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Spacepope
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:05 am

lightsaber wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
windian425 wrote:
Would it make since for Airbus to offer a new-built A321NEO-F? With passenger Airlines deferring deliveries and airbus planning to maintain 40 A320 series deliveries, development capacity should be available.


I doubt any freighter operator would pony up cash for a new technology new production freighter, even if magic happens and they could develop it, certify it and deliver anytime soon.

That’s a super spendy option and won’t fly.
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/freight ... 2C000%20nm


As noted, a factory A321NEO freighter would be pricey. The accelerated conversions are due to lower priced conversion stock. I believe that the drop in used A320CEO pricing will result in more conversions than just A321.

The freight market is long term. Discussing IAI:
“Today, with the drastically reduced passenger aircraft operations and grounding of fleets, airlines are phasing out relatively new aircraft, such as the Boeing 737-800.”
....
“Today, the B737-800 aircraft are available for cargo conversions at prices much lower than only four months ago. This trend has opened up the market, and we expect further growth in demand.” Cohen concluded.


https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... sponsored/

Conversion of the 738 and A321 was something I considered investing in a future (as in 2022 time frame). A sales tool with a few sales until stock became cheaper. That cheap stock happened in 2020.

So now we are talking how many A321 conversions because too many are sitting around. The world is upside down.

Lightsaber


All good points however the parked A321 supply will quickly dry up as travel rebounds. I simply can’t understand the truly glacial pace the Airbus narrowbody is moving at though. Might be missing an opportunity.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:31 am

Spacepope wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

I doubt any freighter operator would pony up cash for a new technology new production freighter, even if magic happens and they could develop it, certify it and deliver anytime soon.

That’s a super spendy option and won’t fly.
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/freight ... 2C000%20nm


As noted, a factory A321NEO freighter would be pricey. The accelerated conversions are due to lower priced conversion stock. I believe that the drop in used A320CEO pricing will result in more conversions than just A321.

The freight market is long term. Discussing IAI:
“Today, with the drastically reduced passenger aircraft operations and grounding of fleets, airlines are phasing out relatively new aircraft, such as the Boeing 737-800.”
....
“Today, the B737-800 aircraft are available for cargo conversions at prices much lower than only four months ago. This trend has opened up the market, and we expect further growth in demand.” Cohen concluded.


https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... sponsored/

Conversion of the 738 and A321 was something I considered investing in a future (as in 2022 time frame). A sales tool with a few sales until stock became cheaper. That cheap stock happened in 2020.

So now we are talking how many A321 conversions because too many are sitting around. The world is upside down.

Lightsaber


All good points however the parked A321 supply will quickly dry up as travel rebounds. I simply can’t understand the truly glacial pace the Airbus narrowbody is moving at though. Might be missing an opportunity.

We have another thread on aircraft production) chicken:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1451221&p=22607975#p22607975

I see so many airlines returning A321CEOs (such as EasyJet) when they take the new A321NEOs. With how upside down aircraft supply and demand is and how deliveries if aircraft are accelerating, including Airbus, I do not see the resale value of A321s going back up much. Oh, if they recover 10% from the bottom, that will be interesting, but it will still be ok to convert.

In that other thread we are talking about Airbus and Boeing delivering over a thousand narrowbodies per year by 2023. I was if the opinion since 2018 we were in a widebody glut. Towards the end of 2019, I became convinced we were in a narrowbody glut. Without going any more off topic, I believe the stock if A321CEOs will see more demand, but that 15+ year old CEOs will be returned for new A321NEOs by several airlines: Easyjet, Indigo, JetBlue, and American.

It might be a bunch of old A321s bought by USAir being sold as AA takes their NEOs, but there will be stock.

I think we'll have a recovery next summer thanks to the vaccine, but it is a question of at what fraction of the prior level. Unfortunately, I think the fraction is low enough as to not worry about freight conversion stock. Even the Vaunted A321 will be available. Not as young of aircraft as we see converted today, in my opinion.

I hope I am wrong.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
GVZZZ
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:58 am

easyJet's only A321CEOs were inherited from GB Airways and they left the fleet many years ago. The small number of A321s they currently have are NEOs.

However I agree there will be feedstock for A321 P2F conversions for many years as airlines with large fleets of older 321CEO (AA, LH) buy NEOs.
 
WIederling
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.


Would that "work"?
The freighter takes additional payload ( vs the pax machine ) in lieu of center wingbox fuel.
What performance would an [email protected] show?
Murphy is an optimist
 
mxaxai
Posts: 2503
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:04 pm

GVZZZ wrote:
easyJet's only A321CEOs were inherited from GB Airways and they left the fleet many years ago. The small number of A321s they currently have are NEOs.

However I agree there will be feedstock for A321 P2F conversions for many years as airlines with large fleets of older 321CEO (AA, LH) buy NEOs.

I doubt that the very oldest A321ceo are that attractive, especially if they've been worked hard in continuous service. LH's A321-100 are all 22-26 years old, not much younger than the A320s that they recently scrapped, so they likely don't have much time/cycles left.

What you'd want is an airframe that was stored for a while, or used in a low intensity schedule.
 
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AECM
Posts: 355
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:05 pm

WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.


Would that "work"?
The freighter takes additional payload ( vs the pax machine ) in lieu of center wingbox fuel.
What performance would an [email protected] show?


Looking at the A330 Aircraft Characteristics Manual from Airbus website:

The A332F with RR engines can have a MZFW of 176 ton (MAX payload of 68 ton) for a MTOW of 230 ton, which leaves 54 tons for fuel.
The A338 in passenger configuration can have a MZFW of 176 ton for a MTOW of 247 ton which leaves 71 tons for fuel.

I think that if the market and demand is there the A338F is doable.
 
a2b7
Posts: 96
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/freight ... 2C000%20nm


As noted, a factory A321NEO freighter would be pricey. The accelerated conversions are due to lower priced conversion stock. I believe that the drop in used A320CEO pricing will result in more conversions than just A321.

The freight market is long term. Discussing IAI:
“Today, with the drastically reduced passenger aircraft operations and grounding of fleets, airlines are phasing out relatively new aircraft, such as the Boeing 737-800.”
....
“Today, the B737-800 aircraft are available for cargo conversions at prices much lower than only four months ago. This trend has opened up the market, and we expect further growth in demand.” Cohen concluded.


https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... sponsored/

Conversion of the 738 and A321 was something I considered investing in a future (as in 2022 time frame). A sales tool with a few sales until stock became cheaper. That cheap stock happened in 2020.

So now we are talking how many A321 conversions because too many are sitting around. The world is upside down.

Lightsaber


All good points however the parked A321 supply will quickly dry up as travel rebounds. I simply can’t understand the truly glacial pace the Airbus narrowbody is moving at though. Might be missing an opportunity.

We have another thread on aircraft production) chicken:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1451221&p=22607975#p22607975

I see so many airlines returning A321CEOs (such as EasyJet) when they take the new A321NEOs. With how upside down aircraft supply and demand is and how deliveries if aircraft are accelerating, including Airbus, I do not see the resale value of A321s going back up much. Oh, if they recover 10% from the bottom, that will be interesting, but it will still be ok to convert.

In that other thread we are talking about Airbus and Boeing delivering over a thousand narrowbodies per year by 2023. I was if the opinion since 2018 we were in a widebody glut. Towards the end of 2019, I became convinced we were in a narrowbody glut. Without going any more off topic, I believe the stock if A321CEOs will see more demand, but that 15+ year old CEOs will be returned for new A321NEOs by several airlines: Easyjet, Indigo, JetBlue, and American.

It might be a bunch of old A321s bought by USAir being sold as AA takes their NEOs, but there will be stock.

I think we'll have a recovery next summer thanks to the vaccine, but it is a question of at what fraction of the prior level. Unfortunately, I think the fraction is low enough as to not worry about freight conversion stock. Even the Vaunted A321 will be available. Not as young of aircraft as we see converted today, in my opinion.

I hope I am wrong.

Lightsaber

To be honest I also have the impression that EFW/ST are moving slowly, but that may also be related to the available feedstock. If I have counted correctly, there are only 43 stored A321-200 that are 12 years or older according to planespotters.net. I am looking forward to the A320P2F, because availability of feedstock should be much better.
I am not sure which airlines are most likely to retire a number of A321-200 in the coming years, but IndiGo has only operated the A321neo, and easyjet has already retired all of their A321ceos I am afraid.
 
MD80MKE
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:00 pm

mxaxai wrote:
GVZZZ wrote:
easyJet's only A321CEOs were inherited from GB Airways and they left the fleet many years ago. The small number of A321s they currently have are NEOs.

However I agree there will be feedstock for A321 P2F conversions for many years as airlines with large fleets of older 321CEO (AA, LH) buy NEOs.

I doubt that the very oldest A321ceo are that attractive, especially if they've been worked hard in continuous service. LH's A321-100 are all 22-26 years old, not much younger than the A320s that they recently scrapped, so they likely don't have much time/cycles left.

What you'd want is an airframe that was stored for a while, or used in a low intensity schedule.


Furthermore, no -100 will be converted to freighters is it has less capability. Although technically you can upgrade certain -100s to -200s, I don't think anyone will spend money and resources on those really old -100s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:28 am

AECM wrote:
WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.


Would that "work"?
The freighter takes additional payload ( vs the pax machine ) in lieu of center wingbox fuel.
What performance would an [email protected] show?


Looking at the A330 Aircraft Characteristics Manual from Airbus website:

The A332F with RR engines can have a MZFW of 176 ton (MAX payload of 68 ton) for a MTOW of 230 ton, which leaves 54 tons for fuel.
The A338 in passenger configuration can have a MZFW of 176 ton for a MTOW of 247 ton which leaves 71 tons for fuel.

I think that if the market and demand is there the A338F is doable.

I calculate a range of 3940nm to 4,040nm, full payload. So yes. That is DTW-AMS or MUC to NorthWest India.

With package freight demanding frequency, I see a market where freighters feed sub-hubs that are flown by A321P2F.

The more I think about this, the more I see volume in an A320P2F. That should happen soon enough.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
CX747
Posts: 6575
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:16 am

Spacepope wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

I doubt any freighter operator would pony up cash for a new technology new production freighter, even if magic happens and they could develop it, certify it and deliver anytime soon.

That’s a super spendy option and won’t fly.
Airbus should develop an A330NEO freighter as that gives Airbus a TATL freighter (the A330F ans A330P2Fs cannot carry full weight TATL (3200nm per Airbus). A higher MTOW NEO could in my opinion.
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/freight ... 2C000%20nm


As noted, a factory A321NEO freighter would be pricey. The accelerated conversions are due to lower priced conversion stock. I believe that the drop in used A320CEO pricing will result in more conversions than just A321.

The freight market is long term. Discussing IAI:
“Today, with the drastically reduced passenger aircraft operations and grounding of fleets, airlines are phasing out relatively new aircraft, such as the Boeing 737-800.”
....
“Today, the B737-800 aircraft are available for cargo conversions at prices much lower than only four months ago. This trend has opened up the market, and we expect further growth in demand.” Cohen concluded.


https://www.aviationbusinessnews.com/ca ... sponsored/

Conversion of the 738 and A321 was something I considered investing in a future (as in 2022 time frame). A sales tool with a few sales until stock became cheaper. That cheap stock happened in 2020.

So now we are talking how many A321 conversions because too many are sitting around. The world is upside down.

Lightsaber


All good points however the parked A321 supply will quickly dry up as travel rebounds. I simply can’t understand the truly glacial pace the Airbus narrowbody is moving at though. Might be missing an opportunity.


We've discussed this in the past but new info has come to light and additional hindsight is now available.

The A321P2F will sell. It has a market and the 757 isn't around in a few years to put up a fight. In the past 12 months we have seen 24 757P2Fs be heralded. I believe that may be more than the entire A321P2F customer base.

The A321P2F is late to a game that nobody is actually interested in anymore to an extent. UPS, FEDEX and Amazon have all shown that the 767 either new or P2F is King. It dominates the market for itself and routes previously flown by 757 freighters. The 757/321 cargo market is now flown by 767s. When you look at FEDEX, UPS, Amazon and DHL you see that the 767 is the sweet spot.

The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.

You don't push products to market that people are not looking for. You don't expand manufacturing capacity for products people are not buying. In a world where you can't get a cargo 767 fast enough, 737P2F lines push out wanted jets quickly and (2) 747-400s just entered P2F work, the 321P2F is as quiet as a mouse. Those factors are defeaning to me.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
WIederling
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:55 am

CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


This would indicate that NGs are faster displaced by other frames ( ceo, NEO, max ) than older A320 family types.
( and note the oldest NGs are much younger than early generation A320 family craft )

A detail that had delayed Airbus P2F projects in the past.
IS that a downside or an upside for Airbus frames? :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
VSMUT
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:06 pm

CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


It might be easy to forget, but the 737NG P2F took some time to ramp up as well, and that despite the fact that it was able to make good use of existing 737 Classic conversion lines.

Per another forum, there are now have 3 A321P2F conversion programs on the go with aircraft being cut up. EFW has delivered 2, inducted 2 and got 4 more lined up for conversion. Precision has its first prototype undergoing certification, while Sine Draco is converting its first aircraft.

EFW is aiming at 25 conversions annually:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airbus- ... SL1N2HI0MB

A321P2Fs will become as ubiquitous as 737-800Fs. It is just a few years behind. If you think it is quiet as a mouse, you just haven't been looking for it.

Any talk about the 757 and 767 conversions making the A321P2F surplus to requirements is simply nonsense. A great many of those are ageing and suitable feedstock for further conversions is running out. They are the conversions of the past, coming to an end sooner rather than later. You will have a fair number of A310s and A300s coming up for replacement as well. The fact that Precision, a major 757 converter, is hedging its bets on the A321 really says it all.
 
CX747
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:51 pm

VSMUT wrote:
CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


It might be easy to forget, but the 737NG P2F took some time to ramp up as well, and that despite the fact that it was able to make good use of existing 737 Classic conversion lines.

Per another forum, there are now have 3 A321P2F conversion programs on the go with aircraft being cut up. EFW has delivered 2, inducted 2 and got 4 more lined up for conversion. Precision has its first prototype undergoing certification, while Sine Draco is converting its first aircraft.

EFW is aiming at 25 conversions annually:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airbus- ... SL1N2HI0MB

A321P2Fs will become as ubiquitous as 737-800Fs. It is just a few years behind. If you think it is quiet as a mouse, you just haven't been looking for it.

Any talk about the 757 and 767 conversions making the A321P2F surplus to requirements is simply nonsense. A great many of those are ageing and suitable feedstock for further conversions is running out. They are the conversions of the past, coming to an end sooner rather than later. You will have a fair number of A310s and A300s coming up for replacement as well. The fact that Precision, a major 757 converter, is hedging its bets on the A321 really says it all.


The 737 line did take some time. It did not take anywhere near as long as the 321 is taking. It is also up and running and expanding while the 321 continues to trickle out at a much smaller rate.

The 757 is the conversion of the past and present but not the future. That is where the 321 has an opportunity. With that said, aersale is strongly moving forward with the conversion of (24) 757s bought just last September. Again, I think (24) conversions is more than the entire 321 program. Now, that won't stop the 321 but is is (24) less frames. It is also a little telling that in 2021 the sale of (24) 757P2F is foreseen while the 321 continues to stall.

The bigger issue overall for the 321 is the 767. New or P2F it is just going gangbusters. There is still a ton of feedstock left and Amazon just gobbled up (11) frames. The 767 now dominates the routes the DC-8 and 757 used to fly. FEDEX and UPS are solely focused on 767s, no longer wanting/needing 757s. That move in the market is horrendous for the 321P2F.

As for Precision, they have indeed turned toward the 321 and that is a good thing for the program. Yes, 757s are being done but that is the the winding down option. Precision doesn't convert 767s though, so the only thing it can focus on right now is the 321P2F. Kind of hard to use them as your bellwether as they are not in the 767 game and only have the 321 to offer.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
VSMUT
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:24 pm

CX747 wrote:
The 737 line did take some time. It did not take anywhere near as long as the 321 is taking. It is also up and running and expanding while the 321 continues to trickle out at a much smaller rate.


You would be wrong at that. The second A321P2F was actually delivered around a week faster than the second 737-800BCF, both around 3 months after the first redelivery. Given that the second A321P2F was delivered less than 2 weeks ago, we can hardly make any further assumptions about that program being abnormally slower than the BCF. I believe the third 737-800BCF was delivered to ASL 2 months after the second in September 2018. According to Titan Airways, they are taking their 2nd A321P2F (the third conversion in total) already next month:

https://www.titan-airways.com/news/tita ... freighter/

We are seeing an increase in demand for our freighter services and A321P2F aircraft will enable us to offer airfreight solutions to more clients. We will be taking delivery of a second unit in February and a third later this year.


And again, 737-800 conversions could utilize most of the existing 737-400 conversion facilities and infrastructure. The A321 couldn't.
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 640
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:40 pm

VSMUT wrote:
CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


The fact that Precision, a major 757 converter, is hedging its bets on the A321 really says it all.


Any news on how this conversion project is progressing? I cant seem to find much about it since the first flight.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 946
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:54 pm

CX747 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


It might be easy to forget, but the 737NG P2F took some time to ramp up as well, and that despite the fact that it was able to make good use of existing 737 Classic conversion lines.

Per another forum, there are now have 3 A321P2F conversion programs on the go with aircraft being cut up. EFW has delivered 2, inducted 2 and got 4 more lined up for conversion. Precision has its first prototype undergoing certification, while Sine Draco is converting its first aircraft.

EFW is aiming at 25 conversions annually:
https://www.reuters.com/article/airbus- ... SL1N2HI0MB

A321P2Fs will become as ubiquitous as 737-800Fs. It is just a few years behind. If you think it is quiet as a mouse, you just haven't been looking for it.

Any talk about the 757 and 767 conversions making the A321P2F surplus to requirements is simply nonsense. A great many of those are ageing and suitable feedstock for further conversions is running out. They are the conversions of the past, coming to an end sooner rather than later. You will have a fair number of A310s and A300s coming up for replacement as well. The fact that Precision, a major 757 converter, is hedging its bets on the A321 really says it all.


The 737 line did take some time. It did not take anywhere near as long as the 321 is taking. It is also up and running and expanding while the 321 continues to trickle out at a much smaller rate.

The 757 is the conversion of the past and present but not the future. That is where the 321 has an opportunity. With that said, aersale is strongly moving forward with the conversion of (24) 757s bought just last September. Again, I think (24) conversions is more than the entire 321 program. Now, that won't stop the 321 but is is (24) less frames. It is also a little telling that in 2021 the sale of (24) 757P2F is foreseen while the 321 continues to stall.

The bigger issue overall for the 321 is the 767. New or P2F it is just going gangbusters. There is still a ton of feedstock left and Amazon just gobbled up (11) frames. The 767 now dominates the routes the DC-8 and 757 used to fly. FEDEX and UPS are solely focused on 767s, no longer wanting/needing 757s. That move in the market is horrendous for the 321P2F.

As for Precision, they have indeed turned toward the 321 and that is a good thing for the program. Yes, 757s are being done but that is the the winding down option. Precision doesn't convert 767s though, so the only thing it can focus on right now is the 321P2F. Kind of hard to use them as your bellwether as they are not in the 767 game and only have the 321 to offer.

Yes, I agree that the shift of the market from the 757 size category to the 767 size category has gone largely unnoticed by causal enthusiasts. It was quite telling that right after FedEx completed their 757 BCF orders, that the demand was almost gone. FedEx subsequently parked some of their quite freshly converted freighters with around 10 frames remain parked now. The fact that a large percentage of the frames AA retired remain untouched by cargo carriers years before Covid struck was a sign of the market moving on. The market has now shifted to the 767 size category, with the same type rating, and a bigger plane requiring just a slightly bigger stand, that carries more cargo that the booming ecommerce market desires. The A321 on the other hand, is sandwiched by the 767 at the top and the still continuing success of the smaller 737 at the bottom, at an uncomfortable position in the market that was once the sweet spot but no longer is.
 
A380MSN004
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:29 pm

Interesting debate between the 757P2F & 321P2F.

Do you guys have some fair comparison of both freighers in terms of performances and economics?
 
mxaxai
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:22 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Yes, I agree that the shift of the market from the 757 size category to the 767 size category has gone largely unnoticed by causal enthusiasts.

Was there really that much of a shift? There used to be (and in some places still are) large fleets of DC-8-71/73F, A300F, A310F and DC-10F that served the same market as the 767F does today.

If you consider the overall market growth, has the small widebody marketshare really increased?
 
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AECM
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:17 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
Interesting debate between the 757P2F & 321P2F.

Do you guys have some fair comparison of both freighers in terms of performances and economics?


Doing a quick search online and comparing a PDF from Boeing to info in Airbus site

B752F with PW engines

MTOW = 115,660 Kg
Max Payload = 32,755 kg
Range at Max Payload = 3150 nm
Main deck cargo = 15 pallets
Lower hold cargo = Bulk (51,9 m3)

A321P2F

MTOW = 93,500 Kg
Max Payload = 28,000 kg
Range at Max Payload = 2040 nm
Main deck cargo = 14 pallets
Lower hold cargo = 10 pallets
 
MD80MKE
Posts: 211
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:29 pm

AECM wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
Interesting debate between the 757P2F & 321P2F.

Do you guys have some fair comparison of both freighers in terms of performances and economics?


Doing a quick search online and comparing a PDF from Boeing to info in Airbus site

B752F with PW engines

MTOW = 115,660 Kg
Max Payload = 32,755 kg
Range at Max Payload = 3150 nm
Main deck cargo = 15 pallets
Lower hold cargo = Bulk (51,9 m3)

A321P2F

MTOW = 93,500 Kg
Max Payload = 28,000 kg
Range at Max Payload = 2040 nm
Main deck cargo = 14 pallets
Lower hold cargo = 10 pallets


Thanks for the data. Believe A321PCF version squeezes out a little more payload with lower empty weight. Although the volume should be almost identical.
I have an open query though. Does the 757SFs at a typical express integrator (i.e. FedEx) usually max out on volumes or payload? If its the former case, I see how A321s will be able to compete in that market with 90%(?) percent of the volume of a 757 at a significantly lower operating cost and fuel.
 
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AECM
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:45 pm

I believe that the big express carriers like DHL, UPS and FedEx in their core business they tend to carry more low volume itens which translates in the the planes being volume limited instead of weight limited.

In this scenario the A321P2F can use both the main deck and the hold with containerized cargo.
 
CX747
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:20 am

AECM wrote:
I believe that the big express carriers like DHL, UPS and FedEx in their core business they tend to carry more low volume itens which translates in the the planes being volume limited instead of weight limited.

In this scenario the A321P2F can use both the main deck and the hold with containerized cargo.


Most of the time Express carriers box out before hitting weight issues. Their is a difference in business between FEDEX and UPS ala 777 vs 747 but overall very similar.

This brings to light one of the reasons why the 767F has taken over such a large swath of the market and routes. It is almost "right sized" for what the carriers need. Therefore, they have bought the 767 is great numbers as it does the previous DC-8/757 flying and replacement duties for the DC-10/MD-11.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:36 am

mxaxai wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Yes, I agree that the shift of the market from the 757 size category to the 767 size category has gone largely unnoticed by causal enthusiasts.

Was there really that much of a shift? There used to be (and in some places still are) large fleets of DC-8-71/73F, A300F, A310F and DC-10F that served the same market as the 767F does today.

If you consider the overall market growth, has the small widebody marketshare really increased?


There has been a trend toward the 767 for several years now. The A310F is pretty much gone from fleets and there are probably less than 10 operational DC-8Fs. The DC-10F, once the backbone of FEDEX has dwindled down and is also looking at being only in pictures of a bygone era.

The 737F continues to shine but it covers a different market than the DC-8/757. 757 and 321 P2F will be undertaken but the 767 with both new and P2F frames will continue to grab the overwhelming lion's share. IAI has put out a great P2F product and with the 767F promises 20 additional years of operation. That's amazing to think about!!!

So, the 757 and 321 are sandwiched between the 767, which has really taken over the past operating arena and the 737. The 737 though is smaller and serves as an almost perfect 727F replacement. So a different creature if you will in this market. So, a tougher road to hoe for the 757/321 going forward, as the 767 continues to be chosen in their stead and also as a stalwart DC-10/MD-11 replacement. Almost killing two birds with one stone.

I just caught that BBAM ordered today an additional 6 737-800BCFs today with 6 options....wish the orders were for 727Fs but one can dream!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jan 20, 2021 2:44 am

Has Amazon looked at the A321P2F? It could be set up like the 738's at Sun Country, an airliner with lots of 737 pilots that would love to move freight for Amazon.

In particular Europe could easily use the A321P2F quite well for Amazon.
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:19 pm

1250 G-NIKO (to be G-POWZ with Titan) had a test flight from Singapore Seletar on Wednesday, which is a good sign that it'll be out soon!
 
A388
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:11 pm

Hi,

Does anyone have the latest delivery list of the A321P2F? I've seen photos of the Australian Post and Titan A321P2F but which other airlines are the next ones to receive the A321P2F and when are the planned on receiving them? Is there a complete list of all the cargo airlines who ordered the A321P2F so far?

A388
 
MD80MKE
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:26 pm

A388 wrote:
Hi,

Does anyone have the latest delivery list of the A321P2F? I've seen photos of the Australian Post and Titan A321P2F but which other airlines are the next ones to receive the A321P2F and when are the planned on receiving them? Is there a complete list of all the cargo airlines who ordered the A321P2F so far?

A388


Here's a list I've been referencing regarding A321P2F information. The ramp up pace admittedly seems to be pretty slow at this point.
https://a380.boards.net/post/53084/thread
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:02 pm

MD80MKE wrote:
A388 wrote:
Hi,

Does anyone have the latest delivery list of the A321P2F? I've seen photos of the Australian Post and Titan A321P2F but which other airlines are the next ones to receive the A321P2F and when are the planned on receiving them? Is there a complete list of all the cargo airlines who ordered the A321P2F so far?

A388


Here's a list I've been referencing regarding A321P2F information. The ramp up pace admittedly seems to be pretty slow at this point.


It is actually a smidge faster than the 737-800BCF at the equivalent point.
 
A388
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:54 pm

MD80MKE wrote:
Here's a list I've been referencing regarding A321P2F information. The ramp up pace admittedly seems to be pretty slow at this point.
https://a380.boards.net/post/53084/thread


Thanks MD80MKE :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

A388
 
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Antaras
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:08 pm

In total how many airframes are in the conversion programs at this moment?
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:44 am

MD80MKE wrote:
A388 wrote:
Hi,

Does anyone have the latest delivery list of the A321P2F? I've seen photos of the Australian Post and Titan A321P2F but which other airlines are the next ones to receive the A321P2F and when are the planned on receiving them? Is there a complete list of all the cargo airlines who ordered the A321P2F so far?

A388


Here's a list I've been referencing regarding A321P2F information. The ramp up pace admittedly seems to be pretty slow at this point.
https://a380.boards.net/post/53084/thread

Slow? An airframe where sellers do you not yet accept the market value.

Two converted.
Two in conversions
Two new conversions in work from competitors
Four other airframes selected.

Just wait until the ball gets rolling.
Or the A320 conversions

Lightsaber
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A380MSN004
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:41 pm

Hi everyone,

We read the A321P2F is tapping the B757F market but regarding the numbers below my opinion is the B757F seems to be better than the A321P2F:

B757-200P2F
Max Payload : 36T
Volume : 187m3
Range at Max Payload : 2200NM
Lease rate : 160 - 235K USD
Fuel Burn : 3,3T / Hour
Airframe Maintenance cost : 700 USD / Hour

A321P2F
Max Payload : 27T
Volume : 203m3 (Maindeck + lowerdeck)
Range at Max Payload : 2100NM
Lease rate : 260-270K USD
Fuel Burn : 2,75T / Hour
Airframe Maintenance cost : 600 USD / Hour

According to the numbers above, the 757 lift heavier, cheaper to lease and appart the operator is volume limited before payload limited, I don't see the point to get an A321P2F but I might miss something. Would like to get your opinions on that?

Many thanks.

*datas are from converters / IBA / Planestats
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:41 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi everyone,

We read the A321P2F is tapping the B757F market but regarding the numbers below my opinion is the B757F seems to be better than the A321P2F:


When buying or leasing an airplane you don't have to look at now but at the coming 10-15 years. It's a major investment in your future needs and requirements. Where will the 757 be in the coming 10-15 years versus the A321? The A321 freighter's fuel consumption is probably also one reason it is more appealing. Maintenance costs might also be in favor of the A321 but am not sure. Please correct me on this.

A388
 
jbs2886
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:23 pm

A388 wrote:
A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi everyone,

We read the A321P2F is tapping the B757F market but regarding the numbers below my opinion is the B757F seems to be better than the A321P2F:


When buying or leasing an airplane you don't have to look at now but at the coming 10-15 years. It's a major investment in your future needs and requirements. Where will the 757 be in the coming 10-15 years versus the A321? The A321 freighter's fuel consumption is probably also one reason it is more appealing. Maintenance costs might also be in favor of the A321 but am not sure. Please correct me on this.

A388


I'd also note that per those numbers, the A321P2F has greater volume and the likely customers of the aircraft are express carriers, which need volume, not weight lift. So, in that sense, the A321P2F is better. I also imagine the cost of acquisition has come down since COVID.
 
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zkojq
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:04 am

People here seem to be forgetting that it's already three years since the first 737-800 P2F conversion. The first A321 P2F was delivered four months ago so of course the much more mature program will be delivering much more aircraft - to expect otherwise would be a bit crazy.

Imo the 737-800 P2F will definitely be benefiting from the 737's rock solid reputation as the king of narrow body freighters. For existing 737 freight operators, the synergies between 737 Classic and 737NG freighters will be compelling.

I fully agree with what lightsaber said earlier about lots of AA A321s that can enter the market in the medium term which will keep values depressed (good for the conversion market). Theres plenty of late nineties and early 2000s A321s which have been scrapped already. IIRC nearly all of Alitalia's A321s were parted out.

A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi everyone,

We read the A321P2F is tapping the B757F market but regarding the numbers below my opinion is the B757F seems to be better than the A321P2F:


The 757 has widebody engines = much more expensive to maintain. And thirstier.
First to fly the 787-9
 
eamondzhang
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:38 am

zkojq wrote:
IIRC nearly all of Alitalia's A321s were parted out.

Their A321s are -100s which has a lower MTOW and (IIRC) no center fuel tank. Meaning they're useless in P2F front.

The only large A321-100 operator nowadays is LH now - but I bet they'll go to the scrapman pretty shortly

Michael
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:29 pm

WIederling wrote:
CX747 wrote:
The 737NGP2F operation is going gangbusters. There is no lack of customers and conversion lines are sprouting like wild fire. This is in stark contrast to the 320/321 P2F lines.


This would indicate that NGs are faster displaced by other frames ( ceo, NEO, max ) than older A320 family types.
( and note the oldest NGs are much younger than early generation A320 family craft )

A detail that had delayed Airbus P2F projects in the past.
IS that a downside or an upside for Airbus frames? :-)


I'd say it's pretty sad that a 30 year old example is comparable to one built the last five years from an economic/environmental standpoint. :(

Are these P2F mods applicable to frames with the modern wingtips (sharklets)?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:12 pm

zkojq wrote:
People here seem to be forgetting that it's already three years since the first 737-800 P2F conversion. The first A321 P2F was delivered four months ago so of course the much more mature program will be delivering much more aircraft - to expect otherwise would be a bit crazy.

Imo the 737-800 P2F will definitely be benefiting from the 737's rock solid reputation as the king of narrow body freighters. For existing 737 freight operators, the synergies between 737 Classic and 737NG freighters will be compelling.

I fully agree with what lightsaber said earlier about lots of AA A321s that can enter the market in the medium term which will keep values depressed (good for the conversion market). Theres plenty of late nineties and early 2000s A321s which have been scrapped already. IIRC nearly all of Alitalia's A321s were parted out.


A good point on timeline. It usually takes time to plan the transition out of commercial duty. Nitpick, it is a 738BCF or 738BDSF, the P2F is on EFW frames.

The 737NGs are benefitting from scale. That helps resale value.

My personal opinion is it will take Precision's conversion coming online to boost the A321 conversion market. This isn't a criticism, competition just improves the performance of any business.

Lightsaber
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WIederling
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:21 am

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
I'd say it's pretty sad that a 30 year old example is comparable to one built the last five years from an economic/environmental standpoint. :(


It shows that back when the A320 project started all the right basic decisions were taken
_even_ when they came up as an initial limitation. ( like the A321 going from sideline product
to center stage.)

737 was apparently a more peaky product that needed pronounced whittling and remodeling
effort to come forward. ( no idea if FAA forcing Airbus to conform to freshly introduced certification
changes and in general keeping up some pressure unintentionally created a better product. )

Are these P2F mods applicable to frames with the modern wingtips (sharklets)?


Will take another decade for the sharklet(+NEO) models to enter the P2F domain.
But what would hinder a conversion?
Murphy is an optimist
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:27 am

U.S.-based Amerijet, currently an all-767F operator, will start piloting A321-200P2F operations as early as this month with a wet-leased aircraft from U.K.-based Titan Airways. The freighter is being brought in to cover some of Amerijet’s routes while its own aircraft undergo maintenance, but also to test how the new type could fit into its network.


https://cargofacts.com/allposts/business/strategy/amerijet-hires-titan-airways-a321p2f/

Interesting to see. Would be quite a door opener.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:06 pm

WIederling wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
I'd say it's pretty sad that a 30 year old example is comparable to one built the last five years from an economic/environmental standpoint. :(


It shows that back when the A320 project started all the right basic decisions were taken
_even_ when they came up as an initial limitation. ( like the A321 going from sideline product
to center stage.)

737 was apparently a more peaky product that needed pronounced whittling and remodeling
effort to come forward. ( no idea if FAA forcing Airbus to conform to freshly introduced certification
changes and in general keeping up some pressure unintentionally created a better product. )

Are these P2F mods applicable to frames with the modern wingtips (sharklets)?


Will take another decade for the sharklet(+NEO) models to enter the P2F domain.
But what would hinder a conversion?


The sharklets would be a new configuration so it would require a new certification. I wouldn’t count on it taking that long for sharklets to enter the freighter market, AEI has just certified split scimitar wingtips on the 737-809 freighter
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WIederling
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:11 pm

Spacepope wrote:
The sharklets would be a new configuration so it would require a new certification. I wouldn’t count on it taking that long for sharklets to enter the freighter market, AEI has just certified split scimitar wingtips on the 737-809 freighter


Isn't the conversion just an STC on the basic airframe?

cert amendment for the sharklets?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Spacepope
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:49 pm

WIederling wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
The sharklets would be a new configuration so it would require a new certification. I wouldn’t count on it taking that long for sharklets to enter the freighter market, AEI has just certified split scimitar wingtips on the 737-809 freighter


Isn't the conversion just an STC on the basic airframe?

cert amendment for the sharklets?


Yes. On the 767-300 there are different certifications based on engine types too, which is one reason you don't see RR powered aircraft. Winglet vs no winglet is also a different configuration.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
a2b7
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:55 am

Aviationweek reports that the conversion of the first A320P2F has started at XSP, see https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... conversion , which is MSN 2737 (ex-IndiGo), and has V2500 engines.
 
VSMUT
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:54 am

a2b7 wrote:
Aviationweek reports that the conversion of the first A320P2F has started at XSP, see https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... conversion , which is MSN 2737 (ex-IndiGo), and has V2500 engines.


Any idea where it is going after conversion?
 
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:33 am

DHL is entering the A321P2F operator arena.

SmartLynx Malta has signed an agreement with Deutsche Post DHL Group to operate Airbus A321 freighter aircraft for the postal company.

The charter airline will add two converted A321P2F (“Passenger to Freighter”) to its fleet, which will then be operated for DHL Express’ European network under a wet-lease scheme. The deal comes as the company is looking add capacity amid rising demand for express cargo.


and

In a press release, the companies say that SmartLynx Malta plans to add two additional Airbus A321 converted freighter aircraft to its fleet in 2021, and ‘up to’ four more in 2022.


https://www.ifn.news/posts/smartlynx-malta-to-operate-airbus-a321-freighters-for-dhl/

https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/press/press-archive/2021/dhl-express-and-smartlynx-malta-partner-to-break-new-ground-in-cargo-transportation.html
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
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flee
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:40 am

I think the A320 family will be Airbus' most successful freighter as there will be a lot of feedstock for conversion in the coming years.
 
a2b7
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:48 pm

There is a nice article at https://vallair.aero/news/gregoire-lebi ... on-market/ with more details about the A321 conversion programs:
* EFW/ST has got 12 conversion induction slots this year (11 A321P2F & the A320P2F prototype) and 19 in 2022, which are all commited.
* There already is a customer for the A320P2F prototype, but unfortunately it does not say who the customer is.
 
QF744ER
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:32 am

Titans #2 A321P2F has just concluded its delivery flight back to the UK from XSP, flew under the rego of G-NIKO but believe it will become G-POWZ.

Does anyone know what’s currently in XSP now undergoing conversion on the P2F lines? I Bellevue there’s a JQ A321 up there but not sure where it is in the conversion queue.
 
a2b7
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Re: A321 P2F News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:53 am

QF744ER wrote:
Titans #2 A321P2F has just concluded its delivery flight back to the UK from XSP, flew under the rego of G-NIKO but believe it will become G-POWZ.

Does anyone know what’s currently in XSP now undergoing conversion on the P2F lines? I Bellevue there’s a JQ A321 up there but not sure where it is in the conversion queue.

As far as I am aware of there is only the A320P2F prototype currently being converted in XSP, but no JQ A321 yet. There was some confusion upthread about a JQ A321 that was at XSP for maintenance.

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