Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1804
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:24 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Carlos01 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

You'd hope so since the A321 presently has a wing from the 80's. This astonishing fact reveals that that if Airbus decides to rewing the A320 series it will have Boeing on the ropes.


I really hope Airbus will do just that. At the same time I hope that Boeing will get extra-lot of bashing from all directions. Only then would Boeing realize that they actually have to do something disruptive, nothing lukewarm will save them. Boeing has the capability to do that, if they just choose to get serious. That would mean a really awesome new product family - which in turn would force Airbus to respond with something equally awesome.

The current somewhat stable duopoly is killing innovation, just like monopoly. The airlines are happy with 5-10% better economy - so the manufacturers don't need to do anything more than that.


Unless this hope is not justified. Currently the 737MAX has a smaller, lighter wing than the A320neo.

With the MAX10 from below and the NMA-6 and NMA-7 the A321neo will be contained. Boeing is very serious about this.
This is why, he is certainly preparing something very soon ...

Don't you think the reality is more something like: with the A321neo (all variants) and 737 MAX 9 & MAX 10 from below, and the A330neo and potentially a Next Gen 767 from above, the yet-to-be-revealed NMA is contained???
See, I even included Boeing's own product, cause you can't ignore them.

Plain and simple: the NMA market is not there, too small and/or already covered by existing products. That's why the business case was never closed, the aircraft never offered for sale (despite years of "it's about to happen") and that Boeing themselves (you know, the ones who actually know what the NMA is supposed to be and which market it's supposed to fill) is saying they're going back to the drawing board.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10350
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:24 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
This only worked back then because Boeing was able to deliver the same capability and capacity with twin jets compared to the tri-jets and quads they replaced.

The MoM as all here state does not really exist or not in the voluminous form everyone claims it does. The 757 is already replaced: A321neo and A321XLR take on this role. The 767 does not leave a big enough gap to be replaced with a new designed aircraft. The 757 got replaced by an continuously increased performance of the A321 and every replacement of the 767 reduces the sales of the 787 and this is just not great for the business of Boeing especially as there are still deferred production costs to "pay" off. If the 787 would be from the early 90s, then replacing its lower end sales with a new small twin aisle would be a nobrainer but in the current time the 787 needs every sale possible and a product that reduces the sale potential of the 787 would lead to a massive reduction in profits and no share holder would want this and neither does the board of Boeing.

Where exactly does the A321XXXX fit in Boeing's product lineup?
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:26 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The 767 being in such high demand is proof that the market for a small widebody is actually very high.

so is it demand for a widebody?

or
RJMAZ wrote:
Despite this we have 30 year old 767's flying around because they are the smallest aircraft that can fly 5000nm.

Demand for the smallest 5000nm jet?

You should at least know what you think first.

because the XLR is currently 300nm off your magic 5000nm figure and I would wager that its a better investment to make a longer ranged version with a new wing than a whole new widebody program pulling sales away from the 787 market...

Just replace the word widebody (or twin aisle) with twin deck and replace 5000nm with 7000nm and suddenly we are talking about he 787 and the A380 and we all know how that pans out...

Fred
Image
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 724
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:34 pm

par13del wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
This only worked back then because Boeing was able to deliver the same capability and capacity with twin jets compared to the tri-jets and quads they replaced.

The MoM as all here state does not really exist or not in the voluminous form everyone claims it does. The 757 is already replaced: A321neo and A321XLR take on this role. The 767 does not leave a big enough gap to be replaced with a new designed aircraft. The 757 got replaced by an continuously increased performance of the A321 and every replacement of the 767 reduces the sales of the 787 and this is just not great for the business of Boeing especially as there are still deferred production costs to "pay" off. If the 787 would be from the early 90s, then replacing its lower end sales with a new small twin aisle would be a nobrainer but in the current time the 787 needs every sale possible and a product that reduces the sale potential of the 787 would lead to a massive reduction in profits and no share holder would want this and neither does the board of Boeing.

Where exactly does the A321XXXX fit in Boeing's product lineup?


Excuse me? I do not understand your question.

I just layed out why a modern 757/767 combo does not work anymore as the 757 market is gone to Airbus right now. You might need to include all quotes to make it understandable.

All Boeing can effectively do right now is launch a new aircraft into the market that combines the 737 and 757. The 767 market is not economically exploitable for Boeing right now due to the 787.

So the actual exploitable MoM gap lies solely in in the product lineup of Boeing as they can not offer a long range narrow body aircraft with enough passenger capability. Airbus can. Both can offer a wide body good enough and selling good enough to not launch a product that reduces profitability of said frames.

Boeing launching a small cheap wide body? 787 and A330 taking a massive hit. From Boeings perspective this is setting your house on fire (787) to kill a spider (A330).

Same would go if Airbus launches one. So conclusion? No small wide body will be launched before 2026+ (when the 787 and A330neo will need a replacement/enhancement).

Boeing launching a capable narrow body? Good choice, as this will hurt Airbus way more than Boeing as the MAX is not capable enough in half of the NB market, as seen in the sales numbers of the A321 vs the Max-10.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10350
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:46 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Boeing launching a small cheap wide body? 787 and A330 taking a massive hit. From Boeings perspective this is setting your house on fire (787) to kill a spider (A330).
.

If you think the gap in Boeing's line up is about killing the A330.......
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 724
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:54 pm

par13del wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Boeing launching a small cheap wide body? 787 and A330 taking a massive hit. From Boeings perspective this is setting your house on fire (787) to kill a spider (A330).
.

If you think the gap in Boeing's line up is about killing the A330.......


Definitely not to kill the 787...

look the rate is already going down to 10 per month. They hope to raise it again to 12 from 2023 on, so Boeing will not launch anything that remotely could take away sales from the 787 for a good amount of time. Right now for everything bigger than an A321 the 787 is the go to aircraft. If this is advantage is gone so will be the business case for the 787, because at a rate of 5-7 it will not have a cost advantage over the A330 especially with the deferred production cost eating the profits.

If this is the case Boeing will have very low to no profits on the 737 due to compensations (discounts eating the profitability), low to no profits on the 787s, a 777X program that is not really taking off and massive R&D to spend on a new fancy small wide body.

If you wanna ruin your share value, that is the way to go.

From my point of view Boeing will play safe and that means doing nothing for the next 5 years and then launching a new narrow body, followed by a small wide body as soon as the 787NG has secured enough orders. This is a safe strategy to maximize profits and Boeing will in my opinion go that way.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1804
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:06 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
par13del wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Boeing launching a small cheap wide body? 787 and A330 taking a massive hit. From Boeings perspective this is setting your house on fire (787) to kill a spider (A330).
.

If you think the gap in Boeing's line up is about killing the A330.......


Definitely not to kill the 787...

look the rate is already going down to 10 per month. They hope to raise it again to 12 from 2023 on, so Boeing will not launch anything that remotely could take away sales from the 787 for a good amount of time. Right now for everything bigger than an A321 the 787 is the go to aircraft. If this is advantage is gone so will be the business case for the 787, because at a rate of 5-7 it will not have a cost advantage over the A330 especially with the deferred production cost eating the profits.

If this is the case Boeing will have very low to no profits on the 737 due to compensations (discounts eating the profitability), low to no profits on the 787s, a 777X program that is not really taking off and massive R&D to spend on a new fancy small wide body.

If you wanna ruin your share value, that is the way to go.

From my point of view Boeing will play safe and that means doing nothing for the next 5 years and then launching a new narrow body, followed by a small wide body as soon as the 787NG has secured enough orders. This is a safe strategy to maximize profits and Boeing will in my opinion go that way.

I think you've summarized Boeing's motto (and source of problems) quite right: don't do anything that would ruin your share value (i.e. "it's better for the short term") even if it means losing that edge for the long term.
 
AirbusA6
Posts: 1655
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:53 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:11 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
AirbusA6 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Even Boeing stopped talking about widebody comfort at narrowbody economics. So I would not bet on that to happen.


Widebody discomfort at narrowbody economics?

How that?


I was being slightly sarcastic, but the reality of flying nowadays is that the newer narrowbodies have more seat width and/or a wider aisle than Boeing's widebodies,whether a 9Y 787 or especially a 10Y 77W.

No way is being crammed in the latter an obvious step up from an E-jet, A220 or A320. Indeed the Russian MC-21 is wider still, its fuselage a full 11 inches wider than the 737's.
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9674
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:23 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The 767 being in such high demand is proof that the market for a small widebody is actually very high. If they had more they would be flying them.

The 767 has one of the worst fuel burn per seat of every aircraft in service. Despite this we have 30 year old 767's flying around because they are the smallest aircraft that can fly 5000nm. For Pacific rim and deep transatlantic flights to thin destinations they work well.

If the 767 was up to date and in production with CASM that was slightly close to the 787 or A330NEO it wouod be selling 100+ a year easily.

I still think the small widebody 797 is coming. It will be half way between the A321 and 787 in cabin area, range, CASM and purchase price.


High demand for 767s in pax configuration? Where?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 724
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:28 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
par13del wrote:
If you think the gap in Boeing's line up is about killing the A330.......


Definitely not to kill the 787...

look the rate is already going down to 10 per month. They hope to raise it again to 12 from 2023 on, so Boeing will not launch anything that remotely could take away sales from the 787 for a good amount of time. Right now for everything bigger than an A321 the 787 is the go to aircraft. If this is advantage is gone so will be the business case for the 787, because at a rate of 5-7 it will not have a cost advantage over the A330 especially with the deferred production cost eating the profits.

If this is the case Boeing will have very low to no profits on the 737 due to compensations (discounts eating the profitability), low to no profits on the 787s, a 777X program that is not really taking off and massive R&D to spend on a new fancy small wide body.

If you wanna ruin your share value, that is the way to go.

From my point of view Boeing will play safe and that means doing nothing for the next 5 years and then launching a new narrow body, followed by a small wide body as soon as the 787NG has secured enough orders. This is a safe strategy to maximize profits and Boeing will in my opinion go that way.

I think you've summarized Boeing's motto (and source of problems) quite right: don't do anything that would ruin your share value (i.e. "it's better for the short term") even if it means losing that edge for the long term.


Ballsy would be to launch a new narrow body in the next two years on the back of a strong 787 line. I would hope they would do this but chances are slim. Launching a new wide body heavily weakening the only profitable line (787) would be stupid. It could have been done with a strong 737 line but that ship has sailed and the current damage control with massive discounts on future MAX deliveries can not support R&D costs while profits of the 787 line fall away.
 
DenverTed
Posts: 489
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:08 pm

flipdewaf"
[quote="Checklist787 wrote:
and the NMA-6 and NMA-7

What are the NMA-6 and NMA-7, I had asked this upthread and got no response, my take on this is that it is like the god of maximal capability.

Fred[/quote]
NMA-6 and 7 or 7K7-6 and 7 or 6x and 7x were the reported designations for the roughly 225 and 270 seat versions. I think it was Jon Ostrower who reported this.

-6 as a nod to 6x 2-2-2 seating, of course :)
 
DenverTed
Posts: 489
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:19 pm

Strato2 wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
Can Boeing design a more capable, lighter wing than the A321 without resorting to folding wingtips? A wing that fits in a 36m gate and lifts 110 to 120t? If it is CFRP, has slightly more area than the A321, split winglets, and 40K GTF engines, perhaps that is another option for a future aircraft.


You'd hope so since the A321 presently has a wing from the 80's. This astonishing fact reveals that that if Airbus decides to rewing the A320 series it will have Boeing on the ropes.

Airbus can rewing and longer gear the A322/3 for maybe 15 billion, and Boeing can build that same plane for 30 billion. Boeing will have to make a better fuselage than the A322 to make it worth it (wider aisle? cooler lighting?).
On the other hand, however the 777x is put through the wringer, Airbus can expect just as much scrutiny on their rewing.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7152
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:46 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 767 being in such high demand is proof that the market for a small widebody is actually very high.

so is it demand for a widebody?

Fred


That quote made me smile too.
The 767 being in such high demand is proof that it is ideal as a freighter for 5X and FX, is it not?
Nothing to do with the market for NMA as such.
I wonder when the last 767 passenger sale/delivery was?

rgds
 
DenverTed
Posts: 489
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:48 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
Can Boeing design a more capable, lighter wing than the A321 without resorting to folding wingtips? A wing that fits in a 36m gate and lifts 110 to 120t? If it is CFRP, has slightly more area than the A321, split winglets, and 40K GTF engines, perhaps that is another option for a future aircraft.


What's wrong with folding wingtips? It's rather ingenious in my opinion. You ger optimal performance in the air while taking up less of a footprint on the ground.



It is only a bit more expensive and heavier than a wingtip device. Two gear motors and replacing bolts with hinge and locking pins. A huge performance gain, I think we will see on most clean sheets in the future.

After watching the first flight of the 777-9, folding wingtips look like the obvious and inevitable solution for the next wing, barring any unforeseen technical difficulties.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24599
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:05 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
I just layed out why a modern 757/767 combo does not work anymore as the 757 market is gone to Airbus right now. You might need to include all quotes to make it understandable.

All Boeing can effectively do right now is launch a new aircraft into the market that combines the 737 and 757. The 767 market is not economically exploitable for Boeing right now due to the 787.

So the actual exploitable MoM gap lies solely in in the product lineup of Boeing as they can not offer a long range narrow body aircraft with enough passenger capability. Airbus can. Both can offer a wide body good enough and selling good enough to not launch a product that reduces profitability of said frames.

Boeing launching a small cheap wide body? 787 and A330 taking a massive hit. From Boeings perspective this is setting your house on fire (787) to kill a spider (A330).

Same would go if Airbus launches one. So conclusion? No small wide body will be launched before 2026+ (when the 787 and A330neo will need a replacement/enhancement).

Boeing launching a capable narrow body? Good choice, as this will hurt Airbus way more than Boeing as the MAX is not capable enough in half of the NB market, as seen in the sales numbers of the A321 vs the Max-10.

757 market won't support a clean sheet since as you say Airbus already owns that market.

737 market won't support a clean sheet since Boeing has no other choice but to capture whatever revenue it can from MAX. Announcing a new NSA will turn the large MAX backlog into dust and will anger customers, partners, and financiers.

787 market weakness shows it needs competition not protection. 788 is not a good option for 767 replacement. UA and DL executives have said as much. LH CEO has said A321XLR lacks comfort for his target audience. There are customers who would be interested in NMA. Unfortunately for Boeing its hands are tied right now. We probably won't know what is next for quite a while.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
PepeTheFrog
Posts: 397
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:44 pm

This guy thinks Boeing needs a new airplane fast or it might be heading towards 30% market share:

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/05/consu ... -airplane/

Boeing is headed for a 30% market share unless it invests in a new airplane, and soon.

This is what aviation consultant Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group predicted today at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA).


The same guy also noted that Boeing's new airplane should be narrowbody, because the operating costs are so much lower than a widebody:

Aboulafia noted the A321neo and long-range LR/XLR versions are killing the MAX 8/10. What Boeing needs, he said, is a single-aisle airplane that he described as similar in size to the Boeing 757-200/300 but with a 5,000nm range.

He called this an A321 killer.

Aboulafia does not support development of an NMA, citing operating costs that are higher than today’s single-aisle airplanes.


Yet the business case will be difficult too, because the boys and girls in Toulouse might slap new wings and engines on the A321:

But he acknowledged Airbus could respond with another A321 version that has a new carbon wing, more powerful engines and more seats. This airplane, commonly called the A322, could be developed for one-third the cost and sold for millions less.


Challenging times ahead for Boeing.
Good moaning!
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24599
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:53 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Yet the business case will be difficult too, because the boys and girls in Toulouse might slap new wings and engines on the A321:

But he acknowledged Airbus could respond with another A321 version that has a new carbon wing, more powerful engines and more seats. This airplane, commonly called the A322, could be developed for one-third the cost and sold for millions less.


Challenging times ahead for Boeing.

I don't think there is any "might" to it, it is inevitable.

Thus if you are going to do a NMA it needs to be better than the A322 concept everyone has been bouncing around.

Given you can't match Airbus's price you have to offer more on the payload/range/comfort side.

If you can't deliver better payload/range/comfort at a comparable price as A322 you are better off waiting for the next generation tech even if this leads to 30% market share.

The idea is to make profit not control market share.

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Challenging times ahead for Boeing.

Indeed. They are reaping what they sowed via the 787 and 737 FUBARs.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1905
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:17 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Well you seem to ignore that in marketing, when you create a product, you create a demand.

No doubt Boeing knows where to go with the NMA!

Historically, they have always evaluated the market differently than Airbus.

Forcast 2000-2019 period,
1,400 A380s between 2000 and 2019,
never happened.


see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Little_Fable


If you are going to use numbers to try and reinforce your point of view, it helps to use the correct numbers when you use them. The Airbus market forecast for VLA in 2000 wasn't for 1400 A380's but 1235 aircraft at more than 400 seats. Not even Airbus was arrogant to think they will capture all of the market either. So 0/2 on your numbers there. You can always point out it doesn't matter, the market didn't exist for the A380 at all so even 1235 aircraft was wildly optimistic in the category, and you would have a strong argument.

The other part Airbus got wrong as well was the total deliveries for the time period. They estimated 15 364 aircraft in total and Boeing and Airbus alone delivered 20 428 during that time. Make of that what you will.
 
Schmave
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:30 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:52 pm

After more reading and some more thought, I am coming to the conclusion that it is inevitable that Boeing's next aircraft will be a new narrow body design. The core of the market is a 6-abreast single, which is square in their area of competency (MAX screw-ups not withstanding). As others have said, a twin-aisle wide body would potentially cannibalize 787 sales, which they cannot afford to do right now.

Looking at their product offerings, the 787 is a great smallish wide body. The 777X will be their large aircraft for the foreseeable future. Their main deficiency is in the A321 size, and airlines have been on the trend of up-gauging their narrow bodies recently. So their next design should be at the top end (size wise) of what can be done with a single aisle aircraft.

They still need to get the MAX flying and burn through much of the backlog before they will be able to launch something that will cannibalize the MAX, though. So I don't think they will launch an aircraft like this until at least the middle of the decade. It will have to have at least a 10% efficiency improvement over the MAX/neo. I don't know if they would want to try to optimize for USA coast to coast ranges (or west coast to Hawaii), and no more, but this might be the best way to improve efficiency. Most NB flights are well under 5 hours, so maybe airlines would be willing to trade range for efficiency.

This assumes they wouldn't do anything more exotic than a tube and wing design (e.g., BWB). Maybe they use their truss-based wing concept for this? The design will have to push some technology limits at this point. The irony is that, for the amount of $$$ the MAX fiasco is costing Boeing, they could have already come up with a new NB design. They also need to start spending more on R&D and less on share buy backs.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4322
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:26 pm

ailerons, flaps, slats, spoilers, and combos are all movable devices on a modern wing, why are there still people who think a folding wingtip is daring or bleeding edge?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
TObound
Posts: 783
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:33 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
This guy thinks Boeing needs a new airplane fast or it might be heading towards 30% market share:

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/05/consu ... -airplane/

Boeing is headed for a 30% market share unless it invests in a new airplane, and soon.

This is what aviation consultant Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group predicted today at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA).


The same guy also noted that Boeing's new airplane should be narrowbody, because the operating costs are so much lower than a widebody:

Aboulafia noted the A321neo and long-range LR/XLR versions are killing the MAX 8/10. What Boeing needs, he said, is a single-aisle airplane that he described as similar in size to the Boeing 757-200/300 but with a 5,000nm range.

He called this an A321 killer.

Aboulafia does not support development of an NMA, citing operating costs that are higher than today’s single-aisle airplanes.


Yet the business case will be difficult too, because the boys and girls in Toulouse might slap new wings and engines on the A321:

But he acknowledged Airbus could respond with another A321 version that has a new carbon wing, more powerful engines and more seats. This airplane, commonly called the A322, could be developed for one-third the cost and sold for millions less.


Challenging times ahead for Boeing.


Aboulafia is a bit of an Airbus fan. But in this case, I think he's right. It's always been amazing to me that that there's a 2 year gap in backlog between the NEO and MAX. Customers are willing to fly CEOs and NGs for 2 more years to get a NEO, rather than buy the MAX. That says a lot.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 30% marketshare. Current production rates imply something like a 55/45 split. If Airbus pulls the trigger on a rewing and can boost production rates substantially, I can see something like a 60/40 split. If a rewinged and stretched 320N family comes with a 225, I can easily see narrowbody market share at 65/35. And there's no way, Airbus just attacks the MAX and/or the NMA at the upper end. The logical move is Boeing does anything is to also launch a 225 and eat a good chunk of the MAX 8's market from below. Airbus is quietly putting all the pieces in place for such a pincer move. PIPs on the 220. Modified wings, RCT, etc on the 321N/XLR. Most importantly heavy work to optimize and boost production on both 220 and 320N. In about 3 years, they'll be ready to pull the trigger anytime they want and be able to deliver those new models within about 3 years. The longer that Boeing is pre-occupied with the MAX and is simply unwilling to reinvest in its product line and production facilities, the greater Airbus advantage.
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 629
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:38 pm

Apologies if this has been discussed, but I would agree that the market for anything above 220ish seats is already covered by the 787 and 777. What is missing in Boeing's future catalogue, at least in the U.S., is new narrowbody series below 200 seats. This would be a future replacement for the MAX and also to compete against the A321 which will be aging by the time this new jet would be ready Should be 3 models to cover capacity ranges of 120-145, 145-170, and 170-195.

The reality is indeed that the A321 has beat Boeing to the punch of a 757 replacement, something that a short sighted product development team should have had ready by now to compete. But that does not mean that they should concede that market to Airbus in the future. Indeed it means this is probably the most pressing need as Airbus will soon be dominating the market even more in the 190-220 capacity with long legs segment.
 
744SPX
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:48 pm

If Boeing was to go the Truss Braced Wing route they won't need more efficient engines than what's currently available to make the aircraft 12-15% better than the neo.
 
744SPX
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:20 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:49 pm

...and there would be room for even larger bypass ratios/open rotor down the line
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19175
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:05 pm

TObound wrote:
Aboulafia is a bit of an Airbus fan.


I’m giving to guess you haven’t been here very long? :rotfl:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7152
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:28 pm

TObound wrote:
Aboulafia is a bit of an Airbus fan. .


In all the 15 years I've been a member of A-net, I never ever figured on reading this line on this forum.
As Scrimbl says, it's clear you haven't been a regular on here over the last 10-15 years...
I'm blown away. :faint: :D

Rgds
 
TObound
Posts: 783
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:48 am

We talk a lot about potential market for these airplanes. But I've not seen analysis on how range and payload might play out in the real world and how the LR/XLR compares with the 752. This article is absolutely brilliant for that:

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/

It's a necessary reminder of just what a fantastic challenge Boeing faces from the XLR. Everyone needs to read it.
 
TObound
Posts: 783
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:49 am

scbriml wrote:
TObound wrote:
Aboulafia is a bit of an Airbus fan.


I’m giving to guess you haven’t been here very long? :rotfl:


Oops. Fingers ahead of brain on this one.....
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27230
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:30 am

astuteman wrote:
I wonder when the last 767 passenger sale/delivery was?


2012-2013 was the last tranche, in general, with one last one for Air Astana in 2014. The common refrain was the majority of them were compensation for 787 delays.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7152
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:34 am

Stitch wrote:
astuteman wrote:
I wonder when the last 767 passenger sale/delivery was?


2012-2013 was the last tranche, in general, with one last one for Air Astana in 2014. The common refrain was the majority of them were compensation for 787 delays.


Thanks. I wonder when they were ordered.

Rgds
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 868
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:42 am

Lockheed had a unique 3-2-3 seating design “option” for the Tristar.

3-2-3 with some sort of staggered seating could offer a solution to prolong the 767 which works extremely well as a freighter too.

I wish I had an illustration of this. Boeing surely has some options here.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:20 am

TObound wrote:
We talk a lot about potential market for these airplanes. But I've not seen analysis on how range and payload might play out in the real world and how the LR/XLR compares with the 752. This article is absolutely brilliant for that:

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/

It's a necessary reminder of just what a fantastic challenge Boeing faces from the XLR. Everyone needs to read it.

Who writes that blog? I’m 90% sure they are on a.net.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Image
 
ewt340
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: New middle of the market widebody.

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:45 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
The business case for a widebody MOM aircraft just isn't there. A new clean sheet narrowbody will always be more efficient.


The only widebody MoM I see is the extension of popular existing widebody that offer commonality with other model. Otherwise it wouldn't work.

As for Narrowbody MoM. It would be Moderately successful. But it wouldn't be as successful as normal narrow bodies.
 
User avatar
PepeTheFrog
Posts: 397
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:24 am

TObound wrote:
It's always been amazing to me that that there's a 2 year gap in backlog between the NEO and MAX. Customers are willing to fly CEOs and NGs for 2 more years to get a NEO, rather than buy the MAX. That says a lot.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 30% marketshare. Current production rates imply something like a 55/45 split.


Due to the MAX grounding and slow production ramp up once the jet is recertified, the gap will become 3 to 4 years. According to the slide at https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 8485532672 Boeing won't hit rate 60 before 2023.
Good moaning!
 
TObound
Posts: 783
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:33 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
TObound wrote:
It's always been amazing to me that that there's a 2 year gap in backlog between the NEO and MAX. Customers are willing to fly CEOs and NGs for 2 more years to get a NEO, rather than buy the MAX. That says a lot.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 30% marketshare. Current production rates imply something like a 55/45 split.


Due to the MAX grounding and slow production ramp up once the jet is recertified, the gap will become 3 to 4 years. According to the slide at https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 8485532672 Boeing won't hit rate 60 before 2023.


The gap gets smaller. Not bigger. Airbus will have chewed through a years worth of backlog while Boeing was trying to get the Max back in service and catching up. Boeing also has several hundred frames sitting in the desert waiting to be delivered. By my very rough math, the difference in backlog, all things considered is about 20 months.
 
TObound
Posts: 783
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:36 am

flipdewaf wrote:
TObound wrote:
We talk a lot about potential market for these airplanes. But I've not seen analysis on how range and payload might play out in the real world and how the LR/XLR compares with the 752. This article is absolutely brilliant for that:

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/

It's a necessary reminder of just what a fantastic challenge Boeing faces from the XLR. Everyone needs to read it.

Who writes that blog? I’m 90% sure they are on a.net.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Probably. It's amazing analysis. At least a bit closer to how network planners are looking at these aircraft. You start to see how underestimated the XLR is. And how much of a challenge Boeing faces. Especially if they want to sell a small and cheap widebody as the NMA.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 24599
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:57 am

TObound wrote:
Probably. It's amazing analysis. At least a bit closer to how network planners are looking at these aircraft. You start to see how underestimated the XLR is. And how much of a challenge Boeing faces. Especially if they want to sell a small and cheap widebody as the NMA.

It's not amazing that 757's sun is setting and a plane two generations newer than it can give it a run for its money.

To apply the same critical standards as routinely gets applied to Boeing here, we can validly criticize Airbus for not spending the time to do a RCT till now and being late to the game with winglets.

Lord knows we had enough threads here about A32x not being able to do US transcons against winter winds.

Maybe it'd be more topical to see what challenges XLR faces from NMA?

Image

Ref: https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... decessors/
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
Maybe it'd be more topical to see what challenges XLR faces from NMA?


None.

Because NMA doesn't even exist yet... in Boeing's collective head, never mind in a DMU!


By the time Boeing actually have something ready for revenue service, it'll be ~2030 at least 2030.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:05 pm

TObound wrote:
We talk a lot about potential market for these airplanes. But I've not seen analysis on how range and payload might play out in the real world and how the LR/XLR compares with the 752. This article is absolutely brilliant for that:

https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2 ... 321xlr-do/

It's a necessary reminder of just what a fantastic challenge Boeing faces from the XLR. Everyone needs to read it.


Nice article but it's not that big of a challenge. The Aer Lingus Density is what most operators would at least try to stuff in it. At that density it's only good for for 6 of the 15 routes cited in the article.

Something that covers 4,200NM in the winter and covers 14 of the 15 routes with something like a real 180- 200 Seats vs 135 on the premium XLR configuration is the real Meat of the Middle of the Market.

I thought the XLR would have been better than that.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:01 pm

Revelation wrote:


That's a very poor article, assume a fuel burn, then claim superiority because of fuel burn.

We will assume that the NMA-6 burns 10% more fuel per 500 nm than the A321XLR. This translates into around 10% higher fuel efficiency per passenger.


Fred
Image
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:36 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Revelation wrote:


That's a very poor article, assume a fuel burn, then claim superiority because of fuel burn.

We will assume that the NMA-6 burns 10% more fuel per 500 nm than the A321XLR. This translates into around 10% higher fuel efficiency per passenger.


Fred


It's the tight light 7W allowing 2x2x2 in the front allowing a lot more seats than an A321XLR at 135 seats allowing a lot better per seat numbers...... :D
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:44 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Revelation wrote:


That's a very poor article, assume a fuel burn, then claim superiority because of fuel burn.

We will assume that the NMA-6 burns 10% more fuel per 500 nm than the A321XLR. This translates into around 10% higher fuel efficiency per passenger.


Fred


It's the tight light 7W allowing 2x2x2 in the front allowing a lot more seats than an A321XLR at 135 seats allowing a lot better per seat numbers...... :D


LOL! and the unobtanium landing gear...

Fred
Image
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:51 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:

That's a very poor article, assume a fuel burn, then claim superiority because of fuel burn.



Fred


It's the tight light 7W allowing 2x2x2 in the front allowing a lot more seats than an A321XLR at 135 seats allowing a lot better per seat numbers...... :D


LOL! and the unobtanium landing gear...

Fred


I don't get your reference to unobtanium landing gear?

But in any case it seems like Boeing Pilots are having issues using Landing gear so a Hovercraft landing cushion could be the way to go. Up to 100,000lbs of thrust from the engines could generate a lot of positive lift and reverse thrust to slow the thing down.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:35 pm

Model of 2 x aircraft families, one WB and another NB. Their fuselages basically represent that of the 752/3 (NB) and the 762/3 (WB) in terms of scale with the max single class seating represented by the following number. The basic change to the aircraft in terms of their design is effectively the wings, 220m^2 for the WB and 165m^2 for the narrowbody. The WB has a span of 48m and the NB a span of 41m. The NB has 36klb thrust per side and the WB 40klb. The MTOW for the WB varient is 142t (one of the missions requires higher but only a small amount and so is effectively immaterial to the model) and the NB is 110t.

The assumed weights are derived from a combination of raymer and stamford methods and the aero uses a buildup method and calculates fuel flow every second to calculate a new weight. You can see the basic mission rules in the attached picture but feel free to ask any questions.

Image

I think that the NB is quite clearly at its limits in terms of length but the difference in fuel burn per passenger is in the double digits percentage wise.

Final note is that I'm aware that the distances aren't quite correct for the city pairs noted but my earth model is spherical and great circle on a spheroid would fry my brain at the moment, its normally only 3-4nm out at the most.

Fred
Image
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3651
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:56 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:

It's the tight light 7W allowing 2x2x2 in the front allowing a lot more seats than an A321XLR at 135 seats allowing a lot better per seat numbers...... :D


LOL! and the unobtanium landing gear...

Fred


I don't get your reference to unobtanium landing gear?

Oh! I thought we were just making stuff up is all.

Because of course the fuel burn per seat would be pretty much identical even if we just stacked the cabin with the premium seats. Of course in the WB variant they would be significantly smaller but we can ignore revenue if it makes you argument easier?

Fred
Image
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:04 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:

LOL! and the unobtanium landing gear...

Fred


I don't get your reference to unobtanium landing gear?

Oh! I thought we were just making stuff up is all.

Because of course the fuel burn per seat would be pretty much identical even if we just stacked the cabin with the premium seats. Of course in the WB variant they would be significantly smaller but we can ignore revenue if it makes you argument easier?

Fred


No I didn't get the joke and was just wondering what it was.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1223
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:32 pm

I don't get the stats... the writing is on the wall. There is a need for a medium capacity jet above A321 to fly short to medium haul routes to replace A330 and 777 that are plying 250-300 seat corridors in the ME and Asia and beyond. It doesn't need long legs. Just needs to hit the sweet spot on short - medium haul (1 hr - 6 hrs). Anything above is an option. 788-789 has it covered as does 77x.
Plane mad!
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:50 pm

In this area of fuel thrifty engines, the design differences between a short to medium haul frame and a long haul frame, come out as smaller or less important than in years gone by.
You need today less fuel weight or volume to fly a longer distance. If you can pack the weight of the fuel mainly into the wings, it acts as a compensation against the payload carried in the fuselage.
Since the design of the A300 or 767, both families would fly significantly longer today on the fuel volume they could pack.
Think about an A300 flying a 30 % longer distance on today's engines.
The problems with making the 787-3 more thrifty on short routes than the 787-8 is a good example. The only advantage the 787-3 ended up with, was fitting into smaller gates. Fuel burn advantage, went to the 787-8 with the better wings.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:51 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I don't get the stats... the writing is on the wall. There is a need for a medium capacity jet above A321 to fly short to medium haul routes to replace A330 and 777 that are plying 250-300 seat corridors in the ME and Asia and beyond. It doesn't need long legs. Just needs to hit the sweet spot on short - medium haul (1 hr - 6 hrs). Anything above is an option. 788-789 has it covered as does 77x.


Me too - when I saw the numbers that the XLR could only go to about 3,500NM in Aer Lingus Config (185 Seats) which will probably closer to a typical density going forward, I thought - yes there is a Gap.

Aer Lingus would probably pack something like 280-290 in an 788 and that go up to what - about 5,500 NM at that density?

Something that could take 220-240 in Aer Lingus Density about 4,500NM really would be middle of the Market and serve a lot Trans Atlantic Routes than an XLR will ever be able too.

Actually what really struck from looking at the XLR numbers is that the XLR really needs that new wing with more range and higher MTOW.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2774
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:54 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
In this area of fuel thrifty engines, the design differences between a short to medium haul frame and a long haul frame, come out as smaller or less important than in years gone by.
You need today less fuel weight or volume to fly a longer distance. If you can pack the weight of the fuel mainly into the wings, it acts as a compensation against the payload carried in the fuselage.
Since the design of the A300 or 767, both families would fly significantly longer today on the fuel volume they could pack.
Think about an A300 flying a 30 % longer distance on today's engines.
The problems with making the 787-3 more thrifty on short routes than the 787-8 is a good example. The only advantage the 787-3 ended up with, was fitting into smaller gates. Fuel burn advantage, went to the 787-8 with the better wings.


Mjoelnir - You will be shocked by this coming from me - but you make a good point.

It would be neat to look at some of the Fuel fraction numbers as a % of MTOW vs Range over the years.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos