aumaverick
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:16 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Neither. It was all about driving out cost and increasing revenue from the existing product lines as a result of the delays and expense incurred from the 787. Wall Street and the investors wanted to squeeze out maximum profitability which meant very little appetite to innovate and invest in something new, regardless of the impact from 1997 or a rudderless C-suite.
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Elementalism
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:25 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Looking back at the past 20 years Boeing has made some poor strategic decisions and one really good one with the 787. And the 787 was at the beginning of this slide imo. So what has happened at boeings upper management since about 2005?
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:29 pm

IADCA wrote:
which is fine and laudable, but by the time you got it in the air, Airbus would be planning for the future, as well as having whatever incremental improvements already baked into the 320N series.


That's true every time you launch a product... you are almost suggesting Boeing can never build another narrow body because Airbus will follow with a better A360.... and then if they build a proper mom..... airbus will follow with a better A370... etc, etc...
learning never stops...

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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Elementalism wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Looking back at the past 20 years Boeing has made some poor strategic decisions and one really good one with the 787. And the 787 was at the beginning of this slide imo. So what has happened at boeings upper management since about 2005?


To me, the rudderlessness of Boeing probably was in its full peak 5,6, or maybe even 7 years ago. Thanks for pointing out the 787 difficulties as a reminder.
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:40 pm

Wish they had just stayed the course with Y1, Y2 and Y3. Oh well. Noncompetitive 737MAX to push off doing a proper Y1, Too big 777X/748 to push off doing a proper Y3. At least Y2 got it right... and a NEO/Gen2 of that will only improve it later!
learning never stops...

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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:40 pm

It is difficult to distinguish the corporate speak from the news. He is skilled. Suppose the frame of the NMA is ok. What kind of project will it be to put mid 21st century sensors and other technologies on it. This could be big. Or just hot air
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:57 pm

IAmGaroott wrote:
So we’re looking at a clean-sheet aircraft with probably two or three variants with a capacity and range between the 738 and 753.

I guess we’ll see a teased up E195 E2 to replace the 737-7. Can the E2s even be lengthened?

I think it's a much bigger re-think than that.

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun "has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would "build upon what has been learned ... in design and production."

So more or less a potential reboot, but of course influenced by what they've been learning as they have been cooking up NMA.

As for where NMA was left:

In further evidence of a change of pace, people familiar with the matter said a meeting between Boeing and a major potential supplier, originally scheduled for next week, had been abruptly cancelled with no new date set.

That contrasts with the approach just weeks ago when Boeing was still presenting new details of the NMA to some airlines, including a working logo - "theNMA" - and details of an "advanced composite" structure, according to a slide seen by Reuters.

The NMA had been designed to address a slender gap between single-aisle workhorse jets like the 737 MAX and long-haul wide-body jets like the 787.

But most of the effort revolved around a new production system designed not only to support the NMA but to lay the groundwork for the next single-aisle aircraft after the 737 MAX.

So it seems they were marching down the path we were told NMA would follow until Calhoun made his pronouncement.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM
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TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:02 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it was the most unneeded statement in a long time, but it smells like the Boeing we know and not in a good way.

1. our main fault was that we underestimated the incompetence of others
2. we had one super new plane coming but we will now stop it and turn it into something even more amazing
3. we have no problems we need to fix

Well, with (3) he admits there is a trust issue to be resolved, but at the same time sticks to the old line that it wasn't about profit over safety it was just an engineering misjudgment, and also suggests we ignore the idiot with the potty mouth who drinks too much and sends problematic emails yet undermines the rest of the party line.


That interview is just so demoralizing if you're a Boeing engineer. He threw all of Boeing's passionate engineers under the proverbial bus while not giving an ounce on the wilful malfeasance of management and the Board. There's a lot of things I would like to call him. I can't put them on this forum.
Last edited by TObound on Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:14 pm

TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary.

People including myself think that because the ECAM saves time in an emergency because a checklist for a problem will show up immediately if there is a problem, and the ECAM has timers for the AGENTS and ENG MASTER switches.
NL: Bij de landing is full reverse het leukst!

EN: Full reverse is the best at touchdown!
 
IADCA
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:20 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
IADCA wrote:
which is fine and laudable, but by the time you got it in the air, Airbus would be planning for the future, as well as having whatever incremental improvements already baked into the 320N series.


That's true every time you launch a product... you are almost suggesting Boeing can never build another narrow body because Airbus will follow with a better A360.... and then if they build a proper mom..... airbus will follow with a better A370... etc, etc...


No, I'm suggesting that aiming squarely at the center of the A320 size segment might be a problem because Airbus is so far ahead in that range at this point. Aiming for an aircraft optimized slightly differently would likely guarantee a floor level of sales. Either that, or you need to somehow blow the A320neo out of the water, which realistically isn't possible in the near term without a substantial powerplant innovation, and even going all-CFRP probably isn't going to get there, especially once you factor in whatever PIPs Airbus rolls out. Basically, the problem is that Boeing [i]has[i/] to do something, and Airbus has the luxury of reacting to that while also making a ton of money in the same segment that is giving Boeing huge problems.

Yes, it's possible Boeing overcomes this, but look at what happened with the 787: huge new program, carbon fiber body, still lost a decent chunk of orders to A330neo and then has A350 on the top end. However, the 787 sits in a nice size range where, for some applications, it's a fantastically efficient aircraft. That differentiation really saves it going forward.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:22 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
In the end it was the most unneeded statement in a long time, but it smells like the Boeing we know and not in a good way.

1. our main fault was that we underestimated the incompetence of others
2. we had one super new plane coming but we will now stop it and turn it into something even more amazing
3. we have no problems we need to fix

Well, with (3) he admits there is a trust issue to be resolved, but at the same time sticks to the old line that it wasn't about profit over safety it was just an engineering misjudgment, and also suggests we ignore the idiot with the potty mouth who drinks too much and sends problematic emails yet undermines the rest of the party line.


That interview is just so demoralizing if you're a Boeing engineer. He threw all of Boeing's passionate engineers under the proverbial bus while not giving an ounce on the wilful malfeasance of management and the Board. There's a lot of things I would like to call him. I can't put them on this forum.
I think it is a good signal for Boeing that the new CEO has decided to put already made plans into question. It might be the clean sweeping that Boeing requires urgently.

And yes, the markets have changed and mad that leads to a new approach?

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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:26 pm

TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....

One could poke the bear and say the 737 is NOT a modern airliner :duck:
 
Nick614
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:29 pm

If Boeing is smart "NMA" will be a pair of aircraft, 737 & 757/767 replacement.
 
DDR
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:33 pm

So, is this thing going to be narrow or wide body?
 
Oykie
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:37 pm

In the interview he says the new CEO says that the 737 MAX will stay on for a full generation. After all the scrutiny I’m sure it will be a super good airplane. But that statement together with starting the NMA from scratch have made me wonder if Boeing will continue with a 767 engine update slotted around with EIS in 2025.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:59 pm

Oykie wrote:
In the interview he says the new CEO says that the 737 MAX will stay on for a full generation. After all the scrutiny I’m sure it will be a super good airplane. But that statement together with starting the NMA from scratch have made me wonder if Boeing will continue with a 767 engine update slotted around with EIS in 2025.
that upgrade on 767 was apparently freighter only.

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morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
So we’re looking at a clean-sheet aircraft with probably two or three variants with a capacity and range between the 738 and 753.

I guess we’ll see a teased up E195 E2 to replace the 737-7. Can the E2s even be lengthened?

I think it's a much bigger re-think than that.

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun "has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would "build upon what has been learned ... in design and production."

So more or less a potential reboot, but of course influenced by what they've been learning as they have been cooking up NMA.

As for where NMA was left:

In further evidence of a change of pace, people familiar with the matter said a meeting between Boeing and a major potential supplier, originally scheduled for next week, had been abruptly cancelled with no new date set.

That contrasts with the approach just weeks ago when Boeing was still presenting new details of the NMA to some airlines, including a working logo - "theNMA" - and details of an "advanced composite" structure, according to a slide seen by Reuters.

The NMA had been designed to address a slender gap between single-aisle workhorse jets like the 737 MAX and long-haul wide-body jets like the 787.

But most of the effort revolved around a new production system designed not only to support the NMA but to lay the groundwork for the next single-aisle aircraft after the 737 MAX.

So it seems they were marching down the path we were told NMA would follow until Calhoun made his pronouncement.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM


I think it will still look like an NMA - just be a lot more automated and more likely closer to the tight light 7W concept than anything that is Bigger or 8W, which can be reused for NSA as well down the road with Boeing Brazil doing something smaller up to 738 in size - probably 5W with the same control system, modelled off of the 777x/787 but with the above more automation, and much ore comprehensive linkage to the ground and remote diagnosis/help.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:17 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Delta 767 replacements will probably be the A330-800. Other airlines will evaluate 787 vs A330.
Neither are imo ideal for this market. Too big.


An A338 and A321 combination will be most likely IMHO.
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TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:23 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary.

People including myself think that because the ECAM saves time in an emergency because a checklist for a problem will show up immediately if there is a problem, and the ECAM has timers for the AGENTS and ENG MASTER switches.


People really, really should read the article I posted about A220 cockpit earlier:

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... next-level

ECAM is old news at this point. It's going to be older than some of the pilots flying A320s today. ECAM is not even the starting point for what a cockpit should look like. The starting point is what you read in the above article.

WayexTDI wrote:
TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....

One could poke the bear and say the 737 is NOT a modern airliner :duck:


It isn't. It's 60's vintage airplane with 90s avionics. And the only reason it's gotten away with not having features that modern airliners have, is grandfathering. I wish regulators would simply mandate fully redundant FBW, glass cockpits, electronic checklists, centralized crew alerting, etc. It sucks that airlines can get away with buying under-equipped airliners and then thundering them in with pax in the back.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:33 pm

morrisond wrote:
Revelation wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
So we’re looking at a clean-sheet aircraft with probably two or three variants with a capacity and range between the 738 and 753.

I guess we’ll see a teased up E195 E2 to replace the 737-7. Can the E2s even be lengthened?

I think it's a much bigger re-think than that.

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun "has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would "build upon what has been learned ... in design and production."

So more or less a potential reboot, but of course influenced by what they've been learning as they have been cooking up NMA.

As for where NMA was left:

In further evidence of a change of pace, people familiar with the matter said a meeting between Boeing and a major potential supplier, originally scheduled for next week, had been abruptly cancelled with no new date set.

That contrasts with the approach just weeks ago when Boeing was still presenting new details of the NMA to some airlines, including a working logo - "theNMA" - and details of an "advanced composite" structure, according to a slide seen by Reuters.

The NMA had been designed to address a slender gap between single-aisle workhorse jets like the 737 MAX and long-haul wide-body jets like the 787.

But most of the effort revolved around a new production system designed not only to support the NMA but to lay the groundwork for the next single-aisle aircraft after the 737 MAX.

So it seems they were marching down the path we were told NMA would follow until Calhoun made his pronouncement.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM


I think it will still look like an NMA - just be a lot more automated and more likely closer to the tight light 7W concept than anything that is Bigger or 8W, which can be reused for NSA as well down the road with Boeing Brazil doing something smaller up to 738 in size - probably 5W with the same control system, modelled off of the 777x/787 but with the above more automation, and much ore comprehensive linkage to the ground and remote diagnosis/help.


If folding wingtips have done well on the 777X then a 7ab 250-seater widebody that fits into Code C gates could well be possible. That would be huge.
 
klkla
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:10 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Airbus hasn't been any less risk adverse during this time. They put new engines on the A320 and A330 and basically copied the 787 with some different tweaks in the A350.

Boeing was out performing Airbus in financial performance before the 737Max debacle.
 
889091
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think it's a much bigger re-think than that.

A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun "has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would "build upon what has been learned ... in design and production."


Last sentence - is he implying that they'll be bringing the majority back in-house again or will BCA continue to subcontract it out to the lowest bidder, etc, etc....
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:49 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Would be interesting if Boeing adapts Embraer’s FBW flight control system.

And how does Embraer’s FBW work? I don’t think Boeing will exactly copy Embraer’s FBW, they will most likely tweak it in my opinion.


Why are you all acting as if Boeing hasn't built FBW aircraft?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:04 am

TObound wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think it's a much bigger re-think than that.


So more or less a potential reboot, but of course influenced by what they've been learning as they have been cooking up NMA.

As for where NMA was left:


So it seems they were marching down the path we were told NMA would follow until Calhoun made his pronouncement.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZL2RM


I think it will still look like an NMA - just be a lot more automated and more likely closer to the tight light 7W concept than anything that is Bigger or 8W, which can be reused for NSA as well down the road with Boeing Brazil doing something smaller up to 738 in size - probably 5W with the same control system, modelled off of the 777x/787 but with the above more automation, and much ore comprehensive linkage to the ground and remote diagnosis/help.


If folding wingtips have done well on the 777X then a 7ab 250-seater widebody that fits into Code C gates could well be possible. That would be huge.


Yes it would be - and with even more efficient engines available later this decade - that means less fuel to go the same distance which means less weight which means less wingspan making Code C gates entirely possible.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:09 am

aumaverick wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market.



Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed)

Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to follow to replace 737 with 787-3 to replace 757 / 767-200
787 project badly mishandled
Boeing kills 787-3
Mishandled 787 project kills 737 replacement, so Boeing builds MAX
MAX doesn't cut it at upper capacity end, Boeing gets caned by A321 / A321NEO
Airbus builds 757 replacement in A321LR / XLR
Boeing then decides to build NMA to compete in market segment it declared dead but can't close business case partly because of A321 / A321NEO / A321LR / A321 XLR
MAX gets grounded
MAX grounding turns into money munching nightmare
Boeing kills NMA ceding 757 / large NB market to Airbus
MAX is on deathwatch, whole project is at risk

So 15 years of Boeing strategy have gotten them... well, not very far actually, 787 sure, but MAX is EOL, NMA pushed out to end of 2020's until which time Boeing will not have a competitive offering in the large NB / small WB sector.

RickNRoll wrote:

That doesn't make sense. The NMA would have had modern flight control systems, like the 777 and 787 already have.


Seems obvious, though not to all.


You forgot one very key strategic move that wound up biting Boeing: the campaign to kill the C-Series/A220. Their hopes of killing a competitor to the low-end of the 737 failed, and now there are 400+ sales of the A220 squeezing them from the low end.

And as Boeing is really in a pickle trying to engineer a cleans-heet aircraft to fight both the low and high-range. From the A220 on the low end against the 737-800/MAX8, to the A321 LR/XLR on the high end against the 737 MAX 10/757-200, and even the A330-800 NEO on the 757-300-767-200/300 front. Round and round we go on discussions regarding size and technology to be considered but where is Boeing really focusing their attention?


You are right of course, the C Series attack was a huge misjudgment that has cost them dearly but thats Boeing management, aggressive to the point of stupidity. They could have been launching the -500 and converting MAX customers to the new 717 line of aircraft but instead they pushed them into Airbuses arms who bought them for pennies.
BV
 
rbavfan
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:17 am

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
TObound wrote:
That Rockwell Collins Pro Line Fusion cockpit sounds fantastic. Maybe Boeing should simply go off-the-shelf with this one and outsource the cockpit to RC.

Given how many pilots learn to fly or build multi-IFR time on King Airs and how prolific that RC product is proving elsewhere, they could probably reduce training time doing that.

Seems they are already paying Collins to do the heavy lifting on the 737 flight control computer, might as well be paying for a modern product, one that is being used by so many other products.

Maybe they can go for a common type rating with A220? :biggrin: :stirthepot:

It does run counter to the (previous ?) strategy of trying to capture a larger share of the lifetime spend on the airframe i.e. squeeze the vendors harder.


We have open source and increasingly common interface and operating philosophies on many other technologies. Why not airliners?

I'd love to see all these airframers outsource cockpits to avionics shops who work to common design standards and layouts. The industry's goal should be a standard cockpit for everything from a 50-seater to a double decker jumbo. Similar control laws. Everything. Create an industry forum who will dictate best practices and work to that.

Won't ever happen because then the OEMs can't hold their large customers hostage. But I am a crazy dreamer like that.


That would limit innovation that has added to safety over the years. A new idea that allows closer flight paths could take twice as long as it already does as it goes through commity.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:47 am

rbavfan wrote:
TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seems they are already paying Collins to do the heavy lifting on the 737 flight control computer, might as well be paying for a modern product, one that is being used by so many other products.

Maybe they can go for a common type rating with A220? :biggrin: :stirthepot:

It does run counter to the (previous ?) strategy of trying to capture a larger share of the lifetime spend on the airframe i.e. squeeze the vendors harder.


We have open source and increasingly common interface and operating philosophies on many other technologies. Why not airliners?

I'd love to see all these airframers outsource cockpits to avionics shops who work to common design standards and layouts. The industry's goal should be a standard cockpit for everything from a 50-seater to a double decker jumbo. Similar control laws. Everything. Create an industry forum who will dictate best practices and work to that.

Won't ever happen because then the OEMs can't hold their large customers hostage. But I am a crazy dreamer like that.


That would limit innovation that has added to safety over the years. A new idea that allows closer flight paths could take twice as long as it already does as it goes through commity.


What innovation are we talk about? The MAX doesn't even have EICAS.
 
ual763
Posts: 997
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:01 am

TObound wrote:
ual763 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?

Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.


Apparently, you didn’t read my entire post. I said systems logic “in terms of flight control systems” shouldn’t change from what is on the 757/767 for example. Innovate all you want, make systems better and more reliable, But, in the end the pilot should absolutely have the ultimate authority to override said flight control system if he/she feels it is in the best interest to do so. The computer shouldn’t decide for you, rather it should advise you.

And shall I point you to the statistics that the fatality rate per one million departures is the exact same on the 767 as the A320 (.10) It may be old, but it is just as safe as anything out there today. I’m not advocating for getting rid of glass (although I really do like the 747 Classics). I’m advocating for not making the redundancy systems overly complex. Any pilot (no matter their background) should be able to turn off the automation and fly the aircraft just like the Cessna (or Texan II) they may have trained on without any confusion.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
DanniS
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:12 am

IADCA wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
IADCA wrote:
which is fine and laudable, but by the time you got it in the air, Airbus would be planning for the future, as well as having whatever incremental improvements already baked into the 320N series.


That's true every time you launch a product... you are almost suggesting Boeing can never build another narrow body because Airbus will follow with a better A360.... and then if they build a proper mom..... airbus will follow with a better A370... etc, etc...


No, I'm suggesting that aiming squarely at the center of the A320 size segment might be a problem because Airbus is so far ahead in that range at this point. Aiming for an aircraft optimized slightly differently would likely guarantee a floor level of sales. Either that, or you need to somehow blow the A320neo out of the water, which realistically isn't possible in the near term without a substantial powerplant innovation, and even going all-CFRP probably isn't going to get there, especially once you factor in whatever PIPs Airbus rolls out. Basically, the problem is that Boeing [i]has[i/] to do something, and Airbus has the luxury of reacting to that while also making a ton of money in the same segment that is giving Boeing huge problems.

Yes, it's possible Boeing overcomes this, but look at what happened with the 787: huge new program, carbon fiber body, still lost a decent chunk of orders to A330neo and then has A350 on the top end. However, the 787 sits in a nice size range where, for some applications, it's a fantastically efficient aircraft. That differentiation really saves it going forward.

All-composite construction, the Truss-Braced Wing (supposedly up to 60% more efficient than current designs), new engines, and filling out the full wingspan of the C-Class aircraft slot. Airbus would be in a lot of pain fighting it. Other than Project BLADE--which is only good for Mach 0.7 and below flight speeds vs. TBW's Mach 0.8--Airbus' only other interesting innovation with any public spotlight is their flapping wingtips, which are probably so heavy you couldn't realistically tack them onto anything smaller than a D-Class craft, just like Boeing's folding wingtips on the 777X.

But at that point you've officially got a long-haul narrowbody, not a regional + transcon flier, and I'm not sure that's a good thing.
 
DanniS
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:17 am

morrisond wrote:
TObound wrote:
morrisond wrote:

I think it will still look like an NMA - just be a lot more automated and more likely closer to the tight light 7W concept than anything that is Bigger or 8W, which can be reused for NSA as well down the road with Boeing Brazil doing something smaller up to 738 in size - probably 5W with the same control system, modelled off of the 777x/787 but with the above more automation, and much ore comprehensive linkage to the ground and remote diagnosis/help.


If folding wingtips have done well on the 777X then a 7ab 250-seater widebody that fits into Code C gates could well be possible. That would be huge.


Yes it would be - and with even more efficient engines available later this decade - that means less fuel to go the same distance which means less weight which means less wingspan making Code C gates entirely possible.

It's basically not possible. Boeing's own engineers have previously stated the mechanism is so necessarily heavy that it's not viable on smaller craft. Otherwise, I'm sure the 767 MAX would already have been announced by now. More improvements by CFM/PW and better aerodynamics from a new composite wing.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:21 am

Dieuwer wrote:
What Chinese competition? Link?

there isn't a Chinese built airplane coming in the near future that's going to compete with any Boeing nor Airbus product. The Chinese would have to procure system integration tech that the Russians aren't going to sell them. and then procure Engine Technology that nobody will sell them. They are at best 2035 before they are able to build a suitable and reliable airliner. More than likely with Indian help.
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:23 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
What Chinese competition? Link?

there isn't a Chinese built airplane coming in the near future that's going to compete with any Boeing nor Airbus product. The Chinese would have to procure system integration tech that the Russians aren't going to sell them. and then procure Engine Technology that nobody will sell them. They are at best 2035 before they are able to build a suitable and reliable airliner. More than likely with Indian help.


Bombardier nearly sold them the CSeries. The Canadian government intervened and pushed the sale to Airbus. There will be more opportunities for the Chinese to get IP and know-how in the future.

And because they have the state to help them sell, they don't even need the best airplanes. Getting aid from China? Well guess which airplanes your national airline has to buy. It's kinda like El Al only buying Boeing.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:28 am

TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
TObound wrote:

Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary.

People including myself think that because the ECAM saves time in an emergency because a checklist for a problem will show up immediately if there is a problem, and the ECAM has timers for the AGENTS and ENG MASTER switches.


People really, really should read the article I posted about A220 cockpit earlier:

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... next-level

ECAM is old news at this point. It's going to be older than some of the pilots flying A320s today. ECAM is not even the starting point for what a cockpit should look like. The starting point is what you read in the above article.

WayexTDI wrote:
TObound wrote:

Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....

One could poke the bear and say the 737 is NOT a modern airliner :duck:


It isn't. It's 60's vintage airplane with 90s avionics. And the only reason it's gotten away with not having features that modern airliners have, is grandfathering. I wish regulators would simply mandate fully redundant FBW, glass cockpits, electronic checklists, centralized crew alerting, etc. It sucks that airlines can get away with buying under-equipped airliners and then thundering them in with pax in the back.


Time for some dates:

ECAM: 1987 (A320)
EICAS: 1982 (757/767)

I'm sure there's at least one A320 captain under 33, and one 767 captain under 38.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
incitatus
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:31 am

Investing so much research into a widebody NMA made it seem like Boeing was out of touch. The market between 737/A321 and widebodies is asking for a longer haul narrow body, not for a mid-haul widebody. The A321XLR is right on. The only way for Boeing to participate is to create a new product that wins vs. the XLR in efficiency and range.

The shorter haul widebody market should be covered by a lighter version of the 787 - maybe even based on the 787-10 to bring the cost per seat to the lowest value possible. It would be an efficient way to cover trunk routes in Asia and the shorter trips for ME carriers.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:32 am

ual763 wrote:
TObound wrote:
ual763 wrote:

Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


And yet statistics absolutely prove you wrong. We've seen tremendous growth in air traffic, and watched as accident rates decline even as pilot experience levels drop. How would all that have happened without automation?

Aviation is no place for romanticism. Evidence matters. And there's no empirical evidence that increased automation has hurt safety.


Apparently, you didn’t read my entire post. I said systems logic “in terms of flight control systems” shouldn’t change from what is on the 757/767 for example. Innovate all you want, make systems better and more reliable, But, in the end the pilot should absolutely have the ultimate authority to override said flight control system if he/she feels it is in the best interest to do so. The computer shouldn’t decide for you, rather it should advise you.

And shall I point you to the statistics that the fatality rate per one million departures is the exact same on the 767 as the A320 (.10) It may be old, but it is just as safe as anything out there today. I’m not advocating for getting rid of glass (although I really do like the 747 Classics). I’m advocating for not making the redundancy systems overly complex. Any pilot (no matter their background) should be able to turn off the automation and fly the aircraft just like the Cessna (or Texan II) they may have trained on without any confusion.


Take a guess at what the 767 and A320 have in common, which is missing from the 737.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:33 am

When designing a house on a difficult site I often go through so many iterations that the original intent gets muddled, and starting with a fresh model is the only way to go. I still pull in many pieces that are already fleshed out.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
DanniS
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:42 am

incitatus wrote:
Investing so much research into a widebody NMA made it seem like Boeing was out of touch. The market between 737/A321 and widebodies is asking for a longer haul narrow body, not for a mid-haul widebody. The A321XLR is right on. The only way for Boeing to participate is to create a new product that wins vs. the XLR in efficiency and range.

The shorter haul widebody market should be covered by a lighter version of the 787 - maybe even based on the 787-10 to bring the cost per seat to the lowest value possible. It would be an efficient way to cover trunk routes in Asia and the shorter trips for ME carriers.

I know I'm turning into a broken record already, but I think that's a tad unfair. Widebodies have ostensibly been the favored plane for TATL and other long haul flight types. Widebodies have the cargo space both for cargo and for amenities and food. And, while it's obvious Boeing's putting a LOT of great work into their new wing design, I don't know if you could apply it to a widebody, and then mounting the engines on those "flimsy" things... Or would you prefer the big engines on-body as a passenger? :P

There's still a lot of work to do in aerospace engineering. Putting a lot of new tech together at once is very, very risky.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:56 am

TObound wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Does the A220 cockpit have its own equivalent to the ECAM?


Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....

EICAS /ECAM are there for troubleshooting the airplane as it tells you what's wrong with itself. the Indications are just replacing Analog Steam Gages which were on their way out anyway all they did was replicate the same data digitally However? the Big break thru was the ECAM and EICAS messages to aid in troubleshooting and repairs of systems Boeing has their messages and Airbus has theirs. I worked with the A320/A319 and I'm more attuned to ECAM messages which once you got into them were pretty easy to decipher. they were 3 levels of messages and it took just a minute to decipher each one. the trick was? To know which ones required Immediate attention and to keep a good track on which were Chronic performers. The first EiCAS messages I worked with were on the 747-400. Which were also straight forward BUT. you'd better break down each one because there were some messages you could actually defer/ ignore and there were some level 30 messages if paired with another Level 3 message that was NO GO.
I ponly got burned with this once and because 'the higher ups didn't know? I almost lost my job grounding an airplane for a late night international flight. I covered my tracks by printing the Troubleshooting guide, Ordering all the parts associated to the problem and Lucky for Me? Not all of them were at SFO didn't arrive until 0600 the following morning.
I also left the Eicas readout and the AMM on my boss's Desk and sure as shootin about 10pp he called me at home to fire me whereupon I told him to read the notes I left him because I also had a copy! Once he read them? I think he KNEW if he fired me? I'd take Him AND United to the cleaners and retire at 46 rather than 66. I came to work that afternoon on swing shift and worked another 21 years.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:19 am

ikramerica wrote:
When designing a house on a difficult site I often go through so many iterations that the original intent gets muddled, and starting with a fresh model is the only way to go. I still pull in many pieces that are already fleshed out.


And that fresh model has the gridlines and grades already thought out so pieces go together cleanly, not that previously stretched and shrunk a thousand times elements. All the nodes accurate and in order, all the angles true 90's (or 37 degrees) not 89.96 degrees.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:37 am

klkla wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Airbus hasn't been any less risk adverse during this time. They put new engines on the A320 and A330 and basically copied the 787 with some different tweaks in the A350.

Boeing was out performing Airbus in financial performance before the 737Max debacle.
What they achieved with the A320Neo, A330Neo and A350 is the fact that all those programs were delivered at a lower cost with little issue. Airbus accounting model in my opinion is also vastly better as costs are booked as they occur as opposed to being amortized over the life of the program. The biggest problem for Airbus was the A380, and they are closing down that line, something that will allow them to focus on planes that actually make a profit.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:01 am

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Charting orders between the MCD merger and MAX mania for the B737 and B787 it seems as if the business changed radically in 2005 where the primary profit was in mass producing the B737.The big dip in 2009 along with rumors that the NEO would be arriving the following year seems to have been frightening.

At least publicly as late as February 2011, Boeing's CEO Jim McNerney maintained "We're going to do a new airplane." Then the A320neo gathered 667 commitments at the June 2011, Paris Air Show which seems to have been the nail in the coffin.

Years - Orders
1999 737 234
2000 737 365
2001 737 174
2002 737 156
2003 737 195
2004 737 147
2005 737 528
2006 737 649
2007 737 695
2008 737 421
2009 737 172
2010 737 387
2011 737 529 (150 MAX)

2004 787 52
2005 787 179
2006 787 99
2007 787 236
2008 787 59
2009 787 24
2010 787 25
2011 787 45
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:09 am

DanniS wrote:
All-composite construction, the Truss-Braced Wing (supposedly up to 60% more efficient than current designs), new engines, and filling out the full wingspan of the C-Class aircraft slot.


Where does this "supposedly" 60% figure come from? I haven't seen Boeing or NASA claim that.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:52 am

So NMA was basically a billion-dollar* A.net thread. Hope they had fun in Seattle while it lasted.

*Will we get to see a write-down amount eventually? Boeing made it sound as if they were well into detailed design.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:03 am

Matt6461 wrote:
So NMA was basically a billion-dollar* A.net thread. Hope they had fun in Seattle while it lasted.

*Will we get to see a write-down amount eventually? Boeing made it sound as if they were well into detailed design.

So what is Boeing going to do then? Build the NSA? Does the NMA still exist? What about the NMA cockpit? Is the NMA cockpit the same as the usual Boeing cockpits? Or does it have an A220-like design?

Did Calhoun basically say they have dropped the NMA?

Was Calhoun talking about the NMA and NSA when he was talking about redesigning the flight control laws?
NL: Bij de landing is full reverse het leukst!

EN: Full reverse is the best at touchdown!
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:10 am

I wonder if RR will have a new engine offering in time for whatever Boeing decides to do. Their decision a year or so ago to pull out of the NMA competition looks good with hindsight.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:44 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
So NMA was basically a billion-dollar* A.net thread. Hope they had fun in Seattle while it lasted.

*Will we get to see a write-down amount eventually? Boeing made it sound as if they were well into detailed design.

So what is Boeing going to do then? Build the NSA? Does the NMA still exist? What about the NMA cockpit? Is the NMA cockpit the same as the usual Boeing cockpits? Or does it have an A220-like design?

Did Calhoun basically say they have dropped the NMA?

Was Calhoun talking about the NMA and NSA when he was talking about redesigning the flight control laws?


I've been on record doubting the NSA business case for years. IMO we may be at a point where the next short-hauler is as much a commodity as the family sedan. I.e. there's no long-term business case for a US/European company to sink billions into a product that China can match or nearly match on fuel efficiency. Even if you have a small fuel edge, China will probably beat you on acquisition cost. Even if you win after acquisition cost you probably don't pay down the development cost.

What next? I really don't know. There's a good argument that under corporate law what Boeing should do is just wring shareholder profits out of the existing product line before closing BCA in a couple decades or so, focusing on corporate welfare from the military state therafter.
 
max999
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:42 am

aumaverick wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
The one thing which is certain is:

during the last 12-13 years, Boeing has been very risk adverse when it comes to new airliner designs.

I am not sure if this lack of innovation was a result of of the McDonnell Douglas Merger, or something else externally in terms of America and Boeing’s struggles with rudderless leadership.


Neither. It was all about driving out cost and increasing revenue from the existing product lines as a result of the delays and expense incurred from the 787. Wall Street and the investors wanted to squeeze out maximum profitability which meant very little appetite to innovate and invest in something new, regardless of the impact from 1997 or a rudderless C-suite.


So basically, Boeing management read Jack Welch's books and then put 'shareholder value' as corporate priorities 1, 2, and 3 over everything else, including safety.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:29 pm

morrisond wrote:
It's just that in the past when Pilot's were more comfortable with Hand flying - they may have saved a bad situation due to automation failure 99 times out of a hundred with it happening on 1 of every 10,000 flights - so 1 in a million crash.


That assumed loss curve probably is more rooted in boasting ( plus associated super sizing of achievements over time )
and folk lore than anything else.
it is the argument to make for old geezers that hate any progress ( actually change ).
Note: There is a group around where
"no solution can be better or more intuitive than the one when they had first contact with the topic."

if crews hadn't gotten better the loss rates could only have halved.
( p(crew) + p(machine) = p(overall) )

Same with "Boeing is flown by pilots, Airbus flies the pilots".
Lots of putative examples but never a real hands on incident to showcase the argument.

Add in that Boeing seems to have a thing for stealthy, treacherous machine rollback on errors.
That is not really what I'd call "pilot has final say" beyond "we are dead", EOT
Murphy is an optimist
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:18 pm

TObound wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TObound wrote:

Yes. I don't get why people think EICAS/ECAM is so revolutionary. Every modern airliner has some version of this. The 737 is an exception....

One could poke the bear and say the 737 is NOT a modern airliner :duck:


It isn't. It's 60's vintage airplane with 90s avionics. And the only reason it's gotten away with not having features that modern airliners have, is grandfathering. I wish regulators would simply mandate fully redundant FBW, glass cockpits, electronic checklists, centralized crew alerting, etc. It sucks that airlines can get away with buying under-equipped airliners and then thundering them in with pax in the back.

Not sure such mandates are good for innovation; what if something much better and safer than FBW (for example) was invented? Regulation would halt its implementation and that'd be bad news for safety and innovation.

Innovation is usually driven by customer demands and competition; unfortunately, it would appear Boeing listened too much to a few customers for the 737 (apparently both NG and MAX) and just decided to slap another coat of make-up on that pig.

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