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leleko747
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:48 pm

Clackers wrote:

Sorry, I got Gran Canaria and Grand Cayman mixed up. :D

Still a lot of stops for an Embraer. Didn't the Brazilian Air Force have any larger aircraft?


lol no worries
Indeed, a long route for these E-Jets.
Unfortunately our single 767, FAB2900 (would be great for this flight!), was returned to lessor last year.
Bigger than the Embraer 190, the only other jet is the Airbus A319 ACJ currently used as the presidential aircraft, but this one couldn't be used at all.
It's a single plane and it have a VIP interior. Probably not suitable for this operation.

In my opinion, would be better to quick lease a widebody for this flight.
I wonder when people will understand:
Embraer 190 or simply E190, not ERJ-190. E-Jets are NOT ERJs!
Boeing 747-8, not Boeing 747-800. Same goes for 787.
Airbus A320, not Airbus 320.
Airbii does not exist.
 
alan3
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:07 pm

HiFly A330 now en route from Wuhan to Vancouver: https://www.flightradar24.com/HFM322/23c7656d

A second flight will operate on Monday.
 
chrisp390
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:21 pm

Any plans to dust off the HiFly A380 for any additional rescue flights?
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:29 pm

UK SUN paper

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10904402/ ... -as-24589/

Travelers that have not been in China are now coming down with it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... pdate-news

Further flight bans coming for other airlines and countries coming ?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:05 pm

From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:07 pm

qf789 wrote:
Virgin Australia to end HKG flights on 2 March

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Besides VA pulling out of HKG, what other routes to China/Hong Kong are getting axed completely as a result of the coronavirus?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:02 am

rjbesikof wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Virgin Australia to end HKG flights on 2 March

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Besides VA pulling out of HKG, what other routes to China/Hong Kong are getting axed completely as a result of the coronavirus?


SAA to HKG is one. Although they have suspended that route since November, and SAA is a mess.

Pretty much everything else is just a suspension AFAIK.
 
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zeke
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:29 am

rjbesikof wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Virgin Australia to end HKG flights on 2 March

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Besides VA pulling out of HKG, what other routes to China/Hong Kong are getting axed completely as a result of the coronavirus?


I am not sure if VA pulling out of HKG is really about the virus, they were due to start HND in March. If it was about the virus they wouldn’t start Japan, they have twice as many people infected there compared to HKG.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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qf789
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:37 am

zeke wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Virgin Australia to end HKG flights on 2 March

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Besides VA pulling out of HKG, what other routes to China/Hong Kong are getting axed completely as a result of the coronavirus?


I am not sure if VA pulling out of HKG is really about the virus, they were due to start HND in March. If it was about the virus they wouldn’t start Japan, they have twice as many people infected there compared to HKG.


This has nothing to do with Japan. Virgin has been clear that the uncivil unrest in HKG and now the Coronavirus have now made HKG commercially unviable. They do feed a lot onto HX and that do doubt is having an significant impact on the route. As of about a week ago VA had stated internally that HKG was staying but that was subject to it be constantly reviewed.
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smartplane
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:42 am

Bet there's been a massive increase in the sales of new replacement air filters (and reduction in cleaning and re-use of old), and flight crew are operating with maximum new / minimum re-circulated air, even though this comes at a flight cost overhead.

Is the maximum new:re-circulated ratio much lower for the 787 and A350 than on older models? Is the A350 better than the 787? Can the flight crew increase the ratio for the pointy end only, and let the rest of the plane suffer?
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:05 am

qf789 wrote:
KE5 ICN-LAS diverted to LAX with 3 passengers suspected of having Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/airportwebcams/stat ... 93185?s=21


Oh no! I was so excited when this flight started. I hope it will be back soon after this mess dies down.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
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zeke
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:56 am

qf789 wrote:

This has nothing to do with Japan. Virgin has been clear that the uncivil unrest in HKG and now the Coronavirus have now made HKG commercially unviable. They do feed a lot onto HX and that do doubt is having an significant impact on the route. As of about a week ago VA had stated internally that HKG was staying but that was subject to it be constantly reviewed.


What you have cited here are commercial reasons based upon a reduction of demand. This is normally a soft time of year anyway, HX has been having issues well before the protests and 2019-nCoV as evidenced by HKIA impounding 7 aircraft last year.

My point is you don’t blame a 2019-nCoV when you are about to open up a new route to a destination that has twice as many confined cases.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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qf789
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:09 am

Hong Kong Airlines to axe 400 jobs, 2 weeks unpaid leave for staff

https://twitter.com/journodannyaero/sta ... 41729?s=21
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berari
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:43 am

While Ethiopian Airlines continues to fly into China despite calls to cease those flights, they are reducing frequencies in February as follows and reverting to flying using the B787 from A359 and B77W service:

- down from daily to 5x per week: Beijing, Shanghai,
- down from 10x per week to 5x per week: Guangzhou
- down from 4x per week to 2x per week: Chengdu
- down from daily to 1x per week: Hong Kong (and by extension, Manila)
 
ghYHZ
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:47 pm

I've been following the progress of HiFly HFM322...the Canadian charter from Wuhan and it has just arrived in Trenton ON (100 miles east of Toronto). It landed first in Vancouver and I note it's route east was entirely in Canadian airspace. I realize a lot of factors come into play but I wonder if this route was specifically planned? My most recent flight from YVR to YYZ had us in US airspace for nearly the entire route....even taking us over Abedeen SD. If something did happen enroute from YVR....they probably did not want to be dealing with health issues in the US for Canadian passengers who will now be quarantined for 14 days in Trenton.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/HFM ... /CYVR/CYTR

https://www.cbc.ca/news

And a US bound Kalitta charter from Wuhan has also just landed in Vancouver before continuing on. It topped off it's passenger manifest with some additional Canadian evacuees. These Canadians will board an Nolinor '737 at YVR and also be taken to Trenton.
 
grjplanes
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:34 pm

While we're seeing a lot of cancellations, suspensions and reductions for travel to and in China and Hong Kong (would be interesting to know what % of flights to/from and in China is already cancelled)...I'm wondering if other routes outside of this might start to be affected, either for being in the vicinity or maybe more reliant on Chinese travelers ie:
From other continents to other Asian countries (ie: Germany to SIN or US to South Korea)
Between other Asian countries and domestic...perhaps a reliance on Chinese travelers as part of their travels (ie. between Korea and Japan, SIN to India, BKK-HKT)
Further flung airlines which rely heavy on Chinese connections onward (ie Ethiopian from ADD to other African destinations, EK/EY/QR from their hubs to Africa, South America, Europe)
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:20 pm

Polot wrote:
When it comes to travel demand what matters is perception, not reality. If HKG is perceived as being closer to the issue with an increased risk of contracting the virus while there then people will stop going there, even if other Asian countries have more cases. For many people Hong Kong = part of China where there are 10s of thousands of confirmed cases. They are not checking daily updates to see how many people are infected in each region of China, or how far away HKG or Chinese city X is from Wuhan. It’s the same reason why social unrest kills demands. Although the chances of it affecting you are low (especially if just connecting) people perceive it as a potential problem that they don’t want to be caught up in.

Also the large Japanese numbers include the cases from the Princess Dream, which obviously visitors to Japan will not be boarding. Outside of that in Japan itself there are 25 cases as of 2/6 according to your favorite WHO source, which is only 4 more than HKG.


Also keep in mind, in a larger picture, I would bet a fair number of pax on VA's flight to HKG transit to mainland, either via ground transit (i.e. to rest of PRD) or to a HX flight. Those demand would be reduced either way.
 
Tankdiver
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:19 pm

I work for SIA Engineering at LAX. We handle pax and cargo transit flights for nearly all Asian carriers (CI, BR, CZ, CA, MU, HU, HX, etc..) into LAX. We just had a staff meeting about this Corona Virus situation. Management notified us that we lost over 85 flights a week..so some cuts are coming. They don't expect things to recover for months, even if this Corona virus thing is contained and they resume flights again.
 
Pentaprism
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:18 am

Second QF rescue flight denied permission to operate by Chinese Government for some reason. From what I can figure it is still in HKG waiting for approval and will eventually fly HKG-WUH-DRW.

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus ... d-c-687255
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:19 am

Tankdiver wrote:
I work for SIA Engineering at LAX. We handle pax and cargo transit flights for nearly all Asian carriers (CI, BR, CZ, CA, MU, HU, HX, etc..) into LAX. We just had a staff meeting about this Corona Virus situation. Management notified us that we lost over 85 flights a week..so some cuts are coming. They don't expect things to recover for months, even if this Corona virus thing is contained and they resume flights again.


What cuts could we see?
 
CXH
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:58 am

ghYHZ wrote:
I've been following the progress of HiFly HFM322...the Canadian charter from Wuhan and it has just arrived in Trenton ON (100 miles east of Toronto). It landed first in Vancouver and I note it's route east was entirely in Canadian airspace. I realize a lot of factors come into play but I wonder if this route was specifically planned? My most recent flight from YVR to YYZ had us in US airspace for nearly the entire route....even taking us over Abedeen SD. If something did happen enroute from YVR....they probably did not want to be dealing with health issues in the US for Canadian passengers who will now be quarantined for 14 days in Trenton.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/HFM ... /CYVR/CYTR

https://www.cbc.ca/news

And a US bound Kalitta charter from Wuhan has also just landed in Vancouver before continuing on. It topped off it's passenger manifest with some additional Canadian evacuees. These Canadians will board an Nolinor '737 at YVR and also be taken to Trenton.


Thanks for the info. But I wouldn't read too much into the YVR-YTR flight routing. I've flown on YVR-YYZ flights alot over the years, and some flights are almost entirely in Canada while some are mostly over American airspace. I think prevailing winds and other air traffic are the reasons.

The last three AC185 flights are almost all over Canada. I picked this one since i'll be on it in a few days. :-)
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ACA185
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:14 am

I'm talking with former colleagues at a Lufthansa group airline. They are saying that managements are worried about demand to/from Asia but also reduced demand for feeding and even intra-EU flying as people are holding off booking leisure travel for the summer.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:33 am

rjbesikof wrote:
Tankdiver wrote:
I work for SIA Engineering at LAX. We handle pax and cargo transit flights for nearly all Asian carriers (CI, BR, CZ, CA, MU, HU, HX, etc..) into LAX. We just had a staff meeting about this Corona Virus situation. Management notified us that we lost over 85 flights a week..so some cuts are coming. They don't expect things to recover for months, even if this Corona virus thing is contained and they resume flights again.


What cuts could we see?


I imagine if this situation persists, the thin routes flying to secondary airports in either US/Europe or China will be canned first. Things like Frankfurt-Changsa or Boston-Beijing. Going back to the old days of only having trunk routes (with reduced frequencies) like Frankfurt-Shanghai or Beijing-Los Angeles.

Also some carriers with little presence in China might leave. Iberia has only MAD-PVG a few times a week. A prime candidate to leave the market.
 
BHXflyinghigh
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:45 am

SCQ83 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Tankdiver wrote:
I work for SIA Engineering at LAX. We handle pax and cargo transit flights for nearly all Asian carriers (CI, BR, CZ, CA, MU, HU, HX, etc..) into LAX. We just had a staff meeting about this Corona Virus situation. Management notified us that we lost over 85 flights a week..so some cuts are coming. They don't expect things to recover for months, even if this Corona virus thing is contained and they resume flights again.


What cuts could we see?


I imagine if this situation persists, the thin routes flying to secondary airports in either US/Europe or China will be canned first. Things like Frankfurt-Changsa or Boston-Beijing. Going back to the old days of only having trunk routes (with reduced frequencies) like Frankfurt-Shanghai or Beijing-Los Angeles.


Agreed. Hainan have just suspended PEK-MAN and given the fact it had already been reduced to x3 weekly this summer I wouldn’t be surprised if this one doesn’t come back for a good while.
 
sincx
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:01 am

According to DOT filings, CA will be cancelling all its China-US flights except for the following, starting Feb 11:

PEK-LAX-SFO-LAX-PEK 4x weekly
PEK-JFK-IAD-JFK-PEK 3x weekly

Not sure why CA is still trying to keep a token presence in SFO and IAD. No cabotage rights on US domestic segments obviously. The domestic tags are also in the middle of the night. Is it for diplomatic staff?
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:37 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I'm talking with former colleagues at a Lufthansa group airline. They are saying that managements are worried about demand to/from Asia but also reduced demand for feeding and even intra-EU flying as people are holding off booking leisure travel for the summer.


I was afraid there would be an overreaction. Was the intra-Europe comment based on actual bookings?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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SQ789
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:56 am

What about CI and BR? Will they follow the others in suspending flights to China? Both Taiwanese airlines has limited flights to China (excluding HK or Macau) now.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
Kikko19
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:38 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I'm talking with former colleagues at a Lufthansa group airline. They are saying that managements are worried about demand to/from Asia but also reduced demand for feeding and even intra-EU flying as people are holding off booking leisure travel for the summer.


I was afraid there would be an overreaction. Was the intra-Europe comment based on actual bookings?


of course they are! i'm not booking anything for 2 reasons 1) if the virus will spread in Europe i'm not going anywhere, need funds to stockpile foods and medicines and other survival items. 2) If Europe won't be affected i'd wait for very large discounts since less people would travel due to the economical recession looming (china is off line and not producing anything for a while), since people cannot travel going to be unemployed while still have to pay loans and leasings. 2b) EU airlines could reduce traffic because of that since less passengers will be travelling therefore it's completely pointless to book right now..
 
acomp
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:47 am

SQ789 wrote:
What about CI and BR? Will they follow the others in suspending flights to China? Both Taiwanese airlines has limited flights to China (excluding HK or Macau) now.


Taiwan CDC announced that all carriers can only operate flights from/to Beijing, Shanghai(PVG, SHA), Xiamen, and Chengdu between 2/10/20 to 4/29/20.
We'll see CI and BR downsize the aircraft and further reduce the frequency of these remaining routes.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:36 am

sassiciai wrote:
I was working at Changi airport in 2003 from February onwards,and recall the sight of a growing number of SIA aircraft withdrawn from service and parked in rows in the area leading to the Cargo and SIAEC area. It was a very visual reminder of the impact SARS was having at that time. [On a not-connected note, I also recall the scenes at Brussels Airport immediately following the collapse of Sabena, with the vast majority of the fleet parked up all around BRU but off-gate, a very sad sight]

I wonder if our contributors in the areas most affected todate can tell us of any buildup of aircraft withdrawn from service happening at airports in the region. If Cathay is reducing by 30%, that must lead to approx 30% of its fleet not being required at present. The situation with Chinese airlines will be even more grave. AirAsia has been mentioned as being hard hit, where would WFU aircraft be stored?

Thanks to all who are able to update us on this aspect of the impact. Any photos would be much appreciated!


59EF3F36-24A7-428E-9DB7-E29FDD745C21.jpeg

Today’s photo from a local aviation fb page
 
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:58 am

Kikko19 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I'm talking with former colleagues at a Lufthansa group airline. They are saying that managements are worried about demand to/from Asia but also reduced demand for feeding and even intra-EU flying as people are holding off booking leisure travel for the summer.


I was afraid there would be an overreaction. Was the intra-Europe comment based on actual bookings?


of course they are! i'm not booking anything for 2 reasons 1) if the virus will spread in Europe i'm not going anywhere, need funds to stockpile foods and medicines and other survival items. 2) If Europe won't be affected i'd wait for very large discounts since less people would travel due to the economical recession looming (china is off line and not producing anything for a while), since people cannot travel going to be unemployed while still have to pay loans and leasings. 2b) EU airlines could reduce traffic because of that since less passengers will be travelling therefore it's completely pointless to book right now..


I wonder how the yield management strategy will play out. Less demand normally translates into lower yields, but depending on how bad it gets, airlines may raise fares to milk those passengers who have sufficient incentive to fly despite a risk to their health (if any).
In China, this is what's happening for now, capacity is down and fares seem to be up, not down.

Will airlines maintain frequencies with smaller and smaller aircraft or park and store their high lease cost aircraft (B787/A350/B777/A320neo), suspend lease payments and consolidate flights onto lower capital cost aircraft? It makes sense to operate fuel guzzlers (low oil prices) and maintenance intensive aircraft now (to keep the MX staff busy), and spare the newer aircraft until things start getting better.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:23 am

qf789 wrote:
Cathay Pacific changes for March


BCN doesn't change a lot I guess because the Mobile World Congress (the biggest year event in Barcelona) is by the end of February.

But ZTE and LG have already confirmed they are not attending due to the virus (Apple never goes there). If any major Chinese like Xiaomi or Huawei cancels, that would take a hit in HKG-BCN.
 
Norman99
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:15 pm

CX TPE flights go from 79/week to 4! Ouch!
 
RvA
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:25 pm

I’d love to see a thread on what airlines are doing with the spare aircraft. I’ve seen LX A343 appear on ZRH-ATH a few times in the next couple of weeks.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:35 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Will airlines maintain frequencies with smaller and smaller aircraft or park and store their high lease cost aircraft (B787/A350/B777/A320neo), suspend lease payments and consolidate flights onto lower capital cost aircraft? It makes sense to operate fuel guzzlers (low oil prices) and maintenance intensive aircraft now (to keep the MX staff busy), and spare the newer aircraft until things start getting better.


You've got it completely backwards. It's very unlikely that carriers will have rights to suspend lease payments (outside of reorganization/bankruptcy). Since you have to pay for new aircraft you're going to fly them - somewhere, anywhere! - so long as total fares exceed variable costs. Variable costs for new planes are lower than for old, fuel-guzzling, high-maintenance planes. It will be old, high-variable-CASM planes that get parked, not new ones. (See, for example, 9/11 and the quick death of 727s in the U.S.)
 
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:26 pm

The second relief flight by Qantas 744 VH-OEE has arrived in WUH after being delayed for 24 hours. Once passengers are on board it will then fly to DRW

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australi ... spartanntp
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qf789
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:37 pm

French Government has updated travel advice for China

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/122 ... 16992?s=20
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MikeyPHX
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:55 pm

Brazilian Embraer evacuation flight is on the way back. Landed in Warsaw today, where 5 Poles disembarked and where taken to quarantine. So while the flight plan looked weird, the operation seems to be a success and pther evacuues are en route back to Brazil.

https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7 ... 2-L.1.maly
(Sadly only article in Polish)
 
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cjg225
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:57 pm

sincx wrote:
According to DOT filings, CA will be cancelling all its China-US flights except for the following, starting Feb 11:

PEK-LAX-SFO-LAX-PEK 4x weekly
PEK-JFK-IAD-JFK-PEK 3x weekly

Not sure why CA is still trying to keep a token presence in SFO and IAD. No cabotage rights on US domestic segments obviously. The domestic tags are also in the middle of the night. Is it for diplomatic staff?

Passenger flights only or also their freighter flights?
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:29 pm

Norman99 wrote:
CX TPE flights go from 79/week to 4! Ouch!


Taiwan is no longer issuing entry permits to people from HK and Macau. BR and CI had cut that normally really busy route to barebone also (1 or 2 daily instead of 8-9).

SCQ83 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Cathay Pacific changes for March


BCN doesn't change a lot I guess because the Mobile World Congress (the biggest year event in Barcelona) is by the end of February.

But ZTE and LG have already confirmed they are not attending due to the virus (Apple never goes there). If any major Chinese like Xiaomi or Huawei cancels, that would take a hit in HKG-BCN.


Nothing to do with that. Europe overall was not cut greatly outside of Italy, with the latter imposing an entry ban to anyone holding a China, HK, and Macau passport.

Either way, looks like KA's mainland schedule stabilized also. Their union are calling for a strike, though, and those routes may still be affected.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:56 pm

Norman99 wrote:
CX TPE flights go from 79/week to 4! Ouch!


18 weekly as the daily flight to KIX and NGO via TPE remain unchanged.
 
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CSN327
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:04 pm

Norman99 wrote:
CX TPE flights go from 79/week to 4! Ouch!


They still got 14 HKG-TPE-KIX/NRT, but nevertheless still a HUGE cut......
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:05 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I was working at Changi airport in 2003 from February onwards,and recall the sight of a growing number of SIA aircraft withdrawn from service and parked in rows in the area leading to the Cargo and SIAEC area. It was a very visual reminder of the impact SARS was having at that time. [On a not-connected note, I also recall the scenes at Brussels Airport immediately following the collapse of Sabena, with the vast majority of the fleet parked up all around BRU but off-gate, a very sad sight]

I wonder if our contributors in the areas most affected todate can tell us of any buildup of aircraft withdrawn from service happening at airports in the region. If Cathay is reducing by 30%, that must lead to approx 30% of its fleet not being required at present. The situation with Chinese airlines will be even more grave. AirAsia has been mentioned as being hard hit, where would WFU aircraft be stored?

Thanks to all who are able to update us on this aspect of the impact. Any photos would be much appreciated!


HKG 8 FEB 2020 Effects of the coronavirus.jpg

Today’s photo from a local aviation fb page
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 711
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:08 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Will airlines maintain frequencies with smaller and smaller aircraft or park and store their high lease cost aircraft (B787/A350/B777/A320neo), suspend lease payments and consolidate flights onto lower capital cost aircraft? It makes sense to operate fuel guzzlers (low oil prices) and maintenance intensive aircraft now (to keep the MX staff busy), and spare the newer aircraft until things start getting better.


You've got it completely backwards. It's very unlikely that carriers will have rights to suspend lease payments (outside of reorganization/bankruptcy). Since you have to pay for new aircraft you're going to fly them - somewhere, anywhere! - so long as total fares exceed variable costs. Variable costs for new planes are lower than for old, fuel-guzzling, high-maintenance planes. It will be old, high-variable-CASM planes that get parked, not new ones. (See, for example, 9/11 and the quick death of 727s in the U.S.)


In a normal downturn scenario you would be right, but this is not a normal downturn scenario.
Everyone said that the Great Recession was the worst since the Great Depression.
This may shape up to be much worse than both combined.
Automakers Honda, Hyundai, Toyota are keeping factories closed, and not only in China. Beijing and Shanghai are ghost cities.

Airlines are already furloughing or firing hundreds of pilots and this thing hasn't even started yet.

IMO it could be so bad that airlines won't be able to make lease payments at all and banks/leasing companies will be forced to accept interruptions to help airlines survive and avoid a total collapse of the entire industry.
It sounds unthinkable today, but let's come back in 2-3 months for a reality check.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5535
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:02 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In a normal downturn scenario you would be right, but this is not a normal downturn scenario.
Everyone said that the Great Recession was the worst since the Great Depression.
This may shape up to be much worse than both combined.
Automakers Honda, Hyundai, Toyota are keeping factories closed, and not only in China. Beijing and Shanghai are ghost cities.


If China crashes, clearly the rest of the world will crash. Many Western companies, from Apple to Louis Vuitton or from Mercedes Benz to any major American university :) rely massively in the Chinese market. It will not only have an impact on international traffic from China but also on the world economy and consequently on air demand everywhere.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 816
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:18 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

I was afraid there would be an overreaction. Was the intra-Europe comment based on actual bookings?


of course they are! i'm not booking anything for 2 reasons 1) if the virus will spread in Europe i'm not going anywhere, need funds to stockpile foods and medicines and other survival items. 2) If Europe won't be affected i'd wait for very large discounts since less people would travel due to the economical recession looming (china is off line and not producing anything for a while), since people cannot travel going to be unemployed while still have to pay loans and leasings. 2b) EU airlines could reduce traffic because of that since less passengers will be travelling therefore it's completely pointless to book right now..


I wonder how the yield management strategy will play out. Less demand normally translates into lower yields, but depending on how bad it gets, airlines may raise fares to milk those passengers who have sufficient incentive to fly despite a risk to their health (if any).
In China, this is what's happening for now, capacity is down and fares seem to be up, not down.

Will airlines maintain frequencies with smaller and smaller aircraft or park and store their high lease cost aircraft (B787/A350/B777/A320neo), suspend lease payments and consolidate flights onto lower capital cost aircraft? It makes sense to operate fuel guzzlers (low oil prices) and maintenance intensive aircraft now (to keep the MX staff busy), and spare the newer aircraft until things start getting better.


Going back to my original question - are intra-EU and NA-EU flights currently showing a noticeable decline from last year?

If so, I'm ready for 2021 already :faint:

BTW - regarding the fleet impact, this is why I say watch the Big 2 Japanese 767 fleets. Both are fleets are young (most built 2000-2013), but the 1982 EIS means they will be retired before any 30 year old A320's or 23 year old 777's. What a waste... I hope that doctor who tried to raise the alarm will at least be Time's Man of the Year.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 711
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:32 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:


of course they are! i'm not booking anything for 2 reasons 1) if the virus will spread in Europe i'm not going anywhere, need funds to stockpile foods and medicines and other survival items. 2) If Europe won't be affected i'd wait for very large discounts since less people would travel due to the economical recession looming (china is off line and not producing anything for a while), since people cannot travel going to be unemployed while still have to pay loans and leasings. 2b) EU airlines could reduce traffic because of that since less passengers will be travelling therefore it's completely pointless to book right now..


I wonder how the yield management strategy will play out. Less demand normally translates into lower yields, but depending on how bad it gets, airlines may raise fares to milk those passengers who have sufficient incentive to fly despite a risk to their health (if any).
In China, this is what's happening for now, capacity is down and fares seem to be up, not down.

Will airlines maintain frequencies with smaller and smaller aircraft or park and store their high lease cost aircraft (B787/A350/B777/A320neo), suspend lease payments and consolidate flights onto lower capital cost aircraft? It makes sense to operate fuel guzzlers (low oil prices) and maintenance intensive aircraft now (to keep the MX staff busy), and spare the newer aircraft until things start getting better.


Going back to my original question - are intra-EU and NA-EU flights currently showing a noticeable decline from last year?

If so, I'm ready for 2021 already :faint:

BTW - regarding the fleet impact, this is why I say watch the Big 2 Japanese 767 fleets. Both are fleets are young (most built 2000-2013), but the 1982 EIS means they will be retired before any 30 year old A320's or 23 year old 777's. What a waste... I hope that doctor who tried to raise the alarm will at least be Time's Man of the Year.


My former colleagues are saying that the "business on the books" is already showing a decline for the summer according to some managers.
It's not clear how much of it is from declining bookings intra-EU and how much from loss of business EU-Asia, but it seems to go beyond just pax connecting on Asian flights.
We have to remember that European airlines als act as codeshare partners for many Asian airlines, so many seats are occupied with connecting passengers.
Unfortunately, I can't post actual numbers as it's confidential, plus only management staff are supposed to have access to it so I can't verify them myself.
It looks like managements are preparing the unions for a temporary downsizing.

I'm myself holding off booking a TATL itinerary for May/June.
In 3-4 months, a lot can happen.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9739
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:59 am

So a question, is it safer to transport infected people in an aircraft with 250+ versus 100?
The cruise ship quarantined in Japan has an increasing number of infected person, not sure if they know whether they were infected on the ship or not. Infected person in a French ski lodge, rather than worrying about reducing frequencies to China airlines may be hit with folks just staying home and abandoning all travel, just to be safe.
 
User avatar
ojjunior
Posts: 869
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:31 am

Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:14 am

RvA wrote:
I’d love to see a thread on what airlines are doing with the spare aircraft. I’ve seen LX A343 appear on ZRH-ATH a few times in the next couple of weeks.


Well, looks like the effects can be seen already in the US.
DL105 ATL-GRU has just departed with a 77L instead of the usual A333.
Might be a one-off but still...

DL105 from Atlanta to Sao Paulo https://fr24.com/DAL105/23cdf12b

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