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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:00 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

BLOCKBUSTER WEEK!


9X HNL-MKK FEB 0>1.5[0]
9X HNM-OGG FEB 0>0.5[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>0.2[1.9]
9X LUP-MKK FEB 0>1.0[0]
9X MKK-OGG FEB 0>0.5[0]

AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
AA AVL-LGA JUN 0.3>0.8[0.3] JUL 0.3>1.0[0.3] AUG 0.3>1.0[0.3] SEP 0.3>1.0[0.3] OCT 0.3>1.0[0.3]
AA BIL-DFW JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.6[1.0]
Interesting they picked BOS to retaliate for MIA with B6 collateral damage to RDU
**AA BOS-IND MAY 0>1.5[0] JUN 0>1.9[0] JUL 0>1.9[0] AUG 0>1.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0]
**AA BOS-RDU MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
AA BWI-MIA JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[1.6] SEP 3>2[1.0] OCT 3>2[1.0]
*AA CHS-LGA JUN 1.0>0.4[0.9] JUL 1.0>0.3[0.9] AUG 1.0>0.3[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.3[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.3[1.0]
AA CLT-JFK APR 7>6[6]
AA DFW-GSO JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]
AA DFW-JFK APR 2>1.6[3]
AA DFW-LAS APR 12>11[9]
AA DFW-LAX APR 15>14[13]
AA DFW-MCO APR 11>10[9]
AA DFW-MEM JUN 7>8[9] JUL 7>8[8]
AA DTW-LGA JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4]
*AA EYW-ORD JUN 1.0>0.2[0.2] JUL 1.0>0.1[0.1] AUG 1.0>0.2[0.2] SEP 1.0>0.1[0.1] OCT 1.0>0.2[0.1]
AA IAH-PHL JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[3] SEP 4>3[2] OCT 4>3[2]
AA JAX-MIA JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>6[5] OCT 5>6[5]
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-MIA APR 8>6[6]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now
*AA LAX-MSY MAY 1.8>1.0[0.4] JUN 2>0.1[0.2] JUL 2>0[0.1] AUG 2>0.9[0.5]
AA LAX-SJC JUN 6>5[5] JUL 6>5[5]
AA LAX-SLC JUL 4>3[3]
AA LGA-ORD APR 12>11[14]
AA LGA-STL JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[4]
AA MIA-PIT JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3] SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
AA MIA-STL MAY 3>2.0[1.9] JUN 3>2[1.7] JUL 3>2[1.7] AUG 3>2[1.7] SEP 3>2[3] OCT 3>2[3]
AA ORD-PBI JUN 2>1.1[1.0] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 2>1.4[1.0]
AA ORD-RSW JUN 3>2[1.1] JUL 3>2[1.0]

AC FLL-YOW APR 0.8>0.4[0.7]
**AC LAS-YEG APR 0.8>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[0.5] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
AC LAS-YVR APR 1.8>1.0[2]
AC LAS-YYZ APR 2>3[3]
AC LAX-YYC APR 2>1.0[2.0]
AC MIA-YYZ APR 2>3[2]
AC PBI-YYZ APR 1.4>1.0[1.5]
AC SFO-YUL APR 1.7>1.0[1.6]
AC SFO-YYC APR 2>1.0[2]
AC TPA-YOW APR 0.4>0.2[0.3]

*AD JFK-VCP JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

AS ATL-SEA JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2.0] SEP 2>3[1.9] OCT 2>3[1.8]
*AS MRY-SEA JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
AS ORD-SEA JUN 5>6[5] JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5]
AS SEA-SLC JUL 5>6[5]
AS SEA-STS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.5] AUG 2>3[2]
AS SEA-YYJ JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4] AUG 4>3[4]

*AV CTG-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 1.0>0[0.9] JUN 1.0>0[0.9] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

DL ALB-DTW SEP 4>5[3] OCT 4>5[4]
DL ATL-BWI JUL 11>12[11] AUG 11>12[11]
DL ATL-FLL SEP 12>13[11] OCT 12>13[11]
DL ATL-GNV SEP 8>7[7] OCT 8>7[7]
DL ATL-MCI SEP 8>9[7] OCT 8>9[7]
DL ATL-MYR SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
DL ATL-SEA OCT 9>8[7]
DL ATL-SNA SEP 4>3[3] OCT 4>3[3]
DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]
DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL BOI-SLC JUL 6>5[6] AUG 6>5[6] SEP 6>5[5] OCT 6>5[6]
DL BUF-MSP JUN 1.7>1.0[1.7] JUL 2>1.0[1.8] AUG 2>1.0[2.0]
DL BWI-MSP SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
DL CHS-MSP JUN 0.8>0.6[0.1]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]
DL JFK-PBI MAY 1.9>1.0[1.8] JUN 2>1.0[1.8] JUL 2>1.0[1.7] AUG 2>1.0[1.8]
DL LGA-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2.0] SEP 2>3[1.9]
Didn't realize it was 5 RTs, wow! They flew these same routes in their last MIA hub attempt.
**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
DL MSP-RAP JUL 6>7[6] AUG 6>7[5]
DL MSP-SBN SEP 1.9>3[1.8] OCT 1.8>3[1.9]
DL MSP-TPA OCT 3>2[1.8]
DL PSP-SLC MAY 3>2[2]
DL RDU-SLC AUG 1.6>1.3[0.9] SEP 1.5>0.9[0.8] OCT 1.6>1.0[0.8]

F9 AUS-MCO JUN 1.0>0.4[0.6]
F9 BOS-MCO JUN 0.8>0.6[1.0]
F9 LAS-OMA MAR 0.6>0.8[0.4]
F9 LAS-SLC MAR 0.7>0.9[0.4]
**F9 MCO-PUJ JUN 0.6>0[0.4] JUL 0.6>0[0.5]

FI IAD-KEF SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0]

HA HNL-LIH APR 18>17[18] JUN 20>19[20] JUL 20>19[20]

MW HNM-OGG FEB 2>1.5[2]

*NK FLL-OAK APR 0>1.0[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>0.3[0]

QF HNL-SYD MAR 0.6>0.9[0.6]

*SS EWR-ORY JUN 0.6>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0]
*SS JFK-ORY JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]

UA AUS-SFO MAY 6>5[5]
UA BDL-DEN MAY 1.8>1.0[1.0]
UA BDL-IAH MAY 1.8>1.0[1.0]
UA BOS-DEN MAY 6>5[5]
UA BUR-DEN MAY 3>2[2]
UA BWI-DEN MAY 3>2[2]
UA BWI-SFO MAR 1.5>1.1[1.5]
UA BZN-ORD MAY 2.0>1.2[2]
UA CID-DEN MAY 4>3[2]
**UA CLE-DCA APR 4>0[4] MAY 3>0[5] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[4] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[5]
UA CLE-EWR JUN 8>7[7] JUL 8>7[7] AUG 8>7[7] SEP 8>7[7] OCT 8>7[7]
UA CLE-LAX JUN 3>2[1.8] JUL 3>2[1.8] AUG 3>2[1.9] SEP 3>2[2]
**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]
*UA DCA-EWR APR 8>12[7] MAY 8>12[8] JUN 8>13[7] JUL 8>13[7] AUG 8>13[7] SEP 8>13[7] OCT 8>13[8]
UA DEN-GEG MAY 2>3[2]
*UA DEN-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 0.2>0[0]
UA DEN-PHL MAY 3>2[2]
UA DEN-PIT MAY 3>2[3]
UA DUB-ORD OCT 0.6>0[0.7]
UA ELP-ORD MAY 1.7>1.0[2]
UA EWR-HHH MAY 0.4>0.6[0.1]
UA EWR-LIM OCT 0.6>0.9[0.9]
UA EWR-NAP OCT 0.7>0.5[0.6]
UA EWR-XNA MAY 0.7>1.0[0.9]
UA EYW-ORD MAY 1.2>0.6[1.0]
UA GRR-IAH MAY 1.9>1.2[1.9]
UA GSP-IAH MAY 3>2[1.8]
*UA IAD-PUJ MAY 1.0>0.4[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 0.5>0.1[0.6]
UA IAH-MOT MAY 0.1>0.3[0.2]
UA IAH-PBI MAY 1.8>1.0[1.0]
UA IAH-PDX MAY 3>2[3]
UA ITO-LAX MAY 0.7>0.9[0.7]
UA LAX-PHX MAY 3>2[3]
UA LAX-YVR MAY 1.8>1.0[1.0]
UA LWB-ORD MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0]
UA MIA-ORD MAY 3>2[2]
UA ORD-PBI MAY 1.2>0.5[0.3]
UA ORD-SMF MAY 3>2[3]
UA ORD-YVR MAY 1.8>1.0[3]
UA RDU-SFO MAY 3>1.8[1.8]

VB MCO-MTY JUL 0.2>0[0]

737MAX Cancels
WN ABQ-MCI MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0]
WN ALB-MDW MAY 2>1.5[2]
WN ATL-CLE APR 1.6>1.1[1.9] MAY 1.7>0.9[1.8]
WN ATL-FLL MAY 5>4[5]
WN ATL-IAD MAY 3>2[3]
WN ATL-LAS MAY 3>2[3]
WN ATL-MCO MAY 6>5[5]
WN ATL-MKE MAY 1.7>1.2[1.9]
WN ATL-PBI MAY 1.8>1.4[1.6]
WN ATL-PHX MAY 3>1.9[1.6]
WN ATL-SAT APR 1.6>1.1[1.9] MAY 1.8>1.1[1.9]
WN AUS-RDU APR 0.6>0.2[0] MAY 1.0>0.4[0]
WN BDL-FLL APR 1.1>0.6[1.1] MAY 1.2>0.4[1.1]
WN BDL-MDW MAY 3>1.9[3]
WN BDL-STL APR 1.0>0.5[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WN BNA-BUR APR 0.6>0.2[0] MAY 1.0>0.3[0]
WN BNA-CLE MAY 3>2[3]
WN BNA-MSP APR 1.7>1.3[1.0] MAY 1.7>1.0[1.0]
WN BNA-SAN MAY 2>1.5[1.9]
WN BNA-SJC MAY 1.0>0.7[0]
WN BOI-SJC APR 1.7>1.2[0.9] MAY 1.5>0.9[0.9]
WN BOS-MDW MAY 5>4[4]
WN BUR-DEN MAY 4>3[1.9]
WN BUR-LAS MAY 11>10[10]
WN BUR-MDW APR 1.0>0.6[0.9] MAY 1.0>0.3[0.9]
WN BUR-PDX APR 0.9>0.4[0.9] MAY 0.8>0.2[0.9]
WN BUR-SFO MAY 5>4[4]
WN BUR-SMF MAY 10>9[8]
WN BWI-HOU MAY 4>3[4]
WN BWI-MEM APR 1.6>1.1[1.7] MAY 1.8>1.2[1.9]
WN BWI-MSP MAY 1.8>1.3[1.8]
WN BWI-PIT MAY 3>1.8[3]
WN BWI-RDU MAY 7>6[6]
WN BWI-SAN MAY 3>2[3]
WN BWI-SLC APR 1.0>0.8[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0]
WN CHS-HOU APR 1.0>0.5[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WN CLE-MKE MAY 1.5>1.1[1.6]
WN CLE-STL MAY 3>1.9[2.0]
WN CLT-MDW MAY 3>2[3]
WN CMH-TPA MAY 2>1.9[2]
WN DEN-GEG MAY 2>1.6[1.9]
WN DEN-LGB MAY 0>0.3[0.2]
WN DEN-MEM APR 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.4[1.0]
WN DEN-MSY MAY 3>2[3]
WN DEN-RNO APR 2>1.9[1.9] MAY 3>1.9[1.9]
WN DEN-SEA MAY 5>4[3]
WN DEN-SFO MAY 4>3[3]
WN DEN-SLC MAY 6>5[6]
WN DEN-TUS MAY 3>2[2]
WN DTW-PHX APR 0.8>0.3[1.0] MAY 1.1>0.4[1.0]
WN DTW-STL MAY 3>1.9[1.9]
WN ELP-LAS MAY 2>1.8[2]
WN ELP-PHX APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>1.8[3]
WN FLL-PHX APR 1.1>0.7[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.4[1.0]
WN FLL-SJU MAY 3.0>2.3[2.0]
WN GEG-LAS MAY 2>1.6[1.9]
WN GEG-OAK APR 1.9>1.5[2] MAY 1.8>1.1[1.8]
WN GEG-SAN APR 1.0>0.6[0] MAY 1.0>0.4[0]
WN HOU-OAK APR 2>2.0[1.9] MAY 3>1.9[2]
WN HOU-SJC APR 1.0>0.5[1.6] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WN HOU-SMF APR 0.6>0[0.1] MAY 1.0>0.1[0.1]
WN IND-LAX APR 0.6>0.1[0.9] MAY 0.8>0.1[0.9]
WN ISP-PBI APR 2>1.7[2] MAY 2.0>1.3[1.5]
WN LAS-MCO MAY 2>1.5[2]
WN LAS-MKE MAY 3>2[3]
WN LAS-OKC MAY 2>1.7[2]
WN LAS-RDU APR 0.8>0.3[1.0] MAY 1.1>0.5[1.0]
WN LAS-SAN MAY 11>10[11]
WN LAS-SEA MAY 3>2[3]
WN LAX-MKE APR 0.7>0.2[0.9] MAY 0.8>0.1[0.9]
WN LAX-SFO APR 8>7[9] MAY 8>6[9]
WN LAX-TUS MAY 3>2[3]
WN MCI-MKE APR 1.5>1.0[1.7] MAY 1.6>0.9[1.7]
WN MCI-MSP MAY 1.5>1.1[1.7]
WN MCI-RDU MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0]
WN MDW-OAK MAY 4>3[3]
WN MDW-PIT MAY 4>3[4]
WN MDW-SFO APR 1.7>1.2[2] MAY 1.8>1.2[1.9]
WN MDW-STL MAY 7>6[7]
WN MSP-PHX APR 1.9>1.4[1.7] MAY 2>1.2[1.2]
WN MSY-SAT APR 1.7>1.2[1.0] MAY 1.8>1.2[1.0]
WN OAK-RNO MAY 1.7>1.3[1.8]
WN OAK-SAT APR 0.6>0.1[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WN OAK-SEA MAY 6>5[6]
WN OAK-SLC MAY 3>1.9[3]
WN ONT-SFO MAY 4>3[0]
WN PHL-TPA MAY 2>1.5[2]
WN PHX-RDU APR 0.7>0.3[0.4] MAY 1.0>0.3[0.3]
WN PHX-SFO MAY 5>4[5]
WN PHX-SJC MAY 6>5[7]
WN PIT-STL MAY 1.8>1.4[1.1]
WN RNO-SAN MAY 3>2[2.0]
WN RNO-SJC MAY 2>1.7[2]
WN SAN-SLC APR 1.8>1.3[1.0] MAY 1.7>1.0[1.0]
WN SEA-SMF MAY 4>3[4]
WN SFO-STL APR 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.4[1.0]
WN SJC-TUS APR 0.9>0.4[0.9] MAY 0.8>0.2[0.9]

*Y4 BJX-DFW APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.2[0]
*Y4 BJX-LAS APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.4[0]
*Y4 BJX-ORD APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
Y4 DEN-GDL JUL 0.4>0.9[0.7] AUG 0.5>0.7[0.6]
Y4 DFW-DGO AUG 0.5>0.3[0.4]
*Y4 DFW-ZCL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.2[0]
Y4 FAT-GDL JUL 1.0>1.5[1.5] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.3]
Y4 GDL-IAH JUL 0.6>1.0[0.9] AUG 0.6>0.8[0.8]
Y4 GDL-MCO JUL 0.3>0.5[0.4] AUG 0.3>0.5[0.4]
Y4 GDL-OAK JUL 1.1>1.5[1.4]
Y4 LAX-MEX APR 1.3>1.7[1.6] MAY 1.3>1.7[1.3] JUN 1.3>1.8[1.5] JUL 1.3>2.0[1.9] AUG 1.3>2[1.7] SEP 1.3>2[1.3] OCT 1.0>1.5[1.3]
Y4 MEX-MIA APR 0.8>0.3[1.0] MAY 0.9>0.3[1.0] JUN 0.9>0.3[1.0] JUL 0.8>0.3[1.0] AUG 0.9>0.3[1.0] SEP 0.9>0.3[1.0] OCT 0.6>0.2[0.9]
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2836
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:21 pm

Yay my favourite Sunday reading.

Interesting for AA how LGA-CHS is being reduced to weekends, while AVL goes from weekends to almost daily. That kinda sticks out as rather strange. LAX-MSY is kinda whacko too...first sign of MAX cuts through the summer perhaps?

AA choosing BOS-IND is a subtle jab at DL given IND is a quasi focus city for DL. Ironically this route will likely succeed as AA begins to realize that not everything has to always go to a hub to be successful...UA continues to go in the opposite direction with two CLE routes cut from an ever-dwindling focus city.

Looks like AC are reducing YEG-LAS to winter seasonal only regardless of the outcome of the MAX saga. I’d guess AC’s other April changes though are to cover for MAX flying.
Last edited by Dominion301 on Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:38 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
dfdubflyer
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:01 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:23 pm

Billings up to double daily from DFW. These upper Mountain West adds from DFW the last 18 months or so seem to be doing reasonably well for American.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5304
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:53 pm

good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it
enilria wrote:
AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now

*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]

There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.

DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]

DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.

**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]

They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.

**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]

and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?
 
Jet-lagged
Posts: 912
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2002 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:08 pm

Thank you enilria.

Exploring these is becoming part of my Sunday routine.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 551
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

I think it depends when the new flights are scheduled. Last I heard off-peak slots were still readily available at JFK. If they aren't departing first thing in the morning or during the late afternoon/evening rush, then the slots might not be hard to come by.

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

I think the times will need to be adjusted here. Right now of the four flights, two are supposed to depart JFK within an hour of each other (at 1 and 2).

It's really amazing how much DL has grown on JFK-AUS over the last few years. Five years ago this route was 1x daily on a CR9/E75 or equivalent. With this add it will be 4x 320.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8236
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:25 pm

IIRC the Delta press release talked about 41 MIA flights from ten U.S. cities. That makes calling it a hub quite an exaggeration, but that's a.net. I think the idea that DL is going to start MIA services to every 2nd and 3rd tier burgh to connect to a few LATAM flights that aren't even daily in many cases - in competition with AA's hub - is utterly daft.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5988
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:33 pm

I always appreciate your threads because of the work in them.

But I am puzzled by your jetblue comments because there were two threads dedicated to them.
 
jmscsc
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:36 pm

I don't recall DL flying 3x/day on the SBN-MSP route before. That's a significant increase. But it is at the start of college football season, which might be the reason.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 551
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:36 pm

enilria wrote:
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]

I think it's interesting to compare these two DL focus cities given this add. The later days of the CVG hubs were characterized by a large amount of RJ service and mainline to the west coast/hubs. RDU is now structured very similarly (albeit on a smaller scale). Two two cities actually look very similar now in terms of destinations served and equipment used. It's almost as if part of the CVG hub has been moved down south/split into a dual focus city operation.

Is CVG still a larger station than RDU for DL? I would guess it still is slightly larger than RDU, but I'm not entirely sure.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 617
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:39 pm

In due time, Miami will be a focus city or hub for Delta. Too much to gain not to go after the market over time. Any-size growing op Delta may have connecting to a well-established international network Latam offers is moving towards in the near-term focus-city status. LATAM's less than daily service complemented American's strategy. In couple years Miami will be a bold city on Delta's route map.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5350
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:08 pm

HVNandrew wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]

I think it's interesting to compare these two DL focus cities given this add. The later days of the CVG hubs were characterized by a large amount of RJ service and mainline to the west coast/hubs. RDU is now structured very similarly (albeit on a smaller scale). Two two cities actually look very similar now in terms of destinations served and equipment used. It's almost as if part of the CVG hub has been moved down south/split into a dual focus city operation.

Is CVG still a larger station than RDU for DL? I would guess it still is slightly larger than RDU, but I'm not entirely sure.


This is an interesting add, it appears

RDU is sizably larger than CVG at this point, I think SFO & LAS have also passed CVG, with ORD not too far behind.

MIflyer12 wrote:
I think the idea that DL is going to start MIA services to every 2nd and 3rd tier burgh to connect to a few LATAM flights that aren't even daily in many cases - in competition with AA's hub - is utterly daft.


Has anyone said that would occur?
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:19 pm

Thanks to everybody for all the kind words. This week was a blockbuster!

tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it
enilria wrote:
AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now

*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]

There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.

DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]

DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.

**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]

They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.

**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]

and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?

Regarding B6:
I think B6 and AS have the same strategy: buy the other one.

They are pursuing that in two ways: retreat to points of strength to improve margins to get Wall Street to support them being the buyer and at the same time eliminating overlap with the other in their region. B6 is really burning the deck chairs. I think they may win in The Who buys who battle, but at what cost. Cutting FLL routes is shocking.
Last edited by enilria on Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
maverick4002
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it
enilria wrote:
AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now

*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]

There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.

DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]

DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.

**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]

They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.

**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]

and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?



Port of Spain is Carnival season. Feb 24 and 25 this year. Demand goes through the roof and mos airlines add extra turns for those few weeks. Its real, and the flights will probably get all filled even at the inevitable crappy flight times. That party in Port of Spain is not to be missed and people just need to get there
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:45 pm

I haven't followed the SEA-ATL route very closely. Is this the first time AS has been up to 3 daily?
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1411
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:58 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Yay my favourite Sunday reading.

Interesting for AA how LGA-CHS is being reduced to weekends, while AVL goes from weekends to almost daily. That kinda sticks out as rather strange.


AA has been very aggressive in AVL lately. AVL hasn't had daily nonstop service to LGA in years, even during the summer. G4's AVL-EWR is less than daily, and UA's daily AVL-EWR has been seasonal but right now is scheduled through December. I know NYC-CHS is a much bigger market, but there is a lot of competition for AA.
 
TW870
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:02 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
In due time, Miami will be a focus city or hub for Delta. Too much to gain not to go after the market over time. Any-size growing op Delta may have connecting to a well-established international network Latam offers is moving towards in the near-term focus-city status. LATAM's less than daily service complemented American's strategy. In couple years Miami will be a bold city on Delta's route map.


I am more skeptical. I think DL will grow at MIA to do two things:

1. Make Latam's network more valuable to South America point of sale customers by offering more one-stop service in the U.S. southeast via Miami.
2. Be more competitive with AA to Latin American (for Latam connections) in southeastern markets where Delta is already strong. Hence, the MCO and TPA adds. MCO-based point of sale, for example, already has good options on DL for Europe and Asia connections, and now the Miami flights make for very convenient South American connections. That could attract local corporate clients away from AA.

Other than this, though, I do not see DL going after the MIA market as a whole. AA's portfolio is just too attractive to corporate clients to switch.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:15 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it
enilria wrote:
AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now

*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]

There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.

DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]

DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.

**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]

They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.

**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]

and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?



Port of Spain is Carnival season. Feb 24 and 25 this year. Demand goes through the roof and mos airlines add extra turns for those few weeks. Its real, and the flights will probably get all filled even at the inevitable crappy flight times. That party in Port of Spain is not to be missed and people just need to get there


POS flights from NYC will definitely fill in Feb/Mar. That’s an easy add. Surprised they weren’t scheduled beforehand.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:19 pm

enilria wrote:
Thanks to everybody for all the kind words. This week was a blockbuster!

tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it
enilria wrote:
AA AUS-MIA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.
AA JFK-LAS APR 0.9>0[2]
AA JFK-LAX JUN 12>10[11] JUL 12>10[10] AUG 12>10[10]
AA JFK-SAN APR 0.5>0[2.0]

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now

*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]

if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.

B6 ACK-BOS JUN 2>1.4[1.2] JUL 3>1.7[1.7] AUG 3>1.7[1.7] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.8]
B6 ACK-LGA JUN 0.9>0.5[0.9] JUL 1.3>0.7[1.4] AUG 1.3>0.7[1.5]
B6 AUS-BOS JUN 2>3[1.0] JUL 2>3[1.0] AUG 2>3[1.0] SEP 0.5>0.8[1.7]
B6 AUS-FLL MAY 1.0>1.6[1.0]
B6 AUS-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
**B6 BGI-FLL MAY 0.4>0[1.0] JUN 0.4>0[0.8] JUL 0.4>0[0.5] AUG 0.5>0[0.6]
B6 BGI-JFK JUN 2>3[1.9] JUL 2>3[1.7] AUG 2>3[1.7] SEP 0.6>0.8[1.7]
*B6 BNA-JFK MAY 0>2[0] JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>2[0] AUG 0>2[0] SEP 0>0.5[0]
B6 BOS-BUF JUN 5>3[5] JUL 4>3[5] AUG 5>3[5] SEP 1.3>0.8[4]
*B6 BOS-BZN JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
B6 BOS-EWR AUG 8>7[5]
B6 BOS-JFK MAR 6>7[5]
B6 BOS-LAS MAY 4>5[4]
Kinda surprised to see BOS to anywhere ending
*B6 BOS-OAK JUN 0.7>0[0.3] JUL 1.0>0[0.6] AUG 1.0>0[0.5] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
B6 BOS-SAN MAR 3>2.0[1.8]
B6 BOS-SAV JUN 2>1.4[1.3] JUL 2>1.0[1.1] AUG 2>1.0[1.2] SEP 0.5>0.3[1.6]
B6 BOS-SJU MAR 2.5>3.6[2.0] APR 2.4>3.1[2.0]
B6 BQN-JFK MAY 1.2>2.2[1.9]
Daily seems like too much
*B6 BZN-JFK JUN 0>0.7[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
B6 CHS-JFK MAR 2>3[2]
B6 CUN-MCO JUN 1.1>1.7[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.9[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.0]
B6 DEN-JFK MAY 1.0>2[1.6]
B6 FLL-JFK MAY 7>9[7] JUN 6>9[6] JUL 6>8[6] AUG 6>8[6] SEP 1.6>2[6]
B6 FLL-LAS FEB 1.9>1.4[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.0]
B6 FLL-PAP MAY 3>1.0[2] JUN 3>2[3]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.4>1.9[1.7]
B6 FLL-SJO MAY 1.0>0.5[1.0]
**B6 FLL-STI MAY 0.6>0[1.0] JUN 0.6>0[1.0] JUL 0.6>0[1.0] AUG 0.6>0[1.0]
*B6 GUA-JFK JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>0.3[0]
**B6 HAV-JFK MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.1[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.2[1.0] SEP 0.3>0.0[1.0]
**B6 HAV-MCO MAY 1.0>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]
B6 JFK-KIN FEB 2>3[2.0] MAR 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-LAS MAY 4>5[4] JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[3] SEP 1.1>1.3[4]
B6 JFK-LAX JUL 10>11[10] AUG 10>11[10]
B6 JFK-MBJ JUN 3>2.0[2] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[4] SEP 1.1>0.8[3]
B6 JFK-MSY FEB 1.6>2[2]
B6 JFK-NAS MAY 2>1.0[1.8]
*B6 JFK-OAK MAY 0.9>0[0.7] JUN 1.0>0[0.8] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.8]
B6 JFK-PAP MAY 2>1.0[2]
B6 JFK-PBI MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-POS FEB 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.2[1.0]
B6 JFK-PUJ MAY 3>2[3]
B6 JFK-RSW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2] SEP 0.5>0.8[2]
Why didn'y they leave LGB completely? It seems inevitable.
B6 LAS-LGB MAY 3>2[3] JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3] SEP 0.8>0.5[3]
*B6 LGB-OAK MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[3]
*B6 LGB-SJC MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
*B6 LGB-SMF MAY 2>0[2] JUN 2>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 0.5>0[2]
B6 MBJ-MCO JUN 1.3>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.9] SEP 0.3>0.5[1.1]
B6 MCO-NAS MAY 1.0>0.7[0.7]
**B6 MCO-PAP MAY 0.7>0[0.7] JUN 0.8>0[0.9] JUL 0.9>0[1.0] AUG 0.9>0[1.0] SEP 0.2>0[0.7]

Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?

DL AUS-JFK MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3]

seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.

DL AZO-DTW JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
DL CLE-DTW AUG 6>7[5] SEP 6>8[5] OCT 6>8[5]
DL CMH-DTW SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[6]
DL CVG-RDU JUN 1.7>3[1.8] JUL 1.7>3[1.5] AUG 1.7>3[1.8] SEP 1.7>3[1.7] OCT 1.7>3[1.6]
DL DTW-IND SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6]
DL DTW-ROC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]

There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.

DL GEG-SEA JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8]
DL IAD-SEA JUN 1.7>1.3[1.0]

DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.

**DL MCO-MIA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]
*DL MIA-RDU MAY 0>0.6[0] JUN 0>2[0.2] JUL 0>2[0.2] AUG 0>2[0.1] SEP 0>2[0] OCT 0>2[0]
*DL MIA-SLC AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
5 TPA? That gets cut back I bet.
**DL MIA-TPA MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]

They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.

**UA CLE-LGA APR 4>0[4] MAY 4>0[4] JUN 4>0[5] JUL 4>0[5] AUG 4>0[5] SEP 4>0[5] OCT 4>0[4]

and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?

Regarding B6:
I think B6 and AS have the same strategy: buy the other one.

They are pursuing that in two ways: retreat to points of strength to improve margins to get Wall Street to support them being the buyer and at the same time eliminating overlap with the other in their region. B6 is really burning the deck chairs. I think they may win in The Who buys who battle, but at what cost. Cutting FLL routes is shocking.

The FLL cuts aren’t surprising. They’ve been showing weakness on FLL-Caribbean for a full year now.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:24 pm

Thanks Emilia for doing this. I always look forward to it.
In regards to B6 @JFK- I can offer a little insight that will also explain some of the cuts elsewhere...

B6 has be sitting on a bunch of unused slots at JFK. The Port Authority came to B6 and said “Use they or loose them.” Hence why you see the Carribean adds, JFK-AUS, JFK-BNA.
At the same token, it’s because of this that SAN is loosing their BOS RON as that plan is now going to JFK flying.
 
BenflysDTW
Posts: 296
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:39 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:54 pm

I wonder if DL would be willing to add CVG-MIA. A few years ago they started MIA-IND/CMH/DCA as seasonal weekend service.
 
F27500
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 12:52 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:09 pm

Uh .. Bozeman, Montana ... do that many New Yorkers and Bostoners wanna go there ???
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:27 pm

F27500 wrote:
Uh .. Bozeman, Montana ... do that many New Yorkers and Bostoners wanna go there ???


Think Yellowstone park
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26252
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:34 pm

F27500 wrote:
Uh .. Bozeman, Montana ... do that many New Yorkers and Bostoners wanna go there ???


Yes. And if they work, I bet FLL to Bozeman isn’t that far behind.
a.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:36 pm

TW870 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
In due time, Miami will be a focus city or hub for Delta. Too much to gain not to go after the market over time. Any-size growing op Delta may have connecting to a well-established international network Latam offers is moving towards in the near-term focus-city status. LATAM's less than daily service complemented American's strategy. In couple years Miami will be a bold city on Delta's route map.


I am more skeptical. I think DL will grow at MIA to do two things:

1. Make Latam's network more valuable to South America point of sale customers by offering more one-stop service in the U.S. southeast via Miami.
2. Be more competitive with AA to Latin American (for Latam connections) in southeastern markets where Delta is already strong. Hence, the MCO and TPA adds. MCO-based point of sale, for example, already has good options on DL for Europe and Asia connections, and now the Miami flights make for very convenient South American connections. That could attract local corporate clients away from AA.

Other than this, though, I do not see DL going after the MIA market as a whole. AA's portfolio is just too attractive to corporate clients to switch.


I do agree with your two points above, if the strategy is unequivocally to use Atlanta as the main gateway for connecting traffic from above-southeast U.S. to South America based on current traffic trends. But as overall passenger traffic forecasts shows an increase in passenger volume over time, Miami is ripe for another carrier there. Delta will have more to gain than lose into the future with new Miami service, providing that LATAM sustains and continues to grow there as well. 20%, in effect, gives you some control and direction in the matter. Delta will be steering this alliance by how best to compete with American, in the short-term with small adds, and then into the long-term. Delta and Miami is at its infancy.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:47 pm

Starting a hub? I think delta is just trying to provide some feed for it's new south American flights via is new partner. I expect some more but not a hub
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:05 pm

I love these weekly posts and look forward to them, but DL isn't opening a Miami hub. I wouldn't even call it a focus city. It would not surprise me to see DL add more in MIA over time, but let's not forget their last attempt to build up Miami beyond the US hubs (LHR nonstop, or was it CDG, I don't exactly remember but they did have one TATL route for a time) didn't work out so well. I would not underestimate them but I also don't believe DL is the best partner for LATAM considering where it flies to in the US and AA for all the criticism, has POS in both the US and the majority of the Latin America markets it serves. That's not likely to change much.
 
amcnd
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:27 pm

jmscsc wrote:
I don't recall DL flying 3x/day on the SBN-MSP route before. That's a significant increase. But it is at the start of college football season, which might be the reason.


It’s also a MX base for SkyWest....
 
dcajet
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:50 pm

*AV CTG-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 1.0>0[0.9] JUN 1.0>0[0.9] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]


AV is consolidating the SAP-MIA/JFK flight with the SAL-MIA/JFK flight; route will be SAP-SAL-JFK/MIA.

Re CTG-MIA: the Colombian coast has become low cost territory; AV's BAQ-MIA is rumored to be hanging by a thread.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:56 pm

Maybe the Port Authority JFK stuff is real and PA is doing this due to AA not using 40 slots for this long. Still, I find it shocking B6 had this many spare slots all along when they have some of the worst arrival/departure times that probably don't even use slots.

dcajet wrote:
*AV CTG-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 1.0>0[0.9] JUN 1.0>0[0.9] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]


AV is consolidating the SAP-MIA/JFK flight with the SAL-MIA/JFK flight; route will be SAP-SAL-JFK/MIA.

Re CTG-MIA: the Colombian coast has become low cost territory; AV's BAQ-MIA is rumored to be hanging by a thread.

if that's the case, B6 should definitely start either JFK-SAP or SAL.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
Maybe the Port Authority JFK stuff is real and PA is doing this due to AA not using 40 slots for this long. Still, I find it shocking B6 had this many spare slots all along when they have some of the worst arrival/departure times that probably don't even use slots.

dcajet wrote:
*AV CTG-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 1.0>0[0.9] JUN 1.0>0[0.9] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]


AV is consolidating the SAP-MIA/JFK flight with the SAL-MIA/JFK flight; route will be SAP-SAL-JFK/MIA.

Re CTG-MIA: the Colombian coast has become low cost territory; AV's BAQ-MIA is rumored to be hanging by a thread.

if that's the case, B6 should definitely start either JFK-SAP or SAL.


They announced GUA this past week; SAL is Avianca's regional fortress; not sure how much business is for another carrier at SAP where AV (ex TACA) is at home. Honduras is a mess.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:39 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
I love these weekly posts and look forward to them, but DL isn't opening a Miami hub. I wouldn't even call it a focus city. It would not surprise me to see DL add more in MIA over time, but let's not forget their last attempt to build up Miami beyond the US hubs (LHR nonstop, or was it CDG, I don't exactly remember but they did have one TATL route for a time) didn't work out so well. I would not underestimate them but I also don't believe DL is the best partner for LATAM considering where it flies to in the US and AA for all the criticism, has POS in both the US and the majority of the Latin America markets it serves. That's not likely to change much.


Hard to not at least consider MIA a focus city for DL, considering how large their partners are at the airport, and the new service DL has added:

Air France flies: MIA-CDG/PAP/PTP
KLM flies: MIA-AMS
Aeromexico flies: MIA-MEX
Virgin flies: MIA-LHR
Westjet flies: MIA-YYZ
LATAM flies: MIA-GRU/EZE/FOR/MAO/REC/SSA/PUJ/SCL/LIM

You add in MIA-HAV/MCO/TPA/RDU/Hubs/Weekend service and the DL(and partners) MIA operation is quite sizable, similar to LAS.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
N649DL
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:46 pm

BenflysDTW wrote:
I wonder if DL would be willing to add CVG-MIA. A few years ago they started MIA-IND/CMH/DCA as seasonal weekend service.


I think CVG-MIA should come back on a CR9 soon. Either way, where is DL stating that they're opening an MIA hub? They just added a few routes, that's not a hub.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:05 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I love these weekly posts and look forward to them, but DL isn't opening a Miami hub. I wouldn't even call it a focus city. It would not surprise me to see DL add more in MIA over time, but let's not forget their last attempt to build up Miami beyond the US hubs (LHR nonstop, or was it CDG, I don't exactly remember but they did have one TATL route for a time) didn't work out so well. I would not underestimate them but I also don't believe DL is the best partner for LATAM considering where it flies to in the US and AA for all the criticism, has POS in both the US and the majority of the Latin America markets it serves. That's not likely to change much.


Hard to not at least consider MIA a focus city for DL, considering how large their partners are at the airport, and the new service DL has added:

Air France flies: MIA-CDG/PAP/PTP
KLM flies: MIA-AMS
Aeromexico flies: MIA-MEX
Virgin flies: MIA-LHR
Westjet flies: MIA-YYZ
LATAM flies: MIA-GRU/EZE/FOR/MAO/REC/SSA/PUJ/SCL/LIM

You add in MIA-HAV/MCO/TPA/RDU/Hubs/Weekend service and the DL(and partners) MIA operation is quite sizable, similar to LAS.

Yep, hard to not consider MIA a focus city already when they have 41 flights on their own metal (problem more soon) and a very sizable JV operation (maybe largest outside of NYC) which are mostly on widebodies. That's a lot of enplanement and revenues.

dcajet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Maybe the Port Authority JFK stuff is real and PA is doing this due to AA not using 40 slots for this long. Still, I find it shocking B6 had this many spare slots all along when they have some of the worst arrival/departure times that probably don't even use slots.

dcajet wrote:

AV is consolidating the SAP-MIA/JFK flight with the SAL-MIA/JFK flight; route will be SAP-SAL-JFK/MIA.

Re CTG-MIA: the Colombian coast has become low cost territory; AV's BAQ-MIA is rumored to be hanging by a thread.

if that's the case, B6 should definitely start either JFK-SAP or SAL.


They announced GUA this past week; SAL is Avianca's regional fortress; not sure how much business is for another carrier at SAP where AV (ex TACA) is at home. Honduras is a mess.

in the past year alone, they've added SJO/GYE/GEO/GUA out of JFK. The most obvious remaining ones out of NYC with any demand are BOG/UIO/SAL/SAP. BOG has too much competition and need A21N. UIO needs A21N and already has service to GYE. SAL can be served with A320 and has larger expat population than GUA. Honduras expat population is maybe 3/4 of Guatemalan and maybe 1/2 of Haiti IIRC. They have regularly 2 A321s going into PAP. GUA has EWR competition from UA during peak month. SAP would have no competition.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:38 am

NK starting FLL-OAK might be the first non-stop that I can think of, unless B6 flew it at some point. And it's interesting that WN doesn't do much transcon from FLL.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:25 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I love these weekly posts and look forward to them, but DL isn't opening a Miami hub. I wouldn't even call it a focus city. It would not surprise me to see DL add more in MIA over time, but let's not forget their last attempt to build up Miami beyond the US hubs (LHR nonstop, or was it CDG, I don't exactly remember but they did have one TATL route for a time) didn't work out so well. I would not underestimate them but I also don't believe DL is the best partner for LATAM considering where it flies to in the US and AA for all the criticism, has POS in both the US and the majority of the Latin America markets it serves. That's not likely to change much.


Hard to not at least consider MIA a focus city for DL, considering how large their partners are at the airport, and the new service DL has added:

Air France flies: MIA-CDG/PAP/PTP
KLM flies: MIA-AMS
Aeromexico flies: MIA-MEX
Virgin flies: MIA-LHR
Westjet flies: MIA-YYZ
LATAM flies: MIA-GRU/EZE/FOR/MAO/REC/SSA/PUJ/SCL/LIM

You add in MIA-HAV/MCO/TPA/RDU/Hubs/Weekend service and the DL(and partners) MIA operation is quite sizable, similar to LAS.

Yep, hard to not consider MIA a focus city already when they have 41 flights on their own metal (problem more soon) and a very sizable JV operation (maybe largest outside of NYC) which are mostly on widebodies. That's a lot of enplanement and revenues.

dcajet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Maybe the Port Authority JFK stuff is real and PA is doing this due to AA not using 40 slots for this long. Still, I find it shocking B6 had this many spare slots all along when they have some of the worst arrival/departure times that probably don't even use slots.

What DL nor its partners (save perhaps LATAM for now) is a commanding piece of the corporate contracts ex-MIA. Much, if not all of that, is in AA"s hands. Call DL a focus operation or a mini-hub. Heck call it a hub, but it absolutely can't and won't compete with the scale of what AA has now. At least for now. In the future, maybe. POS remains skewed in AA's favor on both ends of the purchasing market (Latin America, US). DL is a distant third (very) in Latin America.

if that's the case, B6 should definitely start either JFK-SAP or SAL.


They announced GUA this past week; SAL is Avianca's regional fortress; not sure how much business is for another carrier at SAP where AV (ex TACA) is at home. Honduras is a mess.

in the past year alone, they've added SJO/GYE/GEO/GUA out of JFK. The most obvious remaining ones out of NYC with any demand are BOG/UIO/SAL/SAP. BOG has too much competition and need A21N. UIO needs A21N and already has service to GYE. SAL can be served with A320 and has larger expat population than GUA. Honduras expat population is maybe 3/4 of Guatemalan and maybe 1/2 of Haiti IIRC. They have regularly 2 A321s going into PAP. GUA has EWR competition from UA during peak month. SAP would have no competition.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:42 am

psa1011 wrote:
NK starting FLL-OAK might be the first non-stop that I can think of, unless B6 flew it at some point. And it's interesting that WN doesn't do much transcon from FLL.


B6 flew it a LONG time ago I want to say even before FLL was serious base with all the LATAM and Caribbean services. It was dropped quickly and once FLL gained all the international flights and feed from US cities became more important, SFO was started instead of OAK. Now that's a MINT route.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:48 am

dcajet wrote:
*AV CTG-MIA APR 1.0>0[0.9] MAY 1.0>0[0.9] JUN 1.0>0[0.9] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
*AV JFK-SAP APR 0.3>0[0.2] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3]
(AV MIA-SAP APR 1.0>0[0.8] MAY 1.0>0[0.8] JUN 1.0>0[0.6] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[0.9] SEP 1.0>0[0.8] OCT 1.0>0[0.8]


AV is consolidating the SAP-MIA/JFK flight with the SAL-MIA/JFK flight; route will be SAP-SAL-JFK/MIA.

Re CTG-MIA: the Colombian coast has become low cost territory; AV's BAQ-MIA is rumored to be hanging by a thread.


NK's BAQ-FLL add is going to put even more pressure on AV.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:51 am

Brickell305 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Thanks to everybody for all the kind words. This week was a blockbuster!

tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria. Thanks for posting it early. I love it

i would imagine this is to keep DL out as well as strengthen their AUS position.

3 o the largest JFK transcon markets. Not sure why they keep extending LAS/SAN and then cutting. LAX down to 10 to 11x daily has to be a little concerning.
Interesting they had scheduled it to go from 1/week to 14/week YOY until now


if B6 is paying attention, this is the next Central American market for them ripe for taking. There is enough Honduras expat populaiton in NY/NJ area for a flight.


Given what we've already learnt this week. I don't even know where to start with this one. This seems like a bunch of panic moves by a management/route planning department before a bad earnings call.

Seriously, they are adding to JFK-KIN/MSY/POS 2 weeks before the schedule changes? What is going on here? Are these changes for real. Who makes route additions that close-in? They seemed to have reverted back to the tried and true strategy of adding to JFK whenever they are hurting elsewhere. Which is fine, but they are up 7 flights a day in the peak summer season. Where are these slots coming from? Are they getting a few from AA? I can't imagine they had that many slots sitting around unused for July/August. Someone help me here?

PAP looks like a complete disaster. Again, some super close-in cuts in March. Also, some super late adds to AUS, not sure what's up with that. These one month adds seem to be so weird.

LAS/LAX adds and SAN before this seem to be directly related to AA making cuts on their end. Again, where are they getting the additional JFK slots in peak summer season?


seems like counter to AA adding that second flight here.


There should be less DTW complaints this weak. Also, CVG-RDU seems to be another way to build up both cities that's not too painful. Gotta think they have to balance out these new adds in places like MIA with growth in more traditionally strong areas.


DL will need to add more than this to keep up with AS at SEA.


They are up at least 17 flights from the last 2 weeks to MIA. I'd say that's quite significant.


and the anticipation starts, where are these LGA slots going to. I remember a while back they cut 3 flights on LGA-RDU. Where did those slots go?

Regarding B6:
I think B6 and AS have the same strategy: buy the other one.

They are pursuing that in two ways: retreat to points of strength to improve margins to get Wall Street to support them being the buyer and at the same time eliminating overlap with the other in their region. B6 is really burning the deck chairs. I think they may win in The Who buys who battle, but at what cost. Cutting FLL routes is shocking.

The FLL cuts aren’t surprising. They’ve been showing weakness on FLL-Caribbean for a full year now.


B6 is likely to trim FLL even further in the next round of cuts. B6 is under pressure everywhere. NK has grown stronger at FLL, and absent MAX problems so has WN. BOS is turning into a bloodbath but one B6 cannot afford to retreat from. B6 has also lost ground at MCO over the last year or two.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:54 am

BenflysDTW wrote:
I wonder if DL would be willing to add CVG-MIA. A few years ago they started MIA-IND/CMH/DCA as seasonal weekend service.


Not sure if CVG is coming - DL still flies FLL-CVG so perhaps. I think more possible is more flying from east coast markets to MIA to feed the JV partners and pressure AA on those routes. BOS/LGA/JFK, maybe a single daily DCA if a slot is open.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:12 am

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
BenflysDTW wrote:
I wonder if DL would be willing to add CVG-MIA. A few years ago they started MIA-IND/CMH/DCA as seasonal weekend service.


Not sure if CVG is coming - DL still flies FLL-CVG so perhaps. I think more possible is more flying from east coast markets to MIA to feed the JV partners and pressure AA on those routes. BOS/LGA/JFK, maybe a single daily DCA if a slot is open.


DL already flies MIA-BOS/LGA/JFK.
a.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:14 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
IIRC the Delta press release talked about 41 MIA flights from ten U.S. cities. That makes calling it a hub quite an exaggeration, but that's a.net. I think the idea that DL is going to start MIA services to every 2nd and 3rd tier burgh to connect to a few LATAM flights that aren't even daily in many cases - in competition with AA's hub - is utterly daft.


Not to mention that the adds to MIA-MCO/TPA are DL Connection flights operated by Republic, who apparently has an operating base at MIA.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:16 am

psa1011 wrote:
NK starting FLL-OAK might be the first non-stop that I can think of, unless B6 flew it at some point. And it's interesting that WN doesn't do much transcon from FLL.


I haven't noticed a lot of WN transcon service from the East Coast (save for BWI), much less from FLL, especially with the MAX groundings. WN seems content to have East Coast flyers pass through MDW, STL, BNA, DAL or DEN to reach the West Coast, especially in recent months.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
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Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:19 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
IIRC the Delta press release talked about 41 MIA flights from ten U.S. cities. That makes calling it a hub quite an exaggeration, but that's a.net. I think the idea that DL is going to start MIA services to every 2nd and 3rd tier burgh to connect to a few LATAM flights that aren't even daily in many cases - in competition with AA's hub - is utterly daft.


Here's the press release issued by DL on Friday which you're referring to:

https://news.delta.com/delta-bolsters-m ... ship-latam

All but two of the flights referenced are on E175s; the notable exceptions are MIA-SLC-MIA on 738s.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 939
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:29 am

Dominion301 wrote:
Yay my favourite Sunday reading.

Interesting for AA how LGA-CHS is being reduced to weekends, while AVL goes from weekends to almost daily. That kinda sticks out as rather strange. LAX-MSY is kinda whacko too...first sign of MAX cuts through the summer perhaps?

AA choosing BOS-IND is a subtle jab at DL given IND is a quasi focus city for DL. Ironically this route will likely succeed as AA begins to realize that not everything has to always go to a hub to be successful...UA continues to go in the opposite direction with two CLE routes cut from an ever-dwindling focus city.

Looks like AC are reducing YEG-LAS to winter seasonal only regardless of the outcome of the MAX saga. I’d guess AC’s other April changes though are to cover for MAX flying.

Looks like Republic will be running IND-BOS, and BOS-RDU for both flags...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5304
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:20 am

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Thanks to everybody for all the kind words. This week was a blockbuster!


Regarding B6:
I think B6 and AS have the same strategy: buy the other one.

They are pursuing that in two ways: retreat to points of strength to improve margins to get Wall Street to support them being the buyer and at the same time eliminating overlap with the other in their region. B6 is really burning the deck chairs. I think they may win in The Who buys who battle, but at what cost. Cutting FLL routes is shocking.

The FLL cuts aren’t surprising. They’ve been showing weakness on FLL-Caribbean for a full year now.


B6 is likely to trim FLL even further in the next round of cuts. B6 is under pressure everywhere. NK has grown stronger at FLL, and absent MAX problems so has WN. BOS is turning into a bloodbath but one B6 cannot afford to retreat from. B6 has also lost ground at MCO over the last year or two.


B6 has gained against WN every quarter in the markets they are in. Even in the most recent Q3 results. WN is not in growth mode anymore in FLL. Their latam hub is now moved to HOU. NK is their biggest concerns. But if you look at it, NK numbers this quarter is probably going to be abysmal again so they are going to have to appease investors everywhere. FLL to Caribbean market is a huge bloodbath at the moment. FLL domestic has been doing pretty well.

These moves seem to be a concerted effort to cut the weakest routes like LGB, OAK, HAV, PAP so the aircraft could be redeployed to JFK to make use of the unused slots.

Could there be more more cuts at FLL? Sure, they are having aircraft delivery issues this year as last year. So if JFK slot constrain loses or AA's slots get released to the market up for grabs or if they suddenly need to add some flights in BOS, Florida will lose flights. But these are all short term trend in the network while they are waiting for aircraft.

FLL and MCO are not the same in JetBlue's network. FLL will get attention before MCO. If you said MCO could be in trouble, I'd agree with you. But FLL was at its most number of flight ever this past holiday season. Has growth stopped in the past year or 2 as they have focused on growing Boston? Yes. The reality is NYC is their far and away most profitable focus city so they need to protect that. Boston is their most likely focus city to achieve 50% market share, so they need to protect that. FLL is going to be 3rd in importance.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 617
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:48 pm

N649DL wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
In due time, Miami will be a focus city or hub for Delta. Too much to gain not to go after the market over time. Any-size growing op Delta may have connecting to a well-established international network Latam offers is moving towards in the near-term focus-city status. LATAM's less than daily service complemented American's strategy. In couple years Miami will be a bold city on Delta's route map.


Tell that to SJC and AUS, two DL focus cities with no new service yet


I am not too sure what Delta's fanfare strategy is in announcing focus cities when they are well aware LCCs can spoil their party (unless trying to win favor in new potential facilities there in the future to help fill the holes in the route map), but Miami has a different immediate mission: LATAM
 
OB1504
Posts: 3976
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:45 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
N649DL wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
In due time, Miami will be a focus city or hub for Delta. Too much to gain not to go after the market over time. Any-size growing op Delta may have connecting to a well-established international network Latam offers is moving towards in the near-term focus-city status. LATAM's less than daily service complemented American's strategy. In couple years Miami will be a bold city on Delta's route map.


Tell that to SJC and AUS, two DL focus cities with no new service yet


I am not too sure what Delta's fanfare strategy is in announcing focus cities when they are well aware LCCs can spoil their party (unless trying to win favor in new potential facilities there in the future to help fill the holes in the route map), but Miami has a different immediate mission: LATAM


Little to no LCC competition between the United States and South America. It’s a smart call on Delta’s part to focus there.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:10 pm

enilria wrote:
Interesting they picked BOS to retaliate for MIA with B6 collateral damage to RDU
**AA BOS-IND MAY 0>1.5[0] JUN 0>1.9[0] JUL 0>1.9[0] AUG 0>1.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0]
**AA BOS-RDU MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]


Unless AA has a mole within DL Network Planning, this isn't retaliation for DL's MIA adds. AA announced these new routes early last week, with DL announcing the MIA adds several days later.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/19/2020:UA Exits CLE-DCA/LGA;DL Opens MIA Hub;B6 Cuts 9 Routes

Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:12 pm

enilria wrote:
Interesting they picked BOS to retaliate for MIA with B6 collateral damage to RDU
**AA BOS-IND MAY 0>1.5[0] JUN 0>1.9[0] JUL 0>1.9[0] AUG 0>1.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0]
**AA BOS-RDU MAY 0>4[0] JUN 0>5[0] JUL 0>5[0] AUG 0>5[0] SEP 0>5[0] OCT 0>5[0]


Unless AA has a mole within DL Network Planning, this isn't retaliation for DL's MIA adds. AA announced these flights early last week, with DL announcing the MIA flights a few days later.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.

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