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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Delta 767 replacements will probably be the A330-800. Other airlines will evaluate 787 vs A330.
Neither are imo ideal for this market. Too big.


There won't be an alternative for some time. If you need to replace 767s in the next 5-7 years, the choice is A330neo or 787 (assuming A321XLR doesn't have the range required for your markets).
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:00 pm

Interesting. Must be hard having to start all over again on the airplane that was going to destroy the competition and every airline in the world was apparently begging Boeing for and creaming themselves over.

Hopefully, Boeing breaks the news gently to those poor airlines who were just couldn't wait for the planes.
Last edited by crimsonchin on Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:00 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Broken Record time

3 to 4 years ago, instead of plotting to destroy Bombardier's C Series, they could have bought it for next to nothing. 2 to 3 billion would have been highway robbery, the 100, 300 and the addition of a 500 would have covered the MAX 8 and down. Boeing could have then used this tune and that insight to clean sheet at new single aisle including a proper 757 and 767 replacement with 5k nm rangem.

They got cheap and continued to Frankenstein a 50 year old platform, got caught flatfooted with AB's snatching of the C Series and subsequent proper marketing and promise of longevity needed for it to sell. They go off and spend billions on Embraer for a plane that is truely niche considering that it will most likely never meet scope causes in the US and outdone by the former C-series for the 100 plus seat market. True the got tech indo but could have had the C Series tech instead. And...for the icing on the crap cake, their latest Lego version of the 737 was a death trap.

And let's not get into the new fueling tanker 767 issues for the military issues

The entire board needs swept clean.


You are completely right. More reason why former CEO was an idiot.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:01 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
Thats not really been Boeings 737 approach either, they hid things that the plane is doing from the pilots, hard to have final authority if you have no idea what the aircraft is doing, MCAS being the obvious example. There is also another thread running about the TK1951 crash where the 737 decided, in error, that it was close to the ground so shut the throttles without asking so yeah, no.. Its a great Boeing / Anet talking point but its simply not true.

As per my last post, I think we can assume the starting point for the next project won't be the 737 tech base. I'm not sure why this isn't obvious. And with the 777/787 tech the pilot can still stall the airplane if they chose to do so, with the Airbus system the plane will prevent it. Boeing is considering going to the Airbus approach (i.e. full envelope protection) and presumably beyond, since this isn't 1987 any more nor 1967.

ual763 wrote:
Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.

Another one of the reasons is Boeing counted on the pilot recognizing MCAS activation in 3 seconds or less and two sets of crew did not. This is also part of this recent interview with the CEO, he doubles down on that being the cause from Boeing's point of view. So it seems the new approach will be to engineer the human element out as much as possible.

TTailedTiger wrote:
The 777 and 787 are full FBW aircraft. Having a control column doesn't prohibit FBW. Boeing asked quite a few pilots if they wanted a sidestick when they were developing the 777. It's simply a preference and either works just fine. I can fly an SR22 just as well as I can fly a C172. But adding a sidestick to this new aircraft would add considerable cost as far as parts inventory and maintenance go. The 787 and 777 will still be in service for many years. You may as well keep as much similarity as possible.

I think whatever is next will not have common pilot rating mainly to break with the past. I could also see a full force feedback side stick, just like modern automobiles have fly by wire steering wheels, it frees up space and reduces weight while breaking with the past.

Noshow wrote:
So what sort of NMA did they design first that they now cannot use? It was a clean sheet as well. What went wrong? Production infrastructure? Sizing? Sizing NMA 2 will not become easier.

One thing we can think of is the last regime said NMA would be a manufacturing push but not a technology push. They in essence wanted to use NMA to prove out manufacturing tech that could be used for the higher volume NSA, and were going to try to reuse as much 787 tech as possible. Now Calhoun is saying that plan is done and investigating a new approach to flight control will be a central theme. It's more risky, but Boeing no longer has the resources to go with the earlier approach.

planecane wrote:
When you say "electric aircraft" to most people they assume you are talking about an airborne Tesla that is charged by wind and solar power. I don't know if there is much, if any benefit of using liquid fuel with onboard fuel cells and electric propulsion vs. just burning the fuel in a state of the art jet engine.

We had an interesting post earlier saying the jet turbine engine is now reaching limits in terms of how much energy in the fuel can be extracted. We also see them getting heavier and more fragile each generation to try to extract more work from the fuel. Eventually we do hit a point where there is no point in developing the jet turbine further and other options need to be explored. Not sure where we are in that journey, but it's interesting to think about it.

Amiga500 wrote:
If its not merely window dressing to cover up killing of the NMA/MoM program, then it could be a really strong decision and best for Boeing in the long term.

Back to square one - define a modern interface between users and platform (that interface applies to more than just the skygods).
That interface can then become a common Boeing standard (similar to Airbus' cockpit has a strong commonality thread through it), and can be the backbone of all future designs.
There are loads of top level requirements that could be introduced that simply wouldn't have been viable 10 years ago
- wireless/cloud connectivity to ground ops (for maintenance, flight planning, diagnostics etc)
- augmented reality headsets for improved HUD functionality [note, not virtual reality headsets]
- ground-up protection from hostile actors on the aircraft wireless network
- improved autopilot functionality and integration with ATC systems (which would require action outside of Boeing)

If the board manage to sort their crap out and make some hard decisions - a lot of good could emerge from the ashes of the MAX debacle.

Might be time to consider anti-missile protection as standard?

morrisond wrote:
Thinking more about this I think what Calhoun is referring too is that he will be pushing for a design that is more automated than we have ever seen before. Or will have the ability to be upgraded down the road when the Appropriate Software and or Hardware is available.

Let me explain.

We have to remember that whatever the new frame is it will most likely be in production for at least a minimum of 20 years (taking it close to 2050 with a realistic entry into service of the late 2020's), and be in service for at about 20 years past that. Basically taking us to 2070. However the basic frame could be produced for much longer and in service for a lot longer with the longevity of carbon frames. The "Pilot" even if there is one by then who will "fly" the last one from the factory probably hasn't been born yet.

You would want to build into the frame the ability to use systems that will become available in the next 20 years and longer.

Specifically, Real AI (not the Quasi AI we have now - but real Self Aware AI that can past the Turing Test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test) could happen by the end of this decade and we could see it's use in Aviation before the end of the 2030's, as it should be a quantum leap in safety once proven.

Will complete Automated Flight happen with no pilots by 2030? Of course not - but the level of Automation could increase significantly by 2030 with the full flight controlled essentially by Computer basically 100% of time with the pilot just there to take over if something goes wrong (with a Big red button to push to cut off all automated control).

Now would you want this Minimally trained pilot on board to have manual control and complete the flight without computer assistance if something goes wrong? Of course not - but all you would have to do is essentially train them to fly straight and level while the problem is diagnosed. Or have a completely redundant Simple AP system that could take over (by hitting the big red button) that relied on completely different sensors and control paths. A simple AP like you would find in an Cessna to maintain straight and level.

With so many sensors and computers the plane would become incredibly complex - meaning that no Pilot would have the knowledge to diagnose it properly.

This is where Boeing services comes in (and more revenue for Boeing) - you build in redundant Satellite links (that can't be controlled by HAL) so if an issue arises the pilot cuts over to the back up systems and contacts the Boeing services center where Experts on the aircraft can remote diagnose and help get the aircraft back to a safe state or possibly take remote control and fly the aircraft to a suitable Airport if the Pilot is unable to.

This is basically what happened with Lufthansa 1829 (remote diagnosis) and allowed them to continue on safely.

All this means is that if you are designing a new frame now - you have to build in the capacity for a lot more sensors into the control systems/wiring (much like Tesla is doing now with future upgrades to full autonomous driving) and space for more Computing capacity (more future revenue for Boeing Services).

Of course whenever you make things more complex you exponentially increase the points of failure - so initially you still need pilots that can fly.

In the immortal words of Montgomery Scott "The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain."

We already have foundations being laid by military drones. They do flights longer than SYD-LON in duration already. As I wrote it's too early for even single pilot, but you could construct the cockpit with electo-optical sensors from military drones as the primary sensors displaying on VR style headsets ala F35 with Mk1 eyeball as backup and be "single pilot ready" once the regulatory and labor regimes had adjusted to the idea.

If we're having these kinds of thoughts, clearly people paid to investigate the next steps in commercial aviation are aware of them too.

It's interesting to read this forum which has been so critical of the 737's lack of technical innovation are not willing to think beyond reuse of 787 tech.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:03 pm

morrisond wrote:
You would want to build into the frame the ability to use systems that will become available in the next 20 years and longer.

Specifically, Real AI (not the Quasi AI we have now - but real Self Aware AI that can past the Turing Test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test) could happen by the end of this decade and we could see it's use in Aviation before the end of the 2030's, as it should be a quantum leap in safety once proven.

Will complete Automated Flight happen with no pilots by 2030? Of course not - but the level of Automation could increase significantly by 2030 with the full flight controlled essentially by Computer basically 100% of time with the pilot just there to take over if something goes wrong (with a Big red button to push to cut off all automated control).

Now would you want this Minimally trained pilot on board to have manual control and complete the flight without computer assistance if something goes wrong? Of course not - but all you would have to do is essentially train them to fly straight and level while the problem is diagnosed. Or have a completely redundant Simple AP system that could take over (by hitting the big red button) that relied on completely different sensors and control paths. A simple AP like you would find in an Cessna to maintain straight and level.


I see something along the same lines in Calhoun's message.

But if I may add, they've probably come to realise that the time and cost to train a pilot to fully understand and be in charge of everything at all times is likely going to lose them an edge among the competition. There's a drive to reduce training time and costs and future flight control philosophy should take this into account.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 pm

LDRA wrote:
757 replacement :o !


This is what I was thinking. Now would be the time to clean sheet a 757- sized aircraft that could be base model 752 size, shrinkable to cover the 737 and stretchable to cover 753/763, with the ground clearance for larger engines and engine upgrades in the future like the A32x was setup perfectly to do this current gen aircraft cycle. And no I dont mean a 757 max, I know that can't happen.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
As per my last post, I think we can assume the starting point for the next project won't be the 737 tech base. I'm not sure why this isn't obvious. And with the 777/787 tech the pilot can still stall the airplane if they chose to do so, with the Airbus system the plane will prevent it. Boeing is considering going to the Airbus approach (i.e. full envelope protection) and presumably beyond, since this isn't 1987 any more nor 1967.


The flawed implementation of MCAS and not revealing it to pilots has effectively killed the old Boeing mantra that "the pilot is always in charge". With that trust broken, it makes sense for Boeing to move to a leading-edge cockpit implementation for their next all-new plane.

Revelation wrote:
I think whatever is next will not have common pilot rating mainly to break with the past. I could also see a full force feedback side stick, just like modern automobiles have fly by wire steering wheels, it frees up space and reduces weight while breaking with the past.


Boeing moving to sidesticks would certainly be somewhat revolutionary. :o I can see some folks being very upset by it, but progress shouldn't be hampered by dogma.

Revelation wrote:
We already have foundations being laid by military drones. They do flights longer than SYD-LON in duration already.


Possibly, but the loss rate of military drones is significantly worse than manned airliners, isn't it?
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Thinking more about this I think what Calhoun is referring too is that he will be pushing for a design that is more automated than we have ever seen before. Or will have the ability to be upgraded down the road when the Appropriate Software and or Hardware is available.

Let me explain.

We have to remember that whatever the new frame is it will most likely be in production for at least a minimum of 20 years (taking it close to 2050 with a realistic entry into service of the late 2020's), and be in service for at about 20 years past that. Basically taking us to 2070. However the basic frame could be produced for much longer and in service for a lot longer with the longevity of carbon frames. The "Pilot" even if there is one by then who will "fly" the last one from the factory probably hasn't been born yet.

You would want to build into the frame the ability to use systems that will become available in the next 20 years and longer.

Specifically, Real AI (not the Quasi AI we have now - but real Self Aware AI that can past the Turing Test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test) could happen by the end of this decade and we could see it's use in Aviation before the end of the 2030's, as it should be a quantum leap in safety once proven.

Will complete Automated Flight happen with no pilots by 2030? Of course not - but the level of Automation could increase significantly by 2030 with the full flight controlled essentially by Computer basically 100% of time with the pilot just there to take over if something goes wrong (with a Big red button to push to cut off all automated control).

Now would you want this Minimally trained pilot on board to have manual control and complete the flight without computer assistance if something goes wrong? Of course not - but all you would have to do is essentially train them to fly straight and level while the problem is diagnosed. Or have a completely redundant Simple AP system that could take over (by hitting the big red button) that relied on completely different sensors and control paths. A simple AP like you would find in an Cessna to maintain straight and level.

With so many sensors and computers the plane would become incredibly complex - meaning that no Pilot would have the knowledge to diagnose it properly.

This is where Boeing services comes in (and more revenue for Boeing) - you build in redundant Satellite links (that can't be controlled by HAL) so if an issue arises the pilot cuts over to the back up systems and contacts the Boeing services center where Experts on the aircraft can remote diagnose and help get the aircraft back to a safe state or possibly take remote control and fly the aircraft to a suitable Airport if the Pilot is unable to.

This is basically what happened with Lufthansa 1829 (remote diagnosis) and allowed them to continue on safely.

All this means is that if you are designing a new frame now - you have to build in the capacity for a lot more sensors into the control systems/wiring (much like Tesla is doing now with future upgrades to full autonomous driving) and space for more Computing capacity (more future revenue for Boeing Services).

Of course whenever you make things more complex you exponentially increase the points of failure - so initially you still need pilots that can fly.

In the immortal words of Montgomery Scott "The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain."

We already have foundations being laid by military drones. They do flights longer than SYD-LON in duration already. As I wrote it's too early for even single pilot, but you could construct the cockpit with electo-optical sensors from military drones as the primary sensors displaying on VR style headsets ala F35 with Mk1 eyeball as backup and be "single pilot ready" once the regulatory and labor regimes had adjusted to the idea.

If we're having these kinds of thoughts, clearly people paid to investigate the next steps in commercial aviation are aware of them too.

It's interesting to read this forum which has been so critical of the 737's lack of technical innovation are not willing to think beyond reuse of 787 tech.


Exactly - I'm having the same thoughts - eventually the pilot will go the way of the Dodo so the frame needs to have the sensors or capacity to allow this - or at least have the sensors and remote control ability so if the Pilot's are struggling the ground can help.

This is existing tech (Remote control technology) as you rightly point out. In today's day and age no crew should have to be isolated from instant help from the ground - be it advice or taking over control if incapacitated, and the ground not have robust data on what is happening on the aircraft.

In fact this could essentially replace black box technology - where all information on a flight is being continuously relayed to home base. If the bandwidth on Satellite's is not available yet it will be very soon. Plus we are not talking about tracking 100's of Millions of Cars.

We are talking about tracking maybe 35,000 Aircraft by 2030 - with say about 70% in the air at any one time - even if hundred's of pieces of data are tracked per flight that should easily be achievable - and another source of Revenue for Boeing (and Airbus) and differentiate them from the Chinese.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
Boeing1978 wrote:
And while you're at it, make peace with your employees and treat them with respect for a change.

If you read the whole article, it seems clear that he's saying such things are his main mission.

His first session with the press followed a webcast with employees, in which he was asked difficult questions about the culture at the company, he said.

“I believe this culture is a good one. Employees care about safety,” he said. “But their confidence right now is shaken—my job is to restore it.”

And:

Calhoun said he intends to “simplify everything” by pushing out new initiatives and even long-term planning to concentrate tightly on “the return of the MAX, … standing up improvements in the engineering function, … (and) shining bright lights on the safety process.”

“We’re not giving up on the future,” he said. “But for me, my attention and that of my executive team, I simply want to be focused on this set of issues.”


However, if you read the rest of the article he still doesn't acknowledge that the no sim training mandate and other fiscal pressures had an influence on the mistakes made on MCAS, and treats the guy who is the focus of the email/text dump (Forkner) as a scapegoat. He treats him as an exception rather than the rule, without giving any real reason to believe this is true.

I think his main job is restoring trust between management and employees, and isn't really off to a great start. He seems to be avoiding dealing with some pretty key issues, one the employees know exist.


If he carries on like that it's just a matter of time until he has the same fate as DM

They needed to appoint someone external with some charisma and empathy

Boeing haven't learnt a single thing from the last 12 months
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
Might be time to consider anti-missile protection as standard?


I don't know if any airliner would ever have an effective chance of evading a competent missile.

Of course, I know there are already IR ECM integrated on "commercial" aircraft.

I suppose, to cover bases - the system architecture should be designed such that it is open to the addition of such sub-systems in the future.



Certainly - there needs to be protection against communication jamming or worse - interference. Cannot have an automated or semi-automated aircraft unless you can 100% guarantee resistance to a hostile actor attempting a remote hack.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
In fact this could essentially replace black box technology - where all information on a flight is being continuously relayed to home base. If the bandwidth on Satellite's is not available yet it will be very soon. Plus we are not talking about tracking 100's of Millions of Cars.


Erm, like SB-S?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:30 pm

morrisond wrote:

In fact this could essentially replace black box technology - where all information on a flight is being continuously relayed to home base. If the bandwidth on Satellite's is not available yet it will be very soon. Plus we are not talking about tracking 100's of Millions of Cars.

We are talking about tracking maybe 35,000 Aircraft by 2030 - with say about 70% in the air at any one time - even if hundred's of pieces of data are tracked per flight that should easily be achievable - and another source of Revenue for Boeing (and Airbus) and differentiate them from the Chinese.


Just for this point here:

It does not even need that crazy satellite system as almost all flights are over land and around populated area as well. Yes there are TATL and TPAC flights and a few more from Australia to SE Asia that are mostly over water but most big markets (Europe, Asia, India, North and South America) are over land so you just need to equip all the airports and some remote towers with data links.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:42 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
morrisond wrote:

In fact this could essentially replace black box technology - where all information on a flight is being continuously relayed to home base. If the bandwidth on Satellite's is not available yet it will be very soon. Plus we are not talking about tracking 100's of Millions of Cars.

We are talking about tracking maybe 35,000 Aircraft by 2030 - with say about 70% in the air at any one time - even if hundred's of pieces of data are tracked per flight that should easily be achievable - and another source of Revenue for Boeing (and Airbus) and differentiate them from the Chinese.


Just for this point here:

It does not even need that crazy satellite system as almost all flights are over land and around populated area as well. Yes there are TATL and TPAC flights and a few more from Australia to SE Asia that are mostly over water but most big markets (Europe, Asia, India, North and South America) are over land so you just need to equip all the airports and some remote towers with data links.


Sure - whatever works and is more reliable or higher bandwidth.

Just imagine how the Air disasters of the last 15 years would have turned out differently if at the time of the first warning bell going off - Home base (or the aircraft manufacturer)with a 3rd Expert Pilot on hand is alerted instantly that something was amiss and they were sitting in a simulator/control station being fed all your data that could help you troubleshoot and fix the problem or take over if you were struggling.

That is all achievable with Today's tech.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:58 pm

ual763 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?

Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We already have foundations being laid by military drones. They do flights longer than SYD-LON in duration already.

Possibly, but the loss rate of military drones is significantly worse than manned airliners, isn't it?

Yes, but that's why you start with the two pilot cockpit with drone-like sensors, then move on to eliminating one pilot once all the surrounding technology is mature and teething issues are resolved and a base line is established. It's kind of like how Tesla is out in front of the regulators with self driving cars. The car isn't fully self driving but it each car is adding to the dataset needed to get to the point of full self driving cars.

morrisond wrote:
Exactly - I'm having the same thoughts - eventually the pilot will go the way of the Dodo so the frame needs to have the sensors or capacity to allow this - or at least have the sensors and remote control ability so if the Pilot's are struggling the ground can help.

This is existing tech (Remote control technology) as you rightly point out. In today's day and age no crew should have to be isolated from instant help from the ground - be it advice or taking over control if incapacitated, and the ground not have robust data on what is happening on the aircraft.

In fact this could essentially replace black box technology - where all information on a flight is being continuously relayed to home base. If the bandwidth on Satellite's is not available yet it will be very soon. Plus we are not talking about tracking 100's of Millions of Cars.

We are talking about tracking maybe 35,000 Aircraft by 2030 - with say about 70% in the air at any one time - even if hundred's of pieces of data are tracked per flight that should easily be achievable - and another source of Revenue for Boeing (and Airbus) and differentiate them from the Chinese.

I think there will be enough satellite bandwidth at the time we're considering, given how SpaceX is deploying microsats. It is a disruptive technology. Other vendors (including Boeing's space division) will have no choice but follow.
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Schmave
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:05 pm

To me, Calhoun's statements indicate a few different things. One, that the previous incarnation of the NMA did not have a solid enough business case. I'll admit that I was a fan of a 7-abreast small widebody (from a passenger point of view), but it seems that they could not get it to compete with an A321neo on missions for which the A321 is capable. It is always going to be difficult, or impossible, for a widebody to compete with a narrow body at the same technology levels. And the fact that the A321LR and XLR are further encroaching into the middle of the market is just making the task even more difficult.

The comments relating to pilot interface and control seem to imply that they want to make the new plane essentially idiot proof. Additionally, the more automated a plane becomes, the more difficult it will be for pilots to react to an emergency. As such, the plane will have to be able to fail gracefully and maintain control on its own when things go wrong. This will require completely different control systems (meaning lots more redundant and independent sensors, with multiple systems monitoring each other). And even if the plane doesn't always make every decision, it should recommend actions to the pilot during an emergency situation. While I believe technology exists to enable this, it will be a massive design effort to get right.

Assuming this new plane sticks with the tube and wing design, I believe they will design the family to be at the upper end (size-wise at least) of what can be done with a 6-abreast single aisle. We have seen the trend build for up-gauging of narrow body fleets, and this will likely continue. So the smallest family member will probably be above the 737-8/A320 size and the largest above the A321. I am not sure what they will do for range. It may be better to start with base models that can handle lower ranges (~3000 nm or even less) to keep the weight down since most narrow body flights are relatively short. Maybe they allow flexibility for ER versions to have certain parts beefed up. The wings will definitely be CFRP, but I don't know about the fuselage. Of course, if they do anything radical, like a BWB, everything I just said goes out the window (but I don't think they'll do a BWB at this point).

This is all my speculation, but maybe some of it will be correct!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:07 pm

TObound wrote:
ual763 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?

Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.


It would not have - you are right.

It's just that in the past when Pilot's were more comfortable with Hand flying - they may have saved a bad situation due to automation failure 99 times out of a hundred with it happening on 1 of every 10,000 flights - so 1 in a million crash. Nowadays pilots might be able to save it 90 times out of hundred - but if it only happens on one out of every 1,000,000 flights - that's 1 in 10 million crash. Overall fewer fatalities - but it would be nice if Pilot's could still save it 99 times out of a hundred so you would be at 1 in 100 million flights crash.

I made all those numbers up just to illustrate a point but I think you can figure out what I'm getting at.

Now with my Virtual third pilot on the ground hopefully we get to 1 in a Billion.
Last edited by morrisond on Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:07 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:



The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


No, Calhoun said that the 737 Max would fly another generation. It is not doing the market a favor not to develop anything other than a 737MAX replacement ...


What I wanted to say is that Boeing is maybe considering dropping the NMA to make room for the NSA.

It really looks like the market wants a 737 MAX replacement. And hopefully, Boeing is listening. In my opinion, Boeing should make the FSA a priority. First priority: solve the 737 MAX problems. Second priority: design and build the NSA. That how it should be in my opinion.

When the 737 MAX issues are solved, it should be like this in my opinion: First priority: design and build the NSA. Second priority: design and build the NMA.

I’m no expert, but it looks like this is what the market wants in my opinion.


The market is always happy to have new airplanes. There's no evidence that they would pay the cost for their development though. Once the MAX is back in the air, there's no point pushing the NSA until there's engines and other tech making it worthwhile. Otherwise, the NMA is the business opportunity.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:09 pm

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2019/05/0 ... ety-comms/

I see that SB-S already has the bandwidth to support proactive maintenance activities - so I guess that can be scratched off the list for the NSA systems - including it is non-negotiable at this point.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:09 pm

The worst thing about this news is that we will have the same discussion that we already had for a couple of years over and over again for several years to come. At least for this year as Boeing will not launch anything new before 2021.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:12 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The worst thing about this news is that we will have the same discussion that we already had for a couple of years over and over again for several years to come. At least for this year as Boeing will not launch anything new before 2021.


They won't even have defined the boundaries of their scope by then, never mind conceptualised it.

2023 at earliest I'd say.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:13 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The worst thing about this news is that we will have the same discussion that we already had for a couple of years over and over again for several years to come. At least for this year as Boeing will not launch anything new before 2021.


Unfortunately that is so true.

Hopefully Airbus goes ahead with at least A320/321 rewing so we can talk about that. But given what Boeing is now potentially talking about they will probably wait to see what Boeing does before committing.

They may have to go clean sheet as well as it could be the equivalent of turning the 737 into a FBW design.

At least the second half of the decade should be pretty active for new programs.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The worst thing about this news is that we will have the same discussion that we already had for a couple of years over and over again for several years to come. At least for this year as Boeing will not launch anything new before 2021.

True, this thread has already seen NSA, 757neo, 767-400X, NMA Mk1 and BWB all make their appearances and we're just getting started. Not to mention my thoughts and others about where flight control / cockpit tech is going.

morrisond wrote:
Unfortunately that is so true.

Hopefully Airbus goes ahead with at least A320/321 rewing so we can talk about that. But given what Boeing is now potentially talking about they will probably wait to see what Boeing does before committing.

They may have to go clean sheet as well as it could be the equivalent of turning the 737 into a FBW design.

Indeed. Airbus was said to be happy with a relatively quick MAX RTS because they didn't want to have to react to Boeing doing a bleeding edge clean sheet. Now they may end up having to revisit such considerations.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:29 pm

morrisond wrote:
TObound wrote:
ual763 wrote:

Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?

Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.


It would not have - you are right.

It's just that in the past when Pilot's were more comfortable with Hand flying - they may have saved a bad situation due to automation failure 99 times out of a hundred with it happening on 1 of every 10,000 flights - so 1 in a million crash. Nowadays pilots might be able to save it 90 times out of hundred - but if it only happens on one out of every 1,000,000 flights - that's 1 in 10 million crash. Overall fewer fatalities - but it would be nice if Pilot's could still save it 99 times out of a hundred so you would be at 1 in 100 million flights crash.

I made all those numbers up just to illustrate a point but I think you can figure out what I'm getting at.

Now with my Virtual third pilot on the ground hopefully we get to 1 in a Billion.


Want to know why they were "more comfortable hand flying"? Because a ton of civilian pilots were ex-military with thousands of hours in either high performance aircraft or large transports or large helicopters operating in complex environments. Civil aviation has grown substantially since the Cold War, while military spending, especially on military aviation has either decreased or moved on to unpiloted platforms. Relying on the military to produce civil aviators was always a broken model waiting to be exposed. And Boeing's design philosophy left it particularly exposed.

They don't need fancy virtual cockpits with remote pilots. They need the same cockpits and automation that everyone else from Airbus to Learjets to military transports have. Read this on the CSeries/A220 cockpit and how its automation works:

...on the A220 there are no “boxed” memory items for emergencies and minimal use of flows to set up the flight deck. Bringing the A220 to life is simple: ensure that the parking brake is set, select both batteries to “auto,” and select the electronic checklist. Then wait, and do not touch a thing. As the aircraft comes to life (and either external or APU electrical power is added), nearly all systems are self-tested (only the anti-ice system must be manually tested, a regulatory requirement), all inertial reference systems align, and the primary flight control computers become active. Within a couple of minutes, an electronic checklist (ECL) verifies that all systems are ready to go. The ECL is fantastic and is used for both normal and non-normal checklist and automatically “checks off” items that the system senses. As I gained more experience with the A220, I really began to appreciate learning an aircraft designed from a clean sheet with considerable input from pilots.


Level at FL280, the next item on our agenda was to demonstrate the emergency descent mode (EDM). EDM is an automatic function that is active above 25,000 feet. In the event of a rapid depressurization (cabin altitude above 14,500 feet), EDM activates. EDM automatically engages the autopilot and autothrottles (if not already engaged), selects 15,000 feet on the mode control panel (MCP) and resets “7700” (the emergency code) in the transponder. Next, the system will reduce the thrust levers to idle and begin a descent near VMO/MMO. The pilots only need to don oxygen mask and deploy the spoilers.


With the approach brief and checklist complete, we were prepared for the approach into MCI. The autoland function on the A220 provides approach tracking, runway alignment, de-crabbing (in a crosswind), landing flare, and runway tracking during rollout. Designed to provide the highest level of approach capability based on system status (automatic up-mode capability), there are no different actions required by the pilots when compared with a normal ILS approach.


A recent Airbus study comparing accident rates over the past 50 years shows that each generation of aircraft makes a substantial improvement over the preceding generation. This study points to fourth-generation FBW aircraft with flight envelope protection systems—like the A220—to reduce the likelihood of a loss of control in flight (LOC-I) by 75 percent....The A220's automated features not only reduce workload, but systems like the electronic checklist will double-check “sensed” items (flaps, thrust settings, and other configurations) to ensure it matches what the crew planned...


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... next-level

I urge everyone to read the full article.

This is why I said earlier that Boeing should simply put in Pro Line Fusion cockpits on their aircraft. So many pilots either learn on build time on King Airs. They could be qualified to fly a Boeing narrowbody with the same cockpit without much fuss. In the long run, fancy tech may be needed to go to single pilot operation. But what's described above would easily give them an airplane that they can sell for several decades.

All of the above also shows how much Boeing cheaped out on development with the 737 MAX. Compare where the CSeries/A220 is and it becomes obvious that they really should have launched the NSA instead of the MAX. Reading this stuff only drives home the point of how much "lipstick on a pig" the MAX was.
Last edited by TObound on Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:37 pm

That is what I like a bout Boeing, after a set back they return leaner and meaner.
 
Alfons
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.


So nothing changed, same mentality like DM (put guilt on the driver after shooting him in the back). Good luck Boeing.
Last edited by Alfons on Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:45 pm

TObound wrote:
This is why I said earlier that Boeing should simply put in Pro Line Fusion cockpits on their aircraft. So many pilots either learn on build time on King Airs. They could be qualified to fly a Boeing narrowbody with the same cockpit without much fuss.

In the long run, fancy tech may be needed to go to single pilot operation. But what's described above would easily give them an airplane that they can sell for several decades.

Sorry, but to me this comes across more like a "technology froze in 2007" approach ( ref: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... s-research ) rather than "aim where the puck is going not where it is at" approach. It is better than starting with a 1967 or 1987 baseline, but where will things be at a ~2027 EIS and how can they sustain the aircraft till ~2047 without a more forward thinking approach?
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:10 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
Interesting. Must be hard having to start all over again on the airplane that was going to destroy the competition and every airline in the world was apparently begging Boeing for and creaming themselves over.

Hopefully, Boeing breaks the news gently to those poor airlines who were just couldn't wait for the planes.

Exactly. I think such a statement highlights what a lot on here have been saying for a while (including me): the NMA was, at best, a concept that was floated around to airlines and not a project so advanced in design phase that they were about to cut the first metal for it.

If Boeing has a design that was almost ready, it wouldn't "start with a clean sheet of paper again"; cause it would be cost-prohibitive.
I think it's a way to save face.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:34 pm

Here comes the twin-engined 707-Max.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:43 pm

morrisond wrote:
TObound wrote:
ual763 wrote:
Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.

And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?
Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.

It would not have - you are right.

It's just that in the past when Pilot's were more comfortable with Hand flying - they may have saved a bad situation due to automation failure 99 times out of a hundred with it happening on 1 of every 10,000 flights - so 1 in a million crash. Nowadays pilots might be able to save it 90 times out of hundred - but if it only happens on one out of every 1,000,000 flights - that's 1 in 10 million crash. Overall fewer fatalities - but it would be nice if Pilot's could still save it 99 times out of a hundred so you would be at 1 in 100 million flights crash.

I made all those numbers up just to illustrate a point but I think you can figure out what I'm getting at.

Now with my Virtual third pilot on the ground hopefully we get to 1 in a Billion.


morrisond: I think you have captured that perfectly. While one may play around with the numbers, you did hit the nail right on its head.
This is also the situation with respect to worldwide pilot standards we continue to discuss in the grounding thread.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
par13del wrote:
Not sure I understand what he is saying, he is new in the top job but the job position has been doing the bidding of the board for years.
The 757 sales dried up so they correctly killed it, then the market started advancing and the A321 took off, the board decided it was not critical enough for a new build so they used the 737 and have continued to do so to the MAX 200, now they are talking about watching the Chinese? Really, I am thinking this is more distraction, for who I do not know because no one has deferred ordering A321's while waiting for the NMA, including UA.

The NMA they spoke about was going above the A321 and take it head on only on a limited number of routes, along with new production methods that seemed to be a realistic option. Maybe they want to do two at the same time and are looking for launch aid, 737 replacement and NMA at the same time, one narrow one wide.

Who knows what to make of it.

I'm sure the CEOs of the various entities that were saying positive things about NMA must be calling their contacts at Boeing and asking for some clarification on the CEO's statement.

I wouldn't be surprised as I wrote above if the mention of the Chinese was a ploy to get sympathy (and more) from the government.


In a weird sort of way this is almost reminiscent of the Sonic Cruiser morphed into 787 chain of events. They presented one thing and ended up with something completely different.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:52 pm

TObound wrote:
seahawk wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:

What is a current state of the art cockpit in your opinion? I am asking this because I’m trying to understand your point better. In my opinion the current state of the art cockpit is the Airbus A350 cockpit.



From the man to machine interface it is the A220 imho. But there is still a lot room for improvement. Especially if you look at the military side and where they are already.


I am thinking the A220 cockpit plus EFVS and force feedback sidesticks and redundant sensors on everything (necessary anyway for full FBW). That would go a very long way to making their airplane "third world pilot" (as fanboys love to cry about) proof.


Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:53 pm

So basically Boeing throws away years of development work on the NMA and will start over.

Taking long lead times into account, I guess we won't see a new cleansheet before 2030.

And then there's this: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2045428736

Boeing’s new CEO said any new airplane development would come alongside a complete rethink about how pilots fly its aircraft. “We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane."


I read that a few ways. First, a subtle jab at the pilots involved in both Max crashes. Second, an acknowledgement that Embraer’s FBW work needs to find its way into Boeing commercial airplanes.


Would be interesting if Boeing adapts Embraer’s FBW flight control system.
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:54 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So what is wrong with the 787 FBW system since that is the last clean sheet control system put out by Boeing?


Possibly based off the same erroneous assumptions that when something goes wrong, the pilots can redesign the aircraft, cure cancer and fill the fuselage with enough hot air to keep the aircraft flying - all within 2 seconds.

Even two captains on the same flight deck will struggle to talk themselves up enough to fill a fuselage in 2 seconds.

Thanks, did not know we already had factual information on the failings. of the 787 FBW system.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:57 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Would be interesting if Boeing adapts Embraer’s FBW flight control system.

And how does Embraer’s FBW work? I don’t think Boeing will exactly copy Embraer’s FBW, they will most likely tweak it in my opinion.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:11 pm

IFlyVeryLittle wrote:
Here comes the twin-engined 707-Max.

That was funny the first time it was posted, and maybe even the second.

TObound wrote:
This would imply they've been developing tech that they can deploy for a while. I have my doubts on that. What could they deploy that say someone like RC can't?

I don't really know what they can pull out of the parts bin but leveraging other people's stuff isn't going to do much for them.

TObound wrote:
They can make a lot more stuff standard. Like EFVS. That alone would be a big change for a company that thinks a second AOA sensor is optional....

Charging for extra sensors is so outdated. They will have to move to a different model of revenue extraction. Something like "cockpit by the hour" i.e. the subscription based model so many cloud based apps have moved to. They need a way to pay for all this tech. While customers will resist, such resistance is futile, IMO.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:21 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market.



Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed)

Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to follow to replace 737 with 787-3 to replace 757 / 767-200
787 project badly mishandled
Boeing kills 787-3
Mishandled 787 project kills 737 replacement, so Boeing builds MAX
MAX doesn't cut it at upper capacity end, Boeing gets caned by A321 / A321NEO
Airbus builds 757 replacement in A321LR / XLR
Boeing then decides to build NMA to compete in market segment it declared dead but can't close business case partly because of A321 / A321NEO / A321LR / A321 XLR
MAX gets grounded
MAX grounding turns into money munching nightmare
Boeing kills NMA ceding 757 / large NB market to Airbus
MAX is on deathwatch, whole project is at risk

So 15 years of Boeing strategy have gotten them... well, not very far actually, 787 sure, but MAX is EOL, NMA pushed out to end of 2020's until which time Boeing will not have a competitive offering in the large NB / small WB sector.

RickNRoll wrote:

That doesn't make sense. The NMA would have had modern flight control systems, like the 777 and 787 already have.


Seems obvious, though not to all.


You forgot one very key strategic move that wound up biting Boeing: the campaign to kill the C-Series/A220. Their hopes of killing a competitor to the low-end of the 737 failed, and now there are 400+ sales of the A220 squeezing them from the low end.

And as Boeing is really in a pickle trying to engineer a cleans-heet aircraft to fight both the low and high-range. From the A220 on the low end against the 737-800/MAX8, to the A321 LR/XLR on the high end against the 737 MAX 10/757-200, and even the A330-800 NEO on the 757-300-767-200/300 front. Round and round we go on discussions regarding size and technology to be considered but where is Boeing really focusing their attention?
Last edited by aumaverick on Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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aumaverick
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:22 pm

BoeingVista wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market.



Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed)

Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to follow to replace 737 with 787-3 to replace 757 / 767-200
787 project badly mishandled
Boeing kills 787-3
Mishandled 787 project kills 737 replacement, so Boeing builds MAX
MAX doesn't cut it at upper capacity end, Boeing gets caned by A321 / A321NEO
Airbus builds 757 replacement in A321LR / XLR
Boeing then decides to build NMA to compete in market segment it declared dead but can't close business case partly because of A321 / A321NEO / A321LR / A321 XLR
MAX gets grounded
MAX grounding turns into money munching nightmare
Boeing kills NMA ceding 757 / large NB market to Airbus
MAX is on deathwatch, whole project is at risk

So 15 years of Boeing strategy have gotten them... well, not very far actually, 787 sure, but MAX is EOL, NMA pushed out to end of 2020's until which time Boeing will not have a competitive offering in the large NB / small WB sector.

RickNRoll wrote:

That doesn't make sense. The NMA would have had modern flight control systems, like the 777 and 787 already have.


Seems obvious, though not to all.


You forgot one very key strategic move that wound up biting Boeing: the campaign to kill the C-Series/A220. Their hopes of killing a competitor to the low-end of the 737 failed, and now there are 400+ sales of the A220 squeezing them from the low end.

And as Boeing is really in a pickle trying to engineer a cleans-heet aircraft to fight both the low and high-range. From the A220 on the low end against the 737-800/MAX8, to the A321 LR/XLR on the high end against the 737 MAX 10/757-200, and even the A330-800 NEO on the 757-300-767-200/300 front. Round and round we go on discussions regarding size and technology to be considered but where is Boeing really focusing their attention?
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Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:33 pm

Feels a bit like smoke as they need to make big decisions and maybe don't want to spread the word too early or similar?
I agree that some "sized above the biggest A321neo" new NMA looks more promising than to now design some expensive 737 follow-on using the existing neo-engines.
They need some new custom sized engine first to begin something serious. So what is brewing at GE?
Last edited by Noshow on Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
vegas005
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:34 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds like NSA instead of NMA


Sounds like it is DOA...
 
vegas005
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:39 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds like NSA instead of NMA


Sounds like it is DOA...
 
DanniS
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:42 pm

Well, if Boeing's Truss-Braced Wing can actually produce 60% fuel savings (or 60% better performance, whatever that means), then maybe between that, composites, and being single-aisle they can smash the long-term A321XLR prospects, but that's a high bar. The other question I guess is if that concept can be brought up to a 240-seater craft.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:55 pm

In the end it was the most unneeded statement in a long time, but it smells like the Boeing we know and not in a good way.

1. our main fault was that we underestimated the incompetence of others
2. we had one super new plane coming but we will now stop it and turn it into something even more amazing
3. we have no problems we need to fix
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
In the end it was the most unneeded statement in a long time, but it smells like the Boeing we know and not in a good way.

1. our main fault was that we underestimated the incompetence of others
2. we had one super new plane coming but we will now stop it and turn it into something even more amazing
3. we have no problems we need to fix

Well, with (3) he admits there is a trust issue to be resolved, but at the same time sticks to the old line that it wasn't about profit over safety it was just an engineering misjudgment, and also suggests we ignore the idiot with the potty mouth who drinks too much and sends problematic emails yet undermines the rest of the party line.

He better really hope the FBI/DoJ doesn't have a second or third source to shoot holes in his arguments.
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IAmGaroott
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:26 pm

So we’re looking at a clean-sheet aircraft with probably two or three variants with a capacity and range between the 738 and 753.

I guess we’ll see a teased up E195 E2 to replace the 737-7. Can the E2s even be lengthened?
 
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litz
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:27 pm

Stirring the pot, makes me wonder if we're looking at a potential 757/767 style combination new design, for commonality purposes.

That was a large driver/selling point of those models, after all ...
 
Elementalism
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:45 pm

IFlyVeryLittle wrote:
Here comes the twin-engined 707-Max.


In some ways wasnt that the 757? :D
 
Elementalism
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:47 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
So basically Boeing throws away years of development work on the NMA and will start over.

Taking long lead times into account, I guess we won't see a new cleansheet before 2030.

And then there's this: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 2045428736

Boeing’s new CEO said any new airplane development would come alongside a complete rethink about how pilots fly its aircraft. “We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane."


I read that a few ways. First, a subtle jab at the pilots involved in both Max crashes. Second, an acknowledgement that Embraer’s FBW work needs to find its way into Boeing commercial airplanes.


Would be interesting if Boeing adapts Embraer’s FBW flight control system.



It is no secret there is and will continue to be a pilot shortage. I honestly would not be shocked if the next clean sheet has an option for single pilot.

Curious why Boeing couldnt use the FBW from the 777 or 787?
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:56 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Curious why Boeing couldnt use the FBW from the 777 or 787?


Because the NSA is a clean sheet design. They can do it if they want to, but I think they won’t.
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:04 pm

The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
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