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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:40 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Pretty much a YES or NO question.

- Common and existing ULDs
- Fuselage perfect width for 6-7-8 abreast
- 200 seat size and a “real” wide body fuselage
- Ease of updating with latest tech efficiencies
- Admirable safety record
- It looks good


That's obviously a big no.

As others have mentioned, Airbus already has a good 200-seat size aircraft with the A321(NEO/LR/XLR). It's not a wide body, but for this size aircraft narrow bodies have proven to be more efficient. Less fuselage material per seat saves weight and thus fuel.

It's true that the A310 has an admirable safety record, however the safety record of the A320-series is even better. Good looks are no valid argument.


I floated the idea on the A310 page that got moderator moved to polls and preferences, that standard ULD’s would Trump a 7 abreast fuselage.

Obviously “8 abreast” is not the future for a 200 seater wide-body from the responses as Boeing goes forward.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
I think Airbus is waiting to see what Boeing will propose. Based on that they will decide if they need a new wing or not. They might want to do an CFRP wing to start of the production lines so they can learn and scale it up later for other single aisle offerings.

Airbus has telegraphed its next move:

Airbus will in June (ed: 2019) begin assembly of the first structure under its Wing of Tomorrow technology demonstrator programme, aimed at developing a composite wing manufacturing concept for a next-generation single-aisle aircraft. The 5m (16ft) part is an initial test article ahead of the planned assembly in 2020 of three full-scale demonstrators at a newly built research centre next to Airbus’s UK wing factory in Broughton, Flintshire.

Although Airbus has not yet launched a replacement for its A320 family, the manufacturer appears keen to employ a carbonfibre wing on any future single-aisle aircraft. Sue Partridge, head of the Wing of Tomorrow programme, told FlightGlobal in April that the goal is for the primary wing structure to be made from carbonfibre, while individual components may be manufactured from advanced metallic or thermoplastic composite materials.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 76.article

TFA goes on to say they expect the evaluation to be done by early 2022. That's when the A321XLRs will begin shipping. Pretty much a point where the development team will need to have something else to do. Heck, if they're smart, they've already considered this new wing as they've been doing the XLR work.

The question becomes then to just keep milking the A320 line as is or get on with mastering a key technology for whatever they plan to do next. My vote is on the later. It'll be interesting to see how it goes down, though. They have a huge backlog of metal A321s to deliver. Would the be able to keep those customers in line if they release an even better A322? Those are rich man problems.

Then I guess we'll find out if this new Boeing VP of Strategy is asleep at the switch or not. The current NLT style proposal sounds like a CFRP 757-200 with current generation engines and systems. What customers are going to be happy to put money up to get one of those? The reward will have to be worth the risk. It's hard to see what could be added to the reward side to make a compelling case. At least NMA had a different cross section that could be helpful for quick turnarounds and longer flights. It seems our future will have a lot of "devil's bowling alleys" in it.

What's NLT stand for? I thought the T was for twin aisle, which makes it somewhat of a misnomer for this current idea.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:10 pm

CFRP wings for the A320? Seems to contradict its secret of success: Evolution not revolution. (After one initial radical approach)

Could they just spread the word to put more pressure on Boeing? If Boeing commits too early to a new program (family) future engines might not be available yet. But any new airplane must be custom tailored to its engines to get out all efficiencies.
Last edited by Noshow on Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:11 pm

DenverTed wrote:
What's NLT stand for? I thought the T was for twin aisle, which makes it somewhat of a misnomer for this current idea.

I thought T was for 'twin engine', but I was wrong, my mistake.

The current 200-250 single aisle approach doesn't seem to be a winner at the buzzword bingo game.

FSA: 160-220 seat single aisle
NLT: 200-240 seat twin aisle
NMA: 220-270 seat twin aisle

Ref: https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... h-a321xlr/

Maybe we should just go with 'plastic 757'?
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
What's NLT stand for? I thought the T was for twin aisle, which makes it somewhat of a misnomer for this current idea.

I thought T was for 'twin engine', but I was wrong, my mistake.

The current 200-250 single aisle approach doesn't seem to be a winner at the buzzword bingo game.

FSA: 160-220 seat single aisle
NLT: 200-240 seat twin aisle
NMA: 220-270 seat twin aisle

Ref: https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... h-a321xlr/

Maybe we should just go with 'plastic 757'?


I like that - the P757.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:31 pm

The New Light Twin strikes me as a modern version of the McDonnel-Douglas ATMR.
 
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A300neo
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:27 pm

Stitch wrote:
The New Light Twin strikes me as a modern version of the McDonnel-Douglas ATMR.

Haha, thanks for that post, didnt know the ATMR before. McD planned that aircraft also in 2-2-2 configuration, funny. However it was of course more comfortable at that time. According to one source McD planned the hull with 170in (4.32m) diameter, so ~50cm//22in more than the B737 (3.76m/148in), Airbus has 3.95m (155.5in) and the MS-21 4.06m/160in.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:32 am

https://twitter.com/sidyoutwit/status/1 ... 49440?s=21

RR seems quite keen to hop on this project.
Do take note this is still extremely preliminary
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:49 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/sidyoutwit/status/1319964122725949440?s=21

RR seems quite keen to hop on this project.
Do take note this is still extremely preliminary

Given the financial state of both entities, perhaps 'P757' actually stands for 'Pauper-Liner 757'?

The article has a good history of recent times, though:

The Boeing concepts included a large single-aisle jet, with a carbon-composite frame, capable of hauling more than 200 travelers across the Atlantic Ocean. Its turbines would produce 50,000-pounds of thrust, the same requirement as the NMA’s engines.

But as the pandemic left Boeing and its largest customers struggling to survive, the talks were tabled and the aerospace titan disbanded the team of more than 1,000 engineers who had been working on futuristic models, including the NMA, said the people.

Since then, a small team has been tending to the design concepts while Boeing focuses on cutting costs and bringing the Max back into commercial service.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... olls-royce

The article has other interesting tidbits I didn't know, like RR has started looking for partners on Ultrafan, and the dates for UltraFan have been pushed out till the end of the decade.

I don't think any of the above should be a surprise to anyone.
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Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:59 pm

Going from 1000 engineers to a small team sounds like Boeing stopped this project after having stopped the NMA before. Something must be ready whenever those 50k engines are. What will compete with the enlarged A321neo on Boeings side? Can they keep qualified staff busy until then and keep the know how they have?
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:14 pm

Noshow wrote:
What will compete with the enlarged A321neo on Boeings side?

Being realistic, no one will capture meaningful new orders for several years, all they will have is more deferrals. IATA says we will not see 2019 passenger levels till 2024 then it usually takes two years for airlines to make new orders. We may have one or two buck the trend but I don't think it'll be significant enough to matter.

As for Boeing even if they wanted an all new plane and could afford to build it, no one would order it till we are back to something close to 2019 levels again, so 2024 or so, and even then they may wait two more years to pay down debt and gain confidence so 2026. Then add four years for it to be designed, built and certified (best case), and it's 2030.

So, till then, Boeing has little choice but soldier on with MAX as its primary narrow body product.
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:36 pm

And still the big question remains unanswered. Does the A321 do so well because it can seat 240 people or fly over the pond, or because the trip costs are very close to an A320 and therefore it offers extra capacity and capability at a very small risk.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/sidyoutwit/status/1319964122725949440?s=21

RR seems quite keen to hop on this project.
Do take note this is still extremely preliminary

It would be cool to see the RR ultrafan introduced as a 45K engine for new aicraft, versus a larger re-engine of the a350.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:17 pm

seahawk wrote:
And still the big question remains unanswered. Does the A321 do so well because it can seat 240 people or fly over the pond, or because the trip costs are very close to an A320 and therefore it offers extra capacity and capability at a very small risk.


Probably a combination of all, with trip costs being #1, capacity #2 and range #3 in that hierarchy.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
And still the big question remains unanswered. Does the A321 do so well because it can seat 240 people or fly over the pond, or because the trip costs are very close to an A320 and therefore it offers extra capacity and capability at a very small risk.

It suggests to me that A320 has a bigger/heavier engine and fan and heavier structure than it needs for those domestic turns it finds itself flying more often than not.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And still the big question remains unanswered. Does the A321 do so well because it can seat 240 people or fly over the pond, or because the trip costs are very close to an A320 and therefore it offers extra capacity and capability at a very small risk.

It suggests to me that A320 has a bigger/heavier engine and fan and heavier structure than it needs for those domestic turns it finds itself flying more often than not.


One could say this. But that shows that Boeing needs to think about what to do next, as Boeing only has the MAx at the moment with no real development potential left. Airbus has a theoretical A225 and A322.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And still the big question remains unanswered. Does the A321 do so well because it can seat 240 people or fly over the pond, or because the trip costs are very close to an A320 and therefore it offers extra capacity and capability at a very small risk.

It suggests to me that A320 has a bigger/heavier engine and fan and heavier structure than it needs for those domestic turns it finds itself flying more often than not.

Sounds like a good argument for an A220-500 and 320.5 to make their way into the AB lineup.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:41 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/sidyoutwit/status/1319964122725949440?s=21

RR seems quite keen to hop on this project.


Please God, for the sake of Boeing...no.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:39 am

DenverTed wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/sidyoutwit/status/1319964122725949440?s=21

RR seems quite keen to hop on this project.
Do take note this is still extremely preliminary

It would be cool to see the RR ultrafan introduced as a 45K engine for new aicraft, versus a larger re-engine of the a350.


I don't think RR has the money to develop a new engine, or even finish the Ultrafan, at the moment.

So, while they may be interested in the concept... My opinion is its a relative non starter.

I'm also not sure that RR's reputation with recent engines would attract many clients. Not saying that the clients would not accept if RR is the only choice. But, the clients will be setting terms and conditions to ensure they are fully covered from another RR fubar.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:32 pm

2175301 wrote:

I'm also not sure that RR's reputation with recent engines would attract many clients. Not saying that the clients would not accept if RR is the only choice. But, the clients will be setting terms and conditions to ensure they are fully covered from another RR fubar.

So what you are saying is your theory applies to RR but should not apply to the way Pratt and Whitney have lurched about in recent years? And still is racking up orders for the GTF engine?

Or GE with their icing issues causing engines to fail in-flight on the GENx, which still sells in healthy numbers?

RR has had difficulty with ONE engine. Now overcome. They just need to point to the Pearl or XWB engines for latest examples of RR output from a newly recapitalised firm with a doubled share price.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:38 pm

A late 2026, early 2027 initial production delivery time phase seems perfect for the current era. With a run up to a full peak in 2028... any narrow body A321 offering will look kind of dated by then.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:59 pm

I think the way forward for Boeing on the NMA is to not only create a new 757 replacement that allows the air frame to be 3-5% fundamentally more fuel efficient than the equivalent A32X ( not enough to justify the development of a new type) but to parallel the development of an aircraft that is similar(think 757/767) but plays the role of the A220 and lower A32X and allow Boeing to have a more integrated narrow body offering.

Fred
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Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:07 pm

It will be the first member or a close relative to what the 737 successor-family will be one day. So they must do it right, including the complex production system. It's not too early to begin now if the late twenties are intended EIS.
There is not much room for error and today they have got experienced staff which would be different if they have to rebuild the development department from scratch in five years time.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:19 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
I think the way forward for Boeing on the NMA is to not only create a new 757 replacement that allows the air frame to be 3-5% fundamentally more fuel efficient than the equivalent A32X ( not enough to justify the development of a new type) but to parallel the development of an aircraft that is similar(think 757/767) but plays the role of the A220 and lower A32X and allow Boeing to have a more integrated narrow body offering.
Fred


Y1 - 1 common 6 abreast carbon fibre fuselage of varying lengths with common interior, avionics, cockpit, other systems
2 sets of carbon fibre wings, two engines of varying thrust, singe and double bogey landing gear packages, two tail and horizontal stablizer sets to create two subfamilies... 73X-752-753 replacement and 73G-739 replacement. I think the K-Man has shared his drawings of this idea for about a decade now.
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:45 am

Channex757 wrote:
2175301 wrote:

I'm also not sure that RR's reputation with recent engines would attract many clients. Not saying that the clients would not accept if RR is the only choice. But, the clients will be setting terms and conditions to ensure they are fully covered from another RR fubar.

So what you are saying is your theory applies to RR but should not apply to the way Pratt and Whitney have lurched about in recent years? And still is racking up orders for the GTF engine?

Or GE with their icing issues causing engines to fail in-flight on the GENx, which still sells in healthy numbers?

RR has had difficulty with ONE engine. Now overcome. They just need to point to the Pearl or XWB engines for latest examples of RR output from a newly recapitalised firm with a doubled share price.


I believe that you are misinformed: RR has now had problems with 3 engines in a row.

1) The 787 engine is the most costly to them so far.
2) RR convinced Emirates to change to RR from EA for the A380 engines with a promise of a major fuel use improvement PIP. RR missed badly and will be paying penalties for as long as Eremites flies those RR engined A380's. At this point this is been fairly costly to RR, although the Covid-19 shutdowns have benefited RR in this case.
3) A350 XWB-84 engines have started to develop cracks in the compressor section well before their expected service life. This is a developing issue and no one yet knows how significant it will turn out to be. However, RR's initial comments seem all to much like their initial comments on the 787 engine.

That all seems a bit more than an engine icing issue on GE engines that have had minuscule, if any, effect on flight operations. I do admit that the Pratt & Witney GTF engine has a problem; but for argument sake its just one engine where P&W missed where RR has 3 engines in a row with difficulties that are costing them significantly at this point (and no one knows the what will be the cost on the XWB-84).

So yes, count me a bit skeptical on RR's abilities to pull something off without noticeable and costly issues.

Have a great day,
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:18 am

2175301 wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
2175301 wrote:

I'm also not sure that RR's reputation with recent engines would attract many clients. Not saying that the clients would not accept if RR is the only choice. But, the clients will be setting terms and conditions to ensure they are fully covered from another RR fubar.

So what you are saying is your theory applies to RR but should not apply to the way Pratt and Whitney have lurched about in recent years? And still is racking up orders for the GTF engine?

Or GE with their icing issues causing engines to fail in-flight on the GENx, which still sells in healthy numbers?

RR has had difficulty with ONE engine. Now overcome. They just need to point to the Pearl or XWB engines for latest examples of RR output from a newly recapitalised firm with a doubled share price.


I believe that you are misinformed: RR has now had problems with 3 engines in a row.

1) The 787 engine is the most costly to them so far.
2) RR convinced Emirates to change to RR from EA for the A380 engines with a promise of a major fuel use improvement PIP. RR missed badly and will be paying penalties for as long as Eremites flies those RR engined A380's. At this point this is been fairly costly to RR, although the Covid-19 shutdowns have benefited RR in this case.
3) A350 XWB-84 engines have started to develop cracks in the compressor section well before their expected service life. This is a developing issue and no one yet knows how significant it will turn out to be. However, RR's initial comments seem all to much like their initial comments on the 787 engine.

That all seems a bit more than an engine icing issue on GE engines that have had minuscule, if any, effect on flight operations. I do admit that the Pratt & Witney GTF engine has a problem; but for argument sake its just one engine where P&W missed where RR has 3 engines in a row with difficulties that are costing them significantly at this point (and no one knows the what will be the cost on the XWB-84).

So yes, count me a bit skeptical on RR's abilities to pull something off without noticeable and costly issues.

Have a great day,


RR's Management, Board, and Investors will be quite cautious on any major programs after 3 in a row with problems. High risk with little capitol to spare. PW could go ahead with limited developments right now if it can fit in the budget.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:54 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
I think the way forward for Boeing on the NMA is to not only create a new 757 replacement that allows the air frame to be 3-5% fundamentally more fuel efficient than the equivalent A32X ( not enough to justify the development of a new type) but to parallel the development of an aircraft that is similar(think 757/767) but plays the role of the A220 and lower A32X and allow Boeing to have a more integrated narrow body offering.
Fred


Y1 - 1 common 6 abreast carbon fibre fuselage of varying lengths with common interior, avionics, cockpit, other systems
2 sets of carbon fibre wings, two engines of varying thrust, singe and double bogey landing gear packages, two tail and horizontal stablizer sets to create two subfamilies... 73X-752-753 replacement and 73G-739 replacement. I think the K-Man has shared his drawings of this idea for about a decade now.


The thing is, if they launch the 73X-752-753 replacement too early (within the next 2 years) a lot of 73X customers will drop out and defer to the new thing. Good for the new thing but this would hurt the 73X a lot and so the 737 program. As exciting a new aircraft would be, Boeing is not in the position to hurt its only cashcow. I write now only cashcow because I strongly think the 737 will go back to make a lot of money in the future. While the 767 also trickles in money, the signs on the 787 look worse. It might also go back to trickling money instead of flushing it. The rate cuts and dry up of orders really hurts. Current developments point towards a lot of good second hand airframes available so who would order more? The rate cuts are here to stretch the current book as far as possible. The only other airline I can see order 787s in the next year is Emirates. But trading 50-75 777X into 75 to 100 787s is not really a win for Boeing.

So Boeing is poisoned to not threaten the 737 for the next 10 years. Luckily Airbus will be happy too and not launch anything to put more pressure on Boeing. From an economics standpoint, keeping status quo at the moment until the crisis is over (so 2025 according to IATA) and then see what the market needs for a launch in 2032+ is the way forward. Everything else is a massive gamble (with government money if the gamble does not play out). That is not in the interest of shareholders and would not be approved by the board. So we have to endure a bad decade development wise... unfortunately.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:51 am

It is likely we will see a A321XLR simple stretch, into a super efficient 250 seat people mover, regardless of what Boeing does. To serve the markets & make money. Investment is low, the supply chain is in place and the markets are asking for it. Without a competitor, a premium could be asked for such an aircraft, burning 13lbs/mi iso of e.g. a 752 17lbs/mi and having ~30% lower operating costs. The 101t MTOW wings, engines, landing are being completed for the XLR. These days investment is a bad idea, unless it is low, ROI is high & you can capture a popular marketsegment short term. Waiting for Boeing to come with something makes no sense at all for Airbus.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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DL717
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:14 pm

With Boeing spinning their wheels, one wonders what an A321 could do with a new 757 type wingspan, a true L2 door, small stretch up front and in back with a bit more fuel in the bigger wing....
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:22 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
The thing is, if they launch the 73X-752-753 replacement too early (within the next 2 years) a lot of 73X customers will drop out and defer to the new thing. Good for the new thing but this would hurt the 73X a lot and so the 737 program. As exciting a new aircraft would be, Boeing is not in the position to hurt its only cashcow. I write now only cashcow because I strongly think the 737 will go back to make a lot of money in the future. While the 767 also trickles in money, the signs on the 787 look worse. It might also go back to trickling money instead of flushing it. The rate cuts and dry up of orders really hurts. Current developments point towards a lot of good second hand airframes available so who would order more? The rate cuts are here to stretch the current book as far as possible. The only other airline I can see order 787s in the next year is Emirates. But trading 50-75 777X into 75 to 100 787s is not really a win for Boeing.

So Boeing is poisoned to not threaten the 737 for the next 10 years. Luckily Airbus will be happy too and not launch anything to put more pressure on Boeing. From an economics standpoint, keeping status quo at the moment until the crisis is over (so 2025 according to IATA) and then see what the market needs for a launch in 2032+ is the way forward. Everything else is a massive gamble (with government money if the gamble does not play out). That is not in the interest of shareholders and would not be approved by the board. So we have to endure a bad decade development wise... unfortunately.

I think that's why the plan is to go for something akin to a plastic 757. It'll be bigger than the biggest MAX with much more range, so it won't compete with MAX. I think the timeline would be no earlier than 2024 for program launch, 2026 even more likely, since the airlines are in crisis mode now and it will take years to dig out of the hole they're in. Same can be said for Boeing and its balance sheet.

Boeing and its partners have little choice but to soldier on with MAX for the bulk of the 2020s, IMO.
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workhorse
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:44 pm

DL717 wrote:
With Boeing spinning their wheels, one wonders what an A321 could do with a new 757 type wingspan, a true L2 door, small stretch up front and in back with a bit more fuel in the bigger wing....


It would kick @$$.

The only thing you need to add to your description is new taller landing gear (to enable a decent rotation angle and to fit future generations of engines). Since the wing is new anyway, it wouldn't be difficult (you could still keep the same bays in the fuselage and only modify the part of the landing gear mechanism that is in the wing). Nose section would have to be modified to accommodate a taller landing gear (and since we're modifying it anyway, why not fit a 350-style cockpit while we're at it?).

So, we have: new state-of-the-art wing (longer range), longer fuselage (bigger capacity), taller landing gear (ability to fit future engines), A350-style cockpit (same pilot pool) while still keeping commonality with the 32S family both manufacturing- and operation-wise! :cloudnine:
 
djpearman
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:04 pm

Reading through this thread gives me the impression that Boeing had already got it right in the year 1981 by introducing the 757 to complement the 737 in the narrowbody segment. All it would have taken is a re-engining in the early 2000's and the 757 would be running rings around the A321neo.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:21 pm

djpearman wrote:
Reading through this thread gives me the impression that Boeing had already got it right in the year 1981 by introducing the 757 to complement the 737 in the narrowbody segment. All it would have taken is a re-engining in the early 2000's and the 757 would be running rings around the A321neo.


The engine OEMs were smart enough to know the 757 was a dead-end program and that the 737/A320 were the future, which is why that is where they put their R&D focus in terms of money and talent to create the LEAP and GTF in the 25-30K thrust range.

And an A321neo would outclass a 757neo with the same family of engines on almost all real-world airline missions, much less a 757 with an engine between the original 757 engines and the modern LEAP/GTF.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:56 am

Noshow wrote:
CFRP wings for the A320? Seems to contradict its secret of success: Evolution not revolution. (After one initial radical approach)

Could they just spread the word to put more pressure on Boeing? If Boeing commits too early to a new program (family) future engines might not be available yet. But any new airplane must be custom tailored to its engines to get out all efficiencies.


You could argue a new (modern tech) wing is an evolutionary step - it sure was for the 737.

Question is, will the current generations in charge spend the money to do this? Both OEM's were way more innovative and less risk-adverse in 1984 than 2000-present.
 
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:25 am

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
Noshow wrote:
CFRP wings for the A320? Seems to contradict its secret of success: Evolution not revolution. (After one initial radical approach)

Could they just spread the word to put more pressure on Boeing? If Boeing commits too early to a new program (family) future engines might not be available yet. But any new airplane must be custom tailored to its engines to get out all efficiencies.


You could argue a new (modern tech) wing is an evolutionary step - it sure was for the 737.

Question is, will the current generations in charge spend the money to do this? Both OEM's were way more innovative and less risk-adverse in 1984 than 2000-present.


You mean both the surviving OEM's. We no longer have Mcdonell Douglas, Lockheed, Fokker, and others that were around in 1984.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:39 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
Noshow wrote:
CFRP wings for the A320? Seems to contradict its secret of success: Evolution not revolution. (After one initial radical approach)

Could they just spread the word to put more pressure on Boeing? If Boeing commits too early to a new program (family) future engines might not be available yet. But any new airplane must be custom tailored to its engines to get out all efficiencies.


You could argue a new (modern tech) wing is an evolutionary step - it sure was for the 737.

Question is, will the current generations in charge spend the money to do this? Both OEM's were way more innovative and less risk-adverse in 1984 than 2000-present.


You mean both the surviving OEM's. We no longer have Mcdonell Douglas, Lockheed, Fokker, and others that were around in 1984.


Correct. I also picked '84 as it was when the 320 wing design freeze happened (first metal cut in '85).
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:52 am

But that A320 wing got seriously modified since then. Sharklets, structure, engine, high lift and MTOW.
 
max999
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:32 am

The Seattle Times says Boeing does not have enough cash or the right talent to develop a brand new design. Also, the article says the current product lineup is uncompetitive and it is not what the airlines need. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... g-outlook/

Though the Wall Street Journal reported last week that Boeing is beginning to look at an all-new airplane design that would challenge the runaway success of the Airbus A321neo, aviation experts are very skeptical.

Bernstein Research analyst Doug Harned called the notion “absurd.”

“Boeing is burning cash at levels never seen before, at a time when demand has vanished,” Harned told investors. “Major new investments at this time would make no sense.”

Rob Spingarn, a Credit Suisse analyst, added that with the job cuts in Washington state including the retirements of many older, more experienced workers, Boeing may now lack “the requisite talent to successfully launch a commercially viable clean sheet aircraft.”
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FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:52 am

Revelation wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The thing is, if they launch the 73X-752-753 replacement too early (within the next 2 years) a lot of 73X customers will drop out and defer to the new thing. Good for the new thing but this would hurt the 73X a lot and so the 737 program. As exciting a new aircraft would be, Boeing is not in the position to hurt its only cashcow. I write now only cashcow because I strongly think the 737 will go back to make a lot of money in the future. While the 767 also trickles in money, the signs on the 787 look worse. It might also go back to trickling money instead of flushing it. The rate cuts and dry up of orders really hurts. Current developments point towards a lot of good second hand airframes available so who would order more? The rate cuts are here to stretch the current book as far as possible. The only other airline I can see order 787s in the next year is Emirates. But trading 50-75 777X into 75 to 100 787s is not really a win for Boeing.

So Boeing is poisoned to not threaten the 737 for the next 10 years. Luckily Airbus will be happy too and not launch anything to put more pressure on Boeing. From an economics standpoint, keeping status quo at the moment until the crisis is over (so 2025 according to IATA) and then see what the market needs for a launch in 2032+ is the way forward. Everything else is a massive gamble (with government money if the gamble does not play out). That is not in the interest of shareholders and would not be approved by the board. So we have to endure a bad decade development wise... unfortunately.

I think that's why the plan is to go for something akin to a plastic 757. It'll be bigger than the biggest MAX with much more range, so it won't compete with MAX. I think the timeline would be no earlier than 2024 for program launch, 2026 even more likely, since the airlines are in crisis mode now and it will take years to dig out of the hole they're in. Same can be said for Boeing and its balance sheet.

Boeing and its partners have little choice but to soldier on with MAX for the bulk of the 2020s, IMO.


How big do you see the market for such an aircraft? If it is that "big" and optimised for long range, it will be really uncompetitive on short routes. So the market will be the routes an XLR (or MAX-9ER) cant perform while a WB will be too much of an aircraft. In my opinion there is not a lot of market left then.

The real deal would be a MAX-10 sized aircraft with more range but still able to do short bulk routes. Versatility will be sold more than specialisation. I just can not see a business case (especially in the current environment) of this plastic 757. In 10 years+ when the 737 has to go, then yes but short term I feel it will be a money burner that will actually hurt Boeings future in the 2030s.

I think the whole MOM concept has to be abandoned. Right now it is time to perfect the products at hand, make a 787-8F, upgrade the 737-9, finish the 777X (even tho I can not see how this program will make money, but having it to keep Airbus in check similar to the 747-8 will be fine) and slowly work towards a new 180-250 pax aircraft family that will have EIS in 2035.

It is the decade of healing right now. For everyone, OEMs and airlines. New things will not work, but upgrading your lineup will be the goal.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:59 am

max999 wrote:
The Seattle Times says Boeing does not have enough cash or the right talent to develop a brand new design. Also, the article says the current product lineup is uncompetitive and it is not what the airlines need. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... g-outlook/

Though the Wall Street Journal reported last week that Boeing is beginning to look at an all-new airplane design that would challenge the runaway success of the Airbus A321neo, aviation experts are very skeptical.

Bernstein Research analyst Doug Harned called the notion “absurd.”

“Boeing is burning cash at levels never seen before, at a time when demand has vanished,” Harned told investors. “Major new investments at this time would make no sense.”

Rob Spingarn, a Credit Suisse analyst, added that with the job cuts in Washington state including the retirements of many older, more experienced workers, Boeing may now lack “the requisite talent to successfully launch a commercially viable clean sheet aircraft.”

That’s not completely true. The 777x at this time yes not needed. The MAX yes. The article actually urges Boeing to get the MAX back up because that is what customers need. The 777X is not. The article points out that Boeing in itself is not competitive due to the MAX debacle not that the MAX is an uncompetitive jet how can you say the product lineup is not what airlines need when there’s the MAX? Which is anything anybody is willing to take . Not necessarily that it’s products aren’t competitive. In fact they go on to say that the MAX is a fantastic jet that will sell well. It won’t sell 6000 jets at this point. Boeing does not need to focus on competing with Airbus. It needs to focus on its on lane right now.
 
workhorse
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:30 am

keesje wrote:
I think the A321XLR, with it's bumped 101t MTOW and 4700NM range is the basis for a A322NEO, adding 4-5 rows. No new wings, landing gears required. The A321XLR modified wing, gears already provide what is needed, trading range for capacity.


With all due respect, I do not agree with you (something that doesn't happen often for me!).

A 322 with the same wing and the same landing gear would be an Airbus 737-900 - half-assed quick and dirty fix that's just not ambitious and good enough. Boeing will make dog food out of it with a clean sheet.

On the other hand, a 322 with longer range and 320-like takeoff performance would effectively kill the 788, seriously push the 789 and be a good competitor to the future NMA/757neo/757v2 or whatever Boeing is working on right now.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:25 pm

workhorse wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think the A321XLR, with it's bumped 101t MTOW and 4700NM range is the basis for a A322NEO, adding 4-5 rows. No new wings, landing gears required. The A321XLR modified wing, gears already provide what is needed, trading range for capacity.


With all due respect, I do not agree with you (something that doesn't happen often for me!).

A 322 with the same wing and the same landing gear would be an Airbus 737-900 - half-assed quick and dirty fix that's just not ambitious and good enough. Boeing will make dog food out of it with a clean sheet.

On the other hand, a 322 with longer range and 320-like takeoff performance would effectively kill the 788, seriously push the 789 and be a good competitor to the future NMA/757neo/757v2 or whatever Boeing is working on right now.


I think a A322 NEO;
- with 250 seats,
- 3700NM range (more than most NB's),
- affordable, mass produced,
- A320 like take-off performance (like XLR)
- assembled in US, Europe and China,
- with 98% commonality with the longer range A321XLR
- Available 2024

Why spend so much (new wing etc.) on offering the extra (niche) range 3700-4700NM, already offered by the A321 XLR and many cargo capable 787s, A330 already with the customers? Nobody ever complained the A321, A321NEO offered too little range. 3500NM was enough to sell them by the thousands. Average NB stage length these days is < 1000NM.

I think Boeing better focussed or a moonshot 150-200 ultra efficient NB, beating the A320. Instead of a capable SUV serving niche markets.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:45 pm

workhorse wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think the A321XLR, with it's bumped 101t MTOW and 4700NM range is the basis for a A322NEO, adding 4-5 rows. No new wings, landing gears required. The A321XLR modified wing, gears already provide what is needed, trading range for capacity.


With all due respect, I do not agree with you (something that doesn't happen often for me!).

A 322 with the same wing and the same landing gear would be an Airbus 737-900 - half-assed quick and dirty fix that's just not ambitious and good enough. Boeing will make dog food out of it with a clean sheet.

On the other hand, a 322 with longer range and 320-like takeoff performance would effectively kill the 788, seriously push the 789 and be a good competitor to the future NMA/757neo/757v2 or whatever Boeing is working on right now.

As I wrote fairly recently, Airbus has telegraphed its next move:

Airbus will in June (ed: 2019) begin assembly of the first structure under its Wing of Tomorrow technology demonstrator programme, aimed at developing a composite wing manufacturing concept for a next-generation single-aisle aircraft. The 5m (16ft) part is an initial test article ahead of the planned assembly in 2020 of three full-scale demonstrators at a newly built research centre next to Airbus’s UK wing factory in Broughton, Flintshire.

Although Airbus has not yet launched a replacement for its A320 family, the manufacturer appears keen to employ a carbonfibre wing on any future single-aisle aircraft. Sue Partridge, head of the Wing of Tomorrow programme, told FlightGlobal in April that the goal is for the primary wing structure to be made from carbonfibre, while individual components may be manufactured from advanced metallic or thermoplastic composite materials.

Ref: https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 76.article

TFA goes on to say they expect the evaluation to be done by early 2022. That's when the A321XLRs will begin shipping. Pretty much a point where the development team will need to have something else to do. Heck, if they're smart, they've already considered this new wing as they've been doing the XLR work.

The question becomes then to just keep milking the A320 line as is or get on with mastering a key technology for whatever they plan to do next. My vote is on the later. It'll be interesting to see how it goes down, though. They have a huge backlog of metal A321s to deliver. Would the be able to keep those customers in line if they release an even better A322? Those are rich man problems.

FluidFlow wrote:
How big do you see the market for such an aircraft? If it is that "big" and optimised for long range, it will be really uncompetitive on short routes. So the market will be the routes an XLR (or MAX-9ER) cant perform while a WB will be too much of an aircraft. In my opinion there is not a lot of market left then.

Boeing's thinking is they already have the plane optimized for the smaller and short range stuff, it's the MAX.

I guess your whole market positioning strategy is influenced by how much you really believe that or not.

I think your point about the broken market is true. I just think Boeing will recover by pumping out MAXes and using the plastic 757 as a bridge to whatever replaces MAX. It is in essence NMA reborn in a 757 form factor.

Of course just like NMA there's no guarantee this concept will become reality.

Noshow wrote:
But that A320 wing got seriously modified since then. Sharklets, structure, engine, high lift and MTOW.

Right, but the planform and mold lines are largely unchanged. That's why they're spending $millions and years to find room for more fuel in the fuselage. The main opportunity for future optimization is in the wing, and as above, they're already working on that.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:46 pm

keesje wrote:
workhorse wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think the A321XLR, with it's bumped 101t MTOW and 4700NM range is the basis for a A322NEO, adding 4-5 rows. No new wings, landing gears required. The A321XLR modified wing, gears already provide what is needed, trading range for capacity.


With all due respect, I do not agree with you (something that doesn't happen often for me!).

A 322 with the same wing and the same landing gear would be an Airbus 737-900 - half-assed quick and dirty fix that's just not ambitious and good enough. Boeing will make dog food out of it with a clean sheet.

On the other hand, a 322 with longer range and 320-like takeoff performance would effectively kill the 788, seriously push the 789 and be a good competitor to the future NMA/757neo/757v2 or whatever Boeing is working on right now.


I think a A322 NEO;
- with 250 seats,
- 3700NM range (more than most NB's),
- affordable, mass produced,
- A320 like take-off performance (like XLR)
- assembled in US, Europe and China,
- with 98% commonality with the longer range A321XLR
- Available 2024

Why spend so much (new wing etc.) on offering the extra (niche) range 3700-4700NM, already offered by the A321 XLR and many cargo capable 787s, A330 already with the customers? Nobody ever complained the A321, A321NEO offered too little range. 3500NM was enough to sell them by the thousands. Average NB stage length these days is < 1000NM.

I think Boeing better focussed or a moonshot 150-200 ultra efficient NB, beating the A320. Instead of a capable SUV serving niche markets.


I think you are being very optimistic on the range. I have to find the article again but it has been referenced many times in these discussions. Using real winds - LR passenger weight assumptions not SR ones (Airbus is putting there thumb on scale somewhat with that one when quoting 4,700NM with 200 passengers) and some cargo - you are looking in reality at about 3,800 NM for an XLR at about 170 seats.

An 322 would be lucky to get to 3,000 NM with 250 seats. It needs a new larger wing. Which is not a bad idea.

There is a market for something of 322/323 size with actual Transatlantic range.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:03 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
I think the whole MOM concept has to be abandoned. Right now it is time to perfect the products at hand, make a 787-8F, upgrade the 737-9, finish the 777X (even tho I can not see how this program will make money, but having it to keep Airbus in check similar to the 747-8 will be fine) and slowly work towards a new 180-250 pax aircraft family that will have EIS in 2035.

It is the decade of healing right now. For everyone, OEMs and airlines. New things will not work, but upgrading your lineup will be the goal.


I would agree - this is the option Boeing should consider if they do not go with a new design - however that has some pretty bad implications for Everett as 777x won't get a lot of investment.

I can see an 738ER having more promise than 739ER though with -10 MTOW and gear/wing.

An A321XLR can only take 170ish Passengers at maximum range with real winds - call it 3,800nm. In effect they have excess cabin space that is wasted and the extra exits don't help. Although a lot easier to get sleepers in them due to the extra fuselage length.

AC gets 169 in an 738 with 16 upfront at 38" pitch and 153 in the back at 30-34" - so maybe take a row out and get down to low 160's vs 170. Lower MTOW than XLR - it won't go as far but the extra range should really help.

787-8F and 788ER makes sense as well.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:23 pm

The thing is, if they launch the 73X-752-753 replacement too early (within the next 2 years) a lot of 73X customers will drop out and defer to the new thing. Good for the new thing but this would hurt the 73X a lot and so the 737 program. As exciting a new aircraft would be, Boeing is not in the position to hurt its only cashcow. I write now only cashcow because I strongly think the 737 will go back to make a lot of money in the future.


Under normal circumstances, I'd completely agree with you. However, these aren't normal times. The MAX will never gain quite the popularity nor earn quite the profit that Boeing originally envisioned. The 777X will become a good, solid, reliable performer but as the world transitions away from larger transports like the A380 and 747, more than likely fewer of them will be sold. So, what is Boeing to do? Better to work on an all new narrowbody/MOM/whatever and have it more or less ready to go when the world economy begins to seriously recover post-Covid in a few years. Older amortized yet less fuel efficient metal will need replacing and Airbus can't fulfill every order. This will allow them to keep the MAX in production for the foreseeable future, earn well-needed money from that, and then start to pivot to a new aircraft family. As I said in a previous thread, the timing has got to be right and the execution needs to be well-nigh perfect, but if Boeing can manage it they can steal a serious march on Airbus. As with all things, time will tell.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:25 pm

max999 wrote:
The Seattle Times says Boeing does not have enough cash or the right talent to develop a brand new design.


I think the words "Brand New Design" is the key.

They may not have the talent or the cash to develop a new moonshot program right now at the bleeding edge.

What may be achievable however is downsizing existing 787/777x tech/aero/wing design in an P757.

You are not creating anything new - just reusing what you know. This does not require genius.

Build as much of it in Everett as you can using the new Composites plant to save on Transport costs.

Use the Everett 787 line to build it on with a refinement of the 787 production process and gain learning for the MAX replacement later on. Production cost could be lower than an A322 at least labour costs.

Use 777x/787 systems/cockpit tech, wing design and 777X folding tips to get it into 737/A320 gates. Airbus may be hard pressed to build an Composite Folding Wing A322 competitor putting it at a big disadvantage or at least not as fast as a straight winged version. A folding wing A322 could EIS the same time as a clean sheet from Boeing (using existing tech).

Scaled up LEAP engines - A322/A323 lengths 5,500 NM/5,000NM 110Tish MTOW.

It would still take 6-8 years to hit the market - not a big cash outlay now as the engineers really aren't doing much after 777x, 737-10 are done and really no investment in facilities are needed. Investments needed more in 2024-2026.

It does not need to be super high volume as it can be the basis of a smaller non folding winged version launched in the later half of the 2020's to replace MAX 7,8, 10. The program can be considered as one and you can amortize the development costs over the whole program. Program cost accounting comes to the rescue.

To be built in Renton in the early 2030's when a new SA engine should be available.

Production cost/sales price could be the key in future. Not bleeding edge performance. This hurt the 787 initially until they got cost of it with materials substitution and is hurting the A350 right now - it's a real hot rod but very expensive to produce.
Last edited by morrisond on Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Noshow
Posts: 1924
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:28 pm

You think they will still use Renton for a future program? I am not sure. It's very valuable land at the seaside that could be sold after selling Longacres.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:28 pm

I was persuaded by the twin aisle tight 8, comfortable 7 abreast NMA, abusable down to 1500 NMA at 275(?) passengers, also abusable at 6 abreast going 5000 miles, but super for a variety of sizes, 2500-4500 NM. Boeing seems to have determined that it could not be built at a competitive price. (I have my doubts, more that Boeing stock was artificially high priced, and such a plane would not maintain that stock value - but I am not an expert). But what is not in doubt is that Boeing's current lineup per Gate's articles and innumerable other experts is not competitive against Airbus. A sad new reality. I and most of Seattle mourn.
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morrisond
Posts: 2946
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:32 pm

Noshow wrote:
You think they will still use Renton for a future program? I am not sure. It's very valuable land at the seaside that could be sold after selling Longacres.


I actually kind of doubt it as well - I was just being kind. They will keep something in Washington - Everett seems to be the more logical spot given recent investments and lots of space and if they Automate production enough (to reduce labour costs) they could make the MAX replacement there as well.

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