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NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:10 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Yes when 2 people book a skycouch it takes 3 seats out of inventory, but as I said most flights aren’t full on NZ (or pretty much any carrier for that matter).
Put it this way... if you have say 12 people booking skycouches in pairs it removes a total of 18 seats. That means there are 6 less seats that are available to be sold so if the flight is starting to get full they can bump up the booking classes to gain more revenue from the remaining tickets. Now as mentioned, in reality those 6 seats are unlikely to be actually needed but the airline is still getting almost pure ancillary revenue from them (as well as being able to charge more for other seats potentially). Remember that even though a passenger might pay say $800 per sector on a longhaul economy flight, the airline might only make around $50 profit from that. Compare that to around $700-1000 for a skycouch booking which is almost pure profit... you’d have to sell 14-20 normal seats to make the same profit.


You're not getting me. Please for a minute stop and try listen as I'm trying to tell you HOW it works not how I THINK it works. There's no assumptions here. It's tricky one to explain and get your head around.

In that scenario mentioned, 18 seats are removed from the authorized sale of that given flight. There's authorized capacity and physical capacity. One includes the over sale.
They are not just "penciled out" in some artificial way simply using seats that'll be available based on assumptions of an 80% industry average load factor. You are buying the seat and product.

It doesn't mean if the flight is starting to get full they can "bump up booking classes". Complex 3rd party software, not Carina calculates availability to optimize the flight factoring in that -18 immediately after sale.

Another way to explain it:
If the airline was in fact targeting 80% load and lets's assume it's a 772 with 246Y seats, 80% being 197.The airline will view in that scenario 18 of the 197 are sold, not 12. This can and does influence booking classes for the other 179 that are expected to book or 228 that they targeted to sell.

Or another way:
The 6 empty seats are paid for inside the "Skycouch" product and are counted as sold seats and that's factored into future booking class availability and maximizing the flight performance.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4529
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:54 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Yes when 2 people book a skycouch it takes 3 seats out of inventory, but as I said most flights aren’t full on NZ (or pretty much any carrier for that matter).
Put it this way... if you have say 12 people booking skycouches in pairs it removes a total of 18 seats. That means there are 6 less seats that are available to be sold so if the flight is starting to get full they can bump up the booking classes to gain more revenue from the remaining tickets. Now as mentioned, in reality those 6 seats are unlikely to be actually needed but the airline is still getting almost pure ancillary revenue from them (as well as being able to charge more for other seats potentially). Remember that even though a passenger might pay say $800 per sector on a longhaul economy flight, the airline might only make around $50 profit from that. Compare that to around $700-1000 for a skycouch booking which is almost pure profit... you’d have to sell 14-20 normal seats to make the same profit.


You're not getting me. Please for a minute stop and try listen as I'm trying to tell you HOW it works not how I THINK it works. There's no assumptions here. It's tricky one to explain and get your head around.

In that scenario mentioned, 18 seats are removed from the authorized sale of that given flight. There's authorized capacity and physical capacity. One includes the over sale.
They are not just "penciled out" in some artificial way simply using seats that'll be available based on assumptions of an 80% industry average load factor. You are buying the seat and product.

It doesn't mean if the flight is starting to get full they can "bump up booking classes". Complex 3rd party software, not Carina calculates availability to optimize the flight factoring in that -18 immediately after sale.

Another way to explain it:
If the airline was in fact targeting 80% load and lets's assume it's a 772 with 246Y seats, 80% being 197.The airline will view in that scenario 18 of the 197 are sold, not 12. This can and does influence booking classes for the other 179 that are expected to book or 228 that they targeted to sell.

Or another way:
The 6 empty seats are paid for inside the "Skycouch" product and are counted as sold seats and that's factored into future booking class availability and maximizing the flight performance.

I think you are misreading it not understanding what I’ve written because your comment sounds very similar just worded differently...The system always tries to maximise revenue which it does by removing availability in cheaper booking classes as the expected pax load goes up. I’m very well aware of how RM works thank you.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:49 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
I think you are misreading it not understanding what I’ve written because your comment sounds very similar just worded differently...The system always tries to maximise revenue which it does by removing availability in cheaper booking classes as the expected pax load goes up. I’m very well aware of how RM works thank you.


You've claimed Skycouch is the following.

It is ancillary revenue for seats that would otherwise go unsold


As I said, that's not strictly true.

You appear to have an understanding on the principals of RM which is a good start, I'd suggest you do some basic modeling on various scenarios, you'll see where you've sold Skycouch it influences inventory and can change the overall sellable configuration of the flight and what revenue is collected. This influences the 80% load you stated earlier. Or another way, the they're not collecting money from seats that typically go empty, you're adjusting and resetting the metrics which influence how many may go unsold.

In most cases SkyCouch is 'reported' as ancillary revenue for reporting and tracking reasons. But the skycouch cost has the displaced seat cost built into it.

As I said yesterday, I know why you're seeing it the way you are. What I'm trying to say is once you get into it in much more detail it's not as black and white as that.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:04 pm

Just a thought...

It is ancillary revenue for seats that would otherwise go unsold

A better example of this is "Twin Seat", getting some extra space at Check-In from unsold seats. Wasn't aware this was still a thing to be honest.
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/buy-a-t ... t-check-in

Where Skycouch is a product which removes seats from inventory and influences pricing during the standard booking curve in order to achieve the highest revenue and load factor.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:55 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
I think you are misreading it not understanding what I’ve written because your comment sounds very similar just worded differently...The system always tries to maximise revenue which it does by removing availability in cheaper booking classes as the expected pax load goes up. I’m very well aware of how RM works thank you.


You've claimed Skycouch is the following.

It is ancillary revenue for seats that would otherwise go unsold


As I said, that's not strictly true.

You appear to have an understanding on the principals of RM which is a good start, I'd suggest you do some basic modeling on various scenarios, you'll see where you've sold Skycouch it influences inventory and can change the overall sellable configuration of the flight and what revenue is collected. This influences the 80% load you stated earlier. Or another way, the they're not collecting money from seats that typically go empty, you're adjusting and resetting the metrics which influence how many may go unsold.

In most cases SkyCouch is 'reported' as ancillary revenue for reporting and tracking reasons. But the skycouch cost has the displaced seat cost built into it.

As I said yesterday, I know why you're seeing it the way you are. What I'm trying to say is once you get into it in much more detail it's not as black and white as that.

NZ know what they are doing and it’s one of the most consistently profitable airlines. Pretty sure it knows what it’s doing...
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2202
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:22 am

NZ6 wrote:
Just a thought...

It is ancillary revenue for seats that would otherwise go unsold

A better example of this is "Twin Seat", getting some extra space at Check-In from unsold seats. Wasn't aware this was still a thing to be honest.
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/buy-a-t ... t-check-in


I didn't know this was a thing. Sixty US bucks to block out the third seat from LAX-AKL? That's a gift! I'd happily pay twice that.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:38 am

A good news story for those passionate about the regions: https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/235728-t ... s-off.html
 
PA515
Posts: 1608
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:50 am

From the Air NZ 2020 Interim Results Presentation.

Two of the first three domestic A321 NEOs are deferred from FY2021 to FY2023 (Slide 17). Two regional A320 CEOs used on domestic are still leaving the fleet in FY2021 (Slide 28), so the combined CEO and NEO fleet reduces by two until FY2023. (Will be 33 in FY2020, then 32 in FY2021 and FY2022, instead of 34 in FY2021 and FY2022).

I wondered if the remaining A321-271NX due for delivery in FY2021 might be in the regional configuration instead of domestic, and get the Star Alliance colours.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

PA515
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4356
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:56 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
zkojq wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Has an replacement *A livery A321/320NEO joined the fleet yet?


I'm also wondering how this is being dealt with.

Kiwirob wrote:

Manchester Airport makes Auckland look like Changi Airport. Truly amazing how an airport in a first world country can be such an unpleasant and generally awful place.


I'd put Manchester and Auckland on equal footing, they're both as bad as each other, however Manchester's runway isn't falling to pieces and they have two of them.


Yes I guess that, as far as an airport is concerned, Manchester is functionally better. But as buildings and as spaces where people spend time, Manchester is much worse. The low ceilings, internal passageways and lack of natural light is just diabolical.
First to fly the 787-9
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:01 pm

PA515 wrote:
From the Air NZ 2020 Interim Results Presentation.

Two of the first three domestic A321 NEOs are deferred from FY2021 to FY2023 (Slide 17). Two regional A320 CEOs used on domestic are still leaving the fleet in FY2021 (Slide 28), so the combined CEO and NEO fleet reduces by two until FY2023. (Will be 33 in FY2020, then 32 in FY2021 and FY2022, instead of 34 in FY2021 and FY2022).

I wondered if the remaining A321-271NX due for delivery in FY2021 might be in the regional configuration instead of domestic, and get the Star Alliance colours.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

PA515


When I was going through this, I thought to myself we've been really lucky over the last 5 years or so.

  • We've had a lot of 787's come online as well as new A320/1 NEO's.
  • We've opened or reopened SIN, EZE, SGN, HND, DPS, ICN, IAH, KIX, TPE, EWR, ORD...
  • We've had the 777 fleet replacement on the immediate horizon.

When I look ahead, I'm fearing a real slow down in excitement... what do we expect

  • New Business class product..
  • Confirmation of the 77W replacement which may be 5+ years away and could potentially be more of the same
  • Q300 replacement, already 15-20 years old? - very little said.
  • New Short haul routes: What is there? HBA/CBR/SWZ or new city pairing CHC-ADL, CHC-APW
  • New longhaul routes, again what could this be?: IAD, DEN, YYZ, MIA, ATL, NGO, FUK, MNL - seasonal routes BKK, HKT, SGN, OGG, KOA or somewhere in China or South America.
  • Will and when AKL see a second lounge? will this be an exclusive lounge for the very top VIPs or how will it be done.
 
dhaliwal
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 20, 2006 5:41 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:03 am

anyone know how much fuel does the Qatari flight uptake from auckland to doha? and the load factors? could i assume it is a full tank?
 
PA515
Posts: 1608
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:38 am

NZ6 wrote:
Q300 replacement, already 15-20 years old? - very little said.


The Q300s are only 11-15 years old, so replacement is not a priority.

2005 -- NEA, NEB, NEC
2006 -- NED, NEE, NEF, NEG, NEH, NEJ, NEK, NEM, NEO
2007 -- NEP, NEQ, NER, NES, NET, NEU, NEW
2008 -- NEZ, NFA
2009 -- NFB, NFI

There could be some gradual replacement by ATR 72-600s if demand increases, but that seems unlikely in the short term.

PA515
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:21 am

PA515 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Q300 replacement, already 15-20 years old? - very little said.


The Q300s are only 11-15 years old, so replacement is not a priority.

2005 -- NEA, NEB, NEC
2006 -- NED, NEE, NEF, NEG, NEH, NEJ, NEK, NEM, NEO
2007 -- NEP, NEQ, NER, NES, NET, NEU, NEW
2008 -- NEZ, NFA
2009 -- NFB, NFI

There could be some gradual replacement by ATR 72-600s if demand increases, but that seems unlikely in the short term.

PA515


How the heck did I get 15-20 years this morning, I even double checked their arrival dates.

I'm not saying they're due for replacement now, I just looking ahead at what might happen in the industry over the next 5 or so years as we've had so much happen of late.

As for the Q300 - nothing has been said which indicates we're some time away from a shopping trip. It will be interesting to see what happens with electric power over the next 5 years and if or how this impacts the Q300 replacement. NZ has been working with ATR on hybrid electric... I wonder if this will be an avenue at some point.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3892
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:33 am

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/119885580/air-new-zealand-tries-to-stimulate-transtasman-demand-with-airfare-lolly-scramble

Corona Virus starting to pinch on the Tasman? NZ has just stared an 3 day Tasman sale from $69 one way!

Really highlights how much taxes are added to Tasman fares, just paid $220 return for AKl-BNE with the return fare being only $14+TAX.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4529
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:23 am

NZ6 wrote:
PA515 wrote:
From the Air NZ 2020 Interim Results Presentation.

Two of the first three domestic A321 NEOs are deferred from FY2021 to FY2023 (Slide 17). Two regional A320 CEOs used on domestic are still leaving the fleet in FY2021 (Slide 28), so the combined CEO and NEO fleet reduces by two until FY2023. (Will be 33 in FY2020, then 32 in FY2021 and FY2022, instead of 34 in FY2021 and FY2022).

I wondered if the remaining A321-271NX due for delivery in FY2021 might be in the regional configuration instead of domestic, and get the Star Alliance colours.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf

PA515


When I was going through this, I thought to myself we've been really lucky over the last 5 years or so.


When I look ahead, I'm fearing a real slow down in excitement... what do we expect

  • Will and when AKL see a second lounge? will this be an exclusive lounge for the very top VIPs or how will it be done.

They could easily expand the current one over the shops and into the space beside the Glamp grounds, or they could build up higher. Advantages of having them all joined is that even if there are exclusive areas people can still meet in the main lounge. The connection to Glamp Grounds also would serve as a decent shortcut to the gates (at least 2 minutes walking time savings).
Other option is to build another lounge out on pier B with the ability to pre-screen US bound pax (when they do that which happens often enough).
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1603
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:05 am

Zkpilot wrote:
They could easily expand the current one over the shops and into the space beside the Glamp grounds, or they could build up higher. Advantages of having them all joined is that even if there are exclusive areas people can still meet in the main lounge. The connection to Glamp Grounds also would serve as a decent shortcut to the gates (at least 2 minutes walking time savings).
Other option is to build another lounge out on pier B with the ability to pre-screen US bound pax (when they do that which happens often enough).


Not saying your wrong but will they be allowed to build over the shops or more specifically the "Glamp Grounds" and can they build up? structural weight etc etc. It might give AIAL a reason to remodel it all :rotfl:

You actually raise an interesting point. How will the second lounge be used..

  • Will it be open for peak only 'demand'.
  • Will it be on Pier B, will the benefit be for USA only as the issues are more widespread than just during the evening when the US flights depart.
  • If placed on Pier B, will it evenly distribute guests over two lounges. What if NZ isn't using a gates over there during morning peak for example.
  • Another example for Pier B is, even if departing from gate 18, will passengers go to that lounge or will they be forced to? If it was made better can guests departing gate 2 use it etc etc
  • Will the second lounge be exclusive ? for J class and invited Elites, EP1 for example - Will this fix anything for anyone else in the current lounge?

Personally
  • I like the two being 'connected' behind the scenes. It makes it much easier for back of house operations. Catering, storage, cleaning, staff for example but they need to be separated from a front of house perspective. Much like the old first class lounge was.
  • I believe J class and Elites with under 2 guests (children under 16) should use the second lounge. This will make it exclusive enough yet remove enough guests from the main lounge. Someone will need to play with numbers and of course you can use the by invitation line.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4529
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:31 am

NZ6 wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
They could easily expand the current one over the shops and into the space beside the Glamp grounds, or they could build up higher. Advantages of having them all joined is that even if there are exclusive areas people can still meet in the main lounge. The connection to Glamp Grounds also would serve as a decent shortcut to the gates (at least 2 minutes walking time savings).
Other option is to build another lounge out on pier B with the ability to pre-screen US bound pax (when they do that which happens often enough).


Not saying your wrong but will they be allowed to build over the shops or more specifically the "Glamp Grounds" and can they build up? structural weight etc etc. It might give AIAL a reason to remodel it all :rotfl:

You actually raise an interesting point. How will the second lounge be used..

  • Will it be open for peak only 'demand'.
  • Will it be on Pier B, will the benefit be for USA only as the issues are more widespread than just during the evening when the US flights depart.
  • If placed on Pier B, will it evenly distribute guests over two lounges. What if NZ isn't using a gates over there during morning peak for example.
  • Another example for Pier B is, even if departing from gate 18, will passengers go to that lounge or will they be forced to? If it was made better can guests departing gate 2 use it etc etc
  • Will the second lounge be exclusive ? for J class and invited Elites, EP1 for example - Will this fix anything for anyone else in the current lounge?

Personally
  • I like the two being 'connected' behind the scenes. It makes it much easier for back of house operations. Catering, storage, cleaning, staff for example but they need to be separated from a front of house perspective. Much like the old first class lounge was.
  • I believe J class and Elites with under 2 guests (children under 16) should use the second lounge. This will make it exclusive enough yet remove enough guests from the main lounge. Someone will need to play with numbers and of course you can use the by invitation line.

Not over the Glamp Grounds but next to it... there’s a large closed off space there. As for over the shops... well that could be interesting but imagine a nice glass walkway like you have between office buildings etc (almost an airbridge).

Apparently there are a lot of other spaces that used to be offices etc that could also be used (IIRC some are underneath the Glamp Grounds or nearby behind the Whittaker’s store?
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - February 2020

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:04 pm

Please continue discussion in New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442111
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