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MIflyer12
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I wonder what changed that made them decide to upgauge after a decade?

Some factors:
  • Reduction of the US6 to the US3 in the first decade of this century made more pax per flight available to WN. I think most of us observe domestic load factors are higher than ever.
  • WN's unions have negotiated far better terms and conditions so they need more revenue per flight
  • WN's business model had been mostly leisure travelers between outlying airports but now is much more about business travel to central airports which mean higher fees per flight. A lot of this happened because the US6->US3 transition made gates available at low prices at central airports.

It's interesting to note that WN had the ex-Airtran 717 fleet in house and ended up paying DL to take it off their hands, and high cost DL is seeming to make money using those planes. It's a vivid example of how WN can't make a second fleet of small planes work for it. Personally I think if WN is going to add a second fleet it would be larger rather than smaller planes. I can see them wanting them for some of their more popular routes. I know my favorite flight fills up pretty early so I need to book it weeks ahead of time. I could see something like NMA-6 working just fine for them. Better capacity for packed coastal flights, better fuel efficiency, quicker turn around times, payload/range to do stuff like DEN-Hawaii would all be great positives.


Maybe, but WN could keep parts and pilot work group commonality with MAX 10s and gain a meaningful seat count gain vs. the -800s and MAX 8s. If they've made noises about needing NMA range, I've missed them.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:55 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Maybe, but WN could keep parts and pilot work group commonality with MAX 10s and gain a meaningful seat count gain vs. the -800s and MAX 8s. If they've made noises about needing NMA range, I've missed them.

It's interesting to consider the extremes.

I think MAX10 is pretty likely to show up in WN's fleet, yet we presume with full load it will have problems with short runways like MDW and high altitude runways like DEN. In particular it'd be nice if it could do DEN-Hawaii year round but there are doubts it can. Yet still I think there are many routes where it can do full loads and its 30-40 bump in seat count can sell without denting yields, and as you say it's not hard to add it to the fleet relative to a new type.

Something like NMA-6 certainly could do DEN-HI but no idea if it could do the smaller airports and of course it's a whole new fleet type with its own training and spares requirements.

WN has a lot of money available in the form of credits from Boeing due to the MAX debacle, it'll be interesting to see how it is spent.
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DenverTed
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:07 am

Why wouldn't you build a 753 in 2-2-2 for Denver-Chicago or Seattle-Atlanta or west coast-Hawaii? There's a need for a bigger hauler than an A321, and single aisle isn't the ticket.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:48 am

DenverTed wrote:
Why wouldn't you build a 753 in 2-2-2 for Denver-Chicago or Seattle-Atlanta or west coast-Hawaii? There's a need for a bigger hauler than an A321, and single aisle isn't the ticket.


2-2-2? That's only six abreast. What advantage would that have over a single aisle? It would need to be at least 7 abreast for a widebody to work.
 
flipdewaf
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Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:54 am

DenverTed wrote:
Why wouldn't you build a 753 in 2-2-2 for Denver-Chicago or Seattle-Atlanta or west coast-Hawaii? There's a need for a bigger hauler than an A321, and single aisle isn't the ticket.

-753 is out of production.
-2-2-2 is too heavy compared to 3-3 with no appreciable gains.
-It’s not post war Britain so aircraft manufacturers aren’t going to be persuaded to design/build aircraft for specific routes.

The middle of the market is small and shrinking and if there is a market at all needs to use efficient cross sections. 3-3 is good, 3-3-3 is good, anything between appears to need special pleasing to be justified.

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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:22 am

I guess Boeing’s thinking is:

for the pax benefit of a 7 abreast twin aisle widebody, you can get almost as much or more bang for your buck with a 6 abreast twin aisle widebody, at lower fuel burn rates, and similar comfort levels. Additionally it can be done without a composite fuselage or a maybe slightly more complex ovoid shape.

Could it last competitively is the real question, and the answer may be yes. “If” 6w is compared against other wide-bodies and not a similar capacity 6 abreast narrow body.
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TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:36 pm

I wonder if "social distancing" as a norm will impact airplane design and eventually make 17" wide seats unfavourable in the West. There will some change in how people think about this crisis beyond the present. And I am really curious to see if that impacts airplane design at all.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 pm

Can Boeing afford ‘new’ paper at the moment?

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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 pm

TObound wrote:
I wonder if "social distancing" as a norm will impact airplane design and eventually make 17" wide seats unfavourable in the West. There will some change in how people think about this crisis beyond the present. And I am really curious to see if that impacts airplane design at all.


Doubtful. With recommendations being that we stay 6 feet away from each other, I doubt 1 inch of seat width will make any bit of difference. Nothing short of long-haul first-class style seating will really ensure that level of distancing, and there’s no way that’s economical on any serious commercial scale.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:51 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Can Boeing afford ‘new’ paper at the moment?

Fred

Could airlines afford to buy one? A 767-400x is sounding better and better.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:13 am

hOMSaR wrote:
With recommendations being that we stay 6 feet away from each other, I doubt 1 inch of seat width will make any bit of difference. Nothing short of long-haul first-class style seating will really ensure that level of distancing, and there’s no way that’s economical on any serious commercial scale.


6 feet might mean something different when the air circulates through a HEPA filter twice a minute.

I'm reminded of the Tylenol scare, and what it took to restore the public's trust. In that case, the tamper-resistant lid. I suspect that airlines are thinking about what the equivalent changes in the cabin might be that world provide the passenger with a measure of more safety, real or imagined. At the very least, perhaps the Microban anti-microbial logo on tray tables, but perhaps some contouring in the headrest (which world be hell on tall people).
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:13 pm

With DL grounding 600+ frames and no one around to work on them, how long would it take to redo cabins and change seats?
The best that can be done is that when the all clear is given the airlines DO NOT book a full flight, ensure that seats when booking online are dispersed to keep at least 1 empty seat beside each pax, it will reduce pax load per flight, but it may encourage more traveler's, at best it would get more airplanes back in the sky with the resulting know on effect of employment. WN would have to enforce something similar by staff instructions since they use open seating.

When you look at London for example, they reduced train service and had many more people crammed into less trains which most likely was not good for keeping the infection rate low.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:52 am

Leeham reporting (subscription only) that Avalon CEO and PW say NMA is dead and Boeing's next new plane will be single-aisle not available until "2030 decade" as it must be dramatically more efficient than neo/MAX.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/02/engin ... le-design/
Summary
• The NMA is gone. Long live the NMA. That moment has passed.
• Back to the 757 replacement concept and, now, A321XLR competitor.
• Single-aisle vs light twin-aisle is part of the challenge.
• New airplane must be “dramatically” more efficient than MAX, neo.
• 2030 decade is the quickest this dramatic improvement can be achieved.
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:24 am

scbriml wrote:
Leeham reporting (subscription only) that Avalon CEO and PW say NMA is dead and Boeing's next new plane will be single-aisle not available until "2030 decade" as it must be dramatically more efficient than neo/MAX.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/02/engin ... le-design/
Summary
• The NMA is gone. Long live the NMA. That moment has passed.
• Back to the 757 replacement concept and, now, A321XLR competitor.
• Single-aisle vs light twin-aisle is part of the challenge.
• New airplane must be “dramatically” more efficient than MAX, neo.
• 2030 decade is the quickest this dramatic improvement can be achieved.



I don’t find that surprising in any way and I have no doubt that AB are already scoping a A320 replacement as well.

It’s probably like PS5 versus XBox-X. Who launches first and at what price.

Personally I hope both of them can offer at least 2 engine options each to make for a proper, competitive environment.
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:42 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Personally I hope both of them can offer at least 2 engine options each to make for a proper, competitive environment.


While their customers might prefer an engine choice, fewer and fewer planes are offering that choice. It significantly drives up the cost for the OEM and there’s little if any evidence that a lack of engine choice hampers sales in any way.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:59 am

scbriml wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Personally I hope both of them can offer at least 2 engine options each to make for a proper, competitive environment.


While their customers might prefer an engine choice, fewer and fewer planes are offering that choice. It significantly drives up the cost for the OEM and there’s little if any evidence that a lack of engine choice hampers sales in any way.


Not sure about that. Risk reduction and competition is on the airlines' agenda more then ever.

And the 2 engine choice NEO convincingly beat the single engine 737 sales over the last decade.

The 787 also offers engine choice, which didn't hurt the program.

Not that I believe it's only about engine choice..

Excluding GE or not offering the airlines a geared Pratt Turbofan are probably both paths Boeing will avoid.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:16 am

keesje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Personally I hope both of them can offer at least 2 engine options each to make for a proper, competitive environment.


While their customers might prefer an engine choice, fewer and fewer planes are offering that choice. It significantly drives up the cost for the OEM and there’s little if any evidence that a lack of engine choice hampers sales in any way.


Not sure about that. Risk reduction and competition is on the airlines' agenda more then ever.

And the 2 engine choice NEO convincingly beat the single engine 737 sales over the last decade.

The 787 also offers engine choice, which didn't hurt the program.


That’s not really evidence, is it?

Evidence would be airline CEOs saying something like “We didn’t buy X because it didn’t offer an engine choice.” Sales of 77W/L/F, A350, 737 don’t appear to have suffered by not having an engine choice not to mention thousands of regional jets with no choice. The fact is, fewer and fewer planes are offered with an engine choice. I don’t see that trend changing.

With the magnifying glass on certification as it is now, the cost of certifying multiple engines on a plane will become even more expensive
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planecane
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:29 am

keesje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Personally I hope both of them can offer at least 2 engine options each to make for a proper, competitive environment.


While their customers might prefer an engine choice, fewer and fewer planes are offering that choice. It significantly drives up the cost for the OEM and there’s little if any evidence that a lack of engine choice hampers sales in any way.


Not sure about that. Risk reduction and competition is on the airlines' agenda more then ever.

And the 2 engine choice NEO convincingly beat the single engine 737 sales over the last decade.

The 787 also offers engine choice, which didn't hurt the program.

Not that I believe it's only about engine choice..

Excluding GE or not offering the airlines a geared Pratt Turbofan are probably both paths Boeing will avoid.


The NEO beating the 737 is mostly due to the A321 being higher off the ground so it can have the bigger engines and perform better than the MAX 9 or MAX 10. If the NEO only had one engine choice and the MAX had two it wouldn't make any difference.

Had Boeing foregone grandfathering and fitted the MAX with taller gear to fit the same engines as the NEO, it would be a 50/50 market even with only one choice on the MAX (in addition to other benefits of taller gear which don't require discussion).
 
DartHerald
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:22 pm

If Boeing couldn't make the NMA case before, what has changed, especially now that the A321 Neo has taken much of the market? What is discussed in the Leeham article seems to be an A321 "me too" plane for which the various technical enhancements such as engines will be equally available to the A321 (unless Airbus can tie up the GTFs exclusively). Unless the NMA can be viably shrunk down to encompass the 737-800 size it sounds like Boeing will be increasingly outclassed in that area.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:49 pm

DartHerald wrote:
If Boeing couldn't make the NMA case before, what has changed, especially now that the A321 Neo has taken much of the market? What is discussed in the Leeham article seems to be an A321 "me too" plane for which the various technical enhancements such as engines will be equally available to the A321 (unless Airbus can tie up the GTFs exclusively). Unless the NMA can be viably shrunk down to encompass the 737-800 size it sounds like Boeing will be increasingly outclassed in that area.

So which new frame can either OEM come up with that the other cannot make a competing frame?

What I find weird is the article talking about 757 replacement, that is like talking about the 727 replacement market, and yes there are a few still flying which is the point.
Leeham and others have long since touted the death of the 757, the 90+% of the routes being done by A32XX and 737's has been around for years, so if they are still talking about 757, in my mind nothing in their analysis has changed.
The MAX replacement having to be so much more efficient, really, why, if they had invested more funds into the MAX to accommodate the larger engines how much worse would the a/c have been, and yes, MCAS and other deficiencies are all a part of the MAX design process.

We have no new technology that will be single use, even if it is, there is always more ways to "skin a cat", when the MAX was in service, how many airlines regretted using it due to the NEO performance being so superior? A 737 replacement announced now even if on par with the existing NEO's brings one big benefit to Boeing, it will be an a/c that can be easily upgraded over the next decades, and with the current situation, take over the bulk of the MAX backlog.

In my opinion, Boeing has the option right now of two mindsets, one is to replace the 737. Boeing now has to accept that the FAA is pushing them toward a new frame, even if technically they can still update / enhance the MAX, the administrators will make that a financial dead end.
Second is to accept that nothing going forward will be a slam dunk, there are some who will like your product, others who will not and some in the middle whose opinion is driven by existing contracts for existing frames. So look at your line up, see where your deficiencies lie, and design a program to address.

The NMA / MOM was such a product, and based on what information was leaked, there was sufficient interest to launch a frame expressed by US and Asian carriers, in my opinion Boeing simply wanted 100% certainty versus 50% or more, now with the MAX continued debacle and the Covid-19 crisis, the ship has sailed, if they had launched, the next two years would have been spent bringing the a/c to market when the recovery hit its stride, now, they may be driven into doing something based on who ever has the loudest voice.
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:41 pm

As long as airliners stay as tube with wings, the A32X is upgradable virtually till the end of times.

The MAX, if RTS, will carry on with unplanned handicap - the retraining requirement, while a Boeing clean sheet design cannot categorically beat an upgraded A32X while suffering of lack of commonality, also being risky. Besides, based on recent achievements, the chance of Boeing not messing up a new project are rather poor.

Even when the design paradigm will shift (BWB or other), resetting the chances in theory, it’s Boeing who will have to rush to make the first move, allowing Airbus to do even better. Boeing will inherit a part of today handicap in the future.

Airbus will get bored printing money this decade. Probably one day in the future they will remember this era as “the golden times”.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:01 pm

I guess that the bigger question is going to be one of optimization.

Where should Boeing focus on aiming the "sweet spot" of whatever replaces the 737? Do they aim for something that is designed to be at its most efficient at 225 seats, then make a range of lengths to support a 200/225/250 spread? Do they aim to make sure that this new plane can fit everywhere that an existing 737 can, or do they go up to the next size class? Do they also include expanding the cargo carrying ability of the next design as compared to the existing 737, or do they keep it minimal to increase efficiency?

No matter what, what they build next is going to face increasingly stringent emissions guidelines and fuel economy targets. Even more than in the past, mass reduction will be paramount.

I feel that, unless Boeing can find a way to target something that's roughly the size of the 757-200/300, and make it as carbon fiber intense as the 787, and also include another generational improvement in the engine efficiency department, while keeping the wings small enough to fit all the existing gates out there that service the 737, its just not going to be a success within the next decade. However, given what Boeing has said, I suspect that the next NSA will have a hybrid propulsion system design of some sort, allowing a burst of power for TO/GA, but more efficient cruise modes for the rest of the flight.

As for the smaller section of the market. I feel that the Boeing tie up with Embraer will produce further improvements to the E-195 E2 that will suffice for the next decade.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:19 pm

keesje wrote:
Not sure about that. Risk reduction and competition is on the airlines' agenda more then ever.


Risk reduction arguably favors the single engine scenario as you can optimize the airframe and engine combination.


keesje wrote:
And the 2 engine choice NEO convincingly beat the single engine 737 sales over the last decade.


A GTF option probably would not have dramatically improved the MAX's competitiveness in the over-200 seat market, which is where the A321 has taken such a commanding lead.


keesje wrote:
The 787 also offers engine choice, which didn't hurt the program.


And the A350 does not, yet that program does not seem to have been overly hampered in terms of sales.


keesje wrote:
Not that I believe it's only about engine choice..excluding GE or not offering the airlines a geared Pratt Turbofan are probably both paths Boeing will avoid.


The sales in the 150-250 seat single-aisle market are so large for both OEMs that it is the one market that would justify offering two engine choices.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:25 pm

The engine are not the problem for the MAX. The main problem is that any version longer than the -8 is literally stretching the design too far.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:28 pm

The decision by Calhoun to relook into the study is probably the luckiest thing to happen to Boeing in the past 1.5 years. given that the market has changed and a new normal will emerge from this coronavirus crisis.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:40 pm

Boeing has lost the NB battle for now, 2020-2026 will be dominated by damage control.

There are IMO 2 big factors that will save Boeing:
:arrow: US government, bailing them out & ordering billions in defense equipment
:arrow: The airlines deeply resist monopolies. They feel so, said so & will act accordingly.

I think Boeing needs to build a lean NB optimized at 200 seats single class, AKH capable & growth potential towards 4500NM or 250 seats.

:arrow: The claims that it had to be 15%-20% than the 737MAX to be worth it, can finally be put into that garbage can, with "Short Term Greed" printed on it. :coffee:

I think 10% better than A321 NEO + some unique capabilities will do / are possible. Better engines, wings and new materials / production technology are available for 2026.

Big Airlines will order it, because of their dual source policies and risk management considerations. :worried: Lessons learned.. :worried:

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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:45 pm

DartHerald wrote:
If Boeing couldn't make the NMA case before, what has changed, especially now that the A321 Neo has taken much of the market?


It sounds like rather than focusing on the 240-270 seat market (the original NMA focus), Boeing is now going to aim for 200-240 seats.


DartHerald wrote:
What is discussed in the Leeham article seems to be an A321 "me too" plane for which the various technical enhancements such as engines will be equally available to the A321 (unless Airbus can tie up the GTFs exclusively). Unless the NMA can be viably shrunk down to encompass the 737-800 size it sounds like Boeing will be increasingly outclassed in that area.


The MAX is outclassed at the upper-end as it seats less people and does not fly as far as the A321. This new family will address that by offering the same seating (240 single-class) and similar or greater range. I am going to guess Boeing will look at three lengths - 40 meters at 200 seats, 43 meters at 220 seats and 45 meters at 240 seats, but they could arguably do 40m and 45m at 200/240 seats.


par13del wrote:
What I find weird is the article talking about 757 replacement, that is like talking about the 727 replacement market, and yes there are a few still flying which is the point. Leeham and others have long since touted the death of the 757, the 90+% of the routes being done by A32XX and 737's has been around for years, so if they are still talking about 757, in my mind nothing in their analysis has changed.


Rather than thinking "757 physical frame" replacement, we need to think "757 market" replacement. And more specifically, "757-200 market" replacement - a frame that seats up to 240 passengers with a design range of over 7000km. And this could be an area Boeing could advance over Airbus as the A321XLR can do one or the other - it can fly 240 passengers, but not 7000km. To do that, it has to carry a fair number less. Boeing might be able to better to both depending on aerodynamics and operating weights.


par13del wrote:
The MAX replacement having to be so much more efficient, really, why, if they had invested more funds into the MAX to accommodate the larger engines how much worse would the a/c have been, and yes, MCAS and other deficiencies are all a part of the MAX design process.


I expect Boeing pushed the MAX as far as they could with the constraints (time to market, certification, customer requirements, etc.) they were operating under.


par13del wrote:
In my opinion, Boeing has the option right now of two mindsets, one is to replace the 737. Boeing now has to accept that the FAA is pushing them toward a new frame, even if technically they can still update / enhance the MAX, the administrators will make that a financial dead end.


Honestly even if MAX had never been grounded, Boeing knew they had to move to an all-new family. The 737 was a frame designed around 1960s airline operations and it's pretty amazing it's still relevant 60 years later, but airline operations have moved on to the point the 737 can't really be adapted to work with them.


LightningZ71 wrote:
I guess that the bigger question is going to be one of optimization. Where should Boeing focus on aiming the "sweet spot" of whatever replaces the 737? Do they aim for something that is designed to be at its most efficient at 225 seats, then make a range of lengths to support a 200/225/250 spread? Do they aim to make sure that this new plane can fit everywhere that an existing 737 can, or do they go up to the next size class? Do they also include expanding the cargo carrying ability of the next design as compared to the existing 737, or do they keep it minimal to increase efficiency?


The plane will certainly fit in current single-aisle gates. My guess it will have folding wingtips to allow a 40m span with 36m folded.

I think Boeing could do two lengths - 40m at 200 seats and 45m at 240 seats. It works for Airbus (37m/45m) and airlines seem to be favoring larger frames, anyway. But Boeing could also offer a middle (43m) length at ~220 seats.


LightningZ71 wrote:
I feel that, unless Boeing can find a way to target something that's roughly the size of the 757-200/300, and make it as carbon fiber intense as the 787, and also include another generational improvement in the engine efficiency department, while keeping the wings small enough to fit all the existing gates out there that service the 737, its just not going to be a success within the next decade.


Going all the way to 55m (necessary for ~300 seats) will probably require Boeing committing to two families as the structural requirements to support the much-higher operating weights will make the smaller models to overbuilt. I could see the larger model maybe stretching to whatever length is needed to provide 250 seats at 27" pitch, but I just don't see anything longer.


LightningZ71 wrote:
As for the smaller section of the market. I feel that the Boeing tie up with Embraer will produce further improvements to the E-195 E2 that will suffice for the next decade.


I have read that the Boeing-Embraer agreement effectively covers aircraft with seating up to 150, which is where the 737-7 sits, so that is why I see this new family starting at 200 seats (737-8 and larger).
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:04 pm

scbriml wrote:
Leeham reporting (subscription only) that Avalon CEO and PW say NMA is dead and Boeing's next new plane will be single-aisle not available until "2030 decade" as it must be dramatically more efficient than neo/MAX.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/02/engin ... le-design/
Summary
• The NMA is gone. Long live the NMA. That moment has passed.
• Back to the 757 replacement concept and, now, A321XLR competitor.
• Single-aisle vs light twin-aisle is part of the challenge.
• New airplane must be “dramatically” more efficient than MAX, neo.
• 2030 decade is the quickest this dramatic improvement can be achieved.


Like others, I'm not surprised by this. Calhoun was no fan of NMA and once DM was out, NMA was dead. We already read meetings with NMA suppliers were terminated the week Calhoun reported to work. The need to design an all new cockpit that Calhoun spoke to meant that the time line was going to be long.

The main take away is that Boeing will need MAX to provide revenue for the entire 2020s, there is no "Plan B" for Boeing in the single aisle market.

I think showing up in 2030 with a 757 sized plane may end up being too little too late.

I'm not sure the industry has an appetite for a clean sheet for the next five or so years anyway. Inducting a new type is a heavy spend for an airline and no one will financially healthy for several years to come.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:30 pm

keesje wrote:
Big Airlines will order it, because of their dual source policies and risk management considerations. :worried: Lessons learned.. :worried:

It might be possible that "lesson learned" goes both ways.

Since the 787 up to the Max, what lessons are airlines CEO's learning from Boeing ?

Airlines managers who endorsed once the Max, after undoubtedly lot of versus internal divergences, how did they feel and how strong become their position since the saga ?

On the other side, the A32X is a mature product (not young, nor old) and future enhancement plans doesn't look overstretched.

Sure, as an airline CEO you would like to better have a duopoly instead of monopoly, however why not let your competitor sustain the sick horse on his expenses while you take the more efficient money maker and bury your competitor ?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:34 pm

Stitch wrote:
LightningZ71 wrote:
I feel that, unless Boeing can find a way to target something that's roughly the size of the 757-200/300, and make it as carbon fiber intense as the 787, and also include another generational improvement in the engine efficiency department, while keeping the wings small enough to fit all the existing gates out there that service the 737, its just not going to be a success within the next decade.


Going all the way to 55m (necessary for ~300 seats) will probably require Boeing committing to two families as the structural requirements to support the much-higher operating weights will make the smaller models to overbuilt. I could see the larger model maybe stretching to whatever length is needed to provide 250 seats at 27" pitch, but I just don't see anything longer.


I won't bother trying to predict exact sizes, but I'd imagine they can compromise on optimization of a largest variant with frame reinforcements, skin gauge changes, and possibly wing chord extensions depending on performance desired to still cover at least 50 seats in capacity differences at the same density.

And I won't be the least bit surprised if an A322 enters the picture at some point.

LightningZ71 wrote:
As for the smaller section of the market. I feel that the Boeing tie up with Embraer will produce further improvements to the E-195 E2 that will suffice for the next decade.


I have read that the Boeing-Embraer agreement effectively covers aircraft with seating up to 150, which is where the 737-7 sits, so that is why I see this new family starting at 200 seats (737-8 and larger).[/quote]

In my little armchair world, I think the ideal pairings would have been a Boeing large NSA and CSeries, competing against Airbus A320 NEO and E2. The sizes seem like they would complement each other better that way. In 2017, Boeing saw things very differently, though.

All these current generation aircraft would likely be due for another engine update and round of general improvements around the time the NSA would be ramping up.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:39 pm

LightningZ71 wrote:
As for the smaller section of the market. I feel that the Boeing tie up with Embraer will produce further improvements to the E-195 E2 that will suffice for the next decade.

Are we sure the tie up will survive in this climate?

Hard to see Boeing spending its own cash to close the deal, Seattle Times suggests Boeing's future is on the line these days.

If there is a bail out, it's going to be terrible optics to use US taxpayer funds for Boeing to buy out a Brazilian firm just to boost future business prospects.

Yet corporations decide everything these days, so anything is possible.

Personally, I would not count BOE-EMB as a done deal.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:07 pm

Revelation wrote:
The main take away is that Boeing will need MAX to provide revenue for the entire 2020s, there is no "Plan B" for Boeing in the single aisle market.

I think showing up in 2030 with a 757 sized plane may end up being too little too late.

I'm not sure the industry has an appetite for a clean sheet for the next five or so years anyway. Inducting a new type is a heavy spend for an airline and no one will financially healthy for several years to come.

A clean sheet with the significant initial investment may be what the aviation industry in the USA needs to assist in the recovery, especially if it is a family of a/c to go from 757 size to smallest narrow body.
Recovery from this virus crisis is going to need more than just someone coming up with new technology. The airlines will not need to make any significant payouts for another 3 to 5 years, the industry in the US is already in a hole due to the number of produced frames sitting undelivered, the workers who will be employed to get those flyable if RTS is small compared to the resources that went into getting the a/c to that state.
Not necessary a if you build it they will come, but if you have to build something look to the future, if the new build wipes out the MAX back log it will be a more healthy back log.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:26 pm

Don´t you think Airbus will be hit as hard in the crisis. So why invest into an A220-500 just to compete with your own A320. It will be hard enough to keep the A220 alive.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:53 pm

scbriml wrote:
Leeham reporting (subscription only) that Avalon CEO and PW say NMA is dead and Boeing's next new plane will be single-aisle not available until "2030 decade" as it must be dramatically more efficient than neo/MAX.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/02/engin ... le-design/
Summary
• The NMA is gone. Long live the NMA. That moment has passed.
• Back to the 757 replacement concept and, now, A321XLR competitor.
• Single-aisle vs light twin-aisle is part of the challenge.
• New airplane must be “dramatically” more efficient than MAX, neo.
• 2030 decade is the quickest this dramatic improvement can be achieved.


In some way its is rather disappointing that 50 billion dollars in dividend and share buy back would be more beneficial to the company than launching a 15 billion dollar NMA . . .

I wonder if this market segment can be covered by single-aisle, 6 abreast, four, five or even six fuselage lengths, and and two wing/engine combinations:
A) small wing, single bogie gear, 25 - 30 klb engines, short-medium range
B) large wing, double bogie gear, 35-40 klb engines, medium-long range (upto 8-9 hours)

Combine fuselage length with wing as required to achieve desired payload-range. If such could be produced on same assembly line, benefit of scale could be significant (also for large suppliers) if a single assembly line would be optimized for rate 50 - 75 per month.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
Don´t you think Airbus will be hit as hard in the crisis. So why invest into an A220-500 just to compete with your own A320. It will be hard enough to keep the A220 alive.


They are hard hit. After the crisis they have the mature A220, NEO's, A339 and A350s to build on. In a less competitive 5 year playing field, against the MAX, 787-9 and 777-9.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:13 pm

keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Don´t you think Airbus will be hit as hard in the crisis. So why invest into an A220-500 just to compete with your own A320. It will be hard enough to keep the A220 alive.


They are hard hit. After the crisis they have the mature A220, NEO's, A339 and A350s to build on. In a less competitive 5 year playing field, against the MAX, 787-9 and 777-9.


It is impossible to asses the impact at the moment, as we have no idea when air travel will return to something resembling a normal situation. If strong restrictions remain in place until a vaccine has been found, tested and the majority of the global population has been vaccinated we can easily be looking at 12-18 months from now on. The industry could be very different at that time. Many airlines could be government controlled and ticket prices could increase by a lot, so that the remaining capacity is enough. The desire for new planes could be reduced for at least 5 years and many airlines might be forced to buy from one OEM or the other based on national interest and not on performance. Even bilateral and open sky agreements could be in question and some airlines could be locked out from some markets. Imho the time of A vs. B is over, as the survival of the industry as we know it is at stake.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:42 pm

PW100 wrote:
In some way its is rather disappointing that 50 billion dollars in dividend and share buy back would be more beneficial to the company than launching a 15 billion dollar NMA . . .


It's all about short-term returns, unfortunately. And not just with Boeing - the Fortune 500 as a total spent some 110% of revenue on stock buybacks.


PW100 wrote:
I wonder if this market segment can be covered by single-aisle, 6 abreast, four, five or even six fuselage lengths, and and two wing/engine combinations:
A) small wing, single bogie gear, 25 - 30 klb engines, short-medium range
B) large wing, double bogie gear, 35-40 klb engines, medium-long range (up to 8-9 hours)


It should be technically doable since we arguably had this with the 737 and 757 families.

When it comes to wings, the 737 wing is 34m (sans winglets) and the 757 wing was 38m so it might be possible to do a single wing that is 40m extended and 36m folded with additional strengthening for the higher operating weights. That would save a shedload of money compared to doing two unique wings and that single wing would be better than what the 737 has and the 757 had.
 
747megatop
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:57 pm

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Don´t you think Airbus will be hit as hard in the crisis. So why invest into an A220-500 just to compete with your own A320. It will be hard enough to keep the A220 alive.


They are hard hit. After the crisis they have the mature A220, NEO's, A339 and A350s to build on. In a less competitive 5 year playing field, against the MAX, 787-9 and 777-9.


It is impossible to asses the impact at the moment, as we have no idea when air travel will return to something resembling a normal situation. If strong restrictions remain in place until a vaccine has been found, tested and the majority of the global population has been vaccinated we can easily be looking at 12-18 months from now on. The industry could be very different at that time. Many airlines could be government controlled and ticket prices could increase by a lot, so that the remaining capacity is enough. The desire for new planes could be reduced for at least 5 years and many airlines might be forced to buy from one OEM or the other based on national interest and not on performance. Even bilateral and open sky agreements could be in question and some airlines could be locked out from some markets. Imho the time of A vs. B is over, as the survival of the industry as we know it is at stake.

I foresee strong restrictions in place till a vaccine is found. Look at China now, they have closed their borders to prevent import of new cases -https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals other countries will also do the samething for the foreseeable future after they come out of lockdowns.

After a vaccine is found i can see a mandatory legal requirement enacted by many countries that will let in only vaccinated passengers; which means that passengers will be allowed to board an international flight at the point of origin only if you have a vaccination certificate (i can almost guarantee that this is going to happen). So, international travel will definitely take years to return to pre-coronavirus levels. Boeing & Airbus will essentially be on life support from their respective govts. Innovation and adaptability is the key for airlines and manufacturers alike in a post coronavirus world.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:08 pm

In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:11 pm

TObound wrote:
Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.

Embraer problem is a new a/c that violates existing scope clauses at the USA Big 3, in my opinion, the odds of that changing is slim to none, regardless of the state of the industry. Will there be some genius who will attempt to use the industry doldrums to try to get scope relief, sure, will they succeed, I doubt it.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:15 pm

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Don´t you think Airbus will be hit as hard in the crisis. So why invest into an A220-500 just to compete with your own A320. It will be hard enough to keep the A220 alive.


They are hard hit. After the crisis they have the mature A220, NEO's, A339 and A350s to build on. In a less competitive 5 year playing field, against the MAX, 787-9 and 777-9.


It is impossible to asses the impact at the moment, as we have no idea when air travel will return to something resembling a normal situation. If strong restrictions remain in place until a vaccine has been found, tested and the majority of the global population has been vaccinated we can easily be looking at 12-18 months from now on. The industry could be very different at that time. Many airlines could be government controlled and ticket prices could increase by a lot, so that the remaining capacity is enough. The desire for new planes could be reduced for at least 5 years and many airlines might be forced to buy from one OEM or the other based on national interest and not on performance. Even bilateral and open sky agreements could be in question and some airlines could be locked out from some markets. Imho the time of A vs. B is over, as the survival of the industry as we know it is at stake.


Obviously impossible to know how next months will look like but I certainly agree it will take long before the air travel market goes back operating normally, if ever like it was not so long ago.
Making a prediction now for the world and the air travel market in 2025 wouldn't make much business sense.
Remember commercial aircraft manufacturing is a terribly long cycle industry therefore used to take decison on prediction to adapt to the market, but after all only make plans decades in advance when lauching a new project. That's why no NMA decision will be taken before the market stabilize after the crisis, it was already unclear, imagine now ! :embarrassed2:
Your 12-18months are only the timescale needed to implement a modest rate change (generaly increase, ok), rates which are historically high for the currently sucessful programs.
The various lockdowns in country/states will naturally force rates down. An healthy programs will adapt a likely cancellation wave by keeping a reduced rate, or reduce further if needed until better days comes. A220, A320, A350 on one side. The 787, and for the optimist in me the MAX (*), on the other side. All would support reducing rate without making the program bleeding money.

(*) : I mean, at this point the MAX line can only increase it's buidling rate :optimist: . With the crisis it's possible the line will restart VERY slowly, due massive backlog of already build waiting for delivery. Suffering its own crisis plus now corona's will evidently leave this program making much less money than all of us would have thought, I think we can all agree. But money lost (not made) before march is 0% Covid related, and money lost in the coming months won't be 100% covid either, I would even say MAX is losing much less than others due to covid.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:46 am

So Boeing is going to survive selling one decent plane with a reasonably sized niche? And even it in reduced numbers. Am I the only one seeing problems? I'm sure the CEO's will do very well.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:34 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
So Boeing is going to survive selling one decent plane with a reasonably sized niche? And even it in reduced numbers. Am I the only one seeing problems? I'm sure the CEO's will do very well.


At this point I would be stunned if the MAX isn't back. The regulators will be under enormous pressure to recertify and get people making planes again.

However I don't see them building a lot - but if they had 5,000ish still to deliver pre-covid - throwing a dart I would guess they deliver about 3,000 - 3,500 between now and 2030 and a replacement.

So call it 25-30 per month of production (eventually) until they replace it.

It may only start at 10ish per month for the first year or so.

It really depends on the economy after 2021. At this point assume 2020 and 2021 are basically a write off for new orders for anyone - just a lot of cancellations.

So if Max gets back to 25 and 787 is at 5 (which probably means one of the lines shuts down) and 777X is at 2-3 - the big question is how many fewer people are employed?

That is the terrible cost of all this.

I'm sure Boeing defense will be quit busy for the next ten years. There is a 2T infrastructure Bill coming - I'm sure there will be some defense department orders in there. A great opportunity to replace the fighter fleets and rebuild the Navy - it won't be hard to get another $100-200 Billion through right now to keep workers employed either in that Bill or another.

More F15's, F18's and Tankers for Boeing.

You could also fund the whole MARS program in one shot and give the Nation a goal which Boeing would benefit from as well.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:14 am

TObound wrote:
In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.


What edge does the 225 have on Boeing? It nearly directly competes with the 320.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:02 am

The 797 becomes absolutely beyond fascinating now.

Boeing did dodge a huge bullet with this refinement delay!
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:20 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
TObound wrote:
In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.


What edge does the 225 have on Boeing? It nearly directly competes with the 320.

And the A320 does not compete with any Boeing product?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:12 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
So Boeing is going to survive selling one decent plane with a reasonably sized niche? And even it in reduced numbers. Am I the only one seeing problems?


No appetite for reality at this stage.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:21 am

Airlines and the OEM's have and will be battening down the hatches for a lot of stormy economic weather. There will be a lot of airlines unable to accept the produced planes, then several years once back to 70% of 2019's loads to get the minimal repairs to the balance sheet. Only then would new purchases be considered, there will be a huge amount of good used metal and good lease rates competing with that. A feel for the price of oil needs to be measured, only then will the airlines know what should be the next clean sheet.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:17 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
TObound wrote:
In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.


What edge does the 225 have on Boeing? It nearly directly competes with the 320.

And the A320 does not compete with any Boeing product?


Not what I said. I replied to the comment that the 225 would hurt Boeing. But the fact is the 225 competes with the 320 as much as it does the 737. Given the current economic situation the 225 isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:57 pm

keesje wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
So Boeing is going to survive selling one decent plane with a reasonably sized niche? And even it in reduced numbers. Am I the only one seeing problems?


No appetite for reality at this stage.


At bottom, much of my speculative support for the NMA was that even were it to be only barely profitable it was needed to keep Boeing in the race. The MAX 8, NMA, 787, and 777X would have been a formidable lineup. And despite the negative view from the very able minds of some on the other side of the Atlantic, a reprocessing of design, production, and maintenance learned from the NMA would be an awesome set of abilities. But then, Boeing is no longer a Seattle company.
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