Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1502
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:15 am

SumChristianus wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always enilria!!

enilria wrote:
UA DEN-XNA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]


I think we've gone from 2x daily (2018 and prior) to now 4x daily this upcoming summer. Looks like the route is moving from 3x on the CRJ to 4x on the E145...should make some people happy. XNA-DEN is up over 75% in passengers from Nov '18 to Oct '19 versus the previous year. Between UA and F9, they're not making my hopes of DL adding SLC for west coast connections very high.

The route also gets some E175s this winter/spring, so there's also hope of some larger jets on the route eventually with all of UA's general growth planned for DEN.

RKS, CPR, PRC, FAT also get an additional DEN flight YOY. The planned 6th daily BOS is cut though as is an MSY rotation.



If anything it shows that Delta is either losing existing market or failing to gain new market share. Maybe they should add SLC at least seasonally at first and with AA now doing 2 a day to LA, maybe LAX and skip over the whole SLC thing. ATL and MSP is some serious backtracking for XNA and people do value time.
 
n2dru
Posts: 192
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:44 am

WA707atMSP wrote:
I'm surprised AA is able to sustain 4x day on ATL-LAX, because it's hub to hub for DL.


Its a large o&d market plus a lot of Hollywood/related industry traffic. And I've been told AA hold a lot of the major studios travel contracts.
 
keithvh2001
Posts: 28
Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:58 am

enilria wrote:
AA CYS-DFW MAY 1.8>1.0[1.9] JUN 2>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[1.9] AUG 2>1.0[2.0] SEP 2>1.0[2.0] OCT 2>1.0[1.1]


That's literally 50% of Cheyenne's daily commercial flights. AA came into CYS in November 2018 with a daily flight to DFW, and rather quickly upped that to 2 daily flights for summer 2019.

But now summer 2020 will be one.

In theory (DEN is the big gorilla nearby but it's a bit of a drive, and 100K people live in Laramie County, plus you could get some Fort Collins people to drive north), CYS could work. It doesn't seem to really work in reality.
 
Atlwarrior
Posts: 476
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:13 am

WA707atMSP wrote:
I'm surprised AA is able to sustain 4x day on ATL-LAX, because it's hub to hub for DL.


I’m not, a lot of Hollywood movie traffic pax between the two cities.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:26 am

Atlwarrior wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
I'm surprised AA is able to sustain 4x day on ATL-LAX, because it's hub to hub for DL.


I’m not, a lot of Hollywood movie traffic pax between the two cities.


Also, AA's not exactly a weak carrier in ATL. They have over 50 daily departures in peak season, which is one of the biggest outstation operations for any of the US3.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3630
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:38 am

FSDan wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
I'm surprised AA is able to sustain 4x day on ATL-LAX, because it's hub to hub for DL.


I’m not, a lot of Hollywood movie traffic pax between the two cities.


Also, AA's not exactly a weak carrier in ATL. They have over 50 daily departures in peak season, which is one of the biggest outstation operations for any of the US3.

AA isn't "sustaining" 4X. The fourth flight is new so no one knows if it's sustainable. AA's performance is already weak in this market compared to DL. If anything some of AA's customers were probably complaining about the schedule and considering moving over to DL so AA was forced to add capacity in a bad market.

AA PRASM on the route was 17% lower than DL in Q3 2019. AA generated both lower loads and lower fares than DL.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5188
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:10 am

On AA's LAX-ATL frequencies, the questions no one is asking is how much of that traffic is O&D Los Angeles, and how much is connecting for destinations throughout the Pacific? Perhaps the fourth flight is meant for connections.
 
n2dru
Posts: 192
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:19 am

Rdh3e wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Atlwarrior wrote:

I’m not, a lot of Hollywood movie traffic pax between the two cities.


Also, AA's not exactly a weak carrier in ATL. They have over 50 daily departures in peak season, which is one of the biggest outstation operations for any of the US3.

AA isn't "sustaining" 4X. The fourth flight is new so no one knows if it's sustainable. AA's performance is already weak in this market compared to DL. If anything some of AA's customers were probably complaining about the schedule and considering moving over to DL so AA was forced to add capacity in a bad market.

AA PRASM on the route was 17% lower than DL in Q3 2019. AA generated both lower loads and lower fares than DL.


Why add flights in a bad market? (your words) Especially if it overflies your biggest hub? AA has flown ATLLAX x 3 for a few years, so are those flights sustaining? I don't follow your logic here. Yes DL dominates the route however AA is quite large at LAX (3rd largest in ATL btw) and has studio contracts and there is a lot of Hollywood/related industry traffic between the two cities.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:22 pm

The question asked about ATL-LAX could also be asked about MCO/BOS-LAX for AA. Why does AA keep these frequency levels if they are so underperforming? The reason should be pretty obvious. Their clients demand it. Apparently, AA has had a lot of success at LA area with corporate client. In order to keep them around, you have to fly these routes that are in the red.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3630
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:41 pm

ckfred wrote:
On AA's LAX-ATL frequencies, the questions no one is asking is how much of that traffic is O&D Los Angeles, and how much is connecting for destinations throughout the Pacific? Perhaps the fourth flight is meant for connections.

The flights that feed the prime TransPac banks are already flown.

The fourth westbound flight is at a horrible time. It will be massively loss making:

Eastbound -
820
1402 (new) not a bad time, but basically pointless when they have the 1520.
1520
2240

Westbound -
700
1120
1650
2220 (new) completely misses their last bank, will be horrible. Probably won't break 40% load.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10284
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:33 pm

msycajun wrote:
Enilria wrote:

This is a schedule extension. JUN and SEP both have partial month comparison. If it is flat vs prior year it is not shown. Compare to prior year for months before AUG.
This is a bit of a strategy change. A lot more double daily markets outside Florida. Pretty much all non-daily domestic markets are gone. They area really leaving that strategy to G4 and F9. I imagine that is driven by their operational focus. Hard to get good reliability with non-daily routes.

Thanks as always for the report, I always look forward to it!

Regarding non-daily, I still see all of MSY's non daily routes bookable on spirit's website, but not reflected here. I wonder if there was some problem with the way they filed them?

Extended through the summer I see MSY-PHL/MSP 4 weekly and MSY-CLE/CMH 3 weekly.

So, if they are flat year over year at the point that they load the schedule they shouldn't appear and in the months where there were partial schedules the number of operations may have been so low that they didn't meet the minimum for the report? The combination of 2/wk or 3/wk flights and these partial month schedules creates a situation where there is no good way to code the report. I'm sure the flights are filed.
 
ryby92
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:33 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
ckfred wrote:
On AA's LAX-ATL frequencies, the questions no one is asking is how much of that traffic is O&D Los Angeles, and how much is connecting for destinations throughout the Pacific? Perhaps the fourth flight is meant for connections.

The flights that feed the prime TransPac banks are already flown.

The fourth westbound flight is at a horrible time. It will be massively loss making:

Eastbound -
820
1402 (new) not a bad time, but basically pointless when they have the 1520.
1520
2240

Westbound -
700
1120
1650
2220 (new) completely misses their last bank, will be horrible. Probably won't break 40% load.


I doubt that much of the traffic targeted other than maybe pacific is connecting. Surely there must be plenty of O/D traffic between these two major cities.

If the flights were so horrific why then increase to 4 and on larger equipment to boot? They have actually a decent amount of flights into ATL and are quite strong on the LA end. There is no denying the latter.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10284
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:38 pm

msycajun wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
msycajun wrote:
Thanks as always for the report, I always look forward to it!

Regarding non-daily, I still see all of MSY's non daily routes bookable on spirit's website, but not reflected here. I wonder if there was some problem with the way they filed them?

Extended through the summer I see MSY-PHL/MSP 4 weekly and MSY-CLE/CMH 3 weekly.


If year-over-year capacity on any route, including < daily and/or seasonal, is unchanged from the prior year, it won’t show up in enilria’s OAG reports.

I've followed the reports for years and that's never been the case. In fact, most of the NK routes in the report this week are simply extensions with no change of frequency from last year.

Normally this report doesn't consider year over year, only week over week changes, but in the case of carriers that don't file the full 330 schedule window (mostly LCCs) I wanted to do something to reduce their entire schedule being reposted every time they extend it. What I did was check with the prior year to see if it was the same and delete it. This creates problems when carriers file these partial month schedules. Because it looks as if frequency is changing, but it is really just a partial month. So you see a lot of things like JUN 0.3>1 AUG 0>..3 JUL doesn't appear because it was flat to last year. JUN appears because it looks like NK increased frequency, but they really just added more days of published schedule. AUG appears because to the programming it looks like a new route, but it is just a partial month schedule filed. I don't have a good way to fix that. I don't have schedules by day. Only by month.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3630
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:49 pm

ryby92 wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
ckfred wrote:
On AA's LAX-ATL frequencies, the questions no one is asking is how much of that traffic is O&D Los Angeles, and how much is connecting for destinations throughout the Pacific? Perhaps the fourth flight is meant for connections.

The flights that feed the prime TransPac banks are already flown.

The fourth westbound flight is at a horrible time. It will be massively loss making:

Eastbound -
820
1402 (new) not a bad time, but basically pointless when they have the 1520.
1520
2240

Westbound -
700
1120
1650
2220 (new) completely misses their last bank, will be horrible. Probably won't break 40% load.


I doubt that much of the traffic targeted other than maybe pacific is connecting. Surely there must be plenty of O/D traffic between these two major cities.

If the flights were so horrific why then increase to 4 and on larger equipment to boot? They have actually a decent amount of flights into ATL and are quite strong on the LA end. There is no denying the latter.

They are probably seeing customers in the film industry jump ship to Delta due to their better schedule and the increased connection between Hollywood and the state of Georgia. Like I said, their results are terrible in comparison to DL.

It could also just be a filing error. Having the two flights an hour apart Eastbound seems like a mistake - but hey, it's AA.
 
Thomaas
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:23 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
ryby92 wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
The flights that feed the prime TransPac banks are already flown.

The fourth westbound flight is at a horrible time. It will be massively loss making:

Eastbound -
820
1402 (new) not a bad time, but basically pointless when they have the 1520.
1520
2240

Westbound -
700
1120
1650
2220 (new) completely misses their last bank, will be horrible. Probably won't break 40% load.


I doubt that much of the traffic targeted other than maybe pacific is connecting. Surely there must be plenty of O/D traffic between these two major cities.

If the flights were so horrific why then increase to 4 and on larger equipment to boot? They have actually a decent amount of flights into ATL and are quite strong on the LA end. There is no denying the latter.

They are probably seeing customers in the film industry jump ship to Delta due to their better schedule and the increased connection between Hollywood and the state of Georgia. Like I said, their results are terrible in comparison to DL.

It could also just be a filing error. Having the two flights an hour apart Eastbound seems like a mistake - but hey, it's AA.


Care to compare how AA does on LAX-ATL vs DL on LAX-DFW? The hub carrier will always have better yields to a hub, otherwise they’re doing something wrong.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3630
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 1/26/2020:UA Cuts IAH-PBI,JAN-ORD;Adds ORD-MFR;NK Cuts JAX-DTW

Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:09 pm

Thomaas wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
ryby92 wrote:

I doubt that much of the traffic targeted other than maybe pacific is connecting. Surely there must be plenty of O/D traffic between these two major cities.

If the flights were so horrific why then increase to 4 and on larger equipment to boot? They have actually a decent amount of flights into ATL and are quite strong on the LA end. There is no denying the latter.

They are probably seeing customers in the film industry jump ship to Delta due to their better schedule and the increased connection between Hollywood and the state of Georgia. Like I said, their results are terrible in comparison to DL.

It could also just be a filing error. Having the two flights an hour apart Eastbound seems like a mistake - but hey, it's AA.


Care to compare how AA does on LAX-ATL vs DL on LAX-DFW? The hub carrier will always have better yields to a hub, otherwise they’re doing something wrong.

That is exactly my point. All I've said is that AA isn't growing the route because it's good. It's for other reasons.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos