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WPvsMW
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WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:03 pm

It's puzzling that even with interline and FF agreements on HA's intrastate segments, the US3 and AS did not have the growth in CONUS/HI traffic that WN has achieved.
https://hawaiianair.custhelp.com/app/an ... B6bw%3D%3D
http://investor.alaskaair.com/news-rele ... m-alliance (AS/HA agmt now discontinued)

This question and topic is not HA-bashing, but is about competitive strategy. IMO, the critical difference is that WN assumed the risk of flying interisland, even in the face of the MAX grounding, by correctly gauging demand among RR members to spend RR miles to visit Hawaii (and the demand turned out to be large enough to cushion the MAX gap). I'm sure new WN credit card enrollments in Hawaii helped reduced the risk, but the US3 and AS also have co-branded cards and NB ETOPS frames, and saw the demise of AQ and WP, but didn't act. A collateral boost may have come from new card and RR enrollments in CONUS from pax who decided to shift travel to WN after WN announced service to Hawaii.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:23 pm

What's the evidence that WN is filling inter-island flights with RR redemptions? What the evidence that WN's inter-island flying earns the same margins as alternative 48-state flying, or WN's average margin, or WN's threshhold margin? (The links you provided do nothing to advance your argument.) What's the evidence that inter-island flying by AA/DL/US/AS would be more profitable than hiving this off to HA, or equal to their best alternative flying?

The force for poorly constructed arguments is strong today.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:54 pm

The opportunity cost argument on interisland flying isn't right IMO. Take a look at the OAK-HNL-OAK schedule. Flights arrive HNL at 1205 and 1940 and leave HNL at 1015 and 1735. That's about the most optimal schedule for a carrier that doesn't operate redeyes. So the opportunity cost for interisland flying is essentially zero because the alternative is long layovers in Hawaii. And thus, as long as interisland flying covers its marginal costs, it probably makes sense. (This analysis does not account for the fact that interisland frequency may actually REDUCE the marginal costs of the mainland flights by increasing frequency at the Hawaii stations, likely permitting some efficiencies with staffing.)
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jetwet1
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:06 pm

I understand what you are thinking, but as Miflyer12 points out, one thing you are missing in your argument and was missed by many when WN announced Hawaii was the simple fact that when it comes to frequent flyers, especially in California, WN rules, the simple fact is, especially in the west, WN has a flyer base that most airlines would kill for. Okay, I am DL Diamond, I will be OW Emerald this year and yet, I will still manage to be A-list with WN, for the simple fact that hoping around cities under say a 3 hour flight is easy with them, Intra California even more so.

So what you end up with is a massive group of people who would have very happily flown out to Hawaii with UA/AA/DL/AS/HA who now either look at spending their FF miles on WN, who frankly make life very much easier as far as redemption goes than the other legacies or they are happy to fly WN because they know the product, they are loyal to the airline so why not.

There will be some on here that bury their heads in the sand, but, to go from no flights to 12 flights a day and, at least according to the CEO is far exceeding expectations. On some routes WN has taken the baseball bat to HA, OAK-HNL or OAK-OGG for example where WN went from 0% to 50% of the market in under 6 months. Now sure, there are routes that the legacies remain dominant on, LAX/SFO-HNL, but,WN's Hawaii expansion has also been crippled by the MAX fiasco, once those are flying again, who knows.

The inter-island flying is just an added bonus and really doesn't factor into the WN invasion of Hawaii.
Last edited by jetwet1 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ncflyer
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:06 pm

$39 for inter island on WN. $49 or $59 same day. They better have low marginal cost for anyone to conclude WN strategy succeeding.
 
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aloha73g
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:18 pm

One interesting aspect of the interisland flying is that it allows WN to have more crews and planes in the islands to help with service recovery when something goes wrong. They have a very limited amount of ETOPS 738s and keeping them in/near Hawai'i probably helps operational stability.

They are not anywhere close to running the volume or frequency HA does, which is fine in IMHO. WN's planes are doing 4 roundtrips each day interisland per aircraft while HA usually does 6-7.

I will say that the fare competition, and particularly the volume of additional seats WN provides is welcome for us locals, especially at peak travel times.

-Aloha!
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Aptivaboy
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:42 pm

I have read the same. As a Californian who visits the Islands several times per year, I'm glad to see Southwest there. Many times, locals have mentioned to us poor tourists how they'd love to have Southwest enter their market. I've anecedotally heard nothing but praise from the locals since they started flying there and doing interisland. In fact, in Kihei, Maui, where I usually stay and where the US, Hawaiian and Canadian flags fly in several of the shopping centers, several Canadian visitors have said that Southwest is having an impact on their fares from Canada. Apparently, a few have been able to get to the West Coast cheaply, then fly Southwest to the islands and back far more cheaply than Air Canada or perhaps Westjet, depending upon where they're coming from. Toss in the interisland service and its all good. Again, this is anecdotal but I've heard it so many times that I'm not taking it with a grain of salt.
 
tphuang
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:59 pm

I will post the numbers from Q3 soon, but needless to say this is startup stage and the yields are quite low.
 
kiowa
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:12 pm

Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:15 pm

From a standpoint of simplicity, WN started flying to Hawaii last year. Its unrealistic to expect (literal) infinite growth from the US3, AS, and HA since WN went from 0 passengers to a number greater than 0.
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johns624
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:25 pm

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!
Huh? There are plenty of mainland 4 hour 737 flights on all the majors. What makes Hawaii any different?
 
cschleic
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:27 pm

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!


You must not fly much, or anything other than short routes. With 737 NG capabilities, the city pairs being flown more than four hours by WN and others must be in the hundreds. And that's before including 757s. Try MIA / FLL - SEA...that pushes 7+ hours.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:39 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I have read the same. As a Californian who visits the Islands several times per year, I'm glad to see Southwest there. Many times, locals have mentioned to us poor tourists how they'd love to have Southwest enter their market. I've anecedotally heard nothing but praise from the locals since they started flying there and doing interisland. In fact, in Kihei, Maui, where I usually stay and where the US, Hawaiian and Canadian flags fly in several of the shopping centers, several Canadian visitors have said that Southwest is having an impact on their fares from Canada. Apparently, a few have been able to get to the West Coast cheaply, then fly Southwest to the islands and back far more cheaply than Air Canada or perhaps Westjet, depending upon where they're coming from. Toss in the interisland service and its all good. Again, this is anecdotal but I've heard it so many times that I'm not taking it with a grain of salt.


I’ve been in Hawaii exactly 12 months now and my anecdotal experience has been the same on all corners of Oahu and on every outer island I’ve visited. But I was told here on anet after two months I didn’t know what I was talking about. While preparing for the move I honestly expected the worst, especially because of what was perpetuated here. Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:37 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
What's the evidence that WN is filling inter-island flights with RR redemptions?


Only anecdotal, asking families with heavy sunburn if they are on award tickets. Maybe a third say yes ... I don't ask if ALL the family members are on award tickets.

MIflyer12 wrote:
What the evidence that WN's inter-island flying earns the same margins as alternative 48-state flying, or WN's average margin, or WN's threshhold margin?


TMK, WN doesn't release margin data by city pairs or region. We just have the CEO's comments that Hawaii service has exceeded expectations, and expansion of Hawaii service will continue (esp. after the MAX gap closes).


MIflyer12 wrote:
What's the evidence that inter-island flying by AA/DL/US/AS would be more profitable than hiving this off to HA, or equal to their best alternative flying?


TMK, AA/DL/US/AS don't release margin or yield data by city pairs or region.

The discussion topic I intended was, in a nutshell, how strategic factors (RR enrollment, card enrollment, redemption opportunities, the WN value proposition (free checked bags, no reserved seats, above average seat pitch, etc.) led WN to start a full (TPAC and interisland) Hawaii service when the US3 and AS came to a different conclusion.

ADDED: And did the weights accorded those factors in planning prove to be accurate after Hawaii service was launched? My surmise is that RR redemptions from the huge FF base on the W. Coast may be been the highest weighted factor on a NETWORK level* during the planning stage, enough to sustain forecasted negative yields in Hawaii service during startup. I also surmise that uptake by Hawaii-based pax was far higher than forecast, strong enough to offset the MAX gap (which nobody saw coming), and that RR and card enrollment were stronger than forecasted.

*On a NETWORK level, adding Hawaii service would induce more pax to fly WN between mainland city pairs (see comments above) given a choice of WN and other carriers.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:03 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:44 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.


Aloha spirit is real. It's a big reason pax from the E. Coast fly to Hawaii rather than the Caribbean.

(BTW, it's "Neighbor Islands"). Saying "outer islands"... locals will think you are going to Midway or some other place "out there". ;)
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:02 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.


(BTW, it's "Neighbor Islands"). Saying "outer islands"... locals will think you are going to Midway or some other place "out there". ;)


You’re right, my bad. My brain couldn’t think of the word I was looking for and went with the other common one as if it was interchangeable. :banghead: Thanks!
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:22 am

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!


Stop at 4 hours of flight time to or from HNL and you're in the water.

johns624 wrote:
There are plenty of mainland 4 hour 737 flights on all the majors. What makes Hawaii any different?

The difference that makes 5 to 6 hours (depending on westerlies) TPAC on a WN 738 more bearable is seat pitch in Y.
 
SeaDoo
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:07 am

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!



Having flown 767, 757, and 737 to Hawaii, I would love to catch (an only) 4/hour flight. :)
 
ericm2031
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:37 am

It's pretty clear from this discussion, reductions by other carriers (mainly AS so far), and many 'anecdotes' that WN is having a big impact on Hawaii travel.

WN doesn't seem to care whether or not award fares are being booked to Hawaii or not, thus they still have zero blackout dates.

Locals seems to be embracing...and more importantly...using the competition. WN was started as a short-haul carrier, and is going back to its roots and applying that to inter-island travel.

As much as I like AS, they are really getting squeezed everywhere (WN to Hawaii, DL at SEA, etc). They don't have enough power to really compete in LAX/SFO against the majors (and HA)...can't compete with WN in SMF/OAK. Now we wait and see what happens with SAN/SJC...both are big focus cities for AS/WN but WN is stronger in both. AS has been so successful in recent years with West Coast to Hawaii routes, but I ultimately think they will have to cut back to just PDX/SEA-Hawaii...if they're lucky they might be able to hold onto SJC/SAN-Hawaii.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:14 am

Post-acquisition of VX (Dec. 2016), why didn't AS rebuild its network to focus on Hawaii, to steal the march on WN? AS' network planners certainly had the data they needed, and ops had the frames ... but AS didn't act. AS could have done exactly what WN did, but didn't, and now faces a slippery slope. I'm not bashing AS, but IMO it boils down to CEO vision, balancing risk/return. WN computed risk/return differently than AS, and launched WN's Hawaii service.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:10 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Post-acquisition of VX (Dec. 2016), why didn't AS rebuild its network to focus on Hawaii, to steal the march on WN? AS' network planners certainly had the data they needed, and ops had the frames ... but AS didn't act. AS could have done exactly what WN did, but didn't, and now faces a slippery slope. I'm not bashing AS, but IMO it boils down to CEO vision, balancing risk/return. WN computed risk/return differently than AS, and launched WN's Hawaii service.


Maybe they didn’t want to lose money. lol. Remember a few carriers have come and gone doing inter-island flying. Southwest is much larger than Alaska. They can more easily experiment and prop op money losing operations they deem beneficial to the whole operation.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:30 am

True, and optimizing the network (even with negative yield on certain segments) for overall network profitability is the art of network planning... but it's much easier with 4th or 5th gen NP software than with 3rd gen. Since I left network planning, IDK what gen any operator is using. Back in my NP days, DL always had the latest and greatest with lots of in-house tweaks, AA had failed to invest, and UA was somewhere in the middle.

WN's famous "no red-eyes" res system limitation doesn't mean WN's NP software has the same functional limitation, only that a "no red-eyes" rule is applied in the NP software.
 
77H
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:13 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.


Aloha spirit is real. It's a big reason pax from the E. Coast fly to Hawaii rather than the Caribbean.

(BTW, it's "Neighbor Islands"). Saying "outer islands"... locals will think you are going to Midway or some other place "out there". ;)


I don’t know a single local who would confuse outer islands with the Leeward islands like Midway. Neighbor islands and outer islands can be used interchangeably although “outer islands” is more of an old school term.

77H
 
tphuang
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:27 pm

Here are the numbers from Q3 to think about. Again, keep in mind it's possible that some of these numbers are affected by initial HI service launch sale offered by WN where they are deep discounting on some routes. As we look at comparison vs a year ago, keep in mind that 2018 was a lower yielding year compared to 2017.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM
OAKHNL 2409 AS 16661 259.64 257.34 169.9 108 90.80% 233.65 0.0970
OAKHNL 2409 HA 31103 281.42 285.44 203.7 175 87.23% 248.99 0.1034
OAKHNL 2409 WN 60028 234.08 234.24 175.0 369 92.96% 217.75 0.0904
In terms of market share, WN is the dominant player here now, but in terms of yield, it's trailing both AS and HA here. Keep in mind a year ago HA yield here was 272 and AS was 249, so a noticeable drop for both despite HA moving to smaller aircraft here.

SJCHNL 2417 AS 23802 271.40 270.14 177.2 148 90.74% 245.14 0.1014
SJCHNL 2417 HA 33324 289.69 290.38 192.8 185 93.40% 271.23 0.1122
SJCHNL 2417 WN 30047 230.00 226.70 175.0 185 92.81% 210.40 0.0870
This one is quite brutal for WN. They trail both AS and HA by quite a bit in yield here. Again, HA yield actually increased slightly from a year ago as it moved to the much smaller A321NEO. AS yield is down slightly vs 1 year ago. Doesn't look like WN made much of a dent here on the existing players.

SFOHNL 2398 AS 27431 291.49 288.94 175.5 182 85.88% 248.15
SFOHNL 2398 HA 45073 297.96 296.40 278.0 175 92.65% 274.61
SFOHNL 2398 SY 11718 218.98 218.53 188.8 72 86.19% 188.35
SFOHNL 2398 UA 241295 329.46 327.91 290.4 984 84.45% 276.93
I also brought SFO here to see what kind of effect it has on the other bay area airport. SFO is basically flat vs a year ago even with the additional SY capacity here.

OAKOGG 2349 AS 23711 257.00 257.10 159.0 184 81.05% 208.37 0.0887
OAKOGG 2349 HA 30990 276.43 273.92 189.0 183 89.60% 245.43 0.1045
OAKOGG 2349 WN 56968 221.78 221.28 175.0 367 88.70% 196.27 0.0836
Again, WN has managed to achieve dominant market share here but on pretty poor yield. HA's yield again went up due to having to fill a smaller plane in A321NEO. AS yield here is down quite a bit.

SJCOGG 2355 AS 19662 282.39 281.57 159.4 147 83.92% 236.29 0.1003
SJCOGG 2355 HA 30785 271.09 270.01 189.0 183 89.01% 240.33 0.1021
SJCOGG 2355 WN 28095 213.93 213.85 175.0 183 87.73% 187.61 0.0797
So this is especially poor for WN. AS is down a little bit vs a year ago, but nothing too terrible. HA is up a little bit vs a year ago.

SFOOGG 2338 AS 21348 269.87 269.31 159.0 184 72.97% 196.52
SFOOGG 2338 HA 40140 286.18 284.04 252.3 180 88.39% 251.07
SFOOGG 2338 UA 136640 325.19 325.19 209.6 879 74.16% 241.17
This is actually down a little bit vs a year ago as all the LF went down for every carrier.

So, it looks like HNL capacity is absorbed a lot better than OGG.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:06 pm

SFO-OGG really stands out as a poor performer for AS, especially compared to SJC-OGG.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:43 pm

I’ve been in Hawaii exactly 12 months now and my anecdotal experience has been the same on all corners of Oahu and on every outer island I’ve visited. But I was told here on anet after two months I didn’t know what I was talking about. While preparing for the move I honestly expected the worst, especially because of what was perpetuated here. Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.


Glad to hear that things are going well for WN folks. I usually fly UAL or HA because WN hasn't started flights to the Islands down south here in Southern California, yet. Hopefully, they will soon.

I really think that if the airlines in the Hawaiian market really want to steal a march on the competition, they could perhaps examine more Southern California airports. I'm not silly enough to suggest SNA, although a lot of us would - pie in the sky - love to see it. But, very few SAN flights go to places other than OGG and HNL. ONT was serviced seasonally by HA back in the nineties and early 2000s, if memory serves, using their DC-10s and early 767s. Currently, those of us in the LA Basin, the Inland Empire, and most of Orange County and Santa Barbara County don't have many choices except LAX. I have to believe that there's a market for other than LAX flights, at least seasonally. Perhaps HA's presence at LGB could be beefed up, or a few more SAN flights may occur.

Anyway, its a dream. The convenience of not having to brave the LAX traffic and insanity would be wonderful.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:44 pm

77H wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
Thought maybe we would find trouble both on and off airport property but nope, nothing but positive feedback since day one.


Aloha spirit is real. It's a big reason pax from the E. Coast fly to Hawaii rather than the Caribbean.

(BTW, it's "Neighbor Islands"). Saying "outer islands"... locals will think you are going to Midway or some other place "out there". ;)


I don’t know a single local who would confuse outer islands with the Leeward islands like Midway. Neighbor islands and outer islands can be used interchangeably although “outer islands” is more of an old school term.

77H


I think we move in different circles.
I invite you to search both terms on
https://www.staradvertiser.com/search/o ... nds%5C%22&

All the hits on "outer islands" are about North Carolina, other places in Polynesia, Canada, etc.
All the hits on "neighbor islands" are about Hawaii.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:56 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
I have to believe that there's a market for other than LAX flights, at least seasonally. ...Anyway, its a dream. The convenience of not having to brave the LAX traffic and insanity would be wonderful.


Wait for the MAX gap to close. Other than LGB, the LA Basin is WN's for the asking. AS is too distracted by SEA and the Bay Area. HA could have entered secondary SoCal markets, esp. ONT, since AQ left, but probably utilization factors put HA's frames elsewhere.

I think WN will play the OAK.SMF strategy in SoCal, IOW, WN will not start Hawaii service from LAX, but from other SoCal airports.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:15 pm

tph, thanks for the numbers... (from OAG, FlightGlobal? I don't think bts.gov provides such granularity).

I will miss the A332 lie-flats to CONUS on HA. See pax comments on HA's downgauge to the A321....
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Hawai ... 321neo.php

"Worst experience I've ever had in flight." Not a single positive comment about CONUS flights on the A321. Cramped seat pitch and width, thin seat padding, ... HA's LCC cabins to CONUS and interisland make WN's cabins very attractive, esp. TPAC. Without HA's switch to LCC cabins, IMO WN's launch of Hawaii service would have had much slower growth. If you are in Y, every inch of seat pitch and seat width is a BIG deal. The "Y experience" is part of the WN "value proposition", but I doubt that WN planner knew how important it would be, even if the planners knew HA was reconfiguring HA's Y cabins to add seats.
 
tphuang
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:12 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
tph, thanks for the numbers... (from OAG, FlightGlobal? I don't think bts.gov provides such granularity).

I will miss the A332 lie-flats to CONUS on HA. See pax comments on HA's downgauge to the A321....
https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Hawai ... 321neo.php

"Worst experience I've ever had in flight." Not a single positive comment about CONUS flights on the A321. Cramped seat pitch and width, thin seat padding, ... HA's LCC cabins to CONUS and interisland make WN's cabins very attractive, esp. TPAC. Without HA's switch to LCC cabins, IMO WN's launch of Hawaii service would have had much slower growth. If you are in Y, every inch of seat pitch and seat width is a BIG deal. The "Y experience" is part of the WN "value proposition", but I doubt that WN planner knew how important it would be, even if the planners knew HA was reconfiguring HA's Y cabins to add seats.


BTS, I take the raw data for this. I think there is a lot of growth ahead for WN, but longer ranged flights definitely seems to be tougher in their model. A lot of the premium HA gets on these routes are from the FC cabin or even Y+. It's hard to say how exactly WN judge these routes.

Maybe they view it important as in retaining their customer base in CA or as RR redemption routes. I'm not sure. I would imagine over time, they'd expect higher fare numbers than what they saw early on.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:34 pm

IMO WN's Hawaii service has made HA even more dependent on the F cabin. HA's replacement of A332 lie-flats with A321 recliners in F on some city pairs (e.g., HNL/SEA, HNL/SFO) is probably causing attrition in F traffic (pax looks for a better value).
 
ericm2031
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:10 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
I have to believe that there's a market for other than LAX flights, at least seasonally. ...Anyway, its a dream. The convenience of not having to brave the LAX traffic and insanity would be wonderful.


Wait for the MAX gap to close. Other than LGB, the LA Basin is WN's for the asking. AS is too distracted by SEA and the Bay Area. HA could have entered secondary SoCal markets, esp. ONT, since AQ left, but probably utilization factors put HA's frames elsewhere.

I think WN will play the OAK.SMF strategy in SoCal, IOW, WN will not start Hawaii service from LAX, but from other SoCal airports.


I agree with you about LAX, at least for the near future, but maybe once T1E opens. BUR and SNA have runways limitations and I don’t see ONT and/or LGB being what they’ll resort to (at least not solely). The SoCal market is too big for WN to ignore and funnel up North to connect.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:26 pm

Agree. WN may not launch Hawaii service from LAX, but they need to serve Hawaii ex-LAX in the long term. First, though, the low hanging fruit, esp. ONT., even less than daily. Leisure and VFR can accommodate <7x, and avoid the "parking lot" commute.
 
Utah744
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:37 pm

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!

4 hours? Have they bumped the speed of a 737 up a LOT?
You are never too old to learn something stupid
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:36 pm

Today's announcement that the MAX may not fly until well into summer means no WN expansion to speak of.

And a several years ago I flew Hawaii - back in 767 days, and it was wonderfully comfortable - as always.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:41 pm

Utah744 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!

4 hours? Have they bumped the speed of a 737 up a LOT?


No, but WN now has an ETOPS seaplane.... repainted the restored Sikorsky S-43 at Pima. /humour
https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-o ... photograph
Inter-island Airways became HA in 1941.
https://worldairlinenews.com/category/i ... ys-hawaii/
 
scoping2008
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:39 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Post-acquisition of VX (Dec. 2016), why didn't AS rebuild its network to focus on Hawaii, to steal the march on WN? AS' network planners certainly had the data they needed, and ops had the frames ... but AS didn't act. AS could have done exactly what WN did, but didn't, and now faces a slippery slope. I'm not bashing AS, but IMO it boils down to CEO vision, balancing risk/return. WN computed risk/return differently than AS, and launched WN's Hawaii service.


AS network planners are smart. That's why they didn't do what you seem to propose. Alaska is quite happy with its Hawaii portfolio and still maintains the most flights from the West Coast to Hawaii.

WN may have some success in the interisland market because of its size & resources. Time will tell. But, it can be brutal --- ask the former employees of Aloha Airlines, Go!, and Island Air.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:56 am

No argument that AS and WN (and HA) network planners are smart, and time will tell, with some more clues next week.
https://newsroom.alaskaair.com/2020-01- ... al-results
http://investors.southwest.com/news-and ... -210223381
 
77H
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:32 am

WPvsMW wrote:
77H wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:

Aloha spirit is real. It's a big reason pax from the E. Coast fly to Hawaii rather than the Caribbean.

(BTW, it's "Neighbor Islands"). Saying "outer islands"... locals will think you are going to Midway or some other place "out there". ;)


I don’t know a single local who would confuse outer islands with the Leeward islands like Midway. Neighbor islands and outer islands can be used interchangeably although “outer islands” is more of an old school term.

77H


I think we move in different circles.
I invite you to search both terms on
https://www.staradvertiser.com/search/o ... nds%5C%22&

All the hits on "outer islands" are about North Carolina, other places in Polynesia, Canada, etc.
All the hits on "neighbor islands" are about Hawaii.


Well I don’t talk to google, I talk to people, to include transplants, kama aina and kanaka maoli, both professionally and personally and I have heard the term both “outer islands” and “neighbor islands” used as I have used them interchangeably for many many years and have never had anyone become confused as to what was being discussed.

But anywho, as you said, perhaps different circles. Back on topic.

77H
 
WPvsMW
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:12 am

The context of my comment was a captain or FO addressing enplaned pax (given the poster). I probably should have PM'd him (or her). Mea culpa. In that context, however, I think the Star-Advertiser/Advertiser/Star-Bulletin database reflects appropriate usage that is commonly understood.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:51 pm

kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!

An economy seat on an airliner is an economy seat. The only difference usually is seat width; admittedly, the 737 has narrower seats than some. But there are many other aircraft that have just as narrow seats, including some widebodies. That being said, what’s so terrible about four hours on a 737? To me, as I can happily manage with the seat width it doesn’t much matter whether I am on a 737 or an A380. Except I hate the window seats in the A380; the sidewalls are so far away and the windows are so tiny. Having recently had a 13 hour flight in an A380 I would have preferred to be on a 737.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
WNagent310
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:28 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Agree. WN may not launch Hawaii service from LAX, but they need to serve Hawaii ex-LAX in the long term. First, though, the low hanging fruit, esp. ONT., even less than daily. Leisure and VFR can accommodate <7x, and avoid the "parking lot" commute.


At WN, we’re currently running a reduced schedule at LAX with 112 daily peak for the winter schedule as of right now due to the MAX grounding and overall demand. Once it’s back up and running, we do plan on hitting the daily max of 135-140 daily departures.

HDQ has stated that there is no intention of starting Hawaii service from LAX due to gate availability limitations. Until Concourse 0 is built, no Hawaii service for WN at LAX for the foreseeable future.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:54 pm

WNagent310 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Agree. WN may not launch Hawaii service from LAX, but they need to serve Hawaii ex-LAX in the long term. First, though, the low hanging fruit, esp. ONT., even less than daily. Leisure and VFR can accommodate <7x, and avoid the "parking lot" commute.


At WN, we’re currently running a reduced schedule at LAX with 112 daily peak for the winter schedule as of right now due to the MAX grounding and overall demand. Once it’s back up and running, we do plan on hitting the daily max of 135-140 daily departures.

HDQ has stated that there is no intention of starting Hawaii service from LAX due to gate availability limitations. Until Concourse 0 is built, no Hawaii service for WN at LAX for the foreseeable future.

I think ONT and possibly LGB depending on how many of the 12 slots they get will be WN SoCal/LA Gate way to Hawaii.
ONT and LGB while not as exciting as LAX will still drawl the catchment from LA area Rapid Reward base customers. That don't want to fly to OAK,SJC or SMF to get to Hawaii.

Due to gate issues at LAX I think it makes LAX the prime place to launch Red eyes from Hawaii until T0 opens.
Have HNL/OGG/KOA all arrive around 05:30
Late night returns leave at 20:30 to Hawaii.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
11C
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:38 pm

SEPilot wrote:
kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!

An economy seat on an airliner is an economy seat. The only difference usually is seat width; admittedly, the 737 has narrower seats than some. But there are many other aircraft that have just as narrow seats, including some widebodies. That being said, what’s so terrible about four hours on a 737? To me, as I can happily manage with the seat width it doesn’t much matter whether I am on a 737 or an A380. Except I hate the window seats in the A380; the sidewalls are so far away and the windows are so tiny. Having recently had a 13 hour flight in an A380 I would have preferred to be on a 737.


I have ridden on WN often, usually flights around one hour. When I buy tickets to Hawaii, it’s always on Hawaiian, on a 321NEO. The difference in comfort is tremendous. Admittedly, my WN trips are usually on -700’s, but I have ridden on -800’s, and didn’t feel any less cramped. To each his own, but I think the Hawaiian cabin is much more comfortable.
 
WNagent310
Posts: 61
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:12 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
WNagent310 wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Agree. WN may not launch Hawaii service from LAX, but they need to serve Hawaii ex-LAX in the long term. First, though, the low hanging fruit, esp. ONT., even less than daily. Leisure and VFR can accommodate <7x, and avoid the "parking lot" commute.


At WN, we’re currently running a reduced schedule at LAX with 112 daily peak for the winter schedule as of right now due to the MAX grounding and overall demand. Once it’s back up and running, we do plan on hitting the daily max of 135-140 daily departures.

HDQ has stated that there is no intention of starting Hawaii service from LAX due to gate availability limitations. Until Concourse 0 is built, no Hawaii service for WN at LAX for the foreseeable future.

I think ONT and possibly LGB depending on how many of the 12 slots they get will be WN SoCal/LA Gate way to Hawaii.
ONT and LGB while not as exciting as LAX will still drawl the catchment from LA area Rapid Reward base customers. That don't want to fly to OAK,SJC or SMF to get to Hawaii.

Due to gate issues at LAX I think it makes LAX the prime place to launch Red eyes from Hawaii until T0 opens.
Have HNL/OGG/KOA all arrive around 05:30
Late night returns leave at 20:30 to Hawaii.

Flyguy


I can see WN launching Red-Eyes especially since our new res system is now capable of overnight Red-Eye flying. And being that LAX as well as ONT are the only SoCal airports that don’t have curfew limitations it sounds good on paper. Only problem that is presented with that is still the operational limitations of LAX at T1. Overnight, once all RONs are in there is still no room for any open gates at night even with the reduced schedule. We have to tow/park 2-3 aircraft to West Remote in which we hold a spot for only 2 aircraft each night and on most nights we have more terminators than there are gates at T1. On most nights we’ve had to tow/park aircraft on the Odd side alley Gate 9-15 Overnight with permission from LAWA. We also have been renting a spot at (QF4A) which is the Qantas Maintenance hanger at WAMA only when QF has space for us. Point being, there is just no room for anything to build on here at LAX especially for WN Hawaii flying.

With the potential slot openings at LGB, I can see us opening a Hawaii gateway over there to enter the SoCal market.
 
bob75013
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:15 pm

11C wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
kiowa wrote:
Intra-island on a 737 works but back and forth to the mainland is painfull. 4 hours on a 737. Yuk!!

An economy seat on an airliner is an economy seat. The only difference usually is seat width; admittedly, the 737 has narrower seats than some. But there are many other aircraft that have just as narrow seats, including some widebodies. That being said, what’s so terrible about four hours on a 737? To me, as I can happily manage with the seat width it doesn’t much matter whether I am on a 737 or an A380. Except I hate the window seats in the A380; the sidewalls are so far away and the windows are so tiny. Having recently had a 13 hour flight in an A380 I would have preferred to be on a 737.


I have ridden on WN often, usually flights around one hour. When I buy tickets to Hawaii, it’s always on Hawaiian, on a 321NEO. The difference in comfort is tremendous. Admittedly, my WN trips are usually on -700’s, but I have ridden on -800’s, and didn’t feel any less cramped. To each his own, but I think the Hawaiian cabin is much more comfortable.


from seatguru

WN 738 seat pitch 32-33 seat width 17
WN 737 seat pitch 31 seat width 17

HA321neo seat pitch 30 seat width 17.3 (economy)

facts matter
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:18 pm

i'm sure someone will start a separate thread, but WSJ is reporting that FAA improperly 'lowered the bar' for WN's ETOPS approval:

U.S. air-safety regulators likely acted improperly in the way they authorized Southwest Airlines Co. LUV +0.09% to begin flights between California and Hawaii last year, according to the main government agency that handles federal whistleblower complaints.

The preliminary conclusion by the Office of Special Counsel pertains to a Federal Aviation Administration employee’s allegations that agency managers gave the carrier preferential treatment by rushing the approval process and cutting corners in other ways. The counsel’s staff “found a substantial likelihood of wrongdoing” by FAA employees, according to one document, among several documents and emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The inquiry hasn’t been made public.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/faa-lowere ... 1579712828

the story isn't behind the WSJ paywall at the time i'm posting this, but that will likely change soon.
 
bob75013
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:25 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
i'm sure someone will start a separate thread, but WSJ is reporting that FAA improperly 'lowered the bar' for WN's ETOPS approval:

U.S. air-safety regulators likely acted improperly in the way they authorized Southwest Airlines Co. LUV +0.09% to begin flights between California and Hawaii last year, according to the main government agency that handles federal whistleblower complaints.

The preliminary conclusion by the Office of Special Counsel pertains to a Federal Aviation Administration employee’s allegations that agency managers gave the carrier preferential treatment by rushing the approval process and cutting corners in other ways. The counsel’s staff “found a substantial likelihood of wrongdoing” by FAA employees, according to one document, among several documents and emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The inquiry hasn’t been made public.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/faa-lowere ... 1579712828

the story isn't behind the WSJ paywall at the time i'm posting this, but that will likely change soon.


So, why didn't you start a separate thread as this has nothing to do with "WN vs the majors?"
 
formeraa
Posts: 32
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Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:29 pm

A couple of notes:

1. HA did in fact fly ONT-HNL some years back. I was at terminal 4 at ONT and saw their gate. It apparently didn't work out well in the 763 days. Perhaps the 321neo would work better?

2. As for profitability of Hawaii operations, WN may well be applying different criteria from the other carriers. First of all, WN's costs are generally lower -- so that may help profitability. Second, there is always the factor of "using FF points for Hawaii trips" which has some allure to the airlines. When I worked at AA in the early 90's, Hawaii was NOT a profitable destination -- but the need to allow redemption of FF miles to Hawaii kept us in the market. Basically, our goal was to cover the marginal costs of the Hawaii routes and we had our HNL call center take Japan calls (since there are many Japanese speakers in Hawaii).
 
rnav2dlrey
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:10 am

Re: WN's Hawaii "win" vs. majors/HA partnering

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:36 pm

bob75013 wrote:

So, why didn't you start a separate thread as this has nothing to do with "WN vs the majors?"


if you read the entire title of this thread, you might have a better idea why i posted the news here. hint: the word "hawaii".

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