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Fly123123
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:30 pm

Could it be LAX-TLV?
Perhaps a possibility since AA is starting DFW-TLV and LY hasn't added capacity to LAX-TLV in a while.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:45 pm

Any betters on ORD-ISB or KHI?
 
x1234
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:17 pm

If its anything its going to be JFK-TLV (largest TLV market in the world, DL is at 1x daily, UA at 2x daily and of course El Al.
 
N292UX
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:04 am

CLT or PHL-Asia? Doubtful but one can wish.

Probably will be a new Australian route from LAX.
 
FSDan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:25 am

x1234 wrote:
If its anything its going to be JFK-TLV (largest TLV market in the world, DL is at 1x daily, UA at 2x daily and of course El Al.


DL's actually at 2x daily as well for a good chunk of the year. LY's frequencies are somewhat variable day-to-day, but I think it's usually ~2 daily each to EWR and JFK.
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:59 am

Obzerva wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’d be surprised if the BNE market can handle the extra capacity of SFO/ORD from QF, daily QF LAX with AA on top. Perhaps seasonally to LAX/DFW. But could be wrong- perhaps they are being more aggressive against VA also.

I would have thought MEL would be due for some love from AA/QF first. I’d have thought QF would have been keen to release the 789 off MEL-LAX to move to SFO and AA take this over.

The other part that has me skeptical is predictions have been the bush fires will significantly depress tourism from the US and Japan as many consumers felt the whole country was on fire. Whilst catastrophic to local small regional tourism industry- major infrastructure hasn’t been impacted. Jittery overseas tourist may still hold off - seems an odd time to be adding capacity.


Just a thought, perhaps AA adding BNE wouldn't be a capacity boost, QF could drop a couple of frequencies to then move those to something like MEL-DFW.

QF's 789 is pretty premium heavy, so would be a better fit for MEL-DFW where as AA's might be a better fit for BNE-LAX.


QF are contractually committed to "basing" 4 787s at BNE per some sort of deal with the Queensland Government.

I guess they could theoretically put one on BNE-HKG or BNE-SIN if the US market dried up significantly, but otherwise 2x daily BNE-USA is a simple way to achieve this (7x BNE-LAX, 4x BNE-SFO, 3x BNE-ORD requires 4 frames).
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:12 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I’d be surprised if the BNE market can handle the extra capacity of SFO/ORD from QF, daily QF LAX with AA on top. Perhaps seasonally to LAX/DFW. But could be wrong- perhaps they are being more aggressive against VA also.

I would have thought MEL would be due for some love from AA/QF first. I’d have thought QF would have been keen to release the 789 off MEL-LAX to move to SFO and AA take this over.

The other part that has me skeptical is predictions have been the bush fires will significantly depress tourism from the US and Japan as many consumers felt the whole country was on fire. Whilst catastrophic to local small regional tourism industry- major infrastructure hasn’t been impacted. Jittery overseas tourist may still hold off - seems an odd time to be adding capacity.


Just a thought, perhaps AA adding BNE wouldn't be a capacity boost, QF could drop a couple of frequencies to then move those to something like MEL-DFW.

QF's 789 is pretty premium heavy, so would be a better fit for MEL-DFW where as AA's might be a better fit for BNE-LAX.


QF are contractually committed to "basing" 4 787s at BNE per some sort of deal with the Queensland Government.

I guess they could theoretically put one on BNE-HKG or BNE-SIN if the US market dried up significantly, but otherwise 2x daily BNE-USA is a simple way to achieve this (7x BNE-LAX, 4x BNE-SFO, 3x BNE-ORD requires 4 frames).


Per stated earlier by other posters, QF is already reducing capacity on the BNE-LAX route by gradually reducing back to x10 weekly when BNE-SFO starts in February and eventually back to daily BNE-LAX-JFK when BNE-ORD begins in March.

Also, QF also needs the 787 for the LAX-JFK leg (which carries the pax from SYD, MEL and BNE). QF15/16 ex-BNE enables this and it would seem to be more cost efficient than flying half-empty A380s from LAX to JFK.
 
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chepos
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:19 am

x1234 wrote:
If its anything its going to be JFK-TLV (largest TLV market in the world, DL is at 1x daily, UA at 2x daily and of course El Al.


Of all the realistic possibilities mentioned on this thread (not the inane ones). I would put JFK-TLV on the not very likely category.


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cedarjet
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:47 am

I’m not feeling Australia, least of all Brisbane. India makes a lot more sense
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x1234
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:49 am

Or is it LAX-MNL or LAX-BKK? Either market has very high PDEW to the US (especially MNL, the 2nd most spoken Asian language in the US (tagalog) behind Mandarin Chinese). This is the time for AA to shine and beat UA to SFO-MNL.I'm not feeling India as South Asia has worse yields than East Asia.
 
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:00 am

Do we really need a thread every time JonNYC tweets?
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:04 am

How about Boston to South America?
 
TryToFlySomeday
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:10 am

Adipocere wrote:
Any betters on ORD-ISB or KHI?

AA won't fly there anytime soon. They can't even make DEL, across the border and a market much larger, work from ORD.
Not to mention that U.S. airlines have security concerns about Pakistan, unfortunately. I could see AC make a jab at Pakistan in the 2030s, but only if LH comes in the 2020s and stays in Pakistan that long.
cedarjet wrote:
I’m not feeling Australia, least of all Brisbane. India makes a lot more sense

PHL-DEL.
Pakistani American born and raised near CHI (ORD/MDW). Relatives are from both India and Pakistan
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:22 am

x1234 wrote:
Or is it LAX-MNL or LAX-BKK? Either market has very high PDEW to the US (especially MNL, the 2nd most spoken Asian language in the US (tagalog) behind Mandarin Chinese). This is the time for AA to shine and beat UA to SFO-MNL.I'm not feeling India as South Asia has worse yields than East Asia.


Problem is that most of the (limited) high yielding traffic out of MNL has been snapped up by PR, and both the Thailand and Philippine markets overall are traditionally low-yield VFR with limited high yield business traffic to support/subsidise the VFR crowd.

It'll basically be PR slaughtering whoever enters the MNL non-stop market in the unlikely case of a competitor entering.
 
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:54 am

TYWoolman wrote:
How about Boston to South America?


That’s not a super long haul
 
JohanTally
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:02 am

A direct flight from US to Thailand will eventually come back but probably not on an AA 789. TG had to use their 345 because flight times could reach close to 18 hours. The 789 can reach BKK unfortunately not with a viable payload. There have been instances where French Polynesia have been mentioned and it's only 7 or 8 hours from LAX requiring just one frame.
 
alasizon
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:13 am

JohanTally wrote:
A direct flight from US to Thailand will eventually come back but probably not on an AA 789. TG had to use their 345 because flight times could reach close to 18 hours. The 789 can reach BKK unfortunately not with a viable payload. There have been instances where French Polynesia have been mentioned and it's only 7 or 8 hours from LAX requiring just one frame.


While I don't think it would be Thailand (or any East Asia country); PER-LHR pretty much proves a 789 can do an 18 hour flight. The AA configuration is denser than QF's but it does prove the aircraft can carry a meaningful payload on an 18-hour mission.
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:55 am

SCFlyer wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Obzerva wrote:

Just a thought, perhaps AA adding BNE wouldn't be a capacity boost, QF could drop a couple of frequencies to then move those to something like MEL-DFW.

QF's 789 is pretty premium heavy, so would be a better fit for MEL-DFW where as AA's might be a better fit for BNE-LAX.


QF are contractually committed to "basing" 4 787s at BNE per some sort of deal with the Queensland Government.

I guess they could theoretically put one on BNE-HKG or BNE-SIN if the US market dried up significantly, but otherwise 2x daily BNE-USA is a simple way to achieve this (7x BNE-LAX, 4x BNE-SFO, 3x BNE-ORD requires 4 frames).


Per stated earlier by other posters, QF is already reducing capacity on the BNE-LAX route by gradually reducing back to x10 weekly when BNE-SFO starts in February and eventually back to daily BNE-LAX-JFK when BNE-ORD begins in March.

Also, QF also needs the 787 for the LAX-JFK leg (which carries the pax from SYD, MEL and BNE). QF15/16 ex-BNE enables this and it would seem to be more cost efficient than flying half-empty A380s from LAX to JFK.


I well aware of all that, but I appreciate that my original post was not very clear. What I was trying to say is that it was highly unlikely that QF would cancel a BNE flight to add MEL-DFW (as suggested by the post I was responding to) as they have to keep four based in BNE.

The second paragraph was superfluous, but what I was trying to suggest is that if BNE-ORD, for example, was a flaming mess then their options would be to increase BNE-SFO to daily, put BNE-LAX back to 10x, or keep capacity the same on those routes and park the fourth frame on an Asian turn if the BNE-USA market couldn't absorb the additional capacity at a profitable level. Either way it will stay in BNE, and won't be moved to MEL.
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rjbesikof
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:18 am

What about LAX to ICN?
 
JohanTally
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:24 am

alasizon wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
A direct flight from US to Thailand will eventually come back but probably not on an AA 789. TG had to use their 345 because flight times could reach close to 18 hours. The 789 can reach BKK unfortunately not with a viable payload. There have been instances where French Polynesia have been mentioned and it's only 7 or 8 hours from LAX requiring just one frame.


While I don't think it would be Thailand (or any East Asia country); PER-LHR pretty much proves a 789 can do an 18 hour flight. The AA configuration is denser than QF's but it does prove the aircraft can carry a meaningful payload on an 18-hour mission.


By no means am I saying the 789 can't operate 18 hour flights but the AA 789 which has close to 300 seats isn't going to work but also a premium heavy configuration would be less than ideal for a mostly leisure destination. PER-LHR is a very successful route but primarily because of people paying a premium to get from Australia to the UK in the least amount of time as possible. That premium is unlikely to exist on a LAX-BKK leisure route. I love all the 787 models but AA 787s are not ideally configured for ULH. TG was hemorrhaging money on the route when they discontinued it and I'm not sure what airline could profitably resurrect it.
 
Yonderlust
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:27 am

[photoid][/photoid]
KLMatSJC wrote:
Both DL and UA have India flights. Maybe AA will join them?

About 10 years ago AA had ORD-DEL.
 
flyboy7974
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:26 am

x1234 wrote:
If its anything its going to be JFK-TLV (largest TLV market in the world, DL is at 1x daily, UA at 2x daily and of course El Al.


AA will be back on PHLTLV anytime before they think of JFK service.

I think more Australia is in the future and eventually India, at some point, for AA.
 
acentauri
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:08 am

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
....................
PHL-DEL.

That's way too logical, relative to most of the other Thread replies. :biggrin: :biggrin:
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:36 am

Part of AA's difficulty with India before was the lack of feed at DEL. They tried with Sahara Airlines but they morphed into Air Sahara and any deal ended when the latter was acquired by Jet for JetConnect. Then there was the Kingfisher farce. I think they would still need a partner to make India work, but who's available and not a LCC/ULCC?
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:14 am

Yonderlust wrote:
About 10 years ago AA had ORD-DEL.

Flights ended in March 2012
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:30 am

KLMatSJC wrote:
Both DL and UA have India flights. Maybe AA will join them?

About 10 years ago AA had ORD-DEL.[/quote]
Yes, had. Past tense.

DL also had flights to India through FRA, CDG, and maybe AMS too. United's Round the World flight even stopped in DEL.
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:05 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?



LAX is the elsewhere. If you are not sending the most capacity you can spare to LAX, there is not a point in offering a global network. The same obviously applies to NYC & LHR.

AA may attempt to add that, but QF are in no place to cut frequency. It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network. Taking traffic away from that would be a pretty stunning misuse of resources, considering the cost to put that there.

I do not know where people get this notion, but not every frequency upgrade/add at AA needs to come at the expense of the OW Betters. It is not even historically the case that that happens with any notable frequency.



chepos wrote:
This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


No, you are correct. That is true. But from a media standpoint, I would not expect them to make that distinction.

I do not see anything that specifically calls out Australia in this link.

This is throwing darts at a wall, but looking at all the pieces (not many), the most probable possibility is DFW-DEL. 789, AA metal... plastic.



If the JV means metal neutral why not allow sale of empty seats on LAX-JFK with QF. After all AA operates the route and they would get their share of the profit. from a JV point of view they are the same airline & AA is fully in rights to sell seats JFK-LAX. It would also be a reduction in carbon output/person with a full passenger load vs half empty or less.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:12 am

x1234 wrote:
Or is it LAX-MNL or LAX-BKK? Either market has very high PDEW to the US (especially MNL, the 2nd most spoken Asian language in the US (tagalog) behind Mandarin Chinese). This is the time for AA to shine and beat UA to SFO-MNL.I'm not feeling India as South Asia has worse yields than East Asia.


MNL is very VFR MNL very price sensitive vacation/beach market based traffic. It's low yield. They would be happy to let UA have that. AA long haul needs high pointy end passenger counts to justify the route. MNL & BKK both fail there.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:00 pm

US law actively prohibits sale of empty seats on JFK-LAX QF operated flights to people just traveling between JFK and LAX. It is literally against the law to do so. In addition, it is against the law, and they have been fined, for selling seats on those flights to travelers who were not contininuing their travels past LAX on QF operated flights. This is not an option.

rbavfan wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?



LAX is the elsewhere. If you are not sending the most capacity you can spare to LAX, there is not a point in offering a global network. The same obviously applies to NYC & LHR.

AA may attempt to add that, but QF are in no place to cut frequency. It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network. Taking traffic away from that would be a pretty stunning misuse of resources, considering the cost to put that there.

I do not know where people get this notion, but not every frequency upgrade/add at AA needs to come at the expense of the OW Betters. It is not even historically the case that that happens with any notable frequency.



chepos wrote:
This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


No, you are correct. That is true. But from a media standpoint, I would not expect them to make that distinction.

I do not see anything that specifically calls out Australia in this link.

This is throwing darts at a wall, but looking at all the pieces (not many), the most probable possibility is DFW-DEL. 789, AA metal... plastic.



If the JV means metal neutral why not allow sale of empty seats on LAX-JFK with QF. After all AA operates the route and they would get their share of the profit. from a JV point of view they are the same airline & AA is fully in rights to sell seats JFK-LAX. It would also be a reduction in carbon output/person with a full passenger load vs half empty or less.
 
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Polot
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:11 pm

rbavfan wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

AA's rumored to "partially take over" LAX-BNE, would be a good move to allow Qantas aircraft to fly elsewhere. Though... DFW-BNE, anyone?



LAX is the elsewhere. If you are not sending the most capacity you can spare to LAX, there is not a point in offering a global network. The same obviously applies to NYC & LHR.

AA may attempt to add that, but QF are in no place to cut frequency. It is not even clear that QF will halt the JFK runs once their non-stoppers commence.
As well, the MX center at LAX/WAMA that QF just built serves a vital function in that network. Taking traffic away from that would be a pretty stunning misuse of resources, considering the cost to put that there.

I do not know where people get this notion, but not every frequency upgrade/add at AA needs to come at the expense of the OW Betters. It is not even historically the case that that happens with any notable frequency.



chepos wrote:
This may be splitting hairs but LAX-BNE is not really a ULH, the tweet does mention ULH.


No, you are correct. That is true. But from a media standpoint, I would not expect them to make that distinction.

I do not see anything that specifically calls out Australia in this link.

This is throwing darts at a wall, but looking at all the pieces (not many), the most probable possibility is DFW-DEL. 789, AA metal... plastic.



If the JV means metal neutral why not allow sale of empty seats on LAX-JFK with QF. After all AA operates the route and they would get their share of the profit. from a JV point of view they are the same airline & AA is fully in rights to sell seats JFK-LAX. It would also be a reduction in carbon output/person with a full passenger load vs half empty or less.


They are the “same airline” from the JV participant’s point of view over the sharing of costs and revenue. That doesn’t mean they are legally the same airline. The fact that costs/profits are shared so they are the “same airline” is purely a decision that the JV participants make themselves. All the governments approve in JV is the coordination of schedules and fares (antitrust immunity). Technically a JV can exist where QF gets 70% of the profits and AA 30% for example. QF is still an Australian airline with no cabotage rights in the US.
 
S75752
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:49 pm

JohanTally wrote:
A direct flight from US to Thailand will eventually come back but probably not on an AA 789. TG had to use their 345 because flight times could reach close to 18 hours. The 789 can reach BKK unfortunately not with a viable payload.


The TG flight was BKK-JFK, BKK-LAX would be trivial for any 789, but likewise I doubt it would be AA to do it. Chances are we'll see BKK-LAX/SFO in the coming years from either TG or UA.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:54 pm

S75752 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
A direct flight from US to Thailand will eventually come back but probably not on an AA 789. TG had to use their 345 because flight times could reach close to 18 hours. The 789 can reach BKK unfortunately not with a viable payload.


The TG flight was BKK-JFK, BKK-LAX would be trivial for any 789, but likewise I doubt it would be AA to do it. Chances are we'll see BKK-LAX/SFO in the coming years from either TG or UA.


Doubt you'll see BKK from any US carrier. Its a huge tourist and VFR market. Yields are lousy.
 
voxkel
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:28 pm

Could be Miami-Johannesburg or Dallas-Delhi. The latter is a large unserved market and there is to much capacity on East Coast-Delhi.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:25 pm

jasoncrh said:
US law actively prohibits sale of empty seats on JFK-LAX QF operated flights to people just traveling between JFK and LAX. It is literally against the law to do so. In addition, it is against the law, and they have been fined, for selling seats on those flights to travelers who were not contininuing their travels past LAX on QF operated flights. This is not an option.

A small correction. US law DOES NOT prevent QF selling seats to travellers who are not continuing beyond LAX on QF. Unless its changed recently the law only requires that the passenger continues their journey "internationally".
The fines you refer to were over pax who QF belived were travelling international from LAX but didn't. Since that time QANTAS has introduced the restriction that passengers must be travelling onwards from LAX to Australia or NZ on QF operated aircraft to give them better control of the sitution.
This whole question was thrashed out in this forum back when QF reintroduced JFK flights.

Gemuser
 
x1234
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:27 pm

I think conventional widsom suggests that South Africa would be higher yielding than India. To India you have TONS of competition from the ME3 to the EU3 to the CN3. To Africa you basically have the ME3 and EU3 which charge substanial premiums to ANY African destination and no low cost competition. If AA flew MIA-JNB it would print money like gold (as I heard Delta say Africa is gold due to lack of competition).
 
sagechan
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:50 am

x1234 wrote:
I think conventional widsom suggests that South Africa would be higher yielding than India. To India you have TONS of competition from the ME3 to the EU3 to the CN3. To Africa you basically have the ME3 and EU3 which charge substanial premiums to ANY African destination and no low cost competition. If AA flew MIA-JNB it would print money like gold (as I heard Delta say Africa is gold due to lack of competition).


Why is there and assumption that South Africa would be flown from MIA? PHL is actually a very slightly shorter flight in GC distance. Does anyone have passenger data between the two?
717, 733, 734, 738, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, A359, MD88, CRJ, CR7, CR9, DH1, DH2, DH3, S340, ER4, E170, E175, E190/CO, NW, US, AC, NH, AA, UA, DL, WN, WS, SK, VY, LA, QF, AR, AV, MH, KA
 
hz747300
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:59 am

We're overlooking the obvious, LAX-SIN or PHX-HKG
Keep on truckin'...
 
MAH4546
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:29 am

sagechan wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I think conventional widsom suggests that South Africa would be higher yielding than India. To India you have TONS of competition from the ME3 to the EU3 to the CN3. To Africa you basically have the ME3 and EU3 which charge substanial premiums to ANY African destination and no low cost competition. If AA flew MIA-JNB it would print money like gold (as I heard Delta say Africa is gold due to lack of competition).


Why is there and assumption that South Africa would be flown from MIA? PHL is actually a very slightly shorter flight in GC distance. Does anyone have passenger data between the two?


Miami is a decent sized market to South Africa as it has the largest South African community in the States. Not huge, but it drives some traffic. Miami is the obvious choice for South Africa. Before alliance partnerships, SAA flew to MIA and later FLL.
a.
 
ualcsr
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:41 am

Here's one just for kicks and out of left field --- DFW or PHL to CMB. Both OneWorld hubs and UL seems to have a decent amount of connectivity to southern India.
 
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ryanflyer
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:50 am

Is ORD-SYD in the range of the 789? An insider hint has me thinking about it.
 
bcworld
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

ualcsr wrote:
Here's one just for kicks and out of left field --- DFW or PHL to CMB. Both OneWorld hubs and UL seems to have a decent amount of connectivity to southern India.

DFW-CMB...9667 miles. Not with any config AA currently has.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:01 am

ryanflyer wrote:
Is ORD-SYD in the range of the 789? An insider hint has me thinking about it.


If it was Qantas would be flying it. They are doing BNE - ORD because they haven't got a plane which can do SYD - no other reason.
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:13 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
Part of AA's difficulty with India before was the lack of feed at DEL. They tried with Sahara Airlines but they morphed into Air Sahara and any deal ended when the latter was acquired by Jet for JetConnect. Then there was the Kingfisher farce. I think they would still need a partner to make India work, but who's available and not a LCC/ULCC?


I guess Vistara. That said why can't it be a LCC? AA used to codeshare with LATAM extensively, and LA was a LCC for all intensive purposes within South America. Same goes for Air Berlin. Heck, QR codeshares with B6.

Intra-India flights are short, it isn't unreasonable to have someone take an hour flight in Y to connect to a 14 hour ULH in J.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
Antarius
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:16 am

hz747300 wrote:
We're overlooking the obvious, LAX-SIN or PHX-HKG


Zero chance of the latter, IMO. CX is cutting capacity, AA's DFW-HKG has become an easy upgrade compared to a nearly impossible one. HKG is not a growing market right now.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
AF773
Posts: 176
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:20 am

Adipocere wrote:
Any betters on ORD-ISB or KHI?



yes, with a tech stop in SAH!!
Next flights: SAN-LAX-MEX; SAN-ATL-PNS; SNA-ATL-CDG-SEA-SNA; LAX-CDG; ORY-FEZ; NCE-AMS-TPE-MNL-TAG
 
sagechan
Posts: 339
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Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:23 am

MAH4546 wrote:
sagechan wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I think conventional widsom suggests that South Africa would be higher yielding than India. To India you have TONS of competition from the ME3 to the EU3 to the CN3. To Africa you basically have the ME3 and EU3 which charge substanial premiums to ANY African destination and no low cost competition. If AA flew MIA-JNB it would print money like gold (as I heard Delta say Africa is gold due to lack of competition).


Why is there and assumption that South Africa would be flown from MIA? PHL is actually a very slightly shorter flight in GC distance. Does anyone have passenger data between the two?


Miami is a decent sized market to South Africa as it has the largest South African community in the States. Not huge, but it drives some traffic. Miami is the obvious choice for South Africa. Before alliance partnerships, SAA flew to MIA and later FLL.


Ok, thanks for the answer!
717, 733, 734, 738, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, A359, MD88, CRJ, CR7, CR9, DH1, DH2, DH3, S340, ER4, E170, E175, E190/CO, NW, US, AC, NH, AA, UA, DL, WN, WS, SK, VY, LA, QF, AR, AV, MH, KA
 
hz747300
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:33 am

Antarius wrote:
hz747300 wrote:
We're overlooking the obvious, LAX-SIN or PHX-HKG


Zero chance of the latter, IMO. CX is cutting capacity, AA's DFW-HKG has become an easy upgrade compared to a nearly impossible one. HKG is not a growing market right now.


PHX was a joke--we know they are secretly de-hubbing it. LAX-ASEAN is untapped. As is anything in India.
Keep on truckin'...
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:43 am

hz747300 wrote:
We're overlooking the obvious, LAX-SIN or PHX-HKG

If the former happens, hopefully it does better than UA.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2228
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:22 am

I do wonder if AA could make LAX-SIN work with the 789 in its current configuration. IIRC, UA struggled with their 789 and I believe their layout is less dense than AA's.

Still anything to ASEAN would be interesting, and would truly count as ULH.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
legend500
Posts: 171
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:05 pm

Re: Rumor: AA To Announce New Long-Haul Route - Possibly Brisbane

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:47 am

I’d imagine any route announcement concerning DFW would probably have to wait a little while longer until the 3W1 to 4W3 (for construction the old terminology still works better) connecting stinger is in operation. Unless they intend to start using buses from the F pad to D. Terminal’s pretty crowded as it is.

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