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EADSYABSOB73857
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BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:38 am

BOS is similar to LAX in that it’s one of the largest and most fragmented markets in the country (I believe BOS is the 2nd largest after LA).
This thread is about BOS expansion, and the complexities associated with it:

-B6 upgauges and (separately from the upgauges) expansion to 200 flights (what will this do to infrastructure and pax #’s at BOS?
-BOS announced as a new DL hub in 2019, and stated growth to 200+ flights by 2021 (stated on DL earnings call)
-Recent AA growth at BOS- how far will this go? Is this a new area of growth for BOS; or is this continued payback for the DL acquisition of LATAM?
-As the MAX’s come back online, will we see WN re-add flights? Recent article came out, I believe in Routesonline where they stated they would add back cut frequencies/flights once the MAX comes back..
-Frontier/Spirit growth at BOS- how far will this go..?
-Will UA or a Star Alliance airline add a BOS-LHR route? (Biggest missing route in the Star Alliance).

Going forward, what can we expect in BOS from all this growth- as of this moment, BOS has some of the most growth announced for 2020, thus far..
 
FSDan
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:05 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
-BOS announced as a new DL hub in 2019, and stated growth to 200+ flights by 2021 (stated on DL earnings call)


Which earnings call was that - the most recent one? DL would need to operate ~10 turns a day out of each of their gates to achieve those sorts of numbers, which seems like a bit of a stretch, especially given that they have more and more long haul flights which are tying up gates for longer periods of time. They certainly have some more room for growth, but I was thinking they'd probably max out in the 170-180 range.
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ERAUMBA
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:23 am

B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats.

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.

AA has not grown beyond their 2000-2008 presence, in any way, shape or form.

Frontier/Spirit go nowhere - seasonal flying capturing seasonal passengers originating in-station is not a profit leader. A revenue leader for sure during those seasonal months, but expect nothing in terms of growth.

“Payback” from AA in the form of several additional frequencies that do not even reach the number of flights legacy AA operated prior to the merger? You need a history lesson....AA in Boston today, combined with US still is an empty shell of the original operations. You fail to factor in Eagle/USAir Express...

United goes nowhere - how many airlines can fly to London from Boston? (Capacity for namesake does not create profit - wouldn’t they be in the market already??)

The “MAX” is inconsequential at this point. Southwest has dropped more routes from Boston than any airline other than US/AA historically.

What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order.

Comparing BOS to LAX is an exercise in a.net futility.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:50 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
BOS is similar to LAX in that it’s one of the largest and most fragmented markets in the country (I believe BOS is the 2nd largest after LA).
This thread is about BOS expansion, and the complexities associated with it:

-B6 upgauges and (separately from the upgauges) expansion to 200 flights (what will this do to infrastructure and pax #’s at BOS?
-BOS announced as a new DL hub in 2019, and stated growth to 200+ flights by 2021 (stated on DL earnings call)
-Recent AA growth at BOS- how far will this go? Is this a new area of growth for BOS; or is this continued payback for the DL acquisition of LATAM?
-As the MAX’s come back online, will we see WN re-add flights? Recent article came out, I believe in Routesonline where they stated they would add back cut frequencies/flights once the MAX comes back..
-Frontier/Spirit growth at BOS- how far will this go..?
-Will UA or a Star Alliance airline add a BOS-LHR route? (Biggest missing route in the Star Alliance).

Going forward, what can we expect in BOS from all this growth- as of this moment, BOS has some of the most growth announced for 2020, thus far..


Lots to unpack here:

B6 Upgauging and flight increases. It wont do a whole lot, C will get busier and the terminal infrastructure may well suffer if they jam through another 1m+ , on the airside very little, they will get 2 new gates and access to all but C27 when the updates are done. However full capacity will depend on whether EI and TP hightail it over to E once the phase 1 expansion is done in 2021.

DL- unless DL jettison their TATL flight program over to E, A is going to get rammed due to all the regional flying. With 20 gates (plus a share of A1 with WS) 200 is going to make that exceedingly busy. Unless they go all mainline (which they won’t) even at 200 they won’t come close to B6’s numbers but could quite easily add another bunch of pax.

AA, jury is out. 2 new routes a trend does not make. Sure they are the first moves they have made in a long time, but they have 18 gates and will need to continue to add because the average gate usage at BOS is increasing and their long term leases are coming up, they do have a use it or lose it clause in their deal. DL, UA, and B6 do too, but onl UA would have similar concerns.

WN- all down to the Max, Massport gave them 5 gates, for WN that’s up to 55 departures a day, they are nowhere near that. So either Max flying is coming someday or WN also risk losing at least 1 of their 5.

NK- they have their 2 gates, they recently added some frequency, but are limited unless WN or AS decide to share or give up a gate

F9/G4 - their timetables are all down to Terminal E, they are using single gates at off peak times (mornings) before the Euro bank come in, in the afternoon. They will not get afternoon or evening slots, too valuable, however they could in theory get more morning slots, there is still room at those times.

UA have shown no propensity to do much from BOS outside of hub to hub flying. While LHR is a hole, can’t see it myself.

From Massport’s own projections (June board meeting minutes) they ended up 200k ahead of their 19 number and the expectation is 43.8m for 2020. After that, there is a slow climb to 50m by 2027. I know there is a slide that shows this but I can’t find it, if I do I will post the links that show that.

I do not see this as a cluster mess, I see airlines and Massport trying to use their limited facilities to their max, just look at how much E is used now. Aircraft movements are sum 80,000 a year lower than the record I saw in 1999. Now more of that was regional and the planes are bigger, so spend more time on their stands.
So BOS (as long as the economy stays bright), will continue to grow, it may not be at the heights that we have become accustomed to over the past few years, but growth will happen.

Just some musings...
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
ERAUMBA
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:17 am

B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats.

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.

AA has not grown beyond their 2000-2008 presence, in any way, shape or form.

Frontier/Spirit go nowhere - seasonal flying capturing seasonal passengers originating in-station is not a profit leader. A revenue leader for sure during those seasonal months, but expect nothing in terms of growth.

“Payback” from AA in the form of several additional frequencies that do not even reach the number of flights legacy AA operated prior to the merger? You need a history lesson....AA in Boston today, combined with US still is an empty shell of the original operations. You fail to factor in Eagle/USAir Express...

United goes nowhere - how many airlines can fly to London from Boston? (Capacity for namesake does not create profit - wouldn’t they be in the market already??)

The “MAX” is inconsequential at this point. Southwest has dropped more routes from Boston than any airline other than US/AA historically.

What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order.

Comparing BOS to LAX is an exercise in a.net futility.
 
Sydscott
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:49 am

VS4ever wrote:

AA, jury is out. 2 new routes a trend does not make. Sure they are the first moves they have made in a long time, but they have 18 gates and will need to continue to add because the average gate usage at BOS is increasing and their long term leases are coming up, they do have a use it or lose it clause in their deal. DL, UA, and B6 do too, but onl UA would have similar concerns.



It will be interesting to see what AA does in BOS to expand further in 2020 if anything. Over the last 12 months we've had announcements or commencements for:

BOS - LHR 1 daily
BOS - AUS 2 daily
BOS - RDU 5 daily
BOS - IND 2 daily
BOS - NAS / GCM / ILM / EYW all 1 weekly Saturday or seasonal services

Additionally you have the special event flying.

So quite a few darts being thrown in BOS by AA to see what sticks.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:13 am

You really said BOS - LHR is the biggest hole in the star alliance market, I’m guessing you’re not too familiar with star than.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:46 am

I don’t think the next economic slowdown will dent BOS as much as it might a city like Houston. There’s a lot of balance in the Boston area, whether you look at basic demographics (income levels, population density, nationalities) or businesses (education, pharma, finance, tech, etc.).

As for WN, I still am puzzled whether the move into BOS at the expense of MHT/PVD was a net positive or a net negative for them. Pounded by competition as they are at Logan, they can’t convince me that they’re financially better off at Logan.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
MIflyer12
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:02 pm

VS4ever wrote:
WN- all down to the Max, Massport gave them 5 gates, for WN that’s up to 55 departures a day, they are nowhere near that. So either Max flying is coming someday or WN also risk losing at least 1 of their 5.


So, DL can't average 10 turns a gate a day but WN can do 11? Sure, DL has some international widebodies but that's not going to be the bulk of the departures. They also have some 76-seat aircraft that can be turned quicker than a WN 737-700. Twenty gates give a lot more flexibility than five: integer constraints, baby.

Directly to the OP: I'm looking at O&D data. It's domestic, and while BOS has a lot of international travel LAX has a lot of international, too. BOS doesn't compare with LAX: it is scaled with DEN, ATL, EWR and SEA. It's barely half the size of LAX.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:53 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
BOS is similar to LAX in that it’s one of the largest and most fragmented markets in the country (I believe BOS is the 2nd largest after LA).
This thread is about BOS expansion, and the complexities associated with it:
.

BOS is no where near #2 in market sizes after LAX (~9th in the US I believe) Do you mean it's the second most fragmented?
 
airbazar
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:58 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You really said BOS - LHR is the biggest hole in the star alliance market, I’m guessing you’re not too familiar with star than.

I'm not sure what context he was using but def. something is off in that statement. Maybe he meant biggest TATL hole? Biggest N.American hole?

But, do we really need a second BOS thread? All of these topics have been discussed and continue to be discussed almost on a daily bases in the main Boston thread.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437899
 
ncflyer
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:20 pm

I second third triple airbazar, why is this a thread when there is already a wonderful and very active Boston thread going? I believe in fact it's the most contributed to thread on this board dedicated to a single airport. . . . at least it was in 2019.
 
cloud4000
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:30 pm

BOS needs more gates to accommodate more flights, perhaps even a new terminal and expand existing ones. I don't know if this possible or MASSPORT is even considering it. It would be preferable to build another airport, but I'm not going there.
Boston, USA
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:39 pm

ERAUMBA wrote:
B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats.

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.

AA has not grown beyond their 2000-2008 presence, in any way, shape or form.

Frontier/Spirit go nowhere - seasonal flying capturing seasonal passengers originating in-station is not a profit leader. A revenue leader for sure during those seasonal months, but expect nothing in terms of growth.

“Payback” from AA in the form of several additional frequencies that do not even reach the number of flights legacy AA operated prior to the merger? You need a history lesson....AA in Boston today, combined with US still is an empty shell of the original operations. You fail to factor in Eagle/USAir Express...

United goes nowhere - how many airlines can fly to London from Boston? (Capacity for namesake does not create profit - wouldn’t they be in the market already??)

The “MAX” is inconsequential at this point. Southwest has dropped more routes from Boston than any airline other than US/AA historically.

What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order.

Comparing BOS to LAX is an exercise in a.net futility.



A little negative in tone, but you are spot on in your assessment.

Good analysis
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:48 pm

cloud4000 wrote:
BOS needs more gates to accommodate more flights, perhaps even a new terminal and expand existing ones. I don't know if this possible or MASSPORT is even considering it. It would be preferable to build another airport, but I'm not going there.



they need a JFK-type master plan to demolish the maze of old and new (along with the roadway system) and come up with one or two centralized terminals

Too many piers, too many shapes and sizes, too many garages and roads all crammed into to tight of a space
 
flyby519
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:58 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
cloud4000 wrote:
BOS needs more gates to accommodate more flights, perhaps even a new terminal and expand existing ones. I don't know if this possible or MASSPORT is even considering it. It would be preferable to build another airport, but I'm not going there.



they need a JFK-type master plan to demolish the maze of old and new (along with the roadway system) and come up with one or two centralized terminals

Too many piers, too many shapes and sizes, too many garages and roads all crammed into to tight of a space


That problem extends far beyond the airport perimeter.
 
johhn14
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:09 pm

This discussion should be in the BOS thread already referenced...the same topics come up there.
 
jplatts
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
WN- all down to the Max, Massport gave them 5 gates, for WN that’s up to 55 departures a day, they are nowhere near that. So either Max flying is coming someday or WN also risk losing at least 1 of their 5.


So, DL can't average 10 turns a gate a day but WN can do 11? Sure, DL has some international widebodies but that's not going to be the bulk of the departures. They also have some 76-seat aircraft that can be turned quicker than a WN 737-700. Twenty gates give a lot more flexibility than five: integer constraints, baby.


One big difference between DL and WN at BOS is that DL is connecting some passengers onto transatlantic flights at BOS whereas WN is only carrying passengers going to or from BOS on its flights out of BOS.

I had previously mentioned WN re-adding BOS-PHX nonstop service as a possibility since WN had been able to fill BOS-PHX nonstop flights back when WN operated BOS-PHX nonstop service in 2011 and 2012. WN also has a FF base in Greater Phoenix to support the return of BOS-PHX nonstop service as WN has nonstop service out of PHX to destinations such as BUF, CLE, LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL that aren't served nonstop out of PHX on AA, DL, UA, or B6.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:23 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
WN- all down to the Max, Massport gave them 5 gates, for WN that’s up to 55 departures a day, they are nowhere near that. So either Max flying is coming someday or WN also risk losing at least 1 of their 5.


So, DL can't average 10 turns a gate a day but WN can do 11? Sure, DL has some international widebodies but that's not going to be the bulk of the departures. They also have some 76-seat aircraft that can be turned quicker than a WN 737-700. Twenty gates give a lot more flexibility than five: integer constraints, baby.

Directly to the OP: I'm looking at O&D data. It's domestic, and while BOS has a lot of international travel LAX has a lot of international, too. BOS doesn't compare with LAX: it is scaled with DEN, ATL, EWR and SEA. It's barely half the size of LAX.


I’m not comparing them in terms of their overall size- LAX is twice the size of BOS; I’m comparing them in terms of fragmentation- large markets that no single airline overwhelming owns.
 
PVD757
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:38 pm

With 3 very underutilized airports all approximately 1 hour in each direction (MHT, ORH, and PVD), why on earth would BOS be rebuilt to the tune of billions of dollars and years of construction disturbances? Yes, I’m biased but in the long run, these other airports are excellent for relieving the stress that BOS will see with the continued growth. BOS will and should always be the region’s primary gateway but there are other ways to move people in and out of the region without cramming everything into one airport.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:46 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
I don’t think the next economic slowdown will dent BOS as much as it might a city like Houston. There’s a lot of balance in the Boston area, whether you look at basic demographics (income levels, population density, nationalities) or businesses (education, pharma, finance, tech, etc.).


With oil plummeting and the oil industry on a downward path, you would expect Houston to do increasingly worse in the future.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:57 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
ERAUMBA wrote:
B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats.

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.

AA has not grown beyond their 2000-2008 presence, in any way, shape or form.

Frontier/Spirit go nowhere - seasonal flying capturing seasonal passengers originating in-station is not a profit leader. A revenue leader for sure during those seasonal months, but expect nothing in terms of growth.

“Payback” from AA in the form of several additional frequencies that do not even reach the number of flights legacy AA operated prior to the merger? You need a history lesson....AA in Boston today, combined with US still is an empty shell of the original operations. You fail to factor in Eagle/USAir Express...

United goes nowhere - how many airlines can fly to London from Boston? (Capacity for namesake does not create profit - wouldn’t they be in the market already??)

The “MAX” is inconsequential at this point. Southwest has dropped more routes from Boston than any airline other than US/AA historically.

What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order.

Comparing BOS to LAX is an exercise in a.net futility.



A little negative in tone, but you are spot on in your assessment.

Good analysis


Close, but NK aren't seasonal, they are year round for most of their routes.
Agreed on AA, until they show more, it's window dressing and nothing else.

UA, not going to happen, hub flying and that's it for them.

WN - don't be so sure, they need a presence and you might find a return to form at somepoint. Even Massport have stated previously they expect 55 departures a day. Again, I am sure their leases like some of the others are on a use it or lose it basis, they did build the extra 2 gates for them to move to B for a reason and it wasn't to have departures at the current levels, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered.

F9 - stuck in E, only way they expand is to take another AM gate, that's it, won't move too many needles for sure, along with G4 that have just gone the same way. A non-issue as you suggest.

DL - I don't know why people get so hung up on the term Hub.. if DL have flights coming in from one place to connect to another, it's a hub. no matter how many flights there are. Fight me about it if you want, it's NEVER going to be as big as JFK/ATL or DTW, but it's not designed to be, by DL's own admission, it's a reliever hub for JFK as they have no more frequencies to work with. End of Story.

B6 - so you are saying that an airline that is currently refitting the major part of its fleet with 12 extra seats per aircraft and only bringing on 200 seats A321neos at that level now, along with the 220's that are going to seat more than the 190's currently in use are going to and I quote "B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats", is frankly wrong. If you are conservative and say 170 departures a day in 2020, compared to an average of 150 in 2019 (tphuang has good numbers on this) and even if you assume (because only 50% of the fleet is re-fitted at this point and they won't all be done until the end of the year, that there is no uplift in average seats for either type. you are still looking at 3m+ additional seats in play. B6's network load average is around 83%, so roughly 2.5m to 2.7m pax, that equates to 6% growth on the 42.5m pax that Massport have noted for 2019 final. Total growth in 2019 was 3.9%.... I wouldn't say that is minimal in terms of seats or pax...


"What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order" - and we don't think that's going to happen everywhere else too? Come on...

Everyone who knows me, knows I am a BOS fan, I can't deny it, I want my home airport to succeed, but frankly whlie some of the statements made are partially true (AA/UA/F9 and G4), there are other things happening here in BOS that will continue the growth trajectory for now. If the Economic downturn comes... everyone will feel the pain not just BOS.

The last major downturn 2007-2009 cost BOS around 10% of it's traffic, which has since increased by 66% from that number. So even with a crash of 20% (double what happened in what many people believe was one of the worst downturns ever) would be about 8.5m less and still be 33% above 2009. So BOS will be fine and it won't need a draw down of every single route to do it. Some will go, no question, plenty of thin routes for the taking, but everything? nope.. sorry, i don't buy that.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
ethernal
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
WN- all down to the Max, Massport gave them 5 gates, for WN that’s up to 55 departures a day, they are nowhere near that. So either Max flying is coming someday or WN also risk losing at least 1 of their 5.


So, DL can't average 10 turns a gate a day but WN can do 11? Sure, DL has some international widebodies but that's not going to be the bulk of the departures. They also have some 76-seat aircraft that can be turned quicker than a WN 737-700. Twenty gates give a lot more flexibility than five: integer constraints, baby.


Agree that more gates gives more flexibility.. but let's be honest. Delta's turns suck. Their boarding process is designed to be as slow as possible (it's basically front-to-back with small blocks - F, C+, Preferred, Regular Coach). Southwest averages turn times of 42 minutes (from a scheduling perspective), and they can go tighter at stations where they have to. Delta's average turn time for a 737-sized airplane is around an hour.

I could easily see Southwest doing 11 if Delta can do 9.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:21 pm

There is an increasing amount of "fat" going into the next downturn though. BOS-PHL at around 30x daily flights, RDU at around 20x, BWI at 25x, AUS at 9x over 4 airlines, even BOS-BUF has seat capacity at near what BOS-BWI had 10-15 years ago.

Take away some of that "fat" just from those routes listed (35 flights) comes out to over 3 million passengers per year and each of those cities would arguable still be very well served. Throw in every other possible city pair plus connecting passengers and I would estimate the size of the"fat" to be around 6 million passengers.

The one key wildcard is how much of the connecting traffic is being pushed to BOS because the NYC airports are full, thats an artificial market influencing factor that can work to BOS's advantage.
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catiii
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:50 pm

ERAUMBA wrote:

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.



To that end, and this is a question for the board that I don't know the answer to: 53% of DL's flying (flights not ASMs) at BOS is regional flying. Are there any "hubs" where the majority of flying is not mainline at DL?
 
Sightseer
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:04 pm

catiii wrote:
53% of DL's flying (flights not ASMs) at BOS is regional flying. Are there any "hubs" where the majority of flying is not mainline at DL?

This is not unheard of for US3 hubs, actually. See this thread and the ones linked in it for AA and UA. viewtopic.php?t=1420613
 
umichman
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:17 pm

catiii wrote:
ERAUMBA wrote:

Delta’s “HUB” is a hub in name only. In the old days, Northwest would call this a “gateway”. It is not JFK/DTW/ATL.



To that end, and this is a question for the board that I don't know the answer to: 53% of DL's flying (flights not ASMs) at BOS is regional flying. Are there any "hubs" where the majority of flying is not mainline at DL?


DTW DL split was about 53.8% regional flights vs. 46.2% mainline in November. That an improvement from last November, when it was 57.7% vs. 42.3%.
 
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:30 pm

Seems a lot of hackles were raised by comparing BOS to LA. Maybe we should stick to comparing the number of sports championship wins?

Regardless of the points of comparison, BOS is growing like crazy since its nadir shortly after all the airline bankruptcies and consolidations of the late 00s.

Personally I hope it grows to the point it grows to the point it overflows and makes MHT a bit more attractive to new entrants, but I think that's too much to ask for.
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:31 pm

Dupe.
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 379
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Re: BOS Cluster **Mess**

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:09 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Close, but NK aren't seasonal, they are year round for most of their routes.
Agreed on AA, until they show more, it's window dressing and nothing else.

UA, not going to happen, hub flying and that's it for them.

WN - don't be so sure, they need a presence and you might find a return to form at somepoint. Even Massport have stated previously they expect 55 departures a day. Again, I am sure their leases like some of the others are on a use it or lose it basis, they did build the extra 2 gates for them to move to B for a reason and it wasn't to have departures at the current levels, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered.

F9 - stuck in E, only way they expand is to take another AM gate, that's it, won't move too many needles for sure, along with G4 that have just gone the same way. A non-issue as you suggest.

DL - I don't know why people get so hung up on the term Hub.. if DL have flights coming in from one place to connect to another, it's a hub. no matter how many flights there are. Fight me about it if you want, it's NEVER going to be as big as JFK/ATL or DTW, but it's not designed to be, by DL's own admission, it's a reliever hub for JFK as they have no more frequencies to work with. End of Story.

B6 - so you are saying that an airline that is currently refitting the major part of its fleet with 12 extra seats per aircraft and only bringing on 200 seats A321neos at that level now, along with the 220's that are going to seat more than the 190's currently in use are going to and I quote "B6 Upgauges are minimal in terms of seats", is frankly wrong. If you are conservative and say 170 departures a day in 2020, compared to an average of 150 in 2019 (tphuang has good numbers on this) and even if you assume (because only 50% of the fleet is re-fitted at this point and they won't all be done until the end of the year, that there is no uplift in average seats for either type. you are still looking at 3m+ additional seats in play. B6's network load average is around 83%, so roughly 2.5m to 2.7m pax, that equates to 6% growth on the 42.5m pax that Massport have noted for 2019 final. Total growth in 2019 was 3.9%.... I wouldn't say that is minimal in terms of seats or pax...


"What can you expect from BOS? A drawdown of every route ex-JetBlue in the next economic downturn, which comes in short order" - and we don't think that's going to happen everywhere else too? Come on...

Everyone who knows me, knows I am a BOS fan, I can't deny it, I want my home airport to succeed, but frankly whlie some of the statements made are partially true (AA/UA/F9 and G4), there are other things happening here in BOS that will continue the growth trajectory for now. If the Economic downturn comes... everyone will feel the pain not just BOS.

The last major downturn 2007-2009 cost BOS around 10% of it's traffic, which has since increased by 66% from that number. So even with a crash of 20% (double what happened in what many people believe was one of the worst downturns ever) would be about 8.5m less and still be 33% above 2009. So BOS will be fine and it won't need a draw down of every single route to do it. Some will go, no question, plenty of thin routes for the taking, but everything? nope.. sorry, i don't buy that.

I agree with most of what you say on this. It appears B6 is positioned for a sizable capacity increase at BOS as the fleet upgrades. Whether or not that's a good thing in a downturn is yet to be seen. Shifting away from smaller aircraft may present some challenges on more marginal routes. They may need to reduce frequency using larger aircraft to maintain yields.

What DL establishing a hub at BOS means to me is that they will have enough flights to make connections practical and expected beyond focusing on O&D per flight. I think DL is moving in to slow B6 down and put some economic hurt in strategic areas. DL also wants to be in position to take advantage if B6 stumbles. AA, while not stating they want a hub, is also sending a similar message to B6 with their recent adds.

Don't count on much from UA. They just don't seem too invested in New England although they have been toying with BTV and PWM recently.

I think WN will keep 5 gates under the pseudo-promise of 55 daily flights. But I don't think 55 daily flights from WN is realistic at this point for three reasons;
1. BOS is congested enough that quick turns that work at other stations can't be relied on at BOS.
2. With the exception of a couple of routes, WN is struggling at BOS and it's not turning into DEN part 2. It's more like PHL part 2. Come in with great promise, and then shrink down to selective O&D routes. BOS is important to WN for out of town FF's, but they have struggled to develop their own base.
3. The WN model has changed and it's not the LCC that it once was. There are ULCCs at BOS and the major's are fare matching them or beating them with nonstops, frequencies, and/or comfort/perks.

F9 seems to be everywhere lately. NK seems to be attacking large airports and WN routes. If they play their card right at BOS, their growth will only be limited by gate space. People seem willing to pay $50 to check a bag if they get a $29 fare.
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
Personally I hope it grows to the point it grows to the point it overflows and makes MHT a bit more attractive to new entrants, but I think that's too much to ask for.

Pragmatically it shouldn’t be too much to ask for. As a traveler who took dozens of full UA 757 flights into and out of MHT, it’s not a station that has to ‘prove itself’ to anyone. But back to Boston: water on three sides and dense neighborhoods on the other mean that it becomes a game of Tetris. I don’t know what the percentage distribution is, but 100% of the travelers aren’t coming from ‘Boston’ or going to ‘Boston.’ Technically, those of us in southern NH or other places not called ‘Boston’ are driving the accelerating growth at Logan. The assets and infrastructure at MHT and PVD and perfect siphons for the needs of ‘Boston’ at some point in the future.
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Revelation
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:44 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
Technically, those of us in southern NH or other places not called ‘Boston’ are driving the accelerating growth at Logan. The assets and infrastructure at MHT and PVD and perfect siphons for the needs of ‘Boston’ at some point in the future.

BOS has the following things working in its favor: (a) competition driving down prices (b) economy of scale allowing for many destinations and incremental up-gauging of aircraft as needed (c) more resilience due to multiple carriers on many routes (d) cultural trends favoring urbanization over suburban growth. As you say the main issue in the future of BOS is to manage both airside and landside growth, but with all the other trends working in its favor it's hard to see us going back to the status quo of the 90s/00s.
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RL757PVD
Posts: 3197
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:46 pm

Not sure how multiple carriers at money losing fares translates into resilience. It’s not going to revert to historical ways or levels but the bubble is growing in size.
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ScottB
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:49 pm

ChrisNH38 wrote:
As for WN, I still am puzzled whether the move into BOS at the expense of MHT/PVD was a net positive or a net negative for them. Pounded by competition as they are at Logan, they can’t convince me that they’re financially better off at Logan.


I don't think they really had a choice once JetBlue got access to a bunch of gates in Boston and the Big Dig was successfully completed. Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, WN was able to undercut high legacy carrier fares at BOS and passengers in the cities and towns outside 128 wanted to avoid horrible traffic on the way to/from Logan. Traffic, while not great, is a lot better than it used to be and B6 is more competitive on fares than the legacies. Uber and Lyft have also likely tipped the balance in favor of BOS with parking getting pricier at PVD & MHT.
 
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Revelation
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Re: BOS airline growth

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:34 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Not sure how multiple carriers at money losing fares translates into resilience. It’s not going to revert to historical ways or levels but the bubble is growing in size.

I was speaking from the passenger's point of view. I'm not really a frequent flier, but have ended up being stuck at MHT when a plane went tech, and there was zero resilience. In one case I was impacted by, they fixed the plane by driving up spare parts and mechanics from BOS! :-)

Any data to support for the money losing claim?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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ChrisNH38
Posts: 263
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: BOS airline growth

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
I'm not really a frequent flier, but have ended up being stuck at MHT when a plane went tech, and there was zero resilience. In one case I was impacted by, they fixed the plane by driving up spare parts and mechanics from BOS! :-)


It can happen in reverse, too. I've been stuck sleeping on benches at ORD and ATL when my flights to MHT went sideways. And in the case of ATL, the 'next' flight was the next NIGHT. So you're right...there needs to be elasticity in the schedules in case your booked ticket needs re-routing. And then there's this: all those 'other' flights you might consider once you're stuck might themselves be full. It's not as though planes are flying around half-empty to accommodate you. I will not and cannot support an airline whose MHT schedules are so thin that I'm at big risk on the outbound or inbound legs. I literally live ON THE BORDER of Massachusetts (my property line goes to the border), so the 'pain' of dealing with Logan isn't as bad for me as it is for others.
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