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AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:03 pm

Congrats to my co-workers on a great 2019!

Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) today reported fourth quarter 2019 GAAP net income of $181 million, or $1.46 per diluted share, compared to $23 million, or $0.19 per diluted share in 2018. Excluding the impact of merger-related costs and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, the company reported fourth quarter adjusted net income of $181 million, or $1.46 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $93 million, or $0.75 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The company reported full-year 2019 GAAP net income of $769 million, compared to $437 million in the prior year. Excluding the impact of merger-related costs and mark-to-market fuel hedge adjustments, the company reported adjusted net income of $798 million, or $6.42 per diluted share for 2019, compared to adjusted net income of $554 million, or $4.46 per diluted share in 2018


A big takeaway from the earnings call is the future plan for the fleet, calling for the replacement of 61 A319 and A320 aircraft with either B737 MAX 9 and MAX 10 aircraft, A321NEO aircraft, or a combination thereof. A decision should be made by late 3Q20 or early 4Q20.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:57 pm

EA CO AS wrote:

A big takeaway from the earnings call is the future plan for the fleet, calling for the replacement of 61 A319 and A320 aircraft with either B737 MAX 9 and MAX 10 aircraft, A321NEO aircraft, or a combination thereof. A decision should be made by late 3Q20 or early 4Q20.


That does continue the U.S. industry trend of upgauging narrowbodies. ALK does like a young fleet.

Decent margins for the quarter and the year.
 
tphuang
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:02 pm

If you look at their numbers here last year, this was a great quarter. Alaska normally doesn't do as well in q4 as q3, so this is a great sign for them.

Their fleet plans would be interesting. Does the max issues in the past linger into their fleet planning.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:53 pm

I think they'll be using these next few months of the continued grounding of the MAX to watch and see what happens. The visual would not be good to order more airframes of a plane that is in deep trouble in the public's eyes. Meanwhile, AB is likely getting top dollar for the 321neo so if watching their budget the better deal would be for the MAX. It's a big risk right now and obviously they're not prepared to take one without some certainty that the MAX will not be shunned by the traveling public. AS loves new airframes...they haven't gone out in the used market for at least a dozen years and apparently that isn't an option they're entertaining. Maybe it should be if they want to grow before this all settles out?
 
jbpdx
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:02 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
A big takeaway from the earnings call is the future plan for the fleet, calling for the replacement of 61 A319 and A320 aircraft with either B737 MAX 9 and MAX 10 aircraft, A321NEO aircraft, or a combination thereof. A decision should be made by late 3Q20 or early 4Q20.

I better start using up all my miles.
^
 
Detroit313
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:19 pm

So the argument on this forum that getting rid of individual screens on all airplanes has negative effects is invalid.

Very soon Alaska won't have a single plane with screens on them and look how great their numbers are.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:42 pm

tphuang wrote:
Their fleet plans would be interesting. Does the max issues in the past linger into their fleet planning.


Keep in mind that after the acquisition of VX, the goal was to have a fleet decision made in around 18 months. We're nearly 4 years removed from the announcement that VX was being purchased, and there's still no decision, other than returning the A319s and A320s as the leases expire, although Brad stated on the earnings call that some leases could be extended if the MAX issues continue and impact the ten added frames expected to join the fleet this year. I think there are two things that have prolonged the planning process:

o Guests and crews are loving the A321NEO far more than anticipated
o The MAX issues are a question mark

I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:08 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Keep in mind that after the acquisition of VX, the goal was to have a fleet decision made in around 18 months. We're nearly 4 years removed from the announcement that VX was being purchased, and there's still no decision, other than returning the A319s and A320s as the leases expire, although Brad stated on the earnings call that some leases could be extended if the MAX issues continue and impact the ten added frames expected to join the fleet this year. I think there are two things that have prolonged the planning process:

o Guests and crews are loving the A321NEO far more than anticipated
o The MAX issues are a question mark

I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.


Interesting. Then it seems to me if the MAX 10 is out of the running, it makes more sense to either go entirely A321NEO or do a split MAX 9/A321NEO order to cover all bases.
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:00 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Their fleet plans would be interesting. Does the max issues in the past linger into their fleet planning.


Keep in mind that after the acquisition of VX, the goal was to have a fleet decision made in around 18 months. We're nearly 4 years removed from the announcement that VX was being purchased, and there's still no decision, other than returning the A319s and A320s as the leases expire, although Brad stated on the earnings call that some leases could be extended if the MAX issues continue and impact the ten added frames expected to join the fleet this year. I think there are two things that have prolonged the planning process:

o Guests and crews are loving the A321NEO far more than anticipated
o The MAX issues are a question mark

I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.

That's interesting about the MAX 10. I figured they'd be more interested in those than the 9s. Shows what I know. It seems like no matter how good of offer Boeing makes AS for more MAXs, it won't be enough to keep them as an exclusive 737 operator.

How many A321s would AS need to order to make having the different fleets worthwhile? They have the 10 NEO slots, which I'm assuming Airbus would let them upgrade to 321s. Would 20 be enough to justify the added complexity, or do you think they would push to increase that fleet to 30, 40, 50, or even higher?
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:27 pm

msp747 wrote:
[That's interesting about the MAX 10. I figured they'd be more interested in those than the 9s. Shows what I know. It seems like no matter how good of offer Boeing makes AS for more MAXs, it won't be enough to keep them as an exclusive 737 operator.


What I've heard more often than not is "Boeing just needs to get around to offering us a whole new airplane."
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tphuang
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:01 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
msp747 wrote:
[That's interesting about the MAX 10. I figured they'd be more interested in those than the 9s. Shows what I know. It seems like no matter how good of offer Boeing makes AS for more MAXs, it won't be enough to keep them as an exclusive 737 operator.


What I've heard more often than not is "Boeing just needs to get around to offering us a whole new airplane."

That would see unlikely to happen anytime soon given the new CEO comments.
 
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msp747
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
msp747 wrote:
[That's interesting about the MAX 10. I figured they'd be more interested in those than the 9s. Shows what I know. It seems like no matter how good of offer Boeing makes AS for more MAXs, it won't be enough to keep them as an exclusive 737 operator.


What I've heard more often than not is "Boeing just needs to get around to offering us a whole new airplane."

That would see unlikely to happen anytime soon given the new CEO comments.

Yeah, that's at least a couple of years off. I think the best-case scenario for Boeing now is that AS splits the order, which seems probable, but it's definitely not what they had in mind when the merger first happened.
 
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usxguy
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:15 pm

Anyone know the value of the deposits put on the Airbii ordered by VX?
xx
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:15 pm

usxguy wrote:
Anyone know the value of the deposits put on the Airbii ordered by VX?


Yes but I can't share it.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
gmcc
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:20 pm

msp747 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Their fleet plans would be interesting. Does the max issues in the past linger into their fleet planning.


Keep in mind that after the acquisition of VX, the goal was to have a fleet decision made in around 18 months. We're nearly 4 years removed from the announcement that VX was being purchased, and there's still no decision, other than returning the A319s and A320s as the leases expire, although Brad stated on the earnings call that some leases could be extended if the MAX issues continue and impact the ten added frames expected to join the fleet this year. I think there are two things that have prolonged the planning process:

o Guests and crews are loving the A321NEO far more than anticipated
o The MAX issues are a question mark

I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.

That's interesting about the MAX 10. I figured they'd be more interested in those than the 9s. Shows what I know. It seems like no matter how good of offer Boeing makes AS for more MAXs, it won't be enough to keep them as an exclusive 737 operator.

How many A321s would AS need to order to make having the different fleets worthwhile? They have the 10 NEO slots, which I'm assuming Airbus would let them upgrade to 321s. Would 20 be enough to justify the added complexity, or do you think they would push to increase that fleet to 30, 40, 50, or even higher?


I think they have 30 320 NEO on order that they keep deferring so those if converted to 321 could almost be brought in as a 1-1 replacement for the MAX 9s. With the upgauge the gap in aircraft size from the E175 to the MAX will also need to be addressed once the 800s start to time out.
 
scoping2008
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:21 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.


Agree. Even the most pro-Boeing employees have come around to acknowledge what a fantastic aircraft the A321NEO is.
 
Runway28L
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:41 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
A big takeaway from the earnings call is the future plan for the fleet, calling for the replacement of 61 A319 and A320 aircraft with either B737 MAX 9 and MAX 10 aircraft, A321NEO aircraft, or a combination thereof. A decision should be made by late 3Q20 or early 4Q20.

The average age of the A319 fleet is 12.3 years old and the A320 fleet is 9.3 years old according to Planespotters.net. Some of the A320s are very young too (12 delivered 2013-2016).

It should be interesting to see if any carriers show interest in picking up these aircraft as they come off lease. There was speculation that AA was looking at acquiring some of the A319s not long ago. I wouldn't be surprised if G4 and UA would also be interested.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:19 am

Planespotters shows the 319/320 fleet leased from ~ a dozen firms. That's going to make it difficult to put together a deal for any meaningful quantity. The 320s should find new homes readily.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:07 am

EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:45 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
gmcc
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:03 am

EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?
m

Give the conservative/risk adverse natural of the current management I would expect West coast to the rest of the L48 to be the main push for quite some time. They definitely wouldn't do something that might hinder the fortress balance sheet.
 
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DBCoop3r
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:31 am

EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?

Along with Mexico and Canada... Absolutely. They are quite happy to feed every and all international carriers to the west coast and that stategy is proving quite fruitful.

Are you suggesting they will buy 321XLRs? They can't. It isn't a TPAC plane not a west coast to Europe plane. They may well order more 321neos, but MAX10s are cheaper, more readily available, and slightly more efficient for any mission they'd use it for.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:34 am

EA CO AS wrote:
You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


I'll be shocked if AS ever does anything other than what they're doing now. The only way they'll futher expand internationally is if they buy B6. They have no need for longer range aircraft because they'll never fly routes any further than the current ones. What are the options? San Salvador? Panama City? Won't happen. AS is completely pigeon-holed and any future growth will be in the lower 48 and likely out of PDX, SFO, SJC, LAX and SAN.
 
dmorbust
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:45 am

EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


Yes. Do tell, where do you predict they will go? Narita? London? Bogota?
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:01 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?

Along with Mexico and Canada... Absolutely. They are quite happy to feed every and all international carriers to the west coast and that stategy is proving quite fruitful.

Are you suggesting they will buy 321XLRs? They can't. It isn't a TPAC plane not a west coast to Europe plane. They may well order more 321neos, but MAX10s are cheaper, more readily available, and slightly more efficient for any mission they'd use it for.


MAX10's are:

Cheaper - absolutely and they will continue to be so;
Readily Available - No because it isn't flying.
Slightly more efficient - No because it isn't flying.

AS won't buy the A321XLR but they'd be nuts not to convert the current NEO orders into A321NEO's and use them.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:08 am

Detroit313 wrote:
So the argument on this forum that getting rid of individual screens on all airplanes has negative effects is invalid.

Very soon Alaska won't have a single plane with screens on them and look how great their numbers are.


On this board everyone claims the "screen on every seat" vs "streaming to your own device" argument is settled based on what their favorite carrier does.

In reality having a screen at every seat sounds better than it is because they are not always reliable, no fleet has them completely installed, and by the time they're installed they're often obsolete.

Either way on the ten most important things a consumer looks at when choosing a trip, screen vs. streaming ranks about #138.
 
SocalApproach
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:09 am

EA CO AS wrote:
You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


I certainly do. The product isn’t competitive outside of the PNW. They have already shown that they bought an airline for no reason. A lot of us thought it was to keep B6 off the west coast. However go back and read a lot of those older threads and a lot of AS fanboys argued it was because AS wanted to be a national player and if I recall I want to say you were one of those people. Fast forward to now, AS mainline fleet is shrinking while the regional fleet keeps increasing and the company appears to be retreating back to Seattle. AS can board more and more flights at hard stands all they want to but the airport is maxed out and there is nowhere else to go. Meanwhile it looks like the answer AS has to California is more RJ flying. I chuckle at the notions on who AS will acquire next (B6/SY...) my personal opinion is it’s the other way around. I have a feeling we may be calling you EA CO AS WN one day. :stirthepot: However this is a “profitable” announcement thread so It’s the wrong time and place for that kind of speculation. Having said that, I’ll eat crow on my opinion....for now.
Last edited by SocalApproach on Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:17 am

SocalApproach wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


I certainly do. The product isn’t competitive outside of the PNW. They have already shown that they bought an airline for no reason. A lot of us thought it was to keep B6 off the west coast. However go back and read a lot of those older threads and a lot of AS fanboys argued it was because AS wanted to be a national player and if I recall I want to say you were one of those people. Fast forward to now, AS mainline fleet is shrinking while the regional fleet keeps increasing and the company appears to be retreating back to Seattle. AS can board more and more flights at hard stands all they want to but the airport is maxed out and there is nowhere else to go. Meanwhile it looks like the answer AS has to California is more RJ flying. I chuckle at the notions on who AS will acquire next (B6/SY...) my personal opinion is it’s the other way around. It’s the wrong time and place for that now so I’ll eat crow on my opinion....for now.


Can’t wait for Sun Country to buy Alaska.

Most hilarious thing I’ve seen on here. Thanks for the laugh.
 
SocalApproach
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:33 am

LAXBUR wrote:

Can’t wait for Sun Country to buy Alaska.

Most hilarious thing I’ve seen on here. Thanks for the laugh.


I never said Sun Country would buy Alaska. But I’ll laugh with you because that sounds ridiculous
 
tiptoe42
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:55 am

EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations

The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?



Yes, as you know Alaska has no need to do anything different, they prefer to outsource that flying through codeshare agreements. Having said that, given their desire to have the option to create an alter ego airline as presented during scope negotiations with the pilot union, perhaps they would like to use that as an avenue to diversifying their mission. All part of “doing the right thing” for their employees.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:54 am

dmorbust wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The MAX10 can comfortably cover SEA to MIA/FLL... AS has absolutely no need for any more range than that. If they do a MAX8 would cover it.


You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


Yes. Do tell, where do you predict they will go? Narita? London? Bogota?


That's a really good question. I'll challenge EA CO AS to list plausible routes (given AS' hub structure and current competition) where AS would use 20 frames year-round to justify a subfleet or new type (name that frame!), all beyond the range of MAX 8/9/10 today. I don't see it. If they didn't want DL in the proverbial SEA back yard they can't compete against BA to LHR, KE to ICN, JAL to TYO, etc., that provide their intercon lift today.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:29 pm

Once the Grounding is lifted from the MAX debacle Boeing is going to discount it's troublesome MAX line to it's biggest customers to drum up orders.
AS will definitely be making a big order to replace the Airbus aircraft.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
gmcc
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:40 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Once the Grounding is lifted from the MAX debacle Boeing is going to discount it's troublesome MAX line to it's biggest customers to drum up orders.
AS will definitely be making a big order to replace the Airbus aircraft.

Flyguy


With only 32 on order plus 37 options and the potential for only a couple hundred at most I wouldn't say AS is one of their biggest customers. Maybe their most visible in the Puget Sound and one they need from a PR standpoint.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:05 pm

SocalApproach wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
You honestly think AS only plans on sticking with SEA-L48/AK/HI missions going forward?


I certainly do.


You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Let's just say that time will tell and leave it at that.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:38 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
I'll challenge EA CO AS to list plausible routes (given AS' hub structure and current competition) where AS would use 20 frames year-round to justify a subfleet or new type...


It is worth remembering that last minute change orders in the design in the ANC hanger allow it to maintain 2 A321 aircraft simultaneously.

A part of dealing with SEA congestion may be bypassing SEA for some flights out of Alaska.
 
tphuang
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:43 pm

We talked about this many times before, anc to Asia is a terrible idea.

Basically, as current network only makes sense to go tpac if they want to expand past their current footprint. Tpac is about the most bloody market out there. As management has shown itself to make a lot of conservative but wise decision in the past couple of years. It knows where it can make money and where it can't. Apparently, it's fans on this forum have a lot higher ambitions.
 
capitalflyer
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:50 pm

AS has plenty of room for growth if they want it in the lower 48. They are fairly dominate in the west, but have less presence the further east you go. However they seem to be in many of the biggest markets already. Two that stand out that could be new destinations are Louisville and Dulles. I realize they already fly to DCA, but given the growth of Amazon and no available out of perimeter slots, IAD would be a great alternative to add a couple IAD-SEA transcons.
 
FSDan
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:01 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
AS has plenty of room for growth if they want it in the lower 48. They are fairly dominate in the west, but have less presence the further east you go. However they seem to be in many of the biggest markets already. Two that stand out that could be new destinations are Louisville and Dulles. I realize they already fly to DCA, but given the growth of Amazon and no available out of perimeter slots, IAD would be a great alternative to add a couple IAD-SEA transcons.


AS has flown to IAD for years.
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:31 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
AS has plenty of room for growth if they want it in the lower 48. They are fairly dominate in the west, but have less presence the further east you go. However they seem to be in many of the biggest markets already. Two that stand out that could be new destinations are Louisville and Dulles. I realize they already fly to DCA, but given the growth of Amazon and no available out of perimeter slots, IAD would be a great alternative to add a couple IAD-SEA transcons.


AS flies to IAD. Louisville is smaller than other destinations that would require a mainline aircraft than other recent SEA mainline adds like PIT and CMH. It’s too long of a route to use an E175 on. Things like CHS are helped out by other ties. CLT is notable, but is already dominated by AA. ORF area is bigger than Louisville and has military ties to Puget Sound, but I think AS has already expanded into a lot of the logical destinations on the east coast.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:06 am

tphuang wrote:
We talked about this many times before, anc to Asia is a terrible idea.

Indeed, but a boy can still dream of a non-stop to Disney World.
 
n7371f
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:45 am

Since the author, who is immensely sensitive to anything critical of AS, keeps getting my posts deleted - I'll write what I posted last night, again:

Good numbers.

You mean the Proudly All Boeing is Goeing? One of the dumbest things with AS since the merger (since it's not true).

The A21N kicks the MAX9's rear. But as UA believes and will show, the MAX10 is a terrific aircraft for CONTUS routes which all fall within AS' network right now.

Choosing Airbus would be a bombastic move for AS and it's SEA-centric culture as AS has branded itself for decades as the most perfect SEA-values based company. Buying a European jet takes that to shame...whether you like it or not. Granted SEA has changed radically last 10-20 years but AS still tries to sell itself as Seattle's airline.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:09 am

n7371f wrote:
Since the author, who is immensely sensitive to anything critical of AS, keeps getting my posts deleted - I'll write what I posted last night, again:

Good numbers.


Thanks for the comment on the numbers. Now I know this may come as quite a shock to you, but believe it or not, I don’t have time to monitor the things you post, nor would I want to. I don’t know what you posted previously but I had nothing to do with anything you wrote being deleted. The only time I’ve ever critiqued what anyone says is when it turns into personal attacks.

And I’ll be the first to agree that the A321NEO is a superior airplane, at least in its present form. Not sure what the 7M9 or 7MX would be like in the AS fleet, but I know how the A321NEO does, and wouldn’t mind seeing a fleet replacement plan that involved a ton of them.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:55 pm

capitalflyer wrote:
AS has plenty of room for growth if they want it in the lower 48. They are fairly dominate in the west, but have less presence the further east you go. However they seem to be in many of the biggest markets already. Two that stand out that could be new destinations are Louisville and Dulles. I realize they already fly to DCA, but given the growth of Amazon and no available out of perimeter slots, IAD would be a great alternative to add a couple IAD-SEA transcons.


As far as the east and Midwest, AS has already “been there, done that” and pulled back. Do we think they will repeat a strategy that has already been tried and didn’t seem to work?

The trend in the airline industry seems to be away from building new hubs, and instead are going for more point-to-point routes. Add in the context that AS tried going nationwide, pulled back, and added several p2p routes in the west. There seems to be every indication that p2p mostly in the west and p2p to/from SEA is what AS plans for the foreseeable future. What else do we think AS might do aside from those two strategies?
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:19 am

AS may have tried expanding prematurely from SFO/LAX soon after Virgin purchase; it did not help that Virgin’s product no longer stood out on cross-country routes. Repurposing Virgin planes/gates along W Coast certainly seems to have paid off!

E175’s - Small markets from SEA/SAN; smaller Pacific NW markets to SFO/LAX.
More cross-country from the 4-5 CA markets once the NEO’s/MAX come in.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:16 pm

Please keep this thread on topic. Feel free to open a sparate thread for discussing IFE options etc.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:52 pm

I just got a notification on Facebook about AS and QX hiring. Apparently they intend to hire over 500 Horizon ground agents, and 200 Customer service agents? Is Horizon planning a major expansion? Or, will Horizon be taking over some ground handling in other stations?

How is McGee doing? Are they making progress? I know they had a few hiccups here and there.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:54 pm

I think the merits of the A321neo in the AS network are overrated. Outside of DCA, the -900ER can usually do everything the A321neo can with 12 fewer pax and a lot less weight. The MAX 9/10 will narrow the performance gaps. The A320 reliability at AS is still below the 737 and operational excellence and simplicity is very important.

I would bet AS busy more MAX and eventually exits the A321neos by the end of the leases. Or, they work a deal with GECAS to replace with MAX. Who know.
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:51 pm

Hey everyone, could we please move all this general discussion of AAG and its future and fleet planning, etc. to the AS Thread? We are way beyond the subject of this thread.

Link: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437885 ("Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020")

I don't know why people don't seem to want to use the appropriate general discussion thread... We might even get more participants there.

bb
 
williaminsd
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:52 pm

OA412 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
Keep in mind that after the acquisition of VX, the goal was to have a fleet decision made in around 18 months. We're nearly 4 years removed from the announcement that VX was being purchased, and there's still no decision, other than returning the A319s and A320s as the leases expire, although Brad stated on the earnings call that some leases could be extended if the MAX issues continue and impact the ten added frames expected to join the fleet this year. I think there are two things that have prolonged the planning process:

o Guests and crews are loving the A321NEO far more than anticipated
o The MAX issues are a question mark

I think the MAX 10 is probably out of the running due to the range limitations, but the A321NEO is quickly becoming the darling of the fleet from everything I'm hearing.


Interesting. Then it seems to me if the MAX 10 is out of the running, it makes more sense to either go entirely A321NEO or do a split MAX 9/A321NEO order to cover all bases.


Congratulations to the entire Alaska team for these sterling results. As an Alaska Gold, I specifically seek-out the A321. It is by far the best in Alaska's fleet. This pains me to say, as I have been a Boeing man for decades, but its product seems old, tired, blundering, obsolete and, as we know, dangerous. What senior management has done to this American icon over the last decade is unforgivable, particularly now with a booming economy and affordable energy costs. In this environment, AB is perfectly positioned to capture market share for a decade or more. My guess is a limited A321 order and more E175s (present Max orders remain) to give Boeing the 5-7 years to get their you know what together. The next Boeing product has to not only start with "clean sheet of paper," but has to be revolutionary in terms of speed and efficiency. Another 737 retread just won't cut it. Alaska's management is sharp and nimble. They consistently over perform despite the naysayers wishful thinking. I expect the discussions with Boeing to be blunt. "We have an attractive option. If you can't perform, we will take it." Boeing has no one to blame but themselves...
 
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Re: AS/AAG posts 4Q and FY2019 earnings

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:22 am

Word quickly coming out of the AS Seattle campus that ~100 people are being let go from Corporate. Shame all around...
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”

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