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Revelation
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Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:06 am

Interesting article at https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... is-signed/

The “phase one” trade deal signed by the U.S. and China Wednesday is expected to unblock an informal halt to Chinese orders for Boeing jets that had begun to affect the manufacturer’s long-term production plans, and it could lead to big orders in 2020 and 2021.

And:

The wording of the agreement requires China to import at least $32.9 billion more in U.S. manufactured goods than in 2017, after which trade was all but frozen. In 2021, the deal requires at least $44.8 billion more Chinese spending on manufactured goods than in 2017. The quickest way for China to rack up those big numbers is to order Boeing’s expensive aircraft.

Happy days are here again?

What kinds of orders should we expect?
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:16 am

The 787 production line had to decrease rate because of lack of orders from China that had been forecast. I expect a high likelihood for 787 orders.

Could China’s booming freighter market result in new build freighters Asia well?
 
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ER757
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:19 am

Maybe some 779's down the road a ways? With the growth in the Chinese aviation market, they're probably going to want the largest available aircraft as a people mover.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:30 am

My money would be on 787s and 777Fs.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:59 am

779 for transpac would seem to make a lot of sense. Air China alone still has 10 747’s.
 
x1234
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:12 am

777X would make sense for CA MU and CZ. I heard CA wants to fly PEK-PTY non-stop. The only flights from Latin America to Asia right now are AeroMexico's soon to be daily MEX-NRT & ICN at the edge of the 787's range. The AM flight is weight-restricted west-bound for the non-stop I hear. If HU was smart they're make their PEK-MEX flight non-stop instead of via TIJ.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:32 am

x1234 wrote:
777X would make sense for CA MU and CZ. I heard CA wants to fly PEK-PTY non-stop. The only flights from Latin America to Asia right now are AeroMexico's soon to be daily MEX-NRT & ICN at the edge of the 787's range. The AM flight is weight-restricted west-bound for the non-stop I hear. If HU was smart they're make their PEK-MEX flight non-stop instead of via TIJ.


Isn't HU ending the MEX flight, though?

Too bad the MAX is in such a mess, China can easily take 100s of those.
 
juliuswong
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:35 am

China will take everything available in the brochure: more 789/ 78J/ 778/779/772F 150 pieces int total. They still have plenty of older A330 to be replaced. (Not the sidetrack the thread but they will buy A339neo definitely too)
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RawSushi
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:00 am

If things go well for the Comac C919 program, a bunch of CFM engines for that plane might do the trick too.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:39 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
My money would be on 787s and 777Fs.


I wonder if they will order 767Fs
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:06 am

The purchases will likely include Boeings. I think a bit of everything except the 747. For regional routes the 787-10.

RawSushi wrote:
If things go well for the Comac C919 program, a bunch of CFM engines for that plane might do the trick too.

Too late for the years mentioned. We had a thread and it looks like a multi year delay due to miscalculation of wing loading (my opinion):
viewtopic.php?t=1438925

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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:27 am

The trade war is hardly over, just an easing up on it, and many of the tariffs stay in place. China seems to be mainly interested in buying agricultural products like pork as the swine fever led to millions of pigs had to be destroyed. I would put a stopper on high expectations in regards on a huge number of orders for Boeing aircraft.
No aircraft orders is a way to keep the pressure on the Trump government to clear out the rest of the tariffs. The Huawei situation is unresolved for an example.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:58 am

Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don’t see buying aircraft to meet the timeline requirements. The transaction compete on delivery not on order.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:06 am

RawSushi wrote:
If things go well for the Comac C919 program, a bunch of CFM engines for that plane might do the trick too.

Didn't they just said the program face a huge setback as they sent wrong numbers to CFM which results in both CFM engine design and their own aircraft design needs to be reworked?
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:12 am

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don’t see buying aircraft to meet the timeline requirements. The transaction compete on delivery not on order.

Aircraft (order AND delivery) is specifically one of the item in manufacturing purchase on the trade deal text.
https://www.flightglobal.com/us-china-t ... 66.article
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MileHFL400
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:17 am

Don’t think anyone should get too excited yet.

No one is ordering the MAX,

Chinese economy is slowing down.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:24 am

c933103 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don’t see buying aircraft to meet the timeline requirements. The transaction compete on delivery not on order.

Aircraft (order AND delivery) is specifically one of the item in manufacturing purchase on the trade deal text.
https://www.flightglobal.com/us-china-t ... 66.article


Yes, but than they count up the caveats.

and quote

The pact, effective immediately, calls for China to purchase a total of $200 billion in US goods above the 2017 baseline, and includes $77.7 million in manufactured goods. Of the eight categories listed under manufactured goods, one is for aircraft orders and deliveries. Two other categories are relevant to US aerospace sector: industrial machinery and electrical equipment and machinery.


If the 77.7 million in manufactured goods is not an error, what is it, one wide body? But I assume they mean 77.7 billion.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:32 am

Before anyone gets too excited there are no enforcement provisions in this agreement, and China hasn’t lived up to many of the previous provisions and agreements.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:40 am

SanDiegoLover wrote:
Before anyone gets too excited there are no enforcement provisions in this agreement, and China hasn’t lived up to many of the previous provisions and agreements.


I think they recognize at this point that they're gonna be held to account this time. Or they could cross their fingers and wait for the election, but it seems like they are no longer counting on that because they're making a deal in the 4th year of an administration.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:42 am

The FlightGlobal article, cites an analyst with: "the agreement is vague in regard to how much will go to aircraft, and that it’s not clear whether the document calls for firm orders or not"

If she is correct, this could mean a LOI for a huge number of Boeing aircraft, which never firms.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:44 am

I'm not sure this is going to happen in a hurry. There are too many unknowns. (Starting with the MAX...) And China holds the best cards here. Expect them to play their cards carefully.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:47 am

If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:28 am

c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220


Now that would be hilarious. I can imagine the tweet tsunami if that happened. :rotfl:
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:44 am

We were told back in 2017 that the Trade War would immediately result in a new glut of Boeing orders. We've been waiting a while....

c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220


That would be hilarious.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:47 am

ER757 wrote:
Maybe some 779's down the road a ways? With the growth in the Chinese aviation market, they're probably going to want the largest available aircraft as a people mover.


Wasn't the exact same argument used to 'prove' that China would be a big market for A380s and 747s? It seem to me the vast majority of Chinese growth has been in single-aisles and to a lesser degree, smaller widebodies.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:03 am

The first good news for Boeing in quite a while it seems. Now bring back deliveries please.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:06 am

c933103 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don’t see buying aircraft to meet the timeline requirements. The transaction compete on delivery not on order.

Aircraft (order AND delivery) is specifically one of the item in manufacturing purchase on the trade deal text.
https://www.flightglobal.com/us-china-t ... 66.article


When they mention the last order from China "was in 2017 for 300 aircraft". Are those orders been delivered since then? Obviously the MAX no, but whatever else was ordered at that time?
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:08 am

c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220

As well as A320s from Mobile...
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:33 am

Noshow wrote:
The first good news for Boeing in quite a while it seems. Now bring back deliveries please.

I expect it to happen in reverse order: first the start of deliveries and then a possible order (for the 737 and 777X that is).

People in China aren’t oblivious to the image of the ‘monster of Seattle’.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:29 am

I work for a company that supplies products to China using Chinese sourced raw materials. My former employer supplied raw materials to china which were turned into products exported to US. Both have been suffering, between them I would expect the business to account for $1 billion of that total. I think that Boeing will have to get inline, and without an available offer in the most requested category for now might not be able to fully benefit.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:34 pm

ER757 wrote:
Maybe some 779's down the road a ways? With the growth in the Chinese aviation market, they're probably going to want the largest available aircraft as a people mover.

They could have ordered more A380's to fill that need.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:46 pm

juliuswong wrote:
China will take everything available in the brochure: more 789/ 78J/ 778/779/772F 150 pieces int total. They still have plenty of older A330 to be replaced. (Not the sidetrack the thread but they will buy A339neo definitely too)

I agree.

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don't think these are 'manufactured goods'.

c933103 wrote:
RawSushi wrote:
If things go well for the Comac C919 program, a bunch of CFM engines for that plane might do the trick too.

Didn't they just said the program face a huge setback as they sent wrong numbers to CFM which results in both CFM engine design and their own aircraft design needs to be reworked?

Oy, that's a problem I didn't know about.

c933103 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?

I don’t see buying aircraft to meet the timeline requirements. The transaction compete on delivery not on order.

Aircraft (order AND delivery) is specifically one of the item in manufacturing purchase on the trade deal text.
https://www.flightglobal.com/us-china-t ... 66.article

Thanks for the correction.

MileHFL400 wrote:
Don’t think anyone should get too excited yet.

No one is ordering the MAX,

Chinese economy is slowing down.

Slowing down means growing less fast than before rather than shrinking.

Meanwhile aircraft are still aging and 777x and 787 are state of the art machines.

737 has its problems but once it has RTS still provides good value for money especially for those already operating the type.

mjoelnir wrote:
and quote

The pact, effective immediately, calls for China to purchase a total of $200 billion in US goods above the 2017 baseline, and includes $77.7 million in manufactured goods. Of the eight categories listed under manufactured goods, one is for aircraft orders and deliveries. Two other categories are relevant to US aerospace sector: industrial machinery and electrical equipment and machinery.


If the 77.7 million in manufactured goods is not an error, what is it, one wide body? But I assume they mean 77.7 billion.

Yes, they use 77.7 billion in the first paragraph so it seems to be an error.

Interesting that the digits are '77.7' though, maybe they were giving China a hint? :biggrin:

wjcandee wrote:
SanDiegoLover wrote:
Before anyone gets too excited there are no enforcement provisions in this agreement, and China hasn’t lived up to many of the previous provisions and agreements.


I think they recognize at this point that they're gonna be held to account this time. Or they could cross their fingers and wait for the election, but it seems like they are no longer counting on that because they're making a deal in the 4th year of an administration.

Sure, but the current state is zero orders since 2017 despite increased demand and aging fleets so any change should help both sides.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:13 pm

RawSushi wrote:
If things go well for the Comac C919 program, a bunch of CFM engines for that plane might do the trick too.


Narrator: They aren't going well

See the C919 threads on this forum.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:39 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
The 787 production line had to decrease rate because of lack of orders from China that had been forecast. I expect a high likelihood for 787 orders.

Could China’s booming freighter market result in new build freighters Asia well?


Boeing can blame China as much as they want, but if one looks at historical order data Boeing never sold enough 787s to keep the line running at 160 per year.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:05 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
The 787 production line had to decrease rate because of lack of orders from China that had been forecast. I expect a high likelihood for 787 orders.

Boeing can blame China as much as they want, but if one looks at historical order data Boeing never sold enough 787s to keep the line running at 160 per year.

It's no secret that the rate increase to 14 was done speculatively.

"Based on the existing campaigns... we're confirming now that we're going to 14-a-month production rate in 2019," Muilenburg said at the Morgan Stanley Industrials conference.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/programmes ... 77.article

This means they didn't have the orders in hand, but they projected they would. We now know that China has ordered no 787s since then. A fall back to 12 is not some big tragedy, especially given the trade tensions working against the increase to 14. Meanwhile the 787 had its best quarter in terms of delivery in the 4th quarter of 2019, bringing lots of positive cash flow at a time it is very much appreciated.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
737 has its problems but once it has RTS still provides good value for money especially for those already operating the type.


I'm sure more MAX orders will come from China. It shouldn't be forgotten that there are quite a few Chinese planes among the 400 undelivered MAXes.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:10 pm

PM wrote:
I'm not sure this is going to happen in a hurry. There are too many unknowns. (Starting with the MAX...) And China holds the best cards here. Expect them to play their cards carefully.

Agreed, China was first to ground the MAX, they will not order those for at least a year after the MAX is allowed to fly in China again.

Most likely the 787 and 777F will be the first Boeings China will order after the trade war, not more than 40 in total.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:52 pm

It seems like China likes to order in tranches of at least 300 Airplanes. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trum ... SKBN1D91BZ. Last time it was 260 737's and 40 Widebodies.

As it seems like they need a lot of Widebodies this time wouldn't be inconceivable that they order at least 100-150 Widebodies. Maybe 30 777x and say 20 777f, 80-100 787 seem like a good guess as any.

As Boeing will be handing out big RTS discounts to firm up the MAX production line in outer years and it seems like C919 won't be coming in big numbers anytime soon - they will need more SA capacity.

It is not inconceivable that they order 300+ MAX's.

From a headline perspective I'm sure they (and Trump) will use list prices to say - Look we are meeting our end of the deal - we just ordered $50B + of Boeings - Please drop the tariffs. Trump will be all over Twitter with it and I suspect it will happen before the election.

If Boeing does get MAX RTS this year it could be a very good year as they will most likely sell a lot more MAX's to others as well with big discounts as part of the grounding comp. Southwest still has to replace 500 737-700 and it would be a very opportune time to place a big order. The IAG order for 200 will probably Firm after RTS as well.

It's conceivable they could break 1,000 orders in 2020 which will help make up for 2019's terrible year.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:19 pm

morrisond wrote:
If Boeing does get MAX RTS this year it could be a very good year as they will most likely sell a lot more MAX's to others as well with big discounts as part of the grounding comp. Southwest still has to replace 500 737-700 and it would be a very opportune time to place a big order. The IAG order for 200 will probably Firm after RTS as well.

Yes, a lot depends on RTS in a reasonable time. Both Boeing and its customers need MAX to RTS. Yet of course there are a lot more hurdles yet to be cleared.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:51 pm

So the MAX order expectations range from zero to 300. It's clearly anyone's guess right now. Which is logical since we have never been in a similar situation.

For overall orders I would give a conservative estimate, especially when it comes to actual orders, not the usual large Chinese orders which can never be linked to actual new firm orders.

Considering that China hasnt ordered anything for the last 2 years there will be some actual orders. Especially widebodies as there are still plenty of MAX in the backlog that can be counted for a new possible big announcement.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:07 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220

As well as A320s from Mobile...

Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:09 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220

As well as A320s from Mobile...

Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.


Which cannot possibly handle all the A32X that China has ordered or will order. But this thread is about Boeing...
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airhansa
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:16 pm

How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:29 pm

airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

Actually a Chinese government entity buys imported aircraft and assigns them to each airline.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:48 pm

morrisond wrote:
As it seems like they need a lot of Widebodies this time wouldn't be inconceivable that they order at least 100-150 Widebodies. Maybe 30 777x and say 20 777f, 80-100 787 seem like a good guess as any.


China's biggest airline, Hainan Airlines, has canceled A350 and 787 orders. As a result Boeing has several 787 white tails sitting on the flightline.

What on earth are they going to do with more orders :confused:
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:04 pm

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What kinds of orders should we expect?


Wouldn’t buying oil, pork, and soya beans be the quickest and easiest thing to do ?


No, the agreement is for China to buy USD 200 billion of goods and services from US in 2020 and 2021, on top of the the 2017 amount of purchases China makes. The tricky part is that there is a breakdown of that USD 200 billion too in the agreement:
USD 32 billion of agriculture products - so there goes your pork and soy beans
USD 50 billion of energy - so there goes your oil (and probably a lot of LNG too)
USD 35 billion of service - this should not be difficult since China will open up the banking sector to US banks, insurance and brokerages, and also China does have a need for more services
USD 80 billion of industrial goods - this cannot be covered by your oil and soy beans, etc. The easiest way to cover this would be to buy machines (e.g. from Caterpillar), cars (from big-3 and Tesla) and airplanes. Boeing will for sure get a cut of this. Without Boeing, there is no way China can make up to that 80 billion.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:05 pm

airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

All companies in China are controlled by the Party regardless of ownership. Let's put it this way, if the Party tells you to do something, you don't dare to not do it. Unless you want to disappear the next day.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

Actually a Chinese government entity buys imported aircraft and assigns them to each airline.

That's happens with Airbus, with Boeing we see individual orders from the large Chinese airlines groups initially booked as unidentified, except for the orders by a the few fully private airlines in China that are directly identified. The orders will still need to be approved by the government before they can be firmed and then also before delivery.

China is used here more as a umbrella term for any Chinese airline since the government approval is needed and because they are almost used as part of national trade deals.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:12 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
morrisond wrote:
As it seems like they need a lot of Widebodies this time wouldn't be inconceivable that they order at least 100-150 Widebodies. Maybe 30 777x and say 20 777f, 80-100 787 seem like a good guess as any.


China's biggest airline, Hainan Airlines, has canceled A350 and 787 orders. As a result Boeing has several 787 white tails sitting on the flightline.

What on earth are they going to do with more orders :confused:

Hainan is only one airline and is certainly not the biggest one, it's actually the 4th behind the state owned China Southern, China Eastern and Air China. And the issues with Hainan have much more to do with the financial misadventures of it's parent, the HNA Group, in all different kind of markets.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:14 pm

raylee67 wrote:
cars (from big-3 and Tesla) and airplanes.

TSLA just rolled out the first car from its Chinese factory, seems US imports will not be a big factor.
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