Airliners.net

Polot wrote:

NG263 wrote:

-a brand that is not only ever since recognized and connected to German holidays but has also made its name overseas for example in the US. And a good name is more valuable than most people think. Eurowings (long haul) for example is still fairly new & not well known outside of Europe.

I think you are overestimating the strength of the Condor brand overseas. It is still a largely unknown brand in the US that primarily targets European (German) POS.

I remember at least one person on this forum calling for Thomas Cook Airlines to be rebranded Condor. How many people in the UK besides aviation enthusiasts, employees or folk who visit Germany/other destinations Condor serves and are observant at airports have heard of Condor compared to Thomas Cook?

That scenario is academic though given what happened last year.

As for Condor's future, given all that's gone on and how this summer season is probably a write-off, I am fearful for their future. It mustn't be nice for employees to be facing an uncertain future again for the second time in 7 months.

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

5000 jobs are nothing in the next months, that is probably not even half of what LH will lay off, and nothing compared to the number that all business in Germany will lay off. In a good scenario those 5000 would maybe be 1% of all people loosing their job.

Keeping LH honest is also not a problem, as the first thing is to keep LH alive. And if the are later squeezing the customers, well this money will benefit the state directly, either as a share holder or when selling the shares.

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers.

That problem will work itself out, once demand picks up and the available slots will be given to other airlines. It is not as if the slots will be handed to LH, they will be available for other interested airlines, be it Easy, FR or TUI. And if there are not takers for the slots, it is probably better to have a LH monopoly than some routes completely unserved.

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

5000 jobs are nothing in the next months, that is probably not even half of what LH will lay off, and nothing compared to the number that all business in Germany will lay off. In a good scenario those 5000 would maybe be 1% of all people loosing their job.

Keeping LH honest is also not a problem, as the first thing is to keep LH alive. And if the are later squeezing the customers, well this money will benefit the state directly, either as a share holder or when selling the shares.

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers..

You assume that nobody can enter the market. You may have a point if LH would be able to squat slots at FRA. However, any airline from the EU can enter most markets LH serves (and espcially those which Condor currently serves) if the profits are too high. I think we'll have to get accustom that fares will be higher in the coming years. This is good news as it makes the aviation business healthier, ensure that the laons are getting repayed and the added bonus that it keeps the Green politicians silent.

Boeing74741R wrote:

Polot wrote:

NG263 wrote:

-a brand that is not only ever since recognized and connected to German holidays but has also made its name overseas for example in the US. And a good name is more valuable than most people think. Eurowings (long haul) for example is still fairly new & not well known outside of Europe.

I think you are overestimating the strength of the Condor brand overseas. It is still a largely unknown brand in the US that primarily targets European (German) POS.

I remember at least one person on this forum calling for Thomas Cook Airlines to be rebranded Condor. How many people in the UK besides aviation enthusiasts, employees or folk who visit Germany/other destinations Condor serves and are observant at airports have heard of Condor compared to Thomas Cook?

That scenario is academic though given what happened last year.

As for Condor's future, given all that's gone on and how this summer season is probably a write-off, I am fearful for their future. It mustn't be nice for employees to be facing an uncertain future again for the second time in 7 months.

Thomas Cook wasn’t a strong brand overseas either. Most of the European leisure/charter carriers (past or present) have/had weak overseas recognition- they focus almost exclusively on Europeans and not other markets. The various airlines are just a means to transport the Europeans to their holiday destination. Mention TUI or any of their brands to any American and they will look at you like you have grown an extra head.

Condor might have better recognition compared to some of the other leisure carriers, but I wouldn’t say it’s strong.

Would be sad to see condor home, but the German government has larger fish to fry. I don’t think there will be a lot of support for rescuing a rather insignificant player when there are much larger companies that gonna need support.

We'll know today, most likely. The original loan from the TC bankruptcy is due to be repaid today, April 15th. Condor has had some money 'frozen' as a result of that deal (to ensure that customers would get their money back even if Condor folds) that could be used to repay the loan but that's only a viable option if Condor secures other financing.

seahawk wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

5000 jobs are nothing in the next months, that is probably not even half of what LH will lay off, and nothing compared to the number that all business in Germany will lay off. In a good scenario those 5000 would maybe be 1% of all people loosing their job.

Keeping LH honest is also not a problem, as the first thing is to keep LH alive. And if the are later squeezing the customers, well this money will benefit the state directly, either as a share holder or when selling the shares.

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers.

That problem will work itself out, once demand picks up and the available slots will be given to other airlines.

LJ wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

5000 jobs are nothing in the next months, that is probably not even half of what LH will lay off, and nothing compared to the number that all business in Germany will lay off. In a good scenario those 5000 would maybe be 1% of all people loosing their job.

Keeping LH honest is also not a problem, as the first thing is to keep LH alive. And if the are later squeezing the customers, well this money will benefit the state directly, either as a share holder or when selling the shares.

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers..

You assume that nobody can enter the market.

Sarcasm alert - with objective fact: Yes, because the last twenty years have shown it's really easy for new carriers to form in U.S. and European markets and achieve economies of scale! That will be really easy to do against competitors which have a surplus of slots, aircraft and employees.

Polot wrote:

NG263 wrote:

-a brand that is not only ever since recognized and connected to German holidays but has also made its name overseas for example in the US. And a good name is more valuable than most people think. Eurowings (long haul) for example is still fairly new & not well known outside of Europe.

I think you are overestimating the strength of the Condor brand overseas. It is still a largely unknown brand in the US that primarily targets European (German) POS.

I think that has been shifting within the past couple of years.

Last year they did an extensive marketing campaign in the DC area advertising their flights from BWI with onward connections ex FRA. Billboards, banners on bus stop shelters, ads in Metro stations, and then banners in Metro railcars themselves. A couple of my friends (who aren't familiar with aviation) took them last year and liked having the option of flying out of BWI instead of going all the way out to Dulles.

If Condor goes under, several medium-sized US cities will lose their only nonstop option to Continental Europe.

MIflyer12 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers.

That problem will work itself out, once demand picks up and the available slots will be given to other airlines.

LJ wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

That doesn't address the problem of keeping LH honest. Competition is supposed to be a driver of consumer prices. Letting LH charge monopoly prices (even if the government prospers when selling it share) is unfair to consumers..

You assume that nobody can enter the market.

Sarcasm alert - with objective fact: Yes, because the last twenty years have shown it's really easy for new carriers to form in U.S. and European markets and achieve economies of scale! That will be really easy to do against competitors which have a surplus of slots, aircraft and employees.

And when in the last 20 years did we have something similar to the current crisis?

The only valid reason for a nationalization of Condor is likely to facilitate an orderly wind-down, likely with slots being and ensuring that the LH Group doesn't get it...that is, to make either EC or FR (or an FR-owned subsidiary) a true competitor to the LH Group to keep them honest on short-haul and domestic Germany...and a desire to sell the long haul operations to X3, again, to keep the LH Group honest on sun destinations.

At least right now, all aircraft are on the ground, and so if DE is to be wound down, there's no repatriation to do.

As for the fleet:

B753: 13 of 15 leased (11 from Altavair AirFinance and 2 from Boeing)...these could be remarketed to Icelandair or the US3, especially for transcon with a lie-flat seat. The 11 leased from Altavair were sold and leased back in 2012.
B763: 14 of 16 leased (8 from Castlelake, 2 from GECAS, 4 from AerCap) - all at least 19 years old. I see freighter conversions as most likely, as these are 4-door and 4 overwing exit frames.
A320s: all 10 owned, but none newer than 19 years old line number 1437. I see these going to ACMI operators or scrap.
A321s: all 10 leased - all but 1 have winglets, and some might also have just had fresh checks done. These should quickly find new homes, but they are CFM-powered.

I could see the German government buying the leased B753s to then sell. Icelandair and Delta could be buyers; Icelandair could use frames on hops no farther than Chicago and this could also delay fleet replacement needs.

According to unconfirmed leaks, Condor will receive a government loan but the German state will not become a (partial) owner of the company, there will be no nationalization. The original TC bankruptcy loan that was due to be paid last wednesday was extended to, well, today April 17th...
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/ferienfli ... DRF6Y.html [German]

aemoreira1981 wrote:

B763: 14 of 16 leased (8 from Castlelake, 2 from GECAS, 4 from AerCap) - all at least 19 years old. I see freighter conversions as most likely, as these are 4-door and 4 overwing exit frames.

I could see the German government buying the leased B753s to then sell. Icelandair and Delta could be buyers; Icelandair could use frames on hops no farther than Chicago and this could also delay fleet replacement needs.

Condor only has a few 767-300s that have more than 2 doors (1L/R front, 2L/R in back).

usxguy wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

B763: 14 of 16 leased (8 from Castlelake, 2 from GECAS, 4 from AerCap) - all at least 19 years old. I see freighter conversions as most likely, as these are 4-door and 4 overwing exit frames.

I could see the German government buying the leased B753s to then sell. Icelandair and Delta could be buyers; Icelandair could use frames on hops no farther than Chicago and this could also delay fleet replacement needs.

Condor only has a few 767-300s that have more than 2 doors (1L/R front, 2L/R in back).

All of Condors 767 have the same door configuration. They leased Thomas Cook 763s until they were retired which had the door configuration with the 1 and 2 full size exit doors. Only manufactured difference between the original DE 767-330ER and the leased pre owned ones is the engine type.

We all know what Is going to happen: Condor is going to end up back at the mothership (Mutterschiff?), Lufthansa. Where it belongs.

Just get on with it already.

mxaxai wrote:

According to unconfirmed leaks, Condor will receive a government loan but the German state will not become a (partial) owner of the company, there will be no nationalization. The original TC bankruptcy loan that was due to be paid last wednesday was extended to, well, today April 17th...
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/ferienfli ... DRF6Y.html [German]

No solution yet, rumour is that the initial loan has been extended to early next week.

One discussion is to follow the “Corona”-loans, which require 20% funding by banks. Might also be a scape goat if DE can’t secure it to let the company go bust.

vhtje wrote:

We all know what Is going to happen: Condor is going to end up back at the mothership (Mutterschiff?), Lufthansa. Where it belongs.

Just get on with it already.

In the current environment? Unlikely... Lufthansa have just thrown Germanwings in the bin, to then take on Condor would be completely counteractive.

I can imagine that Lufthansa feel as though they had a lucky escape.

Ryga wrote:

vhtje wrote:

We all know what Is going to happen: Condor is going to end up back at the mothership (Mutterschiff?), Lufthansa. Where it belongs.

Just get on with it already.

In the current environment? Unlikely... Lufthansa have just thrown Germanwings in the bin, to then take on Condor would be completely counteractive.

I can imagine that Lufthansa feel as though they had a lucky escape.

Or.... Luftwaffe end up getting get Condor for a song.

Yes, I know these are unprecedented and extremely uncertain times, and the play that we are all watching is a long one, with many, many acts, with many twists to come. But my prediction is Condor will end up back under LH’s wings, one way or another. Time will prove me right.

also, are all the aircraft finally painted in the "updated" Condor colors, or are there still some in the Thomas Cook livery?

vhtje wrote:

Ryga wrote:

vhtje wrote:

We all know what Is going to happen: Condor is going to end up back at the mothership (Mutterschiff?), Lufthansa. Where it belongs.

Just get on with it already.

In the current environment? Unlikely... Lufthansa have just thrown Germanwings in the bin, to then take on Condor would be completely counteractive.

I can imagine that Lufthansa feel as though they had a lucky escape.

Or.... Luftwaffe end up getting get Condor for a song.

Yes, I know these are unprecedented and extremely uncertain times, and the play that we are all watching is a long one, with many, many acts, with many twists to come. But my prediction is Condor will end up back under LH’s wings, one way or another. Time will prove me right.

I cannot see short-haul ops ending up with Lufthansa. Lufthansa may end up being allowed to buy or take on plane leases (I definitely see LH being interested in the short-haul fleet, especially with 29 A321-100s to replace within the Group), but not slots, which would be auctioned off separately. The oldest A321s in the Lufthansa Group are pushing 27 years old...every one of those A321-100s was acquired new by its operator. The acquisition of the Air Berlin short-haul fleet was also a way to speed up fleet renewal, as the lessors sold the planes the Lufthansa Group acquired to the Group.

Realistically speaking what would Lufthansa really gain from Condor? I noticed that there is an increasing number of LH airplanes operating charter flights to sunny destinations. This winter they had quite a few flights to Marsa Alam in Egypt then they introduced scheduled flights to Tivat in Montenegro that don't connect to anything but times are great for tour operators, few years ago they also launched Pula in Croatia.

Are we seeing a shift here? Is Lufthansa increasingly entering the charter market that was once dominated by airlines like Condor?

Blerg wrote:

Realistically speaking what would Lufthansa really gain from Condor? ...

From Condor itself? Probably not much.
What makes sense for Lufthansa is buying, post-liquidation, Condor brand (maybe AOC, if available).
Otherwise, with SO MUCH overcapacity sloshing around, for the moment, buying an extra airline is pointless for LH group.

Phosphorus wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Realistically speaking what would Lufthansa really gain from Condor? ...

From Condor itself? Probably not much.
What makes sense for Lufthansa is buying, post-liquidation, Condor brand (maybe AOC, if available).
Otherwise, with SO MUCH overcapacity sloshing around, for the moment, buying an extra airline is pointless for LH group.

Maybe they could rebrand Eurowings as Condor since EW has introduced some Condor's destinations once LO announced the takeover. Condor sounds much nicer than Eurowings.

Blerg wrote:

Phosphorus wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Realistically speaking what would Lufthansa really gain from Condor? ...

From Condor itself? Probably not much.
What makes sense for Lufthansa is buying, post-liquidation, Condor brand (maybe AOC, if available).
Otherwise, with SO MUCH overcapacity sloshing around, for the moment, buying an extra airline is pointless for LH group.

Maybe they could rebrand Eurowings as Condor since EW has introduced some Condor's destinations once LO announced the takeover. Condor sounds much nicer than Eurowings.

This. Lufthansa is struggling with his LCC branding (GermanWings, EuroWings). Condor as a LCC (SH)/leisure (SH and LH) brand could work.

This is a pretty bad time for an airline to look for buyers. Especially when you had problems before Corona like Condor having lost TC. Wouldn't they need another travel group to buy them in order to get enough package tourists filling their seats? Or could they just move on as somebody's low-cost long range airline?

Noshow wrote:

This is a pretty bad time for an airline to look for buyers. Especially when you had problems before Corona like Condor having lost TC. Wouldn't they need another travel group to buy them in order to get enough package tourists filling their seats? Or could they just move on as somebody's low-cost long range airline?

Travel groups are fighting for their lives. Getting to the other side of this pandemic crisis is the name of the game, and taking on extra liabilities and costs is a luxury at the moment. Only if you have a very big pot of cash, and willingness to deploy it, should you consider such a luxury.

So no, buying assets that do not require much costs to maintain (brands) would make a lot of sense. Buying high-fixed costs assets (airline company) when there's no revenue coming in does not make a lot of sense.

usxguy wrote:

also, are all the aircraft finally painted in the "updated" Condor colors, or are there still some in the Thomas Cook livery?

If according to this website, there are a few in the fleet that still has the 'Sunny Heart' logo

https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/condor

DUSZRH wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

According to unconfirmed leaks, Condor will receive a government loan but the German state will not become a (partial) owner of the company, there will be no nationalization. The original TC bankruptcy loan that was due to be paid last wednesday was extended to, well, today April 17th...
https://www.rnd.de/wirtschaft/ferienfli ... DRF6Y.html [German]

No solution yet, rumour is that the initial loan has been extended to early next week.

One discussion is to follow the “Corona”-loans, which require 20% funding by banks. Might also be a scape goat if DE can’t secure it to let the company go bust.

Report today is that Germany will extend the original 380 mln € loan for an undetermined time, and will add another 200 mln € to the loan. Nothing official yet.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04 ... Position=5

With the extra loans now confirmed, what is the path forwards for Condor from here? Is there any chance that they could move to build up in the role that Air Berlin was supposed to fill at BER, assuming it ever opens? With Lufthansa cutting agreements, why stick to a FRA hub? Could Condor's model work for the growing German capital market? It sits between low-cost and legacy service...

AaronPGH wrote:

With the extra loans now confirmed, what is the path forwards for Condor from here? Is there any chance that they could move to build up in the role that Air Berlin was supposed to fill at BER, assuming it ever opens? With Lufthansa cutting agreements, why stick to a FRA hub? Could Condor's model work for the growing German capital market? It sits between low-cost and legacy service...

Their current and previous long haul markets are more profitable. Berlin does not provide a lot of premium traffic (maybe less of an issue for DE) and is not best placed as a hub to fill their wide bodies- especially on routes to the US and the Caribbean. They would have to team up with someone to provide their feed (as LH do in FRA and MUC for them right now)

Westerwaelder wrote:

AaronPGH wrote:

With the extra loans now confirmed, what is the path forwards for Condor from here? Is there any chance that they could move to build up in the role that Air Berlin was supposed to fill at BER, assuming it ever opens? With Lufthansa cutting agreements, why stick to a FRA hub? Could Condor's model work for the growing German capital market? It sits between low-cost and legacy service...

Their current and previous long haul markets are more profitable. Berlin does not provide a lot of premium traffic (maybe less of an issue for DE) and is not best placed as a hub to fill their wide bodies- especially on routes to the US and the Caribbean. They would have to team up with someone to provide their feed (as LH do in FRA and MUC for them right now)

Got it. So I'm guessing most of their long-haul markets are purely O&D? Just wondering if that profitability holds when the LH agreements are gone.

AaronPGH wrote:

Westerwaelder wrote:

AaronPGH wrote:

With the extra loans now confirmed, what is the path forwards for Condor from here? Is there any chance that they could move to build up in the role that Air Berlin was supposed to fill at BER, assuming it ever opens? With Lufthansa cutting agreements, why stick to a FRA hub? Could Condor's model work for the growing German capital market? It sits between low-cost and legacy service...

Their current and previous long haul markets are more profitable. Berlin does not provide a lot of premium traffic (maybe less of an issue for DE) and is not best placed as a hub to fill their wide bodies- especially on routes to the US and the Caribbean. They would have to team up with someone to provide their feed (as LH do in FRA and MUC for them right now)

Got it. So I'm guessing most of their long-haul markets are purely O&D? Just wondering if that profitability holds when the LH agreements are gone.

I would think the LH feed is an important element of their long haul services from Frankfurt and Munich. LH are not likely to continue to feed them and have said as much (though I would imagine that will depend on EW and what happens there). LH might find being able to offer DE long haul destinations convenient in the nearer future instead of flying there themselves?

My point was around DE not having any feed in Berlin so would need to work with U2. Berlin also means backtracking from all the other German metro areas for flights to the US and Caribbean. And it lacks the affluence of a Munich, Dusseldorf or Frankfurt.

What do you guys think? Will Condor survive the crisis after the deal with LOT is blown? Their main purpose, holiday flights, are currently being completely eliminated. A large part of the fleet is on the ground, only their long-haul Boeing 767s fly daily from And to China and Korea to bring medical supplies to Germany - whoever pays for these flights! But after that? Even if the holiday flights are resumed, it will be far from back to the old strength.

I'm just wondering if I can book a flight with Condor in September or if I'd rather look for an alternative. Opinions and estimations of the users here about the sustainability of Condor I would find helpful. Thanks

AirbusOnly wrote:

What do you guys think? Will Condor survive the crisis after the deal with LOT is blown? Their main purpose, holiday flights, are currently being completely eliminated. A large part of the fleet is on the ground, only their long-haul Boeing 767s fly daily from And to China and Korea to bring medical supplies to Germany - whoever pays for these flights! But after that? Even if the holiday flights are resumed, it will be far from back to the old strength.

I'm just wondering if I can book a flight with Condor in September or if I'd rather look for an alternative. Opinions and estimations of the users here about the sustainability of Condor I would find helpful. Thanks

The passenger airline scene, worldwide, at the moment, is a place where pretty much everyone is bankrupt, but very few are ready to admit it. Not the airlines themselves, nor the leasing companies, nor the governments, nor the aircraft builders.
So yeah, there will be overcapacity, and no, the natural course of events, with bankrupts (pretty much all pax airlines) put through the purgatory of Ch.11 and its equivalent, will not be allowed to run its course. At least, not yet.
So, most airlines will subsist on flying cargo on pax planes and begging taxpayers for money, for now.

Having said that, yeah, holiday flights model does not look too good for survival, near to medium term. Fleet age could work both ways -- retiring old fleet is relatively painless for the balance sheet. But if the owned planes have no equity in them -- borrowing capacity is reduced.

In the final analysis, survival (or not) of the airlines is a political, rather than purely economic, matter. If taxpayers will propel Condor till September -- it will fly. If it is supposed to fend for itself -- not necessarily.

Two B 757-300 of Condor are on the way to Bangor currently....could it be a stopover on the way to, say, Marana or Victorville? Who knows more?

https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4656/24b9cba8
https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4674/24b9c0e3

AirbusOnly wrote:

Two B 757-300 of Condor are on the way to Bangor currently....could it be a stopover on the way to, say, Marana or Victorville? Who knows more?

https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4656/24b9cba8
https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4674/24b9c0e3

These are the two ex-MT frames & are oddballs due to a different config (275Y vs. 280Y). They are at the end of lease from BCC & contracts were not renewed. They are on their way to Marana.

AirbusOnly wrote:

Two B 757-300 of Condor are on the way to Bangor currently....could it be a stopover on the way to, say, Marana or Victorville? Who knows more?

https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4656/24b9cba8
https://www.flightradar24.com/CFG4674/24b9c0e3

Indeed, they were heading to MZJ.

Boeing 757 -3CQ 32241 960 D-ABOP Condor ferried 18-19jun20 FRA-BGR-MZJ on retun to lessor (+ 32242/963 D-ABOR ex G-JMAB) ex G-JMAA

https://www.airliners.de/condor-schutzs ... hren/57845 [German]

Condor starting a better future

One year after the start of the reorganisation process, Condor plans to leave it in November. The creditors will meet on Thursday this week to decide on the plan that enables the return to regular business. A new investor is hoped to be found after the Corona crisis.
[...]
If the creditors agree, the sought-for investor would be replaced by a trustee, the so-called SG Luftverkehrsgesellschaft. The current management would remain in office and a new investor search should only start once the situation in the corona-plagued aviation industry has calmed down again. "This may be the case in 12 months, or up to 36 months from now".
[...]
This comfortable state of suspense is made possible by a long-term loan of 550 million euros from the state-owned KfW Bank. This loan replaces another, much shorter loan that was supposed to let Condor be taken over by the Polish state airline Lot.
[...]
Even more important are new collective agreements with the Verdi, Ufo and Vereinigung Cockpit unions. They bring significant cost advantages and do not rule out layoffs in the event of a bad development ...

For the upcoming winter season, Condor expects a traffic volume of 10-20% compared to last year but is able to react quickly if demand picks up. They're hoping to fill at least 70% of pre-COVID capacity in summer 2021. It is noted that travel agencies remain loyal to Condor because (a) they want to reinforce competition against LH and (b) DE has been quite reliable throughout the crisis.

I think DE has a reasonable chance to survive this crisis, though they'll likely end up getting bought by somebody in the long term. I would not be surprised if Lot makes another offer post-COVID.