Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10335
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 am

scbriml wrote:
160-220 seats is MAX replacement sizes, not what most people considered the “middle of the market” to be.

If that is what they do it is another moon shot.
Build an a/c the size of the existing MAX with current technology engines plus put in a new FBW system?
I guess some bean counter told them that if they put in a new FBW system that would allow them to charge a premium.
How they will prevent existing MAX clients from switching will be interesting, in addition to having a pretty high initial production rate.

The odds are also very good that we will see Boeing planes wobbling in the sky while pilots fight the automation for control of the a/c.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:46 am

I think rj... made the case that a quite tight 8 abreast* could be as efficient as a 6 abreast. The obvious question is how it would sell. The new Boeing CEO has raised the question, in a masterfully ambiguous statement, as to what Boeing's next all new plane will be. At this point we all are simply in the dark.

* as well such a plane would enjoy a great economy plus at 7 abreast, and business at 2-2-2, and even international business at 1-2-2
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:31 am

scbriml wrote:
160-220 seats is MAX replacement sizes, not what most people considered the “middle of the market” to be.

There is a very real possibility Dave Calhoun is saying that we need a MAX replacement in the only way he can that is fit for public consumption. If he actually said "we need a MAX replacement more than we need an NMA" then he would be facing an avalanche of airlines who want to upgrade their order from MAX to NSA.

By my count there were 16 orders placed for the B737-900 that were later upgraded to the B737-900ER. Compare that number to the 52 B737-900s delivered.

The manufacturer can live with a certain number of orders that are later replaced with a newer and better version. But the MAX customers might want to wait en masse for the NSA.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10335
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:49 am

PacoMartin wrote:
There is a very real possibility Dave Calhoun is saying that we need a MAX replacement in the only way he can that is fit for public consumption. If he actually said "we need a MAX replacement more than we need an NMA" then he would be facing an avalanche of airlines who want to upgrade their order from MAX to NSA.

It's not the public Boeing has to worry about, it is the airlines who hold MAX orders, once the details of the a/c becomes public the avalanche of airlines will show up. The reason why something in the mom / nma space made sense is because Boeing does have a gap in its line up, too many tend to look at the A321 as if that is in Boeing's line up, since the 757 went Boeing has struggled with the 900, 900ER, MAX9.
The mom / nma could have been configured above the A321 and below the 787-8, putting out a 737 replacement now or next year will effectively kill the MAX, even if they did not have the fatal accidents, the accidents only give the airlines who hold MAX orders more incentive.

I am starting to wonder if he used to be asleep at the board meetings the last few years.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:01 am

That's just Guy Norris's guess (focusing on 160-220 seat range) on what Boeing is going to do first going forward - he also says the Large NMA is similar in size to A321 XLR. He is not basing it on anything Boeing said. Calhoun is still calling it an NMA.

"The larger NMA, believed to be dubbed internally as the 7K7-7X, was provisionally targeted at entry-into-service in 2025 and was expected to counter the similarly sized Airbus A321XLR."

So what Norris is talking about could actually potentially be an A220 Competitor that is maybe marginally larger so the smallest size is 737-7 capacity (but lower range) and the largest more like 738 Capacity or up to 200 Y seats.

This may be the Boeing Brazil project and be 5W and short range to not cut into 738/731 Market.

Something doesn't make sense as Norris is talking about two different things.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1271
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:09 am

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
What I wonder is, what would Boeing do when Airbus comes up with A322neo?

using the XLR, Airbus could increase the seat counts by adding 4-5 frames. Which isn't a lot, but enough to allow for 18-20 extra passengers into the cabin. Small loss of range would put them at around 4,000nmi. Which is similar to B757-200.

What would Boeing do then? sure B797 might be cheaper to run thanks to it's composite materials or next gen engines. But would all those benefits be enough to offset a cheaper purchasing price of A322neo in their lifetime?

Surely with all those new engines + composite materials, Boeing wouldn't gave too much discount to airlines because they need to recoup their $20 billion development costs. While Airbus only need $2-$3 billions to developed a simple stretch.

WIederling wrote:
Revelation wrote:
....... Airbus is already developing a CFRP wing for A320 in the UK, so they should be good to go whenever they want to announce it.

What is your assumption/expectation of the tech readiness level of that project?
is it "ripe" for 2025 or 2035 :-)

Great topics for one of the many "what will Airbus do next" threads.


I'm pretty sure what will Airbus do next is the single biggest factor for the NMA's business case.
 
foxtrotbravo21
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:52 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:17 am

Boeing does really need to develop a sinhle-aisle 180 - 220 seater plane from the ground up as it cannot depend any more based on the 737, and to compete with A321 which actually is more than a 20 year old design.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:02 am

oops, earlier business international, 1-2-1-
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:15 am

Let me clarify that statement I made in the previous post. United Airlines order 28 B737-900. They ended up taking delivery of 12 B737-900 and 16 were upgraded to B737-900ER. At a later date they ordered 120 additional B737-900ER.

United Airlines made two orders for the MAX
12. Jul. 2012 99
27. Dec. 2016 38
so far only 14 have been delivered. If the Boeing CEO announces that they are developing a MAX replacement, United may very well try to negotiate with Boeing so that they will take the MAXs that have already been produced, but after that they will try and find some used jets for the next five or six years and wait for the NSA. What if United is one of dozens of customers that attempt to negotiate a similar strategy?

The CEO can't have a full scale customer revolt. So his public announcement of a "clean sheet NMA design" is just his way of masking the work on the MAX replacement. If it is available in sizes equivalent to a MAX8, MAX10 and a larger variant he won't actually be lying.
 
Ertro
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:28 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:19 am

PacoMartin wrote:
The CEO can't have a full scale customer revolt. So his public announcement of a "clean sheet NMA design" is just his way of masking the work on the MAX replacement. If it is available in sizes equivalent to a MAX8, MAX10 and a larger variant he won't actually be lying.


He could not be claimed to have lied anyway. If somebody says "start with a clean sheet of paper again" the most straightforward and first interpretation of it is "We are taking a step back from this. Don't expect to hear anything about this for a while". This message just got forgotten on a.net because there are so huge number of NMA fanboys to interpret this like it means "a 6 months delay" when there is nothing like that implied.

So Calhoun really said "We have been pushing NMA to customers but we are now stopping doing that and shelving the plans we have been showing. Don't expect anything new on this front until we say something". If there is never anything heard about NMA again he was not lying.

And if Boeing is stopping work on NMA, what do they have resources to do instead? Max replacement.

morrisond wrote:
That's just Guy Norris's guess (focusing on 160-220 seat range) on what Boeing is going to do first going forward - he also says the Large NMA is similar in size to A321 XLR. He is not basing it on anything Boeing said. Calhoun is still calling it an NMA.


No. Calhoun is only calling NMA that thing that he is taking out from active development.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9307
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:27 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Easier embarking, disembarking.


Observation:
solve problems at a point where susceptibility to a change is highest:

fiddling with aisle width has low impact.
But:
There is an absolutely simple solution with high impact.
Board from both ends. ( Ryan Air works that to great success.)
Potential gain is the halving of boarding times!

another thing to look at is door size.
on exit the limiting factor is the door size and not the aisles.
on entry I'd see the doors as a first choke point too.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13940
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:54 am

As long as the MAX was the only option forward, Boeing has been telling new technology, besting the best in class MAX just did't exist.
Believing Boeing for their word proved a unsatisfying tactic as most found out in recent times

For Boeing the time has now come to set aside pride & burry old dogma's.
Calhoun suggests it. Catch up time.

The Yellowstone 1 / MoM, NSA / NMA / FSA /737 Replacement should include:

:arrow: engine options for airlines, at least 2 engines offering BPR 14+, geared fans etc.
:arrow: AKH container / pallet opttions
:arrow: 20th century seatwidth >18 inch seatpan with decent armrests
:arrow: full flight enveloppe protection and pilot support systems (brake to vacate, emergency auto land etc.)
:arrow: full FBW for seamless flight characteritics, load elevation etc.
:arrow: quiet cabins & cockpits
:arrow: at least similar fuel efficiency/empty weight to an A220-500 in a 165 seat / 1500NM configuration.

If Boeing makes it a powerful SUV, that can do 240 passengers / 4500NM too, they will be uncompetitive in the huge 165 seat-1000NM segment and loose e.g. Southwest Airlines.
That's why Calhoun is capping off at 220 seats. The "one hat fits all" days are over.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 698
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:55 am

Turn around times are not a problem in a hub and spoke system where priority lies on connectivity. It does not matter if the additional time on the ground can be compensated with higher loads and fares by offering connectivity.

Two aisles are only there because of regulations. If airlines could go 6-6 on the 777 they would. This is why there is such a jump from 3-3 to 3-3-3 as this is almost the optimal config, 3-5-3 is the best but not practical from a yield management perspective. One reason the A330 is struggling is because 3-3-3 is not practical. Everything between 3-3 and 3-3-3 only functions if you can charge a premium but that only works for a few airlines and no one designs an aircraft for a few.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:42 am

keesje wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
2x2x2 coach fuselage concerns me as the flattened ovoid fuselage I think we concluded was not worth doing.

Carry on baggage also would be problematic. 1x3x2 seems to offer more carry on capabilities, as well as options on thinner routes to segment higher yield travelers by not selling the middle seat until the aircraft fills. (Airlines could specify this option)

Additionally for long thin routes one needs to attract the more premium yield traveler. What better way to do this than a comfortable twin aisles
4 abreast - first
5 abreast - business
6 abreast - up-sale-able coach

Configuration. Below 230 seats I think this design MAY have merit. Would it have merit with 170 seats as well?


An 8% wider NB is making possible twin aisle 1-2-1 or 1-1-1 in front. In addition to bigger bins, in main cabin, a 50% wider aisle would make possible longer fuselages, passengers would be able to pass each other / carts and (de)board quicker.

Image


I would see better this nice concept being something that would come as the next development of Airbus.

Indeed, given the leadership of the A32Xneo family, it would be appropriate for Toulouse to integrate an Airbus NMA product in its catalog, which completes the A32Xneo family with this all-New "A230X concept"

I think it would be interesting for the market and for the futur need included the chines and pacific market

IMHO, I do NOT see a RISK for Toulouse that this kind of new product is LAUNCHED, while completing with the A220/A32Xneo family as a another AGGRESSIVE game-changer

Be aware with the A220, A32Xneo familly and this "A230X concept" as a NEW "triple-combo impact" for the market,

A never seen for any manufacturer
Who realy sees a risk in there?

It could be an EXCELLENT 757 proxy that would CHALLENGE the Boeing's ovoid 7-abreast concept /idea!


Image


It could be a GREAT and EXCITING battle in perspective, for the NEXT years to come!!!
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13940
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:54 am

Checklist787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
2x2x2 coach fuselage concerns me as the flattened ovoid fuselage I think we concluded was not worth doing.

Carry on baggage also would be problematic. 1x3x2 seems to offer more carry on capabilities, as well as options on thinner routes to segment higher yield travelers by not selling the middle seat until the aircraft fills. (Airlines could specify this option)

Additionally for long thin routes one needs to attract the more premium yield traveler. What better way to do this than a comfortable twin aisles
4 abreast - first
5 abreast - business
6 abreast - up-sale-able coach

Configuration. Below 230 seats I think this design MAY have merit. Would it have merit with 170 seats as well?


An 8% wider NB is making possible twin aisle 1-2-1 or 1-1-1 in front. In addition to bigger bins, in main cabin, a 50% wider aisle would make possible longer fuselages, passengers would be able to pass each other / carts and (de)board quicker.

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4040/355 ... a2c9_b.jpg[/img]

I would see better this nice concept being something that would come as the next development of Airbus.

Indeed, given the leadership of the A32Xneo family, it would be appropriate for Toulouse to integrate an Airbus NMA product in its catalog, which completes the A32Xneo family with this all-New "A230X concept"

I think it would be interesting for the market and for the futur need included the chines and pacific market

IMHO, I do NOT see a RISK for Toulouse that this kind of new product is LAUNCHED, while completing with the A220/A32Xneo family as a another AGGRESSIVE game-changer

Be aware with the A220, A32Xneo familly and this "A230X concept" as a NEW "triple-combo impact" for the market,

A never seen for any manufacturer
Who realy sees a risk in there?

It could be an EXCELLENT 757 proxy that would CHALLENGE the Boeing's ovoid 7-abreast concept /idea!


https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4040/355 ... a2c9_b.jpg


It could be a GREAT and EXCITING battle in perspective, for the NEXT years to come!!!


I think it is not Airbus that is forced to launch a new design. They sell, produce record numbers & have little competition. On top, there's a few $2-3B optional developments on the shelf to be implemented at due time. https://groups.google.com/group/aviatio ... authuser=0

I agree with Boeing. They must refresh their design approach & NB portfolio.
https://groups.google.com/group/aviatio ... authuser=0

If I was in charge at Boeing :covereyes: , I would go for 140-200 seat <3000NM segment. 10% Lighter, leaner, quiter, cleaner and meaner than the the NEO's, but more capable than the A220s. Look for the bigger 200-270 seat 4000NM segment after that. NMA only distrated from the core NB market segment (140-180 seats) so far.

Image
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Taxi645
Posts: 343
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:29 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:13 pm

Oykie wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/boeing-heads-back-drawing-board-nma

Guy Norris at Aviation week has an article about what it means that Boeing heading back to the drawing board. According to him the size is beloved to have shrimped from 227-275 seats to 160-220. He also writes about the cockpit change without adding more information.


I agree that this approach is likely as argued here:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1433985&p=21815237#p21815237

As argued in that post I think they should split it up in two MTOW/timing variants and start at the small end for reasons listed in that post.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
Noshow
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:24 pm

From my point of view the core market is at least 737-800 size to A321XLR and beyound. Forget about 140 seats. 240 an more is the right size.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:49 pm

keesje wrote:
As long as the MAX was the only option forward, Boeing has been telling new technology, besting the best in class MAX just did't exist.
Believing Boeing for their word proved a unsatisfying tactic as most found out in recent times

For Boeing the time has now come to set aside pride & burry old dogma's.
Calhoun suggests it. Catch up time.

The Yellowstone 1 / MoM, NSA / NMA / FSA /737 Replacement should include:

:arrow: engine options for airlines, at least 2 engines offering BPR 14+, geared fans etc.
:arrow: AKH container / pallet opttions
:arrow: 20th century seatwidth >18 inch seatpan with decent armrests
:arrow: full flight enveloppe protection and pilot support systems (brake to vacate, emergency auto land etc.)
:arrow: full FBW for seamless flight characteritics, load elevation etc.
:arrow: quiet cabins & cockpits
:arrow: at least similar fuel efficiency/empty weight to an A220-500 in a 165 seat / 1500NM configuration.

If Boeing makes it a powerful SUV, that can do 240 passengers / 4500NM too, they will be uncompetitive in the huge 165 seat-1000NM segment and loose e.g. Southwest Airlines.
That's why Calhoun is capping off at 220 seats. The "one hat fits all" days are over.


That is Guy Norris suggesting a MAX of 220 Seats based on a guess.

All Calhoun has said is that they are going back to the drawing board on NMA from a control standpoint. He hasn't said anything about size - just they have to be competitive as well with the Chinese in the future.

To be as light as A220 it would almost have to be a 5W - 6W (or 7W) won't cut it.

And if Calhoun (the only opinion that matters) is really talking about only a 6W 737 replacement there is no way they would stop it at 220 seats when they know that Airbus probably within a year or two will launch an A322 that will have something more like 250-260 seats with Big range due to the new wing.

Finally this brings me back to something I've been saying for a long time.

I don't think NMA was ever as big as some have thought. I remember a Boeing executive stating in an article (although I can't find it anymore) that NMA would be A321 plus another seat in width - call it 265ish seats one class for the big one and 225 for the small - bracketing the A321.

Just like Norris says in the Article - the NMA was about the size of the A321XLR.

Now it could actually get a touch longer than before to be more competitive against a rewing A322.

NMA could just stand for New Middle Airplane. NSA is a 5W Boeing Brazil project (New Small Airplane) and eventually the 787 is the only large frame in production.

Small, Medium and Large and very efficient.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13940
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:56 pm

Noshow wrote:
From my point of view the core market is at least 737-800 size to A321XLR and beyound. Forget about 140 seats. 240 an more is the right size.


Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9386
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:00 pm

What Boeing needs to do, is coming with a new narrow body frame. It is not to leapfrog Airbus, but even just to stay competitive.

Some posters are always talking about the A320 family being also old. Age is not the point, the A320 is at least two generations more advanced than the 737. The A320 is a generation more advanced than the 757/767.
Going FBW was a revolution and that does not mean operating a few functions electrically or even by a computer. It means having the whole system of aircraft flight controls computerized. Having tribble redundancy in all areas.
Embraer is talking that between the E and the E2 the FBW alone is responsible for 2 to 3% increase in efficiency. That number increases I assume with being able to adjust the wing profil according to the flight situation, as it is done on a A350 and not yet on the E2.

The A320 being a FBW frame allows the flow of programs from the new frames, like the A350, downwards to the A320. If Airbus needs new capabilities on the wings, they can take the experience from the A350, do it for the XLR and move it down to the other frames in the A320 family.
Apart from the FBW, the A320 is current on today's requirements, like fulfilling the 16g seat fastening requirement. The A320 has EICAS. I do not know about any serious area, where the A320 has to rely on exemptions.
The A320 has a normal setup regarding escape slides. Enough height on the MLG for the modern engines and is, because of having a higher MLG, easier to stretch. And if they need a higher MLG, it can be done without big problems, things like the slides are there.
Going from the ceo to the neo was no big deal for the A320, changes and weight increase were less for the neo than for the MAX.

I do not think Boeing can do a big jump as there are no revolutionary new concepts out there. But they could build a modern narrowbody. Stay with an aluminium fuselage. Add an FBW. Add new wings. If the numbers show a telling difference, go for a CFRP wing instead of aluminium. Design the frame with a decent height from the ground to go for the most effective engines. Design the frame, so it will be able to run on the current lines without to much change. Think about having to build the MAX and the new frame in parallel for a while.
If Customers want to change over from the MAX to the new frame, so be it. Once in the air again, the MAX will sell for a while or better customers will take delivery, because they need frames and Airbus will not be able supply enough in the next years.

If Boeing will keep to the MAX only, Boeing's market share will slowly disappear, while Airbus is ramping up over the next years.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:04 pm

keesje wrote:
Noshow wrote:
From my point of view the core market is at least 737-800 size to A321XLR and beyound. Forget about 140 seats. 240 an more is the right size.


Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.

And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation. Go figure.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.

And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation. Go figure.



I don't know how seriously we can take the word of the Boeing CEO though, in general. When your pay and benefits are tied to the share price, how much will you be saying to keep investor confidence high versus the reality that will hurt your net worth?
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:44 pm

Noshow wrote:
From my point of view the core market is at least 737-800 size to A321XLR and beyound. Forget about 140 seats. 240 an more is the right size.


And,

keesje wrote:
Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.


And,

keesje wrote:
If I was in charge at Boeing :covereyes: , I would go for 140-200 seat <3000NM segment. 10% Lighter, leaner, quiter, cleaner and meaner than the the NEO's, but more capable than the A220s. Look for the bigger 200-270 seat 4000NM segment after that. NMA only distrated from the core NB market segment (140-180 seats) so far.


It's interesting but HOW can it fill a GAP from 140 to 200 seats with one SINGLE fuselage?

It's like competing with BOTH A220-300 and the A321neo, right?

The idea is pleasant,

But, it cannot be effective everywhere for me...

Image
Last edited by Checklist787 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 802
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:53 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.

And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation. Go figure.



I don't know how seriously we can take the word of the Boeing CEO though, in general. When your pay and benefits are tied to the share price, how much will you be saying to keep investor confidence high versus the reality that will hurt your net worth?

Its common sense though, you can't replace the 737 Max now. Even if you started the engineering work for a new plane now, it will take 7 years minimum for EIS. By the time the new plane gains market mass (say 2 to 3 years for a narrowbody), it is a generation (about 10 years) away. If you read it positively, we would be seeing a new, very advanced narrowbody in the market in about 10 years time, just in time for the first wave of A320neo retirements.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:08 pm

keesje wrote:
If I was in charge at Boeing :covereyes: , I would go for 140-200 seat <3000NM segment.


Really?

The A220-100/300 range is 3,400 nmi / 3,350 nmi
The MAX-7/8/9/10 range is 3,850 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,300 nmi
The A320/321/XLR range is 3,500 nmi / 4,000 nmi / 4,700 nmi
C919/ER range is 2,200 nmi / 3,000 nm

Why would you think that going back a generation to a shorter range (or commensurate with Chinese jet) would create a better selling jet for Boeing?
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:08 pm

Noshow wrote:
From
my point of view the core market is at least 737-800 size to A321XLR and beyound. Forget about 140 seats. 240 an more is the right size.


keesje wrote:
Airbus will improve the A320, boost A220-300 production & launch A220-500. Boeing would be in a weak poistion in a segment of 10.000-15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus will have delivered already thousands of A321 by the time Boeing comes up with anything. E.g. Delta, United and American moved away to A321s already.


Revelation wrote:
Go figure.

It's the traditional smoke screen à la Boeing...

Revelation wrote:
And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation.


But wanting to replace the 737MAX I don't believe it. Handing over the 737MAX EIS will COST Boeing +20 Billion USD.

The launch of a brand new replacement 737MAX is inconceivable, as it would ADD 12 Billion USD to the bill for a total of +32 Billion USD!

You might as well offer an NMA / FSA as a 757 replacement at this price and strech your offer for the market with something else...
Last edited by Checklist787 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:19 pm, edited 4 times in total.
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:11 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation. Go figure.

I don't know how seriously we can take the word of the Boeing CEO though, in general. When your pay and benefits are tied to the share price, how much will you be saying to keep investor confidence high versus the reality that will hurt your net worth?

Even before the regime change it was clear Boeing had to do all it can do to get MAX re-established along a similar trajectory as it had before the groundings, and that's exactly what Calhoun said he plans to do.

Calhoun said the company is not considering scrapping the MAX and expects it will continue to fly for a generation. “I am all in on it and the company is all in on it,” Calhoun said, adding Boeing will not launch a marketing campaign to get customers to get back on 737 MAX planes.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2MA

The reality is if they wanted an all new 6W they could not hope to have something to offer for another year or two and EIS another six or more years into the future, and as we saw from MAX, Boeing isn't good working under time pressure.

So he may be saying what maximizes investor confidence etc but it is the only way forward. Spending $billions to end up with a product largely overlapped by your entrenched competitor is still not the way to go, IMO.

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I don't know how seriously we can take the word of the Boeing CEO though, in general. When your pay and benefits are tied to the share price, how much will you be saying to keep investor confidence high versus the reality that will hurt your net worth?

Its common sense though, you can't replace the 737 Max now. Even if you started the engineering work for a new plane now, it will take 7 years minimum for EIS. By the time the new plane gains market mass (say 2 to 3 years for a narrowbody), it is a generation (about 10 years) away. If you read it positively, we would be seeing a new, very advanced narrowbody in the market in about 10 years time, just in time for the first wave of A320neo retirements.[/quote]
I agree. The time lines just do not line up well for an all new 6W at this point in time, IMO. They are still better off aiming for a weak spot in their competitor's offerings rather than squashing the MAX and trying to offer a 6W with very similar tech as their competitor can already build at high volume and low cost.

Just after the Muilenburg sacking I offered my odds of what would happen going forward, and gave:
    45% NMA (i.e. 7W MOM)
    45% Do nothing
    5% NSA (i.e. 6W 737 replacement)

I don't think they have changed much. If anything I'd reduce NMA and increase the do nothing odds, not increase the NSA odds.

Maybe we'll know more in six months to a year from now, but I don't see things changing much if at all in the short term.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
And yet the Boeing CEO just said MAX will fly for a generation. Go figure.


Boeing has built something over 800 MAX. Assuming RTS in "mid summer", even if Boeing doesn't build another single MAX, the 800+ will fly for a generation. :spin:

That said (in jest), yes the normal interpretation of his words would be that Boeing will be building MAXes for 'a generation'.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:22 pm

morrisond wrote:
NMA could just stand for New Middle Airplane. NSA is a 5W Boeing Brazil project (New Small Airplane) and eventually the 787 is the only large frame in production.

Small, Medium and Large and very efficient.


While I don't agree for your designations of acroynms, that's not a bad plan for Boeing's long term future. Perhaps the best I've seen so far.

In 10 years time, a 787neo will do everything the 777X does, only better - except cabin space.

Only concern would be - how big is the 5AB market? Can it sustain two competitors given the CSeries will be in the market for 15 years prior to a Boeing/Embraer NSA?
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:23 pm

As for what we are being told is going on at Boeing:

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun “has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market,” spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would “build upon what has been learned ... in design and production.”

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM

I don't think we've had any bold technological innovations over the last 2.5 years that change what can be built.

The main influence over that time is large A321 sales.

One could look at that as an indicator of what the market wants and aim for it.

One can look at it as what the market will get over the next several years so that market space will be saturated by the time you can address it.

It'll be interesting to see what direction Boeing moves in the mid to long term.

In the short term, it's clear they will be focused on MAX RTS.

As above I'm inclined to think they will be licking their wounds for the next several years and will vote for 'do nothing' till the MAX crisis is in the rear view mirror.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Its common sense though, you can't replace the 737 Max now. Even if you started the engineering work for a new plane now, it will take 7 years minimum for EIS. By the time the new plane gains market mass (say 2 to 3 years for a narrowbody), it is a generation (about 10 years) away. If you read it positively, we would be seeing a new, very advanced narrowbody in the market in about 10 years time, just in time for the first wave of A320neo retirements.

I agree. The time lines just do not line up well for an all new 6W at this point in time, IMO. They are still better off aiming for a weak spot in their competitor's offerings rather than squashing the MAX and trying to offer a 6W with very similar tech as their competitor can already build at high volume and low cost.

Just after the Muilenburg sacking I offered my odds of what would happen going forward, and gave:
    45% NMA (i.e. 7W MOM)
    45% Do nothing
    5% NSA (i.e. 6W 737 replacement)

I don't think they have changed much. If anything I'd reduce NMA and increase the do nothing odds, not increase the NSA odds.

Maybe we'll know more in six months to a year from now, but I don't see things changing much if at all in the short term.


Yeah - it'll likely take Boeing 10 years to replace single aisle. Same for Airbus.

Both companies are well aware that if they ____ that one up, then they could start down the McAir slope to irrelevance in the market.

A twin aisle NMA is a waste of resources. A 737 replacement that EIS some time around 2030 (in volume) will need to be started, in earnest, now.

The problem Boeing would then have would be bridging production between 737 and "797" - with the current debacle, an already difficult problem has become even more horrible.


So what is there that a "797" could have that couldn't easily go onto an A32x?

- CFRP wing [improved fuel burn & improved MRO]
- CNF infused resin within that CFRP [improved manufacturability, fuel burn & MRO]
- High aspect ratio wing (poss. with folding wingtips) - design Mach number reduced for improved L/D [improved fuel burn]
- Modern systems architecture with predictive maintenance [improved dispatch and MRO]
- Battery augmentation of propulsor for OEI scenarios [improved fuel burn]
- Electric taxi [improved fuel burn, reduced emissions]
- Distributed propulsors (unlikely, too low in TRL) [improved fuel burn]
- Wider fuselage - can go 1+2+1 in 1st class, wider economy aisle & bigger overhead bins for improved turnaround

What would all that add up to? Hard to say.
Last edited by Amiga500 on Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:41 pm

scbriml wrote:
That said (in jest), yes the normal interpretation of his words would be that Boeing will be building MAXes for 'a generation'.

Calhoun has addressed this in a bit more depth:

Calhoun indicates he has faith in the resilience of the MAX backlog, despite the grounding, and that this will give the company some breathing room for developing a successor. “I am guessing and projecting that the MAX will hold its own (and) that the market split that existed prior to the MCAS (maneuvering characteristics augmentation system – the flight control system software at the heart of the MAX accidents) will restore itself and that will give us a lot of freedom on that next airplane. But I wouldn't kid you if there were a reason that that share position didn't restore itself.”

Ref: https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -board-nma

This lines up with what I have written before: the decisions of 2011 can't be undone. Boeing committed itself, its partners and its customers to MAX for a generation, and Boeing simply cannot squash that by announcing a NSA nor even give overt hints of doing a NSA till every possible attempt to restore MAX has been exhausted.

If their new study finds NMA is not viable, I still think 'do nothing' or perhaps 'tread water' is second most likely outcome, until Calhoun's projection of restoring MAX market share becomes clearly untenable and they have no choice but go to NSA with whatever tech is available at the time. Yet as above the customers already have a big investment in MAX so I think MAX restoration is likely.

I realize many here think MAX is already untenable, but clearly Calhoun is not willing to offer up such a suggestion. Internally they may feel less confident but they can't even hint at it if they do. I'd think the likely outcome of the new study will be that the tech doesn't exist to do better than MAX in the near term so we're going to stick with MAX. Clearly that study won't see light of day till the MAX crisis passes.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
DenverTed
Posts: 475
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:50 pm

WIederling wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Easier embarking, disembarking.


Observation:
solve problems at a point where susceptibility to a change is highest:

fiddling with aisle width has low impact.
But:
There is an absolutely simple solution with high impact.
Board from both ends. ( Ryan Air works that to great success.)
Potential gain is the halving of boarding times!

another thing to look at is door size.
on exit the limiting factor is the door size and not the aisles.
on entry I'd see the doors as a first choke point too.

From my observation, on exit the limiting factor is how fast people unload the overhead. If 180 pax 3s is a 9 min unload. 15s is a 45 min unload.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:18 pm

DenverTed wrote:
WIederling wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Easier embarking, disembarking.


Observation:
solve problems at a point where susceptibility to a change is highest:

fiddling with aisle width has low impact.
But:
There is an absolutely simple solution with high impact.
Board from both ends. ( Ryan Air works that to great success.)
Potential gain is the halving of boarding times!

another thing to look at is door size.
on exit the limiting factor is the door size and not the aisles.
on entry I'd see the doors as a first choke point too.

From my observation, on exit the limiting factor is how fast people unload the overhead. If 180 pax 3s is a 9 min unload. 15s is a 45 min unload.


For Wiederling: Yes I agree boarding from both ends would help a lot. But that requires logistics changes at the gate / stand at the airports. And I agree about the size of the door as well, which is why I suggested a wider L1 door in my post.

For DenverTed: I agree. I think wider aisle, which means a wider aircraft could help with the unload/loading of the overhead bins. Because if the aisle is wider, people can much easier pass each other while others are stowing their luggage in the bins. On both A320 and 737 this is an issue today, every time someone stows something in the bins, it clogs the line. And on disembarking, people are almost standing on top of each other while pulling their items from the bins. Another point is that with a wider aircraft, you can get deeper, more spacious bins and possibly ease the loading and unloading of them.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
This lines up with what I have written before: the decisions of 2011 can't be undone. Boeing committed itself, its partners and its customers to MAX for a generation, and Boeing simply cannot squash that by announcing a NSA nor even give overt hints of doing a NSA till every possible attempt to restore MAX has been exhausted.


Agreed. Boeing is 'all in' on MAX and has to play its hand however crappy it looks just now.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:52 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This lines up with what I have written before: the decisions of 2011 can't be undone. Boeing committed itself, its partners and its customers to MAX for a generation, and Boeing simply cannot squash that by announcing a NSA nor even give overt hints of doing a NSA till every possible attempt to restore MAX has been exhausted.


Agreed. Boeing is 'all in' on MAX and has to play its hand however crappy it looks just now.


It's always darkest before the dawn.

No real reason to replace MAX with a similar sized product right now. It won't really be that much more efficient.

Either go bigger and take the space just above A321 - or Airbus's eventual Rewing A322 or go low and Fight the A220 with a 5W People mover up to 200Y seats (Sardine class) and 3,000NM range for the cast majority of missions.

Almost anyway you look at it's a fight with the most sensible route being - slightly bigger than A322 in big NMA size (call it 290-300 Yseats) and about 321 in smaller NMA size (but with more range).
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:09 pm

morrisond wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This lines up with what I have written before: the decisions of 2011 can't be undone. Boeing committed itself, its partners and its customers to MAX for a generation, and Boeing simply cannot squash that by announcing a NSA nor even give overt hints of doing a NSA till every possible attempt to restore MAX has been exhausted.


Agreed. Boeing is 'all in' on MAX and has to play its hand however crappy it looks just now.


It's always darkest before the dawn.

No real reason to replace MAX with a similar sized product right now. It won't really be that much more efficient.

Either go bigger and take the space just above A321 - or Airbus's eventual Rewing A322 or go low and Fight the A220 with a 5W People mover up to 200Y seats (Sardine class) and 3,000NM range for the cast majority of missions.

Almost anyway you look at it's a fight with the most sensible route being - slightly bigger than A322 in big NMA size (call it 290-300 Yseats) and about 321 in smaller NMA size (but with more range).


The launch of the 737MAX replacement is inconceivable, as it would ADD 12 Billion USD to the bill for a total of +32 Billion USD!

Boeing might as well offer a NMA / FSA as a 757 replacement at this price and strech your offer for the market with something else ...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13940
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:37 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
keesje wrote:
If I was in charge at Boeing :covereyes: , I would go for 140-200 seat <3000NM segment.


Really?

The A220-100/300 range is 3,400 nmi / 3,350 nmi
The MAX-7/8/9/10 range is 3,850 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,300 nmi
The A320/321/XLR range is 3,500 nmi / 4,000 nmi / 4,700 nmi
C919/ER range is 2,200 nmi / 3,000 nm

Why would you think that going back a generation to a shorter range (or commensurate with Chinese jet) would create a better selling jet for Boeing?


Because the bulk of flight is <1000NM and if you can offer something unbeatable for that demanding segment you make more money than with another A321. Unbeatable in efficiency, flexibility, production costs, global sourcing.

https://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z16 ... zation.jpg

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:45 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Boeing might as well offer a NMA / FSA as a 757 replacement at this price and strech your offer for the market with something else ...


Even though you disagree, FSA is the eventual 737 replacement, so we can forget that for a few years.

So, the question is, given Calhoun says they're starting over on NMA and that MAX is their top priority, what flavour of NMA might emerge from Boeing's rethink and when?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:08 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Boeing might as well offer a NMA / FSA as a 757 replacement at this price and strech your offer for the market with something else ...


Even though you disagree, FSA is the eventual 737 replacement, so we can forget that for a few years.

So, the question is, given Calhoun says they're starting over on NMA and that MAX is their top priority, what flavour of NMA might emerge from Boeing's rethink and when?

It's a broad question, far too speculative for me to offer a guess.

What I find interesting is Calhoun said Boeing will "start with a clean sheet of paper again" and did not say "we are suspending all development efforts on new airplanes till MAX returns to service and full production rate is restored".

At the very least we know people within the company are considering what kind of new plane to do rather than being told to stand down.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:15 pm

So far 'tea leaves' from the CEO, we all can make of it what we will.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 7:42 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Boeing might as well offer a NMA / FSA as a 757 replacement at this price and strech your offer for the market with something else ...


scbriml wrote:
Even though you disagree, FSA is the eventual 737 replacement, so we can forget that for a few years.


Only "eventual"?
it has clearly been said that FSA is a replacement for 757. It must have an overlap on the 737MAX...
So, this is to be only an eventuality


scbriml wrote:
So, the question is, given Calhoun says they're starting over on NMA and that MAX is their top priority, what flavour of NMA might emerge from Boeing's rethink and when?


The flavor of being able to produce an aircraft at low cost which would be risky to implement it on a replacement 737MAX now!

Anyway, it seems that the marketing department and the design offices always catch a CEO to inform them of their plan.

Calhoun was just informed, and was held to accept it

And that's what happened...

Image
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19107
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:07 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
it has clearly been said that FSA is a replacement for 757.


Said clearly by whom?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:12 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
it has clearly been said that FSA is a replacement for 757.


Said clearly by whom?


Seating 2-class 180-220 passengers it's anything other than a 737 seater isn't it?
I suspect the FSA seat count is 32" in pitch, mixed class like the 757,
In other words FSA is a 757 proxy

737MAX familly
2-Class @ 30" pitch economy
737MAX-8 = 173 seats
737MAX-9 =193 seats
737MAX-10= 204 seats

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
TObound
Posts: 781
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:54 pm

astuteman wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I agree with you on the China not going outside if it has a viable alternative inside (C919) - that is why Boeing can't produce a me too aircraft if they want any chance to sell them inside China or to China's Silk Road Partners. It must be substantially better and more efficient.

China will not be afraid to sell under cost just to cement sales - whereas Boeing will need to make a profit.


It does make me wonder why Boeing/the USA isn't taking the same hard line against COMAC as it has against Airbus and Bombardier at the WTO as well as the Trade Dept.

Mystifies me how a few $Bn for the C-Series or A380 nearly ends in a war, whereas $20Bn on the C919 doesn't produce a ripple.
I did think Boeing were adopting a "We're not letting this happen again" approach. *shrug*

Rgds


Because China is a big market for Boeing. This is one of many double-standards that pissed off Canadians and resulted in them rallying around Bombardier despite the company being seen as a local corporate welfare queen.
 
aerohottie
Posts: 828
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:58 pm

TObound wrote:
astuteman wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I agree with you on the China not going outside if it has a viable alternative inside (C919) - that is why Boeing can't produce a me too aircraft if they want any chance to sell them inside China or to China's Silk Road Partners. It must be substantially better and more efficient.

China will not be afraid to sell under cost just to cement sales - whereas Boeing will need to make a profit.


It does make me wonder why Boeing/the USA isn't taking the same hard line against COMAC as it has against Airbus and Bombardier at the WTO as well as the Trade Dept.

Mystifies me how a few $Bn for the C-Series or A380 nearly ends in a war, whereas $20Bn on the C919 doesn't produce a ripple.
I did think Boeing were adopting a "We're not letting this happen again" approach. *shrug*

Rgds


Because China is a big market for Boeing. This is one of many double-standards that pissed off Canadians and resulted in them rallying around Bombardier despite the company being seen as a local corporate welfare queen.


So is Europe...
What?
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24308
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:01 pm

TObound wrote:
Because China is a big market for Boeing. This is one of many double-standards that pissed off Canadians and resulted in them rallying around Bombardier despite the company being seen as a local corporate welfare queen.

EU is a large customer for Boeing too, yet they've been chasing Airbus via the WTO for at least a decade now.

People should probably relax, this is all just business stuff, and Boeing's competitors are quick to raise their own actions against Boeing too.

I realize this is the outrage / hot take era, but I have to wonder when we all hit the tipping point into an era of outrage fatigue.

It's pretty exhausting to get pissed off about all the things everyone around me seems to think I should be getting pissed off about.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TObound
Posts: 781
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
As for what we are being told is going on at Boeing:

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun “has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market,” spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would “build upon what has been learned ... in design and production.”

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM

I don't think we've had any bold technological innovations over the last 2.5 years that change what can be built.

The main influence over that time is large A321 sales.

One could look at that as an indicator of what the market wants and aim for it.

One can look at it as what the market will get over the next several years so that market space will be saturated by the time you can address it.

It'll be interesting to see what direction Boeing moves in the mid to long term.

In the short term, it's clear they will be focused on MAX RTS.

As above I'm inclined to think they will be licking their wounds for the next several years and will vote for 'do nothing' till the MAX crisis is in the rear view mirror.


I am inclined to go with the most obvious strategy. They will bracket the 321. It's already shown there's a market. And the growth in most market show a need for a 200 seater. The ideal aircraft is something about the size of the MAX 9 with engines optimized for 2 hr flights. Then make the larger aircraft at or above the 322 in size. The LR and XLR are really distractions. They aren't a huge segment. It's the bulk of the 321NEO sales that Boeing needs to tackle. And that's the fat segment that will produce enough profits to pay for development.

Anything less than 200 seats has to be with Boeing Brasil.
 
DenverTed
Posts: 475
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:33 pm

Assuming the NMA they were working on was a 2-3-2 with about 50K engines and 50m wingspan, I thought the strategy was wrong. They needed to downsize a little closer to the A321. More like a 42K engine and a 42m folding wing that fit in a 36m gate. I am in favor of a 2-2-2 circular 172" AL tube, but a 3-3 circular 162" (outside diameter) tube with a wide aisle works too.
Last edited by DenverTed on Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TObound
Posts: 781
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:37 pm

aerohottie wrote:
TObound wrote:
astuteman wrote:

It does make me wonder why Boeing/the USA isn't taking the same hard line against COMAC as it has against Airbus and Bombardier at the WTO as well as the Trade Dept.

Mystifies me how a few $Bn for the C-Series or A380 nearly ends in a war, whereas $20Bn on the C919 doesn't produce a ripple.
I did think Boeing were adopting a "We're not letting this happen again" approach. *shrug*

Rgds


Because China is a big market for Boeing. This is one of many double-standards that pissed off Canadians and resulted in them rallying around Bombardier despite the company being seen as a local corporate welfare queen.


So is Europe...


The EU isn't likely to just turn off orders as though it's a light switch being flicked. The Chinese have that ability.

You'll see the same hypocrisy from American carriers. They love to complain about the Middle Eastern carriers getting subsidies covertly and being State Owned Enterprises. Not a peep about the Chinese carriers who are SOEs too.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos