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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:43 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
it has clearly been said that FSA is a replacement for 757.


Said clearly by whom?


Seating 2-class 180-220 passengers it's anything other than a 737 seater isn't it?
I suspect the FSA seat count is 32" in pitch, mixed class like the 757,
In other words FSA is a 757 proxy

737MAX familly
2-Class @ 30" pitch economy
737MAX-8 = 173 seats
737MAX-9 =193 seats
737MAX-10= 204 seats

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/


So nothing directly by Boeing?

Anyway, it's NMA that's being done over. Given the commitment to MAX stated by Calhoun, FSA likely won't see the light of day for many years. Indeed, I bellieve FSA has not even been mentioned by Calhoun.
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:52 pm

keesje wrote:
Because the bulk of flight is <1000NM and if you can offer something unbeatable for that demanding segment you make more money than with another A321. Unbeatable in efficiency, flexibility, production costs, global sourcing.


I think that is probably true. I don't have hard statistics for Asia and Europe, but it seems reasonable.

But you force airlines to procure at least two jets, the MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY BOEING < 3000NM jet and the A321neo. while that may not be a problem for AA, UA, DL I think most other airlines will elect to go with an all Airbus fleet.

Average domestic flight in statute miles for 2018 for US airlines
WN 808
G4 897
DL 962
NK 1,034
AA 1,075
F9 1,108
B6 1,155
UA 1,262
AS 1,355
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:01 am

TObound wrote:
I am inclined to go with the most obvious strategy. They will bracket the 321. It's already shown there's a market. And the growth in most market show a need for a 200 seater. The ideal aircraft is something about the size of the MAX 9 with engines optimized for 2 hr flights. Then make the larger aircraft at or above the 322 in size. The LR and XLR are really distractions. They aren't a huge segment. It's the bulk of the 321NEO sales that Boeing needs to tackle. And that's the fat segment that will produce enough profits to pay for development.

Anything less than 200 seats has to be with Boeing Brasil.


IMO, that is the right move. Bracket the A321. Boeing already has the below covered competitively in the MAX8. What they don't have is something that can beat an A321. Also the market appears to be looking for is something a little bigger and certainly more capable than the A321LR/XLR, and that's the upper end of platform range. It's all about a platform now. Then in 20 or so years use the new technology platform for a smaller narrowbody to replace the MAX. I don't know if Calhoun is thinking that way with the NMA, but his hints don't exclude it.

Sadly, this as a narrowbody plane and I don't know if passengers will accept a long-haul narrowbody, but from a business perspective that's what I see.
Last edited by MSPNWA on Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:02 am

enzo011 wrote:
I don't know how seriously we can take the word of the Boeing CEO though, in general. When your pay and benefits are tied to the share price, how much will you be saying to keep investor confidence high versus the reality that will hurt your net worth?


Honest! We are not building a MAX replacement. Just a clean sheet NMA.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:19 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Said clearly by whom?


Seating 2-class 180-220 passengers it's anything other than a 737 seater isn't it?
I suspect the FSA seat count is 32" in pitch, mixed class like the 757,
In other words FSA is a 757 proxy

737MAX familly
2-Class @ 30" pitch economy
737MAX-8 = 173 seats
737MAX-9 =193 seats
737MAX-10= 204 seats

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/


So nothing directly by Boeing?

Anyway, it's NMA that's being done over. Given the commitment to MAX stated by Calhoun, FSA likely won't see the light of day for many years. Indeed, I bellieve FSA has not even been mentioned by Calhoun.


From concept to EIS can take 10 years. It's difficult to see FSA entering service before 2030 if Boeing starts from scratch.
Good moaning!
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:31 am

Revelation wrote:
As for what we are being told is going on at Boeing:

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun “has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market,” spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would “build upon what has been learned ... in design and production.”

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM

I don't think we've had any bold technological innovations over the last 2.5 years that change what can be built.

The main influence over that time is large A321 sales.

One could look at that as an indicator of what the market wants and aim for it.

One can look at it as what the market will get over the next several years so that market space will be saturated by the time you can address it.

It'll be interesting to see what direction Boeing moves in the mid to long term.

In the short term, it's clear they will be focused on MAX RTS.

As above I'm inclined to think they will be licking their wounds for the next several years and will vote for 'do nothing' till the MAX crisis is in the rear view mirror.



A new CEO really needs to do this, as it has his name on it - is all the research on real assumptions or wishful thinking, important to know. Other things - airplane orders may be slowing, the orders from China and India are likely different. On the supply side, is there a desire for more in house work, or less. Where to build it, the USMCA may have changed some aspects, but also I think it will be a streamlined program - only LEAP engines, possibly a little smaller plane.

I think the Do NMA chance as rising - it is obvious that a 737 replacement needs to be in the pipeline which the NMA is. Authority to office will happen about when half of the MAX's have returned to service. A 1 to 1.5 years added to the schedule to reduce project cost.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:41 am

MSPNWA wrote:
TObound wrote:
I am inclined to go with the most obvious strategy. They will bracket the 321. It's already shown there's a market. And the growth in most market show a need for a 200 seater. The ideal aircraft is something about the size of the MAX 9 with engines optimized for 2 hr flights. Then make the larger aircraft at or above the 322 in size. The LR and XLR are really distractions. They aren't a huge segment. It's the bulk of the 321NEO sales that Boeing needs to tackle. And that's the fat segment that will produce enough profits to pay for development.

Anything less than 200 seats has to be with Boeing Brasil.


IMO, that is the right move. Bracket the A321. Boeing already has the below covered competitively in the MAX8. What they don't have is something that can beat an A321. Also the market appears to be looking for is something a little bigger and certainly more capable than the A321LR/XLR, and that's the upper end of platform range. It's all about a platform now. Then in 20 or so years use the new technology platform for a smaller narrowbody to replace the MAX. I don't know if Calhoun is thinking that way with the NMA, but his hints don't exclude it.

Sadly, this as a narrowbody plane and I don't know if passengers will accept a long-haul narrowbody, but from a business perspective that's what I see.


I have said this elsewhere. The 321NEO is a bit of a compromise. Too large to be a 200 seater LCC airplane. Too small to be a 200 seater long hauler. Bracketing the 321NEO lets them negate the compromise. The small aircraft has to be between the Max 8 and Max 9 in size enabling say ~200 in a Southwest configuration. And the larger aircraft big enough to carry 200 pax in Y/Y+/J with lie-flats up front. That's at least 5-7 rows on top of the 321NEO.

As for what passengers will accept, it's not much relevant when the other option is either a connection or more expensive flight.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:00 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Revelation wrote:
As for what we are being told is going on at Boeing:

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun “has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market,” spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would “build upon what has been learned ... in design and production.”

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM

I don't think we've had any bold technological innovations over the last 2.5 years that change what can be built.

The main influence over that time is large A321 sales.

One could look at that as an indicator of what the market wants and aim for it.

One can look at it as what the market will get over the next several years so that market space will be saturated by the time you can address it.

It'll be interesting to see what direction Boeing moves in the mid to long term.

In the short term, it's clear they will be focused on MAX RTS.

As above I'm inclined to think they will be licking their wounds for the next several years and will vote for 'do nothing' till the MAX crisis is in the rear view mirror.



A new CEO really needs to do this, as it has his name on it - is all the research on real assumptions or wishful thinking, important to know. Other things - airplane orders may be slowing, the orders from China and India are likely different. On the supply side, is there a desire for more in house work, or less. Where to build it, the USMCA may have changed some aspects, but also I think it will be a streamlined program - only LEAP engines, possibly a little smaller plane.

I think the Do NMA chance as rising - it is obvious that a 737 replacement needs to be in the pipeline which the NMA is. Authority to office will happen about when half of the MAX's have returned to service. A 1 to 1.5 years added to the schedule to reduce project cost.


I suspect a number of factors are at play:

1) The 321NEO really took off. And now the LR and XLR are taking the 757 replacement market. It's shown them whar the market really wants: 200 seaters.

2) Sales growth is finally happening in India and China. And that is changing how big narrownodies have to be and how far they have to go. 2000NM isn't even great for TCON, but is absolutely huge in Asia or Europe.

3) Somebody finally told the CEO about the lack of D gates in a lot of these emerging markets. And how pressing demand on airports means getting the most out of C gates.

4). Their tech on various manufacturing techniques and technologies is finally maturing enough that they can deploy it advantageously. I'm thinking out-of-autoclave and additive manufacturing has matured enough to get production costs down.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:05 am

TObound wrote:
I have said this elsewhere. The 321NEO is a bit of a compromise. Too large to be a 200 seater LCC airplane. Too small to be a 200 seater long hauler. Bracketing the 321NEO lets them negate the compromise. The small aircraft has to be between the Max 8 and Max 9 in size enabling say ~200 in a Southwest configuration. And the larger aircraft big enough to carry 200 pax in Y/Y+/J with lie-flats up front. That's at least 5-7 rows on top of the 321NEO.

As for what passengers will accept, it's not much relevant when the other option is either a connection or more expensive flight.

Unfortunately it'll be at least a year and more likely two before we learn if you are correct or not via Boeing gaining Ability to Offer such a product.

PS: Seattle Times (see link in my post in the Grounding thread) quotes Calhoun as saying he would have rebooted the NSA effort even if the MAX tragedy had not occurred, but it seems he wouldn't be CEO if DM had handled the MAX tragedy better so it's a pretty disingenuous comment IMO.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:22 am

FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 38.article ) gives some interesting quotes from Calhoun regarding the decision to "reassess our commercial product development strategy to determine what family of airplanes will be needed in the future":

“This is a decision [that] me and our new commercial aircraft leader wanted to make. We will not design our next airplane on the basis of the A321,” he says. “I know where the NMA is targeted now. I want to be sure I understand everything about the widebody, narrowbody world.
...
I want to make sure we have an airplane [specification] that I believe in,” Calhoun says. “As soon as we come to a [specification] on what we want to do, we will move forward very quickly.”

There's a lot of ways to interpret all of this.

It doesn't really change the way I interpreted it earlier, that a lot of the NMA reboot was based on the Calhoun/Deal regime change.

It's interesting how personal Calhoun makes it. He personally wants to learn more, he personally wants a specification he believes in.

IMO it's a good thing he wants personal involvement. DM didn't seem to need or want this kind of hands on involvement.

Calhoun may want to change things just to put his stamp on things, which may not be good.

It very well may turn out that he does his investigation and decides the NMA thinking was more or less correct.

I wonder how long it would take Boeing to come up with detailed enough FSA proposal to decide if it's a better than what they already know about NMA?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:39 am

Whatever they end up doing, I think it's likely we'll see both an A220-500 and an A322 on the market before Boeing's new plane. Exactly what kind of plane to develop next is not an easy decision. But a very interesting one.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:08 am

Revelation wrote:
FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 38.article ) gives some interesting quotes from Calhoun regarding the decision to "reassess our commercial product development strategy to determine what family of airplanes will be needed in the future":

“This is a decision [that] me and our new commercial aircraft leader wanted to make. We will not design our next airplane on the basis of the A321,” he says. “I know where the NMA is targeted now. I want to be sure I understand everything about the widebody, narrowbody world.
...
I want to make sure we have an airplane [specification] that I believe in,” Calhoun says. “As soon as we come to a [specification] on what we want to do, we will move forward very quickly.”

There's a lot of ways to interpret all of this.

It doesn't really change the way I interpreted it earlier, that a lot of the NMA reboot was based on the Calhoun/Deal regime change.

It's interesting how personal Calhoun makes it. He personally wants to learn more, he personally wants a specification he believes in.

IMO it's a good thing he wants personal involvement. DM didn't seem to need or want this kind of hands on involvement.

Calhoun may want to change things just to put his stamp on things, which may not be good.

It very well may turn out that he does his investigation and decides the NMA thinking was more or less correct.

I wonder how long it would take Boeing to come up with detailed enough FSA proposal to decide if it's a better than what they already know about NMA?


Thanks for the link. Now that, realistically, we're talking about close to 2030 for either NSA or NMAmkII, it makes little strategic sense to do two separate families (it made little sense earlier either IMO). An NSA has to be able to fly 6hr trans-con routes; the aero/structural penalty for 10hr range over 6hr will be very small given 2030's engine/aero tech. It's so close that the far-wiser move will be to address the differing mission requirements via family variants.

Future planes will have such gently-sloped payload/range curves that a 6hr plane with LCC load of 200pax could be a 10hr plane with FSC load of 120pax.

...the foregoing assumes that Boeing will drop this "no moonshots" nonsense and actually build a cutting-edge plane again. If they don't do so then duller aerospace industries (China) will easily compete with Boeing on price.

If the low-risk strategy is the preferred "build something" play then I agree with Aboulafia that Boeing might be better off (under existing corporate law) just returning cash to shareholders and gradually receding into the background.

Metapoint: If Airbus and Boeing are a "natural duopoly" at the moment, they need to be more heavily regulated. Every analysis of their climate impact (i.e. fuel efficiency of their products) agrees they are far behind the tech frontier of what is feasible. In a just world, these corporations would be compelled to produce something better than warmed-over designs older than most of the world's population. If necessary (probably is), governments should be risk-sharing on more aggressive product-development paths to instantiate the most basic advances they're ignoring, such as truss-braced wings. Of course that's not going to happen, given global elite's self-serving worship at the altar of the free market. For anybody not beholden to prevailing dogma, it's just ridiculous that we continue to endanger the species' survival to guard against intervention in an obviously failed market space.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:15 am

The experience gained from the Red Hawk trainer means that Boeing is no able to move from design to production much faster than before.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:35 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Said clearly by whom?


Seating 2-class 180-220 passengers it's anything other than a 737 seater isn't it?
I suspect the FSA seat count is 32" in pitch, mixed class like the 757,
In other words FSA is a 757 proxy

737MAX familly
2-Class @ 30" pitch economy
737MAX-8 = 173 seats
737MAX-9 =193 seats
737MAX-10= 204 seats

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/


So nothing directly by Boeing?

Anyway, it's NMA that's being done over. Given the commitment to MAX stated by Calhoun, FSA likely won't see the light of day for many years. Indeed, I bellieve FSA has not even been mentioned by Calhoun.


The FSA was revealed by J. Ostrower by disclosing the airlines approached by Boeing to discuss an aircraft carrying 180-210 passengers ... But it may be (among) other than NMA-MK2 is going in this direction, but that of course remains a theory. But there is something on the fire which is preparing for all the reasons already mentioned...
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:36 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Whatever they end up doing, I think it's likely we'll see both an A220-500 and an A322 on the market before Boeing's new plane. Exactly what kind of plane to develop next is not an easy decision. But a very interesting one.


If Boeing is taking their sweet time over what to do next, I’m not sure what would push Airbus to go ahead with either of those options. Unless airlines totally reject the A330neo as a 767 replacement, the risk would be an A322 would cannibalise A321XLR sales.

Matt6461 wrote:
Thanks for the link. Now that, realistically, we're talking about close to 2030 for either NSA or NMAmkII, it makes little strategic sense to do two separate families (it made little sense earlier either IMO). An NSA has to be able to fly 6hr trans-con routes; the aero/structural penalty for 10hr range over 6hr will be very small given 2030's engine/aero tech. It's so close that the far-wiser move will be to address the differing mission requirements via family variants.


That sounds a bit like a jack of all trades. Would it be master of any?

seahawk wrote:
The experience gained from the Red Hawk trainer means that Boeing is no able to move from design to production much faster than before.


Lehman had an interesting graphic showing the development times of the 737 families. It’s interesting how, with all the computing power and tools available today, plane development seems to be taking much longer than when engineers used slide rules and literal drawing boards. Look how long MAX development was compared to the original 737 built from scratch.
Image

Checklist787 wrote:
But there is something on the fire which is preparing for all the reasons already mentioned...


It sounds as though the fire has been turned down to a simmer.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:57 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Whatever they end up doing, I think it's likely we'll see both an A220-500 and an A322 on the market before Boeing's new plane. Exactly what kind of plane to develop next is not an easy decision. But a very interesting one.


An A220-500 X concept can make sense on the market if it doesn't cannibalize the A320neo. Regarding the A322 concept, it would be an eyesore. I prefer to see Airbus come with a larger fuselage CFRP like what Keesje showed here for example.

Image

I would see an Airbus philosophy "step-by-step" technology, and some possible innovations since the last 15 years with the A350-XWB.

CFRP wings and fuselage or any other advanced materials.
Electric taxiway?
Fly-by-light?
A350 cockpit

I don't like the A322 concept. It is a "lesser measure" that the passenger could have done without ...

I would be extremely disappointed if Airbus does nothing and relies on its past achievements :sigh:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:05 am

Funny that the generous MS-21 fuselage diameter seems to have set the standard.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:10 am

scbriml wrote:

It sounds as though the fire has been turned down to a simmer.


I cannot understand your pessimism

Anyway, a simmered dish is better than a burning fire :stirthepot:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:15 am

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It sounds as though the fire has been turned down to a simmer.


I cannot understand your pessimism


It’s realism, not pessimism. We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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moa999
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:01 am

scbriml wrote:
Plane development seems to be taking much longer than when engineers used slide rules and literal drawing boards.


Acceptance of losses is a lots less these days.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:57 am

keesje wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
keesje wrote:
If I was in charge at Boeing :covereyes: , I would go for 140-200 seat <3000NM segment.


Really?

The A220-100/300 range is 3,400 nmi / 3,350 nmi
The MAX-7/8/9/10 range is 3,850 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,550 nmi / 3,300 nmi
The A320/321/XLR range is 3,500 nmi / 4,000 nmi / 4,700 nmi
C919/ER range is 2,200 nmi / 3,000 nm

Why would you think that going back a generation to a shorter range (or commensurate with Chinese jet) would create a better selling jet for Boeing?


Because the bulk of flight is <1000NM and if you can offer something unbeatable for that demanding segment you make more money than with another A321. Unbeatable in efficiency, flexibility, production costs, global sourcing.

https://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z16 ... zation.jpg

Image


While the bulk of the flight are less than 1000nm. Airlines wants flexibility in their plane. When the range are too small or too big, they have no room to wiggle around.

Now narrow bodies these days are being used for longer and longer flights. What many airlines actually need are small planes that could fly as further and as efficient as possible.

After all, short flights means more cycles wasted for less profits. It would only age the plane out. The best solution to get the most out of your narrow bodies is to mix longer flights and shorter one in between. This way some planes wouldn't age out too quickly and you get the best bang for your money.

The trend is going in different direction. They want more ranger and higher mtow.

Also, on shorter flights, efficiency matter less compared to 6 hours flights. 1 hour flights doesn't really burned that much fuel. Airlines worry less about it on such routes. The advantages of fuel efficiency disappear on such missions.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:01 am

moa999 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Plane development seems to be taking much longer than when engineers used slide rules and literal drawing boards.


Acceptance of losses is a lots less these days.


Yes, but even allowing for tougher certification (minus the grandfathering aspects) it took 21st century Boeing nearly six years to basically re-engine the NG compared to three years to design and certify the original 737 from scratch.

It’s not a criticism, just an observation - each new generation has taken longer than the previous despite the improvements in computing power and tools.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:08 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It sounds as though the fire has been turned down to a simmer.


I cannot understand your pessimism


It’s realism, not pessimism. We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time.



You may be able to confuse the intentions of Boeing with the obstacles that Boeing has encountered. Those are two different things.

On the one hand the grounding of the 737MAX and on the other hand the launch of the A321neoXLR are factors to obstacle. For me it is only a matter of time. Obstacles do not contradict intentions.

I saw an article of which I am unable to find the source. Believe it or not, Calhoun also revealed that Boeing has spent $ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010, i.e. just before the decision to launch the 737 MAX. For me it really reveals that they were still at the beginning of an idea / a bias for a concept. You should know (I don't know about the others), I have neither shares at Boeing nor shares at Airbus. I have been a simple spectator and observer for almost 20 years... :roll:

What I think, IMHO, and I hope to be understood without any pretension. You should know that Boeing is no longer in a competitive situation and I realized this when the grounding of the 737MAX was decreed. There I realized by this grounding and quarterly results confirmed why Boeing was in the obligence to build the NMA in first, they realized it before but it was already too late.

In this game , Airbus was smarter than Boeing since the latter acquired the A220 program which allows Airbus to have security by producing 4 aircraft (A220, A320neo, A330neo, A350-XWB without saying that the A220 is a program that is worth the A320, but programs which know at the moment and as a whole, being ramped up. What Boeing has not had for a year and it may continue.

Boeing was the victim of its mistakes in not having replaced the 737 earlier, in having, rightly or wrongly, having stopped the 757 production. It's a lot to profit from an acquisition. This is why I think that Boeing will not launch a replacement for 737MAX in first and that it is obliged to launch the NMA by 2022, for 2028-2029 EIS and then a 737 replacement in a second time.

For me, there is no doubt that for Boeing, they must only use this behavior to remain competitive with Airbus today and tomorrow. And it seems indeed go towards this way there. It would be dangerous to launch a replacement for 737 rather than a complement under the pretext that aircraft and "new". Look at where Airbus is, despite the fact that they will stop producing the A380 in 2022. Today they are in a comfortable position.

Really I wish good luck for them because putting the 737MAX back into service will be difficult work and a point of no return, because their customers are also waiting and they cannot be wrong in having chosen the 737MAX rather than the A320neo

The market is huge out there and Airbus will NEVER be able to satisfy the market on its own and Boeing either. This is a major disaster for me which must ABSOLUTELY be remedied at all costs ASAP...

I hope you understand my point...
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Do it! "...
 
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keesje
Posts: 13965
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:39 am

Of course Airbus could do an NMA, they have resources, technology.
But I have heard/ seen no intentions in that direction.

Image

I guess most foresee new versions of existing aircraft. A220-500, A322NEO, A320Plus, A350ULR.

In the 2000-2015 period several moonshots were developed / put into production. A380, A400M, A350, A220 (CSeries). And there haven't been big cut back on R&D capability. based on recent history, without pointing at a specific segment, nothing new 2020-2030 seems unlikely. But Airbus biggest problem now is keeping up with demand. Even the A330 is experiencing a revival.

But we are drifting away. Boeing is on the line. The discussion is if Boeing problems exaggerated, or worse than we want to believe. Inbetween weasel words I see him launching a state of the art 737 Replacement. He might need serious partners for that at this stage. Serious = Raytheon Technologies, GE, NG, GenDyn, US and Brasilian governments, Chinese government bodies (they don't want MAX and have to spend $200B in the US by 2021).


Believe it or not, Calhoun also revealed that Boeing has spent $ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010, i.e. just before the decision to launch the 737 MAX. For me it really reveals that they were still at the beginning of an idea / a bias for a concept.

I don't belive that "$ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010."

because their customers are also waiting and they cannot be wrong in having chosen the 737MAX rather than the A320neo

You think so?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:58 am

The NMA debate is imho overblown. The A321 did not need the LR/XLR version to be a huge success, in fact it was the other way round. The success of the normal A321NEO made it interesting to use slightly modified versions for more flexibility, but both can still fly normal A321 missions with a very small penalty.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9386
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:27 am

MSPNWA wrote:
TObound wrote:
I am inclined to go with the most obvious strategy. They will bracket the 321. It's already shown there's a market. And the growth in most market show a need for a 200 seater. The ideal aircraft is something about the size of the MAX 9 with engines optimized for 2 hr flights. Then make the larger aircraft at or above the 322 in size. The LR and XLR are really distractions. They aren't a huge segment. It's the bulk of the 321NEO sales that Boeing needs to tackle. And that's the fat segment that will produce enough profits to pay for development.

Anything less than 200 seats has to be with Boeing Brasil.


IMO, that is the right move. Bracket the A321. Boeing already has the below covered competitively in the MAX8. What they don't have is something that can beat an A321. Also the market appears to be looking for is something a little bigger and certainly more capable than the A321LR/XLR, and that's the upper end of platform range. It's all about a platform now. Then in 20 or so years use the new technology platform for a smaller narrowbody to replace the MAX. I don't know if Calhoun is thinking that way with the NMA, but his hints don't exclude it.

Sadly, this as a narrowbody plane and I don't know if passengers will accept a long-haul narrowbody, but from a business perspective that's what I see.


One could die laughing. The MAX is an old obsolete frame, bought because Airbus would not be able to supply all needed narrow bodies.
The 737-8 is the one horse in the line up, that shows reasonable sales and those numbers do only look good, when one tries to isolate the A320 and compares it to the 737-8.
Than one either has to assume that all ordered MAX are 737-8 and has to completely disregard any 737-7, -9 -10 ordered, or if one assumes reasonable numbers for the other frames, the order book for the 737-8 also sucks compared to the Airbus frames.

the identified orders for the 737-8 are 3221 and 737-7 82, 737-9 474, 737-10 521 each. We can forget about the 737-7 in the same way we can leave out the A319neo.

There are 1409 unidentified orders. If those are all 737-8 than that bird looks good, if those are mainly the three other frames, the 737-8 does not match the A320neo, with currently 3896 orders.

So you have a choice, either the order book for the 737-9 and 737-10 sucks terrible (A321neo orders 3255 against 995 737-9 and -10) or the order book of the 737-8 is not that impressive.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:52 pm

This is exactly it what I mean!

It is simply awesome!
Quite frankly, it represents the future for me. A new type of small aircraft... :yes:

Image

I can see 1.200 airframes potential sales until 2040, shared with Boeing maybe?

Different scenarios, and flexibility use

American Airlines "transcon" 6 /hours mission
Lufthansa 8 hours / transatlantic mission
Chinese market / 1hour mission
They can't go wrong...

keesje wrote:
Of course Airbus could do an NMA, they have resources, technology.


Not only, they are also in comfort in their market positions. This is way too much of an asset to launch something that is not necessarily risky for them :yes:

keesje wrote:
But I have heard/ seen no intentions in that direction.

They should, frankly :thumbsup:

I hope they do it in at least two years.

keesje wrote:
I guess most foresee new versions of existing aircraft. A220-500...

:checkmark:

I have heard/ seen no intentions in that direction...

But, we know they should do it, right?

keesje wrote:
A322NEO, A320Plus,

I have heard/ seen no intentions in that direction and fortunately, especially for the A322neoX who is an ugliest 757 proxy concept

With the A320neo, and A321neo LR's derivative, Airbus is on top!

Climbing too high in the tree can cause a fatal fall. We've already seen this with Boeing, haven't we?


keesje wrote:
A350ULR.


:shakehead:
The A330s, 777's, 787's and A350 flooded the market. What does this A350ULR mean? We see the slowdown with production cut from the A330s, 777's and the 787 at a rate of 10 by a month announced...


keesje wrote:
But we are drifting away. Boeing is on the line. The discussion is if Boeing problems exaggerated, or worse than we want to believe. Inbetween weasel words I see him launching a state of the art 737 Replacement. He might need serious partners for that at this stage. Serious = Raytheon Technologies, GE, NG, GenDyn, US and Brasilian governments, Chinese government bodies (they don't want MAX and have to spend $200B in the US by 2021).


All your good arguments, cannot necessarily save Boeing from a lack of product.

Replacing 1: 1 with a new technology leaves a deficiency to be able to compete.

Remember my comment above when responding to Scbriml. It's a bullet in the foot, Keesje ...

keesje wrote:
You think so?


No matter. 737 MAX customers are waiting ...
Last edited by Checklist787 on Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:06 pm

seahawk wrote:
The NMA debate is imho overblown. The A321 did not need the LR/XLR version to be a huge success, in fact it was the other way round. The success of the normal A321NEO made it interesting to use slightly modified versions for more flexibility, but both can still fly normal A321 missions with a very small penalty.


I agree!

I don't know what this Airbus action represents :crazy:

Do you think that the A321NeoXLR could have slowed down the business case for the Boeing NMA beside that?
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:16 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
I saw an article of which I am unable to find the source. Believe it or not, Calhoun also revealed that Boeing has spent $ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010, i.e. just before the decision to launch the 737 MAX.


I don't know what you read, but I don't believe it because that number cannot be correct. :shakehead:

Boeing's total R&D expenditure in the years 2010-2019 inclusive was as follows (figures in $ billions):
    2010 - 4.1
    2011 - 3.9
    2012 - 3.3
    2013 - 3.0
    2014 - 3.0
    2015 - 3.3
    2016 - 4.6
    2017 - 3.1
    2018 - 3.3
    2019 - 3.2
Total = 34.8

These numbers are readily available online.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268 ... by-boeing/
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-01-29 ... er-Results

Aside from an uptick in 2016, since 2012 Boeing's R&D expenditure has been pretty static. Obviously in real terms, allowing for inflation, it represents a steady decline in R&D spending. To give it further perspective, in the last five years Boeing has spent twice as much on buying its own shares as it has on R&D. One thing Boeing clearly hasn't done is spend $60billion on R&D for a paper plane.

Checklist787 wrote:
This is why I think that Boeing will not launch a replacement for 737MAX in first and that it is obliged to launch the NMA by 2022, for 2028-2029 EIS and then a 737 replacement in a second time.


So we are in agreement that "We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
Unfortunately it'll be at least a year and more likely two before we learn if you are correct or not via Boeing gaining Ability to Offer such a product.


Revelation wrote:
I wonder how long it would take Boeing to come up with detailed enough FSA proposal to decide if it's a better than what they already know about NMA?


From concept to authority to offer usually takes 3 years.
Good moaning!
 
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Erebus
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
TObound wrote:
Because China is a big market for Boeing. This is one of many double-standards that pissed off Canadians and resulted in them rallying around Bombardier despite the company being seen as a local corporate welfare queen.

EU is a large customer for Boeing too, yet they've been chasing Airbus via the WTO for at least a decade now.


China's response would be very different to that of the EU.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:57 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I saw an article of which I am unable to find the source. Believe it or not, Calhoun also revealed that Boeing has spent $ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010, i.e. just before the decision to launch the 737 MAX.


I don't know what you read, but I don't believe it because that number cannot be correct. :shakehead:

Boeing's total R&D expenditure in the years 2010-2019 inclusive was as follows (figures in $ billions):
    2010 - 4.1
    2011 - 3.9
    2012 - 3.3
    2013 - 3.0
    2014 - 3.0
    2015 - 3.3
    2016 - 4.6
    2017 - 3.1
    2018 - 3.3
    2019 - 3.2
Total = 34.8

These numbers are readily available online.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268 ... by-boeing/
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-01-29 ... er-Results

Aside from an uptick in 2016, since 2012 Boeing's R&D expenditure has been pretty static. Obviously in real terms, allowing for inflation, it represents a steady decline in R&D spending. To give it further perspective, in the last five years Boeing has spent twice as much on buying its own shares as it has on R&D. One thing Boeing clearly hasn't done is spend $60billion on R&D for a paper plane.

Checklist787 wrote:
This is why I think that Boeing will not launch a replacement for 737MAX in first and that it is obliged to launch the NMA by 2022, for 2028-2029 EIS and then a 737 replacement in a second time.


So we are in agreement that "We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


Okay very well. Too bad for the source. Let's even admit that my source is fake and it is visibly, since you make a correction from a same Boeing source. Thank you for that. :thumbsup:

But wait a minute...

What are you basing yourself on to say this?

scbriml wrote:
"We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


I don't agree,
There is no evidence that Boieng will not launch something within two years.

I would even say faster than you think... :yes:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:00 pm

60 billion bugs for a concept? Not possible. Maybe some 60 million over the years.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:06 pm

Noshow wrote:
60 billion bugs for a concept? Not possible. Maybe some 60 million over the years.

No problem with that... :thumbsup:

I read this article before going to bed. definitely a mistake there-in

Sorry...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19126
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:18 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
There is no evidence that Boieng will not launch something within two years.


Double negative = there is evidence Boeing will launch within two years. What is the evidence?

You said possible EIS in 2028/29, I don’t consider that to be soon.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2743
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:27 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I saw an article of which I am unable to find the source. Believe it or not, Calhoun also revealed that Boeing has spent $ 60 billion on research and development for a 200-250 seater since 2010, i.e. just before the decision to launch the 737 MAX.


I don't know what you read, but I don't believe it because that number cannot be correct. :shakehead:

Boeing's total R&D expenditure in the years 2010-2019 inclusive was as follows (figures in $ billions):
    2010 - 4.1
    2011 - 3.9
    2012 - 3.3
    2013 - 3.0
    2014 - 3.0
    2015 - 3.3
    2016 - 4.6
    2017 - 3.1
    2018 - 3.3
    2019 - 3.2
Total = 34.8

These numbers are readily available online.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268 ... by-boeing/
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-01-29 ... er-Results

Aside from an uptick in 2016, since 2012 Boeing's R&D expenditure has been pretty static. Obviously in real terms, allowing for inflation, it represents a steady decline in R&D spending. To give it further perspective, in the last five years Boeing has spent twice as much on buying its own shares as it has on R&D. One thing Boeing clearly hasn't done is spend $60billion on R&D for a paper plane.

Checklist787 wrote:
This is why I think that Boeing will not launch a replacement for 737MAX in first and that it is obliged to launch the NMA by 2022, for 2028-2029 EIS and then a 737 replacement in a second time.


So we are in agreement that "We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


Okay very well. Too bad for the source. Let's even admit that my source is fake and it is visibly, since you make a correction from a same Boeing source. Thank you for that. :thumbsup:

But wait a minute...

What are you basing yourself on to say this?

scbriml wrote:
"We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


I don't agree,
There is no evidence that Boieng will not launch something within two years.

I would even say faster than you think... :yes:


I would guess it's sometime in 2021 once they get the MAX line up and running and have time to redefine NMA (A little longer than before to take into account a possible rewing A322 that wasn't really on the table in 2016/2017 and a lot more automated - possibly a lot more connected to the ground for emergencies or to allow the ground to take over).

They need this year to figure out what sensors, network abilities and computing power they need in the frame long term to do all this new automation/control systems and make sure the frame can accommodate it and how to price it for customers before ATO.

Given it will most likely be more complicated than an 787 Mini - it will take longer to develop - but not all capabilities may be available at launch - like Tesla.

If they stick with NMA Aero - that should be basically done - but add a few years for extra systems work - so call it entry into service 2028/2029. With of course a smaller winged/shorter tubed NSA version following in the early 2030's.
 
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Carlos01
Posts: 172
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:52 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
From concept to EIS can take 10 years. It's difficult to see FSA entering service before 2030 if Boeing starts from scratch.


I've said it before, but I'd be extremely disappointed with Boeing's BOD if they have not been working on the MAX replacement since March 2019. If they have any kind of organised risk management at all, the MAX is something that is (without any mitigation) way beyond anyone's risk appetite. At the same time the NMA's destiny must have been on the table already a few times.

Whatever the new bird will be labelled as, I'm expecting EIS is being planned by 2026 latest. If they make that date is another story of course, with variables like no tomorrow left and right.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:07 pm

morrisond wrote:

I would guess it's sometime in 2021 once they get the MAX line up and running and have time to redefine NMA (A little longer than before to take into account a possible rewing A322 that wasn't really on the table in 2016/2017 and a lot more automated - possibly a lot more connected to the ground for emergencies or to allow the ground to take over).

They need this year to figure out what sensors, network abilities and computing power they need in the frame long term to do all this new automation/control systems and make sure the frame can accommodate it and how to price it for customers before ATO.

Given it will most likely be more complicated than an 787 Mini - it will take longer to develop - but not all capabilities may be available at launch - like Tesla.

If they stick with NMA Aero - that should be basically done - but add a few years for extra systems work - so call it entry into service 2028/2029. With of course a smaller winged/shorter tubed NSA version following in the early 2030's.

:checkmark:

Launch in 2022 and EIS in 2029 makes sense!


Checklist787 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

I don't know what you read, but I don't believe it because that number cannot be correct. :shakehead:

Boeing's total R&D expenditure in the years 2010-2019 inclusive was as follows (figures in $ billions):
    2010 - 4.1
    2011 - 3.9
    2012 - 3.3
    2013 - 3.0
    2014 - 3.0
    2015 - 3.3
    2016 - 4.6
    2017 - 3.1
    2018 - 3.3
    2019 - 3.2
Total = 34.8

These numbers are readily available online.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268 ... by-boeing/
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-01-29 ... er-Results

Aside from an uptick in 2016, since 2012 Boeing's R&D expenditure has been pretty static. Obviously in real terms, allowing for inflation, it represents a steady decline in R&D spending. To give it further perspective, in the last five years Boeing has spent twice as much on buying its own shares as it has on R&D. One thing Boeing clearly hasn't done is spend $60billion on R&D for a paper plane.



So we are in agreement that "We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


Okay very well. Too bad for the source. Let's even admit that my source is fake and it is visibly, since you make a correction from a same Boeing source. Thank you for that. :thumbsup:

But wait a minute...

What are you basing yourself on to say this?

scbriml wrote:
"We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


I don't agree,
There is no evidence that Boieng will not launch something within two years.

I would even say faster than you think... :yes:




scbriml wrote:
Double negative = there is evidence Boeing will launch within two years. What is the evidence?

You said possible EIS in 2028/29, I don’t consider that to be soon.


1. Except that the office is still open ...
https://www.boeing.com/company/bios/mike-sinnett.page

2. A concept overhaul is fairly quick. Remember the A350MK1 launched the end of 2004 became quickly the A350-XWB after Steven Udvar Hazy's criticism
in 2006.

scbriml wrote:
"We’re not going to see an all-new Boeing for quite a long time."


3. Because your declared is quite exaggerated... :duck:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:30 pm

Carlos01 wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
From concept to EIS can take 10 years. It's difficult to see FSA entering service before 2030 if Boeing starts from scratch.


I've said it before, but I'd be extremely disappointed with Boeing's BOD if they have not been working on the MAX replacement since March 2019. If they have any kind of organised risk management at all, the MAX is something that is (without any mitigation) way beyond anyone's risk appetite. At the same time the NMA's destiny must have been on the table already a few times.

Whatever the new bird will be labelled as, I'm expecting EIS is being planned by 2026 latest. If they make that date is another story of course, with variables like no tomorrow left and right.



You make a mistake this quote is not mine. Sorry :duck:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
TObound
Posts: 781
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:33 pm

It's stupid to launch something and EIS it so late. They'd want to ATO a maximum of 7 years before EIS. Ideally, that should be closer to 5-6 years. They'd be better off spending the next 2 years doing some solid definition work, ATO in mid 2022, official launch in 2023 and then EIS in 2027/2028, just as the current 737 MAX backlog is running down.
 
2175301
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:25 pm

I had an "interesting" discussion with my friend who is associated with the NMA project. They rarely ever tell me anything specific. Most discussions are about theoretical approaches that things that have been studied. This discussion had a few specifics:
1) That they believe that they have the right sized aircraft and the right shape (for which a lot of engineering has been done). They indicated that their was a close 2nd in aircraft size/shape that would likely be looked at again in the "redesign."

2) That they believe they have the right technologies and manufacturing process to build a competitive aircraft except for a very recent change.

3) That the 737Max issue, studies, current and projected regulator response, and likely future pilot interface and response standards makes it unlikely that even the most up to date Boeing cockpit design (787/777) will be certifiable in a new designed from scratch aircraft.

Thus the NMA in whatever form will have to have a completely new generation of cockpit and control concepts. That is what is driving the "nominally": start from scratch statements. In reality, it most likely will be how to modify the best 2 aircraft designs that came out of the previous work to see how you would implement various possible new cockpit and control possibilities.

Their personal opinion is that at least 80% of all the previous R&D done on the NMA will be applicable to the newer version; however, the detailed engineering for what was the current size aircraft may not be useful if the decission is to pursue the other aircraft size/shape.

They do not see at this time any other radical new concepts in aircraft design other than cockpit and control concepts, and how they are implemented. Discussions are to limit the "moonshots" to one area, and to prove (and work out the bugs) in the manufacturing advances

Have a great day,
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9386
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:02 pm

Boeing still deciding which market segment its next aircraft should target

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 38.article

So the decision what type of frame the next clean sheet at Boeing will be, is up for discussion at Boeing.
 
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Revelation
Topic Author
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:06 pm

2175301 wrote:
I had an "interesting" discussion with my friend who is associated with the NMA project. They rarely ever tell me anything specific. Most discussions are about theoretical approaches that things that have been studied. This discussion had a few specifics:
1) That they believe that they have the right sized aircraft and the right shape (for which a lot of engineering has been done). They indicated that their was a close 2nd in aircraft size/shape that would likely be looked at again in the "redesign."

2) That they believe they have the right technologies and manufacturing process to build a competitive aircraft except for a very recent change.

3) That the 737Max issue, studies, current and projected regulator response, and likely future pilot interface and response standards makes it unlikely that even the most up to date Boeing cockpit design (787/777) will be certifiable in a new designed from scratch aircraft.

Thus the NMA in whatever form will have to have a completely new generation of cockpit and control concepts. That is what is driving the "nominally": start from scratch statements. In reality, it most likely will be how to modify the best 2 aircraft designs that came out of the previous work to see how you would implement various possible new cockpit and control possibilities.


Their personal opinion is that at least 80% of all the previous R&D done on the NMA will be applicable to the newer version; however, the detailed engineering for what was the current size aircraft may not be useful if the decission is to pursue the other aircraft size/shape.

They do not see at this time any other radical new concepts in aircraft design other than cockpit and control concepts, and how they are implemented. Discussions are to limit the "moonshots" to one area, and to prove (and work out the bugs) in the manufacturing advances

Have a great day,

Fascinating post, especially the part I highlighted.

It seems that we now know what the long pole in the tent will be, figuring out what the regulator will require from a next gen cockpit then designing and implementing such.

I hate to say but getting clarity on the requirements given that the regulators probably feel they can ask for the stars and the moon can be a huge challenge. A thousand experts, ten thousand opinions. So hard to get people to focus on what can be done with current tech in a workable time frame.

Team A is really lucky that they will probably be able to "grandfather" their current cockpit tech for a long time to come while Boeing has to go through the battle of specifying, designing, implementing, testing and certifying the next gen stuff.

My guess is the "best choice" is the 7W ovioid we know as NMA, and the "second best choice" is the 6W tube taking them from 737-8 size through 757-300 size we know of as FSA. I'm sure there's a sizeable contingent that sees that as the best way forward.

Given that the cockpit stuff is now the long pole, they have a lot of time to sort out the size and shape arguments.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:06 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Boeing still deciding which market segment its next aircraft should target

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 38.article

So the decision what type of frame the next clean sheet at Boeing will be, is up for discussion at Boeing.


That essentially matches the information my friend provided. That Boeing would be looking at the top 2 aircraft size/shapes that came from the NMA studies. I think its a fair assumption that those different sizes and shapes targeted somewhat different market segments.

Have a great day,
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:29 pm

Revelation wrote:

"Deleted for Readability: See Above"

Team A is really lucky that they will probably be able to "grandfather" their current cockpit tech for a long time to come while Boeing has to go through the battle of specifying, designing, implementing, testing and certifying the next gen stuff.


Actually, Bombardier may have already done that with what is now the A220 cockpit. In my opinion, Boeing likely could use something very similar and the regulators would likely allow that (at least in the near term).

I find it more interesting that Boeing is talking about potential longer term issues and seems to be hinting at more advanced concepts. We will have to see... how far they wish to push it. Also, what kinds of backups are needed if the main flight computers appear to be malfunctioning, and how they are activated (red switch under a protective cover?). My personal opinion is that as long as you are going there: A capability for remote takeover of the aircraft if allowed by inflight personnel (or perhaps not prevented by inflight personnel with a series of alarms on the control panel at the start of the process and adequate time to prevent the remote takeover), at least future provisions for single pilot operation.

Another possible option that is at this stage plausible is Boeing to perhaps buy Rockwell Collins to be able to use their technology and control & license it in ways they would potentially like too.

This will be interesting to watch,

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:41 pm

2175301 wrote:
Actually, Bombardier may have already done that with what is now the A220 cockpit. In my opinion, Boeing likely could use something very similar and the regulators would likely allow that (at least in the near term).

It would be a blessing if buying or cloning the Collins content would be acceptable. The thing is the regolators don't often think in terms of near term solutions, they want to be forward thinking. It's not often that clean sheets come along, and in this particular case Boeing is in a position where it needs to be compliant.

2175301 wrote:
I find it more interesting that Boeing is talking about potential longer term issues and seems to be hinting at more advanced concepts. We will have to see... how far they wish to push it. Also, what kinds of backups are needed if the main flight computers appear to be malfunctioning, and how they are activated (red switch under a protective cover?). My personal opinion is that as long as you are going there: A capability for remote takeover of the aircraft if allowed by inflight personnel (or perhaps not prevented by inflight personnel with a series of alarms on the control panel at the start of the process and adequate time to prevent the remote takeover), at least future provisions for single pilot operation.

Another possible option that is at this stage plausible is Boeing to perhaps buy Rockwell Collins to be able to use their technology and control & license it in ways they would potentially like too.

Yes, it's hard to see how they won't be considering at least how to enable allow remote contol in a future product. Also, it's hard to see how they won't be doing something different in terms of the business model and revenue capture. This opportunity to make large scale changes only comes along once a generation.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:07 pm

Recalling, Boeing did offer a 767-100 with about 180 seats. There were no takers.

I am really feeling a logically laid out, light, and not over-winged, 2x2x2, 1x3x2

737-800, 757, or 737-900 replacement might hit that 160-180 seat sweet spot Boeing was hoping for with the “way out of its element,” original 767-100 proposal.

Key is to keep it light and offer STRETCHABILITY and the ability to accommodate larger and larger big fan engines, without having to resort to Connie or TU-114 style landing gear.

I WONDER how Boeing might do that though?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:11 pm

Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:21 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
I am really feeling a logically laid out, light, and not over-winged, 2x2x2, 1x3x2


KlimaBXsst wrote:


Key is to keep it light


KlimaBXsst wrote:

I WONDER how Boeing might do that though?


Turbo encabulators :wink:

Fred


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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
It's interesting how personal Calhoun makes it. He personally wants to learn more, he personally wants a specification he believes in.

IMO it's a good thing he wants personal involvement. DM didn't seem to need or want this kind of hands on involvement.

...confirmation that he was asleep in the board meetings or just not paying attention?

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