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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:05 pm

After being the most thoroughly tested and investigated commercial airframe in history before It returns to service, rather than shun the 737MAX, perhaps airlines flock to it because they know it will not only be safe, but also reliable - no need for future Service Bulletins or Airworthiness Directives when you already fixed everything. :silly:
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:09 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Tons of hope in there, if someone else picks up the bill. Would you want your family savings, pensions, stock packages to be invested in the Boeing 737 MAX?

People who do decide how many of our family savings and pension are invested just did provide $13.8B to address the issues in the program, so the answer of the professionals who have far better information than you do is "yes". Compare/contrast to let's say BBD's ability to raise funds, which was nil.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SL1N2B41A8


I wasn't talking about Boeing taking another loan a months ago, but airlines investing in new fleets.
They need to save themselves, e.g. from the Corona aftermath + Boeing MAX situation.


This is getting ridiculous. After Corona, any airline that survives will hardly care which single aisle they fly, they will care to fill them. Waiting is the wise choice and if the demand should bounce back quickly, Boeing might still do the 797 as a twin aisle. If it does not bounce back, the MAX will be fine till the early to mid 2030ies.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:27 pm

keesje wrote:
I wasn't talking about Boeing taking another loan a months ago, but airlines investing in new fleets.
They need to save themselves, e.g. from the Corona aftermath + Boeing MAX situation.

Boeing also needs to save itself, and investing tens of $billions to create a clean sheet me-too airliner while destroying the value of the $billions it and its partners have invested in MAX and LEAP is not going to get that done. Telling WN, FR, et al that they need to wait 4-6 years while Boeing develops the me-too airliner to get replacements for their aging NGs also isn't going to get it done. The airlines have a lot invested in MAX and no viable Plan B. Now the financial community is even more invested in MAX's recovery. Hopes for a diversion to a clean sheet me too replacement make no sense.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:04 pm

In five years, will the A330neo even be in production? There is a high probability that the 767 will remain in production longer than the A330neo given the 767s success as a freighter.


Especially if the reengined 767 freighter does eventually see the light of day. However, given the economic situation I'm wondering if that bird is also in jeopardy? Oh well, that's something for another thread.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:47 am

Depending on how the crisis works out, the general public and business travellers might avoid flying altogether for quite some time. And if they care about the type after that, is quite questionable, as the MAX problems will be hardly on anybody´s mind after COVID-19.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:27 am

seahawk wrote:
the MAX problems will be hardly on anybody´s mind after COVID-19.

This will definitely be the case. COVID-19 has saved the MAX program in my opinion. There was a small of risk of passengers boycotting the MAX when it re-entered service putting pressure on the airline. There is now zero chance of that happening now. Passengers will be busy with their hand sanitiser for the initial few years.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:38 am

RJMAZ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
the MAX problems will be hardly on anybody´s mind after COVID-19.

This will definitely be the case. COVID-19 has saved the MAX program in my opinion. There was a small of risk of passengers boycotting the MAX when it re-entered service putting pressure on the airline. There is now zero chance of that happening now. Passengers will be busy with their hand sanitiser for the initial few years.



you guys forget that once Corona goes down the media will be glad to have other bad things to report about. And social media does not forget so fast either.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:56 am

Imho that only would be a problem if there is another incident with the MAX. In that case it would be dead for good.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:01 pm

oschkosch wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
the MAX problems will be hardly on anybody´s mind after COVID-19.

This will definitely be the case. COVID-19 has saved the MAX program in my opinion. There was a small of risk of passengers boycotting the MAX when it re-entered service putting pressure on the airline. There is now zero chance of that happening now. Passengers will be busy with their hand sanitiser for the initial few years.



you guys forget that once Corona goes down the media will be glad to have other bad things to report about. And social media does not forget so fast either.

Why are we forgetting the regulators, you know, the one's who have no timeline for RTS and will only do so when it is safe?
Covid-19 has no effect on their mindset, and since Boeing survived an entire year with the a/c grounded, that proves they can take their time and turn the 737 into a FBW with a new cockpit human / machine interface, or at least give it a good try.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:28 pm

par13del wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
This will definitely be the case. COVID-19 has saved the MAX program in my opinion. There was a small of risk of passengers boycotting the MAX when it re-entered service putting pressure on the airline. There is now zero chance of that happening now. Passengers will be busy with their hand sanitiser for the initial few years.



you guys forget that once Corona goes down the media will be glad to have other bad things to report about. And social media does not forget so fast either.

Why are we forgetting the regulators, you know, the one's who have no timeline for RTS and will only do so when it is safe?
Covid-19 has no effect on their mindset, and since Boeing survived an entire year with the a/c grounded, that proves they can take their time and turn the 737 into a FBW with a new cockpit human / machine interface, or at least give it a good try.

I agree.

I hope when you say “turn the 737 into a FBW with a new cockpit human / machine interface” you’re talking about a clean sheet design. I’m sure Boeing doesn’t want another MAX situation again. Regarding the cockpit, I hope it will have side sticks. And I think it will most likely be a dark cockpit philosophy, just like the 787. And also a composite aircraft, like the 787. Is there any chance Boeing will switch to an autothrust system? Boeing could model their new cockpit after the A220 cockpit.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:36 pm

par13del wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
This will definitely be the case. COVID-19 has saved the MAX program in my opinion. There was a small of risk of passengers boycotting the MAX when it re-entered service putting pressure on the airline. There is now zero chance of that happening now. Passengers will be busy with their hand sanitiser for the initial few years.



you guys forget that once Corona goes down the media will be glad to have other bad things to report about. And social media does not forget so fast either.

Why are we forgetting the regulators, you know, the one's who have no timeline for RTS and will only do so when it is safe?
Covid-19 has no effect on their mindset, and since Boeing survived an entire year with the a/c grounded, that proves they can take their time and turn the 737 into a FBW with a new cockpit human / machine interface, or at least give it a good try.


The regulators have been pretty consistent in what they demand, so if the MAX fails to deliver it is up to Boeing alone.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:42 pm

Will this happen or will the NMA be postponed till the economic climate will turn again? I have a feeling that the current and especially the near future will be very harsh for airlines, think post 9-11 combined with Sars and the downturn of 2008.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
I wasn't talking about Boeing taking another loan a months ago, but airlines investing in new fleets.
They need to save themselves, e.g. from the Corona aftermath + Boeing MAX situation.

Boeing also needs to save itself, and investing tens of $billions to create a clean sheet me-too airliner while destroying the value of the $billions it and its partners have invested in MAX and LEAP is not going to get that done. Telling WN, FR, et al that they need to wait 4-6 years while Boeing develops the me-too airliner to get replacements for their aging NGs also isn't going to get it done. The airlines have a lot invested in MAX and no viable Plan B. Now the financial community is even more invested in MAX's recovery. Hopes for a diversion to a clean sheet me too replacement make no sense.



Yes, a "Me-too-aircraft" approach is not only ridiculous but also not a Boeing policy.

Whether MC Donnel Douglas or Airbus, Boeing has always had a different approach in terms of proposals for the market. Suggesting a replacement for 737MAX with LD3-45W seems a poor approach, but more desperate.

The 737MAX is appreciated otherwise Air Canada for exemple, would never have returned to Boeing. This is proof that the 737MAX also has its role especially the MAX-8 which has two additional rows of seats compared to the A320neo for example.

But Keesje COULD be right because 2030 is not so far away, but also because the COVID19 crisis has proven that it can increase a financial crisis. We have the feeling that most airlines are in asphyxiation even before the COVID19 crisis.

I really think (IMHO) we should think differently for the next few years.

No "Me-too-aircraft" for Boeing but certainly something different. In reality I would better see 2-new narrowbody aircraft for the market and respond more in depth, this would be optimal being as a replacement for the 737MAX with an HYPER efficient-new 5-abreast (2-3) larger than the A220 / ex- CSeries but a few inches narrower than the 737MAX.
Which in my opinion is not a "Me-too - aircraft" but while targeting the market correctly.

If this would be the same capacity of the MAX-8 being a long and thin tube which would make the A320neo too heavy and even an A320.5 neo could not change much.

On the contrary, there would therefore be a smaller derivative which would be an effective substitute for the MAX-7.

Then a 6-ab. (3-3) larger than the A321neo and other derivative can be a new NMA approach being "a Wide Narrowbody Cabin Concept", which would carry 1-class 275 passengers and 2-class 210 passengers.

This type of product offers something that is not "me-too-aircraft" while targeting the market in depth.

I expect Boeing makes the right choice by 2021-2022 when we emerge from this crisis for an EIS in 2030 ...
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:52 pm

Good lord, why did this thread have to turn into such a trash the 737-MAX thread? Aren't there already enough of those?

I thought it was about the next clean sheet paper airplane from Boeing?
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:30 pm

Reddevil556 wrote:
TObound wrote:
In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.


What edge does the 225 have on Boeing? It nearly directly competes with the 320.


225 would have better fuel burn and fewer seats to fill than the Max 8. If we assume that filling Max 8 sized aircraft is going to be more difficult for many carriers for at least the next half decade, the 225 becomes a very attractive mainline aircraft.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:38 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Good lord, why did this thread have to turn into such a trash the 737-MAX thread? Aren't there already enough of those?

I thought it was about the next clean sheet paper airplane from Boeing?


Hmm :scratchchin: ok.

Well maybe Boeing will start with a clean sheet of paper again, but also use some existing technology and infrastructure to reduce investment and time to market.

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Source: keesje

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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:07 pm

keesje wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Good lord, why did this thread have to turn into such a trash the 737-MAX thread? Aren't there already enough of those?

I thought it was about the next clean sheet paper airplane from Boeing?


Hmm :scratchchin: ok.

Well maybe Boeing will start with a clean sheet of paper again, but also use some existing technology and infrastructure to reduce investment and time to market.

Image
Source: keesje

:wink2:


And use what? Aluminum?

The 737 replacement almost certainly will be a composite airplane, won't it?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:12 pm

Not certain at all, not unless you can do cold curing.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:17 pm

UA748i wrote:
keesje wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Good lord, why did this thread have to turn into such a trash the 737-MAX thread? Aren't there already enough of those?

I thought it was about the next clean sheet paper airplane from Boeing?


Hmm :scratchchin: ok.

Well maybe Boeing will start with a clean sheet of paper again, but also use some existing technology and infrastructure to reduce investment and time to market.

Image
Source: keesje

:wink2:


And use what? Aluminum?

The 737 replacement almost certainly will be a composite airplane, won't it?

Hasn't it been repeated over and over than composite fuselage are not that effective in narrow body aircraft?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Will this happen or will the NMA be postponed till the economic climate will turn again? I have a feeling that the current and especially the near future will be very harsh for airlines, think post 9-11 combined with Sars and the downturn of 2008.


I think the NMA has an even better case going forward. If airlines find it harder to fill a 789 and the 788, 321LR/XLR aren't as cost efficient, a 200-seater TATL/TPAC hauler starts looking fantastic. Can replace lots of 767s, 330s and even some 77As on routes with capacity downgrades.

Now, whether Boeing can execute in a profitable way? That's a difficult and different question.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:25 pm

In a traditional oval, it's probably a wash between CFRP and aluminum at the moment, but Airbus and Boeing have gained knowledge from the A350 and 787 which may play a role. Boeing also has been working with Lamborghini and the University of Washington for years on CFRP applications for aerospace and automotive including things like "cold curing" (as seahawk mentioned).

The "wide oval" fuselage Boeing was originally pursuing might have favored CFRP.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:02 pm

TObound wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Will this happen or will the NMA be postponed till the economic climate will turn again? I have a feeling that the current and especially the near future will be very harsh for airlines, think post 9-11 combined with Sars and the downturn of 2008.


I think the NMA has an even better case going forward. If airlines find it harder to fill a 789 and the 788, 321LR/XLR aren't as cost efficient, a 200-seater TATL/TPAC hauler starts looking fantastic. Can replace lots of 767s, 330s and even some 77As on routes with capacity downgrades.

Now, whether Boeing can execute in a profitable way? That's a difficult and different question.


I was thinking just about the same. Maybe the market is awaiting for us, after CoronaCrisis, can render obsolete the higher spectrum of current aircraft, even the most efficient ones, because they are too big, but that would be a scary scenery.
Then, there would be a niche for a smaller long ranger that could replace not only the 767, but even the newer 772/3/X-787-350, because of a new better standard of efficiency/size, but that could mean many big companies, (with a lot of big aircraft orders made, by the way) could fall.
And it would be difficult that they didn't drag Boeing in their way down. So, IMHO, that seems a double edge strategy for Boeing. Even for Airbus to do something similar.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:19 pm

iberiadc852 wrote:
TObound wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Will this happen or will the NMA be postponed till the economic climate will turn again? I have a feeling that the current and especially the near future will be very harsh for airlines, think post 9-11 combined with Sars and the downturn of 2008.


I think the NMA has an even better case going forward. If airlines find it harder to fill a 789 and the 788, 321LR/XLR aren't as cost efficient, a 200-seater TATL/TPAC hauler starts looking fantastic. Can replace lots of 767s, 330s and even some 77As on routes with capacity downgrades.

Now, whether Boeing can execute in a profitable way? That's a difficult and different question.


I was thinking just about the same. Maybe the market is awaiting for us, after CoronaCrisis, can render obsolete the higher spectrum of current aircraft, even the most efficient ones, because they are too big, but that would be a scary scenery.
Then, there would be a niche for a smaller long ranger that could replace not only the 767, but even the newer 772/3/X-787-350, because of a new better standard of efficiency/size, but that could mean many big companies, (with a lot of big aircraft orders made, by the way) could fall.
And it would be difficult that they didn't drag Boeing in their way down. So, IMHO, that seems a double edge strategy for Boeing. Even for Airbus to do something similar.


There is one problem with that line of thought, a new plane takes time to develop and certify. Let´s say about 6-7 years. If the demand has not gone up again to fill 787s in 7 years, the whole industry will have no money for new planes. If the demand has gone up, Boeing is just competing with themselves.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:56 pm

UA748i wrote:
And use what? Aluminum?

The 737 replacement almost certainly will be a composite airplane, won't it?


At this point in time, I certainly wouldn't bet against a conventional aluminium type fuselage and composite wings.

IMHO, it's not clear cut if the benefits of a CFRP fuselage will work on a narrowbody that might be produced at upwards of 50 per month. I see more industrialisation challenges than technical ones. If the aim is to produce frames as cheaply as possible, aluminium could easily 'win'.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:01 pm

seahawk wrote:
iberiadc852 wrote:
TObound wrote:

I think the NMA has an even better case going forward. If airlines find it harder to fill a 789 and the 788, 321LR/XLR aren't as cost efficient, a 200-seater TATL/TPAC hauler starts looking fantastic. Can replace lots of 767s, 330s and even some 77As on routes with capacity downgrades.

Now, whether Boeing can execute in a profitable way? That's a difficult and different question.


I was thinking just about the same. Maybe the market is awaiting for us, after CoronaCrisis, can render obsolete the higher spectrum of current aircraft, even the most efficient ones, because they are too big, but that would be a scary scenery.
Then, there would be a niche for a smaller long ranger that could replace not only the 767, but even the newer 772/3/X-787-350, because of a new better standard of efficiency/size, but that could mean many big companies, (with a lot of big aircraft orders made, by the way) could fall.
And it would be difficult that they didn't drag Boeing in their way down. So, IMHO, that seems a double edge strategy for Boeing. Even for Airbus to do something similar.


There is one problem with that line of thought, a new plane takes time to develop and certify. Let´s say about 6-7 years. If the demand has not gone up again to fill 787s in 7 years, the whole industry will have no money for new planes. If the demand has gone up, Boeing is just competing with themselves.


In some way you are right; on the other hand, these are the situations where there are not entry barriers for the newcomers; just the oppossite.
So if that scenery became true, an important part of the market would come from new companies who are not lagging with an obsolete infraestructure, and could make use ot their status to be more competitive than the ones before. Like what new internet travel agencies did with traditional ones.
Anyway, I'm not saying it will happen, because, all in all I imagine it would be a mess of a market. I was just pointing out that is the kind of window that gets open when these dramatic changes occur.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:51 pm

keesje wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Good lord, why did this thread have to turn into such a trash the 737-MAX thread? Aren't there already enough of those?

I thought it was about the next clean sheet paper airplane from Boeing?


Hmm :scratchchin: ok.

:wink2:


I think you missed my cheeky humor.....:wink2:
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:05 am

WayexTDI wrote:
UA748i wrote:
keesje wrote:

Hmm :scratchchin: ok.

Well maybe Boeing will start with a clean sheet of paper again, but also use some existing technology and infrastructure to reduce investment and time to market.

Image
Source: keesje

:wink2:


And use what? Aluminum?

The 737 replacement almost certainly will be a composite airplane, won't it?

Hasn't it been repeated over and over than composite fuselage are not that effective in narrow body aircraft?


Has it?

A real shame that a narrowbody composite type has never been made before to be absolutely sure

Image
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:35 am

UA748i wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Hasn't it been repeated over and over than composite fuselage are not that effective in narrow body aircraft?

A real shame that a narrowbody composite type has never been made before to be absolutely sure

Image

C Series / A220 has metallic fuse and CFRP wings.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:45 am

iberiadc852 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
iberiadc852 wrote:

I was thinking just about the same. Maybe the market is awaiting for us, after CoronaCrisis, can render obsolete the higher spectrum of current aircraft, even the most efficient ones, because they are too big, but that would be a scary scenery.
Then, there would be a niche for a smaller long ranger that could replace not only the 767, but even the newer 772/3/X-787-350, because of a new better standard of efficiency/size, but that could mean many big companies, (with a lot of big aircraft orders made, by the way) could fall.
And it would be difficult that they didn't drag Boeing in their way down. So, IMHO, that seems a double edge strategy for Boeing. Even for Airbus to do something similar.


There is one problem with that line of thought, a new plane takes time to develop and certify. Let´s say about 6-7 years. If the demand has not gone up again to fill 787s in 7 years, the whole industry will have no money for new planes. If the demand has gone up, Boeing is just competing with themselves.


In some way you are right; on the other hand, these are the situations where there are not entry barriers for the newcomers; just the oppossite.
So if that scenery became true, an important part of the market would come from new companies who are not lagging with an obsolete infraestructure, and could make use ot their status to be more competitive than the ones before. Like what new internet travel agencies did with traditional ones.
Anyway, I'm not saying it will happen, because, all in all I imagine it would be a mess of a market. I was just pointing out that is the kind of window that gets open when these dramatic changes occur.


There is no disruptive technology like the internet available to the airline industry (yet). All possible ways to run an airline have been tried. You can not change the experience for your customer as revolutionary as the internet did for travel agencies. The next thing will be electric and hybrid-flight but this will be a thing for short routes first and might even force a return of the hub and spoke system, which then would favour large widebodies for long routes.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:26 am

UA748i wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
UA748i wrote:

And use what? Aluminum?

The 737 replacement almost certainly will be a composite airplane, won't it?

Hasn't it been repeated over and over than composite fuselage are not that effective in narrow body aircraft?


Has it?

A real shame that a narrowbody composite type has never been made before to be absolutely sure

Image

Yeah... that narrowbody fuselage is made out of the thirteenth element of the periodic table, a.k.a. aluminum.
Old myths are hard to die.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:31 am

It has been a long time since I active studied differences between Al and CRFP fuselages. What I remember is that from a strenght standpoint you could go to real thin light fuselage skins. But it would be strong enough to withstand hail and other external impacts. So you end end using a thicker skin, killing the weight advantage. Plus is still more expensive to produce, maintain and repair.

So far CRFP pays off for bigger aircraft, not for smaller ones. Also production rates required to make a NB profitable are hard to efficiently match with CRFP production speed. And Alu fuselage materials and production technology developped, got better, faster. upping the bar..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:19 am

The properties of the material are not everything, the manufacturing plays a huge part as well. And additive manufacturing did give a huge boost to the competitiveness of metal alloys.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:21 pm

TObound wrote:
Reddevil556 wrote:
TObound wrote:
In a world where passenger numbers are dropping, smaller frames are valuable. Airbus' buyout of the CSeries looks even more attractive. And if they have any capital left, pursuing the 225 to gain a real edge on Boeing makes sense. They just have wait till the Max is flying again so as not to spook Boeing into launching the NSA.

Embraer also just became more valuable to Boeing. There's going to be a lot more flying going forward where the Max 7 is too big.


What edge does the 225 have on Boeing? It nearly directly competes with the 320.


225 would have better fuel burn and fewer seats to fill than the Max 8. If we assume that filling Max 8 sized aircraft is going to be more difficult for many carriers for at least the next half decade, the 225 becomes a very attractive mainline aircraft.


And the exact same statement could be made for the NEO. Which is still my point. Why would one company have two competing products available at the same time? Prior to COVID-19 320 NEOs were dominating the market. 225 is viable option for 2025 at the earliest. This is pure speculation, but you don’t have to be a business genius to figure out that replacing a hot commodity with an unknown is pointless. If the 320 NEO was a flop then.......maybe. There simply isn’t a business case right now.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:48 pm

Here is a post I made last year. Boeing can tweak the market or goal of the original 797 design while keeping the existing work.

viewtopic.php?t=1411903&start=850

"Very doubtful on the NMA-7ER.

To produce an extended range model would mean they have extra headroom built into the original design. That means the original aircraft needs to be heavier than it needs to be and the engines need to be derated for the initial model.

The two 797 models will be optimised to the highest level. Both will share the same MTOW and same engines with very high commonality. Boeing will simply add and remove frames to give more range or more cabin area.

One could equally call the 797-6 a shrink or the 797-7 a stretch. The second size will be very cheap to develop as the changes will be extremely small.

I do expect a third 797 fuselage length to be produced in the future depending on how the market responds. We have a growing point to point trend and gate shortages in Asia so it be stretched or shrunk.

If the point to point market really takes off airlines might buy the 797-6's in huge numbers with new long thin routes. Boeing may produce a further shrink 797-5 with 6000+nm range to fill demand. If the 797-5 was two thirds of the size of the 787-8 but also had two thirds of the trip cost then the 797-5 could be a useful addition with a common pilot rating.

Alternatively the 797-7 might sell more with big demand flying between hubs. Boeing may then produce a further stretch getting close to 787-8 in capacity but with extreme short haul efficiency."

The way the market is downsizing it seems a 6000nm transpacific model might actually have greater demand than a 3500nm stretched model for short thick routes. All Boeing needs to do is remove a few metres of fuselage.

Boeing could also easily reduce the base model lengths of the two launch models. Instead of the 797-6 and 797-7 the models could be effectively 797-5.5 and 797-6.5.


As the existing two models were fairly close together in seating capacity and range another option would be instead of producing three models Boeing could increase the size and range difference between the two models.

We had the following specs:
797-6: 228 seat (2 class) 5200nm
797-7: 267 seat (2 class) 4500nm

We could move them further apart
797-6: 212 seat (2 class) 5800nm
797-7: 275 seat (2 class) 4200nm

The same MTOW, wing and engines can be used.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:11 am

RJMAZ wrote:


I believe there are people at Boeing who think the same. The word I got from my friend was that the program was "suspended" and that they were closing up each part of the project with appropriate notes and comments for someone to pick it up again in a few years or so if the market looked suitable as there was still belief that it could be needed in the future.

Have a great day,
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:57 am

The "797" Office, must be closed for several months now due to COVID19 crisis
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:04 pm

2175301 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:


I believe there are people at Boeing who think the same. The word I got from my friend was that the program was "suspended" and that they were closing up each part of the project with appropriate notes and comments for someone to pick it up again in a few years or so if the market looked suitable as there was still belief that it could be needed in the future.

Have a great day,



That's Sad. Sounds like no new metal in the 2020's.

Here come the 737-8ER and 737-10ER.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:38 pm

morrisond wrote:
2175301 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:


I believe there are people at Boeing who think the same. The word I got from my friend was that the program was "suspended" and that they were closing up each part of the project with appropriate notes and comments for someone to pick it up again in a few years or so if the market looked suitable as there was still belief that it could be needed in the future.

Have a great day,



That's Sad. Sounds like no new metal in the 2020's.

Here come the 737-8ER and 737-10ER.



Any NMA will see 2026-2027 first deliveries, even if the federal government pumps in $15 Billion today.

Nobody knows if the market late this decade has recovered or changed.

When specifying the MoM, NMA, NSA, FSA, the main question is:

Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" marketsegment the coming 10-15 years?

If the answer is "hopefully", "maybe" or "no", the NMA plans are in the bin..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:28 pm

keesje wrote:
morrisond wrote:
2175301 wrote:

I believe there are people at Boeing who think the same. The word I got from my friend was that the program was "suspended" and that they were closing up each part of the project with appropriate notes and comments for someone to pick it up again in a few years or so if the market looked suitable as there was still belief that it could be needed in the future.

Have a great day,



That's Sad. Sounds like no new metal in the 2020's.

Here come the 737-8ER and 737-10ER.



Any NMA will see 2026-2027 first deliveries, even if the federal government pumps in $15 Billion today.

Nobody knows if the market late this decade has recovered or changed.

When specifying the MoM, NMA, NSA, FSA, the main question is:

Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" marketsegment the coming 10-15 years?

If the answer is "hopefully", "maybe" or "no", the NMA plans are in the bin..



When they shutter the office and don't expect anything for a few years - no way we will see anything in 6-7 years. Even if they decided to start 6 months from now - given it now sounds like a complete new Cockpit Philosophy - next decade is most likely now. That won't be a 12 month flight campaign with a whole new cockpit philosophy.

We might actually see a prototype this type flying around with the new Cockpit before they decide on the shape/successor to the 737/757 markets.

ER versions of the -8 and -10 should be fine until then.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:56 pm

morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
morrisond wrote:


That's Sad. Sounds like no new metal in the 2020's.

Here come the 737-8ER and 737-10ER.



Any NMA will see 2026-2027 first deliveries, even if the federal government pumps in $15 Billion today.

Nobody knows if the market late this decade has recovered or changed.

When specifying the MoM, NMA, NSA, FSA, the main question is:

Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" marketsegment the coming 10-15 years?

If the answer is "hopefully", "maybe" or "no", the NMA plans are in the bin..



When they shutter the office and don't expect anything for a few years - no way we will see anything in 6-7 years. Even if they decided to start 6 months from now - given it now sounds like a complete new Cockpit Philosophy - next decade is most likely now. That won't be a 12 month flight campaign with a whole new cockpit philosophy.

We might actually see a prototype this type flying around with the new Cockpit before they decide on the shape/successor to the 737/757 markets.

ER versions of the -8 and -10 should be fine until then.


Dropping production rates means that both A and B will be losing money and need to shrink. With all passenger production lines likely slowing down, I wouldn’t expect any New product development. No 737-10ER, no NMA, no A322, no A220-500, etc. There isn’t money coming in to pay for development programs for commercial aircraft.

R&D investment will probably go those who can afford it. Freighters and military derivatives likely will get priority for now.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:57 pm

Boeing may be going like most newspapers, smaller, smaller. Less content as it has ever fewer plane models as best in particular niches. And things might pick up sometime in the 30s?? That is not a business plan. Its a going out of business recipe. Slowly. Airbus could take advantage by weighting profits toward where it has the better plane for the niche, and cutting those profits in the few niches Boeing rules. Airbus does not have to be particularly predatory about this, it just will be an inevitable market result.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:10 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:


Any NMA will see 2026-2027 first deliveries, even if the federal government pumps in $15 Billion today.

Nobody knows if the market late this decade has recovered or changed.

When specifying the MoM, NMA, NSA, FSA, the main question is:

Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" marketsegment the coming 10-15 years?

If the answer is "hopefully", "maybe" or "no", the NMA plans are in the bin..



When they shutter the office and don't expect anything for a few years - no way we will see anything in 6-7 years. Even if they decided to start 6 months from now - given it now sounds like a complete new Cockpit Philosophy - next decade is most likely now. That won't be a 12 month flight campaign with a whole new cockpit philosophy.

We might actually see a prototype this type flying around with the new Cockpit before they decide on the shape/successor to the 737/757 markets.

ER versions of the -8 and -10 should be fine until then.


Dropping production rates means that both A and B will be losing money and need to shrink. With all passenger production lines likely slowing down, I wouldn’t expect any New product development. No 737-10ER, no NMA, no A322, no A220-500, etc. There isn’t money coming in to pay for development programs for commercial aircraft.

R&D investment will probably go those who can afford it. Freighters and military derivatives likely will get priority for now.


Dont forget tho, 25% of the Airbus owners are in for the long run and not for the short money making and can push towards new developments just for the sake of keeping staff employed.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:27 pm

There seems to be a latent background assumption that 737s will be leaving the production lines with an acceptable margin for the next decade. Because they always have.

We should allow ourselves to place a big questionmark there & add a plan B.

If you hold back your horses, wait for better times, see what the airlines really need in the new situation, talk to all your customers to fully understand, work on closing the business case, you might very well be too late. The ship sailed, you're out.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:44 pm

Have you looked at the predictions? More and more analysts expect air travel to not return to a normal state before 2022 and demand to not reach 2019 levels again before 2024-2027 and that only if there are no additional negative factors and if the virus is of no concern for the customers at the end of 2021. Which means a working vaccine would have to be applied world wide. New airliners are not needed at the moment. Corona was Black Swan event way worse than 9-11 and the financial crisis combined.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:27 pm

seahawk wrote:
Have you looked at the predictions? More and more analysts expect air travel to not return to a normal state before 2022 and demand to not reach 2019 levels again before 2024-2027 and that only if there are no additional negative factors and if the virus is of no concern for the customers at the end of 2021. Which means a working vaccine would have to be applied world wide. New airliners are not needed at the moment. Corona was Black Swan event way worse than 9-11 and the financial crisis combined.


I think you are right. If airlines aren’t growing, they don’t need more planes, so they won’t buy new planes. They can use the airplanes that they have and retire the older or less efficient planes. I don’t see airlines buying new planes when the price on used airplanes is collapsing.

Research and development is paid for from profit. The doom and gloom crowd can say the ship is sailing and the end is near. Fortunately Boeing has military and space programs to keep them afloat. Those are the programs likely to want new products and thus money will probably go there.

I have my doubts that Airbus will debt fund development that will put Boeing too far behind. Boeing already leads widebodies. Airbus is working on stabilizing their production since the A220 is losing money (source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html) , A321neo production is way behind schedule, and the A321XLR is still 3 years away. In general Airbus isn’t in a good financial position to launch a new airplane either after losing more money in 2019 than Boeing did, so Boeing taking time to see how the market changes probably makes sense. Airline consolidations could change what the next plane looks like.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:48 pm

keesje wrote:
Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" market segment the coming 10-15 years?


Absolutely. The 737-7 and 737-8 are optimized for that market.

Where the MAX starts to stumble is the 200-240 seats up to 3000NM market segment, but even there it can compete fairly well on the lower-end with the 737-9.
 
ptcflyer
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:09 pm

All I got to say is that I am glad Boeing's main operation is in the Pacific Northwest where there are lots of trees that can help them make lots of new clean sheets of paper! That's all I got to say.
 
ptcflyer
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:12 pm

Hmmm...If things are as bad as I am fearing... I see the potential for BoeingBus. or AirBoeingBus. Or United European Aircraft Manufacturer or some such combination.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:08 pm

Stitch wrote:
keesje wrote:
Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" market segment the coming 10-15 years?


Absolutely. The 737-7 and 737-8 are optimized for that market.

Where the MAX starts to stumble is the 200-240 seats up to 3000NM market segment, but even there it can compete fairly well on the lower-end with the 737-9.


Orders for the 737-7 seemed non existent even before the Corona crisis. The 737-8 seems to have enough quality problems to ground the worldwide fleet for a year, stop production and fire the CEO.

The -9 didn't hold it's own, that's why the -10 was launched.

Altogether it wise to launch a plan B instead of getting caught in the headlights afterall.

The signals that we got was that Boeing indeed burried NMA and looks at a single aisles less capable aircraft. Realists might call that a 737 replacement.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:44 am

keesje wrote:
Any NMA will see 2026-2027 first deliveries, even if the federal government pumps in $15 Billion today.

Nobody knows if the market late this decade has recovered or changed.

Point to point routes are increasing and everyone is downgauging. Covid19 has just accelerated this trend. There is big demand for narrowbody aircraft that can cross the Atlantic. This will not change. The demand for smaller aircraft that can cross the Pacific is also huge this is why the 787 has sold so well opening new Pacific routes and replacing 777 And 747-400 routes.

An aircraft two thirds of the size of the 787 that can fly 80% of the 787 routes would sell extremely well.

keesje wrote:
Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" marketsegment the coming 10-15 years?

If the answer is "hopefully", "maybe" or "no", the NMA plans are in the bin..

It can and it is already slightly more efficient than the Airbus model due to the slightly lighter/tighter fuselage. The crashes will be long forgotten after the market recovers. Most will be nervously listening out for any passenger coughing, the last thing in their mind will be the aircraft crashing.

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