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Ishrion
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Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:19 am

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1219398802634878976

We're on AA super-long-haul route announce alert


https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1215126729586610176

BNE rumors bubbling


AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?
 
Gemuser
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:33 am

MEL-DFW first!

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chepos
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:33 am

I would bet on LAX-BNE, DFW would be out of left field.


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Ishrion
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:35 am

Gemuser wrote:
MEL-DFW first!

Gemuser


Would likely be a Qantas 789 route given it's 8,992 miles, 17 miles shorter than PER-LHR.
 
ABEguy
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:07 am

AAL reports Q4 earnings on 1/23. If there’s anything to this rumor, guessing it’ll be announced then.
 
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chepos
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:08 am

This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


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Pudelhund
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:23 am

AA does JFK-SYD with little fanfare. Qantas btfo.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:25 am

Ishrion wrote:

AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?



LAX is the elsewhere. If you are not sending the most capacity you can spare to LAX, there is not a point in offering a global network. The same obviously applies to NYC & LHR.

AA may attempt to add that, but QF are in no place to cut frequency. It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network. Taking traffic away from that would be a pretty stunning misuse of resources, considering the cost to put that there.

I do not know where people get this notion, but not every frequency upgrade/add at AA needs to come at the expense of the OW Betters. It is not even historically the case that that happens with any notable frequency.



chepos wrote:
This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


No, you are correct. That is true. But from a media standpoint, I would not expect them to make that distinction.

I do not see anything that specifically calls out Australia in this link.

This is throwing darts at a wall, but looking at all the pieces (not many), the most probable possibility is DFW-DEL. 789, AA metal... plastic.
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maps4ltd
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:41 am

I'm betting LAX-BNE.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:43 am

PHX-SYD :stirthepot:
When wasn't America great?


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timberwolf24
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:52 am

ORD-DEL/BOM LOL
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
 
Halophila
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:58 am

I’m betting PHL-SYD
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PHLspecial
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:04 am

Halophila wrote:
I’m betting PHL-SYD


Not to say it's impossible because of my bias towards PHL butttt the 789 ain't making it. AA A350ULR :stirthepot:
 
Detroit313
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:06 am

Yaaaas!
 
747megatop
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:15 am

chepos wrote:
This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


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Yeah, in the 2000s this would have been considered ULH; now it is a walk in the park compared to the real big boys of ULH (PER-LHR, EWR-SIN and the prposed JFK-SYD, LHR-SYD)
 
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FlyThiz
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:31 am

I was stunned to find out they’re flying to CHC from LAX. I didn’t know until I saw the billboard at LAX. I hope it’s an interesting pick.
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Sydscott
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:47 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?



LAX is the elsewhere. If you are not sending the most capacity you can spare to LAX, there is not a point in offering a global network. The same obviously applies to NYC & LHR.

AA may attempt to add that, but QF are in no place to cut frequency. It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network. Taking traffic away from that would be a pretty stunning misuse of resources, considering the cost to put that there.

I do not know where people get this notion, but not every frequency upgrade/add at AA needs to come at the expense of the OW Betters. It is not even historically the case that that happens with any notable frequency.


Note that QF is currently flying BNE-LAX 13 times a week due to it being peak period. It goes back to 10pw once School holidays are over so it's an easy one for AA to takeover 3 to 6 frequencies per week from QF and means that AA, with a much larger long haul fleet, can flex capacity up and down as necessary while QF maintains a year round daily schedule which continues to JFK.

That also potentially allows QF to defer ordering more 789's as the 789 on QF55 can be deployed elsewhere in the network.

So all in all if the rumour is true it's probably good for both sides.
 
zkncj
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:48 am

FlyThiz wrote:
I was stunned to find out they’re flying to CHC from LAX. I didn’t know until I saw the billboard at LAX. I hope it’s an interesting pick.


The QF/AA alliance agreement, used starting new routes as something to get it over the line.

Same was the NZ/UA alliance has seen new routes, launched.

Basically to get approval, you need to put an few sweeteners into the deal.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:31 am

It's my understanding that once QF start BNE-SFO/ORD, BNE-LAX Will be reduced back to daily. I can see AA putting on 3x Weekly seasonal service over the NW to complement the existing QF15/16.
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Tdan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:22 am

Guaranteed it will not be anything in AU/NZ. That announcement was made in late October for CHC and AKLDFW. Too soon for another addition.
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ryanflyer
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:34 am

Deleted
 
moa999
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:04 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network.


Can't see the LAX-JFK service continuing. While it's an extension of the BNE flight, the majority of the load comes from the SYD and MEL A380s that are timed in the same schedule.

With Sunrise direct flights just won't be the numbers to fill it, BNE pax will be pushed onto AA connections.
 
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:15 am

Tdan wrote:
Guaranteed it will not be anything in AU/NZ. That announcement was made in late October for CHC and AKLDFW. Too soon for another addition.


I wouldn’t agree, those NZ routes are actual new routes where as a LAX-MEL/BNE while new for AA are part of the JV and QF already operates them so just adding or transferring some capacity to AA.

I’m not saying this it is BNE as i have no idea.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:22 am

Super long haul sounds more like BNE-DFW, as I can’t see AA’s 789 having the range for MEL-DFW.

More LAX flying will just be a let down really.
 
behramjee
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:57 pm

I would like to see AA penetrate into Africa further by announcing DFW-LOS nonstop 3-4 weekly using a B788.

The p2p market alone is 34,000 round trip pax annually + there is another 78,000 bound to IAH + 42,000 to California + 20,000 to ORD. In addition, they can easily stimulate DFW-LOS by an incremental +30% p2p. The flying time is approximately 12:15 and the fare is US$645 one way with YQ so not bad at all. This service can sustain itself easily with just Texas and California bound traffic !

FYI over the past 12 months, just the total USA-LOS-USA (not including ABV/PHC/KAN) p2p demand was 472,000 round trip pax ! From August onwards, DL is increasing both ATL-LOS + JFK-LOS to 6 weekly each respectively using an A332.
 
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:45 pm

FlyThiz wrote:
I was stunned to find out they’re flying to CHC from LAX. I didn’t know until I saw the billboard at LAX. I hope it’s an interesting pick.


It is. It's seasonal. So it aint year round and it aint likely to be. AA is dipping its toes in the water... and if history points right they will take them out again.
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NZ321
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:47 pm

vhqpa wrote:
It's my understanding that once QF start BNE-SFO/ORD, BNE-LAX Will be reduced back to daily. I can see AA putting on 3x Weekly seasonal service over the NW to complement the existing QF15/16.


This is consistent with recent announcements :)
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NZ321
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:50 pm

behramjee wrote:
I would like to see AA penetrate into Africa further by announcing DFW-LOS nonstop 3-4 weekly using a B788.

The p2p market alone is 34,000 round trip pax annually + there is another 78,000 bound to IAH + 42,000 to California + 20,000 to ORD. In addition, they can easily stimulate DFW-LOS by an incremental +30% p2p. The flying time is approximately 12:15 and the fare is US$645 one way with YQ so not bad at all. This service can sustain itself easily with just Texas and California bound traffic !

FYI over the past 12 months, just the total USA-LOS-USA (not including ABV/PHC/KAN) p2p demand was 472,000 round trip pax ! From August onwards, DL is increasing both ATL-LOS + JFK-LOS to 6 weekly each respectively using an A332.



It's possible. AA is extending its reach into Africa (just) with its new service to CAS. LOS Could be another destination to watch for, but somehow I am not so sure. DL has upped and downed frequency according to seasonal demand for a while.
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x1234
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:55 pm

I say DFW-BNE or MIA-JNB.
 
mhkansan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:04 pm

I think AA needs more Africa service. While more to Australia would be fun, I am really hoping for a CPT or JNB announcement. I think that it makes sense with the BA / Comair connections in South Africa.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:48 pm

PHL-BOM
 
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:49 pm

DFW-ACC-LOS
 
Kbud
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:52 pm

American is stopping all international flights out of ORD and moving them to DFW...
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:42 pm

NZ321 wrote:
behramjee wrote:
I would like to see AA penetrate into Africa further by announcing DFW-LOS nonstop 3-4 weekly using a B788.

The p2p market alone is 34,000 round trip pax annually + there is another 78,000 bound to IAH + 42,000 to California + 20,000 to ORD. In addition, they can easily stimulate DFW-LOS by an incremental +30% p2p. The flying time is approximately 12:15 and the fare is US$645 one way with YQ so not bad at all. This service can sustain itself easily with just Texas and California bound traffic !

FYI over the past 12 months, just the total USA-LOS-USA (not including ABV/PHC/KAN) p2p demand was 472,000 round trip pax ! From August onwards, DL is increasing both ATL-LOS + JFK-LOS to 6 weekly each respectively using an A332.



It's possible. AA is extending its reach into Africa (just) with its new service to CAS. LOS Could be another destination to watch for, but somehow I am not so sure. DL has upped and downed frequency according to seasonal demand for a while.


Aside from Australia:

-I think we'd see UA back on IAH-LOS before AA dipped their toes into Nigeria, but I could be wrong.
-SAA clearly isn't healthy, so I could see AA jumping into the JNB market from MIA or (less likely) PHL, CLT, or JFK. If they're really agressive, maybe they try to push SAA off JFK.
-Speaking of SAA, they also dropped IAD-DKR; maybe DKR becomes AA's first sub-Saharan market from PHL or CLT (PHL can be done with a 752)-still, not so likely.
-Asia yields are in the toilet in general-this makes some sort of SIN, TPE, or secondary China/Japan route less likely.
-A return to India? AA's now the only one of the big 3 not there now with DL's return to BOM; maybe DFW-DEL?
 
jfk777
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:45 pm

Expansion in Australia is great for AA since they reduced their presence in China. AA sadly killed their Chicago to Shanghai and Peking flights in late 2018. While their are many reasons attributable to this, the 787-8 has to be one of the reasons. Those planes had 28 Business Class seats, they took out 8 J class seats to put in 28 Y+ seats.

I am all for those 28 Premium Economy seats but why ditch the J class seats and not ditch some plain Y class seats ? 28 J class seats & 28 PE seats minus X economy seats sounds like the right number to me. AA also needs to expand their 787-9 J class seats to a similar number like UA or BA, currently they have 30 J class seats on the 787-9. Some 787-9 flights are 15 hours so their is demand for Business Class.
 
babastud
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:47 pm

AA is moving its Pacific Hub to MIA
 
airboss787
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:48 pm

Kbud wrote:
American is stopping all international flights out of ORD and moving them to DFW...


Is it April 1st already ? :mrgreen: :lol:
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ryby92
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:26 pm

Kbud wrote:
American is stopping all international flights out of ORD and moving them to DFW...



Seriously, others on the forum are doing their best to make predictions which sound logical and make sense. The comment made is just silly and lends no credibility.
 
SESGDL
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:07 pm

This may be a little off-topic, but where is AA coming up with all the planes for these new longhaul flights? Per the last plan, the number of widebodies was staying pretty consistent for 2020 balancing out deliveries against planned retirements. What's being cancelled to free up all these new flights, especially in lieu of the MAX also continuing to be grounded?

Jeremy
 
CURQ400
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:08 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Expansion in Australia is great for AA since they reduced their presence in China. AA sadly killed their Chicago to Shanghai and Peking flights in late 2018. While their are many reasons attributable to this, the 787-8 has to be one of the reasons. Those planes had 28 Business Class seats, they took out 8 J class seats to put in 28 Y+ seats.

I am all for those 28 Premium Economy seats but why ditch the J class seats and not ditch some plain Y class seats ? 28 J class seats & 28 PE seats minus X economy seats sounds like the right number to me. AA also needs to expand their 787-9 J class seats to a similar number like UA or BA, currently they have 30 J class seats on the 787-9. Some 787-9 flights are 15 hours so their is demand for Business Class.


What’s the point of having more J seats if you can’t sell them? (for a decent yield)

The 788 (and the decision to remove 8J seats) had nothing to do with them dropping China flying. If anything, the 788 is what kept that rite alive for so long.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:15 pm

Both DL and UA have India flights. Maybe AA will join them?
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x1234
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:16 pm

I believe Melbourne (MEL) is higher yielding than Brisbane (BNE) but the 789 probably can't make DFW-MEL with the Pacific headwinds so if its Australia its DFW-BNE (AKL/CHC already announced). Remember QF already flies LAX-MEL with the A380. I would like AA to try something drastic like MIA-JNB if their 789 can take off with decent payload due to the hot & high conditions of JNB.
 
flyingisthebest
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:17 pm

It could be BNE-DFW (4x per week) and BNE-LAX 3 x per week.
This would be the most logical as QF starts soon with BNE-ORD 3 x per week so by adding BNE-DFW 4 x per week it allows Daily connections to an AA hub from BNE. 3 x per week is perfect to backfill QF 55/56.

Or it could be MIA-JNB as doesn’t that airport want more African service and that is definitely ULH.
 
FSDan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:20 pm

SESGDL wrote:
This may be a little off-topic, but where is AA coming up with all the planes for these new longhaul flights? Per the last plan, the number of widebodies was staying pretty consistent for 2020 balancing out deliveries against planned retirements. What's being cancelled to free up all these new flights, especially in lieu of the MAX also continuing to be grounded?

Jeremy


Well, if it's a winter-seasonal route (or at least a route that starts in winter end then continues year-round), there could be some aircraft availability simply from decreased winter utilization. UA's EWR-CPT is that type of route, as is SFO-DEL (which went year-round, but still is sub-daily in summer).
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anymaninfc
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:21 pm

SESGDL wrote:
This may be a little off-topic, but where is AA coming up with all the planes for these new longhaul flights? Per the last plan, the number of widebodies was staying pretty consistent for 2020 balancing out deliveries against planned retirements. What's being cancelled to free up all these new flights, especially in lieu of the MAX also continuing to be grounded?

Jeremy


AA is receiving A321NEOs throughout 2020, plus receiving 12 new 788s. Since the NEOs can effectively replace B767s on many of the routes currently flown, some of the 788s will be free to fly additions to the schedule. And yes, some other NB aircraft will be retired...but AA can control the retirement rate as suits their needs.
 
Kbud
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:32 pm

ryby92 wrote:
Kbud wrote:
American is stopping all international flights out of ORD and moving them to DFW...



Seriously, others on the forum are doing their best to make predictions which sound logical and make sense. The comment made is just silly and lends no credibility.


Chill out! There has been humor on this board at times.

The facts are that American has flown internationally nonstop out of ORD but cancelled them to Shanghai, Beijing, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, Brussels, Moscow, Manchester, Zurich, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, India and more.
 
Detroit313
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:50 pm

Kbud wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
Kbud wrote:
American is stopping all international flights out of ORD and moving them to DFW...



Seriously, others on the forum are doing their best to make predictions which sound logical and make sense. The comment made is just silly and lends no credibility.


Chill out! There has been humor on this board at times.

The facts are that American has flown internationally nonstop out of ORD but cancelled them to Shanghai, Beijing, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, Brussels, Moscow, Manchester, Zurich, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, India and more.


And they have added many others like Athens, Barcelona Venice, Budapest, Prague, Krakow and more. What's your point?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:02 pm

anymaninfc wrote:
Since the NEOs can effectively replace B767s on many of the routes currently flown...


Where is AA using 767s on low-departure-elevation, sub-3000 mile routes? AA isn't getting 321XLRs any time soon.
 
smi0006
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:47 pm

I’d be surprised if the BNE market can handle the extra capacity of SFO/ORD from QF, daily QF LAX with AA on top. Perhaps seasonally to LAX/DFW. But could be wrong- perhaps they are being more aggressive against VA also.

I would have thought MEL would be due for some love from AA/QF first. I’d have thought QF would have been keen to release the 789 off MEL-LAX to move to SFO and AA take this over.

The other part that has me skeptical is predictions have been the bush fires will significantly depress tourism from the US and Japan as many consumers felt the whole country was on fire. Whilst catastrophic to local small regional tourism industry- major infrastructure hasn’t been impacted. Jittery overseas tourist may still hold off - seems an odd time to be adding capacity.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:16 pm

smi0006 wrote:
I’d be surprised if the BNE market can handle the extra capacity of SFO/ORD from QF, daily QF LAX with AA on top. Perhaps seasonally to LAX/DFW. But could be wrong- perhaps they are being more aggressive against VA also.

I would have thought MEL would be due for some love from AA/QF first. I’d have thought QF would have been keen to release the 789 off MEL-LAX to move to SFO and AA take this over.

The other part that has me skeptical is predictions have been the bush fires will significantly depress tourism from the US and Japan as many consumers felt the whole country was on fire. Whilst catastrophic to local small regional tourism industry- major infrastructure hasn’t been impacted. Jittery overseas tourist may still hold off - seems an odd time to be adding capacity.


Just a thought, perhaps AA adding BNE wouldn't be a capacity boost, QF could drop a couple of frequencies to then move those to something like MEL-DFW.

QF's 789 is pretty premium heavy, so would be a better fit for MEL-DFW where as AA's might be a better fit for BNE-LAX.

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