim Clark has stated that Emirates will take delivery of all remaning A380s on order, three by year end and five next year.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... into-2022/

He doesn't actually say that.

Here's how the quote reads:

Clark said Emirates is contracted with Airbus to take three A380 superjumbo jets by year end and an additional “four or five” next year. At real prices after standard discounts, that’s about $1.5 billion worth of airplanes Emirates is legally bound to take.

He never said he will take them, he just says contracts are in place for them.

Contracts are subject to re-negotiation so we'll see where things end up.

He also says:

He believes the coming year will be “absolute harrowing” for the business, even for an airline as successful and with such deep pockets as Emirates. He’s hoping a COVID-19 vaccine will be available by 2022 to bring back a semblance of previous industry conditions.

If we don’t start putting people on airplanes sooner rather than later, we’ll face difficulties as well,” he said. “We have to hold our nerve, keep ourselves financially positive with the help of the government, and tough it out until then.”

It suggests to me he'd be glad to get out of the contracts if he can negotiate a way out of them.

The article also says "He said he’s likely to finally take his leave next month and return to the U.K., while remaining an adviser to Emirates chief Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum." so we'll see if he's in the decision loop going forward.



I am sure they would like to get out of a lot of contracts they have. If you choose to read the article that way then they have a contract with Boeing on the 777X. It doesn't mean they will take them only that there are contracts in place for them. :stirthepot:
 
A330Inter
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Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:59 pm

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:05 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Conditions in the UAE are usually pretty good for western expats:
- safe environment to live in
- high salary
- exposure to high responsibilities much quicker than in your home country
- very well connected to the rest of the world
The money doesn't come for free and this lifestyle doesn't suit everyone either.
In general with high risks come greater reward but if you are not in a position to take that risk then definitely should not move there.
I'm not worried for Emirates about finding people to work for them, even highly qualified too.


That explanation was a good sidebar at roadshows in pre-COVID, but now with less than 50% basic pay without any allowances, debt to their eyeballs, UAE ready to throw the rule book, forget about comfort or lifestyle, it is about survival to many young people who never faced anything like this in their lifetime. Would UAE show them an easy way out or strictly prosecute for every $ they owe.


Would you be given a free pass on your debt if it was your home country? Probably not
From what I understood, 50% pay cut was for mid-senior levels, junior profiles pay reduction was more in the range of 25% (for airlines).
Nevertheless, I believe for most Expat in the region the point is to save on money, not to build debt, but for the unfortunate I'm sure we will see another rush of one-way departures as the 2008 crisis leaving their cars in airport's parking lots....
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:43 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Conditions in the UAE are usually pretty good for western expats:
- safe environment to live in
- high salary
- exposure to high responsibilities much quicker than in your home country
- very well connected to the rest of the world
The money doesn't come for free and this lifestyle doesn't suit everyone either.
In general with high risks come greater reward but if you are not in a position to take that risk then definitely should not move there.
I'm not worried for Emirates about finding people to work for them, even highly qualified too.


That explanation was a good sidebar at roadshows in pre-COVID, but now with less than 50% basic pay without any allowances, debt to their eyeballs, UAE ready to throw the rule book, forget about comfort or lifestyle, it is about survival to many young people who never faced anything like this in their lifetime. Would UAE show them an easy way out or strictly prosecute for every $ they owe.

I think he did cover it well.

He said high risk, and yes, pandemics are an element of high risk.

I guess I learned being from a family of immigrants whose parents lived as refugees during and after WWII that life can put you into some really difficult situations no matter what your age is.

The reward side is being a flight crew member on a widebody aircraft a good ten to fifteen years ahead of your peers and locking in that earning power so much earlier. The risk side involved signing a training bond that most people can't pay off. You place your bets, you take your chances. I did a similar thing at a young age, leaving a career track position at IBM to become an independent contractor. Worst case for these young pilots is they do what it takes to get out of the sandpit and try to pay it off but if they fall short default on the bond and deal with a bad credit history.

enzo011 wrote:
I am sure they would like to get out of a lot of contracts they have. If you choose to read the article that way then they have a contract with Boeing on the 777X. It doesn't mean they will take them only that there are contracts in place for them. :stirthepot:


There's not too many different ways to read:

He believes the coming year will be “absolute harrowing” for the business, even for an airline as successful and with such deep pockets as Emirates.

No doubt they'd like to get out of 777x contracts and renegotiate if/when circumstances are better. As above, pretty much every airplane contract is at risk these days.

And again, my point is the quote did not say what you suggested it said. It just points out there is a contract, nothing more.
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:14 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Conditions in the UAE are usually pretty good for western expats:
- safe environment to live in
- high salary
- exposure to high responsibilities much quicker than in your home country
- very well connected to the rest of the world
The money doesn't come for free and this lifestyle doesn't suit everyone either.
In general with high risks come greater reward but if you are not in a position to take that risk then definitely should not move there.
I'm not worried for Emirates about finding people to work for them, even highly qualified too.


That explanation was a good sidebar at roadshows in pre-COVID, but now with less than 50% basic pay without any allowances, debt to their eyeballs, UAE ready to throw the rule book, forget about comfort or lifestyle, it is about survival to many young people who never faced anything like this in their lifetime. Would UAE show them an easy way out or strictly prosecute for every $ they owe.

I think he did cover it well.

He said high risk, and yes, pandemics are an element of high risk.


Yes he did, with a conclusion that Emirates will do just fine and the usual who cares about the expats, crew or employees.

Unlike other places Dubai and its promoted lifestyle, the investment schemes(diplomatic substitute) and the quirks in employee benefits lure people into a debt trap.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:23 pm

A330Inter wrote:
Would you be given a free pass on your debt if it was your home country? Probably not
From what I understood, 50% pay cut was for mid-senior levels, junior profiles pay reduction was more in the range of 25% (for airlines).
Nevertheless, I believe for most Expat in the region the point is to save on money, not to build debt, but for the unfortunate I'm sure we will see another rush of one-way departures as the 2008 crisis leaving their cars in airport's parking lots....


No, but in most countries you also wouldn't face the prospect of debtors' prison. Moreover, even if you'd like to pay off the debt, you're forbidden from leaving the country and have no prospects for obtaining employment there which would generate enough income to pay off those debts. What reasonable person wouldn't try to flee a no-win situation like that?
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:46 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

That explanation was a good sidebar at roadshows in pre-COVID, but now with less than 50% basic pay without any allowances, debt to their eyeballs, UAE ready to throw the rule book, forget about comfort or lifestyle, it is about survival to many young people who never faced anything like this in their lifetime. Would UAE show them an easy way out or strictly prosecute for every $ they owe.

I think he did cover it well.

He said high risk, and yes, pandemics are an element of high risk.


Yes he did, with a conclusion that Emirates will do just fine and the usual who cares about the expats, crew or employees.

Unlike other places Dubai and its promoted lifestyle, the investment schemes(diplomatic substitute) and the quirks in employee benefits lure people into a debt trap.


No no, I said Emirates will do fine in terms of being able to attract skilled resources and I stand by my comment. I never said that they don't care about their crews or employees.

Maybe to put things into perspective, I lived in Dubai for close to 10 years, never have I felt either lured or left out. I signed my contract on my own will and every bullet point of this contract has been respected, nothing more, nothing less. Their conditions are very generous in terms of salary and benefits, but it is also very clear that there is no social security in case things go south. So again it is up to you to perform your own risk assessment before moving there, but you can't turn around and request for the rules to be changed.

As I am not a crew and happy to hear if things are different on the flying side in terms of being lured in a debt trap. If you are referring to things outside of the airline environment I am not sure we can consider Emirates or any other airline liable for what their employees decide to do with their income, but this is just my view
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:38 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Unlike other places Dubai and its promoted lifestyle, the investment schemes(diplomatic substitute) and the quirks in employee benefits lure people into a debt trap.

I guess the trick then is to do your research and figure out where those "other places" you speak of are.

A330Inter wrote:
No no, I said Emirates will do fine in terms of being able to attract skilled resources and I stand by my comment. I never said that they don't care about their crews or employees.

Maybe to put things into perspective, I lived in Dubai for close to 10 years, never have I felt either lured or left out. I signed my contract on my own will and every bullet point of this contract has been respected, nothing more, nothing less. Their conditions are very generous in terms of salary and benefits, but it is also very clear that there is no social security in case things go south. So again it is up to you to perform your own risk assessment before moving there, but you can't turn around and request for the rules to be changed.

As I am not a crew and happy to hear if things are different on the flying side in terms of being lured in a debt trap. If you are referring to things outside of the airline environment I am not sure we can consider Emirates or any other airline liable for what their employees decide to do with their income, but this is just my view

I agree. I've watched a few videos and read a few articles and I think it's not very hard to get a good idea of what the deal EK puts onto the table is. There are so many resources for newbies to figure this stuff out. If they don't take advantage of that while making a major life decision, it's on them.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Sjtstudios
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:44 am

ewt340 wrote:
Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
309 is a bad number for such program.



Admittedly 310 is better...and so is 610...but unless you are privy to the actual 777X R&D, testing and production cost figures, 309 being 'bad' is quite a wobbly proposition...


Faro


It's bad because of its specifications. 2 different aircraft which only few airlines could successfully operate. It's large, expensive, and have strong competitions from cheaper smaller more efficient B787 and A350 who could fly as far and even more.

Secondly, many of the orders are on the shaky ground, really shaky ground. The realistic order book now dip below 300 which consist mostly of the larger variant.


Are you joking? The 777 is operated by so many airlines. The 777x doesn’t exit that envelope to nearly the extent that the a380 does. Aside from fixed cost and maintenance increases, it can be a very similar playbook. You’re acting like the 777w is falling out of style already when it absolutely isn’t. Airlines upsize routes all the time. People treat frequency like it doesn’t incur a whole addition gamut of per flight costs. Slots are expensive and they may not always be at the right time. Becomes a lot more complex when you look beyond daily vs twice daily.

A lot of orders are shaky right now. A lot of people want to swap on cancel anything. But the airlines who’ve ordered the 777x are probably anyone’s best bet to take aircraft. They at least are not going to lose money by canceling
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:53 am

Sjtstudios wrote:

Are you joking? The 777 is operated by so many airlines. The 777x doesn’t exit that envelope to nearly the extent that the a380 does. Aside from fixed cost and maintenance increases, it can be a very similar playbook. You’re acting like the 777w is falling out of style already when it absolutely isn’t. Airlines upsize routes all the time. People treat frequency like it doesn’t incur a whole addition gamut of per flight costs. Slots are expensive and they may not always be at the right time. Becomes a lot more complex when you look beyond daily vs twice daily.

A lot of orders are shaky right now. A lot of people want to swap on cancel anything. But the airlines who’ve ordered the 777x are probably anyone’s best bet to take aircraft. They at least are not going to lose money by canceling


Airlines upsize routes all the time? Highly debatable, I think that more airlines downsize than upsize, which is why the 747 was largely replaced by the 777, and the 777 is largely being replaced by the A350 and 787. You write off frequency increases, even though in most cases frequency is what the premium customers want, so they pay for the privilege (enough to cover the extra costs, even the cost of flying older aircraft).

Airlines don't have to lose much money if they cancel because they'd convert to the 787. Anyone's best bet to take aircraft? EY certainly wouldn't be, EK as discussed are thinking about downsizing the order in favour of 787s, CX are rumoured to be doing the same, and I think QR hasn't taken 787s from Boeing, might also defer A350s. That's pretty much half the customers on shaky grounds.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:30 am

Sjtstudios wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Faro wrote:


Admittedly 310 is better...and so is 610...but unless you are privy to the actual 777X R&D, testing and production cost figures, 309 being 'bad' is quite a wobbly proposition...


Faro


It's bad because of its specifications. 2 different aircraft which only few airlines could successfully operate. It's large, expensive, and have strong competitions from cheaper smaller more efficient B787 and A350 who could fly as far and even more.

Secondly, many of the orders are on the shaky ground, really shaky ground. The realistic order book now dip below 300 which consist mostly of the larger variant.


Are you joking? The 777 is operated by so many airlines. The 777x doesn’t exit that envelope to nearly the extent that the a380 does. Aside from fixed cost and maintenance increases, it can be a very similar playbook. You’re acting like the 777w is falling out of style already when it absolutely isn’t. Airlines upsize routes all the time. People treat frequency like it doesn’t incur a whole addition gamut of per flight costs. Slots are expensive and they may not always be at the right time. Becomes a lot more complex when you look beyond daily vs twice daily.

A lot of orders are shaky right now. A lot of people want to swap on cancel anything. But the airlines who’ve ordered the 777x are probably anyone’s best bet to take aircraft. They at least are not going to lose money by canceling


1. I actually suggested that B777-300ER is actually extremely popular and extremely efficient. Hence why many airlines didn't order B777X.
2. If you actually look the scheduling that many airlines do in congested airports like SYD, LHR, HND, etc. You could actually see that many routes operated by a single airlines are being operated by mixed of VLA and smaller widebodies. They didn't send all A380/B747/B777-300ER in the same routes. Most of the times they add lots of A330 and B787 into the mix.
3. They could prevent their money being lost by converting their order to other Boeing aircraft. B787 or even the MAX.
4. Converting to smaller aircraft is actually a better move to do rather than having lots of nearly empty flights during low-season on VLA.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:16 am

ewt340 wrote:
A lot of orders are shaky right now. A lot of people want to swap on cancel anything. But the airlines who’ve ordered the 777x are probably anyone’s best bet to take aircraft. They at least are not going to lose money by canceling

1. I actually suggested that B777-300ER is actually extremely popular and extremely efficient. Hence why many airlines didn't order B777X.
2. If you actually look the scheduling that many airlines do in congested airports like SYD, LHR, HND, etc. You could actually see that many routes operated by a single airlines are being operated by mixed of VLA and smaller widebodies. They didn't send all A380/B747/B777-300ER in the same routes. Most of the times they add lots of A330 and B787 into the mix.
3. They could prevent their money being lost by converting their order to other Boeing aircraft. B787 or even the MAX.
4. Converting to smaller aircraft is actually a better move to do rather than having lots of nearly empty flights during low-season on VLA.



Certainly COVID-19 makes for a 'challenging' sales environment...but then there is always the normal, secular risk of launching a new aircraft type and this is not specific to the 777X...the one problem I certainly do see with the 777X is the lack of a diversified client base...that is one thing...but it does not mean that over the secular span of the type's production life --ie, over the next 20-plus years-- aggregate demand from a diversified set of airlines will not materialise...it is impossible today to make that statement, COVID-19 or no COVID-19...

The original 741 was also big, expensive and had a relatively small client base until the -200B came along...and smaller, cheaper alternatives were available in the guise of the DC-10 and L1011...indeed initial 747 sales were so poor it almost brought down the company in the early 1970's (along with the cancellation of the SST)...but secular demand was there and ultimately supported the program throughout the next couple of decades...especially with the launch of the -200B variant and improvements to the JTD9 and the introduction of the CF6-50...

For an industrial program as massive and momentous as the 777X, it's all about the long-term, not the next 2 or 3 years...


Faro
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:42 am

I don't disagree. Just kinda unfortunate that Covid-19 has arrived just as the 777X is arriving in the market.

BA has now decided to permanently retire their 28 B744s. All their 12 A380s are parked. Could see them accelerate their 18 779s they have on order.

Then you have EK...they don't expect their first 779 until 2022 and have stated they will likely swap more to the 787.

So yes, an industrial program like the 777X is a long process. But if the EIS of 2022 holds true, 9 years will have elapsed since first sale
 
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Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:41 am

A330Inter wrote:
...
As I am not a crew and happy to hear if things are different on the flying side in terms of being lured in a debt trap. If you are referring to things outside of the airline environment I am not sure we can consider Emirates or any other airline liable for what their employees decide to do with their income, but this is just my view


I must be reading the gossip posted by the disgruntled crew on those rumor sites. Glad we have this forum to fact-check.

BTW, it is a state-owned airline owned by city-state with 1/3 GDP from airline and proudly receives dividends from the airline. Yes, everything and everyone in the city-state does is to benefit the airline.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:23 am

Scotron12 wrote:
I don't disagree. Just kinda unfortunate that Covid-19 has arrived just as the 777X is arriving in the market.

BA has now decided to permanently retire their 28 B744s. All their 12 A380s are parked. Could see them accelerate their 18 779s they have on order.

Then you have EK...they don't expect their first 779 until 2022 and have stated they will likely swap more to the 787.

So yes, an industrial program like the 777X is a long process. But if the EIS of 2022 holds true, 9 years will have elapsed since first sale


I think the opposite for BA, by keeping the delivery a bit further out in the future they won't need to worry about filling them up for a couple of extra years (when demand may be recovering?), it's not like they need the capacity now, if they did then they'd just use the 747s.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:50 am

MrHMSH wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
I don't disagree. Just kinda unfortunate that Covid-19 has arrived just as the 777X is arriving in the market.

BA has now decided to permanently retire their 28 B744s. All their 12 A380s are parked. Could see them accelerate their 18 779s they have on order.

Then you have EK...they don't expect their first 779 until 2022 and have stated they will likely swap more to the 787.

So yes, an industrial program like the 777X is a long process. But if the EIS of 2022 holds true, 9 years will have elapsed since first sale


I think the opposite for BA, by keeping the delivery a bit further out in the future they won't need to worry about filling them up for a couple of extra years (when demand may be recovering?), it's not like they need the capacity now, if they did then they'd just use the 747s.

Yes. The delivery for the -9 has been delayed by a year so from 22 to 23. The current 77Ws will be refurbished and repositioned to 747 routes. Especially JFK & JNB
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:53 pm

Much of the up-gauge has been to larger, much larger, versions of the smaller planes. 737/320 now challenge the 707. The famous 8 models of the 350, 330CEO, and 787 all seem to be failing or failed, as is the 777-8. A mantra: smaller planes get bigger, bigger planes get fewer. Hence the 777-9 will be a niche model.
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Emirates cancels SCL

Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:03 pm

Emirates has decided to end its flights to Santiago de Chile SCL, which operated 3x week with Boeing B777-type aircraft from Dubai with a stopover in Rio de Janeiro. Local staff has already been let go.

Emirates operated at SCL from July 2018 to March 2020.

https://torreeldorado.co/emirates-se-va-de-chile/
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:26 pm

To be clear, the entire route is being cancelled right? Not just the GIG-SCL segment?

Adam
 
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:47 pm

Maybe when they will have 787s this route might work again. The whole business model of EK and QR as copycat works in giving thousands of citypairs one stop connection. I actually expected them to roll out more secundairy cities so you could eventually fly Groningen-Mombasa or Olbia-Siem Reap with one stop, but now everything will change.
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:46 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
To be clear, the entire route is being cancelled right? Not just the GIG-SCL segment?

Adam


The DXB-GIG-SCL route was operated 3x w; the other days (4x w) DXB-GIG-EZE is operated and there have not been any announcements as to the termination of the latter. I doubt there will be a stand alone DXB-GIG service on the days EZE is not operating. EK struggled to make SCL work, initially it was an extension of a second daily GRU, which continued to SCL 4x w. That did not work out and the SCL leg was moved to GIG and reduced to 3x w.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:45 pm

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A lot of orders are shaky right now. A lot of people want to swap on cancel anything. But the airlines who’ve ordered the 777x are probably anyone’s best bet to take aircraft. They at least are not going to lose money by canceling

1. I actually suggested that B777-300ER is actually extremely popular and extremely efficient. Hence why many airlines didn't order B777X.
2. If you actually look the scheduling that many airlines do in congested airports like SYD, LHR, HND, etc. You could actually see that many routes operated by a single airlines are being operated by mixed of VLA and smaller widebodies. They didn't send all A380/B747/B777-300ER in the same routes. Most of the times they add lots of A330 and B787 into the mix.
3. They could prevent their money being lost by converting their order to other Boeing aircraft. B787 or even the MAX.
4. Converting to smaller aircraft is actually a better move to do rather than having lots of nearly empty flights during low-season on VLA.



Certainly COVID-19 makes for a 'challenging' sales environment...but then there is always the normal, secular risk of launching a new aircraft type and this is not specific to the 777X...the one problem I certainly do see with the 777X is the lack of a diversified client base...that is one thing...but it does not mean that over the secular span of the type's production life --ie, over the next 20-plus years-- aggregate demand from a diversified set of airlines will not materialise...it is impossible today to make that statement, COVID-19 or no COVID-19...

The original 741 was also big, expensive and had a relatively small client base until the -200B came along...and smaller, cheaper alternatives were available in the guise of the DC-10 and L1011...indeed initial 747 sales were so poor it almost brought down the company in the early 1970's (along with the cancellation of the SST)...but secular demand was there and ultimately supported the program throughout the next couple of decades...especially with the launch of the -200B variant and improvements to the JTD9 and the introduction of the CF6-50...

For an industrial program as massive and momentous as the 777X, it's all about the long-term, not the next 2 or 3 years...


Faro


Well, as for variants, B777X would be the equivalent to B747-8.

B777-200 is the equivalent of B747-100
B777-200ER is the equivalent of B747-200 (1st major success)
B777-300 is the equivalent of B747-300
B777-300ER is the equivalent of B747-400 (Last major success)

So, their best days are over already.

Many people actually forget that the first gen B777 is the same aircraft. B777X is just an updated version of those series. They are not a different aircraft type.
 
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Faro
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:28 am

ewt340 wrote:
Well, as for variants, B777X would be the equivalent to B747-8.

B777-200 is the equivalent of B747-100
B777-200ER is the equivalent of B747-200 (1st major success)
B777-300 is the equivalent of B747-300
B777-300ER is the equivalent of B747-400 (Last major success)

So, their best days are over already.

Many people actually forget that the first gen B777 is the same aircraft. B777X is just an updated version of those series. They are not a different aircraft type.




I shall not get into the semantics of what constitutes or not a "different" aircraft type...multiple A-net threads have already flogged this topic to a bloody pulp on multiple occasions...

Suffice it to say that...for whatever reason...an aircraft must sell to be successful...since the 1970's the main reason has been and remains low fuel consumption...

The 777X with its brand new wing and engines (plus 2 engines vs the 748's antiquated quad setup) has so far sold 309 units...more would be good, more would be nice, yes...but at this stage in the 777X program --COVID-19 notwithstanding-- 309 units sold is far from an irrevocable death sentence...

Big industrial programs like the 777X cover the long term...they would be striclty impossible to launch otherwise...


Faro
Last edited by Faro on Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:06 pm

The three: compete harder against Delta, United, and Southwest. Improve product, be price competitive. And obviously AS and B6 will continue to do some transcontinental service. AA serves 'flyover' country better than the two. Aim to be profitable. I don't think this requires any illegal conspiracy.

As a side note: I generally avoid dealing with any companies that have lost the ability to make a profit. Quality of service goes down, workers are 'on edge', and usually act it.
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:17 pm

EK's strategy is surely to reduce frequencies on routes with more than daily services. They've already announced the below for flights through March 2021, including reduction of BKK from 5x to 4x daily, and many routes from 2x to 1x daily. This is a logical move.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-18jul20/

However, pre-Covid they had operations to quite a few cities with less than daily service, which hints at the fact that they weren't particularly strong before. Same with tagged flights. LUN-HRE was daily, but tagged - this can't be an inexpensive operation; same with ACC-ABJ. CKY-DSS was 5x weekly and operated as a triangle. OPO was independent but less than daily and as a poster indicated above probably on the chopping block. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these stations disappear.
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:45 am

Faro wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Well, as for variants, B777X would be the equivalent to B747-8.

B777-200 is the equivalent of B747-100
B777-200ER is the equivalent of B747-200 (1st major success)
B777-300 is the equivalent of B747-300
B777-300ER is the equivalent of B747-400 (Last major success)

So, their best days are over already.

Many people actually forget that the first gen B777 is the same aircraft. B777X is just an updated version of those series. They are not a different aircraft type.




I shall not get into the semantics of what constitutes or not a "different" aircraft type...multiple A-net threads have already flogged this topic to a bloody pulp on multiple occasions...

Suffice it to say that...for whatever reason...an aircraft must sell to be successful...since the 1970's the main reason has been and remains low fuel consumption...

The 777X with its brand new wing and engines (plus 2 engines vs the 748's antiquated quad setup) has so far sold 309 units...more would be good, more would be nice, yes...but at this stage in the 777X program --COVID-19 notwithstanding-- 309 units sold is far from an irrevocable death sentence...

Big industrial programs like the 777X cover the long term...they would be striclty impossible to launch otherwise...


Faro


What I meant is the comparison for sales and success for each model series. While B777X have efficiency on its side, other major factor regarding its design are the main reason why it's not as successful as the first gen B777. Back when B777-200ER and B777-300ER were launch, there is no competition at all. A330-200 is too small, and A330-300 got around ~1,500nmi less range compared to both model. A340 are inefficient. B747 are too old and A380 is too big. B767 is too small and unsuitable for many long-haul routes.

Fast forward, we got B787 and A350 into the scenario and it paint a different picture for the widebody market. Both model effectively replace B777-200ER. It's not long until they do the same for B777-300ER in the future.

We als have to clarify that it doesn't sold 309 units since there were cancellations from Etihad. And conversion from some airlines.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:30 am

That 309 figure includes orders for the B778, which as of now is shelved.

EK have stated they may convert more 779s to the smaller 787. CX fleet decision will not be decided until later this year. So the 309 orders is looking quite fragile at the moment.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:21 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Much of the up-gauge has been to larger, much larger, versions of the smaller planes. 737/320 now challenge the 707. The famous 8 models of the 350, 330CEO, and 787 all seem to be failing or failed, as is the 777-8. A mantra: smaller planes get bigger, bigger planes get fewer. Hence the 777-9 will be a niche model.


Well, the 777-9 is a smaller plane that gets bigger. I think it will be a long term sucess.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:23 pm

DLHAM wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Much of the up-gauge has been to larger, much larger, versions of the smaller planes. 737/320 now challenge the 707. The famous 8 models of the 350, 330CEO, and 787 all seem to be failing or failed, as is the 777-8. A mantra: smaller planes get bigger, bigger planes get fewer. Hence the 777-9 will be a niche model.


Well, the 777-9 is a smaller plane that gets bigger. I think it will be a long term sucess.


LOL, you'r right, but as the biggest it will also get fewer. I think I concur with posters who make the case that re-engined 787/350s will make her redundant. But that will not happen as early as 2025, maybe 2030 - the virus makes many things different.
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:29 pm

The problem the 777X has is that the 787 has proved to very capable and fewer customers need the larger planes additional capacity and range compared to earlier generations of aircraft. There really is not anyway round this.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:06 pm

From the other bank of the stream, that is the thought - that the 777X needs time - to mature into a market that better needs it, I wonder how much time Boeing can afford to sit on the program.

What, if any, time additions to the program can be added - at lowest, or no, costs? (for an off-ball example, can the certification program be 'de-stressed' and elongated to better use a smaller number of aircraft? Lowered production rate?)

As this is not a clean-sheet design, the program's costs may well be lower than that of competing aircraft. If we were to lightly abandon the 'premium' of being at the top, and an A380 replacement - could discounting the aircraft in future - not only potentially increase sales, but also have a lesser comparative effect against the competitor's models in a price war? I am not suggesting that Airbus and Boeing should be slugging it out with every customer (thought that would be best for everyone involved), but to connect two thoughts;

Many of those 777 operators with their 777s needing replacement in the future - are going to have to decide between two options to truly replace their aircraft. If they do not operate a mixed fleet, the new type will require onboarding, and new crews. For some operators, there will be the parity of choice. In a lean new world where orders are likely to be top-ups here and there, and hunting for new big whale orders - how long can the 777X maintain a price premium? In that nexus of both time (production, and the ever slipping market of sale...) and aircraft - where do we project and believe the breakeven point to be?

If, as proposed, freight has been keeping airlines afloat - when passenger demand returns, it may well be more premium demand that determines longer routes (and lesser need for connecting hubs), and the benefit of greater cargo, with a decent price - that wins even 'smaller' orders. In future, reduce the discounts, and allow the 'top up' orders to come in at better pricing. Major fleet replacements are not going to be decided EK style anymore, EK's used market alone will not allow it. However, with a lower cost, there is lesser pressure on performance. A newer program can be adjusted now, during that time, to even better trim costs and improve for future. If they have the time, how to best use it?

To reconsider, as every airline is going to want to do now - could a price difference, along with greater capacity - encourage a carrier like QF to reconsider project Sunrise, in favor of Boeing - on a newly debuted time scale that allows better training and preparation of crews for a 777X timeline of debut?
 
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:53 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
From the other bank of the stream, that is the thought - that the 777X needs time - to mature into a market that better needs it, I wonder how much time Boeing can afford to sit on the program.

What, if any, time additions to the program can be added - at lowest, or no, costs? (for an off-ball example, can the certification program be 'de-stressed' and elongated to better use a smaller number of aircraft? Lowered production rate?)

As this is not a clean-sheet design, the program's costs may well be lower than that of competing aircraft. If we were to lightly abandon the 'premium' of being at the top, and an A380 replacement - could discounting the aircraft in future - not only potentially increase sales, but also have a lesser comparative effect against the competitor's models in a price war? I am not suggesting that Airbus and Boeing should be slugging it out with every customer (thought that would be best for everyone involved), but to connect two thoughts;

Many of those 777 operators with their 777s needing replacement in the future - are going to have to decide between two options to truly replace their aircraft. If they do not operate a mixed fleet, the new type will require onboarding, and new crews. For some operators, there will be the parity of choice. In a lean new world where orders are likely to be top-ups here and there, and hunting for new big whale orders - how long can the 777X maintain a price premium? In that nexus of both time (production, and the ever slipping market of sale...) and aircraft - where do we project and believe the breakeven point to be?

If, as proposed, freight has been keeping airlines afloat - when passenger demand returns, it may well be more premium demand that determines longer routes (and lesser need for connecting hubs), and the benefit of greater cargo, with a decent price - that wins even 'smaller' orders. In future, reduce the discounts, and allow the 'top up' orders to come in at better pricing. Major fleet replacements are not going to be decided EK style anymore, EK's used market alone will not allow it. However, with a lower cost, there is lesser pressure on performance. A newer program can be adjusted now, during that time, to even better trim costs and improve for future. If they have the time, how to best use it?

To reconsider, as every airline is going to want to do now - could a price difference, along with greater capacity - encourage a carrier like QF to reconsider project Sunrise, in favor of Boeing - on a newly debuted time scale that allows better training and preparation of crews for a 777X timeline of debut?


That's actually quite interesting point. I look at majority of B777 operators, and almost all of them currently operated B787. With some operating both B787 and A350 or just A350. Only Emirates currently didn't operate any B787.

So it seems like those extra cost for pilot training and maintenance became redundant. Many of these airlines would actually saves more money if they cut off B777 out of their fleet and use B787 and A350 fr replacement instead.

As for cargo (B777-8F). I don't see it happening soon. Mainly because there would be lots of second hand B777 on the market in upcoming years. So conversion would be a bigger market. And because current B777F is still in production and just like B777-300ER are still young and efficient.

So I don't see them keeping it afloat for 10 years unless the order book get picked up.

I also want to look at the possibility of enhancement on B787-10 range and payload capability in the future. Either through minor updates on through New Engine program. This would certainly be a final blow to B777X. I did remember Boeing working on B787-10 improvement when NZ announced that they are working together with Boeing to assure that B787-10 could fly the same mission as the B777-200ER.

If it happens, I see Airlines abandoning B777X and sticking with their B777-300ER instead.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:32 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Much of the up-gauge has been to larger, much larger, versions of the smaller planes. 737/320 now challenge the 707. The famous 8 models of the 350, 330CEO, and 787 all seem to be failing or failed, as is the 777-8. A mantra: smaller planes get bigger, bigger planes get fewer. Hence the 777-9 will be a niche model.


Well, the 777-9 is a smaller plane that gets bigger. I think it will be a long term sucess.


LOL, you'r right, but as the biggest it will also get fewer. I think I concur with posters who make the case that re-engined 787/350s will make her redundant. But that will not happen as early as 2025, maybe 2030 - the virus makes many things different.

RR already cut back UltraFan, had layoffs, and was facing financial calamity before CV-19 due to the T1000 problems. Also, they went big into the "power by the hour" world and now we don't have airplanes flying many hours. I don't see an urgency on their part to bring new product to the market for many years to come.

I think we can say similar things about GE mainly because of the woes of the corporate parent, but they haven't had the recent disastrous quality issues RR had with T1000 so don't have the same issue with regard to customer confidence. I doubt they have urgency on their part to bring new product to the market for many years to come.

Keep in mind both of these big players were suffering during the biggest aviation boom of our lifetimes, and now the bottom has truly fallen out.

GE9X may well be the only new wide body jet engine we see for all of the 2020s.
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smartplane
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Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Well, the 777-9 is a smaller plane that gets bigger. I think it will be a long term sucess.


LOL, you'r right, but as the biggest it will also get fewer. I think I concur with posters who make the case that re-engined 787/350s will make her redundant. But that will not happen as early as 2025, maybe 2030 - the virus makes many things different.

RR already cut back UltraFan, had layoffs, and was facing financial calamity before CV-19 due to the T1000 problems. Also, they went big into the "power by the hour" world and now we don't have airplanes flying many hours. I don't see an urgency on their part to bring new product to the market for many years to come.

I think we can say similar things about GE mainly because of the woes of the corporate parent, but they haven't had the recent disastrous quality issues RR had with T1000 so don't have the same issue with regard to customer confidence. I doubt they have urgency on their part to bring new product to the market for many years to come.

Keep in mind both of these big players were suffering during the biggest aviation boom of our lifetimes, and now the bottom has truly fallen out.

GE9X may well be the only new wide body jet engine we see for all of the 2020s.

RR have an advantage. A very high % of PBTH contracts, which fall into 2 groups - fixed term / fixed price and fixed term / floating price. The generic contract has a storage mode for engines still attached to air frames, and not in use.

For engines stored on air frames, the monthly charge drops, providing the operator follows the RR storage maintenance and inspection plan. There is a fee for de and re-activation. For engines not in use pre/post maintenance / overhaul, the contract term is unchanged, unless the operator changes the status.

On a fixed term (usually 10-14 years - if leased usually initial term plus X years) / fixed price contract the term extends for the period of non-use, or the customer can buyout the term. Fixed term / floating contracts are usually 2-3 years, with a specified number of re-priced (to be negotiated) rollovers.

RR have a disadvantage. The number of PBTH contracts in hibernation / variation mode due to 787 and A380 engine issues, where contract terms and conditions have been suspended.
 
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Re: Emirates cancels SCL

Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:58 pm

Just a reminder that this thread is about EK dropping SCL. This is not a general EK routes speculation and/or ME3 discussion. There are other more appropriate threads for that.

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