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chunhimlai
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Posts: 601
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Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:42 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/worl ... ravel.html

Chinese authorities plan to close off Wuhan — a city of more than 11 million people and the epicenter of a mysterious, pneumonia-like virus that has already spread halfway around the world — canceling planes and trains leaving the city beginning Thursday, and suspending buses, subways and ferries within it.

The announcement, shared on Chinese state media, was a significant escalation from just the day before, when authorities had urged people not to travel to or from the central Chinese city but had stopped short of imposing an official quarantine. The new virus, which first emerged at the end of December, has killed at least 17 people and sickened more than 400.

The authorities said that the measures, which would take effect at 10 a.m., were needed to “effectively cut off the transmission of the virus, resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic, and ensure the safety and health of the people.”

The transportation shut-off — announced soon after 2 a.m., just hours before it was to take effect — could upend the travel plans of millions of Chinese citizens, who travel in huge numbers during the Lunar New Year holiday. The government urged residents not to leave the city, a major transportation hub, unless they had an urgent reason to do so.

The Lunar New Year in China is the world’s largest annual migration of people, with hundreds of millions of travelers fanning out across the country and the world, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent on hotels, restaurants and shopping.

Now, with a mysterious new pneumonia-like coronavirus, the mass migration is also an epidemiologist’s nightmare.

The authorities are scrambling to control the virus, which has spread around the region, even reaching North America. Officials are stepping up screening at transportation hubs. The World Health Organization is expected to hold a meeting on Wednesday to discuss whether to declare the outbreak an international health emergency, which would escalate the global response.

Before the virus emerged, the government had estimated that Chinese travelers would make three billion trips over the holiday period, also known as the Spring Festival. But on Wednesday, a senior health official delivered a stark warning: The tide of travel during the holiday would make it more difficult to contain the outbreak. Li Bin, a deputy head of China’s health commission, also said that the virus could mutate and spread more easily.
 
muralir
Posts: 127
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DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:48 pm

In response to the escalating coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan, China, the CDC has setup health screening stations at LAX, SFO, JFK, ORD, and ATL. They have directed the DoT to "funnel" all passengers from Wuhan to these 5 airports including connecting passengers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plans-redirect-plane-passengers-screened-for-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-1

I'd love to get A.net's thoughts on how this funneling process will work. Given how many possible ways a passenger can get from Wuhan to almost any US airport, how will they manage? And will it take just one passenger from Wuhan to reroute an entire flight? For example, if one passenger from Wuhan gets to HKG and takes CX to BOS, will they really divert the *entire* flight to JFK? Does this mean every airline will now have to implement pre-screening at the origin airport to redirect Wuhan pax to a different flight going into one of the 5 approved airports?

WUH has lots of air connectivity (including a direct flight to CDG). Does this mean every one of those airlines needs to start screening and re-routing their wuhan passengers or else risk an entire flight getting diverted?

My take:
This will become an operational mess, and likely won't improve public health either. One thing we know from quarantines is that the minute you declare a quarantine, people who would have never moved start fleeing to escape the quarantine, often *increasing* the number of people traveling to other areas. In this situation, I suspect a lot of people will try to avoid being labeled WUH-origin, maybe by taking a train to another city and catching a flight there (which adds another point of travel to the transmission vectors for the disease), or maybe buying separate tickets instead of a connection. In the latter case, to make sure they'll make it, they might add additional layover time for picking up and re-checking their bags, which would increase the amount of time they spend in the transit airport, possibly spreading the disease there.

I understand that implement screening protocols in every airport is difficult. But this doesn't seem like it'll help do much more than encourage WUH-originating passengers to "go underground" by hiding the fact that they're from Wuhan, which will ultimately make disease tracking efforts more difficult.
 
chicawgo
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:53 pm

I assume they're going to deny the individual traveler's ticket and require it be changed to one of the 5 airports. Not divert entire flights.
 
muralir
Posts: 127
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:59 pm

chicawgo wrote:
I assume they're going to deny the individual traveler's ticket and require it be changed to one of the 5 airports. Not divert entire flights.

I guess the assumption is that any airline that has an international flight to a different US city also has a flight into at least one of these airports, so they should be able to reroute that passenger to one of their own flights into one of the screening airports.

That's a reasonable assumption. I agree with you. I highly doubt that e.g. CX will risk their entire flight to BOS getting rerouted vs just forcibly rerouting the Wuhan originating passenger onto their JFK flight. But the issue is from the WUH passenger side: does this make it more likely that he tries to figure out a way to hide his WUH origin, rather than deal with being re-routed to JFK and then figuring out how to get to BOS from there?

For example, if I were a WUH passenger trying to get to BOS, it might be more convenient for me to take a train to Beijing, and then go PEK-HKG-BOS, rather than WUH-HKG-JFK, then figure out how to get to BOS in a foreign country.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:02 pm

Easier solution: suspend ticket sales from WUH.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:05 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Easier solution: suspend ticket sales from WUH.


The Chinese government do something more straightforward: suspend all flight from/to WUH
Last edited by chunhimlai on Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
sw733
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:09 pm

I get that they may be trying to do the best that they can, but there are so many ways around this (not saying intentionally) that it may be tricky.

For example, what if I buy a one-way ticket from Wuhan to, say, Shanghai and then the next day fly PVG-DFW...would the US government have any good way of knowing I did WUH-PVG/SHA the day before?

Additionally, by taking one or several Wuhan-originating passengers and putting them on, say, HKG-LAX that may or may not have had any Wuhan-originating passengers on it, do you risk infecting a new group of people that otherwise may not have been infected?

Again, there's no perfect solution to this aside from shutting down everything in/out of Wuhan (which even then wouldn't be perfect), but still things that popped in my head.
 
muralir
Posts: 127
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:15 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Easier solution: suspend ticket sales from WUH.


The Chinese government do something more straightforward: Close WUH


Yikes! It appears you're correct. Latest news is that China is quarantining the entire city:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:26 pm

Looks like NH and JL will be retiring the 767's early. :(
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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lesfalls
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:33 pm

Moscow, Japan and South Korea have also recently increased their checks as the U.S and Australia previously have.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/21/cor ... n-outbreak

A health expert was saying though that it's much more about show then actually solving the problem when it comes to issuing these health checks. Is he right?

As of now London, Paris and Rome are the only cities with direct connections to Wuhan.
Lufthansa: Einfach ein bisschen besser.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:36 pm

The DOT may be working with the Centers for Disease Control and the relevant airports to set up screening and quarantine facilities at LAX, SFO, JFK, ORD, and ATL. There are too many U.S. international airports to place facilities everywhere. It's not Belgium we're talking about.
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
catiii
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:41 pm

muralir wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Easier solution: suspend ticket sales from WUH.


The Chinese government do something more straightforward: Close WUH


Yikes! It appears you're correct. Latest news is that China is quarantining the entire city:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html


Which is something when you consider that the metro area population for Wuhan is 19M people.
 
bennett123
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:44 pm

I can’t help thinking this virus is a bigger problem than we are being led to believe.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:20 pm

I hear they are quarantine the city.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:29 pm

Travel ban on Wuhan pax. No way we're gonna have a repeat of the 2003 SARS crisis.
Delta Gold Medallion
 
asuflyer
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:35 pm

CZ8419 is currently enroute to JFK due at 21:30 local time.
 
chicawgo
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:35 pm

muralir wrote:
chicawgo wrote:
I assume they're going to deny the individual traveler's ticket and require it be changed to one of the 5 airports. Not divert entire flights.

I guess the assumption is that any airline that has an international flight to a different US city also has a flight into at least one of these airports, so they should be able to reroute that passenger to one of their own flights into one of the screening airports.

That's a reasonable assumption. I agree with you. I highly doubt that e.g. CX will risk their entire flight to BOS getting rerouted vs just forcibly rerouting the Wuhan originating passenger onto their JFK flight. But the issue is from the WUH passenger side: does this make it more likely that he tries to figure out a way to hide his WUH origin, rather than deal with being re-routed to JFK and then figuring out how to get to BOS from there?

For example, if I were a WUH passenger trying to get to BOS, it might be more convenient for me to take a train to Beijing, and then go PEK-HKG-BOS, rather than WUH-HKG-JFK, then figure out how to get to BOS in a foreign country.


Agreed there would be many ways to get around it. But it would take effort. Anyone that is from the area would likely have an address on their ID. And I suppose the govt could also flag anyone that listed travel there. There are many ways to get information through technology.
 
ScottB
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:56 pm

muralir wrote:
I'd love to get A.net's thoughts on how this funneling process will work. Given how many possible ways a passenger can get from Wuhan to almost any US airport, how will they manage? And will it take just one passenger from Wuhan to reroute an entire flight? For example, if one passenger from Wuhan gets to HKG and takes CX to BOS, will they really divert the *entire* flight to JFK? Does this mean every airline will now have to implement pre-screening at the origin airport to redirect Wuhan pax to a different flight going into one of the 5 approved airports?


The way this would work is pretty simple. DOT would direct all carriers operating international flights to the U.S. to flag any passenger itinerary originating at WUH. These carriers would be required to reroute those passengers through any of LAX/SFO/JFK/ORD/ATL as their point of entry, just as if they had to do so due to IRROPS. So in the case of your hypothetical CX passenger, they'd probably be rebooked to JFK, with a leg on AA to BOS.

Airlines are required to transmit passenger manifests to U.S. CBP before departure and the feds absolutely could require an aircraft to divert or turn back if the airline didn't comply with this requirement.

As things stand now, with China putting a quarantine in place on Wuhan, this rule seems somewhat moot.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:33 pm

Quarantine starts 10am Thursday:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN1ZL07C

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
Kikko19
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:50 pm

Only one solution. Suspend all flights from infected areas. The microclima of the plane is perfect to circulate the virus. Better act early than too late. Let's see how quickly the authorities will understand the situation.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:56 pm

I honestly doubt this can only be limited to WUH. Other cities in China are reporting cases. I hope they move all China flights to those airports for screening.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
muralir
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Re: DoT to restrict Wuhan originating pax to 5 US airports

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:03 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I honestly doubt this can only be limited to WUH. Other cities in China are reporting cases. I hope they move all China flights to those airports for screening.


One interesting question: how many direct flights to China are there that don't originate in those airports? I'm guessing not many. So most flights already go through those gateway airports.
But that said, the problem isn't limited to direct flights. The CDC guidelines are to re-route connecting passengers as well. If you were to re-route connecting passengers from *all* of China, that would be a tremendous number of passengers from almost every single major airport / airline in the world. That would be a massive mess...
 
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2nd2none
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:11 pm

Air travel in China is down 41,6% the first day of the Lunar New Year, due to the Corona Virus, that is massive: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/how-cor ... onomy.html
 
Prost
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:45 pm

I think part of the issue is the Chinese citizens are distrustful of government information in times of turmoil.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:39 am

Any info about other airports closed?
 
jayspilot
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SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm

It appears that the inbound to China (SFO-PEK/PVG) loads are close single digit on UA where you can view the seats on the app. I thought there was a glitch but the outbound flights are 95%+ full. I wonder if we will see a temporary suspension of flights with this virus outbreak ongoing??
 
Pi7472000
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:14 pm

Does not look very full out of DTW to China as well on Delta today.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:25 pm

Doubtful - the flights back to the US are full! They will likely eat the losses for the time being ... will depend on how long this coronavirus issue drags on.
 
Sightseer
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:43 pm

Another factor to consider is the Chinese/Lunar New Year; there's probably not much business being conducted right now, and anyone traveling for the festivities is most likely already at their destination.
 
Ishrion
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:03 pm

AA temporarily cut DFW-PEK for a few weeks for this reason.
 
panam330
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:56 pm

Ishrion wrote:
AA temporarily cut DFW-PEK for a few weeks for this reason.

I wonder if the Apple (or any other) corporate contract disallows for selective cancelations (at least to PVG).
 
BestWestern
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:59 pm

China has suspended all tour groups from China, so a huge drop in loads is expected.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:17 pm

BestWestern wrote:
China has suspended all tour groups from China, so a huge drop in loads is expected.


While this has an effect on loads, it's not as big as people make it out to be, especially to/from "Tier 1" city like PEK and PVG. Chinese tourists does NOT have to follow tour group to go to places, even though many do (No number for worldwide, but I read news in Japan 2 days ago and they mentioned that it's something like 20-30% of all inbound Chinese tourists to Japan).

Plus this still doesn't explain why the INBOUND (i.e. SFO->PEK/PVG) are almost empty, but OUTBOUND (i.e. PEK/PVG->SFO) is 95% full.
 
babastud
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:20 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
China has suspended all tour groups from China, so a huge drop in loads is expected.


While this has an effect on loads, it's not as big as people make it out to be, especially to/from "Tier 1" city like PEK and PVG. Chinese tourists does NOT have to follow tour group to go to places, even though many do (No number for worldwide, but I read news in Japan 2 days ago and they mentioned that it's something like 20-30% of all inbound Chinese tourists to Japan).

Plus this still doesn't explain why the INBOUND (i.e. SFO->PEK/PVG) are almost empty, but OUTBOUND (i.e. PEK/PVG->SFO) is 95% full.



Reality Check Posters!! The reason the outbound to China are not full is that people do not want to go and get stuck in China during a Pandemic that is killing people, simple!! The outbound is Chinese trying to escape China before their cities are quarantined also and they cant leave and figure they have a better chance of surviving by coming to the USA.

Frankly all flights to and from China should have stopped several days ago. The reports from those on the ground are much much more severe then the MSM is portraying. Stay safe flyers God speed!
 
asuflyer
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:24 pm

The US government has today now issued a travel advisory to reconsider non-essential travel to China. This will have an effect on loads as well.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... isory.html
 
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LAXintl
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:34 pm

Loads are uneven already including some day of week cancellation due to CNY. Every year traffic drops to/from U.S. during CNY period.

The more recent health scare will likely hurt demand moving forward, however it comes secondary to demand changes due to CNY which we are seeing currently.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
TYWoolman
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:36 pm

babastud wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
China has suspended all tour groups from China, so a huge drop in loads is expected.


While this has an effect on loads, it's not as big as people make it out to be, especially to/from "Tier 1" city like PEK and PVG. Chinese tourists does NOT have to follow tour group to go to places, even though many do (No number for worldwide, but I read news in Japan 2 days ago and they mentioned that it's something like 20-30% of all inbound Chinese tourists to Japan).

Plus this still doesn't explain why the INBOUND (i.e. SFO->PEK/PVG) are almost empty, but OUTBOUND (i.e. PEK/PVG->SFO) is 95% full.



Reality Check Posters!! The reason the outbound to China are not full is that people do not want to go and get stuck in China during a Pandemic that is killing people, simple!! The outbound is Chinese trying to escape China before their cities are quarantined also and they cant leave and figure they have a better chance of surviving by coming to the USA.

Frankly all flights to and from China should have stopped several days ago. The reports from those on the ground are much much more severe then the MSM is portraying. Stay safe flyers God speed!
 
TYWoolman
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:41 pm

At what point will the airlines stop their service to China? Answer: When their employees are in a lawsuit claiming their airline knew of the risk but continued to fly to China anyway. I am being a little over-the-top in my example, but this is definately not fear mongering on my part. There is a serious issue going on in China. The airlines need to do their part and do all they can to prevent continued infection, first for their employees.
 
cynlb
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:55 pm

Flight leaving center of coronavirus outbreak in China bound for ONT
https://www.dailybulletin.com/2020/01/2 ... s-say/amp/
 
babastud
Posts: 273
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:02 am

TYWoolman wrote:
At what point will the airlines stop their service to China? Answer: When their employees are in a lawsuit claiming their airline knew of the risk but continued to fly to China anyway. I am being a little over-the-top in my example, but this is definately not fear mongering on my part. There is a serious issue going on in China. The airlines need to do their part and do all they can to prevent continued infection, first for their employees.


Agree 100%.
 
AngMoh
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:05 am

Sightseer wrote:
Another factor to consider is the Chinese/Lunar New Year; there's probably not much business being conducted right now, and anyone traveling for the festivities is most likely already at their destination.


This is most likely the main reason. All of China (and that is really everyone) has leave for 10 days. Every Chinese planning to go home would have reached by last Friday (eve of Chinese New Year is like American Thanksgiving and was last Friday). For foreigners going to China right now makes no sense at all because you end up in the biggest annual migration on the planet and all flights, trains, hotels and whatever else is booked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunyun

I had it to a lesser extend last week when my A380 had a load factor of around 40% going to London on Monday and on the way back (Wednesday last flight of evening) it was packed with no empty seats. And we have only a long weekend for CNY.

Next week traffic should recover and then you can see the effects of the virus outbreak.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739/ER 742 743 744/M 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
alaskan9974
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Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:14 am

I see stories of France, Germany, USA and others planning Evacuation flights for trapped personnel and citizens in Wuhan.

Who is operating these flights, they are still considered Civil even though they are government charters correct?

The USA evac flight is scheduled to stop in Anchorage to refuel before continuing to Ontario, California. Assuming passengers will stay onboard?

Any special decontamination needed?

Japan had planned for three flights and abruptly cancelled them after discussions with China, Thailand reportedly has 66 students stuck in Wuhan they are attempting to repatriate.

India had plans to charter a 747 for their citizens, but with Japan and now Thailand not able to fly in, does this risk their flight as well?
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3480
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:53 am

babastud wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
China has suspended all tour groups from China, so a huge drop in loads is expected.


While this has an effect on loads, it's not as big as people make it out to be, especially to/from "Tier 1" city like PEK and PVG. Chinese tourists does NOT have to follow tour group to go to places, even though many do (No number for worldwide, but I read news in Japan 2 days ago and they mentioned that it's something like 20-30% of all inbound Chinese tourists to Japan).

Plus this still doesn't explain why the INBOUND (i.e. SFO->PEK/PVG) are almost empty, but OUTBOUND (i.e. PEK/PVG->SFO) is 95% full.



Reality Check Posters!! The reason the outbound to China are not full is that people do not want to go and get stuck in China during a Pandemic that is killing people, simple!! The outbound is Chinese trying to escape China before their cities are quarantined also and they cant leave and figure they have a better chance of surviving by coming to the USA.

Frankly all flights to and from China should have stopped several days ago. The reports from those on the ground are much much more severe then the MSM is portraying. Stay safe flyers God speed!

Reality check poster, China is basically shut down for the next two weeks due to the Lunar New Year. You should see the drop in cargo from China for these two weeks, it's massive. You can go with the fear, but logic says otherwise.

The illness doesn't help, but it certainly isn't the primary driver of the drop.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:11 am

ANA is flying two domestic-configured 767-300ERs (JA607A and JA614A) today, one flight for each.

Michael
 
babastud
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:13 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
babastud wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

While this has an effect on loads, it's not as big as people make it out to be, especially to/from "Tier 1" city like PEK and PVG. Chinese tourists does NOT have to follow tour group to go to places, even though many do (No number for worldwide, but I read news in Japan 2 days ago and they mentioned that it's something like 20-30% of all inbound Chinese tourists to Japan).

Plus this still doesn't explain why the INBOUND (i.e. SFO->PEK/PVG) are almost empty, but OUTBOUND (i.e. PEK/PVG->SFO) is 95% full.



Reality Check Posters!! The reason the outbound to China are not full is that people do not want to go and get stuck in China during a Pandemic that is killing people, simple!! The outbound is Chinese trying to escape China before their cities are quarantined also and they cant leave and figure they have a better chance of surviving by coming to the USA.

Frankly all flights to and from China should have stopped several days ago. The reports from those on the ground are much much more severe then the MSM is portraying. Stay safe flyers God speed!

Reality check poster, China is basically shut down for the next two weeks due to the Lunar New Year. You should see the drop in cargo from China for these two weeks, it's massive. You can go with the fear, but logic says otherwise.

The illness doesn't help, but it certainly isn't the primary driver of the drop.


The question was why are the loads so bad SFO going to China? as in single digits bad! not wither Cargo or trade fluctuates drops or rises during seasonal or holiday times of the year. Of course their is a drop with the new year, but why are so fewer passengers getting on that plane in SFO. The issue is not Fear JetBLue, it's reality. The reality is the US govt just issued a serious recommendation not to fly to China! Moreover, anyone who knows anything about the CCP know the numbers are not legit and you mine as well add a zero behind every figure they quote. If you take there figures as is you'll find they are constructing 100k bed "hospitals" just in Hubei alone. They are expecting big numbers will be effected as in 100k + or way way more.
Listen you can call fear all you want, but I happen to survive the H1N1 in 2009 and was quarantined in a Central American(country unnamed) military hospital for a week on IV and respirator and then several weeks in a private facility. Even today I suffer long term effects from that Pneumonia which almost did me in and was serious stuff.
Heck why don't you go to Beijing for a week and report back to us how's it going....Maybe you set the record straight.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:25 am

babastud wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
babastud wrote:


Reality Check Posters!! The reason the outbound to China are not full is that people do not want to go and get stuck in China during a Pandemic that is killing people, simple!! The outbound is Chinese trying to escape China before their cities are quarantined also and they cant leave and figure they have a better chance of surviving by coming to the USA.

Frankly all flights to and from China should have stopped several days ago. The reports from those on the ground are much much more severe then the MSM is portraying. Stay safe flyers God speed!

Reality check poster, China is basically shut down for the next two weeks due to the Lunar New Year. You should see the drop in cargo from China for these two weeks, it's massive. You can go with the fear, but logic says otherwise.

The illness doesn't help, but it certainly isn't the primary driver of the drop.


The question was why are the loads so bad SFO going to China? as in single digits bad! not wither Cargo or trade fluctuates drops or rises during seasonal or holiday times of the year. Of course their is a drop with the new year, but why are so fewer passengers getting on that plane in SFO. The issue is not Fear JetBLue, it's reality. The reality is the US govt just issued a serious recommendation not to fly to China! Moreover, anyone who knows anything about the CCP know the numbers are not legit and you mine as well add a zero behind every figure they quote. If you take there figures as is you'll find they are constructing 100k bed "hospitals" just in Hubei alone. They are expecting big numbers will be effected as in 100k + or way way more.
Listen you can call fear all you want, but I happen to survive the H1N1 in 2009 and was quarantined in a Central American(country unnamed) military hospital for a week on IV and respirator and then several weeks in a private facility. Even today I suffer long term effects from that Pneumonia which almost did me in and was serious stuff.
Heck why don't you go to Beijing for a week and report back to us how's it going....Maybe you set the record straight.


Correct. And be well. This is serious. The U.S. says reconsider your trip to China (Level 3 out of 4). That means don't go to China. This implies people from China need to stay in China, but good luck with that. So that means the U.S. gov'ts next step should be literally to stop people entering the U.S. from China mainland (not necessarily just Chinese).
Last edited by TYWoolman on Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 1997
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:27 am

Would not be surprised to see any or all the US3 temporarily suspend ALL of their flights to China, including HKG for 14-30 days or more if the situation gets worse.
 
User avatar
jaybird
Posts: 407
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2001 4:23 am

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:30 am

The situation is going to get worse before it gets better. Google SARS .. and SARS affect on the airline industry. It was not pretty.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 903
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:47 am

I really do not think air service between the U.S. will stop. It did not stop during SARS, which was much worse.
 
Aceskywalker
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:53 am

Anyone know what's the reg on that American evac plane? No N registered planes leaving/departing WUH or on the ground per FR24

According to another thread on this subject ANA is operating JA607A and JA614A on behalf of Japan's evac flights.
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