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musman9853
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:52 am

1989worstyear wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
IADCA wrote:

That plane exists. It's the A320 series. You're basically asking them to build a better A320 than the A320 - which is fine and laudable, but by the time you got it in the air, Airbus would be planning for the future, as well as having whatever incremental improvements already baked into the 320N series.



Exactly. A good A318 and 319 mean a bad A321, and vice versa.


So you're saying Boeing should just give up and cede the market to Airbus because they'll never be able to out-engineer them?


Either that or it's still 1987 and we don't realize it.

Does this mean innovation really DID peak at that time? :stirthepot:


I don't really recall smartphones in 1987.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:04 am

BoeingVista wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.

Thats BS really, not even Boeing was thinking of building NMA without a proper EICAS it would just not be certifiable as a clean sheet design. Boeing are just trying to find excuses that don't include "we're shelving NMA because the MAX is stinking so badly we don't have the resources to do both and our shareholders insist we fix the MAX first"

Probably better to leave the disrespect out of it, no?

Clearly NMA was not going to be a 737 clone.

What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. Presumably there will be more such outcomes. Both A and B have mentioned going to one pilot cockpits at some point. It's too soon now, but maybe they aim for a cockpit with so much automation they are within striking distance of such a goal. They may be heading for a goal like the early 767s with a flight engineer station but with next to nothing for the flight engineer to do, with easy modification to a one pilot cockpit.

Maybe their is some posturing going on, but there still are a lot of engineers at Boeing and not all of them have skills that are useful for MAX RTS and clearly Boeing isn't going to close shop on new development before the 777x flies or any time soon.

RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

The title is a copy/paste from the Seattle Times article.

If you have the audio from the presser, please do share a link.
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william
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:30 am

Revelation wrote:
Pcoder wrote:

In essence A321 has taken this round of the fight just like 777 pushed the A340 out of the market and A330 pushed 767 out of the market.

IMO something different from and better than A321 needs to be produced.

You don't aim for where the puck is, you aim for where it's going to be.



Thats how I see it, Boeing is going to let the A321NEO capture most of the market. Airbus has 10 years of production backlog on the A320 family, and is not going to throw 10-15 Billion at a sub optimum competitor. In the Aircurrent article-

https://theaircurrent.com/industry-stra ... s-to-wait/

It states Calhoun wants to simplify the work for Boeing's engineers right now and that is get Max return to flying, Space capsule test,777X and 767 tanker issues resolved.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:39 am

Revelation wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.

Thats BS really, not even Boeing was thinking of building NMA without a proper EICAS it would just not be certifiable as a clean sheet design. Boeing are just trying to find excuses that don't include "we're shelving NMA because the MAX is stinking so badly we don't have the resources to do both and our shareholders insist we fix the MAX first"

Probably better to leave the disrespect out of it, no?

Clearly NMA was not going to be a 737 clone.

What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. Presumably there will be more such outcomes. Both A and B have mentioned going to one pilot cockpits at some point. It's too soon now, but maybe they aim for a cockpit with so much automation they are within striking distance of such a goal. They may be heading for a goal like the early 767s with a flight engineer station but with next to nothing for the flight engineer to do, with easy modification to a one pilot cockpit.

Maybe their is some posturing going on, but there still are a lot of engineers at Boeing and not all of them have skills that are useful for MAX RTS and clearly Boeing isn't going to close shop on new development before the 777x flies or any time soon.

RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

The title is a copy/paste from the Seattle Times article.

If you have the audio from the presser, please do share a link.


I suspect what Calhoun meant is that they are going to systematically start the clean sheet incorporating the lessons learned from the MAX debacle. Evaluate the control scheme and scope with lots of risk analysis, basically an autonomous aircraft monitored by the pilots (sometime just one pilot). Possibly add a remote piloting capability. But starting with today's clean sheet, not the 5 year old plan that has been doodled on a lot. I would say that 3/4 of what they have already done engineering wise will make it into this new clean sheet.

I truly hope that Boeing designs this one in house (no reckless outsourcing as before) as a truly solid engineering project.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:45 am

Revelation wrote:
What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. .


Thats not really been Boeings 737 approach either, they hid things that the plane is doing from the pilots, hard to have final authority if you have no idea what the aircraft is doing, MCAS being the obvious example. There is also another thread running about the TK1951 crash where the 737 decided, in error, that it was close to the ground so shut the throttles without asking so yeah, no.. Its a great Boeing / Anet talking point but its simply not true.

Anyway lets put the NMA back on the shelf next to the box marked Sonic Cruiser and move on.
Last edited by BoeingVista on Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
BV
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:49 am

Single aisle or twin aisle?
CFRP wing, wingsize?
CFRP fuselage or Al?
Single axle main gear or double? (below or above 100t?)
Engine thrust requirement?
So basically, is he saying the aircraft is getting smaller than the NMA, or he's really not saying anything on size?
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:51 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
I suspect what Calhoun meant is that they are going to systematically start the clean sheet incorporating the lessons learned from the MAX debacle. Evaluate the control scheme and scope with lots of risk analysis, basically an autonomous aircraft monitored by the pilots (sometime just one pilot). Possibly add a remote piloting capability. But starting with today's clean sheet, not the 5 year old plan that has been doodled on a lot. I would say that 3/4 of what they have already done engineering wise will make it into this new clean sheet.

I truly hope that Boeing designs this one in house (no reckless outsourcing as before) as a truly solid engineering project.


Yeah, they are going to Windows 10 it, design a whole bunch of future and control that doesn't really address what the users want which is a stable currently usable and reliable system (with enough room to put a 21st century sized bum in), Ok, that last bit is more Boeing than Microsoft specific..
BV
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:09 am

BoeingVista wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
I suspect what Calhoun meant is that they are going to systematically start the clean sheet incorporating the lessons learned from the MAX debacle. Evaluate the control scheme and scope with lots of risk analysis, basically an autonomous aircraft monitored by the pilots (sometime just one pilot). Possibly add a remote piloting capability. But starting with today's clean sheet, not the 5 year old plan that has been doodled on a lot. I would say that 3/4 of what they have already done engineering wise will make it into this new clean sheet.

I truly hope that Boeing designs this one in house (no reckless outsourcing as before) as a truly solid engineering project.


Yeah, they are going to Windows 10 it, design a whole bunch of future and control that doesn't really address what the users want which is a stable currently usable and reliable system (with enough room to put a 21st century sized bum in), Ok, that last bit is more Boeing than Microsoft specific..


Like Windows XP and 7 Professional? Those worked so well for me but are no longer supported. I just hope Boeing goes for the stable and reliable.
 
ual763
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:18 am

Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.
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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:36 am

The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market.

787-8
Seating, exit limit 381
Length :56.72 m
Height (16.92 m)
Fuselage Cabin width: (5.49 m) External width: (5.77 m), height: (5.94 m)
Cargo capacity 136.7 m³
MTOW 227,930 kg
OEW 119,950 kg
Fuel capacity 126,206 L
Range 7,355 nmi
Takeoff (2,600 m)
Engines (×2) General Electric GEnx-1B or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000
Thrust (×2) (280 kN)

Airbus A330-800
Maximum seating 406
Cabin width 5.26m
Hold 136.0 m3
Length 58.82 m
Height 17.39 m
MTOW 251,000 kg
Max. payload 44,000 kg
OEW 132,000 kg
Fuel capacity 139,090 l
Range 8,150nmi
Engine (×2) Rolls-Royce Trent 7000-72
Thrust (×2) 324.0 kN
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:42 am

Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... estore-it/ ) reports:

Calhoun announced that the development work Boeing has been doing for several years on the NMA is starting over.

Boeing had hoped to have that jet in service by 2025 but the concept—an aircraft intermediate in size and range between the narrowbody and widebody jet segments—has been overtaken by Airbus’s huge sales success in selling its contender in that jet category, the A321neo.

The delay in launching the NMA means Boeing must now think even further ahead, taking account of developing Chinese competition.

“Things have changed a bit. The competitive playing field is a bit different. We have to plan for China,” Calhoun said. “We’re going to start with a clean sheet of paper again.”

So NMA is facing a reboot at best: the foot dragging went on too long, and now the Chinese competition is viewed as a concern.

And he indicated that the lessons learned from the MAX accidents, especially the change in thinking about how flight crews handle emergencies, could have a profound impact on that next new airplane design.

We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


That doesn't make sense. The NMA would have had modern flight control systems, like the 777 and 787 already have.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:55 am

BaconButty wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
What Chinese competition? Link?

AFAIK There's only the Comac C919 - a narrowbody competitor to the 737 and A320, currently in development hell, and the CR929, a JV with the Russians aimed at the 787/A350 by the look of it.

Hard to know which one he means.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929

I heard too many top management speeches or read to many statements from top management to believe them. Often it’s just some bla-bla-bla to cover something else. I therefore don’t believe that this China-threat is a true driver in the decision on how to proceed with NMA. As someone posted on page one (difficult to make multiple quotes with my iPhone), this statement was rather for some politicians.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:18 am

PacoMartin wrote:
The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market.



Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed)

Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to follow to replace 737 with 787-3 to replace 757 / 767-200
787 project badly mishandled
Boeing kills 787-3
Mishandled 787 project kills 737 replacement, so Boeing builds MAX
MAX doesn't cut it at upper capacity end, Boeing gets caned by A321 / A321NEO
Airbus builds 757 replacement in A321LR / XLR
Boeing then decides to build NMA to compete in market segment it declared dead but can't close business case partly because of A321 / A321NEO / A321LR / A321 XLR
MAX gets grounded
MAX grounding turns into money munching nightmare
Boeing kills NMA ceding 757 / large NB market to Airbus
MAX is on deathwatch, whole project is at risk

So 15 years of Boeing strategy have gotten them... well, not very far actually, 787 sure, but MAX is EOL, NMA pushed out to end of 2020's until which time Boeing will not have a competitive offering in the large NB / small WB sector.

RickNRoll wrote:

That doesn't make sense. The NMA would have had modern flight control systems, like the 777 and 787 already have.


Seems obvious, though not to all.
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889091
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:43 am

Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... estore-it/ ) reports:

Calhoun announced that the development work Boeing has been doing for several years on the NMA is starting over.

“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.



...is he saying that it will be full FBW?
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:55 am

889091 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... estore-it/ ) reports:

Calhoun announced that the development work Boeing has been doing for several years on the NMA is starting over.

“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.



...is he saying that it will be full FBW?


I would say the full spectrum: Auto-start, auto-land, full envelope protection, etc. Bringing automation to the maximum possible and allowed at the end of the decade.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:38 am

Revelation wrote:
“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

It sounds like Calhoun is trying to say that they possibly will use a side stick with at least the same depth of fly by wire in in Airbus, and that they will possibly even build their own version of the ECAM.

The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:53 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Revelation wrote:
“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

It sounds like Calhoun is trying to say that they possibly will use a side stick with at least the same depth of fly by wire in in Airbus, and that they will possibly even build their own version of the ECAM.


No, he seems to be saying that it will be more like 777's and 787's reliability


FlyingBlueKLM wrote:



The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


No, Calhoun said that the 737 Max would fly another generation. It is not doing the market a favor not to develop anything other than a 737MAX replacement ...
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:59 am

planecane wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Yes you aim for where the puck is going to be. I've been saying for a while that by 2030 should have the C919 figured out and being produced in great numbers. A me to 6W single aisle just won't cut it - it may have to be something with a lot more advanced aero - quasi blended wing 7W or that Bi-wing concept they were showing.

I doubt it will be a classic tube and wing.

Yay - finally we may see something more advanced and interesting.


Absolutely agree.

Boeing has a HUGE technological reservoir!

Despite what is happening, the design offices remain very active. NMA, FSA, NSA, 767-X were presented.

I've always said, the 737MAX will still fly for a very long time.

I see the future with a new aircraft above the 737MAX and an electric aircraft of 100 to 150 passengers by 2035 ..

"Honeydew" , was the concept for what I trust in an "ovoid" 7-abreast fuselage NMA-MK1

https://archive.seattletimes.com/archiv ... concepts05

Middle Of Market (MOM) is a very old name at Boeing (since the 60s and 70s). They have thousands of concepts until now. The 757/767 were the fruit of these studies while the 707 and 727 were MoM's already...


There is zero chance of an electric aircraft over 100 seats and usable payload range will be technologically and financially feasible in less than 15 years. Maybe some kind of fuel cell electric but not battery powered.


In principle, where is the difference?
 
Nicoeddf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:02 am

BoeingVista wrote:
Revelation wrote:
What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. .


Thats not really been Boeings 737 approach either, they hid things that the plane is doing from the pilots, hard to have final authority if you have no idea what the aircraft is doing, MCAS being the obvious example. There is also another thread running about the TK1951 crash where the 737 decided, in error, that it was close to the ground so shut the throttles without asking so yeah, no.. Its a great Boeing / Anet talking point but its simply not true.

Anyway lets put the NMA back on the shelf next to the box marked Sonic Cruiser and move on.


But what happened to "moving throttles are giving all the clues needed to a crew"? How did the plane hide anything in that concept? And did the plane blank out the engine instruments showing what, like 30% N1?
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Nicoeddf
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:04 am

ual763 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.


Increased automation is one of the reasons why they crashed. If anything, aircraft have become too automated. If I had it my way, the 757/767 (in terms of flight control systems) would be as advanced as they come. When you start adding all of these fancy functions and “flight control laws”, that is is where things get confusing and unnecessary (even for iPhone kids). The industry as a whole needs to go back to basics when it comes to automated flight control systems. Add FLIR, HUDs, new engines, wings, avionics, etc., but leave the flight controls and system logic alone.


Excellent then, that you don't have it your way.

1. It never worked out advantageously to simply stop developing. Older generations always tend to believe nothing should change from the point on, they felt comfortable with a design.

2. Accident statistics don't support your argument either.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:30 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Revelation wrote:
“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

It sounds like Calhoun is trying to say that they possibly will use a side stick with at least the same depth of fly by wire in in Airbus, and that they will possibly even build their own version of the ECAM.

The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


If they were to use sidesticks it would be of the active type that Gulfstream uses. Boeing isn't going to take away any feedback.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:32 am

Sidesticks would be a lot cheaper.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:33 am

Will Embraer design it?
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:39 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Revelation wrote:
“We might have to start with the flight control philosophy before we actually get to the airplane,” he said. “We’ve always favored airplanes that required more pilot flying than maybe our competitor did. We are all going to have to get our heads around exactly what we want” in future.

It sounds like Calhoun is trying to say that they possibly will use a side stick with at least the same depth of fly by wire in in Airbus, and that they will possibly even build their own version of the ECAM.

The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


If they were to use sidesticks it would be of the active type that Gulfstream uses. Boeing isn't going to take away any feedback.


Yes, I do think they will do that, but they will hopefully have at least the same FBW depth as Airbus has. Active side sticks are really cool in my opinion.

And will Boeing add a cockpit table? For controlling the seating position it would be a good move to make it electronically driven, and having seating position values on a display that you can write down in your notebook to always have the exact same seating position, and also having the option to enter these values on the display and that the seat will move automatically to the values you entered.

Can you do a priority takeover with active side sticks?
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:42 am

Noshow wrote:
Will Embraer design it?


I do think so. If Boeing says we want this and this, Embraer can design it, with Boeing supervision of course.
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:43 am

I think they will keep as much commonality as possible with the 787/777X flight deck to reduce training costs. There's really no reason to change it.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:47 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

He pretty much just said "Our NMA cleansheet design is coming"

Not once did he say that they are restarting the design with a second cleansheet. Not a single word can cause anyone to think they are changing it to a 737 replacement.

This forum is ridiculous with the whole "Boeing can't close the business case" thing.

A positive business case was made a couple years ago, the design is now nearly complete, engines have already gone out for tender. It is so obvious that the reason for the slight delay of the launch is because the 737 is grounded. That would be a PR disaster.

Boeing has nearly always launched a new aircraft 5 years before the PLANNED service date. With the proposed 2025 service date that has been mentioned that means the 797 should launch in 2019 or 2020. 2019 was ruled out due to the 737 grounding so expect a launch shortly after the 737 is back on. The air.


What part of…

“Things have changed a bit. The competitive playing field is a bit different. We have to plan for China,” Calhoun said. “We’re going to start with a clean sheet of paper again.”

…are you having trouble with?
come visit the south pacific
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:48 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
There's really no reason to change it.

In my opinion there is a need to change it. Boeing has to move with the times.
NL: Bij de landing is full reverse het leukst!

EN: Full reverse is the best at touchdown!
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:52 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
There's really no reason to change it.

In my opinion there is a need to change it. Boeing has to move with the times.


The 777 and 787 are full FBW aircraft. Having a control column doesn't prohibit FBW. Boeing asked quite a few pilots if they wanted a sidestick when they were developing the 777. It's simply a preference and either works just fine. I can fly an SR22 just as well as I can fly a C172. But adding a sidestick to this new aircraft would add considerable cost as far as parts inventory and maintenance go. The 787 and 777 will still be in service for many years. You may as well keep as much similarity as possible.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:54 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
global1 wrote:
If they're starting with a clean sheet of paper, it seems doubtful that they'll have a timely offering to replace the Delta 767-300 fleet

What's most likely to fill that role now?


A330s


Good luck to them filling an additional ~100 extra seats. The A330 was a DC-10 replacement, not a 767 replacement.


If an airline needs to replace 767-300ERs in the next few years and the A321neo can't do what they need, then their only choice today is A338 or 788 both of which are significantly larger. Given DL's fleet, I imagine the A338 would be favoured over other choices, IMHO.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:16 am

Checklist787 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:



The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


No, Calhoun said that the 737 Max would fly another generation. It is not doing the market a favor not to develop anything other than a 737MAX replacement ...


What I wanted to say is that Boeing is maybe considering dropping the NMA to make room for the NSA.

It really looks like the market wants a 737 MAX replacement. And hopefully, Boeing is listening. In my opinion, Boeing should make the FSA a priority. First priority: solve the 737 MAX problems. Second priority: design and build the NSA. That how it should be in my opinion.

When the 737 MAX issues are solved, it should be like this in my opinion: First priority: design and build the NSA. Second priority: design and build the NMA.

I’m no expert, but it looks like this is what the market wants in my opinion.
NL: Bij de landing is full reverse het leukst!

EN: Full reverse is the best at touchdown!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:31 am

Motorhussy wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

He pretty much just said "Our NMA cleansheet design is coming"

Not once did he say that they are restarting the design with a second cleansheet. Not a single word can cause anyone to think they are changing it to a 737 replacement.

This forum is ridiculous with the whole "Boeing can't close the business case" thing.

A positive business case was made a couple years ago, the design is now nearly complete, engines have already gone out for tender. It is so obvious that the reason for the slight delay of the launch is because the 737 is grounded. That would be a PR disaster.

Boeing has nearly always launched a new aircraft 5 years before the PLANNED service date. With the proposed 2025 service date that has been mentioned that means the 797 should launch in 2019 or 2020. 2019 was ruled out due to the 737 grounding so expect a launch shortly after the 737 is back on. The air.


What part of…

“Things have changed a bit. The competitive playing field is a bit different. We have to plan for China,” Calhoun said. “We’re going to start with a clean sheet of paper again.”

…are you having trouble with?


Apparently also having trouble accepting that senior Boeing execs repeatedly said they hadn't closed the business case. ;)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:48 am

So what sort of NMA did they design first that they now cannot use? It was a clean sheet as well. What went wrong? Production infrastructure? Sizing? Sizing NMA 2 will not become easier.
One could even say the first NMA was the 787-3 back then. If this is such a tricky part of the market why try for the third time now?
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:54 am

BaconButty wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
What Chinese competition? Link?

AFAIK There's only the Comac C919 - a narrowbody competitor to the 737 and A320, currently in development hell, and the CR929, a JV with the Russians aimed at the 787/A350 by the look of it.

Hard to know which one he means.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRAIC_CR929


What about China as "customer" and not as competitor?
Trumps drive is to sell more stuff to China. Preferably expensive stuff.
( Does Airbus at the moment have the better "product portfolio" cards? )
Murphy is an optimist
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:59 am

Checklist787 wrote:
planecane wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:

Absolutely agree.

Boeing has a HUGE technological reservoir!

Despite what is happening, the design offices remain very active. NMA, FSA, NSA, 767-X were presented.

I've always said, the 737MAX will still fly for a very long time.

I see the future with a new aircraft above the 737MAX and an electric aircraft of 100 to 150 passengers by 2035 ..

"Honeydew" , was the concept for what I trust in an "ovoid" 7-abreast fuselage NMA-MK1

https://archive.seattletimes.com/archiv ... concepts05

Middle Of Market (MOM) is a very old name at Boeing (since the 60s and 70s). They have thousands of concepts until now. The 757/767 were the fruit of these studies while the 707 and 727 were MoM's already...


There is zero chance of an electric aircraft over 100 seats and usable payload range will be technologically and financially feasible in less than 15 years. Maybe some kind of fuel cell electric but not battery powered.


In principle, where is the difference?


When you say "electric aircraft" to most people they assume you are talking about an airborne Tesla that is charged by wind and solar power. I don't know if there is much, if any benefit of using liquid fuel with onboard fuel cells and electric propulsion vs. just burning the fuel in a state of the art jet engine.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:07 am

If its not merely window dressing to cover up killing of the NMA/MoM program, then it could be a really strong decision and best for Boeing in the long term.

Back to square one - define a modern interface between users and platform (that interface applies to more than just the skygods).
That interface can then become a common Boeing standard (similar to Airbus' cockpit has a strong commonality thread through it), and can be the backbone of all future designs.
There are loads of top level requirements that could be introduced that simply wouldn't have been viable 10 years ago
- wireless/cloud connectivity to ground ops (for maintenance, flight planning, diagnostics etc)
- augmented reality headsets for improved HUD functionality [note, not virtual reality headsets]
- ground-up protection from hostile actors on the aircraft wireless network
- improved autopilot functionality and integration with ATC systems (which would require action outside of Boeing)

If the board manage to sort their crap out and make some hard decisions - a lot of good could emerge from the ashes of the MAX debacle.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:19 am

Revelation wrote:
BoeingVista wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the lessons learned from MAX and project what you can expect new entrants to be able to do by the time NMA is ready for market.

Thats BS really, not even Boeing was thinking of building NMA without a proper EICAS it would just not be certifiable as a clean sheet design. Boeing are just trying to find excuses that don't include "we're shelving NMA because the MAX is stinking so badly we don't have the resources to do both and our shareholders insist we fix the MAX first"

Probably better to leave the disrespect out of it, no?

Clearly NMA was not going to be a 737 clone.

What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. Presumably there will be more such outcomes. Both A and B have mentioned going to one pilot cockpits at some point. It's too soon now, but maybe they aim for a cockpit with so much automation they are within striking distance of such a goal. They may be heading for a goal like the early 767s with a flight engineer station but with next to nothing for the flight engineer to do, with easy modification to a one pilot cockpit.

Maybe their is some posturing going on, but there still are a lot of engineers at Boeing and not all of them have skills that are useful for MAX RTS and clearly Boeing isn't going to close shop on new development before the 777x flies or any time soon.

RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

The title is a copy/paste from the Seattle Times article.

If you have the audio from the presser, please do share a link.


I think this focus on flight control is PR spin that there was no business case for the NMA as currently envisioned. They were already working on making it single pilot future proof. Also, the 777/787 flight control philosophy seems to be fine even if it isn't quite as idiot proof as the Airbus philosophy.

I think there simply isn't a big enough market for what they were designing and the NMA really needs to be like a 737-800 through 757-300 replacement with the performance capability of the A321XLR but 15-20% less fuel burn. The engine technology necessary to achieve that isn't available yet so they are putting out PR spin and planning a launch in a few years.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:38 am

So what is wrong with the 787 FBW system since that is the last clean sheet control system put out by Boeing?
Unlike the 777X which is from the 777W.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:41 am

par13del wrote:
So what is wrong with the 787 FBW system since that is the last clean sheet control system put out by Boeing?


Possibly based off the same erroneous assumptions that when something goes wrong, the pilots can redesign the aircraft, cure cancer and fill the fuselage with enough hot air to keep the aircraft flying - all within 2 seconds.

Even two captains on the same flight deck will struggle to talk themselves up enough to fill a fuselage in 2 seconds.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:03 pm

planecane wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Leave short-haul NB to EMB-JV. 737 legacy and MAX jinx will end, Fresh E2, different CAA, low cost to compete with China
Build a 150(2 Class) 10 hr endurance Small Capacity Long Range. Don't make it too big to cook CASM numbers.
Tweak 788
Cancel 777X

Cancel 77X when it's about to make first flight and a huge percentage of the investment in it is already spent?


Have a successful first flight and park it at a museum, just like Howard Hughes did with Spruce Goose.
What even Boeing spent on 777X is not going to be recovered thru 777X sales, technology someday bring some revenue thru future programs.
Total 300 copies at best, not confident.
Each copy selling at $150Mil only going to increase loses.
At such low production rate, Washington state is not going to give incentives.
If management is smart cut losses sooner than later.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:10 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Did anyone actually listen to what he said?

He pretty much just said "Our NMA cleansheet design is coming"

Not once did he say that they are restarting the design with a second cleansheet. Not a single word can cause anyone to think they are changing it to a 737 replacement.

This forum is ridiculous with the whole "Boeing can't close the business case" thing.

A positive business case was made a couple years ago, the design is now nearly complete, engines have already gone out for tender. It is so obvious that the reason for the slight delay of the launch is because the 737 is grounded. That would be a PR disaster.

Boeing has nearly always launched a new aircraft 5 years before the PLANNED service date. With the proposed 2025 service date that has been mentioned that means the 797 should launch in 2019 or 2020. 2019 was ruled out due to the 737 grounding so expect a launch shortly after the 737 is back on. The air.


Hi RJMAZ - Do you have a link to the interview audio or Video?
 
art
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:07 pm

jwjsamster wrote:
KrustyTheKlown wrote:
If by Chinese competition they mean the A320-sized C919 and the 787-sized CR929 I don't think the definition of Middle Of the Market changes at all.



Them starting again seems to imply that this may be a 737 and nma (the smaller end of it) sort of airplane. That's why they are concerned about the C919.

Also, if the C919 gets to a decent production rate, you can imagine that the Chinese will have a preference for it over the 737.


I think ARJ21 production rate is minimal. Entered service 2016. Number delivered <30. Unless C919 production is spectacularly better, it cannot pose much of a threat, can it?
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:20 pm

Broken Record time

3 to 4 years ago, instead of plotting to destroy Bombardier's C Series, they could have bought it for next to nothing. 2 to 3 billion would have been highway robbery, the 100, 300 and the addition of a 500 would have covered the MAX 8 and down. Boeing could have then used this tune and that insight to clean sheet at new single aisle including a proper 757 and 767 replacement with 5k nm rangem.

They got cheap and continued to Frankenstein a 50 year old platform, got caught flatfooted with AB's snatching of the C Series and subsequent proper marketing and promise of longevity needed for it to sell. They go off and spend billions on Embraer for a plane that is truely niche considering that it will most likely never meet scope causes in the US and outdone by the former C-series for the 100 plus seat market. True the got tech indo but could have had the C Series tech instead. And...for the icing on the crap cake, their latest Lego version of the 737 was a death trap.

And let's not get into the new fueling tanker 767 issues for the military issues

The entire board needs swept clean.
Last edited by WaywardMemphian on Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:22 pm

F-35 isn't Boeing's problem...?

[unless the bits they supply are defective?!?]
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:23 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
F-35 isn't Boeing's problem...?

[unless the bits they supply are defective?!?]


I fixed it, that was Lockhead's problem child.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:35 pm

Thinking more about this I think what Calhoun is referring too is that he will be pushing for a design that is more automated than we have ever seen before. Or will have the ability to be upgraded down the road when the Appropriate Software and or Hardware is available.

Let me explain.

We have to remember that whatever the new frame is it will most likely be in production for at least a minimum of 20 years (taking it close to 2050 with a realistic entry into service of the late 2020's), and be in service for at about 20 years past that. Basically taking us to 2070. However the basic frame could be produced for much longer and in service for a lot longer with the longevity of carbon frames. The "Pilot" even if there is one by then who will "fly" the last one from the factory probably hasn't been born yet.

You would want to build into the frame the ability to use systems that will become available in the next 20 years and longer.

Specifically, Real AI (not the Quasi AI we have now - but real Self Aware AI that can past the Turing Test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test) could happen by the end of this decade and we could see it's use in Aviation before the end of the 2030's, as it should be a quantum leap in safety once proven.

Will complete Automated Flight happen with no pilots by 2030? Of course not - but the level of Automation could increase significantly by 2030 with the full flight controlled essentially by Computer basically 100% of time with the pilot just there to take over if something goes wrong (with a Big red button to push to cut off all automated control).

Now would you want this Minimally trained pilot on board to have manual control and complete the flight without computer assistance if something goes wrong? Of course not - but all you would have to do is essentially train them to fly straight and level while the problem is diagnosed. Or have a completely redundant Simple AP system that could take over (by hitting the big red button) that relied on completely different sensors and control paths. A simple AP like you would find in an Cessna to maintain straight and level.

With so many sensors and computers the plane would become incredibly complex - meaning that no Pilot would have the knowledge to diagnose it properly.

This is where Boeing services comes in (and more revenue for Boeing) - you build in redundant Satellite links (that can't be controlled by HAL) so if an issue arises the pilot cuts over to the back up systems and contacts the Boeing services center where Experts on the aircraft can remote diagnose and help get the aircraft back to a safe state or possibly take remote control and fly the aircraft to a suitable Airport if the Pilot is unable to.

This is basically what happened with Lufthansa 1829 (remote diagnosis) and allowed them to continue on safely.

All this means is that if you are designing a new frame now - you have to build in the capacity for a lot more sensors into the control systems/wiring (much like Tesla is doing now with future upgrades to full autonomous driving) and space for more Computing capacity (more future revenue for Boeing Services).

Of course whenever you make things more complex you exponentially increase the points of failure - so initially you still need pilots that can fly.

In the immortal words of Montgomery Scott "The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain."
Last edited by morrisond on Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:42 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Checklist787 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:



The NMA is becoming the NSA in my opinion.

:smile:

Good luck with the NSA Boeing!


No, Calhoun said that the 737 Max would fly another generation. It is not doing the market a favor not to develop anything other than a 737MAX replacement ...


What I wanted to say is that Boeing is maybe considering dropping the NMA to make room for the NSA.

It really looks like the market wants a 737 MAX replacement. And hopefully, Boeing is listening. In my opinion, Boeing should make the FSA a priority. First priority: solve the 737 MAX problems. Second priority: design and build the NSA. That how it should be in my opinion.

When the 737 MAX issues are solved, it should be like this in my opinion: First priority: design and build the NSA. Second priority: design and build the NMA.

I’m no expert, but it looks like this is what the market wants in my opinion.


1. The 737MAX is one of the market answer already. The customers airlines wait for the re-certification of this one

2. D. Calhoun said that the 737MAX will fly for another generation, it's official

3. The 737 MAX crisis will cost +20 billion USD.

4. The NMA, and the lighter" new" FSA are a "757 proxy" with another shape.
Remember the NMA was already 25% bigger than the 757-200 announced by J. Mc Nerney and R. Tinseth in 2015...

5. I bet than the "new" NMA is something as between the FSA and the NMA-MK1...
It's logically a lighter NMA (2-2-2 /6 - abreast?)
Last edited by Checklist787 on Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 219
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Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:44 pm

The point is that building aircraft and other scientific or engineering endeavors is about exploiting a set of physical laws. They are not exclusively owned, given time, effort and resources it will be possible for the Chinese to also be able to manufacture planes. That comment to me sounds like aimed at an audience of one so they can get additional, completely rule breaking state assistance.

One of the things that always makes me chuckle is when there is the story that without person X we would not have discovered Y. No matter how brilliant X is, Y still existed and would have been discovered by someone else. For example currently there must be tens of thousands of people working with DNA in some capacity, without a Watson or a Crick none of those other people would have figured it out?
 
Elementalism
Posts: 571
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:34 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds like NSA instead of NMA


Feel the same. And it makes sense given MAX issues and delays in 777x. Build a model range that will cover the -7 through 757 and provide options at the high end for range. They have essentially ceeded the 2020s to the A321NEO for MoM.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 571
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:48 pm

Delta 767 replacements will probably be the A330-800. Other airlines will evaluate 787 vs A330.
Neither are imo ideal for this market. Too big.
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