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Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:02 pm

Welcome to 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437867

Link to 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437865

Just a reminder to keep your posts on topic, personal attacks and flamebait are left out of the discussion, if you are quoting from news sources to add links and your own comments
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2nd2none
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:27 pm

Norwegian may use their Airbus order: In Norwegian https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/XgBLkm ... ertegrense
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:26 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Norwegian may use their Airbus order: In Norwegian https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/XgBLkm ... ertegrense



Can you translate it a bit please?
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:22 pm

2nd2none wrote:
Norwegian may use their Airbus order: In Norwegian https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/XgBLkm ... ertegrense


Not to detract and turn this into A v B flamebait....

This is an interesting article, but gives little away. I have always wondered how long they would wait before taking some of the Airbus for themselves in Norwegian colours. It kinda makes sense they would, it remains to be seen how the MAX will be received by passengers, regular flyers and the jittery nervous Nellies, when the MAX get a RTS. Does anyone have any idea what slots Norwegian hold for these Airbus birds?
Last edited by ShamrockBoi330 on Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
mileduets
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:23 pm

oschkosch wrote:
2nd2none wrote:
Norwegian may use their Airbus order: In Norwegian https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/XgBLkm ... ertegrense



Can you translate it a bit please?


In short, Norwegian is looking at using Airbus planes it ordered for its subsidiaries. (Interview with CEO Schram). He's complaining about the fact that Norwegian would have to do without the ordered Maxes for another summer season, the high costs of the grounding in general and the lack of progress in negotiations with Boeing.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:54 am

Surprised that it has not been mentioned in this thread, but it looks like the SEC is probing Boeing regarding the max!!!!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1ZU2VP

Boeing Co on Friday disclosed it was being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission over the 737 MAX accidents.

The U.S. plane maker said in a regulatory filing it was cooperating with the regulators and cautioned that any adverse results could have a further material impact on its financial position.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:36 am

oschkosch wrote:
Surprised that it has not been mentioned in this thread, but it looks like the SEC is probing Boeing regarding the max!!!!


It's nothing new. The SEC started the investigation back in May 2019. Hence why this isn't news. I reckon some journalist missed this at the time.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/sec-investigating-boeing-over-737-max-issues-report-2019-5?international=true&r=US
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:44 am

LJ wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
Surprised that it has not been mentioned in this thread, but it looks like the SEC is probing Boeing regarding the max!!!!


It's nothing new. The SEC started the investigation back in May 2019. Hence why this isn't news. I reckon some journalist missed this at the time.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/sec-investigating-boeing-over-737-max-issues-report-2019-5?international=true&r=US
It must be new, or why did Boeing announce it yesterday?

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:19 pm

oschkosch wrote:
It must be new, or why did Boeing announce it yesterday?


I don't think it is new and it was only "disclosed" yesterday because that's when Boeing filed their annual 10-K form. It did come out not long after the MAX was grounded.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:46 am

“ Technical experts at the EU’s aviation safety agency want Boeing to relocate certain electrical wiring in the 737 MAX to reduce the risk of short circuits—the latest potential delay in getting the jet back in the air”

Apparently this is new.. not the rudder cables, electrical wires around the tail.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe ... 1580597877

Seems that EASA and the FAA may not be in agreement over this, let alone the other regulators around the world.
So, not sure what they expect Boeing to do? Wait until the regulators have agreed amongst themselves?
As ever, news trickles out in the form of ‘persons not authorized to speak to the media’.
It seems like this saga is drifting on with no one taking control.. maybe time for Trump to bang some heads together, yep its that bad!
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:40 am

flyingphil wrote:
“ Technical experts at the EU’s aviation safety agency want Boeing to relocate certain electrical wiring in the 737 MAX to reduce the risk of short circuits—the latest potential delay in getting the jet back in the air”

Apparently this is new.. not the rudder cables, electrical wires around the tail.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe ... 1580597877

Seems that EASA and the FAA may not be in agreement over this, let alone the other regulators around the world.
So, not sure what they expect Boeing to do? Wait until the regulators have agreed amongst themselves?
As ever, news trickles out in the form of ‘persons not authorized to speak to the media’.
It seems like this saga is drifting on with no one taking control.. maybe time for Trump to bang some heads together, yep its that bad!




It seems like the max saga is becoming a blackhole, it never seems to stop.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
upright
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:19 am

flyingphil wrote:
“ Technical experts at the EU’s aviation safety agency want Boeing to relocate certain electrical wiring in the 737 MAX to reduce the risk of short circuits—the latest potential delay in getting the jet back in the air”
Apparently this is new.. not the rudder cables, electrical wires around the tail.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe ... 1580597877
Seems that EASA and the FAA may not be in agreement over this, let alone the other regulators around the world.
So, not sure what they expect Boeing to do? Wait until the regulators have agreed amongst themselves?
As ever, news trickles out in the form of ‘persons not authorized to speak to the media’.
It seems like this saga is drifting on with no one taking control.. maybe time for Trump to bang some heads together, yep its that bad!

It sounds like Boeing has already made such other last changes to be done and following up with final minor nasty details now.
Were there not even a dozen details including MCAS, which still had to be changed proper and which should all be implemented in a continued 737-maxproduction?
At least, Boeing chief David Calhoun has already discussed ongoing production with supplier “Spirit”. Are certain changes already implemented being able to insert another sensor in the planes body with all its wiring, for example?
Unbelievable somehow.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:23 am

I am not seeking to diminish the need for genuine safety scrutiny of this aircraft, but I am reminded of years ago when (as a non-European company) I was involved in seeking real estate development approval in Rome. The government said approval was dependent upon us producing a certain review. When that review was done they said there was just one other review they wanted done. When that was done they came up with another review. You get the drift. Eventually the company gave up and sold the land back to the Italians.
When they have you by the what nots, they can keep you on the rack forever.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:40 am

flyingphil wrote:
“ Technical experts at the EU’s aviation safety agency want Boeing to relocate certain electrical wiring in the 737 MAX to reduce the risk of short circuits—the latest potential delay in getting the jet back in the air”

Apparently this is new.. not the rudder cables, electrical wires around the tail.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe ... 1580597877

Seems that EASA and the FAA may not be in agreement over this, let alone the other regulators around the world.
So, not sure what they expect Boeing to do? Wait until the regulators have agreed amongst themselves?
As ever, news trickles out in the form of ‘persons not authorized to speak to the media’.
It seems like this saga is drifting on with no one taking control.. maybe time for Trump to bang some heads together, yep its that bad!

Version without a paywall.
https://www.365news.com/2020/02/u-s-eur ... ax-return/

This is not new per-se in my view. This is the potential short circuit of wire bundles associated with the stabilizer as reported some weeks ago discovered during Boeing audit. However, what we have seen is the usual under reporting originally said that it would require the addition of a clamp that would take only two hours, no doubt in the hope it would just go away. Now it seems we find it is the entire cable run and will take two weeks. No lessons learned here.

Seems the conflict is between FAA technical experts and FAA managers siding with Boeing (sounds familiar, see testimony to congress).
'...EASA and FAA technical experts, along with some other FAA officials responsible for certifying aircraft designs, have taken the position that safety rules require wiring modifications in such instances, this person said....'
'...But engineers at the Chicago plane maker and high-ranking FAA managers, including the agency’s top safety official, contend moving the wiring isn’t necessary, ...'


No lessons leaned here either. Boeing money and influence still alive and working?

Ray

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:13 am

oschkosch wrote:
It seems like the max saga is becoming a blackhole, it never seems to stop.


It will be a blackhole until the regulators decide to remove it from the blackhole.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:13 am

Aviator34ID wrote:
When they have you by the what nots, they can keep you on the rack forever.

Italy isn't really known for functional bureaucracy. This hits the locals too.

Will be interesting to see how the TESLA mega factory in Brandenburg works out in that respect.
( Then especially US companies can't be bothered with the established local system (up front
workforce interaction domain) and pretend it is just like at home. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:42 am

9Patch wrote:
Leeham Co reports that Spirit AeroSystems reached agreement with Boeing to supply 220 fuselages in 2020.

Boeing said this week and last week that it will resume production “a couple of months” ahead of recertification of the MAX and that it will be a slow and deliberate restart and ramp up.


Image

The Wichita (KS)-based company has about 100 MAX fuselages in storage.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/30/boein ... more-32421


Do the stored fuselages count as delivered to Boeing?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:34 pm

Not all ADs have to be performed immediately. Most often there is a time limit and/or inspections required. Much of aviation safety does not appear from theoretical physics of flight or engineers plans, but rather from experience. EASA may be saying this plane will be safer, by some ineffable degree, if this wiring is done just a little differently. The FAA likely slightly disagrees.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:00 pm

WIederling wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Leeham Co reports that Spirit AeroSystems reached agreement with Boeing to supply 220 fuselages in 2020.

Boeing said this week and last week that it will resume production “a couple of months” ahead of recertification of the MAX and that it will be a slow and deliberate restart and ramp up.


Image

The Wichita (KS)-based company has about 100 MAX fuselages in storage.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/30/boein ... more-32421


Do the stored fuselages count as delivered to Boeing?


I suspect not - Spirit continued producing at 52 a month even after Boeing reduced the rate to 42. The fuselages are also stored on Spirit's property.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:21 pm

WIederling wrote:

Do the stored fuselages count as delivered to Boeing?

Unless Boeing's paid for them then I very much doubt it. Of course they would act as buffer stock when Boeing restarts assembly and Spirit is restarting production.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:44 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Not all ADs have to be performed immediately. Most often there is a time limit and/or inspections required. Much of aviation safety does not appear from theoretical physics of flight or engineers plans, but rather from experience. EASA may be saying this plane will be safer, by some ineffable degree, if this wiring is done just a little differently. The FAA likely slightly disagrees.

There is a 3rd dynamic - a new group to persuade. Commercial aviation insurers are taking technical advice on AD's, increasing premiums and / or excesses for some until actioned. Of course owners can just choose to ignore and pay more.

In respect to the wiring, FAA and EASA engineers are on the same page. But while EASA management agrees with their expert staff, FAA management doesn't agree with theirs. Even more worrying, FAA management agrees with Boeing.

Seems like history repeating itself again. How many FAA managers are ex-Boeing employees? How many FAA managers are 'expert' managers, rather than airworthiness experts?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:07 pm

@smartplane
The Insurance Companies, re-insurers, insurance brokers will take some persuading not to apply higher premiums to insure the 737MAX.
Then you have to persuade the pilots, flight attendants and the traveling public that the MAX is safe..

But thats getting ahead of ourselves.. there appears to be no clear timeline on a Return to Service with more issues coming out of the woodwork, such as the wiring issue.

Seems premature to talk about restarting production when the priority should be on rectifying the existing frames.. and restarting production wont be easy as Spirit have laid off a lot of workers..

No doubt DM is back on his farm taking long bike rides and counting his millions of dollars and thanking his lucky stars he is out of it.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:07 am

I don't pretend to know what it is, but there will be a point where RTS delays force Boeing to abandon the max, a point where it is no longer "too big to fail". My guess is January of 2021, maybe fall of 2020 if we begin to see major order cancellations. The status of LionAir 's order will be interesting to watch.
 
upright
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:01 am

744SPX wrote:
I don't pretend to know what it is, but there will be a point where RTS delays force Boeing to abandon the max, a point where it is no longer "too big to fail". My guess is January of 2021, maybe fall of 2020 if we begin to see major order cancellations. The status of LionAir 's order will be interesting to watch.

Yes, a remarkable point of view, cause Boeing could pursue this kind of strategy already for a long time since last year just in order to keep the Max on the ground without any further crashes. At the same time, Boeing and FAA will try to get rid of their catastrophe responsibility, because both parties will always assure the Max was not a risky, cheap poker that just `secretly` shouldn't have crashed that often.
Boeing's continued financial persistence without Max sales will be a different chapter.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:18 am

Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737. The MAX is not it. The MAX is unstable. Unstable aircraft crash. Its a fact. Boeing is currently wasting time not designing a new 737. It might just save them. If they persist with the MX it will sink them. One more crash will be all that's needed. Take the bold move make a composite 737 ultra modern and they will have amazing success. Its the only obvious route. The MAX is a dead Duck.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:24 am

Maybe the nma stands for new max airplane? They theoretically could surprise us all and say "we went back to the drawing board and came up with a new single aisle plane, pending max orders can be converted over to the nma".

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:58 am

goosebayguy wrote:
Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737. The MAX is not it. The MAX is unstable. Unstable aircraft crash. Its a fact. Boeing is currently wasting time not designing a new 737. It might just save them. If they persist with the MX it will sink them. One more crash will be all that's needed. Take the bold move make a composite 737 ultra modern and they will have amazing success. Its the only obvious route. The MAX is a dead Duck.


The 737MAX is stable,

The fault is only found when the AOA malfunctions, which results in the permanent loss of control.

For the MCAS2.0, pilot will be able to override the software if an AOA flaw is found...
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:07 am

Aviator34ID wrote:
I am not seeking to diminish the need for genuine safety scrutiny of this aircraft, but I am reminded of years ago when (as a non-European company) I was involved in seeking real estate development approval in Rome. The government said approval was dependent upon us producing a certain review. When that review was done they said there was just one other review they wanted done. When that was done they came up with another review. You get the drift. Eventually the company gave up and sold the land back to the Italians.
When they have you by the what nots, they can keep you on the rack forever.


I think one has to be very careful with parallels. With all due respect to your former non-European employer and the beauty of Rome and the real estate around it, I do not think anybody would expect an E.U. regulatory agency acting in the context of a problem that the “whole world” is watching (I am not attempting hyperbole here, but what happens to Boeing affects the U.S. economy and that, in turn affects the entire world, leaving aside everything else that is directly affected by aviation) would act like a local Italian agency in the context of a real estate development. I see your qualification about not diminishing the need for safety, but sometimes there may be genuine disagreements and the EASA folks and others at the FAA who agree with them may even be wrong after using their best judgment. Many users pointed out in this forum that a benefit from the grounding maybe the fact that the MAX will be safest aircraft to ever fly as a result of this scrutiny. Scrutiny does not mean every issue that was raised proves to be a genuine risk, it means all stones are turned, whether or not turning them exposes a problem. The only thing that concerns me here is the alleged disagreement between FAA engineers and managers. If I were The FAA management, I would tread very, very, very lightly on that ground.

A final point: the forced grounding may have exposed some relative “slackness” in the NB market, maybe the demand was not as urgent as the ever-heating order lists had suggested. I have not heard of multiple suicided among airline executives attributable to lack of NB aircraft, with members of the public clamoring to fly them in the background. The “coronavirus” epidemic may have further “helped.” Maybe, just maybe, there is a silver lining in the MAX crisis, in that it will end up injecting some reality into a situation that was caught up in a bit of irrational exuberance.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:18 am

SamYeager2016 wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Do the stored fuselages count as delivered to Boeing?

Unless Boeing's paid for them then I very much doubt it. Of course they would act as buffer stock when Boeing restarts assembly and Spirit is restarting production.


Well, it touches on how many Spirit has to produce in 2020.

Fuselage inventory ( 100 pcs ) owned by Spirit:
Spirit has to do 120 further fuselages in 2020
and a rather relaxed timeline.
Just break a set of 5 out in April ....

Fuselage inventory ( 100 pcs ) owned by Boeing:
Spirit has to do 220 further fuselages in 2020.
and really have to start up and begin with 5 in April.
Murphy is an optimist
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:01 pm

goosebayguy wrote:
Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737. The MAX is not it. The MAX is unstable. Unstable aircraft crash. Its a fact. Boeing is currently wasting time not designing a new 737. It might just save them. If they persist with the MX it will sink them. One more crash will be all that's needed. Take the bold move make a composite 737 ultra modern and they will have amazing success. Its the only obvious route. The MAX is a dead Duck.

Please stop posting stuff like this. It isn't accurate. It is likely that if Boeing would have removed MCAS after the certification flights (like VW with the diesel software), nobody would have ever noticed the issues that MCAS was needed to correct. It is highly unlikely that any MAX would have crashed due to "instability."

The fact that the Canadian regulator suggested removing MCAS for RTS disproves the "unstable" theory.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:25 pm

Comair has removed MAX from its safety card, electing to use 737-8 instead

Image

https://twitter.com/SpaethFlies/status/ ... 10304?s=20
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

If I were them I would have gone further: 737-8(00)
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:56 pm

planecane wrote:
goosebayguy wrote:
Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737. The MAX is not it. The MAX is unstable. Unstable aircraft crash. Its a fact. Boeing is currently wasting time not designing a new 737. It might just save them. If they persist with the MX it will sink them. One more crash will be all that's needed. Take the bold move make a composite 737 ultra modern and they will have amazing success. Its the only obvious route. The MAX is a dead Duck.

Please stop posting stuff like this. It isn't accurate. It is likely that if Boeing would have removed MCAS after the certification flights (like VW with the diesel software), nobody would have ever noticed the issues that MCAS was needed to correct. It is highly unlikely that any MAX would have crashed due to "instability."

The fact that the Canadian regulator suggested removing MCAS for RTS disproves the "unstable" theory.

The fact that the Canadian regulators suggestion didn’t get adopted makes your whole statement pointless. If the solution was that easy, the MCAS would have been removed months or even years ago. That being said, the only way forward for Boeing is fixing the MAX. A new 737 replacement doesn’t make sense at this stage from a financial as well as technological point of view.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:27 pm

goosebayguy wrote:
Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737.


The last thing on Earth Boeing needs is a new 737. They went one too many versions already.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:21 am

hivue wrote:
goosebayguy wrote:
Boeing have to start making bold moves. It desperately needs a new 737.


The last thing on Earth Boeing needs is a new 737. They went one too many versions already.

I've got a feeling he meant a 737 replacement.
Grumpy. Not a dwarf, not an attitude. It's a lifestyle.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:48 am

cuban8 wrote:
The fact that the Canadian regulator suggested removing MCAS for RTS disproves the "unstable" theory.

The fact that the Canadian regulators suggestion didn’t get adopted makes your whole statement pointless. [/quote]
Not really, the suggestion was made to the FAA who has mandates in place that make MCAS necessary.
So far the FAA has not said anything, we know that they had pilots review MCAS 2.0 and no leaks saying that it failed, only that the pilots used various methods to recover, so training and updated manuals are on the way, will they also suggest the removal of MCAS, time will tell.

The head of the FAA says he has no timeline but safety so....lets sit and wait. Hopefully Boeing will not take any actions to influence the process.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:09 am

1. Which airline has been most impacted operationally by the 737 MAX grounding?

2. Which airline has been most impacted financially by the 737 MAX grounding?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:32 am

cuban8 wrote:
...the only way forward for Boeing is fixing the MAX. A new 737 replacement doesn’t make sense at this stage from a financial as well as technological point of view.


You left out the risk point of view. What is the risk to Boeing as an enterprise if a third MAX goes down?

Any incident involving any MAX moving forward will receive a TON of press. They can rebrand the MAX 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. It will not matter if something happens. A third incident with casualties, whether MCAS related or not, would have implications for Boeing well beyond the 737 program. Any incident involving a 787 or new build 777 will have microscopes all over Boeing.

Boeing and the 737 MAX may very well survive this. Calhoun has huge compensations incentives to get the MAX back in the air. But make no mistake, Boeing is in a very precarious situation. They are managing a ton of risk right now and that includes what to do with the MAX and future programs.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:11 am

A third crash is always possible, it just must not be directly connected to a design problem of the plane.
 
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ADent
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:42 am

questions wrote:
1. Which airline has been most impacted operationally by the 737 MAX grounding?

2. Which airline has been most impacted financially by the 737 MAX grounding?

1. Southwest
2. Southwest

There are 68 MAX in WN colors, plus the planes they are missing due to the production slow down/shut down.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:22 am

questions wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
...the only way forward for Boeing is fixing the MAX. A new 737 replacement doesn’t make sense at this stage from a financial as well as technological point of view.


You left out the risk point of view. What is the risk to Boeing as an enterprise if a third MAX goes down?


this is absolutely the main question
 
cuban8
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:10 pm

questions wrote:
cuban8 wrote:
...the only way forward for Boeing is fixing the MAX. A new 737 replacement doesn’t make sense at this stage from a financial as well as technological point of view.


You left out the risk point of view. What is the risk to Boeing as an enterprise if a third MAX goes down?

Any incident involving any MAX moving forward will receive a TON of press. They can rebrand the MAX 737-8, 737-9 and 737-10. It will not matter if something happens. A third incident with casualties, whether MCAS related or not, would have implications for Boeing well beyond the 737 program. Any incident involving a 787 or new build 777 will have microscopes all over Boeing.

Boeing and the 737 MAX may very well survive this. Calhoun has huge compensations incentives to get the MAX back in the air. But make no mistake, Boeing is in a very precarious situation. They are managing a ton of risk right now and that includes what to do with the MAX and future programs.

I very much agree with you, but Boeing doesn’t have too many options at this stage. Scrapping the MAX would potentially put BCA in chapter 11. Ending up with a third MAX crash would probably lead to the same outcome. So fixing the MAX is in my opinion the only option at this time. For sure there will be risks involved if/when the MAX RTS.
When business goes to hell, you get rid of three things. Your private jet, your yacht and your mistress..........and most importantly in that order.
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spinotter
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:37 pm

NonTechAvLover wrote:
Aviator34ID wrote:
I am not seeking to diminish the need for genuine safety scrutiny of this aircraft, but I am reminded of years ago when (as a non-European company) I was involved in seeking real estate development approval in Rome. The government said approval was dependent upon us producing a certain review. When that review was done they said there was just one other review they wanted done. When that was done they came up with another review. You get the drift. Eventually the company gave up and sold the land back to the Italians.
When they have you by the what nots, they can keep you on the rack forever.


I think one has to be very careful with parallels. With all due respect to your former non-European employer and the beauty of Rome and the real estate around it, I do not think anybody would expect an E.U. regulatory agency acting in the context of a problem that the “whole world” is watching (I am not attempting hyperbole here, but what happens to Boeing affects the U.S. economy and that, in turn affects the entire world, leaving aside everything else that is directly affected by aviation) would act like a local Italian agency in the context of a real estate development. I see your qualification about not diminishing the need for safety, but sometimes there may be genuine disagreements and the EASA folks and others at the FAA who agree with them may even be wrong after using their best judgment. Many users pointed out in this forum that a benefit from the grounding maybe the fact that the MAX will be safest aircraft to ever fly as a result of this scrutiny. Scrutiny does not mean every issue that was raised proves to be a genuine risk, it means all stones are turned, whether or not turning them exposes a problem. The only thing that concerns me here is the alleged disagreement between FAA engineers and managers. If I were The FAA management, I would tread very, very, very lightly on that ground.

A final point: the forced grounding may have exposed some relative “slackness” in the NB market, maybe the demand was not as urgent as the ever-heating order lists had suggested. I have not heard of multiple suicided among airline executives attributable to lack of NB aircraft, with members of the public clamoring to fly them in the background. The “coronavirus” epidemic may have further “helped.” Maybe, just maybe, there is a silver lining in the MAX crisis, in that it will end up injecting some reality into a situation that was caught up in a bit of irrational exuberance.


If the 737 MAX was poorly designed and implemented, it will never be the safest aircraft out there.
 
jumbojettony
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:08 pm

Aircellist wrote:
A short Radio-Canada report about the 160 flights by canadian 737MAX since flight interdiction.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/15 ... erche=true

More on the same subject, from CBC, so in English :-)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadi ... -1.5449405

A few words from Marc Garneau, Transport Minister

https://www.cbc.ca/news/garneau-talks-a ... -1.5450453


A bit shocked with how high that number is but 2 days ago I counted 3 Max 8 flights To / From Canada.
2 WestJets to storage from Bc and 1 Air Canada from Windsor to Mtl then another one took off from Yul to Mzj for storage the next day.

What really bothers me is why bother asking the victims families what they think? We all know what they would say so just leave them alone. I am willing to bet they will think the same thing if/when it is put back into service but I am sure CBC will go ask they again what they think. Just seems a bit silly and fear mongering a bit to me.

Screenshot of all the movements below.
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:14 pm

This is the problem. The design is fundamentally flawed. The only way to actually "fix" it is to design a new engine that is the same weight and form factor as the CFM56-7b. That's not going to happen. The design has been pushed too far. The plane is a Frankenstein and needs to be put out of its misery.
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:23 pm

744SPX wrote:
This is the problem. The design is fundamentally flawed. The only way to actually "fix" it is to design a new engine that is the same weight and form factor as the CFM56-7b. That's not going to happen. The design has been pushed too far. The plane is a Frankenstein and needs to be put out of its misery.


What is your definition of "fundamentally flawed"?
IMHO this is typical overreaction and hysteria.
Boeing did a horrible job of compensating for an edge-case handling quirk and it killed a bunch of people.
That's not a fundamental flaw in the aircraft. Many aircraft have handling quirks for edge cases and do just fine. The MAX's problem was a poorly designed and implemented solution to that handling quirk. If it had been done correctly then the MAXes would still be flying and would have never had this problem.
 
lowbank
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Leeham Co reports that Spirit AeroSystems reached agreement with Boeing to supply 220 fuselages in 2020.

Boeing said this week and last week that it will resume production “a couple of months” ahead of recertification of the MAX and that it will be a slow and deliberate restart and ramp up.


Image

The Wichita (KS)-based company has about 100 MAX fuselages in storage.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/30/boein ... more-32421


Do the stored fuselages count as delivered to Boeing?



They don’t have a hope in hell of meeting that ramp up.

People have been laid off, made redundant and companies will not be able to recruit staff and train them to meet that rate..
Every days a school day.
 
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par13del
Posts: 10325
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:48 pm

ADent wrote:
questions wrote:
1. Which airline has been most impacted operationally by the 737 MAX grounding?

2. Which airline has been most impacted financially by the 737 MAX grounding?

1. Southwest
2. Southwest

There are 68 MAX in WN colors, plus the planes they are missing due to the production slow down/shut down.

If you are only interested in the highest money amount then sure or something like the best player on a team versus the most valuable player on a team.
Cayman Airways for example has 50% of its jet fleet grounded as they are MAX a/c, how financially impacted do you think that is, statistics and numbers once again.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Cayman-Airways
 
744SPX
Posts: 242
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:19 pm

Chemist wrote:
744SPX wrote:
This is the problem. The design is fundamentally flawed. The only way to actually "fix" it is to design a new engine that is the same weight and form factor as the CFM56-7b. That's not going to happen. The design has been pushed too far. The plane is a Frankenstein and needs to be put out of its misery.


What is your definition of "fundamentally flawed"?
IMHO this is typical overreaction and hysteria.
Boeing did a horrible job of compensating for an edge-case handling quirk and it killed a bunch of people.
That's not a fundamental flaw in the aircraft. Many aircraft have handling quirks for edge cases and do just fine. The MAX's problem was a poorly designed and implemented solution to that handling quirk. If it had been done correctly then the MAXes would still be flying and would have never had this problem.


The concept of the Max is itself fundamentally flawed. Trying to cram LEAP's on an aircraft designed for JT8D's was a decision (mistake) whose only justification came down to satisfying shareholders and other short-term financial goals when the harder (but correct) decision was to build NSA.

I'm sorry, did the A320 -need its nose gear raised?
-need its engine BPR reduced to fit the aircraft?
-need its nacelles pushed out and up so far that it changed CG and stall characteristics?
-Its tail cone redesigned ?
-Special ugly-as-sin advanced winglets?

Airbus paid its price when it built the original A320. Boeing tried to cheat with the Max. They thought they could get away with not having to build a 737NG replacement for another generation. 346 people paid for that with their lives, and now Boeing is saying the Max will last for a generation? No.
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:50 pm

744SPX wrote:
and now Boeing is saying the Max will last for a generation? No.


The sad fact is it will. WN and Ryanair will have no other options available for quite a while -- unless they can live with used NGs for another generation.
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