Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 856
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:06 pm

How large is an aircraft could the Boring-Embraer partnership realistically build?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:40 pm

keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

The Airbus backlog has also started to drop with huge rate cuts.

keesje wrote:
The NMA is shelved. Boeing needs a new NB for the second half of this decade, if the 737MAX recovers.

The NMA has been paused due to the virus. It might be delayed a year. The 737MAX has a backlog of over 4000 aircraft. Between 2012 and 2018 it averaged 650 orders per year. If it averages only 300 orders per year and at a production rate of 50 aircraft per month the backlog will run out in 2033.

keesje wrote:
- AKH cargo options

The containers add weight and allow less bags for any given area. The fuselage cross section has to become larger which adds weight and drag.

keesje wrote:
- a versions up to 250 seats realistically

The 737-8 has proven to hit the 200 seat sweetspot nicely. With the market recovering and airlines downgauging the 737MAX is the best option.

keesje wrote:
- a version that can do up to 4500NM realistically

4500nm range requires a higher MTOW, larger wings and engines. This reduces efficiency compared to a lighter 3500nm range 737MAX.

keesje wrote:
- an ultra efficient 199 seat single class < 4hrs version

This is exactly what the lightweight 737MAX is. Airbus on the other hand has the A320 that is too small and the A321 too big. Low cost carriers can fill the 737-8 with 199 seats to maximise 4 flight attendants. This is a well known weakness in the Airbus lineup, you know this, which is why you often post the A320plus to make an Airbus 200 seater.

keesje wrote:
- engine choice

History shows otherwise. The 787 and A320 suffered severe problems with one of its engines. The 737MAX, A350, A330NEO and 777W have had no major issues.

keesje wrote:
- future higher BPR ready configuration

Higher bypass ratio adds weight and increases drag. The 737MAX is more efficient per seat than the A320 even with its lower bypass ratio.

keesje wrote:
- fully fly by wire

This is optional and your opinion.

keesje wrote:
- beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin

Once the 737MAX flies again and it is deemed safe then it is safe.

keesje wrote:
- modular production, assembly that can be spread out globally

The 737MAX production line is fully mature, low cost and low risk. Being in one location gives excellent economies of scale. Spreading out assembly across the globe adds risk and increases cost. Airbus does this only for political reasons.

Everything you posted is entirely wrong and is exactly what Boeing shouldn't do.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2662
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:48 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 73.article

The NMA is shelved. Boeing needs a new NB for the second half of this decade, if the 737MAX recovers.

If not: even more.

Compared to the 737MAX an all new FSA should feature
- AKH cargo options
- a versions up to 250 seats realistically
- a version that can do up to 4500NM realistically
- an ultra efficient 199 seat single class < 4hrs version
- engine choice
- future higher BPR ready configuration
- fully fly by wire
- beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin
- modular production, assembly that can be spread out globally
- a few strong USP's setting it apart from the A321.

Image
Source: keesje / Boeing

Do you mean with “full fly by wire” that it cannot be overridden by the pilots? It should also have side sticks. But “beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin” sounds VERY UNREALISTIC when you look at current Boeing management in my opinion. I’m not so sure if Calhoun will change the culture at Boeing from greed to innovation.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Your photo is of a NASA concept truss wing from 2016.

[img]https://hips.hearstapps.com/pop.h-cdn.co/assets/16/07/3200x1600/landscape-1455901118-img-8248.JPG?resize=480:*[/img
It’s the Boeing TTBW. Not a NASA aircraft.


Why would it need side sticks? A back driven Control Column/Wheel gives much better feedback to the pilot on what the aircraft is actually doing.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:54 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
A truss braced wing could be the next narrowbody since it would allow more slender wings and reduce drag. Since it would fly a little slower, it certainly wouldn’t be a 4500nm airplane. It also is conceptually a 150 seat plane, not a 250 seat plane.

You are 100% correct. The truss design was always proposed as a short haul slightly slower aircraft to replace the 737 after 2030. The slower speed actually creates a larger gap which the faster 797 was meant to fill. Boeing never planned to have one aircraft family to cover 150 to 250 seats and right up to 4500nm.

Kessje wants Boeing to create something overcapable, overweight and inefficient on routes under 1000nm. Like a 757NEO it would not sell.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
If an airline wants to fly 250 passengers 4500nm, the 787 is probably the beat choice. United’s average 787-9 flight was 4700nm and has a capacity of 252 seats.

This was the goal of the 797 family. Two thirds of the size and range of 787 family. With a slow truss design in the picture it creates an unrealistic MOM gap that makes the 797 an important bridge.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Why did you credit yourself with the image? Are you working on that project?

I too would like to know the reason for this. I am fairly certain it is an attempt to boost his credibility with new members as it draw attention to.the post. Existing members obviously know he posts incorrect information on a regular basis.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13831
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:58 pm

This and every configuration has it's ups and downs.

A TTBW like configuration looks weak for cargo, landing gear stowage, wing fuel capacity and impractical truss.

Great for aerodynamics, engine flexibility and ground access. It's always trade-off's https://youtu.be/GLXk7pZFPPk?t=155

Usually we end up in recognizeable compromises.

Image
source: keesje / Boeing

But we can leave good design and configuration to specialist teams. The market specification has to be clear.

Boeing wasted a lot of time there, chasing old patents that might look nice, but weren't what the airlines are looking for.

Time to summarize everything and show leadership.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 5 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
If Boeing does not fully fix the MAX, they do not even need to think about offering a new design. Or do you believe that any sane airline would be interested to sign a contract for the new plane in that case? "Look friendly airline CEO, we totally messed up the refreshed version of our old 737 and we could not fix it. Would you now please order a huge number of our new 797 which will be an all new design, with a new cockpit design, new production technologies and much superior efficiency and be ready in 5 years. We are sure you would not mind flying the 737NG in the meantime and not order any Airbuses,, mkay. "

Truth. That CEO will also have to sign on to watch their competitor fly LEAP/GTF engined aircraft while they stay with CFM56 and then pay more for the 797 due to the immense R&D and factory bills and wait even longer for the production ramp up to occur.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:49 pm

keesje wrote:
This and every configuration has it's ups and downs.

A TTBW like configuration looks weak for cargo, landing gear stowage, wing fuel capacity and impractical truss.

Yes the TTBW would need a larger aircraft with more fuel capacity, higher speed and more cargo. Say hello to the NMA/797 small widebody.

keesje wrote:
But we can leave good design and configuration to specialist teams. The market specification has to be clear.

Like a specialist team in Seatle that managed to produce an aircraft with 5% better fuel burn per seat than the A320 and managed to hit the 200 seat capacity sweetspot.

keesje wrote:
Boeing wasted a lot of time there, chasing old patents that might look nice, but weren't what the airlines are looking for.

Boeing spent time asking what the market wanted and nailed the 787. Airbus failed with the A380. Had Boeing not stuffed up MCAS then Boeing would have nailed the 737MAX. MCAS is a very small part of the aircraft and the rest of the aircraft is solid.

keesje wrote:
Time to summarize everything and show leadership

Time to start delivering 737MAX aircraft at a nice profit for the next 15 years. The last 12 months will be just a bump in the road.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:05 pm

reidar76 wrote:
I also think we will see many more 737 MAX cancellations, and total delivered 737 MAX might never reach 5000 aircraft before production is ended, maybe around 2030-2032.

That sounds like business as usual at Boeing.

The 737NG was in passenger production for 22 years.

That means the 737MAX would end production in 2038 at the very best. I highly doubt even Boeing expected the 737MAX to last past 2035. The 737MAX was always meant to be a cheap short term solution so it is highly likely that Boeing did not expect it to last 22 years like the NG.

Ending production in 2032 would still be a good 15 years.
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 5260
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:11 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

The Airbus backlog has also started to drop with huge rate cuts.

That doesn't even start to make sense. :rotfl:
 
StTim
Posts: 3685
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:15 pm

It is going to be some time until either framer has the cash to develop a brand new family of jets.
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1862
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:04 pm

I think Boeing will be looking at survival for the next few years before they start looking at launching new products in a space where the demand is iffy in good times. They will concentrate on actually getting the 737MAX and the 777X produced and delivered and paying off the costs of the delays first.

April Becomes Worst Month Ever For Boeing—So Far

So why would Boeing seek government aid? The company ended 2019 with more than $27 billion in debt, doubling the red ink from the year before. By mid-March, before credit markets froze, it had newly opened and then fully drawn down a credit line totaling nearly $14 billion. Boeing Commercial Airplanes alone is burning through more than $4 billion a month to bankroll itself and some suppliers, starting with Spirit AeroSystems and General Electric Aviation, and it faces other big bills such as the $4.2 billion acquisition of most of Embraer’s commercial division and $4 billion in debt repayments. Analysts say Boeing could have to nearly double its debt again this year, especially if the grounded and halted 737 MAX is not recertified until late this year due to further delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.


Add in that you will surely see severe reductions in the 787 deliveries for the foreseeable future as well which will hurt the deferred costs still outstanding on the program or the future profits, whichever way you want to term it.

morrisond wrote:
Airbus would be smart to use this crisis to consolidate in one or two locations to maximize efficiency on an 737 like moving line and reduce the amount of labour hours (and number of workers) to build each frame.

Assuming MAX RTS I would have to guess Boeing will make more profit at a line rate of 20-30 MAX per month than Airbus will at 40 A320 per month.


Do you have any sources or figures for any of this? How many labour hours does it take Boeing compared to Airbus to build their respective frames? And how do you guess they will make more profit on an aircraft that is racking up billions in cost due to the delays that it will have to pay back and at a lower rate?


StTim wrote:
It is going to be some time until either framer has the cash to develop a brand new family of jets.


Good timing for Airbus really. You don't want to be spending cash right now trying to certify an aircraft where it will just be costing you money before deliveries are realized. Add in to that the slowdown from airlines in the coming years I agree that neither will be in a rush to launch anything in the next 5 years at least. So we are looking at more than a decade before a new program is ready to start flying.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27088
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:15 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
How large is an aircraft could the Boring-Embraer partnership realistically build?


I have heard the partnership conditions are for 150 seats or less.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 178
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:42 pm

scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The Airbus delivery centre is in Spain for all aircraft except the A380.


Sorry, but this is just wrong. All Airbus civilian planes are delivered from Toulouse, Hamburg, Tianjin and Mobile. None from Spain.


:checkmark: thats correct if you add Mirabel
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19034
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:46 pm

oldJoe wrote:
scbriml wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The Airbus delivery centre is in Spain for all aircraft except the A380.


Sorry, but this is just wrong. All Airbus civilian planes are delivered from Toulouse, Hamburg, Tianjin and Mobile. None from Spain.


:checkmark: thats correct if you add Mirabel


Yeah, my bad. I keep forgetting about the A220! :oops:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:49 pm

morrisond wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 73.article

The NMA is shelved. Boeing needs a new NB for the second half of this decade, if the 737MAX recovers.

If not: even more.

Compared to the 737MAX an all new FSA should feature
- AKH cargo options
- a versions up to 250 seats realistically
- a version that can do up to 4500NM realistically
- an ultra efficient 199 seat single class < 4hrs version
- engine choice
- future higher BPR ready configuration
- fully fly by wire
- beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin
- modular production, assembly that can be spread out globally
- a few strong USP's setting it apart from the A321.

Image
Source: keesje / Boeing

Do you mean with “full fly by wire” that it cannot be overridden by the pilots? It should also have side sticks. But “beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin” sounds VERY UNREALISTIC when you look at current Boeing management in my opinion. I’m not so sure if Calhoun will change the culture at Boeing from greed to innovation.

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Your photo is of a NASA concept truss wing from 2016.

[img]https://hips.hearstapps.com/pop.h-cdn.co/assets/16/07/3200x1600/landscape-1455901118-img-8248.JPG?resize=480:*[/img
It’s the Boeing TTBW. Not a NASA aircraft.


Why would it need side sticks? A back driven Control Column/Wheel gives much better feedback to the pilot on what the aircraft is actually doing.

Because, at least in my opinion, side sticks are the future. The aviation market is moving to side sticks. Most clean-sheets today use side sticks. Look at the A220, KC390, Legacy 450, Legacy 500, Praetor 500, Praetor 600, the MC-21, the C919, and pretty much all fighter jets today. They use side sticks. As far as I know they only major aviation company that has never used side sticks is Boeing.

Side sticks save a lot of weight and space, they are very clearly the future. In my opinion a yoke is so uncomfortable.

Does somebody know of a clean sheet aircraft that is not GA and not a Boeing aircraft that uses a yoke? I thought almost every clean-sheet today has a side stick, please correct me if I’m wrong.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19716
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:58 pm

Folks, the topic is the NMA.

It is not the MAX. (off topic)
It is not Coronavirus nor any possible bail outs.

Please limit discussion to the NMA and discuss other topics on their respective threads and keep politics out of civil aviation.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27088
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:29 pm

Moving NSA/NMA/FSA to side-sticks probably would not have any real downside because 737/757 pilots moving to it would need to be trained from the ground-up, anyway.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:44 pm

keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 73.article

The NMA is shelved. Boeing needs a new NB for the second half of this decade, if the 737MAX recovers.

If not: even more.

Compared to the 737MAX an all new FSA should feature
- AKH cargo options
- a versions up to 250 seats realistically
- a version that can do up to 4500NM realistically
- an ultra efficient 199 seat single class < 4hrs version
- engine choice
- future higher BPR ready configuration
- fully fly by wire
- beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin
- modular production, assembly that can be spread out globally
- a few strong USP's setting it apart from the A321.

Image
Source: keesje / Boeing


What a beautiful photo Keesje! That looks very much like a "Me too aircraft" isn't it ... :mrgreen:
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
morrisond
Posts: 2662
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:59 pm

keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Why would it need side sticks? A back driven Control Column/Wheel gives much better feedback to the pilot on what the aircraft is actually doing.

Because, at least in my opinion, side sticks are the future. The aviation market is moving to side sticks. Most clean-sheets today use side sticks. Look at the A220, KC390, Legacy 450, Legacy 500, Praetor 500, Praetor 600, the MC-21, the C919, and pretty much all fighter jets today. They use side sticks. As far as I know they only major aviation company that has never used side sticks is Boeing.

Side sticks save a lot of weight and space, they are very clearly the future. In my opinion a yoke is so uncomfortable.

Does somebody know of a clean sheet aircraft that is not GA and not a Boeing aircraft that uses a yoke? I thought almost every clean-sheet today has a side stick, please correct me if I’m wrong.


The Airbus side stick has been there for over 40 years.

Can't NASA/Boeing come up with something better? Really?

It would be nice if you could e.g. use both / either hands and / or your fingers,

better adjustable to pilot's different physics, dimensions, preferences, providing better feedback..

Image
https://www.an-aviation.com/how-does-th ... raft-work/


I thought Airbus sidestick designs provide zero feedback as they are not back driven.
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1862
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:23 pm

morrisond wrote:
Nope I'm using Keesje's standard of saying orders will drop to 2K on MAX, and I did say it was my guess.

I also didn't say anything about paying back sunk costs - I'm using Boeing's historical Margin advantage to make that guess. Airbus seems to have really benefitted from going over 50 per month, when they were both around 30-40 Boeing had a large margin advantage.

And it's not really labour hours per frame - it's more what is your monthly labour cost if you are unwilling or unable to shed labour costs due to labour contracts which I assume are a lot harder to get out of for Airbus.



So a lot of guesses and assumptions really. I don't know why you wouldn't consider the cost the groundings has added to the MAX program when thinking about the margins though. Whatever it turns out to be, it will need to be paid from the profit margins and if those profit margins are eroded due to the scaling back on deliveries, which I don't think Boeing has a magic formula to not be affected by this, it will be a double impact on those margins. The profit margins will be reduced due to added cost to the program and the margins is then reduced further due to the lower delivery rate.

Nice try in shifting the goalposts on the labour costs, you were talking about Airbus becoming more efficient because Boeing does it in less labour hours and with less people.

In any case, I still fail to see how Boeing is able to even think of the NMA at a time like this. I understand that companies and countries have to continually invest but Boeing is in real financial trouble here. They are not delivering very few 737's for over a year now and the RTS is still unsure and they are going to have delays with the 777X EIS as well. Added to this is the slowdown of the aviation industry for airlines which will impact the larger models the most as it usually does indicates to me that the company will have to focus on righting the ship first on those 2 programs before they can even think of launching any new products.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2161
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, the topic us the NMA.

It is not the MAX. (off topic)
It is not Coronavirus nor any possible bail outs.

Please limit discussion to the NMA and discuss other topics on their respective threads and keep politics out of civil aviation.

Lightsaber


Although it is pretty certain that the NMA concept will have significant changes with this upheaval, it will come to fruition in a few years. As someone noted upthread if the MAX is produced for the same number of years as the NG was, it will be in production until 2038. That seems too long - so the NMA & NSA family needs to be introduced by around 2030. There will be a lot of commonality - same cockpit and architecture, things like flaps will be of the same design just resized to be optimum, two different wing designs size wise but same technology, some interesting possibilities of NMA wing on NSA body & NSA wing on NMA body besides, which create options for long-thin and short-fat capabilities.

There is way too much R&D required for just a NMA - it will have to be both NMA and NSA with the NMA going first as the dress rehersal. Four models in total, NMA1, NMA2, NSA1, and NSA2. The upheaval is changing the specific sizes and ranges needed, as well as speed etc. The only one of these that is pretty much locked in is the NSA2, which will be the last of the 4, a bit larger than the 738 such that the 738 be in production past this intro to its production end. Boeing Brazil will fill in below the 738.

A new challenge with CV occurring is the massive amount of existing metal in both the NB and WB areas. Selling a new A320 or 738 will be tough as buying a used frame in the same size will be very easy, same with the WB's above the 788, lots of existing metal in competition. Only the middle market where the A300 and B767 once played will be relatively empty as those are fully retired. It may be the only portion of the market where a good design could sell without the competition of existing inventory.

So what will be the innovations that go into the NMA / NSA. I see:

- new cockpit concept, basically able to be autonomous or single pilot with remote copilot. Highly automated.

- trainers running the exact same system as the plane, similar to what is being done with the T-7 Red Hawk. Regular trainer requirements for all pilots, basically competetency tests. Does one know the checklist by heart, has everyone done a single engine takeoff in a trainer within say 2 years. With all the automation coming the pilots are more technicians solving problems, they must know how to solve the problems occurring which takes regular experience.

- Trussed wings - how does the lift from the truss element affect the total wing aspect ratio, does going high wing improve the design, the lower truss connecting behind the wing allows the MLG to be a bit further back, improving rotation. Is adding folding wing tips to this another improvement.

- CFRP barrels or staying with Aluminum - As CFRP is much more of a 3D printing type of process, ie robots building from tape and resin single parts, possibly integrating premade ribs etc I see it as the way to go. But Aluminum might still be best for now, I cannot see Aluminum being the structural material of choice out 50 years from now.

- the eternal 6ab, 7ab, 8ab debate. Aisle and seat widths. Will for efficiency seats get narrower from now, or can they grow a bit. As a passenger I would love a extra 1-2 inches of added seat width, but will that kill the planes efficiency to do that.

- Designing for range. In the NB's there has been a steady creep up where longer and longer missions are performed, right to the edge of capability. But in the Widebodies, except for the 767 all in current production have ranges of 7,500 nm or more even. The NMA will be the first model in decades that design range will be less than previous. With engine improvements, range has been solved to the point that lots of range capability is flying around as dead weight.

- Do we need real windows or should they be replaced by flat screen TV's that allow one to view out. Our IFE screens could provide front, rear and downward viewing.

what other things?
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:11 pm

morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Because, at least in my opinion, side sticks are the future. The aviation market is moving to side sticks. Most clean-sheets today use side sticks. Look at the A220, KC390, Legacy 450, Legacy 500, Praetor 500, Praetor 600, the MC-21, the C919, and pretty much all fighter jets today. They use side sticks. As far as I know they only major aviation company that has never used side sticks is Boeing.

Side sticks save a lot of weight and space, they are very clearly the future. In my opinion a yoke is so uncomfortable.

Does somebody know of a clean sheet aircraft that is not GA and not a Boeing aircraft that uses a yoke? I thought almost every clean-sheet today has a side stick, please correct me if I’m wrong.


The Airbus side stick has been there for over 40 years.

Can't NASA/Boeing come up with something better? Really?

It would be nice if you could e.g. use both / either hands and / or your fingers,

better adjustable to pilot's different physics, dimensions, preferences, providing better feedback..

Image
https://www.an-aviation.com/how-does-th ... raft-work/


I thought Airbus sidestick designs provide zero feedback as they are not back driven.

Gulfstream also has active side sticks, and if Boeing switches to a side stick I think they will switch to active side sticks.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:17 pm

keesje wrote:
... Boeing are out of reputation, time & money. They need NSA2 yesterday ...

Care to explain how one does an all new clean sheet when one has no reputation, time or money?

:white: :white: :white:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
planecane
Posts: 1559
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:21 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
As far as I know they only major aviation company that has never used side sticks is Boeing.



You should specify "commercial aircraft" with this comment. Boeing certainly has used side sticks. Although technically the designs may have all been from before they were Boeing products.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:27 pm

- new cockpit concept, basically able to be autonomous or single pilot with remote copilot. Highly automated.

- Do we need real windows or should they be replaced by flat screen TV's that allow one to view out. Our IFE screens could provide front, rear and downward viewing.

what other things?

Thats just way too unrealistic in my opinion. Single pilot cockpit, there’s no way that would be approved in my opinion. At least in my opinion, there is no way for that system with 1 pilot in the air and 1 ‘pilot’ on the ground to work 100% reliably.

Windows replaced by cameras connected to IFEs is also way too unrealistic in my opinion. Windows are not there for your entertainment, they are a safety feature, but people use it as entertainment. Imagine a RTO because of an engine fire, and imagine the camera system failing. Would there be any way to see which side is safe to evacuate? I don’t think so.

I know you can have system redundancy, but this level of automation is not something I see happening in the 2030s, 2040s, or 2050s.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13831
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... estore-it/ ) reports:

Calhoun announced that the development work Boeing has been doing for several years on the NMA is starting over.

“Things have changed a bit. The competitive playing field is a bit different. We have to plan for China,” Calhoun said. “We’re going to start with a clean sheet of paper again.”



I think people (Aboulafia) were not understanding Cahoun on China.

China needs to balance trade deficit .
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4331 ... e-deal-ceo

But China also doesn't want the 737MAX
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/company-new ... al~1639166

So Boeing needs to build an aircraft China can buy by the hundreds to reduce it's trade deficit.
China wants an aircraft with serious cargo capability (cut the murmeling on bulk loading being not so bad, they need AKH)
https://www.heraldnet.com/business/boei ... w-797-jet/
Last edited by keesje on Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27088
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:28 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
Do you have sources or do you speculate?


Speculation.

It seems pretty clear the 737 replacement will use an all-new modern cockpit because it will have no legacy to the 737 itself (either in design or systems). So an existing 737 pilot will need to be trained as if it was an entirely new type (as it will be). So if they have to learn everything else "fresh", adding "one more thing" in learning a new control input (side-stick vs. yoke) does not seem to me to be anything burdensome. After all, we have widebody pilots today certified on Boeing yokes and Airbus side-sticks so it clearly can be done.

And if NMA does go forward and it does cover the upper-end of the 737 and the full 757 family markets, that will also be an all-new cockpit with no legacy to the 737 or 757/767 so again, those pilots will also need to be trained on a new type and adding a new control input to that curriculum should not be an onerous addition.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19716
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:52 pm

Second warning. Stay on topic.

lightsaber wrote:
Folks, the topic is the NMA.

It is not the MAX. (off topic)
It is not Coronavirus nor any possible bail outs.

Please limit discussion to the NMA and discuss other topics on their respective threads and keep politics out of civil aviation.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:08 pm

keesje wrote:
China wants an aircraft with serious cargo capability (cut the murmeling on bulk loading being not so bad, they need AKH)
https://www.heraldnet.com/business/boei ... w-797-jet/


If China wants more cargo capacity, then they should order the 737-10. The 737-10 will have bigger cargo holds than the A321 (55.5 m3 vs 51.70 m3). AKH containers reduce useable cargo volume. Airlines like Air China currently bulk load their A321s.
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19716
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:09 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's not try to divert from the topic. The 737 Backlog has started to drop.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 73.article

The NMA is shelved. Boeing needs a new NB for the second half of this decade, if the 737MAX recovers.

If not: even more.

Compared to the 737MAX an all new FSA should feature
- AKH cargo options
- a versions up to 250 seats realistically
- a version that can do up to 4500NM realistically
- an ultra efficient 199 seat single class < 4hrs version
- engine choice
- future higher BPR ready configuration
- fully fly by wire
- beating latests flight safety & redundancy requirements by a healthy margin
- modular production, assembly that can be spread out globally
- a few strong USP's setting it apart from the A321.

Image
Source: keesje / Boeing


What a beautiful photo Keesje! That looks very much like a "Me too aircraft" isn't it ... :mrgreen:

The added reinforcement isn't required with pre-stressed GFRP. A fairly standard material now that came out after the 787. That is just aerodynamic drag.

I also do not see folding wingtips. To fit in gates and achieve great underside laminar flow, a high aspect ratio wing is best. Boeing already spent the money developing the folding wingtips, I think they are a given now for future designs.

The engines also are prior generation. There will be so little development that whomever lands the NMA engine order will have to fund a lot of risk.

Lightsaber

PS I am also not a fan of high wings in this size category. That forfeits some nice free body lift. I am also not a fan of T-tails due to the added weight and drag.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:31 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... estore-it/ ) reports:

Calhoun announced that the development work Boeing has been doing for several years on the NMA is starting over.

“Things have changed a bit. The competitive playing field is a bit different. We have to plan for China,” Calhoun said. “We’re going to start with a clean sheet of paper again.”



I think people (Aboulafia) were not understanding Cahoun on China.

China needs to balance trade deficit .
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4331 ... e-deal-ceo

But China also doesn't want the 737MAX
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/company-new ... al~1639166

So Boeing needs to build an aircraft China can buy by the hundreds to reduce it's trade deficit.
China wants an aircraft with serious cargo capability (cut the murmeling on bulk loading being not so bad, they need AKH)
https://www.heraldnet.com/business/boei ... w-797-jet/


AKH, very good idea!!!
Whith a 7-abreast ovoid cross section
Very faaaar of a "me too aircraft..." :bouncy:

Wait at least until the end of COVID-19 crisis for a reopening of the 797 office...
"No limit to my poooWer!!!
Do it! "...
 
User avatar
NeBaNi
Posts: 476
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:45 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:14 am

keesje wrote:
This and every configuration has it's ups and downs.

A TTBW like configuration looks weak for cargo, landing gear stowage, wing fuel capacity and impractical truss.

Great for aerodynamics, engine flexibility and ground access. It's always trade-off's https://youtu.be/GLXk7pZFPPk?t=155

Usually we end up in recognizeable compromises.

Image
source: keesje / Boeing

But we can leave good design and configuration to specialist teams. The market specification has to be clear.

Boeing wasted a lot of time there, chasing old patents that might look nice, but weren't what the airlines are looking for.

Time to summarize everything and show leadership.

You keep posting these images, so let me respond to you as I always have:
That is misinformation. All of those designs were studied for a projected entry-into-service of 2035. So, that has nothing to do with a potential 2024 design.

I'll add that half of those studies were done by NASA or with NASA funding, and their design reports are all publicly available. The only way your point would stand is in 2035, we had an all new aircraft that looked like the standard tube + wing configuration. As of right now, you're being deliberately misleading and you know it. I'm sure this is nothing new to some of the members who have read A-net for a while.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10261
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:24 am

keesje wrote:
Take some time to read this. https://www.planeandpilotmag.com/articl ... pbFiMgzaUl

If a company (and their boosters) have been promising you 20 times things that didn't materialize, you might allow yourself to ignore their next promise and have a good independent look, think yourself.

The FAA can approve anything, if EASA, Canada and China don't, nobody will fly / board it. We are waiting for fully compliant trim wheels, stall recovery with MCAS pulled, HR compliant emergency warning systems, powerfull processors and convincing redundancy solutions. The times Boeing could push through half baked patches seems over.

The article goes back to the crashes and then goes into the MEL, that appears to be the main theme of the article, or am I not reading clearly between the lines?
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 299
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:46 am

For the NMA-Mom, Boeing is needing lots of money for a new project like this.

Does it have the money?

We all know the answers to that. It is a no.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4899
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:00 am

keesje wrote:
I wonder why Boeing kept chasing a 2 aisle NMA for so long, after many airlines, analysts, surveys, engineers and suppliers said and demonstrated they didn't believe in it.

Was keeping going after an unpopular spec, raising the bar, a way to avoid investing, kill the business case, securing free cash flow for dividents & salary boosting stock buy backs? It paid off for DM and most other senior management.

Boeing seems to want to build a single airplane to take both the 767's and 757's place in one fell swoop. Many outside of Boeing just wanted an airplane to go heads up with the A321. I would not even bet on that as the A321 is not nor will it ever be an Airliner for the Ages rather than a compromise for right now. They're in the right space in the right time and so they should do well. when Boeing finally get's all the 737 mess cleared up? They should then maximize the 737-9 for freighter use and proceed to make the-10 viable. Then scrap the whole line in 10 years for a newer concept.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:53 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
For the NMA-Mom, Boeing is needing lots of money for a new project like this.

Does it have the money?

We all know the answers to that. It is a no.


Getting the money would probably be no problem, if you have a working concept, which they struggled with for quite some time now. And if you could not make a market case pre-COVID 19, things won´t look better today. Apart from that Boeing needs to fix the MAX, if they do not, their credibility as a supplier would be hurt for a very long time.
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 299
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:16 am

seahawk wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
For the NMA-Mom, Boeing is needing lots of money for a new project like this.

Does it have the money?

We all know the answers to that. It is a no.


Getting the money would probably be no problem, if you have a working concept, which they struggled with for quite some time now. And if you could not make a market case pre-COVID 19, things won´t look better today. Apart from that Boeing needs to fix the MAX, if they do not, their credibility as a supplier would be hurt for a very long time.


Boeing credibility already in peaces because of MAX.

But money is an issue. Calhoun doesn't want government cash with strings and no mention of Boeing seeking or is the getting money from other places.

Credit crunch 2.0?

I saying yes to that.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:30 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Boeing seems to want to build a single airplane to take both the 767's and 757's place in one fell swoop. Many outside of Boeing just wanted an airplane to go heads up with the A321. I would not even bet on that as the A321 is not nor will it ever be an Airliner for the Ages rather than a compromise for right now.

This is correct. It is difficult to create a 5000nm range aircraft and an aircraft that is competitive on a 500nm route. The 757 is a good example of an aircraft that had great range but the 737 was much more efficient on short routes.

If Boeing makes a 5000nm narrowbody a potential A220-500 would destroy it on a 500nm route. It is like certain members want Boeing to create the wrong aircraft.

Boeing has had a plan for quite some time to have two families below the 787. A larger, heavier, faster and longer ranged we called the NMA or 797. This capitalises on the downgauging trend, fragmentation and the growth of point to point routes.

Then a smaller, lighter and shorter ranged aircraft that trades cruising speed for greater efficiency. We call this the FSA. This smaller aircraft was to come after the 737MAX. This aircraft might not be a direct 737MAX replacement as the new aircraft might have significantly less range in an attempt to gain efficiency.

The 737MAX and 777X were always considered a medium term solution. The 787-10NEO and future larger 787-11NEO will be rolling off production lines long after the 777X ends production.

I expect Boeing is forced to maintain this 2 aircraft strategy. The medium sized 797 will fly and Boeing will simply borrow money if they are short of cash.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10261
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:10 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Then a smaller, lighter and shorter ranged aircraft that trades cruising speed for greater efficiency. We call this the FSA. This smaller aircraft was to come after the 737MAX. This aircraft might not be a direct 737MAX replacement as the new aircraft might have significantly less range in an attempt to gain efficiency.

When you talk about significantly less range, will this a/c be able to perform transcon flights in the USA like the 737 does now?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:45 am

par13del wrote:
When you talk about significantly less range, will this a/c be able to perform transcon flights in the USA like the 737 does now?

I would say no.

I read somewhere that 90% of all flights are under 1000nm. The short range aircraft will still cover a large percentage of routes.

If the 797 seats 20-30% more people than the A321 then it could do the transcon flights with excellent efficiency per seat. It would also be able to do it with extra payload in the belly where as the 737-10 could carry no extra payload.

I'd expect the Future Small Aircraft to launch around 2030 and enter service around 2035. This is so far into the future that i would not be surprised if it was hybrid. A single gas turbine generator in the tail powering two electric fans under the wings. A small battery bank provides enough emergency power if the gas turbine fails and allows for a single engine. The battery bank will allow the gas turbine to be sized smaller to maintain cruise with the battery providing extra power for takeoff.

The hybrid powertrain effectively provides an electric gearbox between the gas turbine core and the fan. The high rpm gas turbine spins a generator creating electricity. The electricity then runs a low rpm motor running the fan. The gas turbine effectively gets used when calculating the bypass ratio with the electric fans providing the bypass air. It will have a very high bypass ratio probably above 30:1 and similar to a turboprop.

This advanced short range design might be conventionally powered but at the end of the day it would not be possible without the 797. The MOM gap would simply be too big stepping up to the 787.

It would be terrible if Boeing abandoned this long term NMA and FSA plan and simple did a jack of all trades master of none aircraft that would effectively be an A321XLR copy.
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:06 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
For the NMA-Mom, Boeing is needing lots of money for a new project like this.

Does it have the money?

We all know the answers to that. It is a no.


It’s not just Boeing Who doesn’t have money, airlines don’t have any money and will not for a while. Very few airlines will be ordering airplanes in the next few years. When they are ready to order, the current generation of aircraft can be produced.

I don’t see much justification for investing in new planes other than freighters or autonomous flight. There will be plenty of used airplanes for years to come. Regardless of what the 737 doom and gloom crowd says, now is not the time for new airplane designs. We need airlines financially healthy in order to take delivery of aircraft to provide cash flow to fund development.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10261
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:50 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
par13del wrote:
When you talk about significantly less range, will this a/c be able to perform transcon flights in the USA like the 737 does now?

I would say no.

I read somewhere that 90% of all flights are under 1000nm. The short range aircraft will still cover a large percentage of routes.

Except that is what 737 size a/c did to the 757 which was supposed to be the transcon a/c and the 737 short hop, once the 737 got increased range it took over 90% of the 757 routes pushing it to niche high density and tatl routes.
Small international carriers also use 737 size a/c for their domestic and international routes, look at the Caribbean, South and Central America. The a/c allows them to use exusting
frames to test new markets versus the major investment of a new frame.
Not saying it cannot be done, but the efficiency of such a two frame solution would have to be great to overcome the financing and operational cost, I assume the pay scale for both would be the same.

Now if regional carriers were to have a re-emergence, such an a/c may keep them away from the mainline carriers.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:59 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
You keep posting these images, so let me respond to you as I always have:
That is misinformation. All of those designs were studied for a projected entry-into-service of 2035. So, that has nothing to do with a potential 2024 design.

I'll add that half of those studies were done by NASA or with NASA funding, and their design reports are all publicly available. The only way your point would stand is in 2035, we had an all new aircraft that looked like the standard tube + wing configuration. As of right now, you're being deliberately misleading and you know it. I'm sure this is nothing new to some of the members who have read A-net for a while.

I think we do see evidence of various people over-promoting and over-anticipating unproven concepts and not paying attention to the dates the researchers are suggesting are feasible. A lot of these come with drawbacks such as slower cruise speeds that mitigate the advantages.

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
For the NMA-Mom, Boeing is needing lots of money for a new project like this.

Does it have the money?

We all know the answers to that. It is a no.

It's strange how the lack of money gets ignored when considering a "me too" airliner yet becomes prominent when other approaches are considered.

The reality is Boeing has admitted they are back to the requirements analysis phase when it comes to what to do next, and their lack of money and their need to do MAX RTS, 777X EIS, and MAX-10 EIS means they already have a lot of engineering challenges for a period where there is no money coming in.

Boeing has made it clear their path to restoring their reputation with both customers and regulators will be via MAX RTS. Suggesting otherwise pretty much is in the realm of the make believe. There is already too much of Boeing's and its partner's money and reputation invested in MAX for them to walk away.

RJMAZ wrote:
It would be terrible if Boeing abandoned this long term NMA and FSA plan and simple did a jack of all trades master of none aircraft that would effectively be an A321XLR copy.

Indeed. The suggestion that Boeing abandon customers and partners by ditching MAX then transitioning to a me-too narrow body seems to be the worst of all worlds. Piss off your customers and partners, abandon $billions of R&D dollars, factory equipment, and aircraft already produced, all to build something that's a hybrid of an 80s A321 and a 00s 787 that will need to be your keystone product for the next 30 or so years? End result will be abandoning a key market and customer base for years and spending tens of $billions of dollars to produce a product that the competitor can largely match with an engine PIP or NEO. Seems to be a recipe for Boeing to stay in second place. :scratchchin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:06 pm

Where should the confidence from the customer side come from, when the MAX is not fixed?
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4094
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:12 pm

The NMA should also include a rethinking of trainers. We don't need 'too expensive to buy' $15 million per, rather think very high end video game cave stores. One trainer does not necessarily need to do everything. The nemesis MCAS disaster could have ended far better with a video grotto store version which would have given pilots the muscle memory of what to do when things go amiss. Such trainers would likely cost $100K to the top version at $1 million. After initial training pilots spend about an hour a week. While sessions would be recorded, most would never be reviewed. A pilot would simply do anything difficult over and over until they were comfortable with the results.

ps - I cannot imagine any pilot I have known who would not make sure they got perfect results. Competence and training available to produce competence is the goal.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:20 pm

To me it looks like the era of really large wide-body aircraft may have spiked.

I do not feel airlines will gorge on over 250 seat 3 class airplanes for a long while.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
User avatar
Revelation
Topic Author
Posts: 23910
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:59 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
ps - I cannot imagine any pilot I have known who would not make sure they got perfect results. Competence and training available to produce competence is the goal.

The issue is that we aren't that concerned about the pilots you have met, we are concerned about the pilots that for-profit diploma mills put out in the 2030 to 2050 time frame.

Chances are good that the pilots you met learned a lot of discipline by being in the military where what you did was often a matter of life or death and/or the mission had to happen regardless of risk. The training and related discipline reflected this. Also a lot of pilots got their start in the industry flying small single engine or regional airliners with little automation or landing aids under very challenging circumstances. It was do or die, literally. This made a lot of people develop strong discipline around preparation and execution. And this is not a USA thing, I've met plenty of EU former military pilots, have seen shows on jungle flying around the world under far more challenging conditions than the US, etc.

Fast forward after another decade of poor entry level pay, with the airlines being more cash strapped than ever, with many mentor pilots retiring off, with the race to the bottom continuing, with wise parents refusing to spend tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for their kids to get an entry level job with crap pay and stability, and it's hard to see it get better rather than worse.

The problem is that indeed there will be a push to less than full motion sims with less than realistic cockpits with the metric being measured being cost not safety. In an ideal world a happy medium could be found, but this is not an ideal world. Cash is king.

KlimaBXsst wrote:
To me it looks like the era of really large wide-body aircraft may have spiked.

I do not feel airlines will gorge on over 250 seat 3 class airplanes for a long while.

When you say really large widebodies I think of 779 and A35K not NMA.

If there is no room for NMA, why is flying 220 people 4000 nm still the benchmark?

What if in a post covid world most flights return to being domestic due to border crossing impediments and less people fly so the "sweet spot" in the market shifts to smaller lighter planes with less range required?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:11 pm

Revelation wrote:

KlimaBXsst wrote:
To me it looks like the era of really large wide-body aircraft may have spiked.

I do not feel airlines will gorge on over 250 seat 3 class airplanes for a long while.

When you say really large widebodies I think of 779 and A35K not NMA.

If there is no room for NMA, why is flying 220 people 4000 nm still the benchmark?

What if in a post covid world most flights return to being domestic due to border crossing impediments and less people fly so the "sweet spot" in the market shifts to smaller lighter planes with less range required?


Heck even 250 seats may be too many. 175 3 class seats may be the new bench mark for quite some time.

Fact is, the middle seat is now unsaleable unless you are in a polygamist type relationship, or a couple traveling with a child.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27088
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:25 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Heck even 250 seats may be too many. 175 3 class seats may be the new bench mark for quite some time.


Which is ironically where the 767-300ER sits quite nicely when configured with a large lie-flat Business Class cabin and a Premium and Regular Economy product.

Maybe those rumors of a 767-X with GEnx are starting to gain traction...NMA could become the "New-engined Medium-sized Airplane". :scratchchin:
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:41 pm

Stitch wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Heck even 250 seats may be too many. 175 3 class seats may be the new bench mark for quite some time.


Which is ironically where the 767-300ER sits quite nicely when configured with a large lie-flat Business Class cabin and a Premium and Regular Economy product.

Maybe those rumors of a 767-X with GEnx are starting to gain traction...NMA could become the "New-engined Medium-sized Airplane". :scratchchin:


Fuel is cheap right now.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos