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TObound
Posts: 793
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:29 am

SWADawg wrote:
Not going to sugarcoat these earnings. The longer the MAX remains grounded, the worse it’s going to be going forward for WN.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south ... iteid=nbsh


Well deserved. Boeing wouldn't be in this mess if WN didnt push for an airplane where only iPad training is needed to convert.
 
airplaneboy
Posts: 721
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:42 am

TObound wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
Not going to sugarcoat these earnings. The longer the MAX remains grounded, the worse it’s going to be going forward for WN.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south ... iteid=nbsh


Well deserved. Boeing wouldn't be in this mess if WN didnt push for an airplane where only iPad training is needed to convert.


Boeing is the manufacturer, and the FAA is the regulatory authority. Southwest is a customer- the customer can ask for whatever they want. It’s up to Boeing and the FAA to do their jobs properly. The launch airlines have no fault in the MAX issues.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3808
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:16 pm

WN had said in yesterday's earnings call that it is planning on adjusting its Summer 2020 schedule before this summer due to delays in getting the 737 MAX back in service.
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2872
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:16 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Is it the business model or their unwillingness to deviate from the all 737 fleet? Getting a smaller plane like the A223 would open up a fair amount of expansion opportunities into smaller markets


A new fleet type would do more harm than good. Their entire business model is based around a single fleet type and the synergies/efficiency that creates with training, parts, network planning, etc. If they started to introduce complexity their costs would go up and I’m not so sure flying to smaller markets with said plane would offset those headwinds.


At some point on the timeline the 737 MAX will be no more and the 737 will be no more as well. Adding an additional aircraft like the suggested A223 might therefore have merit looking long term. This is something that a competent CEO would be looking at as an insurance policy instead of remaining stuck as time and the industry changes.
 
737max8
Posts: 653
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:51 pm

durangomac wrote:
737max8 wrote:
kabq737 wrote:

That definitely makes some sense I just don’t know if they run enough flights to Hawaii for that to have a huge effect on the numbers for the whole system.


I don't think weight has often been a problem westbound to Hawaii. And I thought WN just shared 90%+ load factors on west coast to Hawaii in 2019?



During the summer months that is true, headwinds during the summer aren't that big of an issue. My info comes from an FA that fly Hawaii flights often and she says most of her flights westbound have had weight restrictions. Apparently WN revenue management is having to hold back 30-40 seats on every westbound flight during the winter until they get closer in when more accurate wind prediction is available a few days out from the flight, at that point they can release seats for sales. She says that some of her flights have had upwards of 30 seats empty because of weight restrictions. Yes I know, I'm listening to an FA but they are usually aware of weight restrictions day of the flight.


I look at those flights all the time and don't think I ever seen 30-40 seats held. I think the most I've seen is like 8.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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SXDFC
Posts: 2052
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:07 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:12 pm

I've heard a rumor that WN was looking at some -800s from Norwegian, perhaps someone else might be able to confirm/deny it.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3808
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:11 am

SXDFC wrote:
I've heard a rumor that WN was looking at some -800s from Norwegian, perhaps someone else might be able to confirm/deny it.


Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is replacing its 737-700's and 737-800's with A320neo's, and SAS's plans to replace 737NG planes with A320neo's isn't affected by the 737 MAX grounding as SAS doesn't currently have any orders for 737 MAX planes.

I had previously mentioned WN acquiring used 737-700 and 737-800 aircraft from SAS as a possibility as WN is not likely to be back to normal anytime soon, even if the 737 MAX is back in service later this year.

In addition, KLM has plans to retire its 737-700's by 2022, and WN could acquire some used 737-700's from KLM in order to address the fleet shortage that WN is facing as a result of the current 737 MAX grounding.

I am unsure if Norwegian has plans to get rid of any 737-800 planes as the Boeing 737-800 and 737 MAX 8 are the only narrowbody aircraft models that are currently in Norwegian's fleet.
 
SXDFC
Posts: 2052
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:07 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:02 am

There are quite a few newer Norwegian -800s that have been hitting the second hand market. Those models are highly compatible with the WN -800s in age, interior (BSI) and from what I've heard WiFi. Fly Dubai also has been disposing some of their -800s, I believe SY picked up a few.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13350
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:30 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
WN's corporate culture used to be risk taking and aggressive. Now it is stodgy and ultra conservative imho.

Except that in reality, the exact opposite is the case.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3350
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:21 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Polot wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

That was a different time. Plus, those plans IIRC were configured smaller than what a A223 would be.

A A223 wouldn’t be much smaller than the 73Gs WN currently operate. Better operating economics though.


Which might make some smaller markets more feasible. Plus, not only would they have better operating economics, but it could be a bulwark against a future MAX-style fiasco.


Curious if you feel the same about Easyjet diversifying its all Airbus A320 series fleet.

SWA is looking, has looked at the A220, kicked the tires and ran the numbers and have a couple of A220 models left behind by the Airbus sales team. If SWA has not ordered it yet, its because it does not make sense for them now.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 948
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:21 pm

SXDFC wrote:
I've heard a rumor that WN was looking at some -800s from Norwegian, perhaps someone else might be able to confirm/deny it.


I hope so. WN badly needs more planes.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 948
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:25 pm

william wrote:
Curious if you feel the same about Easyjet diversifying its all Airbus A320 series fleet.


Yep. If this MAX grounding teaches us anything, it’s risky to put all your eggs in one basket. Southwest, Easyjet, Ryanair, etc, should have one of each type IMHO.
 
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PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:42 am

BNAMealer wrote:
SXDFC wrote:
I've heard a rumor that WN was looking at some -800s from Norwegian, perhaps someone else might be able to confirm/deny it.


I hope so. WN badly needs more planes.


New deliveries from Boeing of the B737-700 by Southwest Airlines from 17. Dec. 1997 to 21. Dec. 2011 were 362 jets.
Planespotters lists the Southwest fleet of Boeing 737-700 as 504 current and 10 historic.

Southwest has a long history of purchasing used jets, as they don't lease many.

The empty and maximum takeoff weight of the A220-330 and the B737-700 are almost identical, but it has slightly longer range at greater fuel efficiency.

B737-700
OEW 37.65 t
MTOW:70.08 t
Fuel capacity:26,022 L
Range: 3,010 nmi

A220-300
OEW:37.08 t
MTOW:69.90 t
Fuel capacity:21,508 L
Range: 3,350 nmi
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3633
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:35 am

durangomac wrote:
737max8 wrote:
kabq737 wrote:

That definitely makes some sense I just don’t know if they run enough flights to Hawaii for that to have a huge effect on the numbers for the whole system.


I don't think weight has often been a problem westbound to Hawaii. And I thought WN just shared 90%+ load factors on west coast to Hawaii in 2019?



During the summer months that is true, headwinds during the summer aren't that big of an issue. My info comes from an FA that fly Hawaii flights often and she says most of her flights westbound have had weight restrictions. Apparently WN revenue management is having to hold back 30-40 seats on every westbound flight during the winter until they get closer in when more accurate wind prediction is available a few days out from the flight, at that point they can release seats for sales. She says that some of her flights have had upwards of 30 seats empty because of weight restrictions. Yes I know, I'm listening to an FA but they are usually aware of weight restrictions day of the flight.



Not a surprise as the 737-700 is not a limited as the 800 series due to winds and the fact that WN fly's them with higher seat counts. WN has 175 seats on the 800 & 143 on the 700 series, UA has 166 on the 800 & . UA is always cutting pass capacity on the 700 & 800 to Hawaii in winter. With 9 fewer seats to start with in the 800 & 17-19 on the 700. So why is it a surprise WN is limiting seats westbound. The more passenger seats the less range and ETOPS eats range for lunch.
 
swacle
Posts: 532
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2003 1:41 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:53 pm

737max8 wrote:
durangomac wrote:
737max8 wrote:

I don't think weight has often been a problem westbound to Hawaii. And I thought WN just shared 90%+ load factors on west coast to Hawaii in 2019?



During the summer months that is true, headwinds during the summer aren't that big of an issue. My info comes from an FA that fly Hawaii flights often and she says most of her flights westbound have had weight restrictions. Apparently WN revenue management is having to hold back 30-40 seats on every westbound flight during the winter until they get closer in when more accurate wind prediction is available a few days out from the flight, at that point they can release seats for sales. She says that some of her flights have had upwards of 30 seats empty because of weight restrictions. Yes I know, I'm listening to an FA but they are usually aware of weight restrictions day of the flight.


I look at those flights all the time and don't think I ever seen 30-40 seats held. I think the most I've seen is like 8.


That sounds about right. The first couple weeks of service 18, IIRC, were blocked. Since then it has been far fewer.
Aircraft Flown: SF3 DH8 DH4 328 ERJ CRJ CR7 CR9 E70 E75 D9S M80 712 72S 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 752 318 319 32
 
JonesNL
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:41 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
SXDFC wrote:
I've heard a rumor that WN was looking at some -800s from Norwegian, perhaps someone else might be able to confirm/deny it.


I hope so. WN badly needs more planes.


New deliveries from Boeing of the B737-700 by Southwest Airlines from 17. Dec. 1997 to 21. Dec. 2011 were 362 jets.
Planespotters lists the Southwest fleet of Boeing 737-700 as 504 current and 10 historic.

Southwest has a long history of purchasing used jets, as they don't lease many.

The empty and maximum takeoff weight of the A220-330 and the B737-700 are almost identical, but it has slightly longer range at greater fuel efficiency.

B737-700
OEW 37.65 t
MTOW:70.08 t
Fuel capacity:26,022 L
Range: 3,010 nmi

A220-300
OEW:37.08 t
MTOW:69.90 t
Fuel capacity:21,508 L
Range: 3,350 nmi


Based on these numbers I have run the simple math for the 737-700 with 143 pax and the A220-300 with 150pax. The fuel economy is as follows per nmi per pax:
737-700 = 0.06L
A220-300 = 0.043L
A220-300 uses 39,5% less fuel per passenger.

In 2019 WN spend $4,34 billion ($4,61 in 2018) on fuel. So that would accumulate to a saving of $1,71 billion per year.

I know this is quite a simplistic view, but I would guess that fuel savings would offset quite a large portion of the costs of changing to the A220. Not sure how this compares against the 737 Max 7.
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
WN's corporate culture used to be risk taking and aggressive. Now it is stodgy and ultra conservative imho.

Except that in reality, the exact opposite is the case.



Can you explain?
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8534
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:15 pm

JonesNL wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

I hope so. WN badly needs more planes.


New deliveries from Boeing of the B737-700 by Southwest Airlines from 17. Dec. 1997 to 21. Dec. 2011 were 362 jets.
Planespotters lists the Southwest fleet of Boeing 737-700 as 504 current and 10 historic.

Southwest has a long history of purchasing used jets, as they don't lease many.

The empty and maximum takeoff weight of the A220-330 and the B737-700 are almost identical, but it has slightly longer range at greater fuel efficiency.

B737-700
OEW 37.65 t
MTOW:70.08 t
Fuel capacity:26,022 L
Range: 3,010 nmi

A220-300
OEW:37.08 t
MTOW:69.90 t
Fuel capacity:21,508 L
Range: 3,350 nmi


Based on these numbers I have run the simple math for the 737-700 with 143 pax and the A220-300 with 150pax. The fuel economy is as follows per nmi per pax:
737-700 = 0.06L
A220-300 = 0.043L
A220-300 uses 39,5% less fuel per passenger.

In 2019 WN spend $4,34 billion ($4,61 in 2018) on fuel. So that would accumulate to a saving of $1,71 billion per year.

I know this is quite a simplistic view, but I would guess that fuel savings would offset quite a large portion of the costs of changing to the A220. Not sure how this compares against the 737 Max 7.


The max 7 isn't even the relevant comparison. All new deliveries to WN have been 737-800s and Max 8s since December 2011. And how long would it take to get 600+ A220-300s? :(
 
JonesNL
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

New deliveries from Boeing of the B737-700 by Southwest Airlines from 17. Dec. 1997 to 21. Dec. 2011 were 362 jets.
Planespotters lists the Southwest fleet of Boeing 737-700 as 504 current and 10 historic.

Southwest has a long history of purchasing used jets, as they don't lease many.

The empty and maximum takeoff weight of the A220-330 and the B737-700 are almost identical, but it has slightly longer range at greater fuel efficiency.

B737-700
OEW 37.65 t
MTOW:70.08 t
Fuel capacity:26,022 L
Range: 3,010 nmi

A220-300
OEW:37.08 t
MTOW:69.90 t
Fuel capacity:21,508 L
Range: 3,350 nmi


Based on these numbers I have run the simple math for the 737-700 with 143 pax and the A220-300 with 150pax. The fuel economy is as follows per nmi per pax:
737-700 = 0.06L
A220-300 = 0.043L
A220-300 uses 39,5% less fuel per passenger.

In 2019 WN spend $4,34 billion ($4,61 in 2018) on fuel. So that would accumulate to a saving of $1,71 billion per year.

I know this is quite a simplistic view, but I would guess that fuel savings would offset quite a large portion of the costs of changing to the A220. Not sure how this compares against the 737 Max 7.


The max 7 isn't even the relevant comparison. All new deliveries to WN have been 737-800s and Max 8s since December 2011. And how long would it take to get 600+ A220-300s? :(

Like I said, simplistic view. I did not take the 7M8 or the feasibility in to account.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13350
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:22 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
WN's corporate culture used to be risk taking and aggressive. Now it is stodgy and ultra conservative imho.

Except that in reality, the exact opposite is the case.

Can you explain?

Southwest's historical AVERSION to risk has been both its biggest asset and its biggest liability.

How quickly we seem to forget as to how conservative/risk averse pre-2000 Southwest (aka "Herb's airline") actually was:
  • Refusal to venture into primary airports, with the few they actually tried (e.g. SFO, DEN, etc) quickly being closed
  • Refusal to scale even the 737 in size
  • Aversion to changing their IT, such that they theoretically couldn't do red-eyes, or (true) codeshares
  • etc etc
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
ElroyJetson
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 5:04 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Except that in reality, the exact opposite is the case.

Can you explain?

Southwest's historical AVERSION to risk has been both its biggest asset and its biggest liability.

How quickly we seem to forget as to how conservative/risk averse pre-2000 Southwest (aka "Herb's airline") actually was:
  • Refusal to venture into primary airports, with the few they actually tried (e.g. SFO, DEN, etc) quickly being closed
  • Refusal to scale even the 737 in size
  • Aversion to changing their IT, such that they theoretically couldn't do red-eyes, or (true) codeshares
  • etc etc



Okay. Thank you. Very fair points. I guess my perception was based in part on Herb's unconventional public persona and the fact WN seemed to buck the established legacy carriers back in the day. But you're right. once they established their formula they really have never wavvered which as you say has been both good and bad.
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737max8
Posts: 653
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:07 pm

swacle wrote:
737max8 wrote:
durangomac wrote:


During the summer months that is true, headwinds during the summer aren't that big of an issue. My info comes from an FA that fly Hawaii flights often and she says most of her flights westbound have had weight restrictions. Apparently WN revenue management is having to hold back 30-40 seats on every westbound flight during the winter until they get closer in when more accurate wind prediction is available a few days out from the flight, at that point they can release seats for sales. She says that some of her flights have had upwards of 30 seats empty because of weight restrictions. Yes I know, I'm listening to an FA but they are usually aware of weight restrictions day of the flight.


I look at those flights all the time and don't think I ever seen 30-40 seats held. I think the most I've seen is like 8.


That sounds about right. The first couple weeks of service 18, IIRC, were blocked. Since then it has been far fewer.


Yeah, I wasn't counting the first few flights when there wasn't any operating experience. I even heard most of those ended up not needing all the seats blocked. Early on the nonrevs that got on HI flights were because they didn't need the handful of blocked seats ha. Any discussion of seats being blocked westbound to HI is about something extremely minimal.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Southwest misses on Q4 Earnings

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:50 pm

Southwest fleet
503 Boeing 737-700 (362 ordered new directly from Boeing)
207 Boeing 737-800 (202 ordered new directly from Boeing)
34 Boeing 737-8MAX

MIflyer12 wrote:
All new deliveries to WN have been 737-800s and Max 8s since December 2011. (


Absolutely true.


MIflyer12 wrote:
And how long would it take to get 600+ A220-300s? :(


First, you are talking about at least 15 years to phase out all of the B737-700s because as you pointed out the youngest are only 8 years old.

Second, Southwest is flying nearly half of the active B737-700s and they retired 195 B737-300s with 137 seat capacity, 25 B737-500s and 62 B737-200s with 122 seat capacity, so the smaller jets have been part of their business plan for over a half a century,

Third, it is highly unlikely that Southwest will want to grow the numbers of their smaller capacity jets. On the other hand it is also unlikely that they will want to take the 143 seat fleet to zero and have an entire fleet of 175 seat capacity. Theoretically, if WN were to purchase the A220-300 the order would likely to be some fraction of 500 jets.

Last June 2019 Southwest averaged 52 round trip international flights per day, and only 9 were using the B737-800. The rest were conducted with the B7373-700. So I don't think it is obvious at all that the smaller size jet won't fit into Southwest's long term future business plans.

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