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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:21 am

Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not isolating the A321NeoXLR, I was just saying that it filled a niche market. And that the 737MAX-10 is a chick that has the future ahead of it.


The A321XLR is even more of a “chick” than the 737-10. :lol:
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:43 am

Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:49 am

seahawk wrote:
Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.


Has anyone got an idea how much the NMA would cost to produce and how much it will sell for?
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:25 am

TObound wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Looking down the line a bit - with the focus on environment only growing ever sharper - if people are not willing to sacrifice the convenience of flights, they may be much more amenable to accepting increased delivery times.

i.e. air cargo could become a somewhat endangered species in a decade or two.

Relatively easy target for the politicians.


Or there's more pressure to get rid of cargo operators and move it all to belly freight.....


Yeah, that's possible.

I'd just thought it would have meant greater focus on ultra-efficient cargo operations, but that wouldn't exclude going all belly ops if you get great load factors from pax+cargo - and the delay is waiting for flights that have low enough pax counts for the belly cargo to fit.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:48 am

TObound wrote:
Really looks like the customers that want the NMA aren't so much interested in a MOM airplane as they are a discount widebody. DL and QF want a 767 replacement and aren't willing to pony up for a 788.


Delta, Qantas, Asian carrier, and probably others to come, want a 20-year technological Gap over the most technologically advanced 787/A350 widebodies, and a 50-year technological Gap over the 767 by 2030...

TObound wrote:
Is selling discount widebodies a great strategy for Boeing?


No matter,
In 2018, just before the 737MAX debacle, Boeing made a RECORD of $ 1 billion in profit.

TObound wrote:
The NMA looks more like a 787 gross margin compression tool


Not only that, it is also a 20-year technological Gap over the most technologically advanced 787/A350 widebodies.
The market will undoubtedly need a real game changer by 2030 ...

TObound wrote:
than an A321XLR killer

A market niche killer for what?

TObound wrote:
I suspect this is why "the business case is hard to close". They know this thing might hurt them just as much as it does Airbus.


If Airbus was no less hurt than Boeing, they probably would not have launched the market niche A321neoXLR derivative,
just to grab (only) not even double digit % more share against the NMA.

Boeing is in hurt you say?
Airbus had afraid of something?

TObound wrote:
I also suspect that a lot of their claims on operating costs are based on the 275 seat airplane. The gap is probably narrower between the 225 seat version and the the XLR.

Good suspicion,
But again, the A321Neo XLR is a niche market.
It represents ONLY 8-10% of A321neo sales

TObound wrote:
And that means a narrower business case with new type, new pilot pool, etc. Also, marginally less risky to fill 170-200 seats year round than 225.


Excepted that there is a lake of pilots
for now and the futur...

The NMA size will be the solution for years to come

https://wjla.com/amp/features/examining ... t-shortage
Last edited by Checklist787 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:06 am, edited 10 times in total.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:49 am

WIederling wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Like you said, operating a A321 or 787 on a route that is best served by NMA is a compromise, you are either flying a plane that is leaving payload behind or one that costs too much to operate for the available payload.


up front:
Remember the the topography of elemental stable islands in the periodic table?
https://phys.org/news/2009-09-superheav ... ility.html


First order that is true. Have the right sized ( capacity, range ) plane available for each task.
As a shape that would be a flat table surface Optimax at all points.

intermission1:
for cross section efficiency we have a sharp optimum at 3+3 and
then a softer one around various two aisle arrangements from 8 to 10 across
beyond 10 a double deck solution seems to show an even softer efficiency bulge.

intermission2:
efficiencies of scale intrinsicially provide more range for larger airframes.
better engines lighter materials change the slope but not the mechanism.

Now you have to fold that with actual design efficiencies for each solving domain.
We have a strong optimax for 3+3 seating in the 160 to 240 pax domain for ranges 2000 to 4000 nm
We have a lesser optimum for 2+3 or 2+2 in the domain below 160 seats and lower range.
(see size scaling )

The task set is to design an intermediary cross section that reaches or tops the "stable islands"
left and right of the MOM abyss. I haven't seen a useful solution yet.
all offers invariably depend on exclusive use of better materials for this MOM design
( and some mental curlicues to have it appear as a "quantum leap" solution.)
In reality the same materials are available for all domains.
What brings the MOM design into the region of current offers left and right will
move those up well beyond what the MOM design with the same improvements is capable of.

to close: MOM is the aircraft equivalent to something like the uncanny valley in robotics.


Great post, exactly what I was alluding too but much more eloquently put. It could be argued that a new aircraft will be more efficient for each individual route but it is the multitude of routes and the development costs that must also be taken into account.

Checklist787 wrote:
No doubt the NMA will be a game changer for the market.
No doubt? I think you'll find there is a lot of doubt, the fact that none is coming from yourself says more about you than the market methinks.

Checklist787 wrote:
Good post and good (only) theory ...

No, not only theory, the empirical evidence of the reduction in numbers of types required to serve the entire market would show the theory to be sound. I would say it is not a theory as described in common parlance but really a theory as described in scientific parlance.
At the end of the 90s Boeing had the 737, 757, 767, 777, 747 in pax production, Today they realistically have the 737, 787 and 777, the 747 dropped off the top and the 757 and 767 dropped out of the middle
In the 90s Airbus had the A32X, the A300, A310, A330, A340, today the reality is that its the A380 came and went and the middle of the market has dropped away.

Fred
Image
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:16 am

WIederling wrote:


Checklist787 wrote:
Good post and good (only) theory ...

No, not only theory, the empirical evidence of the reduction in numbers of types required to serve the entire market would show the theory to be sound. I would say it is not a theory as described in common parlance but really a theory as described in scientific parlance.
At the end of the 90s Boeing had the 737, 757, 767, 777, 747 in pax production, Today they realistically have the 737, 787 and 777, the 747 dropped off the top and the 757 and 767 dropped out of the middle
In the 90s Airbus had the A32X, the A300, A310, A330, A340, today the reality is that its the A380 came and went and the middle of the market has dropped away.

Fred


I just understand that we have to replace a lot of 767s and A330s by 2030 whith the twin aisle NMA... :checkmark:
Last edited by Checklist787 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:36 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Do it! "...
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:24 am

Amiga500 wrote:
TObound wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Looking down the line a bit - with the focus on environment only growing ever sharper - if people are not willing to sacrifice the convenience of flights, they may be much more amenable to accepting increased delivery times.

i.e. air cargo could become a somewhat endangered species in a decade or two.

Relatively easy target for the politicians.


Or there's more pressure to get rid of cargo operators and move it all to belly freight.....


Yeah, that's possible.

I'd just thought it would have meant greater focus on ultra-efficient cargo operations, but that wouldn't exclude going all belly ops if you get great load factors from pax+cargo - and the delay is waiting for flights that have low enough pax counts for the belly cargo to fit.


The pax network is much larger and more frequent than the cargo network. In theory, it makes much more sense to move cargo with belly freight than dedicated freighters. And if we're talking emissions this is doubly true since a lot of freighters are older or converted models.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 am

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not isolating the A321NeoXLR, I was just saying that it filled a niche market. And that the 737MAX-10 is a chick that has the future ahead of it.


The A321XLR is even more of a “chick” than the 737-10. :lol:


In +60 years of production, the 737 has never transported 2-class 210 passengers.

This is a first, thanks to the 737MAX-10 which has been launched for almost 2 years.
It's a chick while the A321neo has been doing it for a long time. :yes:

Now, the 737MAX-10 is a competitive little chick for a whole generation ...
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TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:55 am

Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:


Checklist787 wrote:
Good post and good (only) theory ...

No, not only theory, the empirical evidence of the reduction in numbers of types required to serve the entire market would show the theory to be sound. I would say it is not a theory as described in common parlance but really a theory as described in scientific parlance.
At the end of the 90s Boeing had the 737, 757, 767, 777, 747 in pax production, Today they realistically have the 737, 787 and 777, the 747 dropped off the top and the 757 and 767 dropped out of the middle
In the 90s Airbus had the A32X, the A300, A310, A330, A340, today the reality is that its the A380 came and went and the middle of the market has dropped away.

Fred


I just understand that we have to replace a lot of 767s and A330s by 2030 ... :checkmark:


Doesn't mean they have to be replaced with an aircraft of the same size. What is it about fungibility that so many on a.net don't get?

If my carrier needs to offer 1200 seats a week to a given destination, they can offer 4x 339/789/359 per week. Or send a 170 seat narrowbody daily. If there's less than 1200 seats per week, the math gets even worse. In the past, those routes would just not be served. Or those passengers would be forced through a hub. Now they can be served directly and frequently.

Heck, airlines know yield goes up for more frequent routes. This is why you see airlines replacing 747s and now 380s with 787s and 350s. So why bother with 767 size when the carrier can send a daily MAX or NEO and simply swap or add a 339/789 when necessary? What's the absolute necessity to have the 767 size covered?

This reminds me of Airbus fans beings so sure that the A380 would work because growing traffic meant that size had to be covered. Didn't work out for Airbus.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:57 am

Checklist787 wrote:
Now, the 737MAX-10 is a competitive little chick for a whole generation ...

chubby little breathy chick. :-)
MAX-10 probably will have about the same+ OEW an A321 sports.
But A321 has quite a bit higher MTOW for more capacity and/or range.
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:08 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Boeing is in hurt you say?
Airbus had afraid of something?

But again, the A321Neo XLR is a niche market.
It represents ONLY 8-10% of A321neo sales


Boeing ( the US overall ) tends to be bad at losing.
They really start to turn mean and unfair.
( funny that every time
Boeing has problems sh*t is turned up for Airbus
or GE issues start a hazing for RR :-)


I am no longer certain the LR and especially the XLR are or will stay niche.
XLR sold 450 frames in 2 Quarters. ( Though the LR could be viewed as a transient product.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:17 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:


Checklist787 wrote:
Good post and good (only) theory ...

No, not only theory, the empirical evidence of the reduction in numbers of types required to serve the entire market would show the theory to be sound. I would say it is not a theory as described in common parlance but really a theory as described in scientific parlance.
At the end of the 90s Boeing had the 737, 757, 767, 777, 747 in pax production, Today they realistically have the 737, 787 and 777, the 747 dropped off the top and the 757 and 767 dropped out of the middle
In the 90s Airbus had the A32X, the A300, A310, A330, A340, today the reality is that its the A380 came and went and the middle of the market has dropped away.

Fred


I just understand that we have to replace a lot of 767s and A330s by 2030 whith the twin aisle NMA... :checkmark:


Image

when you said 2030 did you mean 2020?

there are currently less than 750 767 in service, ~460 of which carry passengers.
If those ~750 are all the newest ones then that would suggest the oldest are from 1992 and the number coming to their 30th birthdays soon will get huge. I'm afraid that ship ready Is about to leave port and wont be waiting.
Business case not closing...

Fred
Image
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
I'm not isolating the A321NeoXLR, I was just saying that it filled a niche market. And that the 737MAX-10 is a chick that has the future ahead of it.


The A321XLR is even more of a “chick” than the 737-10. :lol:


Indeed.
A "chick" that also "has a future ahead of it".
A chick that operates in a niche market
A chick that operates in a niche market that the 737 can't play in
A chick in a niche market that secured more orders in its first 6 months than the 737-10 did
A chick that plays in NMA space, but doesn't have to stand on its own two feet in NMA space.
Instead it stands on the shoulders of the most successful airliner programme of the 21st century..

I'm pretty sure that last point is the one that will receive the most focus as Boeing craft their strategy in NMA space.

Rgds
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:36 pm

Checklist787 wrote:

Good suspicion,
But again, the A321Neo XLR is a niche market.
It represents ONLY 8-10% of A321neo sales


???
Don't understand this.
450 out of 3,200 sales is 14% of total A321NEO sales
The A321XLR has only been on sale for 6 months. The A321NEO has been on sale for 110 months.
So even that 14% is hardly representative
In the 6 months it has been on sale it has accounted for 80% of A321 NEO sales (450 out of 570)
I don't think that's representative either - it's more a symptom of latent demand being satisfied IMO.

I suspect it would be too easy to underestimate the way that the A321XLR has disrupted the market so much for so little effort...

Rgds
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:52 pm

WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Now, the 737MAX-10 is a competitive little chick for a whole generation ...

chubby little breathy chick. :-)
MAX-10 probably will have about the same+ OEW an A321 sports.
But A321 has quite a bit higher MTOW for more capacity and/or range.


Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...
Last edited by Checklist787 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Do it! "...
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:52 pm

I think US transcon is the poster case to look at showing the change that happened when the NB aircraft got enough range to fly it. Only a hand full of WB transcons is left. Frequency on the other hand is up.
The same will happen on TATL over the next years. 757s get replaced by A321 and operators that never used the 757 are now using A321 (eq. TAP). So NMA will be a large NB, very efficient, cheap to produce, easy to fly and most importantly with common type rating with other NBs. It will not be a loss maker to fly 500-1000nm routes between 4000-5000nm routes unlike a WB.

Airbus will naturally move into this space: Rewinging the A320 family to upgrade the A321 and have the A322 doing TATL as well. Boeing has to launch NMA into this space or will lose massively just due to the enormous economy of scale Airbus will have in the product range from 180-270 pax with the A32X family in the future. Naturally Airbus will tend towards 100 per month of A32X towards the end of the century.

Boeing can go there as well by scrapping the double aisle NMA and offer it as an single aisle NMA with the same capacity as the A32X family. There is enough market for two similar aircraft families. That is shown since 1990 and will continue.

It is a risk free approach to allow maximum profit and dividends. Every company that has share holders and has the goal of maximum profit would make this decision. Low risk high reward.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:01 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...

It is if it comes at no extra cost to performance for the lower missions and allows a single family airline to compete in more markets or allows an airline consisting of multiple families to reduce complexity and maintain its network.

Fred
Image
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:06 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Now, the 737MAX-10 is a competitive little chick for a whole generation ...

chubby little breathy chick. :-)
MAX-10 probably will have about the same+ OEW an A321 sports.
But A321 has quite a bit higher MTOW for more capacity and/or range.


Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...


expanded envelope.
For the shortish hops you have full payload available further out.
The penalty is in OEW. MTOW is "ceiling".
You can use any TOW below MTOW.
unused MTOW increases runway performance mightily.
unused MTOW decreases block fuel.
unused MTOW decreases engine MX and airframe aging.
...
....
Murphy is an optimist
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:08 pm

astuteman wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Good suspicion,
But again, the A321Neo XLR is a niche market.
It represents ONLY 8-10% of A321neo sales


???
Don't understand this.
450 out of 3,200 sales is 14% of total A321NEO sales
The A321XLR has only been on sale for 6 months. The A321NEO has been on sale for 110 months.
So even that 14% is hardly representative
In the 6 months it has been on sale it has accounted for 80% of A321 NEO sales (450 out of 570)
I don't think that's representative either - it's more a symptom of latent demand being satisfied IMO.

I suspect it would be too easy to underestimate the way that the A321XLR has disrupted the market so much for so little effort...

Rgds


Disrupted the market? Lol!

I wonder then what is the 550 737MAX-10 ordered?
An earthquake? A Tsunami?

Be serious the XLR is a niche market, it has benefited from a launch effect.

The A321neo (nonLR / XLR derivative) and the 737MAX-10 target the market better.

Now Boeing will know how to get established with something better for the market with the new NMA caracteristics
Last edited by Checklist787 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:11 pm

WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
chubby little breathy chick. :-)
MAX-10 probably will have about the same+ OEW an A321 sports.
But A321 has quite a bit higher MTOW for more capacity and/or range.


Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...


expanded envelope.
For the shortish hops you have full payload available further out.
The penalty is in OEW. MTOW is "ceiling".
You can use any TOW below MTOW.
unused MTOW increases runway performance mightily.
unused MTOW decreases block fuel.
unused MTOW decreases engine MX and airframe aging.
...
....


Oh I imagine that the NMA will also have a higher MTOW, right?...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:19 pm

WIederling wrote:
unused MTOW decreases engine MX and airframe aging.
...
....


That is a really good point.

Given Engines are becoming Highly stressed Hot rods that may have a real benefit in practice.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:20 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...

It is if it comes at no extra cost to performance for the lower missions and allows a single family airline to compete in more markets or allows an airline consisting of multiple families to reduce complexity and maintain its network.

Fred


We agree that this is the majority of flights.
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:23 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Oh I imagine that the NMA will also have a higher MTOW, right?...


Dead weight relation to MTOW is also of interest.
i.e OEW fraction of MTOW.

IMU the NEO engine pushed the A321 into the market Boeing had
reserved for themselves and their MOM, "our homestead where no airframes has gone before".
This caused rethinking. (A)
Airbus added the LR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused rethinking. (B)
Airbus added the XLR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused a major rethink. (C) result: trash the plans, begin from new.

Somewhen between A and B Boeing flinched and the -10MAX was born
and with the -10MAX Boeing started to cut their own MOMi flesh
to persist against Airbus in the short term. ( an echo of the born from NEO MAX move?)
Murphy is an optimist
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:29 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...

It is if it comes at no extra cost to performance for the lower missions and allows a single family airline to compete in more markets or allows an airline consisting of multiple families to reduce complexity and maintain its network.

Fred


We agree that this is the majority of flights.


Absolutely, the fact that the XLR is a relative niche should tell you all you need to know about the merits of the development of a dedicated clean sheet type to target this market.

Fred
Image
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:32 pm

WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Oh I imagine that the NMA will also have a higher MTOW, right?...


Dead weight relation to MTOW is also of interest.
i.e OEW fraction of MTOW.

IMU the NEO engine pushed the A321 into the market Boeing had
reserved for themselves and their MOM, "our homestead where no airframes has gone before".
This caused rethinking. (A)
Airbus added the LR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused rethinking. (B)
Airbus added the XLR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused a major rethink. (C) result: trash the plans, begin from new.

Somewhen between A and B Boeing flinched and the -10MAX was born
and with the -10MAX Boeing started to cut their own MOMi flesh
to persist against Airbus in the short term. ( an echo of the born from NEO MAX move?)


There is nothing in my knowledge that Boeing could not launch a 737MAX10-ER very soon ...

What is feasible for one, is for the other do not forget...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:40 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Now, the 737MAX-10 is a competitive little chick for a whole generation ...

chubby little breathy chick. :-)
MAX-10 probably will have about the same+ OEW an A321 sports.
But A321 has quite a bit higher MTOW for more capacity and/or range.


Higher MTOW is not an argument for 1-3h/3.5 h (majority) mission...


On short flight, fuel efficiency matter less and less.
A321XLR would have tiny fuel penalty BUT, it would provided flexibility in which airlines could optimized the plane to more routes.

The XLR would be mainly used on longer routes or to carry heavier cargo on shorter routes.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:41 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
It is if it comes at no extra cost to performance for the lower missions and allows a single family airline to compete in more markets or allows an airline consisting of multiple families to reduce complexity and maintain its network.

Fred


We agree that this is the majority of flights.


Absolutely, the fact that the XLR is a relative niche should tell you all you need to know about the merits of the development of a dedicated clean sheet type to target this market.

Fred

Precisely, this is what Boeing wants to do with the NMA-6, more passenger,
higher MTOW, more comfort below the market and the NMA-7 covering a new GAP.
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Do it! "...
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:43 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
Oh I imagine that the NMA will also have a higher MTOW, right?...


Dead weight relation to MTOW is also of interest.
i.e OEW fraction of MTOW.

IMU the NEO engine pushed the A321 into the market Boeing had
reserved for themselves and their MOM, "our homestead where no airframes has gone before".
This caused rethinking. (A)
Airbus added the LR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused rethinking. (B)
Airbus added the XLR which expanded the preempted envelope.
This caused a major rethink. (C) result: trash the plans, begin from new.

Somewhen between A and B Boeing flinched and the -10MAX was born
and with the -10MAX Boeing started to cut their own MOMi flesh
to persist against Airbus in the short term. ( an echo of the born from NEO MAX move?)


There is nothing in my knowledge that Boeing could not launch a 737MAX10-ER very soon ...

What is feasible for one, is for the other do not forget...


When Boeing launch MAX10-ER. Airbus could launch A322 or A321SEXYLR. What is imaginable for one, is for the other to dream. Do not forget.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:55 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
There is nothing in my knowledge that Boeing could not launch a 737MAX10-ER very soon ...

What is feasible for one, is for the other do not forget...



if you want to stay realistic that is not available for Boeing and their 737 platform.
If it were in the 737 genes the -10MAX already would have gone (further) in that direction.
See,
the -10MAX already has the 9MAX that is based on the 900ER as foundation.
Murphy is an optimist
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:20 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

We agree that this is the majority of flights.


Absolutely, the fact that the XLR is a relative niche should tell you all you need to know about the merits of the development of a dedicated clean sheet type to target this market.

Fred

Precisely, this is what Boeing wants to do with the NMA-6, more passenger,
higher MTOW, more comfort below the market and the NMA-7 covering a new GAP.

By NMA-6 are you referring to a new 6 abreast narrow body?
By NMA-7 are you referring to a new, fundamentally heavier per passenger, 7 abreast widebody?

An over extended 6 abreast narrow body that could for the cross sectional basis for the FSA has significantly lower investment than an entirely new cross section. This is why planes get extended. The NMA would be to the FSA what the 757 was to the 737.

Fred
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:58 pm

astuteman wrote:
A chick that plays in NMA space, but doesn't have to stand on its own two feet in NMA space.
Instead it stands on the shoulders of the most successful airliner programme of the 21st century..

I'm pretty sure that last point is the one that will receive the most focus as Boeing craft their strategy in NMA space.

Yes, Boeing needs to re-establish MAX to regain confidence from customers and partners and re-establish a working relationship with the world's regulators. This to me means MAX will need 3-5 years to show if it can or cannot regain its footing so I doubt a NSA will be launched that overlaps its market space in the near future. Also the A321 success argues for bracketing the product with something above (NMA) and something below (NSA). Yet NMA is still a tenuous proposition in terms of business case. It may or may not happen.

I suspect what is happening is along the lines that our poster's friend suggested: the 7W oval concept is still alive, the 6W second choice is being dusted off and re-evaluated, and the eventual outcome is still unknown. A main focus in the near term is understanding what regulators will accept in terms of a new cockpit, with the understanding that it must have features that go beyond the 787/777x cockpit. This work won't really derail the other studies needed to firm up the concept, but clearly it must be resolved before the product goes beyond the concept phase.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:51 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well they certainly did believe in the twin-aisle, but airlines appear to have not shared that belief.
.

Could it be that they did not believe that Boeing could deliver the price and operational cost that they touted with a small wide body?
I am inclined to believe that the bean counters at Boeing do not believe their engineers either, so starting all over again.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:56 pm

par13del wrote:
Could it be that they did not believe that Boeing could deliver the price and operational cost that they touted with a small wide body?


Possibly. Or they believed they could, but possibly years after Boeing said they could deliver it due to past experience with the 787 and 737MAX whereas with the A321XLR they know when they can get those.
 
AirbusA6
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:06 pm

seahawk wrote:
Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.


Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics?
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
flipdewaf
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Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:19 pm

My model suggests that a 6w 55m long jet with 165m^2 41m span wing will weigh ~62t and with 250 pax will do 4000nm from a 110tMTOW, I think there’s a good chance you could push to a big tyre and not have to go for a 4wheel bogie at that. A smaller version at 47m long will come in at about 58t and do ~4900nm with 200 pax. Both into 20kt headwind at M0.8. My numbers have it with a 0.095 t/c wing. I would think that can probably go to 0.1 and stick with M0.8 with good aero and save a bit of weight. With the 41m span you’d get enough performance out of 35-36klb engines.

Fred


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JayinKitsap
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Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:18 pm

Well Airbus will rule with the A322 A323 and A225. No other manufacturer has the resources to approach this.

Getting a new clean sheet certified has become nearly impossible, look at MRJ with the Spacejet, it has had delays approaching a decade.

However, the Chinese can produce a new plane for their market, I am sure it will sell well there.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:26 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
My model suggests that a 6w 55m long jet with 165m^2 41m span wing will weigh ~62t and with 250 pax will do 4000nm from a 110tMTOW, I think there’s a good chance you could push to a big tyre and not have to go for a 4wheel bogie at that.


How practical is a narrowbody longer than 50m on groundhandling? Might have issues fitting in gates.

flipdewaf wrote:
A smaller version at 47m long will come in at about 58t and do ~4900nm with 200 pax. Both into 20kt headwind at M0.8. My numbers have it with a 0.095 t/c wing. I would think that can probably go to 0.1 and stick with M0.8 with good aero and save a bit of weight. With the 41m span you’d get enough performance out of 35-36klb engines.

Fred


That is really not all that impressive then. A 321XLR can take 200 pax to 4700nm nominally with a cruise of M0.78. And the carrier doesn't need a different pilot and maintenance pool. If Airbus decided to rewing and re-engine the aircraft, they could probably get more those 200 pax to 5000nm at a slightly higher speed. A higher Mach number isn't that much relevant operationally. Every M0.01 adds about 8 mins of flying time to a trip of 4700NM. Unless the speed savings come at very low cost (highly unlikely), the value in going up to say M0.84 isn't there.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:27 pm

AirbusA6 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.


Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics?

How that?
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:38 pm

Probably because the any 7W will actually be designed to cram 8W and will consequently be flown 8W by airlines. Add slimline seating and there you go; Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics.
 
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Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:42 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
AirbusA6 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.


Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics?

How that?

Because at a given technology level physics dictates that in a pressure dominated structure the required thickness of material will increase linearly with diameter, the weight will increase at the square of the diameter and therefore for a constant floor area the increase will be linear with the diameter.

So if a widebody is to have a metric of weight per passenger (weight being a significant driver for operating cost) on a similar level to a narrow body then one would expect the unit area per seat to be lower.

Make sense?

Fred


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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:50 pm

TObound wrote:
How practical is a narrowbody longer than 50m on groundhandling? Might have issues fitting in gates.


I think it should be doable. The real benefit will be if they can keep the span to 36m with wingtips folded (and 40-41m with wingtips extended).

TObound wrote:
If Airbus decided to rewing and re-engine the aircraft, they could probably get more those 200 pax to 5000nm at a slightly higher speed.


While there has been a focus by some on how new certification rules could/will impact Boeing, they would also impact Airbus. So it may not be so "simple" to re-wing / re-engine / re-stretch the A321 should that become necessary.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:03 pm

Stitch wrote:
TObound wrote:
If Airbus decided to rewing and re-engine the aircraft, they could probably get more those 200 pax to 5000nm at a slightly higher speed.


While there has been a focus by some on how new certification rules could/will impact Boeing, they would also impact Airbus. So it may not be so "simple" to re-wing / re-engine / re-stretch the A321 should that become necessary.


I've been thinking about this. I think the simple path if this is what Airbus ends up facing is building a new frankenstein type. Cockpit from A350 or A220. Tail and fuse from 320 program. New landing gear, wings and engines. Sure certification takes longer. But the supply chain and manufacturing processes don't change much, keeping development costs relatively low.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:32 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
B764er wrote:
What happened with the 787-3?



The 787-3 was designed specifically for the Japanese market, it would have carried 290–330 passengers in two-class over 2,500–3,050 nmi range, limited by a (165 tonnes ) MTOW. In contrast the 787-8 has a MTOW of 228 tonnes. Basically the -3 was much larger than the nominal specifications for the NMA, and also more limited in range.


And keep in mind it was mostly a paper de-rate, with the only obvious physical difference being winglets instead of raked tips (for shorter span) so it would still be carrying around the physical capacity of a 787-8, but the lower (paper) MTOW would save on landing fees. So a lot of unnecessary structure. I guess the Japanese carriers decided that it made more sense to just fly 787-8s on domestic routes, eat the landing costs, and retain the flexibility to be able to rotate those frames through long-haul routes.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:38 pm

744SPX wrote:
Probably because the any 7W will actually be designed to cram 8W and will consequently be flown 8W by airlines. Add slimline seating and there you go; Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics.


Not necessarily, the question is:
Is it better to have an

18.5 " width seat @ 30" pitch? (7-ab.)

17 " witdh seat @ 32" pitch? (8-ab.)

Personally I prefer the second solution (8-abreast) not necessarly discomfort

It densifies the cabin and gives an additional 2 " pitch.

This can be ideal for flights from 1h to 6h. mission...

Regds
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:51 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
744SPX wrote:
Probably because the any 7W will actually be designed to cram 8W and will consequently be flown 8W by airlines. Add slimline seating and there you go; Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics.


Not necessarily, the question is:
Is it better to have an

18.5 " width seat @ 30" pitch? (7-ab.)

17 " witdh seat @ 32" pitch? (8-ab.)

Personally I prefer the second solution (8-abreast) not necessarly discomfort

It densifies the cabin and gives an additional 2 " pitch.

This can be ideal for flights from 1h to 6h. mission...

Regds


What airline today gives you 32" in economy on their new or retrofitted airplanes today? The likely outcome is 17" wide seat and 30" pitch. 31" pitch if it's a generous carrier. 17" wide seats and 30" pitch is happening often enough, that the aviation press is starting to call it out:

https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2015/01/2 ... -on-a-787/
Last edited by TObound on Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:58 pm

TObound wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
744SPX wrote:
Probably because the any 7W will actually be designed to cram 8W and will consequently be flown 8W by airlines. Add slimline seating and there you go; Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics.


Not necessarily, the question is:
Is it better to have an

18.5 " width seat @ 30" pitch? (7-ab.)

17 " witdh seat @ 32" pitch? (8-ab.)

Personally I prefer the second solution (8-abreast) not necessarly discomfort

It densifies the cabin and gives an additional 2 " pitch.

This can be ideal for flights from 1h to 6h. mission...

Regds


What airline today gives you 32" in economy on their new or retrofitted airplanes today? The likely outcome is 17" wide seat and 30" pitch. 31" pitch if it's a generous carrier.

Exactly. Just like the 7ab becomes 8ab (or 8 to 9 on A330, 9 to 10 on 777), 32" pitch becomes 30" on the next interior redo...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:01 pm

TObound wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
744SPX wrote:
Probably because the any 7W will actually be designed to cram 8W and will consequently be flown 8W by airlines. Add slimline seating and there you go; Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics.


Not necessarily, the question is:
Is it better to have an

18.5 " width seat @ 30" pitch? (7-ab.)

17 " witdh seat @ 32" pitch? (8-ab.)

Personally I prefer the second solution (8-abreast) not necessarly discomfort

It densifies the cabin and gives an additional 2 " pitch.

This can be ideal for flights from 1h to 6h. mission...

Regds


What airline today gives you 32" in economy on their new or retrofitted airplanes today? The likely outcome is 17" wide seat and 30" pitch. 31" pitch if it's a generous carrier.


What do you mean ?

Are you telling us that this is not possible à 32 "pitch?

Shall we still enter into an endless debate?

A lot of airlines are at 32" pitch...
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Do it! "...
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:05 pm

https://www.airfarewatchdog.com/blog/44 ... the-least/ gives an interesting run down of US airlines.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:06 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
TObound wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Not necessarily, the question is:
Is it better to have an

18.5 " width seat @ 30" pitch? (7-ab.)

17 " witdh seat @ 32" pitch? (8-ab.)

Personally I prefer the second solution (8-abreast) not necessarly discomfort

It densifies the cabin and gives an additional 2 " pitch.

This can be ideal for flights from 1h to 6h. mission...

Regds


What airline today gives you 32" in economy on their new or retrofitted airplanes today? The likely outcome is 17" wide seat and 30" pitch. 31" pitch if it's a generous carrier.

Exactly. Just like the 7ab becomes 8ab (or 8 to 9 on A330, 9 to 10 on 777), 32" pitch becomes 30" on the next interior redo...


They don't wait for the redo anymore. They just launch with less pitch. Air Canada launched the MAX 8 and 223 with 30" pitch in Y.

I learned my lesson watching AC here in Canada. Their 777s went from 3-3-3 to 3-4-3. And at the same time they made that change, they introduced the Premium Economy section and reduced pitch in Y from 32" to 31" on most rows (there's rows with less). Their Dreamliner simply launched with 3-3-3 and the lower pitch in Y to begin with. After that experience, I have zero excitement at the thought of flying a Boeing product. Unfortunately for us Canadians, our two major airlines are both MAX operators.

Given that AC will also be flying the CSeries/A220, I look forward to them starting to get a earful from their regular/high value customers. Nothing will drive home the point of how much 17" seats suck like transferring between a 223 and MAX. The contrast will be particularly hilarious when they transfer from a 220 to a 787 or 777 and note that the widebody is somehow less comfortable.

30" pitch is all but standard now domestically in many parts of the world. 31" if particularly generous. This is why width is so damn valuable. It's something airlines can't really mess with unless they want to redefine their business model into ULCCs.

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