chonetsao wrote:I think the next critical question is:
How do airlines including US3, QF, IAG...etc offset the reduction of capacity to Greater China. The current situation impact on ME3 in a minimum term, but a much bigger impact on US3 and EU3. Considering some of the carrier will have extra planes and personal for 2 to 3 months before the Easter peak arrives, what methods those airlines can take temporarily to reduce the numbers of packed planes and reduce its financial impacts?
I believe, the impact for the big US and EU carriers will be limited. It has to be feared, that the whole global and later in many/most countries also the domestic travel will decrease or (as already seen) between some countries. shut down. So your question; the global traffic will shrink in the next month, many routes will be shut down, all these wb planes not needed will be parked somewhere for some time.
The more important and critical question will be, how many airlines will not survive this coronavirus issue in the next few month? There are many airlines in the south and south east Asia area, who are already prolonged in trouble, like Air India, Malaysia group, Thai, Hongkong Airlines and the whole Hainan group e.g., just to mention some of the most important ones.
And than all of the airlines globally, who are already in stress and will be harmed, as the whole domestic and international traffic will be reduced. Will Norwegian survive? All these small national airlines? Will these airlines, even they will survive badly harmed, be able to take up all ordered planes? Will some of them take any chance to get out of the contracts or to defer them to a later time? After which delay, an airline is allowed to cancel an order? Soon there will be a delay of more than one year in the MAX orders...And will they be allowed to ask additional for a compensation from Boeing?
I have already asked here in this thread, if a own "Hainan Coronavirus killed airlines ticker thread" will be useful, I am surprised, that we not already hear of the first airlines in real big trouble and likely collapsing in next days/weeks.