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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:43 pm

I think he meant with a cabin configuration where there is always one empty seat or aisle between the pax. A 767 would be down to 4 pax per aisle in economy.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:45 pm

seahawk wrote:
I think he meant with a cabin configuration where there is always one empty seat or aisle between the pax. A 767 would be down to 4 pax per aisle in economy.


Same household couples can sit next to one another... so you are not actually correct.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:51 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Fuel is cheap right now.


Well that makes it even easier then - just buy new 767-300ERs. :angel:
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:53 pm

Stitch wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Fuel is cheap right now.


Well that makes it even easier then - just buy new 767-300ERs. :angel:


No airline is buying anything any time soon.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:03 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
No airline is buying anything any time soon.


Well then I guess Boeing should not be rushing something new and expensive into the market in the near term as some have suggested and instead just continue to focus on their existing product and scaling production to match demand. :angel:
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
You keep posting these images, so let me respond to you as I always have:
That is misinformation. All of those designs were studied for a projected entry-into-service of 2035. So, that has nothing to do with a potential 2024 design.

I'll add that half of those studies were done by NASA or with NASA funding, and their design reports are all publicly available. The only way your point would stand is in 2035, we had an all new aircraft that looked like the standard tube + wing configuration. As of right now, you're being deliberately misleading and you know it. I'm sure this is nothing new to some of the members who have read A-net for a while.

I think we do see evidence of various people over-promoting and over-anticipating unproven concepts and not paying attention to the dates the researchers are suggesting are feasible. A lot of these come with drawbacks such as slower cruise speeds that mitigate the advantages.

To you slower cruise speeds point, I believe when Boeing came up with the initial SUGAR High design in the early 2010s, it was a similar high-wing truss-braced configuration, although with less sweep designed to cruise slower. By 2019, it had evolved into the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) with a higher sweep, allowing it to cruise at comparable Mach numbers as the 737.

Edit: Here's a link to the original design report. A fascinating (but long) read:
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20150017039.pdf
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:15 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
Revelation wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
You keep posting these images, so let me respond to you as I always have:

I'll add that half of those studies were done by NASA or with NASA funding, and their design reports are all publicly available. The only way your point would stand is in 2035, we had an all new aircraft that looked like the standard tube + wing configuration. As of right now, you're being deliberately misleading and you know it. I'm sure this is nothing new to some of the members who have read A-net for a while.

I think we do see evidence of various people over-promoting and over-anticipating unproven concepts and not paying attention to the dates the researchers are suggesting are feasible. A lot of these come with drawbacks such as slower cruise speeds that mitigate the advantages.

To you slower cruise speeds point, I believe when Boeing came up with the initial SUGAR High design in the early 2010s, it was a similar high-wing truss-braced configuration, although with less sweep designed to cruise slower. By 2019, it had evolved into the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) with a higher sweep, allowing it to cruise at comparable Mach numbers as the 737.

Edit: Here's a link to the original design report. A fascinating (but long) read:
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20150017039.pdf


Yes, in fact the TTBW cruises slightly faster than the NG and MAX at mach .80, so it should be more than fine for even A320NEO-XLR type missions
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:49 pm

par13del wrote:
Not saying it cannot be done, but the efficiency of such a two frame solution would have to be great to overcome the financing and operational cost, I assume the pay scale for both would be the same.

Airbus has a two frame solution. Fast forward 10 years and the A321XLR will be the standard model being produced. The A220-500 will be rolling off production lines and might be outselling the A320 at that point in the 160-180 seat market.

The efficiency of the two frame solution is clearly huge compared to Airbus having the A318 and A319 in a one family solution. The A220-500 would most likely have the shortest range in the Airbus lineup.

The A220 and A320 are fairly close in size and range mainly because they originated from competiting manufacturers. In an ideal world two cleansheet designs from the one manufacturer would place the aircraft further apart in both seating capacity and range. This would create greater market coverage. This is why the Boeing NMA would sit slightly above the A321XLR in both size and range and the FSA would sit below a A220-500 in size or range.

The longest fuselage length FSA will probably have the lowest range. I'd expect it to hit that 199seat sweet spot for short hops. The shortest fuselage length FSA might target 149 seats and have greater range and be able to do transcon.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:43 am

KlimaBXsst wrote:
To me it looks like the era of really large wide-body aircraft may have spiked.

I do not feel airlines will gorge on over 250 seat 3 class airplanes for a long while.

I agree with this. This means that all of the VLA aircraft demand will shift down to 787 and A350 size. Most people thought the 777X would survive as the shift wouldn't be that big and going from an A380 to a A350 is a big downgauge.

The problem is this downgauging trend will continue across the full spectrum of sizes. What will say the huge number of 787-8 customers downgauge to? You have the MOM gap. If most 787 and A330CEO customers want to downgauge then that means we now have huge demand for the 797. Demand for the A321XLR will also continue to increase.
 
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PM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:46 am

RJMAZ wrote:

The problem is this downgauging trend will continue across the full spectrum of sizes. What will say the huge number of 787-8 customers downgauge to? You have the MOM gap. If most 787 and A330CEO customers want to downgauge then that means we now have huge demand for the 797. Demand for the A321XLR will also continue to increase.


The flaw in all this is - if you are right - airlines will want to "downgauge" to your hypothetical 797 over the next few years. But the NMA, if it ever sees the light of day, won't be ready anywhere near quickly enough. And by the time it is, airlines could be upgauging again.

I think quite a few 787 / A330 operators will downgauge through cutting frequencies rather than buying new smaller planes.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:48 am

PM wrote:
The flaw in all this is - if you are right - airlines will want to "downgauge" to your hypothetical 797 over the next few years. But the NMA, if it ever sees the light of day, won't be ready anywhere near quickly enough. And by the time it is, airlines could be upgauging again.

I think quite a few 787 / A330 operators will downgauge through cutting frequencies rather than buying new smaller planes.

The 797 would be fairly future proof.

Most aircraft families gain MTOW and get engine improvements. This causes the larger family members to start becoming more popular. The A320 and A330 are a good example where the NEO versions caused the longer fuselage length to become popular.

These mid life updates also allow a fuselage stretch moving the aircraft into a larger size category. The 747-8, 777-9 is a good example of this. Also the 737NG moved the 737 family 20-30% larger.

So in regards to the 797 it too will also get a midlife upgrade. Engine PIP,s weight reductions, aero tweaks, MTOW increases will see the range move up above 6000nm. A future stretch will see it effectively reach 787-8 in size.

Likewise the 787 will move upwards. The 787-10 is already a good 777-200ER replacement. New engines and a further stretch will see it near 777-300ER replacement territory. So the 787 will keep moving upwards in payload range making room for upgraded 797's.
 
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PM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:45 am

RJMAZ wrote:
PM wrote:
The flaw in all this is - if you are right - airlines will want to "downgauge" to your hypothetical 797 over the next few years. But the NMA, if it ever sees the light of day, won't be ready anywhere near quickly enough. And by the time it is, airlines could be upgauging again.

I think quite a few 787 / A330 operators will downgauge through cutting frequencies rather than buying new smaller planes.

The 797 would be fairly future proof.

Most aircraft families gain MTOW and get engine improvements. This causes the larger family members to start becoming more popular. The A320 and A330 are a good example where the NEO versions caused the longer fuselage length to become popular.

These mid life updates also allow a fuselage stretch moving the aircraft into a larger size category. The 747-8, 777-9 is a good example of this. Also the 737NG moved the 737 family 20-30% larger.

So in regards to the 797 it too will also get a midlife upgrade. Engine PIP,s weight reductions, aero tweaks, MTOW increases will see the range move up above 6000nm. A future stretch will see it effectively reach 787-8 in size.

Likewise the 787 will move upwards. The 787-10 is already a good 777-200ER replacement. New engines and a further stretch will see it near 777-300ER replacement territory. So the 787 will keep moving upwards in payload range making room for upgraded 797's.

None of which addresses my point that if airlines want to downgauge over the coming 36 months or so, the "797" isn't of any use to them because it doesn't exist.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:54 am

How about just restarting some slightly updated commercial 767 (new cabin IFE) variant with new cockpit (that is ready from suppliers)? It's available fast, the tanker line is going and maybe it could be offered cheap? Or would this just ruin future sales? The Everett 777 is not really selling like hot cake the 747 drying out and the 767 is not "big" but more a "midsize" airplane these days perfect for Asia and the mainstream market and maybe higher numbers?
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:26 pm

Noshow wrote:
How about just restarting some slightly updated commercial 767 (new cabin IFE) variant with new cockpit (that is ready from suppliers)? It's available fast, the tanker line is going and maybe it could be offered cheap? Or would this just ruin future sales? The Everett 777 is not really selling like hot cake the 747 drying out and the 767 is not "big" but more a "midsize" airplane these days perfect for Asia and the mainstream market and maybe higher numbers?


:checkmark:

PM wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
PM wrote:
The flaw in all this is - if you are right - airlines will want to "downgauge" to your hypothetical 797 over the next few years. But the NMA, if it ever sees the light of day, won't be ready anywhere near quickly enough. And by the time it is, airlines could be upgauging again.

I think quite a few 787 / A330 operators will downgauge through cutting frequencies rather than buying new smaller planes.

The 797 would be fairly future proof.

Most aircraft families gain MTOW and get engine improvements. This causes the larger family members to start becoming more popular. The A320 and A330 are a good example where the NEO versions caused the longer fuselage length to become popular.

These mid life updates also allow a fuselage stretch moving the aircraft into a larger size category. The 747-8, 777-9 is a good example of this. Also the 737NG moved the 737 family 20-30% larger.

So in regards to the 797 it too will also get a midlife upgrade. Engine PIP,s weight reductions, aero tweaks, MTOW increases will see the range move up above 6000nm. A future stretch will see it effectively reach 787-8 in size.

Likewise the 787 will move upwards. The 787-10 is already a good 777-200ER replacement. New engines and a further stretch will see it near 777-300ER replacement territory. So the 787 will keep moving upwards in payload range making room for upgraded 797's.

None of which addresses my point that if airlines want to downgauge over the coming 36 months or so, the "797" isn't of any use to them because it doesn't exist.


And why not ? I do not see any problem in the next 36 months (within 24 months a launch of NMA, after the COVID19 crisis).
Air traffic will have picked up again ...
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:15 pm

In the next 12 months there may well be a lot of A320 / 737 size a/c available as a number of smaller carriers ULCC, LCC or otherwise will fold, so a/c will not be the problem, the focus of mainline and more powerful carriers will be to prevent someone else from starting up new carriers with those a/c.
Major carriers will try to consolidate around less frequency more higher capacity a/c, no different than what they have always been trying to do, where they have high frequency its not because they wanted to but were forced, this pandemic and the worlds reaction to it has given that mindset a new foot hold. If they can maintain the status quo they can determine prices and when and how expansion takes place while not lowering their profitability. Funny thing is, if government provide these carriers with state aid in exchange for ownership rights, we can see the world going back in time to the days of state carriers and hostile environments for new entrants.
 
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Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 1:33 pm

Point #5 from this article says what I think is obvious, post Covid-19:

Passenger yields could remain low for a while, even after the crisis, as airlines seek to buy back their passengers but this is not sustainable for long; economy-class prices were already at rock bottom on most long-haul international routes prior to the crisis. If passengers do not resume travel as before, smaller aircraft types, not particularly cargo friendly, on longer-haul routes will become the norm.


High-density economy seating will be out of favour, due to passenger demands for distancing, which brings into question the viability of LCC long-haul operations; in particular those that were also dependant on tour operators.


Cargo revenue contribution can and will make a huge difference to airlines when it comes to reinstating passenger routes, and it will have a significant impact on their choice of aircraft gauge (size) and service frequency. Cargo’s financial contribution has always been critical to passenger airline profitability, but now will take on a critical role in decision making for boards in the coming years on which routes can resume profitably, and which aircraft is right to serve the demand anticipated.


It is no secret that before the crisis, with declining passenger yields due to overcapacity, most international widebody routes would not be profitable without the contribution of air cargo. Going forward, the economics of air cargo must be addressed and recognised fully so that airlines can sustain vibrant and critical services, and not just during a crisis.


https://theloadstar.com/what-airlines-a ... essionals/

The points in this article indicate to me that the time for MOM/NMA is now.

If we look at Airbus and Boeing I see two planes that can sieze this new market with minimal investment, which is the only option.

Airbus A322: a stretched, re-winged narrow body capable of extending the range and passenger capacity of the XLR. Problem I see with this is that perhaps the current GTF/LEAP engines aren't up to the task without significant investment, which neither GE/Safran/PW/MTU are willing to make. Manufacturers are doing to have to settle for what's on the shelf right now. Perhaps the XLR is all the markets need. Removing cargo space for more fuel tanks wouldn't make sense to give it more range.

Airbus is also going to have to get more aggressive with their freighter options. A 338F or especially a A350F would be possible, but would the market pay a premium for the latter over a 77F with such low fuel prices?

Boeing 767 NG: a new (foldable) wing, 787 avionics, and GEnx engines. The 767 offers "rooms to breathe" in the cabin for social distancing. It offers great cargo capacity. A new 767F can be developed in random.

I also see a brighter future for the 777F. I wonder if we'll see more orders for the 748F. Then again fuel is cheap and there are many 744s sitting in the desert. I also think that prospect of a 777-8F become more interesting as well, if the market is willing to pay the premium over the 777F. This could be a response to a A350F.

The business case for the 777-9X is obviously more bleak than ever. Same for the A35K. With RR laying off engineers, the UltraFan and A350neo will also be delayed but I just don't see demand being there. Let's say, best case scenario that demand picks up by 2025 and the A350neo is ready around 2030. Five years does not a market for the 777-9X make. The B789/B78J/A359 will be ruling the skies this decade.
 
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 2:15 pm

Of course now is the time for MOM/NMA. Boeing knows this too, but messed themselves up so badly with the 737 MAX debacle and their never ending hesitation to pull the trigger on MOM/NMA. Now they've waited so long and have discovered that their MAX bad times just became their COVID worse times as airlines cancel and defer orders. The days of Boeing innovation may well be long gone. A fight for survival often means aversion to risk and innovation, with companies opting to play it safe instead.
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 2:30 pm

Nah it might be time for the

1-3-1 or 2-2-1 MAX. Until all of this blows over. There are a bunch of planes that need to be flying 80% full rather than 40% full.

What better way to do this than buy shifting what number represents FULL!
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm

Transpacific narrowbody?
 
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 3:14 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Transpacific narrowbody?


That's the A322, right?
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Revelation
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 3:57 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Boeing 767 NG: a new (foldable) wing, 787 avionics, and GEnx engines. The 767 offers "rooms to breathe" in the cabin for social distancing. It offers great cargo capacity. A new 767F can be developed in random.

Problem is: who will order this any time soon.

The clean sheet NMA was targeting a market with 2000-4000 aircraft with NMA presumed to capture around 1000.

Most airlines have cut flying 75% or more and loads are down 90% or more.

You are proposing spending a bit less than NMA but not much less.

You'd probably need to find 50-100 orders for launch and a safe projection for 500-1000 future orders to launch this program.

I don't see that happening in a market that will have plenty of cheap used but quite new airplanes available and lots of empty slots in the production lines.

I'm not at all sure Boeing would want to do this. All you are doing is perpetuating the 767 fuse, cross section, production line and supply chain. These were the main things Boeing was trying to change via NMA.
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morrisond
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Re: Now is the time for MOM/NMA

Mon May 04, 2020 4:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Boeing 767 NG: a new (foldable) wing, 787 avionics, and GEnx engines. The 767 offers "rooms to breathe" in the cabin for social distancing. It offers great cargo capacity. A new 767F can be developed in random.

Problem is: who will order this any time soon.

The clean sheet NMA was targeting a market with 2000-4000 aircraft with NMA presumed to capture around 1000.

Most airlines have cut flying 75% or more and loads are down 90% or more.

You are proposing spending a bit less than NMA but not much less.

You'd probably need to find 50-100 orders for launch and a safe projection for 500-1000 future orders to launch this program.

I don't see that happening in a market that will have plenty of cheap used but quite new airplanes available and lots of empty slots in the production lines.

I'm not at all sure Boeing would want to do this. All you are doing is perpetuating the 767 fuse, cross section, production line and supply chain. These were the main things Boeing was trying to change via NMA.


I think with the EMB deal cancellation the calculus may have changed.

Whereas before I saw NMA/NSA as an 7W optimized Oval and EMB would do a clean sheet 5W using same tech cockpit to take up to 738 in size with the cancellation I think we will see 737 replacement as a tight light simple 6W - bigger cross section than 737 - but just big enough to fit LD3-45 in the bottom and using 777x sculpted sidewall tech to be a little narrower than A320 but same width inside.

Made in sizes from 737 to about A322, very light efficient and simple. Maybe eventually two wings. It won't be big enough to stretch into a 5,500NM 300+ seat Bird. It could be the truss braced design which could be a game changer. The Truss braced 52M wing is envisioned to fold just outside the truss so it can fit into 737/A320 gates.

It then becomes what is best(cheapest) for between 322 and 788 in size. More and more I'm convinced that is an 8W 767X. This is what the Asian carriers (the most likely to place new orders anytime soon) want to carry cargo and lots of people. It will also help perpetuate the 767F line with new engines and wing.

It does not need mega range as a lot of the routes are only a few hours so MTOW can be relatively low.

It sounds like they are going to keep a lot of engineers on staff so they must want them for something.

767X can be started first as it's basically just combining existing parts/tech together - the choice of engine would be the limiting factor in terms of EIS.

A truss braced next-gen control system/cockpit is going to take a long time and may take just 3-4 years to define it. It probably won't deliver until the 2030's.

Until then 738ER and 731-ER!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon May 04, 2020 5:00 pm

Thinking about the Truss Braced 6W two wing concept.

To keep it simple the first version may be the smaller wingspan lighter/shorter version/simpler to build. If it folds it would be a minimal fold - but you may not need that much span anyways and 38M is fine to carry 150-200 people less than 3,000NM very efficiently with Aero and structures that advanced and 2030 engines. MTOW's should definitely be under MAX/NEO.

That could be a very efficient light aircraft - then later grow the tube and put the 52M wing on it after 2035 to take over the original NMA space - maximum passenger efficiency - minimal cargo. By which time the 767X could wind down and continue as a freighter only.
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon May 04, 2020 8:31 pm

TBW is definitely the way to go. Its the path forward for massive efficiency gains over current aircraft with ~15% from the airframe alone plus whatever can be gained in engine tech and its ideally suited to larger fan diameters. The current aviation situation is a perfect opportunity for Boeing to focus all available R&D resources on it and this could enable the technological hurdles to be overcome sooner than many here seen to think.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue May 19, 2020 7:19 pm

The Air Current ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/ ) has put its October 2019 article about NMA transitioning to FSA outside its paywall i.e. it's now free.

The most interesting section to me was that the design and production infra hinted at quite often really was not ready for NMA:

But with the not-ready-for primetime nature of many of the design tools, the technology strategy underpinning the NMA development has become increasingly hybridized, say those familiar with the planning. Boeing’s implementation of a full Model Based Systems Engineering plan will require only applying it in select areas of the jet’s development, relying on some legacy design systems like those first put to use on the 787. The newest tools would be aimed at the advances in manufacturing the company believes will make the business case close.

While still a lower-risk incremental step, said those familiar with the planning, the hybrid nature of the plan means it is only applicable for the life of the NMA. That creates a technology silo as Boeing makes patchwork connections to link the new digital tools to the old, as opposed to the company’s stated goal of deploying the tools it plans to use for the next 40 years, they added.

It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot. The article mentions FSA was pitched to at least some customers, but it seems even less well defined than NMA was.

All in all it sounds like Boeing was not very clear or confident about what to do next even before CV19, and now the ball has been kicked in to the long grass due to CV19.
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue May 19, 2020 7:35 pm

Revelation wrote:
It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot.


When Boeing implemented DCAC/MRM in the 1990s, it was an absolute disaster of a roll-out and directly contributed to the "production meltdown" of 1997-1998. I can fully understand why they don't want to go through that again by launching FSA while adopting a new production process.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue May 19, 2020 8:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
The Air Current ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/ ) has put its October 2019 article about NMA transitioning to FSA outside its paywall i.e. it's now free.

The most interesting section to me was that the design and production infra hinted at quite often really was not ready for NMA:

But with the not-ready-for primetime nature of many of the design tools, the technology strategy underpinning the NMA development has become increasingly hybridized, say those familiar with the planning. Boeing’s implementation of a full Model Based Systems Engineering plan will require only applying it in select areas of the jet’s development, relying on some legacy design systems like those first put to use on the 787. The newest tools would be aimed at the advances in manufacturing the company believes will make the business case close.

While still a lower-risk incremental step, said those familiar with the planning, the hybrid nature of the plan means it is only applicable for the life of the NMA. That creates a technology silo as Boeing makes patchwork connections to link the new digital tools to the old, as opposed to the company’s stated goal of deploying the tools it plans to use for the next 40 years, they added.

It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot. The article mentions FSA was pitched to at least some customers, but it seems even less well defined than NMA was.

All in all it sounds like Boeing was not very clear or confident about what to do next even before CV19, and now the ball has been kicked in to the long grass due to CV19.


Interesting.

Better then to stick with what is known - the full 777X treatment on the 767X, new wing, tail, 777X cockpit and 777x systems architecture for commonality. No moonshots and could easier allow single pilot cargo operations. :D
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue May 19, 2020 8:44 pm

Stitch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot.


When Boeing implemented DCAC/MRM in the 1990s, it was an absolute disaster of a roll-out and directly contributed to the "production meltdown" of 1997-1998. I can fully understand why they don't want to go through that again by launching FSA while adopting a new production process.

True, and the Air Current mentioned the whole 787 fiasco. I hope they do find some realistic method for evaluating how ready they are to make the kind of transition they're talking about on the scale they would need. It's pretty easy to fool yourself into thinking you are ready.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 5:56 am

Revelation wrote:
The Air Current ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... placement/ ) has put its October 2019 article about NMA transitioning to FSA outside its paywall i.e. it's now free.

The most interesting section to me was that the design and production infra hinted at quite often really was not ready for NMA:

But with the not-ready-for primetime nature of many of the design tools, the technology strategy underpinning the NMA development has become increasingly hybridized, say those familiar with the planning. Boeing’s implementation of a full Model Based Systems Engineering plan will require only applying it in select areas of the jet’s development, relying on some legacy design systems like those first put to use on the 787. The newest tools would be aimed at the advances in manufacturing the company believes will make the business case close.

While still a lower-risk incremental step, said those familiar with the planning, the hybrid nature of the plan means it is only applicable for the life of the NMA. That creates a technology silo as Boeing makes patchwork connections to link the new digital tools to the old, as opposed to the company’s stated goal of deploying the tools it plans to use for the next 40 years, they added.

It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot. The article mentions FSA was pitched to at least some customers, but it seems even less well defined than NMA was.

All in all it sounds like Boeing was not very clear or confident about what to do next even before CV19, and now the ball has been kicked in to the long grass due to CV19.


That sounds like a real mess of a program. To be honest it makes it sounds as they were far, far away from launching.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 7:13 am

Revelation wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It kind of dove-tails with what Calhoun has said that investment in tools still continues: that's what you do if the tools aren't ready yet.

The article also points out the idea was to start with a lower volume product such as NMA to prove out the infra needed for NSA, but if you aren't even ready to do NMA then the whole point is moot.


When Boeing implemented DCAC/MRM in the 1990s, it was an absolute disaster of a roll-out and directly contributed to the "production meltdown" of 1997-1998. I can fully understand why they don't want to go through that again by launching FSA while adopting a new production process.

True, and the Air Current mentioned the whole 787 fiasco. I hope they do find some realistic method for evaluating how ready they are to make the kind of transition they're talking about on the scale they would need. It's pretty easy to fool yourself into thinking you are ready.


It seems like they were much less focused than they should have been. The 787-8 was a fiasco of the first order, they seemed to get their act together with the -9 and -10. The rollout of the 'mock up' and lie thru their teeth it would be flying in just a few months, then a few more months, then some more, and oops we will get back with you. The same brilliant management ushered thru the Max and as a side show didn't win awards with the KC-46. But Boeing was becoming quite profitable so it was OK, it seemed.

So they want to go full digital design. Well they have what is claimed to be full digital for the MQ-25 and T-7A which are going thru ESD at this time with indications of being on time / on schedule <shocking isn't it >. These will be excellent test cases for these new tools, we will soon see how well it has done. In particular, can they build them for the contract price. If done spot on, it will be quite profitable. If done lackluster it could be trouble.

The next clean sheet has to be a fully digital design.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 7:31 am

This Air Current article is a big reveal and it shows how Boeing's BOD was led down the garden path by DM and company. Just some points and comment as to the next clean sheet project.

Request investment in the NMA, probably alluded to board the digital design tools were ready for this project. Bring lots of engineers into the program.

After watching Airbus get the CS300 come to terms for a JV with Embraer, a lot as they have gotten a lot of things certified with a relatively small team. But Embraer is probably doing it very well in a more of an old school kind of way. Great Engineering but it doesn't fit with the digital design plane.

The Max saga clearly showing how that design went a decade ago cannot ever, ever be done again. The MGT didn't win any awards in handling it either.

The story and reality with the Max were so different, the Board no longer believed anything that DM and company brought them. A deeper look showed far higher risk and a lower maturity than had been presented.

I bet Calhoun and the board are quite pissed at where the Company is and are doing a top down critical review. There will be a lot more shakeups before long.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 8:01 am

JayinKitsap agree with most. I think almost everybody was ready to turn a blind eye on developping problems as long as free cash flow, stocks, salaries & dividents kept rising. While the comapanies fundemnts were rotting. They indeed need new governance, long term strategy and financial targets.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 8:15 am

Sorry, but if a board would notices all this and only acts so late, they are simply as responsible as the CEO. Calhoun is imho more of the same.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 1:22 pm

Just realized something specific I do not know about boards. A friend was elected to a public utility board/commission, it was a hostile elections. He was not able to get any more information as a member than as a citizen. The executives froze him out when it came to information (he played his hand well, and largely prevailed). Does a board member have any right to more information than the management team wants to give them?
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 2:23 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just realized something specific I do not know about boards. A friend was elected to a public utility board/commission, it was a hostile elections. He was not able to get any more information as a member than as a citizen. The executives froze him out when it came to information (he played his hand well, and largely prevailed). Does a board member have any right to more information than the management team wants to give them?

I guess it depends entirely on the Juristiction as there will be different legal rights, responsibilities and accountabilities but I do know that certain private companies (often less restricted from a legal/financial responsibility perspective) often can/Will buy their way on to the boards/executive team so that they have a legal rights to peruse the inner workings and direction of companies at AGMs etc. often happens when a single entity owns more than X% of shares.

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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Wed May 20, 2020 2:28 pm

seahawk wrote:
Sorry, but if a board would notices all this and only acts so late, they are simply as responsible as the CEO. Calhoun is imho more of the same.


The Board are elected by the institutional shareholders and their focus is on the stock price and dividends because that is where they make their money.

Just as Boeing's engineering culture was first hobbled by the merger with McD and their management philosophies, it was further hobbled by their "spiritual" merger with GE and their management philosophies (as defined by Jack Welch which explicitly pushed things like stock buybacks and large dividends) when James McNerney took control. So the institutional shareholders made sure to elect Board Members who were aligned with those and therefore of course Calhoun would have supported those philosophies.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 9:16 pm

My friend tells me that the Air Current article is a hatched job. That they were in far better shape than that on the project. That every development program has areas where they don't quite know about how some things will work, and that negative comments and incidents can always be found for even the most positive project. It's always possible to write a bad story about anything.

I asked if this was likely more political at this time; and they agreed that could be the case although they were not going to speculate on the motivation of the authors.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 9:35 pm

2175301 wrote:
My friend tells me that the Air Current article is a hatched job. That they were in far better shape than that on the project.


Even if they were, it's possible Calhoun and the other Board members were skeptical that this was the actual case after having been misled on the 787 and 737 MAX program's robustness.

It is also possible that some Boeing engineers feel the tools are ready while others do not and which group you happen to interview / ask will give you different answers.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 9:45 pm

Stitch wrote:
2175301 wrote:
My friend tells me that the Air Current article is a hatched job. That they were in far better shape than that on the project.


Even if they were, it's possible Calhoun and the other Board members were skeptical that this was the actual case after having been misled on the 787 and 737 MAX program's robustness.

It is also possible that some Boeing engineers feel the tools are ready while others do not and which group you happen to interview / ask will give you different answers.


I will agree that it appears clear to me that Calhoun at least felt that they were on the wrong track with limited cargo volume once it was identified that a new cockpit design was almost certainly going to be required by the regulators.

My understanding is that the initial instructions from him to the NMA group was to do a rough estimate on a new cockpit design (time and cost) and advise how that would affect the project, and then a week or two later asked about the freight concerns and did they even have the right aircraft at this point. My understanding is that Calhoun only canceled the current NMA project he was provided an estimated cost and timeline on a new cockpit; and that he felt that the NMA team needed to reevaluate the cargo option based on market indications (Calhoun did not want to build the wrong aircraft for a marginal project, even if there would be other benefits in developing and proving manufacturing advances). I'm not going to say the Calhoun was wrong on that last point.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 9:54 pm

Stitch wrote:
It is also possible that some Boeing engineers feel the tools are ready while others do not and which group you happen to interview / ask will give you different answers.



On this last point. In my many decades of working as an engineer... I can tell you that the naysayers have never managed to build anything new. I can also tell you from multiple examples of personal experience that many engineers have told others and management that certain ideas cannot be done. Then; I'd walk those same mangers through how it could be done, and at what estimated cost, and where the risk points were (and their likely cost if things went bad). About 50% of such projects got funded - and everyone of them worked and almost always was within the schedule and approximate budget I estimated (I blew it modestly bad on one project).

Then the "naysayers" say things like "we never thought of that approach" or that "too risky for me."

I also understand hatchet jobs. I've been on the receiving end of several of them.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 10:14 pm

Expressing concerns about the readiness of a system or process is not the same as saying it's "unworkable" or "undoable".

If some of those naysayers had been listened to about their concerns on how "snap-together" a 787-8 really could be, perhaps Boeing would not have spent so many extra years and tens of billions dragging it over the finish line and into customer service.

And if some of those naysayers had been listened to on their specific concerns about the 737-8's handling and the certification thereof, two of them might not have been lost with all-hands.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu May 21, 2020 10:39 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
TObound wrote:
That Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion cockpit sounds fantastic. Maybe Boeing should simply go off-the-shelf with this one and outsource the cockpit to RC.

Given how many pilots learn to fly or build multi-IFR time on King Airs and how prolific that RC product is proving elsewhere, they could probably reduce training time doing that.

Seems they are already paying Collins to do the heavy lifting on the 737 flight control computer, might as well be paying for a modern product, one that is being used by so many other products.

Maybe they can go for a common type rating with A220? :biggrin: :stirthepot:

It does run counter to the (previous ?) strategy of trying to capture a larger share of the lifetime spend on the airframe i.e. squeeze the vendors harder.


We have open source and increasingly common interface and operating philosophies on many other technologies. Why not airliners?

I'd love to see all these airframers outsource cockpits to avionics shops who work to common design standards and layouts. The industry's goal should be a standard cockpit for everything from a 50-seater to a double decker jumbo. Similar control laws. Everything. Create an industry forum who will dictate best practices and work to that.

Won't ever happen because then the OEMs can't hold their large customers hostage. But I am a crazy dreamer like that.

So? When were there closed source cockpits? though I don't remember Ever seeing an avionics bay with only ONE type of avionics in it? I have seen Collins and Bendix as well as Aerospatiale in the same Avionics bay. I think the A320 Avionics bay is about as Diverse as one can get.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 5:39 am

2175301 wrote:
My friend tells me that the Air Current article is a hatched job. That they were in far better shape than that on the project. That every development program has areas where they don't quite know about how some things will work, and that negative comments and incidents can always be found for even the most positive project. It's always possible to write a bad story about anything.

I asked if this was likely more political at this time; and they agreed that could be the case although they were not going to speculate on the motivation of the authors.

Have a great day,


That is "project blindness". If you are on the project team and present the project for decision, you should be convinced that it is ready, that does not mean it really is though. And if they really needed a new cockpit (still not sure why to be honest unless it was again mix and match from existing stuff) and missed the needs on cargo capacity, the project was far from ready.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 7:03 am

It is okay to halt it if it feels not the right way to go. But will Boeing now launch something else entirely new? There were plans for some 787-style narrow body. Couldn't this be sized to fit the bill and maybe even lay the foundation for the next (bigger) narrowbody family?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 3:10 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
So? When were there closed source cockpits? though I don't remember Ever seeing an avionics bay with only ONE type of avionics in it? I have seen Collins and Bendix as well as Aerospatiale in the same Avionics bay. I think the A320 Avionics bay is about as Diverse as one can get.

The term refers to the source information needed to build each board in the bay is open to everyone. This means the software codes, board schematic and other design documents are available to all and sundry. The avionics industry is not close to getting to this state. Some other areas are somewhat closer. For instance I've read of a few efforts to provide mobile telephones that are completely open sourced.

seahawk wrote:
That is "project blindness". If you are on the project team and present the project for decision, you should be convinced that it is ready, that does not mean it really is though. And if they really needed a new cockpit (still not sure why to be honest unless it was again mix and match from existing stuff) and missed the needs on cargo capacity, the project was far from ready.

I would say this is more a case of requirements creep. The requirements changed due to external forces (FAA deciding it won't approve current gen cockpits on new clean sheets) and internal forces (new CEO of Boeing and BCA decide cargo is more important than their predecessors did).
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 3:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
FAA deciding it won't approve current gen cockpits on new clean sheets


I am somehow perplexed how this statement has been developing. I could be very wrong but I have the impression that this started at some press interview of somebody not actually from FAA at all and then that very ambiguous press quote was mangled and massaged several times in here each time changing a little bit what was said and now over the time it has evolved into some kind of a fact when that "fact" is 10th hand rumour at best.

Does there exist any actual direct source to state this as a fact or even anything more than a.net figment of imagination?

And second question. What does "current gen" exactly mean in this context?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 4:00 pm

Ertro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
FAA deciding it won't approve current gen cockpits on new clean sheets


I am somehow perplexed how this statement has been developing. I could be very wrong but I have the impression that this started at some press interview of somebody not actually from FAA at all and then that very ambiguous press quote was mangled and massaged several times in here each time changing a little bit what was said and now over the time it has evolved into some kind of a fact when that "fact" is 10th hand rumour at best.

Does there exist any actual direct source to state this as a fact or even anything more than a.net figment of imagination?

And second question. What does "current gen" exactly mean in this context?

You could be right. No one really knows what FAA is saying about this, a lot is gleaned from context.

Pg 1 of this thread quotes Calhoun:

And he indicated that the lessons learned from the MAX accidents, especially the change in thinking about how flight crews handle emergencies, could have a profound impact on that next new airplane design.

“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

We were told NMA was not going to be much of a technology push but more of a design and manufacturing push, with lots of reuse of 767 tech. That meant current gen 767 cockpit tech. Then Calhoun said this "might" need to be rethought as above, and the quote brings the shortcomings of the MAX with regard to emergency situations, and the profound impact it could have on the next gen airplane design.

It wouldn't surprise me if FAA wasn't making a push for "profound" changes in cockpit tech for the next gen airplanes but I can't produce an official statement of such, so I should probably not have written what I wrote earlier.

Here is one of those times where I wish we hadn't harassed the few Boeing employees who used to give us insights to the point they no longer post on this site, yet the pattern is pretty clear. Someone starts to share some insights, and some nobody takes offense and asserts they know more, then the actual insider says bleep you buddy and leaves.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 6:58 pm

Unfortunately companies just track and fight leaks with bigger effort these days. This is why current employees cannot post anything from inside anymore.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 7:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
So? When were there closed source cockpits? though I don't remember Ever seeing an avionics bay with only ONE type of avionics in it? I have seen Collins and Bendix as well as Aerospatiale in the same Avionics bay. I think the A320 Avionics bay is about as Diverse as one can get.

The term refers to the source information needed to build each board in the bay is open to everyone. This means the software codes, board schematic and other design documents are available to all and sundry. The avionics industry is not close to getting to this state. Some other areas are somewhat closer. For instance I've read of a few efforts to provide mobile telephones that are completely open sourced.

seahawk wrote:
That is "project blindness". If you are on the project team and present the project for decision, you should be convinced that it is ready, that does not mean it really is though. And if they really needed a new cockpit (still not sure why to be honest unless it was again mix and match from existing stuff) and missed the needs on cargo capacity, the project was far from ready.

I would say this is more a case of requirements creep. The requirements changed due to external forces (FAA deciding it won't approve current gen cockpits on new clean sheets) and internal forces (new CEO of Boeing and BCA decide cargo is more important than their predecessors did).


Except from Boeing I have not heard one manufacturer (neither airliner nor biz jet) talking about the need for a new cockpit design. I am believing that the remark that started this was aimed at the MAX and a possible successor and not a requirement for all new commercial planes in the future. We know that the Boeing designs are a bit conservative when it comes to automated system usage in case of a failure. Or manufacturers have more help and have systems that suggest checklists. And if they really wanted to resurrect some 767 tech, it would be the mix and match of the MAX again, but if they really did that, it was their own fault.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri May 22, 2020 7:37 pm

There was an over reliance on pilot awareness and responds. And it saved a lot of time and money to grandfather cockpit design and requirements from previous versions.

Insiders fully supported and defended this design philosophy on thise site, even after the crashes.

FAA finally had to pull the breaks after international experts (JTAR) slammed these practises.

This reaches further than the 737MAX. Also the 777X and NMA /FSA are re evaluated, as we have seen over the last 12 months. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -approval/
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