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lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:10 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas press release on inaugural BNE-SFO today, QF indicates that forward bookings on BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD are strong

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... lden-gate/
yes of course they say that. They'd say that if they had zero paid bookings & flight was full of freeloaders.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:43 am

lessredtape wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas press release on inaugural BNE-SFO today, QF indicates that forward bookings on BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD are strong

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... lden-gate/
yes of course they say that. They'd say that if they had zero paid bookings & flight was full of freeloaders.


Not necessarily, as this is a public statement they would need to follow the stock exchange listing rules and qualify that if it was the case, as analysts and share traders etc would be using this information to make valuation/trade decisions etc. I
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:50 am

EK413 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZND has a had a tailstrike on takeoff from LHR, returning to LHR


Sounds like a false indication on the 789- an expensive indicator!


Today’s QF9 MEL-PER-LHR cancelled as a result of -ZND AOG LHR.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


& QF10 PER-MEL cancelled.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:36 am

qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas press release on inaugural BNE-SFO today, QF indicates that forward bookings on BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD are strong

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... lden-gate/
yes of course they say that. They'd say that if they had zero paid bookings & flight was full of freeloaders.


Not necessarily, as this is a public statement they would need to follow the stock exchange listing rules and qualify that if it was the case, as analysts and share traders etc would be using this information to make valuation/trade decisions etc. I
strong can mean anything. compared to zero bookings, 30% load factor is strong.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:24 am

lessredtape wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
yes of course they say that. They'd say that if they had zero paid bookings & flight was full of freeloaders.


Not necessarily, as this is a public statement they would need to follow the stock exchange listing rules and qualify that if it was the case, as analysts and share traders etc would be using this information to make valuation/trade decisions etc. I
strong can mean anything. compared to zero bookings, 30% load factor is strong.


No, I think you'd find that strong would be far more significant than 30%, if someone took them to court about it (or for a quicker response, the ASX issued them a please explain notice).
 
Aviator34ID
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:26 am

qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas press release on inaugural BNE-SFO today, QF indicates that forward bookings on BNE-SFO and BNE-ORD are strong

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... lden-gate/
yes of course they say that. They'd say that if they had zero paid bookings & flight was full of freeloaders.


Not necessarily, as this is a public statement they would need to follow the stock exchange listing rules and qualify that if it was the case, as analysts and share traders etc would be using this information to make valuation/trade decisions etc. I

Yes, and internal leakers would be all over them too.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:42 am

myki wrote:
Ah yes, true! They would've been able to shuffle the fleet around I guess to the other subsidiaries (yeah requires some paperwork, but still doable to an extent)


Not sure about that. Don't think any of the bought/leased aircraft ended up with other Jetstars at the time
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:12 am

If you actually read the QF press release it doesn’t say the bookings are “strong” it says they are “performing well.” “Performing well“ is a much more vague statement than “strong.”
NSW based avgeek
 
lessredtape
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:15 am

qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Not necessarily, as this is a public statement they would need to follow the stock exchange listing rules and qualify that if it was the case, as analysts and share traders etc would be using this information to make valuation/trade decisions etc. I
strong can mean anything. compared to zero bookings, 30% load factor is strong.


No, I think you'd find that strong would be far more significant than 30%, if someone took them to court about it (or for a quicker response, the ASX issued them a please explain notice).
30% at commercial type fares & another 30% on heavily disocunted travel industry fares like ID90s (90% off) & subload (standby) staff fares
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:38 am

lessredtape wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
strong can mean anything. compared to zero bookings, 30% load factor is strong.


No, I think you'd find that strong would be far more significant than 30%, if someone took them to court about it (or for a quicker response, the ASX issued them a please explain notice).
30% at commercial type fares & another 30% on heavily disocunted travel industry fares like ID90s (90% off) & subload (standby) staff fares


ID90 wouldn't count as "forward bookings".

Unless you have something specific to suggest forward sales are weak I'm not even sure what you are suggesting, other than being argumentative for the sake of it.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:46 am

On top of the CX changes posted a couple days ago PER will see A350-1000 replaced with A359 from April

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... london-usa
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:22 am

WA State Government announcing a $12.85 million tourism and regional aviation package, details are short atm

https://twitter.com/CCI_CEO/status/1226 ... 01473?s=20
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:44 am

Flights to KTA, PHE, PBO and ZNE have slowly returned today after flights have been cancelled the past 3 days due to Cyclone Damien
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aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:47 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
lessredtape wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

No, I think you'd find that strong would be far more significant than 30%, if someone took them to court about it (or for a quicker response, the ASX issued them a please explain notice).
30% at commercial type fares & another 30% on heavily disocunted travel industry fares like ID90s (90% off) & subload (standby) staff fares


ID90 wouldn't count as "forward bookings".

Unless you have something specific to suggest forward sales are weak I'm not even sure what you are suggesting, other than being argumentative for the sake of it.


There is a habit on here of taking QF's word as gospel, then citing ASX disclosure rules as some kind of amazing check on company spin, which are regularly flaunted, particularly in media statements.

Take "underlying profit", which is regularly pronounced by both Qantas and Virgin. It means nothing in reality - underlying profit if we didn't have to pay tax, didn't have all these one off charges and didn't screw up here and there, and didn't have to comply with all these other legal requirements.

The more scrutiny and calling out, the better.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:01 am

qf789 wrote:
ZND has a had a tailstrike on takeoff from LHR, returning to LHR


I understand that as a result the flight ended up cancelled due to maximum allowable hours for the crew.

That being the case then they must be running close to limits even if a flight is on time. Doesn’t seem like much contingency really.

Rgds,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:06 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZND has a had a tailstrike on takeoff from LHR, returning to LHR


I understand that as a result the flight ended up cancelled due to maximum allowable hours for the crew.

That being the case then they must be running close to limits even if a flight is on time. Doesn’t seem like much contingency really.

Rgds,
C1973


Usually its around 45-60 minutes on top of scheduled duty time before they time out
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:09 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZND has a had a tailstrike on takeoff from LHR, returning to LHR


I understand that as a result the flight ended up cancelled due to maximum allowable hours for the crew.

That being the case then they must be running close to limits even if a flight is on time. Doesn’t seem like much contingency really.

Rgds,
C1973

They were airborne for a touch over an hour: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA ... /EGLL/YPPH

Add time for inspection inspection, and it isn’t too surprising that hours were exceeded.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:34 am

qf789 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZND has a had a tailstrike on takeoff from LHR, returning to LHR


I understand that as a result the flight ended up cancelled due to maximum allowable hours for the crew.

That being the case then they must be running close to limits even if a flight is on time. Doesn’t seem like much contingency really.

Rgds,
C1973


Usually its around 45-60 minutes on top of scheduled duty time before they time out


Still doesn’t seem like much. I recall years ago when QF were flying to LHR via SIN, BKK and HKG, they had quite a crew base somewhere in London. Is that not the case anymore? Surely they’d have to have spare crew available?

Rgds,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:36 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I understand that as a result the flight ended up cancelled due to maximum allowable hours for the crew.

That being the case then they must be running close to limits even if a flight is on time. Doesn’t seem like much contingency really.

Rgds,
C1973


Usually its around 45-60 minutes on top of scheduled duty time before they time out


Still doesn’t seem like much. I recall years ago when QF were flying to LHR via SIN, BKK and HKG, they had quite a crew base somewhere in London. Is that not the case anymore? Surely they’d have to have spare crew available?

Rgds,
C1973

I believe the flight crew for QF9/10 are all AU based whilst the cabin crew between LHR and PER are all UK based with domestic cabin crew used between MEL and PER.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:44 am

aerokiwi wrote:

There is a habit on here of taking QF's word as gospel, then citing ASX disclosure rules as some kind of amazing check on company spin, which are regularly flaunted, particularly in media statements.

Take "underlying profit", which is regularly pronounced by both Qantas and Virgin. It means nothing in reality - underlying profit if we didn't have to pay tax, didn't have all these one off charges and didn't screw up here and there, and didn't have to comply with all these other legal requirements.

The more scrutiny and calling out, the better.


Believe me, I know that QF legal views all public statements through the public disclosure lenses and wouldnt approve something that wasn't at least within the realms of truth. Yes commercial will spin it but not outside those same realms.

Re underlying, i agree with some but not all. You have a point there, but only insofar as its not an accounting standard mismatch.

Re scrutiny, totally agree, but random, anonymous airliners.net postings are not all that effective...
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:00 am

tullamarine wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Usually its around 45-60 minutes on top of scheduled duty time before they time out


Still doesn’t seem like much. I recall years ago when QF were flying to LHR via SIN, BKK and HKG, they had quite a crew base somewhere in London. Is that not the case anymore? Surely they’d have to have spare crew available?

Rgds,
C1973

I believe the flight crew for QF9/10 are all AU based whilst the cabin crew between LHR and PER are all UK based with domestic cabin crew used between MEL and PER.


PER-LHR and LHR-PER are staffed solely by London base crew - whilst the PER-MEL and MEL-PER flights are operated by international MEL based crew (who also fly to LAX, SIN, HKG & SFO on the 787/380) with a 24 hour layover in PER.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:19 am

ben175 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

Still doesn’t seem like much. I recall years ago when QF were flying to LHR via SIN, BKK and HKG, they had quite a crew base somewhere in London. Is that not the case anymore? Surely they’d have to have spare crew available?

Rgds,
C1973

I believe the flight crew for QF9/10 are all AU based whilst the cabin crew between LHR and PER are all UK based with domestic cabin crew used between MEL and PER.


PER-LHR and LHR-PER are staffed solely by London base crew - whilst the PER-MEL and MEL-PER flights are operated by international MEL based crew (who also fly to LAX, SIN, HKG & SFO on the 787/380) with a 24 hour layover in PER.



Thanks both for the info. Much appreciated.

If Project Sunrise does go ahead, do you know if they’ll be expanding the London base for the SYD-LHR (and possibly MEL-LHR) flights?

Thanks,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:23 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
ben175 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I believe the flight crew for QF9/10 are all AU based whilst the cabin crew between LHR and PER are all UK based with domestic cabin crew used between MEL and PER.


PER-LHR and LHR-PER are staffed solely by London base crew - whilst the PER-MEL and MEL-PER flights are operated by international MEL based crew (who also fly to LAX, SIN, HKG & SFO on the 787/380) with a 24 hour layover in PER.



Thanks both for the info. Much appreciated.

If Project Sunrise does go ahead, do you know if they’ll be expanding the London base for the SYD-LHR (and possibly MEL-LHR) flights?

Thanks,
C1973


And to mix it up - I believe the 380 services are a mix of SYD/LHR/AKL crew. Those kiwi crew do some seriously long trips away from home, from LHR to JFK in the 744 days, to Asian shuttles back to NZud!
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:57 am

aerokiwi wrote:

There is a habit on here of taking QF's word as gospel, then citing ASX disclosure rules as some kind of amazing check on company spin, which are regularly flaunted, particularly in media statements.

Take "underlying profit", which is regularly pronounced by both Qantas and Virgin. It means nothing in reality - underlying profit if we didn't have to pay tax, didn't have all these one off charges and didn't screw up here and there, and didn't have to comply with all these other legal requirements.

The more scrutiny and calling out, the better.


It's not gospel, but I guarantee its better than the speculation or chat by anonymous posters on A.net. When a poster openly questions the veracity of an official company announcement without offering any evidence, it is nothing but baseless speculation. It's not what I would call more "scrutiny"

ASX listing rules don't guarantee the accuracy of statements, but companies have and continue to be sued by shareholders for making misleading statements. So you can bet that QF aren't just throwing wild stories out for the sake of good PR...
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am

Without going too far into financial topics, underlying profit or EBIT is pretty common for all companies to report as it allows you to look across divisions on a common basis - given interest and tax are generally centralised.

Underlying is also pretty common when their are adjustments like FX or Fuel or asset writedowns that aren't impacting cashflow.

Albeit in airlines, many would prefer to go further up and look at EBIDAL - so also before depreciation and leases.

But it's one of many numbers that the airlines report. Most analysts and investors will look at a variety of numbers.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:15 pm

Apparently VH-OEF has been sold and not being turned into coke cans, can anyone confirm?
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:18 pm

Inside the cleaning process of VH-OEE after its visit to WUH

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coron ... 25a004e5de
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:57 pm

China Southern NS20 changes

SYD-CAN, reduced from 10 to 7 weekly from 29 Mar - 19 Jun 20
MEL-CAN, reduced from 10 to 7 weekly from 29 Mar - 19 Jun 20
ADL-CAN, cancelled till 19 Jun 20
BNE-CAN, cancelled ill 19 Jun 20
PER-CAN, cancelled till 18 Jun 20
MEL-SZX, cancelled till 18 Jun 20
SYD-SZX, cancelled till 20 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-10feb20/
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:02 pm

I'm wondering if China will revoke Australia's "favourite nation" tourist status and that will in turn result in a permanent reduction in China-Australia flights.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:12 pm

eta unknown wrote:
I'm wondering if China will revoke Australia's "favourite nation" tourist status and that will in turn result in a permanent reduction in China-Australia flights.


Well whatever happens its going to take a long time to get back up the capacity that was before, cant even seeing QF returning to PVG daily to start with. Having said that other destinations and airlines may prosper, such as SQ, wonder how long until we see frequencies added for MEL, SYD, BNE, ADL
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:35 pm

A330’s will be operating domestic legs today for QF9/10
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aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:15 pm

moa999 wrote:
Without going too far into financial topics, underlying profit or EBIT is pretty common for all companies to report as it allows you to look across divisions on a common basis - given interest and tax are generally centralised.

Underlying is also pretty common when their are adjustments like FX or Fuel or asset writedowns that aren't impacting cashflow.

Albeit in airlines, many would prefer to go further up and look at EBIDAL - so also before depreciation and leases.

But it's one of many numbers that the airlines report. Most analysts and investors will look at a variety of numbers.


Which is fine... if you're a financial analyst (maybe). But, in Australia at least, airline PR always leads with "underlying profit", knowing full well that's the headline in the media, using that to build public perception. It skirts a line in a nice grey zone but enables exactly this kind of defence - it's a legit number (really?, poor fuel hedging policy or unfavourable FX do have material impact on financial performance) and one of many reported. But they know how media works.

Qantas' "miracle turnaround" came after the thundering losses as a result of asset writedown. It creates a sense of doom - tey used the writedown to show they needed easing of SOQA and argued for government underwriting of debt - then elation - massive profits. That's exactly how it was portrayed. And Virgin does it all the time too. Yet with other industries it seems to be EBITDA and net.

So yeah, whether it's financial performance, specific route performance, battles with airports or government, I think a healthy dose of skepticism of our major carriers is warranted.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:21 pm

qf789 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm wondering if China will revoke Australia's "favourite nation" tourist status and that will in turn result in a permanent reduction in China-Australia flights.


Well whatever happens its going to take a long time to get back up the capacity that was before, cant even seeing QF returning to PVG daily to start with. Having said that other destinations and airlines may prosper, such as SQ, wonder how long until we see frequencies added for MEL, SYD, BNE, ADL


I wonder about the broader impact on travel to Asia. Purely anecdotal but friends have just walked away from a non refundable trip to Japan in a month. There's a real fear out there - overblown, as per - so I could imagine even the likes of SQ suffering out of Australia. Or perhaps they benefit as people head to Europe/elsewhere instead? A tricky one.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:41 pm

I can't see SQ adding extra flights to cover CA/CZ/MU reductions as most of the Chinese carrier flights are filled with ex China tour group pax who simply won't be travelling here.
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:19 pm

eta unknown wrote:
I can't see SQ adding extra flights to cover CA/CZ/MU reductions as most of the Chinese carrier flights are filled with ex China tour group pax who simply won't be travelling here.


There as a significant amount of Europe-AU/NZ traffic that connects via China that will be looking for alternative ways. Opportunities for SQ, EK and QR I would have thought, particularly if they have aircraft to redeploy from China routes.
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:54 pm

qf789 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm wondering if China will revoke Australia's "favourite nation" tourist status and that will in turn result in a permanent reduction in China-Australia flights.


Well whatever happens its going to take a long time to get back up the capacity that was before, cant even seeing QF returning to PVG daily to start with. Having said that other destinations and airlines may prosper, such as SQ, wonder how long until we see frequencies added for MEL, SYD, BNE, ADL


I think a lot of the secondary Chinese cities will not return, but I think the big 3 will probably return to their previous schedule in time. Good point re QF - maybe they will return to PVG 3 weekly for a while?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:15 pm

a7ala wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I can't see SQ adding extra flights to cover CA/CZ/MU reductions as most of the Chinese carrier flights are filled with ex China tour group pax who simply won't be travelling here.


There as a significant amount of Europe-AU/NZ traffic that connects via China that will be looking for alternative ways. Opportunities for SQ, EK and QR I would have thought, particularly if they have aircraft to redeploy from China routes.

I don't think the traffic to Europe via CN is significant. CN is a difficult country to transit through which makes it a poor choice. Compared with SIN, HKG, DXB etc, the share of transit traffic to Europe held by ports such as PVG and PEK is miniscule.

The Wuhan flu is an overall drag on the entire industry not just Chinese airlines. I travel to Asia regularly and the drop in pax in major airports such as SIN and CGK is stunning. I don't think airlines will be easily able to reallocate capacity as demand is reduced on lots of routes. I suspect airlines will choose to park some of their fleet for a while and look for delivery deferrals where possible.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:50 pm

a7ala wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I can't see SQ adding extra flights to cover CA/CZ/MU reductions as most of the Chinese carrier flights are filled with ex China tour group pax who simply won't be travelling here.


There as a significant amount of Europe-AU/NZ traffic that connects via China that will be looking for alternative ways. Opportunities for SQ, EK and QR I would have thought, particularly if they have aircraft to redeploy from China routes.


There is also quite a large portion of AU-CN vv. traffic flowing via SIN which will take/has taken a hit, so those seats remain empty and provide room for those that move over to SQ from CZ, CA, MU etc. for AU-EU connections.

I think we will find that international traffic will slow down inevitably, if to/via China or not. Companies are uncertain about the financial impact and T&E spend is usually the first thing that will be cut. Plus employers being wary of the potential health risk to employees travelling abroad and and ramifications from this, for any non-essential travel. And consumers will also re-consider or at least hold off making decisions about overseas travel. Even if it may not be rational, it is a psychological thing. Getting on a plane with 300 others from god knows where, for 10 hours, that is the bigger risk I believe (at least in the minds of people) than catching it on the streets of [enter name of large Asian city of your choice here] while passing someone who has been to Hubei province weeks ago.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:20 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Without going too far into financial topics, underlying profit or EBIT is pretty common for all companies to report as it allows you to look across divisions on a common basis - given interest and tax are generally centralised.

Underlying is also pretty common when their are adjustments like FX or Fuel or asset writedowns that aren't impacting cashflow.

Albeit in airlines, many would prefer to go further up and look at EBIDAL - so also before depreciation and leases.

But it's one of many numbers that the airlines report. Most analysts and investors will look at a variety of numbers.


Which is fine... if you're a financial analyst (maybe). But, in Australia at least, airline PR always leads with "underlying profit", knowing full well that's the headline in the media, using that to build public perception. It skirts a line in a nice grey zone but enables exactly this kind of defence - it's a legit number (really?, poor fuel hedging policy or unfavourable FX do have material impact on financial performance) and one of many reported. But they know how media works.

Qantas' "miracle turnaround" came after the thundering losses as a result of asset writedown. It creates a sense of doom - tey used the writedown to show they needed easing of SOQA and argued for government underwriting of debt - then elation - massive profits. That's exactly how it was portrayed. And Virgin does it all the time too. Yet with other industries it seems to be EBITDA and net.

So yeah, whether it's financial performance, specific route performance, battles with airports or government, I think a healthy dose of skepticism of our major carriers is warranted.


We have mentioned this before but its worth a remention. Some of the underlying adjustments are convenient ones, such as aircraft impairment or redundancies. In my view they are some of the cheeky ones. But there are some that make a lot of sense. Especially the fuel hedging one (of old?). Fuel hedges are entered into many periods in advance, however, the accounting standards used to/still do (im not close to the detail of that standard at this stage), require that effectiveness be tested at each reporting period and the innefective portion taken to the income statement. Now, there were cases where QF had hedged fuel price in the future, the fuel price moved against it and they took a hit/uplift to the P&L, and then the hedge went back to the hedged level and they reversed that hit/uplift. This introduced unnecessary and innacruate volatility to the financial statements, for which QF (and other non airline companies) felt the need to highlight to investors. Like I indicated, I think this has been changed now but at the time it actually made the financial statements more valuable than they were as they were a more accurate reflection of the actual performance of the business.

I think the fact that ASIC/ASX didnt stop them doing this indicates that they were not neccessarily doing the wrong thing.
 
Flyerqf
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:24 pm

qf789 wrote:
A330’s will be operating domestic legs today for QF9/10

And every Tuesday from now on.
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:26 pm

tullamarine wrote:
a7ala wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I can't see SQ adding extra flights to cover CA/CZ/MU reductions as most of the Chinese carrier flights are filled with ex China tour group pax who simply won't be travelling here.


There as a significant amount of Europe-AU/NZ traffic that connects via China that will be looking for alternative ways. Opportunities for SQ, EK and QR I would have thought, particularly if they have aircraft to redeploy from China routes.

I don't think the traffic to Europe via CN is significant. CN is a difficult country to transit through which makes it a poor choice. Compared with SIN, HKG, DXB etc, the share of transit traffic to Europe held by ports such as PVG and PEK is miniscule.

The Wuhan flu is an overall drag on the entire industry not just Chinese airlines. I travel to Asia regularly and the drop in pax in major airports such as SIN and CGK is stunning. I don't think airlines will be easily able to reallocate capacity as demand is reduced on lots of routes. I suspect airlines will choose to park some of their fleet for a while and look for delivery deferrals where possible.


The numbers I have seen suggest 820,000 OD pax travel Europe-AU/NZ via China/Hong Kong (Y2019 MIDT) - around 12% of the total market. And those are only the ones that directly transit through and do not stopover.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:38 pm

So with VH-OEFs retirement I think that makes EBV the only remaining oneworld livery aircraft.

Presuming either one of the three A380s to be repainted this year or one of the remaining three 787s to be delivered will get a oneworld livery.
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:38 am

moa999 wrote:
So with VH-OEFs retirement I think that makes EBV the only remaining oneworld livery aircraft.

Presuming either one of the three A380s to be repainted this year or one of the remaining three 787s to be delivered will get a oneworld livery.


Would be great to see an A380 or 787 painted in OneWorld livery and I'm slightly surprised they never went with one earlier. Although, I do see them going for it on a 737 instead when one comes up for repaint, hopefully I am incorrect
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:23 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
So with VH-OEFs retirement I think that makes EBV the only remaining oneworld livery aircraft.

Presuming either one of the three A380s to be repainted this year or one of the remaining three 787s to be delivered will get a oneworld livery.


Would be great to see an A380 or 787 painted in OneWorld livery and I'm slightly surprised they never went with one earlier. Although, I do see them going for it on a 737 instead when one comes up for repaint, hopefully I am incorrect

Both Oneworld and Star seem fairly half-hearted when it comes to their alliance liveries so it's hard to guess what Qantas will or won't do. Only Skyteam has a distinct livery that all their members apply within their fleets.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:27 am

a7ala wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
a7ala wrote:

There as a significant amount of Europe-AU/NZ traffic that connects via China that will be looking for alternative ways. Opportunities for SQ, EK and QR I would have thought, particularly if they have aircraft to redeploy from China routes.

I don't think the traffic to Europe via CN is significant. CN is a difficult country to transit through which makes it a poor choice. Compared with SIN, HKG, DXB etc, the share of transit traffic to Europe held by ports such as PVG and PEK is miniscule.

The Wuhan flu is an overall drag on the entire industry not just Chinese airlines. I travel to Asia regularly and the drop in pax in major airports such as SIN and CGK is stunning. I don't think airlines will be easily able to reallocate capacity as demand is reduced on lots of routes. I suspect airlines will choose to park some of their fleet for a while and look for delivery deferrals where possible.


The numbers I have seen suggest 820,000 OD pax travel Europe-AU/NZ via China/Hong Kong (Y2019 MIDT) - around 12% of the total market. And those are only the ones that directly transit through and do not stopover.


What percentage of that number is for HKG? It will be an overwhelming majority, I'm thinking in the region of 90% but would be interested to see actual data if you have it to hand. Including HKG, one of the largest and most popular transit points between Australia and Europe, tells you nothing about the number of passengers transiting through PRC3 hubs.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
a7ala
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:55 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
I don't think the traffic to Europe via CN is significant. CN is a difficult country to transit through which makes it a poor choice. Compared with SIN, HKG, DXB etc, the share of transit traffic to Europe held by ports such as PVG and PEK is miniscule.

The Wuhan flu is an overall drag on the entire industry not just Chinese airlines. I travel to Asia regularly and the drop in pax in major airports such as SIN and CGK is stunning. I don't think airlines will be easily able to reallocate capacity as demand is reduced on lots of routes. I suspect airlines will choose to park some of their fleet for a while and look for delivery deferrals where possible.


The numbers I have seen suggest 820,000 OD pax travel Europe-AU/NZ via China/Hong Kong (Y2019 MIDT) - around 12% of the total market. And those are only the ones that directly transit through and do not stopover.


What percentage of that number is for HKG? It will be an overwhelming majority, I'm thinking in the region of 90% but would be interested to see actual data if you have it to hand. Including HKG, one of the largest and most popular transit points between Australia and Europe, tells you nothing about the number of passengers transiting through PRC3 hubs.


HKG is around 70% of the total. Whilst HKG is not as significantly impacted by the bans its definitely being impacted with CX pulling out quite a lot of capacity over the next few months - plus given all the other issues HKG is facing as a transit point its probably appropriate to include?
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2561
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:10 am

a7ala wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
a7ala wrote:

The numbers I have seen suggest 820,000 OD pax travel Europe-AU/NZ via China/Hong Kong (Y2019 MIDT) - around 12% of the total market. And those are only the ones that directly transit through and do not stopover.


What percentage of that number is for HKG? It will be an overwhelming majority, I'm thinking in the region of 90% but would be interested to see actual data if you have it to hand. Including HKG, one of the largest and most popular transit points between Australia and Europe, tells you nothing about the number of passengers transiting through PRC3 hubs.


HKG is around 70% of the total. Whilst HKG is not as significantly impacted by the bans its definitely being impacted with CX pulling out quite a lot of capacity over the next few months - plus given all the other issues HKG is facing as a transit point its probably appropriate to include?

CX's issues are not related to HKG's status as a transit point to Europe; they are related to its status as a transit point into PRC. Many use CX/KA to access PRC as it gives them a well regarded western style airline with great reach into CN.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:32 am

tullamarine wrote:
CX's issues are not related to HKG's status as a transit point to Europe; they are related to its status as a transit point into PRC. Many use CX/KA to access PRC as it gives them a well regarded western style airline with great reach into CN.


China's the bigger issue,
But business are lumping China in and banning HKG transfers, and the Phillipines is also banning HKG transit entries.

So I'd think they are losing some transit traffic as well
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:08 am

Air India reducing SYD to 3 weekly, down from 5 weekly from 4 Apr to 31 Aug 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-10feb20/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:14 am

Flyerqf wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A330’s will be operating domestic legs today for QF9/10

And every Tuesday from now on.


Is there a reason for that?
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