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RCS763AV
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Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:55 pm

Continuing its network re-focus and financial restructuring, Avianca is shifting capacity away from LIM towards its BOG hub. The management's strategy is to make BOG the leading connecting hub of the americas in a couple of years. Although it might prove difficult given the airport's infrastructure constraints and the fact that AV has a lot of catching up to do with its peers on the operational side, if this expansion is succesful and more continue throughout the following years, BOG will surely become a force to reckon with (not that it isn't already, but it does need to consolidate more).

https://www.dinero.com/empresas/articulo/cuales-son-las-nuevas-rutas-y-frecuencias-de-avianca-en-2020/280801
(Article talks about the refocus but all reoutes displayed in this post are taken from several sources)

So far, for the northern summer schedule, Avianca has announced the following changes to the BOG schedule:

International
BOG-EZE: from 1x A332 1x A320 to 1x A332 and 1x 788, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-LAX: from 1x 788 to 1x A332, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-MEX: from 1x 788 2x A320 to 2x A332 1x A320, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-MIA: from 1x A332 3x A319/20 to 1x A332 1x A321 2x A319/20, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-JFK: from 2x A333 1x A319 to 2x A333 1x 788, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-MCO: from 1x A320 to 1x A321, eff. March 29, 2020 + seasonal 1x A320 June 12 to August 16, 2020.
BOG-SCL: from 1x 788 2x A320 to 1x A332 2x A320, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-SDQ: from 1x A319 to 1x A319 1x A320, eff. March 29, 2020
BOG-CUN: from 2x A320 to 1x 788 1x A320, eff. March 30, 2020
BOG-FLL: from 1x A320 to 1x A320 + seasonal 1x A320 June 12 to August 16, 2020
BOG-GRU: 3rd daily flight resumes with A320, for 1x A332, 2x A320 eff. March 30, 2020
BOG-GIG: from 1x A320 to 1x A320 + 5xw A319 eff. March 28, 2020.
BOG-IAD: from 1x A320 to 1x A320 1x A319 eff. March 30, 2020
BOG-MUC from 5xw 788 to 4xw 788 eff. March 29, 2020 (the only systemwide decrease from BOG)
BOG-PUJ: from 2x A320 to 1x A320 + 1x A332 eff.
BOG-AUA: from 11xw A32S to 2x A32S

Domestic (schedules will be upgraded progressively from March to June):

BOG-MZL: from 4x to 5x ATR-72
BOG-IBE: from 4x to 5x ATR-72
BOG-VVC: from 3x to 5x ATR-72
BOG-CRZ from 1x to 3x ATR-72
BOG-PPN from 3x to 4x ATR-72

Other announcements are expected throughtout the rest of the year. Management has spoken more capacity increases and at least two new destinations (one of them will be POA from june, which is being cut from LIM, and the other will most likely by CDG, due to a recent route application).

My comments:

- City pairs such as BOG-NYC, BOG-MEX, BOG-LIM and BOG-MIA/FLL are quickly becoming some of the busiest routes in the region.

- It is a very big bet, capacity wise, for a region which has had a sluggish economy with no signs of recovery in the near future. A320s are getting reconfigured to seat more passengers, and AV will have an unprecedented use of widebodies on medium haul routes. It's not a given that the airline will be able to fill all those seats profitably.

Let's see how it plays out, Anko van der Werff seems to know a lot about revenue management.

- More US destinations, especially when the JV with UA is signed, will probably be launched. SFO is almost a given, maybe even for 2020. Canada has also been spoken of many times.

- Even with the improvements which are being carried out, BOG is expected to reach its operational limit (40m pax) in less 5 years (2018 figures were 32.5m pax). However, OPAIN (BOG's concessionaire) is carrying out the final designs for an unsolicited PPP in order to expand the aiport's capacity to 70m pax. Nonetheless, if all timings go right, BOG won't start being expanded for at least another two years and works might not be done for at least six to years.

- Although it is exciting to have all these increases from BOG, it is sad that some of them are coming at the detriment of LIM. Also some point-to-point routes are getting axed in favor of the two remaining hubs: the traditional CTG-MIA is ending on March 29 and SAP-JFK is being re-routed bia SAL.
 
alexdelzotto1
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:07 pm

I'm guessing now that AC is staring YUL-BOG, AV has no plans to launch it anymore?
 
nickpo
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:27 pm

Definitely a good strategy, they need to take care of what they really own and where they have the "power". It was really hard for them to try to keep a "hub" in Lima with the competitor being extremely aggressive and them not having to power to compete. They understood that they can react from Bogota without loosing a bunch of money in Lima. Colombia is in a very good economical position right now in the region and they have to take advantage of that.
LatinAirliner
 
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United787
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:59 pm

Sad to see ORD-BOG not coming back in their immediate plans. That flight barely had time to get started. Maybe UA will give it a shot once the MAX disaster is resolved.
 
A388
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:12 pm

nickpo wrote:
Definitely a good strategy, they need to take care of what they really own and where they have the "power". It was really hard for them to try to keep a "hub" in Lima with the competitor being extremely aggressive and them not having to power to compete. They understood that they can react from Bogota without loosing a bunch of money in Lima. Colombia is in a very good economical position right now in the region and they have to take advantage of that.


I can totally see what you mean but at the same time I'm wondering, Peru's economy has also been good over the past few years what I read, so why not build a hub there? LATAM also started in LIM as a foreign airline, just like Avianca did, right? For some reason Avianca didn't come out as the winner. I would like to know what went wrong for Avianca as LATAM clearly did succeed. Was LATAM too aggressive or Avianca too passive which resulted in LATAM being the winner here?

A388
 
clo1973
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:18 pm

I would also add that after cuts last year, AV is increasing:

CLO-MDE to 7 flights / day (all A320)
CLO-TCO from 1 to 2 flights / day (all ATR 72)
CLO-MDE-JFK daily operation changes from A319 to A320
CLO-MAD from 6x to 7x (all 787)
 
RCS763AV
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:55 pm

United787 wrote:
Sad to see ORD-BOG not coming back in their immediate plans. That flight barely had time to get started. Maybe UA will give it a shot once the MAX disaster is resolved.


I'm sure that now that the company has some breathing room financially and with the JV with UA coming soon, we'll se them back on BOG-ORD/BOS in 2021.
 
nickpo
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:00 pm

A388 wrote:
nickpo wrote:
Definitely a good strategy, they need to take care of what they really own and where they have the "power". It was really hard for them to try to keep a "hub" in Lima with the competitor being extremely aggressive and them not having to power to compete. They understood that they can react from Bogota without loosing a bunch of money in Lima. Colombia is in a very good economical position right now in the region and they have to take advantage of that.


I can totally see what you mean but at the same time I'm wondering, Peru's economy has also been good over the past few years what I read, so why not build a hub there? LATAM also started in LIM as a foreign airline, just like Avianca did, right? For some reason Avianca didn't come out as the winner. I would like to know what went wrong for Avianca as LATAM clearly did succeed. Was LATAM too aggressive or Avianca too passive which resulted in LATAM being the winner here?

A388


Yes Peru as well has a very good economy right now.

Regarding your statement, for sure there is no right or wrong answer, but I will try to figure it out. Both airlines, Lan Peru and Taca Peru started around the same year, Lan Peru in 1998 and Taca Peru in 1999, which means nothing when talking about why Latam was able to win the battle. They probably started larger and their growth was much more aggressive, the merger between Taca and Avianca was when already Lan had a larger Peruvian operation, then Avianca was already in a difficult position to fight the battle. The competitor had a larger piece of the pie and the competitor also was already entering the Colombian market buying Aires. (The purchase of Aires was around the same period Avianca and Taca started their merge). For then, they needed to take care of Colombia and try to do something with Peru.

I still think they stayed in Peru much more than they needed, it was a market that they never were going to win without being extremely aggressive and having a huge pocket with a lot of cash, which they did not. Peru was still a secondary market for Taca, so if it was on Taca's hand, they first had as a priority San Salvador rather than Lima.

I think Avianca now is not in the position of being a huge Latin american carrier to compete with Latam, they need to recover financially as a smaller airline and then again try to think of expanding to the south, because they'll needed sometime.
LatinAirliner
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:12 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
The management's strategy is to make BOG the leading connecting hub of the americas in a couple of years.


They can dream but it's not going to happen. Among other reasons:

Elevation PTY: 69 feet

Elevation BOG: 8,360 feet

That compromises range or payload for every departing aircraft.
 
nickpo
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
The management's strategy is to make BOG the leading connecting hub of the americas in a couple of years.


They can dream but it's not going to happen. Among other reasons:

Elevation PTY: 69 feet

Elevation BOG: 8,360 feet

That compromises range or payload for every departing aircraft.


You are right.

Still, BOG has the passengers which PTY is not even close to have the OD movement there is in BOG.

Bogota is not that bad geographically located, its elevation is the bad side there, but aircraft/engines manufactures are helping a bit there to reduce that impact with newer developments. So I don't see that dream very far away.
LatinAirliner
 
RCS763AV
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:25 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
The management's strategy is to make BOG the leading connecting hub of the americas in a couple of years.


They can dream but it's not going to happen. Among other reasons:

Elevation PTY: 69 feet

Elevation BOG: 8,360 feet

That compromises range or payload for every departing aircraft.


Well, first of all, BOG is already a very large connection hub. Second of all, narrowbodies have been reaching destinations 6+ hrs away from BOG since the 1990s (first 757, then A319 and 73G and now the NEOs and MAXs). Third, as said above, BOG has an actually large local market. Fourth, Avianca is offering excellent connectivity to Europe, something that is not in CM's business model, something which opens up a lot of demand. And fifth, BOG´s grographic location is actually mildly better than PTY to connect from deep south america to the eastern US, it is in a straight line with the most important destinations, taking off i'd say some 30-40m flying time in comparison to PTY (imagine someone flying EZE-BOG-MCO or EZE-PTY-MCO).

Additionally, the only destinations not reachable by narrowbodies from BOG in the americas are in the West Coast of the United States and Canada, but AV has widebodies for that.

So I don't agree with your statement about BOG's altitude posing a limit to its development as a hub. It already is a very important hub and has all the potential to become the leading one over PTY.

What worries me actually is the necessary infrastructure not coming along in time. But the business is so lucrative that OPAIN must be pushing as hard as they can to develop their unsolicited PPP. Such PPP would increase BOG's capacity form 40M to up to 80M passengers per year, with 60M in the first stage of development.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:22 am

RCS763AV wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
The management's strategy is to make BOG the leading connecting hub of the americas in a couple of years.


They can dream but it's not going to happen. Among other reasons:

Elevation PTY: 69 feet

Elevation BOG: 8,360 feet

That compromises range or payload for every departing aircraft.


Well, first of all, BOG is already a very large connection hub. Second of all, narrowbodies have been reaching destinations 6+ hrs away from BOG since the 1990s (first 757, then A319 and 73G and now the NEOs and MAXs). Third, as said above, BOG has an actually large local market. Fourth, Avianca is offering excellent connectivity to Europe, something that is not in CM's business model, something which opens up a lot of demand. And fifth, BOG´s grographic location is actually mildly better than PTY to connect from deep south america to the eastern US, it is in a straight line with the most important destinations, taking off i'd say some 30-40m flying time in comparison to PTY (imagine someone flying EZE-BOG-MCO or EZE-PTY-MCO).

Additionally, the only destinations not reachable by narrowbodies from BOG in the americas are in the West Coast of the United States and Canada, but AV has widebodies for that.

So I don't agree with your statement about BOG's altitude posing a limit to its development as a hub. It already is a very important hub and has all the potential to become the leading one over PTY.

What worries me actually is the necessary infrastructure not coming along in time. But the business is so lucrative that OPAIN must be pushing as hard as they can to develop their unsolicited PPP. Such PPP would increase BOG's capacity form 40M to up to 80M passengers per year, with 60M in the first stage of development.

Seems that a fact that’s still unaccounted is that AV does have aircraft based in its SAL hub and also flying the same destinations from BOG but from several major Colombian cities; every aircraft flying destinations already served to/from BOG but to/from SAL, MDE, CLO, BAQ, CTG, BGA... ia an aircraft less for a new destination from AV’s BOG hub.
One thing is to attract traffic for AV XXX-BOG-SAL-YYY where YYY isn’t flown from BOG, another XX-BOG-MDE/CLO-YYY when YYY has flights from BOG.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
RCS763AV
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:49 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

They can dream but it's not going to happen. Among other reasons:

Elevation PTY: 69 feet

Elevation BOG: 8,360 feet

That compromises range or payload for every departing aircraft.


Well, first of all, BOG is already a very large connection hub. Second of all, narrowbodies have been reaching destinations 6+ hrs away from BOG since the 1990s (first 757, then A319 and 73G and now the NEOs and MAXs). Third, as said above, BOG has an actually large local market. Fourth, Avianca is offering excellent connectivity to Europe, something that is not in CM's business model, something which opens up a lot of demand. And fifth, BOG´s grographic location is actually mildly better than PTY to connect from deep south america to the eastern US, it is in a straight line with the most important destinations, taking off i'd say some 30-40m flying time in comparison to PTY (imagine someone flying EZE-BOG-MCO or EZE-PTY-MCO).

Additionally, the only destinations not reachable by narrowbodies from BOG in the americas are in the West Coast of the United States and Canada, but AV has widebodies for that.

So I don't agree with your statement about BOG's altitude posing a limit to its development as a hub. It already is a very important hub and has all the potential to become the leading one over PTY.

What worries me actually is the necessary infrastructure not coming along in time. But the business is so lucrative that OPAIN must be pushing as hard as they can to develop their unsolicited PPP. Such PPP would increase BOG's capacity form 40M to up to 80M passengers per year, with 60M in the first stage of development.

Seems that a fact that’s still unaccounted is that AV does have aircraft based in its SAL hub and also flying the same destinations from BOG but from several major Colombian cities; every aircraft flying destinations already served to/from BOG but to/from SAL, MDE, CLO, BAQ, CTG, BGA... ia an aircraft less for a new destination from AV’s BOG hub.
One thing is to attract traffic for AV XXX-BOG-SAL-YYY where YYY isn’t flown from BOG, another XX-BOG-MDE/CLO-YYY when YYY has flights from BOG.


AV has another hub in SAL which takes very good care of the local market and is healthy. I wouldn't expect SAL to be developed further for South America connections unless there is a big infrastructure constraint in BOG. The only destinations which are duplicate are markets where AV has a large local presence (GYE, UIO and LIM).

Additionally, having point-to-point flights from other Colombian cities to key destinations with big volumes (MAD, MIA and JFK) not only serves the large and decentralized colombian market, it frees up BOG slots and available seats for more lucrative International-to-International connections and BOG's own O/D market.

Even so, a lot of point-to-point flying has been cut to centralize resources at BOG, routes like LIM-MDE/CLO, JFK-CTG-PEI and SAL-MDE/CLO/CTG already got the axe, and CTG-MIA is leaving the network soon. It seems AV will only remain in those international p2p routes which have large volume and/or strategically decongest BOG. Namely:

MIA-MDE/CLO/BAQ
GYE-CLO (it feeds CLO-MAD)
MAD-CLO/MDE
JFK-MDE-CLO
 
A388
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:27 pm

nickpo wrote:
Yes Peru as well has a very good economy right now.

Regarding your statement, for sure there is no right or wrong answer, but I will try to figure it out. Both airlines, Lan Peru and Taca Peru started around the same year, Lan Peru in 1998 and Taca Peru in 1999, which means nothing when talking about why Latam was able to win the battle. They probably started larger and their growth was much more aggressive, the merger between Taca and Avianca was when already Lan had a larger Peruvian operation, then Avianca was already in a difficult position to fight the battle. The competitor had a larger piece of the pie and the competitor also was already entering the Colombian market buying Aires. (The purchase of Aires was around the same period Avianca and Taca started their merge). For then, they needed to take care of Colombia and try to do something with Peru.

I still think they stayed in Peru much more than they needed, it was a market that they never were going to win without being extremely aggressive and having a huge pocket with a lot of cash, which they did not. Peru was still a secondary market for Taca, so if it was on Taca's hand, they first had as a priority San Salvador rather than Lima.

I think Avianca now is not in the position of being a huge Latin american carrier to compete with Latam, they need to recover financially as a smaller airline and then again try to think of expanding to the south, because they'll needed sometime.


Thanks nickpro. I had a feeling it had to do with LATAM being much more agressive then Avianca. How is LATAM doing in the Colombian market at BOG? I get the impression they aren't that aggressive in BOG, I haven't seen much expansion from their side in BOG (more airplanes or more routes?). Is LATAM having difficulties in competing against Avianca in BOG, just as how Avianca couldn't compete head on with LATAM in Peru?

A388
 
DCA350
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:41 pm

Interesting they are down gauging LAX product wise from the 787 to the A330. I thought that was a lucrative market for them.
 
RCS763AV
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:43 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Interesting they are down gauging LAX product wise from the 787 to the A330. I thought that was a lucrative market for them.


There really isn't much difference between the cabin of the A330 and the 787, seat-wise. I do think they're quite succesful in LAX.
 
nickpo
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:13 pm

A388 wrote:
nickpo wrote:
Yes Peru as well has a very good economy right now.

Regarding your statement, for sure there is no right or wrong answer, but I will try to figure it out. Both airlines, Lan Peru and Taca Peru started around the same year, Lan Peru in 1998 and Taca Peru in 1999, which means nothing when talking about why Latam was able to win the battle. They probably started larger and their growth was much more aggressive, the merger between Taca and Avianca was when already Lan had a larger Peruvian operation, then Avianca was already in a difficult position to fight the battle. The competitor had a larger piece of the pie and the competitor also was already entering the Colombian market buying Aires. (The purchase of Aires was around the same period Avianca and Taca started their merge). For then, they needed to take care of Colombia and try to do something with Peru.

I still think they stayed in Peru much more than they needed, it was a market that they never were going to win without being extremely aggressive and having a huge pocket with a lot of cash, which they did not. Peru was still a secondary market for Taca, so if it was on Taca's hand, they first had as a priority San Salvador rather than Lima.

I think Avianca now is not in the position of being a huge Latin american carrier to compete with Latam, they need to recover financially as a smaller airline and then again try to think of expanding to the south, because they'll needed sometime.


Thanks nickpro. I had a feeling it had to do with LATAM being much more agressive then Avianca. How is LATAM doing in the Colombian market at BOG? I get the impression they aren't that aggressive in BOG, I haven't seen much expansion from their side in BOG (more airplanes or more routes?). Is LATAM having difficulties in competing against Avianca in BOG, just as how Avianca couldn't compete head on with LATAM in Peru?

A388


In the past, when Avianca had domestic operations in Peru, people use to say "Avianca losses in Peru what Latam losses in Colombia" and was a win win situation. I don't track Latam Colombia's financials, but I read in another forum that Latam in Colombia is always in red numbers, and they keep it that way only to not let Avianca or other competitor grow. They actually invested some money last year in Colombia domestic operations and I think they included 2 or 3 additional aircraft in the Colombia's fleet, they had a bunch of new frequencies in the Bogota-Cali market, and some in Cartagena and Medellin, but I personally think from what I've seen, that those are not going to work, the load factors are very low now. To conclude, I think is a matter of how deep is their pocket to keep wasting cash there, and now with Avianca growing more and more in Bogota, is going to be even harder - Avianca came out of Peru, but Peru is now with a lot of low-cost competition, which is not a win situation for Latam.
LatinAirliner
 
DCA350
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:30 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Interesting they are down gauging LAX product wise from the 787 to the A330. I thought that was a lucrative market for them.


There really isn't much difference between the cabin of the A330 and the 787, seat-wise. I do think they're quite succesful in LAX.


Yes, but I was specifically talking about the J product. The 787s have the new 4 across J, while the A330s still have the old 6 across. But if they can get away with it, using the 787s to Europe makes more sense.

But overall still very impressive plans.. The fact that they can send flights to Europe from 3 cities speaks to the robustness of the Colombian economy, I believe only Brazil has more in Latin America. No need to reinforce mini hubs like Lima, just focus on the local market until the financials are back in order.
 
Avianca
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:14 pm

what I noted that AV as per summer Schedule massively changed the ETA / ETD of the flights, asume to get as well a better utilization of their fleet
Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
 
RCS763AV
Topic Author
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:24 am

Avianca wrote:
what I noted that AV as per summer Schedule massively changed the ETA / ETD of the flights, asume to get as well a better utilization of their fleet


Are they increasing or decreasing block times? I could asusme decreasing? That's going to be a tough adjustment operations wise. AV has historically had very poor on-time records.

On other news, during the 100 years celebrations in BOG a couple of days ago, Anko van der Werff, apart form stating that the company's finances have turned around, announced the following:

- Two new routes to Brazil apart from BOG-POA (maybe the return of BOG-BSB, return of one of the Nordeste region routes, BOG-CNF?)
- BOG-YYZ
- New BOG-Europe route to be announced in a few weeks (it's going to be CDG, they already asked for authority)
- New Avianca Regional base at EOH (Medellín City airport), ATR ops to regional destinations. My guess: UIB, APO, CRZ, PEI, AXM, IBE to start. Maybe MZL (Manizales) but with the new road improvements it's a bit less than three hours to Medellín so demand must have softened.

The news (in spanish):

https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/empresas/nueva-estrategia-de-avianca-de-tarifas-internacionales-para-ser-rentables-456934
 
pipeafcr
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:44 am

alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I'm guessing now that AC is staring YUL-BOG, AV has no plans to launch it anymore?


Interesting enough AV will not fly to YUL but rather YYZ. They recently applied and received approval to launch non-stop operations from BOG
Felipe Carrillo
 
Avianca
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:40 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
Avianca wrote:
what I noted that AV as per summer Schedule massively changed the ETA / ETD of the flights, asume to get as well a better utilization of their fleet


Are they increasing or decreasing block times? I could asusme decreasing? That's going to be a tough adjustment operations wise. AV has historically had very poor on-time records.

On other news, during the 100 years celebrations in BOG a couple of days ago, Anko van der Werff, apart form stating that the company's finances have turned around, announced the following:

- Two new routes to Brazil apart from BOG-POA (maybe the return of BOG-BSB, return of one of the Nordeste region routes, BOG-CNF?)
- BOG-YYZ
- New BOG-Europe route to be announced in a few weeks (it's going to be CDG, they already asked for authority)
- New Avianca Regional base at EOH (Medellín City airport), ATR ops to regional destinations. My guess: UIB, APO, CRZ, PEI, AXM, IBE to start. Maybe MZL (Manizales) but with the new road improvements it's a bit less than three hours to Medellín so demand must have softened.

The news (in spanish):

https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/empresas/nueva-estrategia-de-avianca-de-tarifas-internacionales-para-ser-rentables-456934


beside CDG - what other market in EUR could be logical, maybe FCO? also interesting to see how the MUC flight will develop - have used it several times so far always fully booked - but mostly with quite low fares to be honest eco and business
Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
 
N292UX
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:59 pm

I feel like there's a few cities in Peru that AV could get to work from BOG besides LIM/CUZ. I feel like IQT/PCL/AQP may be able to work.
 
yulexpansion
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:03 pm

pipeafcr wrote:
alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I'm guessing now that AC is staring YUL-BOG, AV has no plans to launch it anymore?


Interesting enough AV will not fly to YUL but rather YYZ. They recently applied and received approval to launch non-stop operations from BOG


Have they actually obtained approval? I believe the flight is not selling.
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:39 pm

I would love to see them return to BOS eventually.
"If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline"-Richard Branson
 
pipeafcr
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:33 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
pipeafcr wrote:
alexdelzotto1 wrote:
I'm guessing now that AC is staring YUL-BOG, AV has no plans to launch it anymore?


Interesting enough AV will not fly to YUL but rather YYZ. They recently applied and received approval to launch non-stop operations from BOG


Have they actually obtained approval? I believe the flight is not selling.


Not sure how it works on the Canadian side but they have the go-ahead from Colombian gov
Felipe Carrillo
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:44 am

Avianca wrote:
Beside CDG - what other market in EUR could be logical, maybe FCO? also interesting to see how the MUC flight will develop - have used it several times so far always fully booked - but mostly with quite low fares to be honest eco and business
Star Alliance hubs ZRH and LIS? VIE, BRU and CPH might seem quite odd for AV but IMHO BOG (Colombia) does have an interesting critical mass (TK has proven that) and AV could get some feed to ZRH, LIS, BRU or CPH flights.
If AV already does well with daily to BCN, BOB-AGP, at least thrice weekly, could attract some traffic.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
babastud
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:54 am

Will we see SFO?
 
aircountry
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:03 am

Will they going to add IAH from BOG?
 
Avianca
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:46 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
Avianca wrote:
Beside CDG - what other market in EUR could be logical, maybe FCO? also interesting to see how the MUC flight will develop - have used it several times so far always fully booked - but mostly with quite low fares to be honest eco and business
Star Alliance hubs ZRH and LIS? VIE, BRU and CPH might seem quite odd for AV but IMHO BOG (Colombia) does have an interesting critical mass (TK has proven that) and AV could get some feed to ZRH, LIS, BRU or CPH flights.
If AV already does well with daily to BCN, BOB-AGP, at least thrice weekly, could attract some traffic.


ZRH is to near from Muc and LIS i think their is not enough demand connecting from Bog to other LATAM countries. CDG should be the natural next Europe destination.
Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
 
RCS763AV
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:18 am

We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.
 
Avianca
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:35 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.


if I am not wrong Avianca had years ago flights to Alicante. I am not sure if other spain cities have a large population of Peruvians / Ecuadorians etc. - might be a good business case as well - connecting as you mentioned VLC / BIO to Colombia but as well to other LATAM countries beyond BOG
Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
 
ORD2010
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:55 pm

Any chance we’d see them return to BOG-ORD? The route didn’t have enough time to mature.
 
bravotango75
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:15 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see them return to BOS eventually.

Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.
 
nickpo
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:08 pm

Avianca wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.


if I am not wrong Avianca had years ago flights to Alicante. I am not sure if other spain cities have a large population of Peruvians / Ecuadorians etc. - might be a good business case as well - connecting as you mentioned VLC / BIO to Colombia but as well to other LATAM countries beyond BOG


The flight to Alicante was a pre-requisite from the Spanish authorities to be able to launch flights to Barcelona, the flight was BOG-ALC-BCN, then after Avianca operated that schedule for a while, they were cleared to remove the stop in Alicante and that way operate non-stop flights to Barcelona.
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marcecar10
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:36 am

RCS763AV wrote:
We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.


Where have you been?! Yes, the two-weekly service outside of Lima is to keep another frecuency. True. But I don't think you have been following the situation in Peru very recently.

CM now has six daily flights to LIM and the two-weekly service you mention pulled out of IQT and started, some time later, to CIX in the Peruvian north coast. Right now, that's the situation. CM says they're doing fine in CIX and with much better results than IQT which were abysmal. They say they might add more frequencies to CIX but nothing has happened so far.

On other moves regarding the CM group, Wingo (who has Colombian AOC) is now starting a two-weekly service from BLB to LIM. So I guess they're really interested in the Peru market.
 
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:45 am

bravotango75 wrote:
NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see them return to BOS eventually.

Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.


It’s a non-existent local market that relies on low-yield Brazil traffic flows. Boston isn’t coming back. Nor is Chicago which is similar, but at least Chicago has a Star hub on the other end giving it a better shot at revival.
a.
 
dcajet
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:55 am

babastud wrote:
Will we see SFO?


Avianca already operates at SFO from the SAL hub. With BOG's altitude and the wind component on the northwest bound leg, an A320/319 would be hit with serious performance restrictions making it to SFO. A wide body (A332/788) is simply too big for the kind of profitable demand AV would see at SFO. Heck, even COPA has restrictions with the 738 on the PTY-SFO leg and PTY's at sea level.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:56 am

bravotango75 wrote:
NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see them return to BOS eventually.

Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.


Did you miss the part where AV launched BOS and cancelled it shortly afterward because it was a giant dud? ORD too.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
aircountry
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:38 am

Will we see SFO?

Will they going to add IAH from BOG?

wow nobody response on both! Most talking about other cities instead SFO and IAH.
 
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:30 am

marcecar10 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.


Where have you been?! Yes, the two-weekly service outside of Lima is to keep another frecuency. True. But I don't think you have been following the situation in Peru very recently.

CM now has six daily flights to LIM and the two-weekly service you mention pulled out of IQT and started, some time later, to CIX in the Peruvian north coast. Right now, that's the situation. CM says they're doing fine in CIX and with much better results than IQT which were abysmal. They say they might add more frequencies to CIX but nothing has happened so far.

On other moves regarding the CM group, Wingo (who has Colombian AOC) is now starting a two-weekly service from BLB to LIM. So I guess they're really interested in the Peru market.


I've been here all along. And I haven't been saying they are not interested in the peruvian market, just that it's too LIM-centric for any other cities to warrant the launch of operations (maybe CUZ would cut it but it has operational issues). I'm sorry, but how can you say 2x weekly frequencies to CIX (sorry for the confusion, forgot the service moved from IQT) make for a market that is not centered in LIM?

Just take a look at markets like Colombia, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Argentina, Venezuela or Mexico and how CM distributes their frequencies amongst several cities. As an example, of the 7 cities served by CM/Wingo in Colombia, the one with the lowest frequency to PTY is BGA at 4x weekly flights. All other cities are served more than daily, and sometimes with up to 5x daily flights, in addition to the 8x daily frequencies to BOG. Yes, the lowest frequency seen in Colombia is twice that of CIX.

nickpo wrote:
Avianca wrote:
[


The flight to Alicante was a pre-requisite from the Spanish authorities to be able to launch flights to Barcelona, the flight was BOG-ALC-BCN, then after Avianca operated that schedule for a while, they were cleared to remove the stop in Alicante and that way operate non-stop flights to Barcelona.


Indeed it was. The local market form Alicante (although it has a large-ish colombian community) must be close to zero except for some occasional low-yielding VFR passengers.
LAXdude1023 wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
NickolayAv wrote:
I would love to see them return to BOS eventually.

Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.


Did you miss the part where AV launched BOS and cancelled it shortly afterward because it was a giant dud? ORD too.


That's not accurate. AV cancelled BOS and ORD because it had to cut back a lot of international flying, especially destinations which were in the development stage, because it ran out of cash thanks to the disaster that was the Efromovich management at the end. BOS and ORD will eventually come back as they need to diversify their porfolio of connections in BOG to remain competitive.

dcajet wrote:
babastud wrote:
Will we see SFO?


Avianca already operates at SFO from the SAL hub. With BOG's altitude and the wind component on the northwest bound leg, an A320/319 would be hit with serious performance restrictions making it to SFO. A wide body (A332/788) is simply too big for the kind of profitable demand AV would see at SFO. Heck, even COPA has restrictions with the 738 on the PTY-SFO leg and PTY's at sea level.


Why are you so confident that a widebody is too large? CM fills up two daily 738s to the brim to SFO, not counting the pax flying via other US hubs, SAL and MEX to South America. A market is there, so much that LATAM even tried LIM-SFO 4x weekly on the 763 a few years back.

Of course, LATAM failed, but:

1. They didin't have UA and Star feed plus FF base at the SFO end, plus a soon to come JV agreement.
2. The flight overflew Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, arguably the second, sixth and eigth largest markets in South America, something a flight to BOG wouldn't do.
3. They were in the middle of a restructuring process as they were running into heavy losses after absorbing TAM.
4. The A332 and specially the 788 are more efficient aircraft than the 763, plus the stage length of BOG-SFO is slightly shorter, making the flight less costly to operate.

Also, Anko van der Werff, AV's CEO, has publically said more than twice that he wants to bring SFO to BOG soon. It's coming and it's coming fast.
 
babastud
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:12 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
marcecar10 wrote:
RCS763AV wrote:
We'll see CDG, YYZ and SFO plus the two new Brazilian routes announed/started this year for sure. Next year we´ll probably see the return of ORD and BOS, and the consolidation of the new frequencies and capacity upgrades that have been launched throughout the whole network.

New Spain routes have always been a dream of mine. AV already proved that by decentralizing the Spain network they can garner large profits (look at the success of BOG-BCN or CLO-MAD). I would point to cities which have sizeable colombian/ecuadorean/peruvian communities combined with large business sectors with ties to Latin America. That combination gives two cities in Spain not currently served by AV: BIO and VLC.

Speaking of peruvian cities, since Peru is so Lima-centric, historically there hasn't been much business or tourist demand/yield to other peruvian cities besides CUZ. I don't know if the markets are quite there yet for a non-stop BOG connection. Hell, CM's twice-weekly E190 flight to IQT is only flown so they can keep flying 5x daily to LIM.

On a side note, continuing with the restructuring process, AV will be decreasing frequencies throughout its mainline domestic network. However, capacity will remain essentially the same, as now more flights will be flown by A320 and A321, and the reconfiguration will densify the aircraft cabins by eliminating the separate Business Class. This allows for better utilization of resources and frees up slots at BOG for other operations.


Where have you been?! Yes, the two-weekly service outside of Lima is to keep another frecuency. True. But I don't think you have been following the situation in Peru very recently.

CM now has six daily flights to LIM and the two-weekly service you mention pulled out of IQT and started, some time later, to CIX in the Peruvian north coast. Right now, that's the situation. CM says they're doing fine in CIX and with much better results than IQT which were abysmal. They say they might add more frequencies to CIX but nothing has happened so far.

On other moves regarding the CM group, Wingo (who has Colombian AOC) is now starting a two-weekly service from BLB to LIM. So I guess they're really interested in the Peru market.


I've been here all along. And I haven't been saying they are not interested in the peruvian market, just that it's too LIM-centric for any other cities to warrant the launch of operations (maybe CUZ would cut it but it has operational issues). I'm sorry, but how can you say 2x weekly frequencies to CIX (sorry for the confusion, forgot the service moved from IQT) make for a market that is not centered in LIM?

Just take a look at markets like Colombia, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Argentina, Venezuela or Mexico and how CM distributes their frequencies amongst several cities. As an example, of the 7 cities served by CM/Wingo in Colombia, the one with the lowest frequency to PTY is BGA at 4x weekly flights. All other cities are served more than daily, and sometimes with up to 5x daily flights, in addition to the 8x daily frequencies to BOG. Yes, the lowest frequency seen in Colombia is twice that of CIX.

nickpo wrote:
Avianca wrote:
[


The flight to Alicante was a pre-requisite from the Spanish authorities to be able to launch flights to Barcelona, the flight was BOG-ALC-BCN, then after Avianca operated that schedule for a while, they were cleared to remove the stop in Alicante and that way operate non-stop flights to Barcelona.


Indeed it was. The local market form Alicante (although it has a large-ish colombian community) must be close to zero except for some occasional low-yielding VFR passengers.
LAXdude1023 wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.


Did you miss the part where AV launched BOS and cancelled it shortly afterward because it was a giant dud? ORD too.


That's not accurate. AV cancelled BOS and ORD because it had to cut back a lot of international flying, especially destinations which were in the development stage, because it ran out of cash thanks to the disaster that was the Efromovich management at the end. BOS and ORD will eventually come back as they need to diversify their porfolio of connections in BOG to remain competitive.

dcajet wrote:
babastud wrote:
Will we see SFO?


Avianca already operates at SFO from the SAL hub. With BOG's altitude and the wind component on the northwest bound leg, an A320/319 would be hit with serious performance restrictions making it to SFO. A wide body (A332/788) is simply too big for the kind of profitable demand AV would see at SFO. Heck, even COPA has restrictions with the 738 on the PTY-SFO leg and PTY's at sea level.


Why are you so confident that a widebody is too large? CM fills up two daily 738s to the brim to SFO, not counting the pax flying via other US hubs, SAL and MEX to South America. A market is there, so much that LATAM even tried LIM-SFO 4x weekly on the 763 a few years back.

Of course, LATAM failed, but:

1. They didin't have UA and Star feed plus FF base at the SFO end, plus a soon to come JV agreement.
2. The flight overflew Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, arguably the second, sixth and eigth largest markets in South America, something a flight to BOG wouldn't do.
3. They were in the middle of a restructuring process as they were running into heavy losses after absorbing TAM.
4. The A332 and specially the 788 are more efficient aircraft than the 763, plus the stage length of BOG-SFO is slightly shorter, making the flight less costly to operate.

Also, Anko van der Werff, AV's CEO, has publically said more than twice that he wants to bring SFO to BOG soon. It's coming and it's coming fast.


Also didin't they do 3x at one point to PTY. I'm pretty sure SFO can handle a 788 or 332 to BOG. Yes your info is correct about LATAM. Hope to see them expand in SFO soon.
 
dcajet
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:32 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
Why are you so confident that a widebody is too large? CM fills up two daily 738s to the brim to SFO, not counting the pax flying via other US hubs, SAL and MEX to South America. A market is there, so much that LATAM even tried LIM-SFO 4x weekly on the 763 a few years back.

Of course, LATAM failed, but:

1. They didin't have UA and Star feed plus FF base at the SFO end, plus a soon to come JV agreement.
2. The flight overflew Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, arguably the second, sixth and eigth largest markets in South America, something a flight to BOG wouldn't do.
3. They were in the middle of a restructuring process as they were running into heavy losses after absorbing TAM.
4. The A332 and specially the 788 are more efficient aircraft than the 763, plus the stage length of BOG-SFO is slightly shorter, making the flight less costly to operate.

Also, Anko van der Werff, AV's CEO, has publically said more than twice that he wants to bring SFO to BOG soon. It's coming and it's coming fast.


Oh the perennial SFO to South America dilemma/pipe dream... There is not enough profitable traffic from SFO to sustain what you propose. COPA already is doing what you propose Avianca would do, unless Avianca wishes to lose its shirt flying low yielding traffic flows to Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo, etc. I live in San Francisco and have lived in California most of my life. COPA has already cornered what little market there is with the right aircraft (737) and a network out of PTY (and a hub that works like a charm) that Avianca simply does not have. They have thrived with very small niche markets such as connecting the Napa/Sonoma and the Mendoza, Argentina wine regions and their many business links.Could AV top that? I don't think so. Every airline that over time has tried to connect South America to Northern California (VASP, LAN Peru/LATAM) has failed. Only COPA has succeeded. But hey, don't let me be a downer here and have a go at another fiasco like BOS or ORD. Wake me up when the first flight is on its way.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:28 pm

RCS763AV wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
bravotango75 wrote:
Indeed, BOS needs to be at the forefront of int'l expansion in the US alongside JFK, LAX, MIA, and even ORD. This is a shame that BOS was shunned.


Did you miss the part where AV launched BOS and cancelled it shortly afterward because it was a giant dud? ORD too.


That's not accurate. AV cancelled BOS and ORD because it had to cut back a lot of international flying, especially destinations which were in the development stage, because it ran out of cash thanks to the disaster that was the Efromovich management at the end. BOS and ORD will eventually come back as they need to diversify their porfolio of connections in BOG to remain competitive.



If Im being frank with you, I dont buy that. I think its a convenient excuse.

Time will tell I guess.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
NZ321
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:55 pm

Regardless of what is being hypothesized in this thread, the title is misleading. For AV whose main hub is BOG this is hardly a "massive" expansion. Just look at the figures. Resembles more a seasonal adjustment. Let's get some perspective here, I'd suggest. We're not talking daily frequencies to multiple new markets or anything like it.
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DGil
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:17 pm

I think there's a chance of BOS coming back to AV's network once they sort our their financial issues.

From January/2018 to August/2018, when they did 4x flights to BOS, they had an average LF of 87,5%. Not spectacular, but not that bad imo. They even increased to daily flights from September/2018 until the end of April/2019 when the route finally saw the ax and averaged 77,5% during that timeframe.

ORD had less encouraging results with an average LF of 77,6% during the six months the route operated (November/2018 to April/2019).
 
RCS763AV
Topic Author
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:41 pm

dcajet wrote:

Oh the perennial SFO to South America dilemma/pipe dream... There is not enough profitable traffic from SFO to sustain what you propose. COPA already is doing what you propose Avianca would do, unless Avianca wishes to lose its shirt flying low yielding traffic flows to Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo, etc. I live in San Francisco and have lived in California most of my life. COPA has already cornered what little market there is with the right aircraft (737) and a network out of PTY (and a hub that works like a charm) that Avianca simply does not have. They have thrived with very small niche markets such as connecting the Napa/Sonoma and the Mendoza, Argentina wine regions and their many business links.Could AV top that? I don't think so. Every airline that over time has tried to connect South America to Northern California (VASP, LAN Peru/LATAM) has failed. Only COPA has succeeded. But hey, don't let me be a downer here and have a go at another fiasco like BOS or ORD. Wake me up when the first flight is on its way.


So you're saying COPA fills 320 daily seats with people going to Mendoza, Chiclayo and Paramaribo? Give me a break. SFO serves the world's primary tech region and one of its top-tier financial centers, with one of the highest GDPs per capita.

The butts headed that way are going to GRU, SCL, BOG, EZE, MDE, LIM, GIG and CNF where there is thriving business or popular tourist destinations like and CTG, CUZ and BRC. Anything else is residual.

Maybe not enough demand to fill 50 biz class seats with 4000$ fares everyday? Sure. But that's also not the market AV is aiming for, they're not Cathay Pacific or JAL.

And also, a hub that works like a charm? Operationally maybe, but PTY is the biggest dump there is along with MEX in terms of Latin American hubs. It's almost unsanitary (that will change a bit with the new terminal 2 though). BOG, GRU's terminal 3, and even cramped old LIM are way nicer passenger experiences.

Also in my post I was only stating the obvious advantages an AV flight would have if it were to be operated now in comparison to failed attempts. And I'm stating that AV's CEO (who, I guess has a much bette runderstanding of the market than we do) has publicly said, both premises can reasonably lead to my conclusion that the flight might be launched soon.

LAXdude1023 wrote:



If Im being frank with you, I dont buy that. I think its a convenient excuse.

Time will tell I guess.[/quote]

Why convenient? They were both recently launched destinations which hadn't had the time to mature and were costing what new international routes cost before they mature. The airline was on the brink of financial collapse. Not only did they cut BOS and ORD from BOG but also MVD (which has since returned), SAL-MDE/CLO/CTG and had to practically shut down the LIM hub. Now with fresh working capital and an upcoming JV with UA the panorama is completely different.

Also, why is there this belief that AV and CM are chasing uber-high yield passengers to shuttle through BOG and PTY? That's not their model people.
 
2travel2know2
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:38 pm

IMHO, The massive size of BOG with its AV hub and the numbers of the Colombian market, sooner or later, could be able to support BOS, ORD and SFO non-stop flights. The key then might be in aircraft type, frequency, schedule and which immediate connections might be available in BOG.
In the meanwhile and this doesn't mean permanently, the most attractive and less risky option for AV is to operate narrow bodies from its SAL hub instead of BOG. Perhaps AV could eventually fly PHX, LAS, DEN, ABQ, MSP, SAT, MSY, YUL from its SAL hub too.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
PVD757
Posts: 3279
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:40 pm

DGil wrote:
I think there's a chance of BOS coming back to AV's network once they sort our their financial issues.

From January/2018 to August/2018, when they did 4x flights to BOS, they had an average LF of 87,5%. Not spectacular, but not that bad imo. They even increased to daily flights from September/2018 until the end of April/2019 when the route finally saw the ax and averaged 77,5% during that timeframe.

ORD had less encouraging results with an average LF of 77,6% during the six months the route operated (November/2018 to April/2019).


BOS was below ORD from September 2018 to April 2019.
 
DGil
Posts: 2
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Re: Avianca: massive BOG expansion in 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:43 am

PVD757 wrote:
DGil wrote:
I think there's a chance of BOS coming back to AV's network once they sort our their financial issues.

From January/2018 to August/2018, when they did 4x flights to BOS, they had an average LF of 87,5%. Not spectacular, but not that bad imo. They even increased to daily flights from September/2018 until the end of April/2019 when the route finally saw the ax and averaged 77,5% during that timeframe.

ORD had less encouraging results with an average LF of 77,6% during the six months the route operated (November/2018 to April/2019).


BOS was below ORD from September 2018 to April 2019.


Slightly below. But BOS had daily flights during those months whereas ORD had 4 weekly services. During the time BOS was 4x, it had very decent LF. Actually between April and August, the route performed consistently over 90%, that's why they increased it.

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