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zakuivcustom
Posts: 3525
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:55 am

Ziyulu wrote:
I really do not think air service between the U.S. will stop. It did not stop during SARS, which was much worse.


The big difference between SARS and the current nCoV is that it's a LOT easier to screen for patient with SARS, as symptoms onset are a lot quicker with the immune system response. In another word, the existing temperature screening at airports actually work. This time around, somebody can literally carry the virus around for up to 2 weeks without getting sick, then suddenly get very, very sick.

Regarding air service - it'll only stop if (and it's a big IF) China decide to lock down the country and ban any Chinese nationals from leaving the country. Then you'll see a suspension in flights. So far China is only doing that to people living in Hubei AFAIK.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 am

Goodbye to all of the 757's and 767's.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 935
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:07 am

Does anyone know which airline is doing the chartered flight? And what type of plane?
 
tootallsd
Posts: 527
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:02 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:15 am

I lived in China during SARs and on the ground in Shanghai it really wasn't scary. Within days, every public location and office had gel hand cleanser dispensers. Everywhere. My biggest fear was on arrival in China, all planes were initially in quarantine until a visit from the health inspectors. They would come on with infrared temperature detectors. Some planeloads of passengers were quarantined for an extended period of time.
 
mcogator
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Re: Wuhan airport close due to virus outbreak

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:45 am

Aceskywalker wrote:
Anyone know what's the reg on that American evac plane? No N registered planes leaving/departing WUH or on the ground per FR24

According to another thread on this subject ANA is operating JA607A and JA614A on behalf of Japan's evac flights.

This article says the flight is "this week", not today.

https://abc7.com/health/jet-with-us-wor ... o/5883495/
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:46 am

This isn’t SARS. Total SARS cases ended up around 9000 globally. The nCoV virus is up to 4200 cases and it hasn’t even really gotten going yet unfortunately.

Let’s hope all airlines flying in and out of China make responsible decisions in coordination with their government’s health agencies.
 
alaskan9974
Posts: 142
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:06 pm

Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:53 am

Thank you.

I don’t see them listed yet in flight aware.

Glad they were able to make arrangements. I see NK and Mongolia have shut their borders to China. From rumblings it looks like HK and the Philippines among other countries are under pressure to do the same.

Hard to trust the numbers from China, their actions do not match the narrative.
 
alaskan9974
Posts: 142
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:06 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:56 am

izbtmnhd wrote:
This isn’t SARS. Total SARS cases ended up around 9000 globally. The nCoV virus is up to 4200 cases and it hasn’t even really gotten going yet unfortunately.

Let’s hope all airlines flying in and out of China make responsible decisions in coordination with their government’s health agencies.

The decisions are sadly made in the boardrooms. Without solid reports to back decisions, it is hard to buck against Wall Street, executives are aware stockholders will look for a fall guy if the stock falls without a government reccommendation to act upon.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:19 am

Probably Omni
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:20 am

Who's operating the US repatriation flights? Omni? Dynamic? Atlas?

Might be Atlas because they have done stuff for government in the past.
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Ziyulu
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:26 am

Will these flights have entertainment and complimentary meals?
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:30 am

A little concerned with the Chinese response and the slow trickle of info. Not sure if repatriation flights are such a great idea at the moment unless extreme containment/quarantine measures can be deployed.

Coronavirus has already spread to multiple countries because of the inactions of China. Do we really want a global outbreak?
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
alaskan9974
Posts: 142
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:06 pm

Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:33 am

[code][/code]
Sancho99504 wrote:
A little concerned with the Chinese response and the slow trickle of info. Not sure if repatriation flights are such a great idea at the moment unless extreme containment/quarantine measures can be deployed.

Coronavirus has already spread to multiple countries because of the inactions of China. Do we really want a global outbreak?

I saw the numbers posted before...30k estimate for travelers from China some of whom may have had contact with an infected person in China have already entered the US. I need to go back through my history and see if I can link it. I believe it tracked the number from Wuhan and surrounding areas coming to the US.

If the announcement is to be believed by the. wuhan mayor, up to 5 million left the city before the quarantine.

Conflicting reports as to if the host is contagious before symptoms show...with a incubation period of 5-14 days it is likely many more cases will start to appear in the US.

The problem most people have, is they don’t realize that with long incubation times, the number we see now is lagging behind several days to the actual number, take into account exponential growth and it can get alarming.

As for persons on the US flights, I expect them to be watched a bit more closely then the other thousands who came in previously.
Last edited by alaskan9974 on Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
COEWR787
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:37 am

According to several news reports in India, Air India has a 747 standing by to go on an evacuation trip as soon as the Indian Embassy in China give the go ahead, to evacuate Indians stranded in Wuhan.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:41 am

COEWR787 wrote:
According to several news reports in India, Air India has a 747 standing by to go on an evacuation trip as soon as the Indian Embassy in China give the go ahead, to evacuate Indians stranded in Wuhan.


No country has attempted a rescue flight yet correct?
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
alaskan9974
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:44 am

Varsity1 wrote:
COEWR787 wrote:
According to several news reports in India, Air India has a 747 standing by to go on an evacuation trip as soon as the Indian Embassy in China give the go ahead, to evacuate Indians stranded in Wuhan.


No country has attempted a rescue flight yet correct?

It seems as though several were underway, but China put a stop to it, looking at the US state department site, it now mentions there may be exit restrictions in place.

I think the US is in a better bargaining position to put pressure to release its staff, not sure how it would effect diplomatic travel vs foreign nationals in China, but not a position I would want to be in, facing the prospect of having to remain in that city and reliant on the government for food and water etc.
 
lessredtape
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:17 am

where do they quarantine & for how long ? 2 weeks, 4 weeks, longer ?

They should probably all stay in China.
 
Waterbomber2
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Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:50 am

As you all know, a major outbreak of Corona virus is ongoing, with 5000 confirmed cases and the death toll reaching 100, quickly overshadowing the SARS outbreak in 2003 which caused major operational disruptions in aviation.

I suggest that we discuss aviation disruptions in this thread or any effect on airlines.
Feel free to share how this outbreak has affected your travel plans and we are also eager to hear from our friends in China working in aviation about what's going on at their airlines.

I'll start with this piece:

Airlines, hotels, and cruise lines sink as China's spreading coronavirus spurs travel anxiety.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-m ... lip-2020-1
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:04 am

alaskan9974 wrote:
[code][/code]
Sancho99504 wrote:
A little concerned with the Chinese response and the slow trickle of info. Not sure if repatriation flights are such a great idea at the moment unless extreme containment/quarantine measures can be deployed.

Coronavirus has already spread to multiple countries because of the inactions of China. Do we really want a global outbreak?

I saw the numbers posted before...30k estimate for travelers from China some of whom may have had contact with an infected person in China have already entered the US. I need to go back through my history and see if I can link it. I believe it tracked the number from Wuhan and surrounding areas coming to the US.

If the announcement is to be believed by the. wuhan mayor, up to 5 million left the city before the quarantine.

Conflicting reports as to if the host is contagious before symptoms show...with a incubation period of 5-14 days it is likely many more cases will start to appear in the US.

The problem most people have, is they don’t realize that with long incubation times, the number we see now is lagging behind several days to the actual number, take into account exponential growth and it can get alarming.

As for persons on the US flights, I expect them to be watched a bit more closely then the other thousands who came in previously.

I figure the actual number of infected and dead are at least 3 times the number that's been reported.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
alaskan9974
Posts: 142
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:14 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
alaskan9974 wrote:
[code][/code]
Sancho99504 wrote:
I figure the actual number of infected and dead are at least 3 times the number that's been reported.

They have already admitted as much. They are not testing everyone, and news reports indicate their hospitals have turned some patients away.

Spain, Portugal and Germany have plans to evacuate their citizens. I have not seen details on flights yet.

In the article in Der Spiegel they used a picture of a military Airbus, is it possibly China will allow a foreign military transport to land at Wuhan?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7933405/Wuhan-mayor-admits-withholding-information-coronavirus-outbreak.html
 
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Tabito
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:23 am

ANA evacuation flight delays due to PRC government approval.
One 767 of two evacuation flights will depart soon and return from Wuhan to Tokyo Haneda tomorrow morning.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Wuhan Evacuation Flights - Who is operating?

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:56 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
A little concerned with the Chinese response and the slow trickle of info. Not sure if repatriation flights are such a great idea at the moment unless extreme containment/quarantine measures can be deployed.

Coronavirus has already spread to multiple countries because of the inactions of China. Do we really want a global outbreak?


AFAIK, the French said the evacuees on their flight would be placed in 2 weeks quarantine on arrival in France.
It seems like France has offered spare seats on its flight to other European nations. Wonder what they will use, the A340-200?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:20 am

Staying on the topic of Japan, the virus outbreak is already causing major disruptions.

Tokyo (CNN) — The phone lines at Kamome, a Tokyo-based travel agency that specializes in tours for Chinese travelers, haven't stopped buzzing for the last three days.
On Sunday, China announced a ban on outbound group travel as part of its battle to stop the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, which has killed 82 people and infected 2,700 in the country.
That has caused cancellation mayhem for Kamome's staff as more than 20,000 of the company's Chinese package tour customers pulled the plug on all trips to Japan up to February 10.
With Japan receiving approximately 9.6 million visitors from China in 2019, accounting for a third of foreign tourist expenditure in the country, speculation is growing around the ramifications the travel ban will have on Japan's tourism industry and economy.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

SARS took more than 6 months to contain.
It's still too early to tell, but at this pace the Tokyo Summer Olympics may have to be cancelled or postponed.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... i_hxGko80M
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:27 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It's still too early to tell, but at this pace the Tokyo Summer Olympics may have to be cancelled or postponed.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... i_hxGko80M


Nothing short of nuclear war is going to postpone, much less cancel the Olympics.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:30 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Staying on the topic of Japan, the virus outbreak is already causing major disruptions.

Tokyo (CNN) — The phone lines at Kamome, a Tokyo-based travel agency that specializes in tours for Chinese travelers, haven't stopped buzzing for the last three days.
On Sunday, China announced a ban on outbound group travel as part of its battle to stop the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, which has killed 82 people and infected 2,700 in the country.
That has caused cancellation mayhem for Kamome's staff as more than 20,000 of the company's Chinese package tour customers pulled the plug on all trips to Japan up to February 10.
With Japan receiving approximately 9.6 million visitors from China in 2019, accounting for a third of foreign tourist expenditure in the country, speculation is growing around the ramifications the travel ban will have on Japan's tourism industry and economy.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

SARS took more than 6 months to contain.
It's still too early to tell, but at this pace the Tokyo Summer Olympics may have to be cancelled or postponed.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... i_hxGko80M


Just awful... 2020 is turning out to be a revolting year already.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:40 am

Image

Ground staff at a check-in counter at Narita International Airport in the city of Narita, Chiba Prefecture, are seen using masks. (Mainichi/Tadakazu Nakamura)

NARITA, Chiba -- Flight attendants with All Nippon Airways Co. (ANA) and Japan Airlines Co. (JAL) began using face masks on flights connecting Japan to China and Hong Kong on Jan. 24 in response to the new coronavirus breakout that apparently began in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20 ... na/006000c
 
VV
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:43 am

I do not think it would be worse than 2001, 2002 and 2003 with the several consecutive events: 9/11 in 2001, Bali bombings in 2002 and SARS crisis in 2003.

This said, the situation this year can worsen if someone launches a huge armed conflict somewhere in October.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:18 am

As suggested above this thread serves the purpose to discuss the aviation related issues, news etc. with respect to the Corona Virus outbreak. There were more than one threads discussing this topic, hence they have been merged into one.

For discussing the general topic, please see:

Novel Coronavirus outbreak
 
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Zoedyn
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Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:27 am

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeboyd/2 ... d32f7e208c

Major takeaways:
:arrow: On-going coronavirus epidemic is sending China-US air traffic into free-fall, and is going to devastate traffic for a period of at least six months or maybe longer.
:arrow: Through this June, at least a 75% drop is forecast for passenger traffic between the USA and China,
:arrow: Leisure traffic – about 60% of the passenger base - is effectively gone.
:arrow: Chinese carriers may quickly cut the number of flights to the U.S. – on a “temporary basis.” Service from any second-tier Chinese city (like WUH, FOC, XIY, NKG, etc.) is most likely to discontinue
:arrow: Even a couple of Chinese carriers may completely or substantially drop out of the U.S. market.
-------------------

Terribly bleak prospects for China-US air traffic to the start of a whole new decade :brokenheart:
Fingers crossed :oops:
Last edited by Zoedyn on Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - disruptions, consequences

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:27 am

VV wrote:
I do not think it would be worse than 2001, 2002 and 2003 with the several consecutive events: 9/11 in 2001, Bali bombings in 2002 and SARS crisis in 2003.

This said, the situation this year can worsen if someone launches a huge armed conflict somewhere in October.


already the fact that now there are social media amplifying everything the effect on economy, consumption, travel will be much bigger than ever before. welcome to the globalized world where everything can be followed live.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:28 am

soon all intercont traffic will be stopped.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 am

Kikko19 wrote:
soon all intercont traffic will be stopped.

No indication of that. Nor did that occur the last time we saw a CoronaVirus strain devastate China (e.g. SARS)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
max999
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:58 am

If SARS in 2003 was any indication for air travel, I think this crisis will be just as devastating for the airlines. Planes were flying empty to and from Asia. And airlines were offering rock bottom fares trying to fill all those empty seats.

Cathay Pacific was severely affected during SARS. According to this Wall Street Journal article https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB105036472266567800

The airline has cut 42% of its weekly flight schedule and is losing cash at a rate of $3 million a day. Its daily passenger load has fallen to fewer than 10,000 from 33,000. And an internal company memo written by the director of flight operations, Nick Rhodes, warned that if daily passenger traffic dipped below 6,000 the carrier would have to consider grounding its entire passenger-jet fleet.

"We had contingency planning that figured in a drop in passenger loads of up to 25%, but we could never have anticipated anything like the 70% drop we're seeing now," says Tony Tyler, Cathay's director of corporate development. Though he says the airline has no plans at the moment to ground its fleet, he notes that operating at current passenger levels is "not a sustainable business model."
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:25 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
soon all intercont traffic will be stopped.

No indication of that. Nor did that occur the last time we saw a CoronaVirus strain devastate China (e.g. SARS)

Coronavirus is many times worse than SARS. It has spread to more countries in the last week tham SARS did in 6 months.

China was caught totally unprepared when SARS first came out. It took 3 months until the World Health Organisation was informed.

With the current outbreak China jumped onto it within days yet it still spread extremely quick. This is a very bad sign.

I estimate that Coronavirus is more than 10 times as contagious as SARS but thankfully it is about half as deadly. The problem with this new virus is it could easily result in 100 times as many deaths worldwide due to the sheer number of possible infections.

In Australia schools are already putting out warnings which is unprecedented. Once international students return to Australia to start school next week we might see a sudden surge of infections. I could easily see Australia rapidly shut its borders if there is a surge. Qantas would be sending mostly empty planes to Asia to pick up Australian citizens where they would then be quarantined for the proposed 14 days.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:33 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
soon all intercont traffic will be stopped.

No indication of that. Nor did that occur the last time we saw a CoronaVirus strain devastate China (e.g. SARS)


wait a bit but think out of the box. This has already 4k infected while the other had max 8000 in total. We are just at the begin. Better start to stockpile food than travel.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Forbes Article: China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:34 am

RJMAZ wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
soon all intercont traffic will be stopped.

No indication of that. Nor did that occur the last time we saw a CoronaVirus strain devastate China (e.g. SARS)

Coronavirus is many times worse than SARS.

....um, you do realize that "SARS" was just the acronym describing the result of exposure to Coronavirus, and not some separate disease/concept, do you not?

Same core illness then and now.

Primary differences are the current strain, and the undeniableness of the outbreak.
Let's not forget that China was less-than-forthcoming about the actual state of the disease, its spread, and its containment; in previous outbreaks.

I dare say that if electronic and social media were as they are now, back in 2003, we'd likely have witnessed similar numbers for the initial spread of the disease; which mainland China didn't even acknowledge as occurring, back in the early stages, and fell to HKG to initiate/participate in a global response for the whole Guangdong region.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Adipocere
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:22 am

Do countries other than the United States have any leverage with the Chinese government to evacuate their own citizens? I believe only the US has successfully pulled out its citizens rather quickly while a group of other countries seem to be essentially pleading with China. What kind of objections would China have if other countries want to take sick people off its hands? Are these kind of flights part of ICAO treaties?
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:29 am

jaybird wrote:
The situation is going to get worse before it gets better. Google SARS .. and SARS affect on the airline industry. It was not pretty.


But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.
Good moaning!
 
Kikko19
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:47 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
jaybird wrote:
The situation is going to get worse before it gets better. Google SARS .. and SARS affect on the airline industry. It was not pretty.


But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.

Few died because it was contained. This one is hard to control. Even with only 3% of death rate we speak about 250 million deaths worldwide (potential if not mutating in worse). A good reason to be careful
 
RJMAZ
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:48 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.

9.6% of people who caught SARS died.

It is estimated that 10% of the global population get the flu each season with less than 1% showing symptons to gather statistics. Of that 1% that show symptons less than 1% die. Nearly all of the people that die from the flu are already severely ill. A death rate of less than 0.0001%.

So SARS is more than 96,000 times as deadly as the flu. SARS was killing people who were healthy.
Last edited by RJMAZ on Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Tabito
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:49 am

Japan's first evacuation flight depart at 20:00 JST from HND to WUH.
ANA B767 (JA607A)
 
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lugie
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Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:06 am

Kikko19 wrote:
But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.

Few died because it was contained. This one is hard to control. Even with only 3% of death rate we speak about 250 million deaths worldwide (potential if not mutating in worse). A good reason to be careful[/quote]

How do you get to a number of 250 million deaths worldwide?

At an assumed 3% mortality rate that means the Corona virus would have to infect 8.33 billion people, aka more than every single human on earth.

I do believe that over the next weeks, infection numbers may increase somewhat dramatically owing to the long incubation period, but after that they should start stabilizing or tapering off.
Maybe a million people might get infected, which of course puts the virus on a whole other scale than SARS with its 8,000 cases and given the mortality rate would imply some 30,000 deaths (which, don't get me wrong, is a lot for a new virus). But I'm highly confident it won't get anywhere near the number you proposed.

It seems rather well survivable, especially in the cases of somewhat fit patients with access to industrial-nation standard healthcare. Also, the effects of the drastic measures China has taken to contain it in Wuhan will kick in with a delay as well (once again, due to the incubation period).
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
Kikko19
Posts: 681
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:09 am

lugie wrote:
But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.

Few died because it was contained. This one is hard to control. Even with only 3% of death rate we speak about 250 million deaths worldwide (potential if not mutating in worse). A good reason to be careful


How do you get to a number of 250 million deaths worldwide?

At an assumed 3% mortality rate that means the Corona virus would have to infect 8.33 billion people, aka more than every single human on earth.

I do believe that over the next weeks, infection numbers may increase somewhat dramatically owing to the long incubation period, but after that they should start stabilizing or tapering off.
Maybe a million people might get infected, which of course puts the virus on a whole other scale than SARS with its 8,000 cases and given the mortality rate would imply some 30,000 deaths (which, don't get me wrong, is a lot for a new virus). But I'm highly confident it won't get anywhere near the number you proposed.

It seems rather well survivable, especially in the cases of somewhat fit patients with access to industrial-nation standard healthcare. Also, the effects of the drastic measures China has taken to contain it in Wuhan will kick in with a delay as well (once again, due to the incubation period).[/quote]
someone quoted me wrongly :D
 
art
Posts: 3494
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:51 am

RJMAZ wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
But why?

Some 800 people died of SARS. A low number compared to the thousands of people who die from flu every year.

9.6% of people who caught SARS died.

It is estimated that 10% of the global population get the flu each season with less than 1% showing symptons to gather statistics. Of that 1% that show symptons less than 1% die. Nearly all of the people that die from the flu are already severely ill. A death rate of less than 0.0001%.

So SARS is more than 96,000 times as deadly as the flu. SARS was killing people who were healthy.


You say a flu death rate of less than 0.0001%. Unless you made a mistake with the zeros, I make that less than 1 in a million. On that basis if everyone on earth (about 8 billion) caught flu, only 8,000 would die. I don't think that quoted flu mortality rate of 0.0001% is at all accurate.

By the way I don't think that the disruption to air transport is tied closely to mortality levels. If it is highly infectious iI think it will prove extremely disruptive to communal ttravel of many kinds - plane, train, bus, metro etc The world could slow down a lot.
 
KIRFlyer
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:08 pm

There is currently a China Southern Airlines 777 trvelling WUH-SFO on FlightRadar24. Is this a US repatriation flight?
 
KIRFlyer
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2013 5:46 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:09 pm

There is currently a China Southern Airlines 777 trvelling WUH-SFO on FlightRadar24. Is this a US repatriation flight?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2053
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: SFO-PEK/PVG Chinese loads appear to drop

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:05 pm

art wrote:
You say a flu death rate of less than 0.0001%. Unless you made a mistake with the zeros, I make that less than 1 in a million. On that basis if everyone on earth (about 8 billion) caught flu, only 8,000 would die. I don't think that quoted flu mortality rate of 0.0001% is at all accurate.

My mistake. I meant 0.0001 without the percentage sign. 1% is 0.01.

0.88% of the total global population died last year. Or around 70 million people. The flu counts for around 650,000 deaths per year.
 
User avatar
Zoedyn
Posts: 789
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:46 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:10 pm

Clearly, whether upon CAAC requests or not, virtually the whole Chinese airline industry has been urgently mobilized in the unprecedentedly massive national fight against the coronavirus across mainland China, as shown below in these headlines that keep coming :airplane:

Just hoping, with the phenomenally strong, tough action taken by Chinese governments at various levels, this epidemic would soon get under control decisively in the next few weeks :banghead:

南航运送新疆首批142名医疗队成员千里驰援武汉China Southern carries 1st batch of 142 medical staff from Xinjiang to Wuhan
大年初二南航四班包机驰援武汉,出台疫情援助物资免费运输政策China Southern sends 4 charter flights to Wuhan, charges no fees for medical supplies conveyance
再援武汉!东航承运上海市第二批医疗队启程China Eastern carries 2nd batch of Shanghai medical staff to Wuhan
东航波音777全货机海外急运316万只口罩直飞武汉China Eastern hastens to convey 3.16 million face masks to Wuhan using B777F
浙江长龙航空承运浙江省医疗队驰援武汉Zhejiang Loong Air carries medical team of Zhejiang Province to Wuhan
桂林航空在行动:免费运送防疫医疗救援物资Guilin Air conveys medical supplies free of charge
春秋航空组织包机运送防疫物资Spring Airlines arranges charter flights to convey medical supplies
海南航空首架包机从海南起飞驰援武汉Hainan Airlines' 1st charter flight flies to Wuhan
国航调配运力资源 保障救灾物资运抵武汉Air China allocates capacity to ensure relief supplies for Wuhan
山航第二架包机载送两万副护目镜驰援武汉Shandong Airlines sends 2nd charter flight to Wuhan loaded with 20,000 pairs of safety glasses


China's state broadcaster CCTV reports that about 7,000 doctors have been enlisted from across China to help out Hubei Province in the virus fight :weightlifter:
Last edited by Zoedyn on Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ShanghaiNoon
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:45 am

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:12 pm

I left Shanghai for a holiday in Malaysia on the 17th, just before the news hit. On the 26th I flew from Penang to Kuching and most of the airpott staff and all of the cabin crew were wearing masks. They announced to use that it was only a precautionary measure and that we shouldn't be alarmed. There doesn't seem to be any concern about the virus here on Borneo. I had purchased my outbound and returned ticket separately. I cancelled my return ticket and 9C gave me a full refund.
 
art
Posts: 3494
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:33 pm

At what point do airlines suspendi/consolidatie flights to zones where load factors have dropped well below the viable?

Another question: how are pilots and cabin crew to be protected from catching the virus? I imagine that an enclosed space which may hold one or more infected passengers is a great environment for virus transmission.
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