Ryan877
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What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:53 pm

Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?
 
Ishrion
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:58 pm

Ryan877 wrote:
A321 would both be too heavy


Is the A321 too heavy because of the range? Because AA used to operate the A321 on PHX-SNA.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:01 am

They have used the 73G on SNA-ATL. AA uses the 738 on SNA-DFW. Delta could just get rid of DTW-SNA since it's been stopped and started more times than I can remember and just move that SNA slot to ATL and use all 738 on SNA-ATL. The additional frequency would make up for the drop in equipment size.
 
Babyshark
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:08 am

Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?


A lot of things.

Doesn't United use a 737 for SNA-EWR?

We use the 319 on it to MSP and it's about 400 miles shorter than ATL but it's not stressed at all to do it. We could probably use the 320 on it and I wouldn't be surprised if the 321 does it just fine. We don't mix and match like we once did, certain aircraft mostly stay to certain stations.
 
ericm2031
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:36 am

Babyshark wrote:
Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?


A lot of things.

Doesn't United use a 737 for SNA-EWR?

We use the 319 on it to MSP and it's about 400 miles shorter than ATL but it's not stressed at all to do it. We could probably use the 320 on it and I wouldn't be surprised if the 321 does it just fine. We don't mix and match like we once did, certain aircraft mostly stay to certain stations.


Yes, UA uses 737-700s on the route but that would be a big downgauge in size and DL only has 10. I think the OP was wondering if there is an option that doesn’t involve downgauging.

Also, the problem isn’t the length of the flight, it’s the length of the runway. I’m surprised SNA-MSP doesn’t bump into some issues with the runway length on the 319 because I’ve seen it weight restricted on shorter flights with longer runways than SNA.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:36 am

Why not a 330
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:37 am

Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?

You might look at the age of Delta's youngest 757-200s. There is no urgency.
 
gregn21
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:40 am

Thunderbolt500 wrote:
Why not a 330


Hmmm . . . seems legit
 
1989worstyear
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:13 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?

You might look at the age of Delta's youngest 757-200s. There is no urgency.


Maybe they should stick the grunge era A320's on the route LMAO...

Perception is all that matters.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
MrBretz
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:31 am

FedEx is retiring their A300’s. Maybe Delta could buy those and ship passengers in boxes? The A300 still flies into SNA the last time I looked. On a more serious note, someone could look at some performance charts and tell us if the A320 or 737 whatever could make the distance with a 5000’ runway.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:38 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
They have used the 73G on SNA-ATL. AA uses the 738 on SNA-DFW. Delta could just get rid of DTW-SNA since it's been stopped and started more times than I can remember and just move that SNA slot to ATL and use all 738 on SNA-ATL. The additional frequency would make up for the drop in equipment size.


You must have a short memory. DL dropped DTW/SNA only once (during the Great Recession, after "moving" the flight from CVG and operating it as a redeye), and has continually operated it since resuming service nearly three years ago. Average fares are sold and load factors are very high. DL upgauged the flight to a 757 from the 73G, and has kept service even as it lost slots at SNA two years in a row.

There's a lot of routes that were dropped from ATL, MSP and SLC during the Great Recession that have since resumed. I'm uncertain to why this one is constantly singled out (especially given its prior poor timings)...
Last edited by WidebodyPTV on Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:40 am

Would a NEO be too far fetched?
@DadCelo
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:43 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
They have used the 73G on SNA-ATL. AA uses the 738 on SNA-DFW. Delta could just get rid of DTW-SNA since it's been stopped and started more times than I can remember and just move that SNA slot to ATL and use all 738 on SNA-ATL. The additional frequency would make up for the drop in equipment size.


You must have a short memory. DL dropped DTW/SNA only once (during the Great Recession, after "moving" the flight from CVG and operating it as a redeye), and has continually operated it since resuming service nearly three years ago. Average fares are sold and load factors are very high. DL upgauged the flight to a 757 from the 73G, and has kept service even as it lost slots at SNA two years in a row.

There's a lot of routes that were dropped from ATL, MSP and SLC during the Great Recession that have since resumed. I'm uncertain to why this one is constantly singled out (especially given its prior poor timings)...


You are incorrect. They tried it again. They tried JFK-SNA and when that didn't work they tried DTW-SNA. That failed and then moved it to LAS-SNA to slot squat.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:44 am

MrBretz wrote:
FedEx is retiring their A300’s. Maybe Delta could buy those and ship passengers in boxes? The A300 still flies into SNA the last time I looked. On a more serious note, someone could look at some performance charts and tell us if the A320 or 737 whatever could make the distance with a 5000’ runway.


They could buy new 320 NEO's if the 321 can't do it. The existing 320 CEO's are older on average than the 752's and the 738's to back to '98.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Polot
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:45 am

MrBretz wrote:
FedEx is retiring their A300’s. Maybe Delta could buy those and ship passengers in boxes? The A300 still flies into SNA the last time I looked. On a more serious note, someone could look at some performance charts and tell us if the A320 or 737 whatever could make the distance with a 5000’ runway.

Iirc it’s not just runway performance issues at SNA but also climb performance (especially engine out climb) due to noise abatement procedures and terrain.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights9N

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:48 am

Babyshark wrote:
Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?


A lot of things.

Doesn't United use a 737 for SNA-EWR?

We use the 319 on it to MSP and it's about 400 miles shorter than ATL but it's not stressed at all to do it. We could probably use the 320 on it and I wouldn't be surprised if the 321 does it just fine. We don't mix and match like we once did, certain aircraft mostly stay to certain stations.



MSP seams to be the limit out of SNA for DLs current A319s. Depending on the wind, temp and load, the flight can struggle to have the Necessary performance. The 737-700s were initially tasked with ATL-SNA-ATL duty, but I think the capacity hit was too much.

Maybe the performance on the A321N will be good enough?
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CarlosSi
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:49 am

Easily just use a 73G (-700). It’s not that big of a down gauge and they could add less-than-weekly frequencies to compensate for the seat amounts.

Long live the 757.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:00 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
You are incorrect. They tried it again. They tried JFK-SNA and when that didn't work they tried DTW-SNA. That failed and then moved it to LAS-SNA to slot squat.


No, you are incorrect. I have residences in both Orange County and Metro Detroit, and fly between the pair at least once a month. NW launched service circa 1992 (I remember this fondly, I was a kid and elated that we could fly nonstop from the then-brand new airport) and operated it continuously until 2006. Several years before that, NW synergized its network and dropped secondary Western markets from DTW, and secondary Eastern markets from MSP. SNA was actually a holdout, but ended as nearby automotive business dried up (Ford's West Coast HQ, about 10 minutes from SNA, was gradually leased to Taco Bell, until the later moved its entire HQ into the building, although Ford still occupies the building's wing). DL moved its CVG service to DTW in 2010, but operated the latter as a redeye with the 319. Unsurprisingly, the service quickly failed and was moved (again) to JFK, which failed just as fast. DTW was relaunched with the 73G in early September 2017, and has operated continuously since (now as a 757), despite DL losing slots two consecutive years.

JFK has been dropped more times than DTW in the past 10 years And like I mentioned, there are oodles of routes that were dropped from NYC, ATL, MSP, SLC and LAX during the recession that have since resumed but for some reason this route is singled out. And let's face it -- DL is significantly stronger in SoCal today than it was 10 years ago. When I book my tickets (SNA-DTW), the cheapest fare buckets are typically through LAS, SEA or the ATL redeye, then some of the SLC and MSP flights, with the nonstop/DTW necessitating much higher fare buckets. That's why these days, I'm typically on UA, which costs much less for the times I desire. With the construction project on the 405, rarely will I go out of LAX.
Last edited by WidebodyPTV on Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:05 am

73G would make the most sense.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:08 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
73G would make the most sense.


That's a huge drop in capacity, especially given DL's lost slots two consecutive years.

On peak days, DL runs three to four 757 to ATL and one to DTW. The 757 has 199 seats, the 73G 124.
 
questions
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:45 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
They have used the 73G on SNA-ATL. AA uses the 738 on SNA-DFW. Delta could just get rid of DTW-SNA since it's been stopped and started more times than I can remember and just move that SNA slot to ATL and use all 738 on SNA-ATL. The additional frequency would make up for the drop in equipment size.


You must have a short memory. DL dropped DTW/SNA only once (during the Great Recession, after "moving" the flight from CVG and operating it as a redeye), and has continually operated it since resuming service nearly three years ago. Average fares are sold and load factors are very high. DL upgauged the flight to a 757 from the 73G, and has kept service even as it lost slots at SNA two years in a row.

There's a lot of routes that were dropped from ATL, MSP and SLC during the Great Recession that have since resumed. I'm uncertain to why this one is constantly singled out (especially given its prior poor timings)...


You are incorrect. They tried it again. They tried JFK-SNA and when that didn't work they tried DTW-SNA. That failed and then moved it to LAS-SNA to slot squat.


Why does JFK-SNA not work?
 
questions
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:47 am

Does DL have other challenging airports for which the 757 will be difficult to replace?
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:52 am

questions wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

You must have a short memory. DL dropped DTW/SNA only once (during the Great Recession, after "moving" the flight from CVG and operating it as a redeye), and has continually operated it since resuming service nearly three years ago. Average fares are sold and load factors are very high. DL upgauged the flight to a 757 from the 73G, and has kept service even as it lost slots at SNA two years in a row.

There's a lot of routes that were dropped from ATL, MSP and SLC during the Great Recession that have since resumed. I'm uncertain to why this one is constantly singled out (especially given its prior poor timings)...


You are incorrect. They tried it again. They tried JFK-SNA and when that didn't work they tried DTW-SNA. That failed and then moved it to LAS-SNA to slot squat.


Why does JFK-SNA not work?


I have no idea what the actual reasoning was, but I’d have to guess it was the flights timing, with only one flight a day, It seamed to only work for NYC based passengers. It generally left the Hub (JFK) too early for any inbound connections, and arrived in JFK too late for any outbound connections. It was JFK-SNA 805-1145, and then SNA-JFK 1230-2100. Completely missed any connection opportunities in JFK (except for TLV and ACC).
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flymco753
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:05 am

DL isn't ditching DTW-SNA anytime soon. I asked an industry professional how it's doing and they issued the theory that SJC & SMF were results from the success of SNA. SNA started as a 73W and was quickly upgauged to a 757. SJC & SMF both started as 738's and we're upgauged to 739's very shortly after the route started. SJC will now go twice daily, which partially explains the success of the route.
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alasizon
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:10 am

Given the 757 is about 4-6 years away from retirements en masse for DL, they still have plenty of time. The issue for the 321 is the climb gradient when loaded with fuel as well as landing on a wet runway. When US/AA had the 321 on PHX-SNA, if SNA had a wet runway, it had to be downgraded to a 320 or swapped to a 757 to operate the flight.

My guess is this is a market DL was hoping the MOM could operate (assuming it fits in the gate envelope at SNA).
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Babyshark
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights9N

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:23 am

Web500sjc wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
Ryan877 wrote:
Delta has been flying 757-200s between SNA and ATL since 1987. With these aircraft getting up there in age, they won't be around forever to fly in and out of this unique airport. I think the 739ER and A321 would both be too heavy, plus the 737 and 738 would be downsizes. Although the A220-100 could be doable, that would also be a downsize. What could replace the 757 on this route? Could the A220-300 be the answer?


A lot of things.

Doesn't United use a 737 for SNA-EWR?

We use the 319 on it to MSP and it's about 400 miles shorter than ATL but it's not stressed at all to do it. We could probably use the 320 on it and I wouldn't be surprised if the 321 does it just fine. We don't mix and match like we once did, certain aircraft mostly stay to certain stations.



MSP seams to be the limit out of SNA for DLs current A319s. Depending on the wind, temp and load, the flight can struggle to have the Necessary performance. The 737-700s were initially tasked with ATL-SNA-ATL duty, but I think the capacity hit was too much.

Maybe the performance on the A321N will be good enough?


I fly the 319 on those routes. It doesn't struggle.
 
MrBretz
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:33 am

I just noticed ATL is about 200 miles further than ORD. And ATL is in the 1900 mile range. One wouldn't think that would be an issue for almost any A320 or 737.
 
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AirKevin
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:12 am

MrBretz wrote:
I just noticed ATL is about 200 miles further than ORD. And ATL is in the 1900 mile range. One wouldn't think that would be an issue for almost any A320 or 737.

Keep in mind that the longest runway at SNA is only 5,701 feet in length, so your take-off weight is going to be extremely limited.
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MrBretz
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:58 am

AirKevin wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I just noticed ATL is about 200 miles further than ORD. And ATL is in the 1900 mile range. One wouldn't think that would be an issue for almost any A320 or 737.

Keep in mind that the longest runway at SNA is only 5,701 feet in length, so your take-off weight is going to be extremely limited.


Right...but they make ORD. 200 miles more doesn't seem like that much. But you are all experts and I am not.
 
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AirKevin
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:43 pm

MrBretz wrote:
AirKevin wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I just noticed ATL is about 200 miles further than ORD. And ATL is in the 1900 mile range. One wouldn't think that would be an issue for almost any A320 or 737.

Keep in mind that the longest runway at SNA is only 5,701 feet in length, so your take-off weight is going to be extremely limited.

Right...but they make ORD. 200 miles more doesn't seem like that much. But you are all experts and I am not.

Looking at the range chart, to get an extra 200 miles, you'd need to be about 2,000 pounds lighter. They might be able to make it to ORD, but how much of a weight restriction are they taking in the process. How many seats are they blocking. And if they're already blocking seats on ORD, they would have to block even more seats for ATL. You can only do that for so long before you start losing money.
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Okcflyer
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:09 pm

Without looking at the numbers, it seems like the A321neo with high thrust engines (35k) should be able to do SNA-ATL with full pax and dry conditions.

Are there provisions in the noise ordinance such that it’s possible the neos are quiet enough not to be required for those extra procedures? The climb out procedure increases trip fuel requirement, which hurts longer range.

Wet runway is probably an issue without a solution for A321neo. How many days does it rain a year?
 
Elementalism
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:39 pm

questions wrote:
Does DL have other challenging airports for which the 757 will be difficult to replace?


I'd guess some hot and high airports in the mountains? Eagle, Jackson hole?

A319s probably best option as a replacement?
 
AF773
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Re: What could replace Delta's SNA - ATL 757 flights?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:32 pm

I would not be surprised if, when the time comes, Delta's final B752 commercial flight will indeed be SNA-ATL
Next flights: SAN-LAX-MEX; SAN-ATL-PNS; SNA-ATL-CDG-SEA-SNA; LAX-CDG; ORY-FEZ; NCE-AMS-TPE-MNL-TAG

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