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Max Q
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Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:13 pm

If there’s anything that could reinvigorate Boeing and its product line it’s a new generation 787


Improved fuel burn engines, greater payload and range would greatly enhance the appeal of this already superb aircraft


It’s time, all of Boeing’s most successful aircraft in the past have been the ones that were regular updated and improved


The 757 was one of their products that never was and it’s shutdown was the inevitable result



Boeing should not let the 787 get ‘stale’
keep improving it
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
SteelChair
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:15 pm

Disagree completely. It's the only decent product they have. They need to reinvigorate the narrowbody line desperately, and also the MOM.

In 5-8 years time, maybe.
 
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afterburner
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:20 pm

Boeing can do gradual improvement a la A330. But currently, Boeing engineers are busy with the 737Max and 777X.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:22 pm

Why would they need it or any airline want it? 787 current gens aren’t even close to be called “aging”. Most aren’t even 10 years old. The only thing they should be working on is an FSA, but that should come after the MAX issue is resolved.

Inb4 quality of a.net gone downhill, experts used to come here, this used to be a credible source for research papers, yadayadayada.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:36 pm

While there are many urgent issues ensuring that your products have longevity in the market make sense, the A350 a younger product is already being mooted for its mid life engine upgrades. It makes perfect sense to at least be planning for this eventuality. One thing to do would be determine at which point engine tech has advanced to make sense of the upgrade. So when certain benchmarks are met pull the trigger and start actively working on it. Being caught flat footed can lead to unfortunate consequences......
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:38 pm

Why? MAX and 777X are priorities and the 787 was the 2nd part of the Yellowstone project?
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BawliBooch
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:39 pm

787 is still a recent design and very much competitive!

Perhaps it might be a good idea to revive the old 787-3 idea - 52m wingspan, 160T MTOW, 3500nm-4500nm range.
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Cointrin330
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:49 pm

Boeing needs to reinvigorate its work ethic and the perception that it makes shoddy products.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:10 pm

Do you not think Boeing has this on the roadmap? Good thing experienced people works at Boeing.

The 787 would most likely get some PIPs in the future while waiting for newer engine technology. Like the A321 development

Boeing made terrible decisions before but at the end of the day they are a successful business.
 
Boeingphan
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:11 pm

I'm not sure engine advancements are there yet to warrant this. The focus should be to get the MAX up and get the assembly line back at full song while working diligently on the NSA. They need to get 3 years of product out the doors prior to announcing the NSA or this was all an exercise in futility.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:07 pm

Engines, engines and engines, those are the 3 reasons to launch a 787NG.

They will of course already be looking together with GE and RR at what and when it will be possible to add next generation engines on the 787. It depends on the development of these new engines when they will actually launch this NG. The improvement will have to be great enough for customers to be willing to pay for the new version.

The 1st thing they will have to work on is making sure that reducing the rate will not increase the per unit costs of the production. That could mean that there is a need for some more changes to the design to keep the production costs low.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:20 pm

I propose ForceFlex Plus interiors. Like Glad kitchen bags. Basiclally 4 mm tear proof plastic sheet interior. Odor control would make even better.
All posts are just opinions.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:24 pm

What carriers are asking for more range? On what (economically viable!!) routes would they use it? How many incremental sales would this mean? Would that provide a satisfactory return on investment?
 
ewt340
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:29 pm

It's not a bad idea. The only problems is the lck of new generations of engines.

2025 onwards would be the time when engine manufacturer started coming out with those next gen engines.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:31 pm

I can’t see RR or GE being too willing to replace their existing 787 engines for a good few years yet. Boeing clearly has more pressing issues.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Erebus
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:44 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
Engines, engines and engines, those are the 3 reasons to launch a 787NG.

They will of course already be looking together with GE and RR at what and when it will be possible to add next generation engines on the 787. It depends on the development of these new engines when they will actually launch this NG. The improvement will have to be great enough for customers to be willing to pay for the new version.

The 1st thing they will have to work on is making sure that reducing the rate will not increase the per unit costs of the production. That could mean that there is a need for some more changes to the design to keep the production costs low.


The readiness of new engines will determine when the 787NG will come about. RR has been making quite some progress on their next big thing, the UltraFan. But GE has been relatively quiet apart from the recent discussions around an upgraded GEnx proposal for the A350neo. Will that offer the step change in fuel efficiency for Boeing's 787NG needs? I don't know.

Also, the programme is still overall in the red and has not recovered even half of its deferred production costs. Spending on a new iteration will balloon that up again.
 
morrisond
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:45 pm

Yes - it's more likely closer to 2030 before we see new engines on the 787. I would have to guess that if they develop new tech for there next clean sheet (more automated systems - instant ground assistance - possible remote ground control in an emergency both which will equal more revenue for Boeing Services) this will find it's way on to the frame at the same time as new engines with an upgraded Avionics suite to make it common with that next clean sheet.

However the sizes will grow with the increased fuel efficiency - 789 will become the smallest one (as largest NMA may get close enough to 788 in size), with an 787-11 basically as the largest variant. I doubt they would do three sizes.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:55 pm

Please, for heaven sake don't ask for more engine performance, they cannot do it.

Airline operators cannot deal with never ending IFSDs even after EIS+5 years and not-to-spec LN500s.

Think of ways to reduce weight, no seats in Y, maybe Coleman can design a camp cot inspired lie flat J.seat.
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Max Q
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:55 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Disagree completely. It's the only decent product they have. They need to reinvigorate the narrowbody line desperately, and also the MOM.

In 5-8 years time, maybe.



The two are not mutually exclusive, as far as the time line is concerned no tome like the present to start research / marketing and development for an ‘NG’ by the time the concept is defined new engine improvements will be available
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:10 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
787 is still a recent design and very much competitive!

Perhaps it might be a good idea to revive the old 787-3 idea - 52m wingspan, 160T MTOW, 3500nm-4500nm range.


I'm sure the have considered this. Perhaps there is too much redesign work that would need to be done......does anyone have anything on this?
 
texl1649
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:33 pm

The 783 was built for the Japanese market and it wound up not even being good enough there for short flights.

If there were a new engine on offer (beyond RR's current half gen improvement), I'm sure Boeing would be happy to throw it under the wing; there isn't.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:44 pm

Erebus wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
Engines, engines and engines, those are the 3 reasons to launch a 787NG.

They will of course already be looking together with GE and RR at what and when it will be possible to add next generation engines on the 787. It depends on the development of these new engines when they will actually launch this NG. The improvement will have to be great enough for customers to be willing to pay for the new version.

The 1st thing they will have to work on is making sure that reducing the rate will not increase the per unit costs of the production. That could mean that there is a need for some more changes to the design to keep the production costs low.


The readiness of new engines will determine when the 787NG will come about. RR has been making quite some progress on their next big thing, the UltraFan. But GE has been relatively quiet apart from the recent discussions around an upgraded GEnx proposal for the A350neo. Will that offer the step change in fuel efficiency for Boeing's 787NG needs? I don't know.

Also, the programme is still overall in the red and has not recovered even half of its deferred production costs. Spending on a new iteration will balloon that up again.


If customers stop buying the 787 because the engine will have become outdated they will also never recoup these deferred costs. If it's needed they will make another big investment in the program.
 
Oykie
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:54 pm

I expect the engine tech that GE is developing for the GE9X like Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) to be implemented into an improved GEnX. Not sure it will be enough to make it a 787NG, but I’m certain we will see incremental improvements like that. This year AA will receive the first 787-8 with a tail from the 787-9.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:49 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
787 is still a recent design and very much competitive!

Perhaps it might be a good idea to revive the old 787-3 idea - 52m wingspan, 160T MTOW, 3500nm-4500nm range.


Why not instead use 777X style folding wingtips to allow the 787 to fit in 767 gates. The 787-3 only had an operating cost advantage over a few hundred miles. It was better to either abuse a 787-8 or continue to fly 767's.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:53 pm

In the end, like so many other programs its a powerplant issue. Building a NexGen 787 is meaningless without significant improvements in engine technology, especially fuel burn and hopefully eliminating some excess weight. Having Rolls fix the current 787 engine issues wouldn't be a bad thing in the short term, either!
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:58 pm

texl1649 wrote:
The 783 was built for the Japanese market and it wound up not even being good enough there for short flights.

If there were a new engine on offer (beyond RR's current half gen improvement), I'm sure Boeing would be happy to throw it under the wing; there isn't.


No, it was never built. Boeing gave compensation to switch to other models. As I recall some new 767-300ER's were built to replace older ones being used for short and domestic routes.
 
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TheZ
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:11 pm

The 787's backlog is less than 200 frames now. Obviously Boeing has other concerns at the moment but even with the anticipated slowdown that's less than 2 years' worth of production. An announcement of incremental improvements could do a lot of good to increase potential interest. Re-engining would be a stretch at this point though.
If you have to say "pun intended," it's not a good enough pun.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:25 pm

Max Q wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Disagree completely. It's the only decent product they have. They need to reinvigorate the narrowbody line desperately, and also the MOM.

In 5-8 years time, maybe.



The two are not mutually exclusive, as far as the time line is concerned no tome like the present to start research / marketing and development for an ‘NG’ by the time the concept is defined new engine improvements will be available


Time and money is limited, especially in the current Boeing financial enviroment. It's not just throwing a new engine on, a NG would need to be significant enough to justify cost and be of value to customers. So it won't be cheap to develop.
As they are focussing on two new things, and have a massive compensation and loss of income problem ungoing it's not as easy as you are making it believe.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:28 pm

Probably around 2025 we’ll see it.
 
RTNOBLE
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:36 pm

TheZ wrote:
The 787's backlog is less than 200 frames now. Obviously Boeing has other concerns at the moment but even with the anticipated slowdown that's less than 2 years' worth of production. An announcement of incremental improvements could do a lot of good to increase potential interest. Re-engining would be a stretch at this point though.


Were does that backlog number come from. Wiki says 546.
 
KFTG
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:37 pm

Airplanes are not iPhones. This obsession with new and shiny objects is entertaining.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:41 pm

787 will get an engine refresh sometime in the late 2020s.

You'd be looking for any RFP to have RR Ultrafan & whatever GE are cooking up (perhaps a geared development of GENx?).

Otherwise, its too soon. PIPs by alternatives would be close enough to the new variant to mean the investment is not justifiable.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:53 pm

TheZ wrote:
The 787's backlog is less than 200 frames now. Obviously Boeing has other concerns at the moment but even with the anticipated slowdown that's less than 2 years' worth of production. An announcement of incremental improvements could do a lot of good to increase potential interest. Re-engining would be a stretch at this point though.

Less than 200? Wrong. https://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:01 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
The 783 was built for the Japanese market and it wound up not even being good enough there for short flights.

If there were a new engine on offer (beyond RR's current half gen improvement), I'm sure Boeing would be happy to throw it under the wing; there isn't.


No, it was never built. Boeing gave compensation to switch to other models. As I recall some new 767-300ER's were built to replace older ones being used for short and domestic routes.


The compensation was not for Japanese carriers to switch model, but rather for the rollout delay of the 787 overall.

And yes, JL and NH got some of the newest 763s for cheap as part of that compensation. IIRC it only takes a distance of >200nmi for the 787-8 to be more efficient anyway, and even HND-ITM is a longer route than that (not to mention HND-CTS and HND-FUK which are both much busier routes).

As for NG - seriously, why? The 787 as-is already have enough issues (especially with its engines), but otherwise, by itself 787 is not even outdated and is still selling. I do expect some more PiPs, but that's it until at least 2030.
 
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kanban
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:05 pm

KFTG wrote:
Airplanes are not iPhones. This obsession with new and shiny objects is entertaining.


Good grief, KFTG has the meat of it. Those of us that have been around for a while recognize that aircraft sales are cyclical. They go when there is a capacity shortage and down when there is a surplus. nowadays there are so many used nice aircraft out there for sale or lease that most airlines will shop the used market before buying new shiny metal. al the tweaks, pips, and whining will not sell planes where there is no need for more capacity. On the OEMs side from every minor to every major tweak there is more expense to add to the initial model costs. That's why there is standardization rather than a unique version for each customer. Yes we used to do that and paid dearly. you can not turn a profit by changing models before the R&D and production/testing costs are paid especially when some customers are seeing decreasing passengers .
 
WIederling
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:40 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
And yes, JL and NH got some of the newest 763s for cheap as part of that compensation. IIRC it only takes a distance of >200nmi for the 787-8 to be more efficient anyway, and even HND-ITM is a longer route than that (not to mention HND-CTS and HND-FUK which are both much busier routes).


IMU the 783 were ordered for fitting limited gate space and not because they were deemed more efficient than the full scale model for ultra short ranges.
Murphy is an optimist
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:08 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Disagree completely. It's the only decent product they have. They need to reinvigorate the narrowbody line desperately, and also the MOM.

In 5-8 years time, maybe.


Well the 787 could use some engine improvements, in particular addressing the time on wing. PIPs can do a lot of this, the GEnx seems quite current. The
Trent 1000 really needs to get their engine reliability corrected that all planes are flying. RR must do this ASAP or they may cede the 787 to GE
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:54 pm

Like many have said, the 787 is still a great aircraft and highly competitive. Boeing has bigger things to worry about.

However if they feel the need to do anything to the 787, a 78JER would be an awesome aircraft. Taking a -10ER tweeks to the 8 and 9 and BOOM! A350 killer.
When wasn't America great?


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TheZ
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:28 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
TheZ wrote:
The 787's backlog is less than 200 frames now. Obviously Boeing has other concerns at the moment but even with the anticipated slowdown that's less than 2 years' worth of production. An announcement of incremental improvements could do a lot of good to increase potential interest. Re-engining would be a stretch at this point though.

Less than 200? Wrong. https://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries


Mea culpa! Was reading the wrong list and my math was off. Thank goodness, I was worried for a second.
If you have to say "pun intended," it's not a good enough pun.
 
2175301
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:18 pm

The key is engines... It appears that RR has not yet gotten their existing engine to work right.... So they are out of the picture until they can resolve those issues with years of problem free operation under their belt.

I get the feeling that GE will just keep PIPing the existing engine for the next decade, until a major step change can occur in engine technology. I'm sure both GE and RR are working on those - but, getting there is hard as all the easy gains are done, which is why RR still has engine problems with their original base engine for the 787.

I would not expect anything until the late 2020's or early 2030's (and even that may be premature).

Have a great day,
 
Oykie
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:35 pm

There was a rumor that the 787-10 for Air NZ had an increased range, but IIRC they will not offer more range, but 787-9 will do more longer haul flying and shuffling the planes around.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:41 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
787 is still a recent design and very much competitive!


Launched in 2004, that design is already 16 years old.

In 5 years or so, it might need an update.

But not before Boeing has addressed its narrowbody product.
Good moaning!
 
81819
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:19 pm

2175301 wrote:
The key is engines... It appears that RR has not yet gotten their existing engine to work right.... So they are out of the picture until they can resolve those issues with years of problem free operation under their belt.

I get the feeling that GE will just keep PIPing the existing engine for the next decade, until a major step change can occur in engine technology. I'm sure both GE and RR are working on those - but, getting there is hard as all the easy gains are done, which is why RR still has engine problems with their original base engine for the 787.

I would not expect anything until the late 2020's or early 2030's (and even that may be premature).

Have a great day,


I think the keys will revolve around weight reductions and engine PIP's.

If we assume the 787 has been on a diet for the last ten years; and in the not too distant future Boeing will have enough data of in service aircraft to validate a weight reduction program, we could soon see a significant upgrade to the aircraft that only makes small changes to the air frame architecture.

If we throw into the mix engine PIP's (the GenX has a relatively low percentage of ceramics) we could again see a substantial upgrade that don't require changes to the air frame architecture.

The benefit of PIP's and weight reduction programs is that often these developments can be purchased to install on existing aircraft. As such, instead of airlines having to buy new aircraft to receive efficiency gains, they can simply install latest generation parts to aircraft already in the fleet.

For example Airline A has 20 787's already in service with a valuation 50% of new aircraft. They decide to purchase engine PIP's and weight reduction parts for 10% of the value of a new aircraft. The upgrades result in a 4% gain in efficiency and/or extra revenue opportunity of 7%.

Where the upgrades can be installed over a 24 month period, a new aircraft takes 36 months for delivery. For me the air frame upgrade and engine PIP option represents the best development option as it will have a broader market (new aircraft and upgrades to existing aircraft) and customer appeal (we will continue purchasing 787's as Boeing are continually upgrading the aircraft).

As others have mentioned the wide body space if in oversupply at the moment. Boeing are probably best to make sure their offerings do not undermine market fundamentals.
 
jfk777
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:21 pm

The 787 will have incremental upgrades as expected. A longer range 787-10 would be welcome as a 777-200ER replacement. A 787-9 flying from JFK to Sydney nonstop would be a welcome development. Engine technology has not come up with anything making the 787 General Electric engines obsolete. Whatever the future holds for the 787 another 1,000 will probably be built by the time a new plane replaces it.
 
zkncj
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:37 pm

Rolls Royce just needs to get the current Engines to be stable, before they even thinking about trying another design.

On the plus side most of the 789 fitting with RR Engines are currently getting there life expanded, thanks to all the lower cycles from the months that they have sat on the ground waiting on Engine swaps.
 
zkncj
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:41 pm

Oykie wrote:
There was a rumor that the 787-10 for Air NZ had an increased range, but IIRC they will not offer more range, but 787-9 will do more longer haul flying and shuffling the planes around.


For the first batch of 787-10s are coming with the standard range, although I would expect by the time NZ looks at ordering an second batch they will be of an extended range -10 model.

NZ/Boeing have both been public about looking at ways to extend the range for NZ’s requirements.

AKL-EWR will be operated by an 275 seat 789.
 
WIederling
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:26 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Like many have said, the 787 is still a great aircraft and highly competitive. Boeing has bigger things to worry about.

However if they feel the need to do anything to the 787, a 78JER would be an awesome aircraft. Taking a -10ER tweeks to the 8 and 9 and BOOM! A350 killer.


another empty promise? there is a reason why the A350 has a significantly larger wing and apparently matches the 7810 for fuel burn.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:24 am

But if Boeing do not plan for the future, then their currently best selling product will miss out when it is time for its midlife update, and then in a few years we will talking about how they screwed up because they got distracted by X and Y when they needed to make sure that the thing was going to have longevity in their product line.
 
Max Q
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:08 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
But if Boeing do not plan for the future, then their currently best selling product will miss out when it is time for its midlife update, and then in a few years we will talking about how they screwed up because they got distracted by X and Y when they needed to make sure that the thing was going to have longevity in their product line.



Exactly
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Time for a 787NG

Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:10 pm

Max Q wrote:
If there’s anything that could reinvigorate Boeing and its product line it’s a new generation 787


Improved fuel burn engines, greater payload and range would greatly enhance the appeal of this already superb aircraft


It’s time, all of Boeing’s most successful aircraft in the past have been the ones that were regular updated and improved


The 757 was one of their products that never was and it’s shutdown was the inevitable result



Boeing should not let the 787 get ‘stale’
keep improving it


Please.
I mean, really. let's stay serious. PIPs maybe, but no need for an "NG 787". The 787 is a de-facto NG product.
A) it's the only 'advanced' product they have
B) it's the only one technically up to the competition
C) it's still a new jet, not even 'relatively'
D) let's all stay grounded

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