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Dalight
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Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:30 am

Yesterday on an Airport smoking room heard a former pilot of Etihad explaining that the Airline made a loss of over 2 Billion and the fleet is going to be reduced from actual 125 Airframes to 82.

Also in the same conversation he explained that several long haul pilots are getting fired.

My question is how this will affect the Airlines in the region and if Emirates or Qatar Airways are going in the same path.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:33 am

As long as they have a couple of oil wells to back up their decisions, they'll still be afloat.
Vahroone
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:34 am

In a region filled with overcapacity those with benefactors who have the continued desire to pump billions into their airlines will survive.
IIRC the EY pilot firings have already started.
 
716131
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:30 am

Dalight wrote:
Yesterday on an Airport smoking room heard a former pilot of Etihad explaining that the Airline made a loss of over 2 Billion and the fleet is going to be reduced from actual 125 Airframes to 82.

Also in the same conversation he explained that several long haul pilots are getting fired.

My question is how this will affect the Airlines in the region and if Emirates or Qatar Airways are going in the same path.

Do you have the source? If not then how u know it?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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Antaras
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:57 am

SQ789 wrote:
Dalight wrote:
Yesterday on an Airport smoking room heard a former pilot of Etihad explaining that the Airline made a loss of over 2 Billion and the fleet is going to be reduced from actual 125 Airframes to 82.

Also in the same conversation he explained that several long haul pilots are getting fired.

My question is how this will affect the Airlines in the region and if Emirates or Qatar Airways are going in the same path.

Do you have the source? If not then how u know it?

He heard it :D
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randomdude83
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:02 pm

Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.
 
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Polot
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:06 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.

That’s basically EY’s long term plan (well, + a handful of 777Xs for now). The A330s and A380s are not sticking around. If finances improve the 77Ws will be leaving too but right now they are sticking around because EY can’t afford to bring in a bunch of A350s.
 
xwb777
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:18 pm

Etihad will be fine. Due their circumstances, they are currently right sizing to cope with their business environment.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:05 pm

Polot wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.

That’s basically EY’s long term plan (well, + a handful of 777Xs for now). The A330s and A380s are not sticking around. If finances improve the 77Ws will be leaving too but right now they are sticking around because EY can’t afford to bring in a bunch of A350s.


I wonder how much they have actually paid to Airbus for the 5 x A350s sitting around in France?

There were so many rumors about EY about their orders it's difficult to know what to believe. A lot of their 332s are quite young, why they're getting rid of them I have no clue. Unless they're leased so EY is returning them?
 
Blerg
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:19 pm

Etihad's future is not what interests me but rather what will become of the EY partnership with Air Arabia.
 
xwb777
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:22 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.

That’s basically EY’s long term plan (well, + a handful of 777Xs for now). The A330s and A380s are not sticking around. If finances improve the 77Ws will be leaving too but right now they are sticking around because EY can’t afford to bring in a bunch of A350s.


I wonder how much they have actually paid to Airbus for the 5 x A350s sitting around in France?

There were so many rumors about EY about their orders it's difficult to know what to believe. A lot of their 332s are quite young, why they're getting rid of them I have no clue. Unless they're leased so EY is returning them?


They are replacing the A330s with B787s. The A350s are due to enter the fleet in 2021.
 
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Polot
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:27 pm

Polot wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.

That’s basically EY’s long term plan (well, + a handful of 777Xs for now). The A330s and A380s are not sticking around. If finances improve the 77Ws will be leaving too but right now they are sticking around because EY can’t afford to bring in a bunch of A350s.

They are fairly young, but except for the first batch of 5 77Ws they are among the oldest planes in the fleet. :shrug: Getting rid of them allows EY to eliminate a fleet type, and they have plenty of 787s with similar capacity to take over coming in.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:48 pm

Polot wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
Reducing the current fleet to 82...with 82 more orders coming in?!

They’d have to cancel quite a bit on top of what was cancelled and then retire all 777 and a330 and a380s

And just be 787/a350/a320 fleet. Not bad but it’d cost more to be like that for sure.

That’s basically EY’s long term plan (well, + a handful of 777Xs for now). The A330s and A380s are not sticking around. If finances improve the 77Ws will be leaving too but right now they are sticking around because EY can’t afford to bring in a bunch of A350s.

For every A321neo coming in at least one the A32x ceo will be retired I suppose. 5x A35k and 6x 777-9 will come, others on order probably deferred until further notice. At least 2x 787-10 will come this year but I suppose a large part of the remaining 787s on order will probably also be deferred until further notice. No idea if EY will keep their freighters. If not, a reduction of their fleet to about 82 is a possibility. But I guess it's worst case scenario.
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amdiesen
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:42 pm

Covid is an impetus that could re-ignite talks between Emirates and Etihad with the objective of combining the airlines. Intra-country and business aviation should revive more quickly than international consumer. Thoughts?
 
moa999
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:37 am

amdiesen wrote:
Covid is an impetus that could re-ignite talks between Emirates and Etihad with the objective of combining the airlines. ?


All the same issues remain.

Biggest issue for all the oil states is with the oil price where it is, not much money is coming in
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:45 am

With super cheap oil, will Abu Dhabi really want to continue subsidising Etihad, or will they finally see sense and merge Etihad with Emirates ? There is after all only so much pain they can take before someone decides to swallow a bit of pride
 
oceanvikram
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:22 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
With super cheap oil, will Abu Dhabi really want to continue subsidising Etihad, or will they finally see sense and merge Etihad with Emirates ? There is after all only so much pain they can take before someone decides to swallow a bit of pride

Swallowing ones pride means they have lost respect and strength. It’s a cultural thing.

I think it would Emirates that will get swallowed up by Etihad. At least Abu Dhabi has oil and with pandemic or no pandemic, oil is needed by the global economy no matter what the price.

Dubai on the other hand has not much industries that are required during any pandemic.

The interesting thing to see is how the Emiraties will fair if all the expats leave due to CONVID-19. I have personally have never met an Emirati nurse. Most likely some of the expats are not allowed to leave.
My comments are based as an aviation enthusiast first, then as a passenger who paid for his own ticket, after that a passenger on a business trip and finally an armchair CEO.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:12 am

All airlines will contract. Sadly, I do not think the level of contraction is sufficient for EY.

The reality is other economies will have shrunk from January to when we get out of this Covid19. This isn't SARS which impacted a small region that back then was a small part of the global economy. This isn't 9/11 which was one country for 4 days. This is a credit bubble popped by a pandemic.

Spiderguy252 wrote:
As long as they have a couple of oil wells to back up their decisions, they'll still be afloat.

Have you seen the price of oil? How much money do you think it takes to run the non-Etihad portion of Abu-Dhabi?

amdiesen wrote:
Covid is an impetus that could re-ignite talks between Emirates and Etihad with the objective of combining the airlines. Intra-country and business aviation should revive more quickly than international consumer. Thoughts?

That unfortunately would require a tremendous amount of money to build up DWC and somehow span the two Emirates.

A merger would be best. But how? Due to bilaterals, EY must fly from Abu Dhabi and EK from Dubai. It will take years to untangle bilaterals and some parties just wouldn't play nice.

I'm not sure of the best strategy as this is a deep hole to climb out of.


Lightsaber
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
All airlines will contract. Sadly, I do not think the level of contraction is sufficient for EY.

The reality is other economies will have shrunk from January to when we get out of this Covid19. This isn't SARS which impacted a small region that back then was a small part of the global economy. This isn't 9/11 which was one country for 4 days. This is a credit bubble popped by a pandemic.

Spiderguy252 wrote:
As long as they have a couple of oil wells to back up their decisions, they'll still be afloat.

Have you seen the price of oil? How much money do you think it takes to run the non-Etihad portion of Abu-Dhabi?

amdiesen wrote:
Covid is an impetus that could re-ignite talks between Emirates and Etihad with the objective of combining the airlines. Intra-country and business aviation should revive more quickly than international consumer. Thoughts?

That unfortunately would require a tremendous amount of money to build up DWC and somehow span the two Emirates.

A merger would be best. But how? Due to bilaterals, EY must fly from Abu Dhabi and EK from Dubai. It will take years to untangle bilaterals and some parties just wouldn't play nice.

I'm not sure of the best strategy as this is a deep hole to climb out of.


Lightsaber


DWC won't be completed in foreseeable future, so flying from both Abu Dhabi and Dubai is not a huge problem.
After the combination (by whatever way), EY can become a virtual airline with no/ minimum staff and planes.
All EY fights can be operated by EK's wetlease so no more competition between EY and EK.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 453
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:30 am

lightsaber wrote:
All airlines will contract. Sadly, I do not think the level of contraction is sufficient for EY.

The reality is other economies will have shrunk from January to when we get out of this Covid19. This isn't SARS which impacted a small region that back then was a small part of the global economy. This isn't 9/11 which was one country for 4 days. This is a credit bubble popped by a pandemic.

Spiderguy252 wrote:
As long as they have a couple of oil wells to back up their decisions, they'll still be afloat.

Have you seen the price of oil? How much money do you think it takes to run the non-Etihad portion of Abu-Dhabi?

amdiesen wrote:
Covid is an impetus that could re-ignite talks between Emirates and Etihad with the objective of combining the airlines. Intra-country and business aviation should revive more quickly than international consumer. Thoughts?

That unfortunately would require a tremendous amount of money to build up DWC and somehow span the two Emirates.

A merger would be best. But how? Due to bilaterals, EY must fly from Abu Dhabi and EK from Dubai. It will take years to untangle bilaterals and some parties just wouldn't play nice.

I'm not sure of the best strategy as this is a deep hole to climb out of.


Lightsaber


Doesn't the UAE have an Open Skies agreement with many countries?

As it is, EK will receive support from the Dubai government.


https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/e ... 43.article
 
A330Inter
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:48 am

Great opportunity indeed to reduce the un-necessary competition between the two:

1/ Merge MRO facilities under one umbrella
2/ Keep 5x A380 to operate 2x LHR, 1x JFK - Ground the rest or hand over to EK
3/ Also give to EK the 777-300ER fleet, they can use it better
4/ Keep the 30-40 best long-haul routes out of Abu Dhabi to operate with 787-9 / 787-10, mostly single Daily
5/ Leave the bulk of connecting traffic to EK
6/ Get rid of the narrow-body fleet and leave it to Air Arabia AUH in full Economy layout

Rest drives to Dubai to fly
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:12 pm

I don't think Etihad will ever be shut down or merged into Emirates. Although we think of the UAE as one country, they are actually a federation of separate kingdoms with their own rulers. The ruler of Abu Dhabi isn't going to want to give up all of the prestige, connectivity and associated goodies to Dubai, especially as he's the one with most of the oil. They already built a huge new airport in Abu Dhabi and they won't want to leave it empty. There are also a lot of other projects in Abu Dhabi such as marinas, the Ferrari theme park, luxury hotel resorts and so on that depend on the airline. It's not like in Europe or the USA where airlines are considered expendable businesses and governments don't care whether a particular airline lives or dies.

Maybe they will change the business model to try to make it more profitable but they are looking at the airline based on how it benefits the emirate of Abu Dhabi as a whole, not just whether or not it makes money as a standalone business.
 
A330Inter
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Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:59 pm

Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:53 pm

Correct but it also doesn't need to lose 1bn a year.
Stop the connecting crap, EK does it much better, reduce the fleet and serve the local market. Marinas and Theme parks don't live off the passengers traveling from America/Europe to Asia/Pacific
 
transportgeek
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:04 pm

A330Inter wrote:
Correct but it also doesn't need to lose 1bn a year.
Stop the connecting crap, EK does it much better, reduce the fleet and serve the local market. Marinas and Theme parks don't live off the passengers traveling from America/Europe to Asia/Pacific


Except the local market at AUH is tiny. Passenger numbers for local traffic in 2019 were on par with places like Milwaukee (MKE), Christchurch (CHC) and Durban (DUR). If you just focus on local traffic you May as well get rid of the wide body fleet and focus just on regional flying around the Middle East.
 
A330Inter
Posts: 46
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:14 pm

transportgeek wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Correct but it also doesn't need to lose 1bn a year.
Stop the connecting crap, EK does it much better, reduce the fleet and serve the local market. Marinas and Theme parks don't live off the passengers traveling from America/Europe to Asia/Pacific


Except the local market at AUH is tiny. Passenger numbers for local traffic in 2019 were on par with places like Milwaukee (MKE), Christchurch (CHC) and Durban (DUR). If you just focus on local traffic you May as well get rid of the wide body fleet and focus just on regional flying around the Middle East.


If they want to make money or let's say just self sustain, a smaller fleet is probably required, absolutely.
But local traffic is not just regional, indeed let it be flown on Air Arabia type of airline, to India, GCC, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt.
I think a large proportion of (the small) AUH traffic though is long-haul, their 787 fleet is well sized to serve the major European and Asian capitals once a day, no more. But I don't think they need 2 daily Frankfurt, Manchester, Rome, and so on, to feed Bangkok, Phuket, Sydney and Melbourne.
 
myki
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:25 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
I don't think Etihad will ever be shut down or merged into Emirates.

Correct. Keep separate brands, different markets. Think Proctor and Gamble who own the Head and Shoulders shampoo brand, along with Pantene shampoo brand. Back of house, all the same.

Closer to aviation, you have:
Singapore Airlines, Silk Air and Scoot
Qantas and Jetstar
etc.

And for EK/EY, who says it isn't happening already? For example: https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/ ... 1.61229737
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad Airways Future

Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:43 pm

A330Inter wrote:
transportgeek wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Correct but it also doesn't need to lose 1bn a year.
Stop the connecting crap, EK does it much better, reduce the fleet and serve the local market. Marinas and Theme parks don't live off the passengers traveling from America/Europe to Asia/Pacific


Except the local market at AUH is tiny. Passenger numbers for local traffic in 2019 were on par with places like Milwaukee (MKE), Christchurch (CHC) and Durban (DUR). If you just focus on local traffic you May as well get rid of the wide body fleet and focus just on regional flying around the Middle East.


If they want to make money or let's say just self sustain, a smaller fleet is probably required, absolutely.
But local traffic is not just regional, indeed let it be flown on Air Arabia type of airline, to India, GCC, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt.
I think a large proportion of (the small) AUH traffic though is long-haul, their 787 fleet is well sized to serve the major European and Asian capitals once a day, no more. But I don't think they need 2 daily Frankfurt, Manchester, Rome, and so on, to feed Bangkok, Phuket, Sydney and Melbourne.

The problem for EY is all their widebody traffic is sustained by connections. EK has several advantage:
1. Brand recognition
2. Connections, EK almost can connect every to everywhere
3. Dubai has far higher O&D.
4. EK's freight arm feeds more cargo to widebodies and vice versa.

EY doesn't have scale.

What EY brings to a merger:
1. EU, China, and India bilateral rights seperate from Dubai's.
2. The apartment, which I think a merged airline could sell.
3. TSA checkin to USA


The reality is, EY has cost billions to grow to the current scale, but without scale is done. We now have Turkish (TK) and their amazing new airport as well as Ethiopian to compete with as well as EK and QR. In a 5 way race, there will be 2 or 3 losers. I personally would not bet against EK or TK.

EY is in trouble. Either merge or spend billions Abu Dhabi shouldn't waste with oil so cheap. There is no way Abu Dhabi doesn't have to sell assets to sustain the nation. How much can hey afford to waste on EY? Not much in 2020.

Lightsaber
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