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Scotron12
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:20 pm

A lot of 737MAX were part of that last order in 2017 which haven't been delivered yet.

How the numbers would add up if the MAX is not allowed to fly again would not be good for either China or Boeing.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:21 pm

JoergAtADN wrote:
The FlightGlobal article, cites an analyst with: "the agreement is vague in regard to how much will go to aircraft, and that it’s not clear whether the document calls for firm orders or not"

If she is correct, this could mean a LOI for a huge number of Boeing aircraft, which never firms.


Do we need to explain the verb to buy to you?

Merriam-Webster to the rescue.

buy verb
\ ˈbī \
bought\ ˈbȯt \; buying
Definition of buy (Entry 1 of 2)
transitive verb

1: to acquire possession, ownership, or rights to the use or services of by payment especially of money : PURCHASE
buy a car
buying stock in the company
bought us dinner

Ordering is not buying. Signing an LOI is not buying. Paying and taking delivery - that's buying.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:30 pm

Will make everybody proud!
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:50 pm

Noshow wrote:
The first good news for Boeing in quite a while it seems. Now bring back deliveries please.


When the Max is allowed to fly again, the delivery center will be as busy as a one-legged man at a butt kicking contest.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:00 pm

I don't know about significant potential in Boeing orders quite frankly.

China is living an EV boom and Tesla now barely opened their Shanghai factory for Model 3.
At 50.000 USD a pop, it takes 20.000 Tesla's per billion USD in industrial goods which is nothing considering current EV sales figures.

I would expect Chinese to order EV's rather than aircraft.

Also, about the MAX, the delays and production suspension are already delaying the delivery of the existing backlog, so delivery positions are vanishing not being created.

If there is an order, it would be for B787's.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
As well as A320s from Mobile...

Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.


Which cannot possibly handle all the A32X that China has ordered or will order. But this thread is about Boeing...


It isn't really. It's about the potential outcomes as a result of the trade agreement, with a conjecture that Boeing could benefit.

The A220's and A320's from Mobile made me chuckle.
Maybe they could re-route Tianjin built A320's for export from China :)
(Not to the US of course).

Will be interesting to see what the outcome is

Rgds
 
mileduets
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
JoergAtADN wrote:
The FlightGlobal article, cites an analyst with: "the agreement is vague in regard to how much will go to aircraft, and that it’s not clear whether the document calls for firm orders or not"

If she is correct, this could mean a LOI for a huge number of Boeing aircraft, which never firms.


Do we need to explain the verb to buy to you?

Merriam-Webster to the rescue.

buy verb
\ ˈbī \
bought\ ˈbȯt \; buying
Definition of buy (Entry 1 of 2)
transitive verb

1: to acquire possession, ownership, or rights to the use or services of by payment especially of money : PURCHASE
buy a car
buying stock in the company
bought us dinner

Ordering is not buying. Signing an LOI is not buying. Paying and taking delivery - that's buying.


I'm pretty sure in this case firm orders count and not deliveries, else all undelivered MAXs would count towards the $ 80 billion goal already.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:19 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
China's biggest airline, Hainan Airlines, has canceled A350 and 787 orders. As a result Boeing has several 787 white tails sitting on the flightline.

What on earth are they going to do with more orders :confused:


You keep saying this, but never offering any evidence to support the claim that China doesn't need more planes. The key point here is Hainan Airlines, which is certainly at best the 4th largest Chinese airline (although the group may be somewhat larger), is a privately run entity that has massively overexpanded and is in deep financial difficulties, whereas the three main Chinese carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) are government run.

In addition, Chinese airlines took delivery of over 30 Airbus planes in December alone and very nearly a quarter of the 400 undelivered MAX are destined for Chinese airlines. It's also very likely that China is behind the order for 40 A330neo booked by Airbus in December. The struggles of one private airline should not be used as an indication that China can't, and won't take more planes.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Maybe some 779's down the road a ways? With the growth in the Chinese aviation market, they're probably going to want the largest available aircraft as a people mover.


Wasn't the exact same argument used to 'prove' that China would be a big market for A380s and 747s? It seem to me the vast majority of Chinese growth has been in single-aisles and to a lesser degree, smaller widebodies.


China has many 787's and 777-300ER's. The 777-9X makes sens for many people here...

Maybe the NMA and the FSA back in the table also...

The US-China dispute had cooled Boeing for the launch I think...
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WayexTDI
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:01 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Maybe some 779's down the road a ways? With the growth in the Chinese aviation market, they're probably going to want the largest available aircraft as a people mover.


Wasn't the exact same argument used to 'prove' that China would be a big market for A380s and 747s? It seem to me the vast majority of Chinese growth has been in single-aisles and to a lesser degree, smaller widebodies.


China has many 787's and 777-300ER's. The 777-9X makes sens for many people here...

Maybe the NMA and the FSA back in the table also...

The US-China dispute had cooled Boeing for the launch I think...

777-9, part of the 777X Family; there is no 777-9X.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:44 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
China has many 787's and 777-300ER's. The 777-9X makes sens for many people here...


Chinese airlines operate a total of 63 77W:
    Air China - 28
    China Eastern - 20
    China Southern - 15

To put those numbers in perspective, the following airlines operate as many or more 77W than Air China:
    All Nippon
    Turkish
    EVA
    Saudia
    Air France
    Qatar
    Cathay Pacific
    and of course, Emirates

American, Korean and Singapore also operate as many or more 77W than China Eastern (but less than Air China).
Air India, Air Canada, Aeroflot, Etihad and United also operate as many or more 77W than China Southern.

When put in perspective, the 77W fleets of CS3 are not especially large.

Meanwhile, chinese airlines operate/have on order the following smaller passenger widebodies:
A330 - 216
A350 - 80
77E - 63
787 - 109 (includes all of Hainan's orders, some of which were NTU and/or cancelled)

I believe this supports my view that the vast bulk of Chinese aviation growth is driven by the explosion in single-aisle planes. This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China. China's fleet of large widebodies (77W, 744, 748 and A380) is relatively small compared to its very large fleet of smaller widebodies.
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:05 am

scbriml wrote:
In addition, Chinese airlines took delivery of over 30 Airbus planes in December alone and very nearly a quarter of the 400 undelivered MAX are destined for Chinese airlines. It's also very likely that China is behind the order for 40 A330neo booked by Airbus in December. The struggles of one private airline should not be used as an indication that China can't, and won't take more planes.


I was talking about widebody aircraft, hence I only mentioned the 787 and A350. December with 30 deliveries sounds nice but are mainly narrowbody aircraft, which was not my point.

My point was, some people seem to believe that China will order so many 787s that Boeing will have to increase production again. All I'm saying is it probably won't happen for reasons. As you said in your post above, China doesn't have that many widebody aircraft at all. And it cannot absorb so many widebody aircraft as people may think.
Good moaning!
 
musman9853
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:06 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't know about significant potential in Boeing orders quite frankly.

China is living an EV boom and Tesla now barely opened their Shanghai factory for Model 3.
At 50.000 USD a pop, it takes 20.000 Tesla's per billion USD in industrial goods which is nothing considering current EV sales figures.

I would expect Chinese to order EV's rather than aircraft.

Also, about the MAX, the delays and production suspension are already delaying the delivery of the existing backlog, so delivery positions are vanishing not being created.

If there is an order, it would be for B787's.



https://articles2.marketrealist.com/201 ... akes/#aprd

chinas ev sales have cratered these last few months. doubt those imported evs, tiny amount as they are, make much of a dent in the 80b in goods china needs to buy
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:11 am

scbriml wrote:
I'm sure more MAX orders will come from China. It shouldn't be forgotten that there are quite a few Chinese planes among the 400 undelivered MAXes.


There is also the Chinese 737 Completion Center that I expect the central government will want to keep operating beyond the current tranche of orders.

airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

Revelation wrote:
Actually a Chinese government entity buys imported aircraft and assigns them to each airline.

Momo1435 wrote:
That's happens with Airbus, with Boeing we see individual orders from the large Chinese airlines groups initially booked as unidentified, except for the orders by a the few fully private airlines in China that are directly identified. The orders will still need to be approved by the government before they can be firmed and then also before delivery. China is used here more as a umbrella term for any Chinese airline since the government approval is needed and because they are almost used as part of national trade deals.


China Aviation Supplies Holding Company (CASC) is the agency that formally orders Airbus and Boeing commercial aircraft and then "assigns" them out to the various Chinese flagged carriers.


Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't know about significant potential in Boeing orders quite frankly. At 50.000 USD a pop, it takes 20.000 Tesla's per billion USD in industrial goods which is nothing considering current EV sales figures. I would expect Chinese to order EV's rather than aircraft.


Well since Tesla cut the price of the Model 3 by 16%, sales are improving, but commercial aircraft purchases are still a major way the Chinese government addresses their Balance of Trade with the US and EU. It is also a way for them to show approval or disapproval about the foreign policies of the US and EU as they apply to or impact China.
 
sincx
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:12 am

scbriml wrote:
I believe this supports my view that the vast bulk of Chinese aviation growth is driven by the explosion in single-aisle planes. This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China. China's fleet of large widebodies (77W, 744, 748 and A380) is relatively small compared to its very large fleet of smaller widebodies.


This is probably about right.

The China aviation market is in some respects similar to the US aviation market in that there are multiple (3 or more) major hubs and multiple (3 or more) major airlines. The resulting fragmentation means smaller aircraft makes more sense. Of course, "smaller" in China might mean A330s instead of A320s/737s as in the US, but the point remains--VLAs are better suited for single-hub airlines with at most 1 competitor, e.g.:
scbriml wrote:
All Nippon
Turkish
EVA
Saudia
Air France
Qatar
Cathay Pacific
and of course, Emirates
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:16 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
My point was, some people seem to believe that China will order so many 787s that Boeing will have to increase production again. All I'm saying is it probably won't happen for reasons. As you said in your post above, China doesn't have that many widebody aircraft at all. And it cannot absorb so many widebody aircraft as people may think.


Again, you're basing this on the poor performance of Hainan. I'm sure Chinese airlines will order many more 787s (as well as A330s and A350s and possibly 77Xs).

China does have a lot of widebodies - over 450 smaller ones (delivered or on order)! What it doesn't have, is lots of large widebodies, which was my point.
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zeke
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:05 am

raylee67 wrote:
No, the agreement is for China to buy USD 200 billion of goods and services from US in 2020 and 2021, on top of the the 2017 amount of purchases China makes. The tricky part is that there is a breakdown of that USD 200 billion too in the agreement:
USD 32 billion of agriculture products - so there goes your pork and soy beans
USD 50 billion of energy - so there goes your oil (and probably a lot of LNG too)
USD 35 billion of service - this should not be difficult since China will open up the banking sector to US banks, insurance and brokerages, and also China does have a need for more services
USD 80 billion of industrial goods - this cannot be covered by your oil and soy beans, etc. The easiest way to cover this would be to buy machines (e.g. from Caterpillar), cars (from big-3 and Tesla) and airplanes. Boeing will for sure get a cut of this. Without Boeing, there is no way China can make up to that 80 billion.


I have read the breakdown on other news services, first I have seen “industrial goods”. I don’t see US banks getting much of a foothold in China, not would I think they will want to given some of the loans the government may direct the to give to state companies. I think that has more of a chance for credit cards (Mater, Visa, and Amex which just got the licenses recently) and fund managers.

As for agriculture and energy, I saw them as being the raw materials, processed versions of them I saw as manufactured goods.

Correct me if I am wrong, buying Boeing does little for the balance of payments as the majority of each airframe is made outside of the US. Airbus to the best of my knowledge of the biggest export customer of the US aerospace sector with over 50% by value of each airframe coming from the US.
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foxtrotbravo21
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:54 am

Believed if China does order from Beoing from this year, it will be a very modest orders only. This is because after this 2 year episode of Trump levying and threatening more tariffs have taught the Chinese to be very careful and in some ways like many other countries do not trust the US and esp Trump administration, as trump can unilaterally cancel the deal over his more personal interests. China will wait till end of the year and see if Trump gets re-elected or not before China will decide on any big orders from Boeing.
 
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:33 am

airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

Many significant Chinese companies are wholly or partially owned by national or provincial government or government-controlled institutions, like most carriers in China. They make purchase decisions.
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:38 am

FlyHPN wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If anything they can also order a brunch of American made A220

As well as A320s from Mobile...

Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.

They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia while taking Mobile-made planes themselves just to balance the numbers on paper
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Antaras
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:30 am

c933103 wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia

In Vietnam, there used to be a boycott in Vietjet when there was a fake rumor that Vietjet will receive some Chinese-built A320/A321 (in other words, TSN-built airframe) because everyone 'didn't trust in Chinese quality'
I don't think that there will be 100% carrier in Asia who ready (and want) to receive TSN-built airframes.
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c933103
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:52 am

Antaras wrote:
c933103 wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia

In Vietnam, there used to be a boycott in Vietjet when there was a fake rumor that Vietjet will receive some Chinese-built A320/A321 (in other words, TSN-built airframe) because everyone 'didn't trust in Chinese quality'
I don't think that there will be 100% carrier in Asia who ready (and want) to receive TSN-built airframes.

Like those who said customers won't be able to realize the different between 737Max and other planes, it will be even more difficult for end customers to distinguish which frames are built in China. Sure it is possible for customers to boycott entire airlines because of it, however there aren't that many country in Asia where there are sufficient mass of population that would be willing to make such step.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:24 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
China has many 787's and 777-300ER's. The 777-9X makes sens for many people here...


Chinese airlines operate a total of 63 77W:
    Air China - 28
    China Eastern - 20
    China Southern - 15

To put those numbers in perspective, the following airlines operate as many or more 77W than Air China:
    All Nippon
    Turkish
    EVA
    Saudia
    Air France
    Qatar
    Cathay Pacific
    and of course, Emirates

American, Korean and Singapore also operate as many or more 77W than China Eastern (but less than Air China).
Air India, Air Canada, Aeroflot, Etihad and United also operate as many or more 77W than China Southern.

When put in perspective, the 77W fleets of CS3 are not especially large.

Meanwhile, chinese airlines operate/have on order the following smaller passenger widebodies:
A330 - 216
A350 - 80
77E - 63
787 - 109 (includes all of Hainan's orders, some of which were NTU and/or cancelled)

I believe this supports my view that the vast bulk of Chinese aviation growth is driven by the explosion in single-aisle planes. This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China. China's fleet of large widebodies (77W, 744, 748 and A380) is relatively small compared to its very large fleet of smaller widebodies.


Interesting ...

Evidence by facts and figures!

But what becomes of the prospect of an NMA in this region? I do not remember that YOU supported this idea.
You rather agreed with those who think that Boeing failed to close their business case, and that it will NEVER do it, right?

Boeing by the voice of R. Tinseth had always evoked the importance of what would be the NMA in China and consequently throughout the world ...


scbriml wrote:
"This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China"


Now, what is YOUR point today concerning the NMA which is a smaller widebody in China among others ? :)
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Do it! "...
 
airhansa
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:28 am

raylee67 wrote:
airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

All companies in China are controlled by the Party regardless of ownership. Let's put it this way, if the Party tells you to do something, you don't dare to not do it. Unless you want to disappear the next day.


This isn't 100% true. The CCP has a stake in the majority of major companies but only controls a minority (albeit a sizable amount of them). It has no direct control over small companies usually beyond regulation.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:05 am

Many of the international routes from/to china are subsidized by the Chinese Government, hence the extremely low ticket prices. They are losing billions of dollars annually. They are more likely to buy more B787 rather than B777X for better frequency and lower fuel consumptions. Also, many of their B777-300ER are extremely young. And since B777X backlog isn't that big at the moment, there is no incentive to actually ordered it. It's not like they are retiring their young B747-8i or A380 anytime soon.

The other big orders would come for MAX. But the grounding doesn't really help them at the moment.
 
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c933103
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:11 am

airhansa wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
airhansa wrote:
How does China or the US "buy" more manufactured goods? It's all up to private individuals to buy surely?

All companies in China are controlled by the Party regardless of ownership. Let's put it this way, if the Party tells you to do something, you don't dare to not do it. Unless you want to disappear the next day.


This isn't 100% true. The CCP has a stake in the majority of major companies but only controls a minority (albeit a sizable amount of them). It has no direct control over small companies usually beyond regulation.

It depends on how you interpret the word "control". Normally speaking what you said is correct. However many Chinese companies also have party representative and organizations in their board and have a critical role in decision making process. And even for smaller companies that doesn't have those, it would be rather easy for their local government to kindly request them to do various actions which would be difficult for them to deny.
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:40 am

Checklist787 wrote:
But what becomes of the prospect of an NMA in this region? I do not remember that YOU supported this idea.
You rather agreed with those who think that Boeing failed to close their business case, and that it will NEVER do it, right?

scbriml wrote:
"This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China"


Now, what is YOUR point today concerning the NMA which is a smaller widebody in China among others ? :)


NMA's prospects in China are the same as everywhere else - airlines can't buy a plane that isn't for sale. ;)

In response to people claiming NMA was ready to launch in Oct 2018, I pointed to two senior Boeing execs who said eight months later that the business case still wasn't closed. Nobody at Boeing has ever said the business case is closed. I certainly haven't said Boeing will never close the business case or launch it. However, I think the chances of Boeing launching NMA are shrinking rather than growing.

China buying NMA? Sure, but first it has to be for sale.
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FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:05 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
But what becomes of the prospect of an NMA in this region? I do not remember that YOU supported this idea.
You rather agreed with those who think that Boeing failed to close their business case, and that it will NEVER do it, right?

scbriml wrote:
"This growth is also supported by the use of smaller widebodies. Many suspect the recent order for 40 A330neo is destined for China"


Now, what is YOUR point today concerning the NMA which is a smaller widebody in China among others ? :)


NMA's prospects in China are the same as everywhere else - airlines can't buy a plane that isn't for sale. ;)

In response to people claiming NMA was ready to launch in Oct 2018, I pointed to two senior Boeing execs who said eight months later that the business case still wasn't closed. Nobody at Boeing has ever said the business case is closed. I certainly haven't said Boeing will never close the business case or launch it. However, I think the chances of Boeing launching NMA are shrinking rather than growing.

China buying NMA? Sure, but first it has to be for sale.



Was it not also mentioned that China likes cargo capacity on their aircraft?

On one hand we have the Chinese market that probably wants a circular tube with increased cargo capacity on the NMA, while the TATL, EU and US transcon market would work best with an aircraft optimized for passenger only. So there we have a problem. The oval thing would probably have problems in China if they really need the cargo capacity. Then buying the 787 or 330 is the better option for them.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:29 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I don't know about significant potential in Boeing orders quite frankly.

China is living an EV boom and Tesla now barely opened their Shanghai factory for Model 3.
At 50.000 USD a pop, it takes 20.000 Tesla's per billion USD in industrial goods which is nothing considering current EV sales figures.

I would expect Chinese to order EV's rather than aircraft.

Also, about the MAX, the delays and production suspension are already delaying the delivery of the existing backlog, so delivery positions are vanishing not being created.

If there is an order, it would be for B787's.



https://articles2.marketrealist.com/201 ... akes/#aprd

chinas ev sales have cratered these last few months. doubt those imported evs, tiny amount as they are, make much of a dent in the 80b in goods china needs to buy


There is a lot of lament from the US manufacturers. Overall auto sales are going up:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics ... china_2019

Brands: US, French cars are going down, Japan++ and Germany+
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales
Murphy is an optimist
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1905
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:03 pm

A political ploy that may result in extra orders for Boeing. We will have to see if other countries sees the deal as fair and take a case to the WTO. Seeing that the US has crippled the appellate body at the WTO by not nominating people to serve, the result surely has to be to take the US approach, tariffs as you see fit if there is no recognized dispute resolution. All this for positive stories before November for Trump.
 
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PepeTheFrog
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
My point was, some people seem to believe that China will order so many 787s that Boeing will have to increase production again. All I'm saying is it probably won't happen for reasons. As you said in your post above, China doesn't have that many widebody aircraft at all. And it cannot absorb so many widebody aircraft as people may think.


Again, you're basing this on the poor performance of Hainan. I'm sure Chinese airlines will order many more 787s (as well as A330s and A350s and possibly 77Xs).


Well, that was not my point either. I'm not saying there won't by any new orders. I'm saying there won't be enough orders to increase production. Because that's what some people have been saying.

Since program launch, Boeing on average sells around 90 787s annually.

To continue building at rate 14, it needs 70 additional sales each year.

So my point was, I cannot see China ordering 70 additional 787s each year so Boeing can again increase production. Even rate 12 will be difficult to maintain.
Good moaning!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:37 pm

A peculiarity is the US moving to controlled trade. China (and others) will buy this, we will only allow that. There is little evidence that controlled trade will lead to as much prosperity as the US did with largely free trade. The WTO is sidelined now with no US appointees, there are not as I understand, enough commissioners(?) to provide a voting quorum. Seldom before has the White House controlled trade to the degree to which the White House now intends. Government making the decisions on who and how trade will be conducted is Socialism. It is simply a question of what kind of socialism.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:35 pm

c933103 wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Asiaflyer wrote:
As well as A320s from Mobile...

Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.

They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia while taking Mobile-made planes themselves just to balance the numbers on paper


US-built A220 and A320 to China are indeed an elegant solution. Especially now, when US sanctions against A220 from Canada are off the table.

Regarding exporting A320's from China -- weren't there already some Tianjin-built Airbuses, flying for non-Chinese airlines?
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Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:33 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
c933103 wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Highly unlikely since there is an A320 family FAL in China.

They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia while taking Mobile-made planes themselves just to balance the numbers on paper


US-built A220 and A320 to China are indeed an elegant solution. Especially now, when US sanctions against A220 from Canada are off the table.

Regarding exporting A320's from China -- weren't there already some Tianjin-built Airbuses, flying for non-Chinese airlines?


Aren’t all the Mobile built planes going to US airlines today and it’s still not enough to handle the demand? Depending on how the US-EU tariff situation plays out, it’s going to be hard for the US government to convince Airbus to convince US airlines to take aircraft from Toulouse or Hamburg that are going to cost them more so they can export them to China.
 
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Phosphorus
Posts: 1034
Joined: Tue May 16, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:29 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
c933103 wrote:
They can send Tianjin-made planes to rest of Asia while taking Mobile-made planes themselves just to balance the numbers on paper


US-built A220 and A320 to China are indeed an elegant solution. Especially now, when US sanctions against A220 from Canada are off the table.

Regarding exporting A320's from China -- weren't there already some Tianjin-built Airbuses, flying for non-Chinese airlines?


Aren’t all the Mobile built planes going to US airlines today and it’s still not enough to handle the demand? Depending on how the US-EU tariff situation plays out, it’s going to be hard for the US government to convince Airbus to convince US airlines to take aircraft from Toulouse or Hamburg that are going to cost them more so they can export them to China.


I didn't realize Airbus offered discounts to US-based airlines for US-made airplanes. Is it indeed the case?

Or you mean the situation, when the US "pushes the button", and applies sanctions against Airbus-EU?
If that happens, I could well see Airbus selling (some) Tainjin-built planes in the US -- to avoid anti-EU tariffs; while (some) Mobile-built planes could end up sold in China (to help China with their promise to buy some American planes).
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 116
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: Boeing orders from China could resume now that trade deal is signed

Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:39 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

US-built A220 and A320 to China are indeed an elegant solution. Especially now, when US sanctions against A220 from Canada are off the table.

Regarding exporting A320's from China -- weren't there already some Tianjin-built Airbuses, flying for non-Chinese airlines?


Aren’t all the Mobile built planes going to US airlines today and it’s still not enough to handle the demand? Depending on how the US-EU tariff situation plays out, it’s going to be hard for the US government to convince Airbus to convince US airlines to take aircraft from Toulouse or Hamburg that are going to cost them more so they can export them to China.


I didn't realize Airbus offered discounts to US-based airlines for US-made airplanes. Is it indeed the case?

Or you mean the situation, when the US "pushes the button", and applies sanctions against Airbus-EU?
If that happens, I could well see Airbus selling (some) Tainjin-built planes in the US -- to avoid anti-EU tariffs; while (some) Mobile-built planes could end up sold in China (to help China with their promise to buy some American planes).


I mean the increase in cost if tariffs are applied, hence why I explicitly called them out.

Selling Tianjin planes to US carriers just so they could export planes to China seems like a questionable strategy since it would further increase US imports from China. Plus, what’s in all this added complication for Airbus?

Is it possible? Sure. Likely? I think not. Believe what you wish, but I’m not buying it.

Let’s get back to talking about Boeing!

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