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maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:34 am

planecane wrote:
maint123 wrote:
planecane wrote:
If anybody really wanted to do an MCAS off test without support from Boeing, they could do one of two things:

1) Get the aircraft stable and in trim before the maneuver that they want to evaluate. Turn off the electric trim with the cutout switches. Perform the desired maneuver and evaluate the results. You wouldn't be trimming in the middle of a turn anyway.

2) Perform a test flight with all electric trim on. Have the PNF (who would be a test pilot) listen for or watch the trim wheel and any time it starts to move in manual flight, flick the thumb switch very briefly for nose up trim to stop the MCAS cycle.

Mcas was incorporated for high AoA situations, not for level flight. Taking trials in level flight defeats the purpose of real life situations .
Suppose AoA is high and mcas again misbehaves, the pilot should be able to switch off mcas ,use the wheel solely and land the plane.
The trouble is that in the case of the Ethiopian crash , the pilots after switching mcas off ,couldn't manually fly the plane.
Many here questioned the skill level of the pilots.
So it's only logical that during a climb , with high AoA , the test pilots switch off mcas and manually land the plane.
It's like one engine failing during take off at near max thrust and the 2nd engine safely doing the job. Which is not a uncommon event.
The same level of reliance should be tested out on the mechanicals and aerodynamics of the max .


I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

Trimming with the manual wheel is irrelevant to that exercise.

I have to disagree. Trimming with the manual wheel is central to the exercise. That's what Boeing had recommended after the first crash and even the 2nd crash.
A situation can occur where the complete electricals are disabled by a short or something and the plane has to be flown solely by the manual wheel.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:37 am

maint123 wrote:
planecane wrote:
maint123 wrote:
Mcas was incorporated for high AoA situations, not for level flight. Taking trials in level flight defeats the purpose of real life situations .
Suppose AoA is high and mcas again misbehaves, the pilot should be able to switch off mcas ,use the wheel solely and land the plane.
The trouble is that in the case of the Ethiopian crash , the pilots after switching mcas off ,couldn't manually fly the plane.
Many here questioned the skill level of the pilots.
So it's only logical that during a climb , with high AoA , the test pilots switch off mcas and manually land the plane.
It's like one engine failing during take off at near max thrust and the 2nd engine safely doing the job. Which is not a uncommon event.
The same level of reliance should be tested out on the mechanicals and aerodynamics of the max .


I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

Trimming with the manual wheel is irrelevant to that exercise.

I have to disagree. Trimming with the manual wheel is central to the exercise. That's what Boeing had recommended after the first crash and even the 2nd crash.
A situation can occur where the complete electricals are disabled by a short or something and the plane has to be flown solely by the manual wheel.


You seem to be misunderstanding what is meant by testing the characteristics with MCAS disabled. MCAS doesn't do anything in 99% (I don't know the exact number) of the flight envelope. Testing what the aircraft does in that 1% with MCAS off does not require manual wheel trimming.

Testing flying with the manual trim wheel is completely separate. It has already been shown to be possible as it was done by the crew of JT043.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:37 am

Duplicate
 
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ADent
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:38 am

Not sure where MCAS is today, but with one of the proposed versions all you have to do is tape an AOA sensor at one of its stops to disable MCAS (if the two sensors disagreed then it cut out).
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:21 am

planecane wrote:
maint123 wrote:
planecane wrote:

I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

Trimming with the manual wheel is irrelevant to that exercise.

I have to disagree. Trimming with the manual wheel is central to the exercise. That's what Boeing had recommended after the first crash and even the 2nd crash.
A situation can occur where the complete electricals are disabled by a short or something and the plane has to be flown solely by the manual wheel.


You seem to be misunderstanding what is meant by testing the characteristics with MCAS disabled. MCAS doesn't do anything in 99% (I don't know the exact number) of the flight envelope. Testing what the aircraft does in that 1% with MCAS off does not require manual wheel trimming.

Testing flying with the manual trim wheel is completely separate. It has already been shown to be possible as it was done by the crew of JT043.

Doubts have been raised about the flight characteristics of the max in absence of Mcas. While jt043 was flown successfully , the Ethiopian plane crashed.
Repeatability is essential for gaining confidence in any equipment. Performance and safety cannot be on a knives edge ,it should be a broad band.
Atleast 50 continuous trials should be undertaken in absence of mcas , with high AOA ,with a wide spectrum of pilots . Not only highly qualified test pilots.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:07 am

seahawk wrote:
The less both big OEMs can produce, the bigger is the need to secure slots early.



And if you produce 0 right now there will be very little slots, so sales will be curtailed. So where is your confidence that many large orders are just around the corner, other than just pure blind faith fanboyism?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:10 am

enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The less both big OEMs can produce, the bigger is the need to secure slots early.


And if you produce 0 right now there will be very little slots, so sales will be curtailed. So where is your confidence that many large orders are just around the corner, other than just pure blind faith fanboyism?


So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:00 am

ADent wrote:
Not sure where MCAS is today, but with one of the proposed versions all you have to do is tape an AOA sensor at one of its stops to disable MCAS (if the two sensors disagreed then it cut out).


you actually want to test the airplane without MCAS and not without AoA.

All these funny solutions offered are nonrunners.
Murphy is an optimist
 
pasen
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:37 am

seahawk wrote:
So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?

No, firstly because the bad reputation of the MAX is not immediately going away after return to service, and secondly because if one more major incident happens with the MAX, that plane is dead. So I expect any responsible airline executive to wait until some confidence in Boeing and the MAX has been restored before placing a significant order.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:40 am

seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The less both big OEMs can produce, the bigger is the need to secure slots early.


And if you produce 0 right now there will be very little slots, so sales will be curtailed. So where is your confidence that many large orders are just around the corner, other than just pure blind faith fanboyism?


So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?



Answering a question with a question, are you just avoiding answering?

I will not deflect, I don't expect larger orders (multiple) once production is restarted because as people always points out they have 4500 still to be produced that is sold already. The MAX is the fastest selling model Boeing has ever had so to keep selling 500 a year they had to produce 500 a year. Seeing as they are producing nothing right now and ramp up will be slow it means their ability to offer slots will curtail sales. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp. If they ramp up on the 1st March at the proposed rate of 57 aircraft per month they would have 6 years worth of production without new sales.

They are not going to ramp up to 57 per month from the start so I expect any open slots may be swallowed up by the production halt which means less slots available to sell.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:03 am

maint123 wrote:
planecane wrote:
maint123 wrote:
I have to disagree. Trimming with the manual wheel is central to the exercise. That's what Boeing had recommended after the first crash and even the 2nd crash.
A situation can occur where the complete electricals are disabled by a short or something and the plane has to be flown solely by the manual wheel.


You seem to be misunderstanding what is meant by testing the characteristics with MCAS disabled. MCAS doesn't do anything in 99% (I don't know the exact number) of the flight envelope. Testing what the aircraft does in that 1% with MCAS off does not require manual wheel trimming.

Testing flying with the manual trim wheel is completely separate. It has already been shown to be possible as it was done by the crew of JT043.

Doubts have been raised about the flight characteristics of the max in absence of Mcas. While jt043 was flown successfully , the Ethiopian plane crashed.
Repeatability is essential for gaining confidence in any equipment. Performance and safety cannot be on a knives edge ,it should be a broad band.
Atleast 50 continuous trials should be undertaken in absence of mcas , with high AOA ,with a wide spectrum of pilots . Not only highly qualified test pilots.


The doubts are about the flight characteristics in the absence of MCAS IF THE PILOT ENTERS THE TRIGGER CONDITIONS FOR MCAS. There are no doubts that the aircraft suddenly becomes difficult to handle in normal flight. MCAS doesn't do anything in normal flight when it is enabled.

The question which needs to be answered is what the characteristics are like in the unlikely event that the trigger conditions are met and either electric trim has been turned off or an AoA disagree has caused MCAS to be disabled.

Recall that the original test pilots were OK with MCAS being implemented in the first place because they felt that it would almost never activate. Assuming this is true (which will obviously be verified by the regulators), the possibility of having MCAS disabled (either by the cutout switches or AoA disagree) AND the pilot entering the trigger conditions should be extremely rare. Possibly rare enough that it would meet the regulations for acceptable risk even if the plane would fall out of the sky every time it happened.
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:22 pm

planecane wrote:
The doubts are about the flight characteristics in the absence of MCAS IF THE PILOT ENTERS THE TRIGGER CONDITIONS FOR MCAS.

The doubts are about flight characteristics in some parts of flight conditions where the plane needs to operate acceptably. We do not know whether MCAS trigger conditions are the same or different from where the doubts are. It might be possible that the plane behaves wonky also outside the MCAS trigger conditions. We don't know until somebody tests what happens where.

Let's remind us that the accuracy of AoA sensors is something between laughable and horrendous. I don't remember the numbers but when I saw the numbers half a year ago the margin of error produced by AoA sensors was HUGE. So I am doubting the whole concept of MCAS whether the trigger conditions are at all possible to be made accurate enough using this kind of inaccurate input data so that the whole intended MCAS functionality makes sense at all in the end. It might be so that MCAS is extremely rare because it needs to be tuned that way to make damn sure that MCAS almost never activates when the alternative tuning of the system would make MCAS also possibly activate in regular level flying if the AoA sensors in that particular plane would err into showing too large AoA values. The whole MCAS trigger condition calculation could be a situation which engineers call "Garbage in, Garbage out".

planecane wrote:
Recall that the original test pilots were OK with MCAS being implemented in the first place because they felt that it would almost never activate

This might not be literally false but this is a halfway nonsensical statement so that from this it is possible to extrapolate into total nonsense argument like:
planecane wrote:
Possibly rare enough that it would meet the regulations for acceptable risk even if the plane would fall out of the sky every time it happened.


Boeing test pilots were OK with the MCAS design because they thought that if MCAS would activate in intended way it would do the right thing and improve things.
We also know that MCAS was felt it was needed in such a part of flight scenarios where the plane needs to work acceptably per regulations.

There needs to be separate tests what are the conditions where plane behaves wonky and separate tests to find out whether MCAS trigger conditions happen to be in the right places given all the possible error sources in the system starting from AoA sensor inaccuracy. And what is the overall result of everything that can happen at what probability.
Last edited by Ertro on Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:25 pm

Ertro wrote:
planecane wrote:
The doubts are about the flight characteristics in the absence of MCAS IF THE PILOT ENTERS THE TRIGGER CONDITIONS FOR MCAS.

The doubts are about flight characteristics in some parts of flight conditions where the plane needs to operate acceptably. We do not know whether MCAS trigger conditions are the same or different from where the doubts are. It might be possible that the plane behaves wonky also outside the MCAS trigger conditions. We don't know until somebody tests what happens where.

Let's remind us that the accuracy of AoA sensors is something between laughable and horrendous. I don't remember the numbers but when I saw the numbers half a year ago the margin of error produced by AoA sensors was HUGE. So I am doubting the whole concept of MCAS whether the trigger conditions are at all possible to be made accurate enough using this kind of inaccurate input data so that the whole intended MCAS functionality makes sense at all in the end. It might be so that MCAS is extremely rare because it needs to be tuned that way to make damn sure that MCAS almost never activates when the alternative tuning of the system would make MCAS also possibly activate in regular level flying if the AoA sensors in that particular plane would err into showing too large AoA values. The whole MCAS trigger condition calculation could be a situation which engineers call "Garbage in, Garbage out".


Can we use a little logic? If MCAS was needed outside of the prescribed trigger conditions then how did the MAX pass the certification tests when MCAS only operated within those constraints?
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:40 pm

planecane wrote:
If MCAS was needed outside of the prescribed trigger conditions then how did the MAX pass the certification tests when MCAS only operated within those constraints?


Not just one but at least 3 possible reasons:

1) Because the people who knew enough details of the system to understand everything were different people than those who had the realistic possibility in their mind that the plane could be flagged as failing the certification and delay EIS for a very long time?

2) It is also possible that absolutely nobody understood the whole picture but instead every person understood only very small susbset of the whole problem field.

3) The plane where tests were flown was the same where the MCAS trigger condition algorithm was tuned so whatever error the AoA sensors have from plane to plane did not matter in the test.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:30 pm

enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:

And if you produce 0 right now there will be very little slots, so sales will be curtailed. So where is your confidence that many large orders are just around the corner, other than just pure blind faith fanboyism?


So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?



Answering a question with a question, are you just avoiding answering?

I will not deflect, I don't expect larger orders (multiple) once production is restarted because as people always points out they have 4500 still to be produced that is sold already. The MAX is the fastest selling model Boeing has ever had so to keep selling 500 a year they had to produce 500 a year. Seeing as they are producing nothing right now and ramp up will be slow it means their ability to offer slots will curtail sales. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp. If they ramp up on the 1st March at the proposed rate of 57 aircraft per month they would have 6 years worth of production without new sales.

They are not going to ramp up to 57 per month from the start so I expect any open slots may be swallowed up by the production halt which means less slots available to sell.



Which in the end means that any airline wanting a NEO or MAX by 2025 would need to sign a contract quickly to secure the planes, no?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:40 pm

seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?



Answering a question with a question, are you just avoiding answering?

I will not deflect, I don't expect larger orders (multiple) once production is restarted because as people always points out they have 4500 still to be produced that is sold already. The MAX is the fastest selling model Boeing has ever had so to keep selling 500 a year they had to produce 500 a year. Seeing as they are producing nothing right now and ramp up will be slow it means their ability to offer slots will curtail sales. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp. If they ramp up on the 1st March at the proposed rate of 57 aircraft per month they would have 6 years worth of production without new sales.

They are not going to ramp up to 57 per month from the start so I expect any open slots may be swallowed up by the production halt which means less slots available to sell.



Which in the end means that any airline wanting a NEO or MAX by 2025 would need to sign a contract quickly to secure the planes, no?

Which would mean either overpaying for NEO compared to ordering it a year from now if MAX returns to service without further issues, or getting cheap MAX and facing risk of late delivery, higher insurance premiums, and maybe even program cancelation.
Or maybe next economic downturn on the horizon and cancellation of chinese orders after the epidemics will reduce future demand and early slots will be available.
A gamble may be too harsh to play.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:48 pm

Those global risks, so far do not seem to hit the NEO.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:06 pm

planecane wrote:
I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

...which is what the FAA did with its bit flip test in June-2019, Boeing were not able to address that until November 2019 and even today, there are still gremlins in the computers as a result of those changes.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:44 pm

Ertro wrote:
planecane wrote:
If MCAS was needed outside of the prescribed trigger conditions then how did the MAX pass the certification tests when MCAS only operated within those constraints?


Not just one but at least 3 possible reasons:

1) Because the people who knew enough details of the system to understand everything were different people than those who had the realistic possibility in their mind that the plane could be flagged as failing the certification and delay EIS for a very long time?

2) It is also possible that absolutely nobody understood the whole picture but instead every person understood only very small susbset of the whole problem field.

3) The plane where tests were flown was the same where the MCAS trigger condition algorithm was tuned so whatever error the AoA sensors have from plane to plane did not matter in the test.


Shall we also ignore the hundred and something thousand MAX flights that didn't have any handling issues as long as MCAS didn't erroneously trigger and cause a runaway stabilizer? There is ample evidence that the MAX flies just fine outside of the MCAS trigger conditions without any kind of augmentation.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:45 pm

par13del wrote:
planecane wrote:
I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

...which is what the FAA did with its bit flip test in June-2019, Boeing were not able to address that until November 2019 and even today, there are still gremlins in the computers as a result of those changes.


I don't see what the bit flip test and subsequent software changes have to do with flight characteristics with MCAS turned off.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:52 pm

planecane wrote:
Ertro wrote:
planecane wrote:
If MCAS was needed outside of the prescribed trigger conditions then how did the MAX pass the certification tests when MCAS only operated within those constraints?


Not just one but at least 3 possible reasons:

1) Because the people who knew enough details of the system to understand everything were different people than those who had the realistic possibility in their mind that the plane could be flagged as failing the certification and delay EIS for a very long time?

2) It is also possible that absolutely nobody understood the whole picture but instead every person understood only very small susbset of the whole problem field.

3) The plane where tests were flown was the same where the MCAS trigger condition algorithm was tuned so whatever error the AoA sensors have from plane to plane did not matter in the test.


Shall we also ignore the hundred and something thousand MAX flights that didn't have any handling issues as long as MCAS didn't erroneously trigger and cause a runaway stabilizer? There is ample evidence that the MAX flies just fine outside of the MCAS trigger conditions without any kind of augmentation.

But STS is an augmentation system, which was active on most - if not all - of those problem-free fights...
 
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spinotter
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:58 pm

seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The less both big OEMs can produce, the bigger is the need to secure slots early.


And if you produce 0 right now there will be very little slots, so sales will be curtailed. So where is your confidence that many large orders are just around the corner, other than just pure blind faith fanboyism?


So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?


IGA's big order is almost sure to be coming, isn't it?
 
RobertS975
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:21 pm

An Air Canada 738 MAX is currently airborne from Pinal Airport Marana AZ KMZJ bound for Winsor Ontario CYOG. Wondering why?
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:33 pm

Regarding the wiring, maybe it's possible to come to a solution like this:

Wiring must be moved before or during next D-check on the 800 already produced frames.

Wiring must be moved on all new built MAX being built.
 
upright
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:10 pm

@JetBuddy,
and what about any risk within this period ? I think, no one will guarantee anything, rather just let it happen.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:14 pm

planecane wrote:
par13del wrote:
planecane wrote:
I get that. I'm talking about doing a test. The conditions that trigger MCAS are specific (and by this point known to regulators). They can use one of those methods to disable MCAS and put the aircraft into the conditions that normally trigger it to test the handling characteristics if they want to without help from Boeing.

...which is what the FAA did with its bit flip test in June-2019, Boeing were not able to address that until November 2019 and even today, there are still gremlins in the computers as a result of those changes.

I don't see what the bit flip test and subsequent software changes have to do with flight characteristics with MCAS turned off.

The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.

The assertion was that one could do the same things done to disable MCAS during the bit flip test, but I think that is false.

From what I read the bit flip test was done in the engineering simulator (eCab) and it was done by modifying the memory of the flight control computer.

I think it is likely that this kind of functionality would only exist in the engineering simulator or maybe one of the aircraft wired for certification testing so Boeing would need to be involved.

I also think this whole idea that Boeing is trying to block EASA from exploring the edges of the flight envelope is fake news. EASA has said it will not certify the plane till it can explore the flight envelope itself and EASA has also said fairly recently that EIS could be as soon as mid March so there clearly is a plan in place to satisfy EASA.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:28 pm

seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So you expect no big orders after the production is restarted?



Answering a question with a question, are you just avoiding answering?

I will not deflect, I don't expect larger orders (multiple) once production is restarted because as people always points out they have 4500 still to be produced that is sold already. The MAX is the fastest selling model Boeing has ever had so to keep selling 500 a year they had to produce 500 a year. Seeing as they are producing nothing right now and ramp up will be slow it means their ability to offer slots will curtail sales. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp. If they ramp up on the 1st March at the proposed rate of 57 aircraft per month they would have 6 years worth of production without new sales.

They are not going to ramp up to 57 per month from the start so I expect any open slots may be swallowed up by the production halt which means less slots available to sell.



Which in the end means that any airline wanting a NEO or MAX by 2025 would need to sign a contract quickly to secure the planes, no?


It depends.
You are sure that there are big orders around the corner. And we have has the WN,FR etc discussions.
Given the current economic/political environment, and the sheer scale of narrowbody backlogs, there is a school of thought which suggests that some 737MAX customers might take the opportunity of "adjusting" their order positions to suit, which may result in a series of cancellations to go along with the new orders.

I am also not convinced that the "500 for WN, 300 for FR, 200 for IAG and 500 others" scenario will play out over a 12 month period. It is more likely to be 2 years or more IMO

Rgds
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.


I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from. It would be totally foolish to do anything on real plane without Boeings test pilot on the other seat who knows what to expect and preventing anything really dangerous from happening. Also what other planes could be used for this except ones that read "Boeing" on the side. I doubt any airline or their insurance company or FAA allows to use any airline planes for this. Also any other simulator than what Boeing owns cannot be trusted to simulate this condition and mabye not even Boeings engineering simulator is accurate enough to be really trusted.

Revelation wrote:
From what I read the bit flip test was done in the engineering simulator (eCab) and it was done by modifying the memory of the flight control computer.
I think it is likely that this kind of functionality would only exist in the engineering simulator or maybe one of the aircraft wired for certification testing so Boeing would need to be involved.


I am pretty sure this was run on the eCab simulator. Although there is the possibility no tests runs were run at all. It could have been that a bunch of engineers sat around a table and looked at each other asking "Is there anybody who thinks this bitflip test is going to pass?" and since nobody believed that it was desided to announce that it failed and just tell press that it was a real test that was run.
Last edited by Ertro on Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:06 pm

Ertro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.

I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from.

The narrative running around this thread and elsewhere is that evil Boeing is trying to prevent virtuous [ insert name of non-FAA regulator here ] from exploring the full flight envelope of MAX so we need to explore a way to turn off MCAS without Boeing's help. As I wrote above I think this is a "fake news" manufactured narrative, but it keeps coming back.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:37 pm

So realistically, Boeing are looking at a grounding lasting 18 months at least. Can a 50 year-old design ever recover from that?

By comparison, the DC-10 was only three years old when it was going through something similar.

I think the MAX is now at 50/50 whether it will ever fly again. Those are shocking odds. People on here are talking it up, but we are no nearer RTS than we were a year ago!
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Ertro wrote:
It would be totally foolish to do anything on real plane without Boeings test pilot on the other seat who knows what to expect and preventing anything really dangerous from happening.


Nothing dangerous is going to happen with MCAS disabled. The dangerous stuff has all happened when MCAS was active.

Boeing is bound to have plenty of flight test data with MCAS turned off from the original test campaign. Why waste the time and the fuel?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:10 pm

astuteman wrote:
seahawk wrote:
enzo011 wrote:


Answering a question with a question, are you just avoiding answering?

I will not deflect, I don't expect larger orders (multiple) once production is restarted because as people always points out they have 4500 still to be produced that is sold already. The MAX is the fastest selling model Boeing has ever had so to keep selling 500 a year they had to produce 500 a year. Seeing as they are producing nothing right now and ramp up will be slow it means their ability to offer slots will curtail sales. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp. If they ramp up on the 1st March at the proposed rate of 57 aircraft per month they would have 6 years worth of production without new sales.

They are not going to ramp up to 57 per month from the start so I expect any open slots may be swallowed up by the production halt which means less slots available to sell.



Which in the end means that any airline wanting a NEO or MAX by 2025 would need to sign a contract quickly to secure the planes, no?


It depends.
You are sure that there are big orders around the corner. And we have has the WN,FR etc discussions.
Given the current economic/political environment, and the sheer scale of narrowbody backlogs, there is a school of thought which suggests that some 737MAX customers might take the opportunity of "adjusting" their order positions to suit, which may result in a series of cancellations to go along with the new orders.

I am also not convinced that the "500 for WN, 300 for FR, 200 for IAG and 500 others" scenario will play out over a 12 month period. It is more likely to be 2 years or more IMO

Rgds


We must not go into fanboy territory here. I did not talk about 1000+ but hundreds, and if you consider that in 2019 650 more A320 were ordered than 737MAX (for obvious reasons) and even if we believe that the market share would go to 2/3 and 1/3 in favour of the NEO, it would still mean that about 300+ orders from 2019 must be in the pipeline, especially as none of the known customers have jumped ship yet. If we believe the MAX won´t fly till the end of March, it should add another 75 orders that would be expected. So about 400 orders are kind of "missing" around April/May 2020.
That is new orders not net orders and it can easily turn out to be another year with a net zero or even negative net order result for the MAX, depending on how many customers use the troubles to reduce or cancel their orders.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:36 pm

seahawk wrote:
astuteman wrote:
seahawk wrote:


Which in the end means that any airline wanting a NEO or MAX by 2025 would need to sign a contract quickly to secure the planes, no?


It depends.
You are sure that there are big orders around the corner. And we have has the WN,FR etc discussions.
Given the current economic/political environment, and the sheer scale of narrowbody backlogs, there is a school of thought which suggests that some 737MAX customers might take the opportunity of "adjusting" their order positions to suit, which may result in a series of cancellations to go along with the new orders.

I am also not convinced that the "500 for WN, 300 for FR, 200 for IAG and 500 others" scenario will play out over a 12 month period. It is more likely to be 2 years or more IMO

Rgds


We must not go into fanboy territory here. I did not talk about 1000+ but hundreds, .


No, you did not, and apologies if that's how you took it. Others, though, have done, and I took the "big orders" comment initally to imply that.

For what its worth, I am in the camp that thinks the MAX will bounce back, only perhaps with a bit less momentum than it had in the past.
I do expect WN and FR orders to come in, as well as IAG.

Using WN as an example, there is a WN thread on the go at the moment.
They have a fleet of 750 and 250 on order.
But 200 of those 750 are pretty new 737-800's (2012-2018) which I don't think will be going anywhere soon.
That suggests the 250 MAXes on order will be to replace 737-700's and for growth.
WN have said themselves that the 737-7 MAXes they have are not required until 2023-2024.

Quite a few of us could see the bulk of the 737-700's being replaced with more MAX-8's
Whilst unlikely, I don't think its out of the question that the A220-300 might be considered for some of the 737-700 replacement. I personally wouldn't bet on it. But...

I could see WN placing 100 or 200 orders this year, with another 100 to 200 in the next couple of years
I don't see a WN 500+ MAX order in 2020 as at least one poster has suggested.

I also think that, dependent on circumstances, there will be some airlines who trim orders - not talking huge numbers - 100 or 200 maybe from a number of airlines.
These will be gaps in the backlog that get filled by orders like WN

Rgds
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:25 pm

Interesting opinion piece in AvWeek:

Our research shows that Boeing will survive this crisis due to the high degree of brand insulation it has among its customers. Brand insulation occurs when customers who are reliably and consistently satisfied with a company are willing to forgive a product-quality lapse, viewing it as an anomaly and trusting that the company will address the issue. If the company does so to their satisfaction, they willingly forgive it and may even increase their loyalty to the company.

The authors are:

Vikas Mittal is the J. Hugh Liedtke Professor of Marketing at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Shrihari Sridhar is the Joe Foster ’56 Chair in Business Leadership and Professor of Marketing at Texas A&M University’s Mays Business School.

Ref: https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... adaddb58eb
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pasen
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:31 pm

planecane wrote:
Shall we also ignore the hundred and something thousand MAX flights that didn't have any handling issues as long as MCAS didn't erroneously trigger and cause a runaway stabilizer? There is ample evidence that the MAX flies just fine outside of the MCAS trigger conditions without any kind of augmentation.


Where is that evidence?
On how many of these non-crashed flights did MCAS trigger and prevent an accident? Are there any statistics about that?
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting opinion piece in AvWeek:

Our research shows that Boeing will survive this crisis due to the high degree of brand insulation it has among its customers. Brand insulation occurs when customers who are reliably and consistently satisfied with a company are willing to forgive a product-quality lapse, viewing it as an anomaly and trusting that the company will address the issue. If the company does so to their satisfaction, they willingly forgive it and may even increase their loyalty to the company.

The authors are:

Vikas Mittal is the J. Hugh Liedtke Professor of Marketing at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Shrihari Sridhar is the Joe Foster ’56 Chair in Business Leadership and Professor of Marketing at Texas A&M University’s Mays Business School.

Ref: https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... adaddb58eb


Finally somebody (the authors of this article) said it, it may even increase brand loyalty to the company, i.e. the crashes may help Boeing. The natural conclusion is that Boeing should try to orchestrate some more crashes for ever-increasing brand loyalty, where after enough crashes and fixing problems, all airlines of the world want to buy only Boeing. Airbus is also good they say, but no one fixes problems like Boeing, impossible not to love the brand. Airbus agreed and said, unfortunately our competition has shown that it can solve problems and we simply could not. Yeah, our planes arrive safely, but who cares, our customers want to hear we can fix our problems.

Please do not take this personally, it is not the poster but the authors, but how does this kind of crap become academic writing? I love my Neighborhood restaurant, I get a different kind of food poisoning every time I eat there, but they fix it every time, I cannot imagine eating anywhere else ever again.

Our research shows...
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:57 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Regarding the wiring, maybe it's possible to come to a solution like this:

Wiring must be moved before or during next D-check on the 800 already produced frames.

Wiring must be moved on all new built MAX being built.


Depending on how much wiring and the location involved, this could be a very very expensive task.
Moving wiring in a maintenance environment as opposed to a production environment also adds risk of wrong installation or damage during installation. D-checks are typically carried out in developping countries and the maintenance quality leaves a lot to be desired...
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
Ertro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.

I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from.

The narrative running around this thread and elsewhere is that evil Boeing is trying to prevent virtuous [ insert name of non-FAA regulator here ] from exploring the full flight envelope of MAX so we need to explore a way to turn off MCAS without Boeing's help. As I wrote above I think this is a "fake news" manufactured narrative, but it keeps coming back.


You don't need a path sidestepping the manufacturer.
The manufacturer is tasked with complying.

If the manufacturer thinks that avoiding compliance is a good thing he is "topping from the bottom".
i.e. inverting the established hierarchy.
Murphy is an optimist
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:19 pm

pasen wrote:
planecane wrote:
Shall we also ignore the hundred and something thousand MAX flights that didn't have any handling issues as long as MCAS didn't erroneously trigger and cause a runaway stabilizer? There is ample evidence that the MAX flies just fine outside of the MCAS trigger conditions without any kind of augmentation.


Where is that evidence?
On how many of these non-crashed flights did MCAS trigger and prevent an accident? Are there any statistics about that?


Are you being serious or just argumentative? MCAS was designed to operate in conditions that occurred in an approach to stall. How many normal flights per year on any aircraft operating with passengers on board ever gets anywhere near stall conditions?

Another question to ask is how often aircraft are hand flown with flaps retracted? MCAS isn't enabled with flaps retracted or on autopilot.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:21 am

Ertro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.


I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from. It would be totally foolish to do anything on real plane without Boeings test pilot on the other seat who knows what to expect and preventing anything really dangerous from happening. Also what other planes could be used for this except ones that read "Boeing" on the side. I doubt any airline or their insurance company or FAA allows to use any airline planes for this. Also any other simulator than what Boeing owns cannot be trusted to simulate this condition and mabye not even Boeings engineering simulator is accurate enough to be really trusted.


I'm curious as well. I wouldn't think there's anything stopping EASA from grabbing a grounded Max and doing a high speed windup turn with MCAS 1.0 turned OFF (after first climbing to 30000ft, over the ocean, with stab cutouts flipped just after getting in-trim). Surely EASA has test pilots, highly skilled in 737NG or Max.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:35 am

Can anyone explain why both Boeing and Airbus have used such old processors in their new aircraft? I didn't even know the 286 processor was still being produced. Do newer more powerful processors have cooling issues or something?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:38 am

uta999 wrote:
So realistically, Boeing are looking at a grounding lasting 18 months at least. Can a 50 year-old design ever recover from that?

By comparison, the DC-10 was only three years old when it was going through something similar.

I think the MAX is now at 50/50 whether it will ever fly again. Those are shocking odds. People on here are talking it up, but we are no nearer RTS than we were a year ago!


Boeing could have designed a replacement aircraft in the time it takes the MAX to get RTS.

If the MAX returns and the program continues long enough to fulfill backorders, by the time the last 737 retires it will be an 80+ year old design. Think about that. It’s like putting self driving technology in an AMC Pacer.

David Calhoun has huge financial incentives tied to returning the MAX to the skies. The MAX will fly again and Mr Calhoun will make a fortune for getting an airplane held together with software duct tape. Airlines want it back in the air because alternative strategies are not easy to execute. The questions are: How long will the program remain in existence? Will it be shut down sooner than Boeing wants, i.e., due to competitive changes, other incidents that lead to total loss of confidence, etc?
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:42 am

So now more FOD, but in Renton! Why did they not check this earlier? Why is this coming out now?

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/18/boein ... more-32624

Boeing finds debris left in new 737 MAXes, now in storage

Boeing recently discovered some of its stored 737 MAXes have foreign objects in the fuel tanks. The entire fleet of 400+ newly produced but undelivered MAXes is being inspected. Foreign objects, called foreign object debris (FOD) in aviation parlance, consist of tools or rags. FOD has been found in the fuel tanks of some MAXes. MAXes are stored at four locations in Washington State and in San Antonio (TX). It’s unlikely that the FOD inspections will delay recertification or testing of the MAX.
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max999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:55 am

oschkosch wrote:
So now more FOD, but in Renton! Why did they not check this earlier? Why is this coming out now?

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/18/boein ... more-32624

Boeing finds debris left in new 737 MAXes, now in storage

Boeing recently discovered some of its stored 737 MAXes have foreign objects in the fuel tanks. The entire fleet of 400+ newly produced but undelivered MAXes is being inspected. Foreign objects, called foreign object debris (FOD) in aviation parlance, consist of tools or rags. FOD has been found in the fuel tanks of some MAXes. MAXes are stored at four locations in Washington State and in San Antonio (TX). It’s unlikely that the FOD inspections will delay recertification or testing of the MAX.


Just another sign of Boeing's endemic cultural problems. Shareholder value is priority first, second, and third at the expense of cheapening everything else like safety and quality.
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:28 am

astuteman wrote:
For what its worth, I am in the camp that thinks the MAX will bounce back, only perhaps with a bit less momentum than it had in the past.
I do expect WN and FR orders to come in, as well as IAG.

Using WN as an example, there is a WN thread on the go at the moment.
They have a fleet of 750 and 250 on order.
But 200 of those 750 are pretty new 737-800's (2012-2018) which I don't think will be going anywhere soon.
That suggests the 250 MAXes on order will be to replace 737-700's and for growth.
WN have said themselves that the 737-7 MAXes they have are not required until 2023-2024.

Quite a few of us could see the bulk of the 737-700's being replaced with more MAX-8's
Whilst unlikely, I don't think its out of the question that the A220-300 might be considered for some of the 737-700 replacement. I personally wouldn't bet on it. But...

I could see WN placing 100 or 200 orders this year, with another 100 to 200 in the next couple of years
I don't see a WN 500+ MAX order in 2020 as at least one poster has suggested.

I also think that, dependent on circumstances, there will be some airlines who trim orders - not talking huge numbers - 100 or 200 maybe from a number of airlines.
These will be gaps in the backlog that get filled by orders like WN

Rgds


I probably agree with you that there will be many more MAXs (or BAM as I am now calling it, Born Again Max) sold in the foreseeable future. The only issue I believe that a purchaser will have is availability. With Boeing having to deal with the stored planes and a progressive startup of production, it could be a while before anyone who buys one actually sees it.

Personally I can’t think of even how to calculate the number, but with a 12(+) month grounding, hundreds of produced planes to fix, plus the production restart, I’d have to estimate that it could be around about aN 18-24 month delay in deliveries.

Rgds,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973


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flyingturtle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:51 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Can anyone explain why both Boeing and Airbus have used such old processors in their new aircraft? I didn't even know the 286 processor was still being produced. Do newer more powerful processors have cooling issues or something?


They're tested, reliable, well documented...

...and you don't need the sheer processing power of any newer chips. The aircraft's systems don't produce that much data. The avionics don't need to calculate weather predictions for the destination airport... :old:

CPU cooling *can* be an issue insofar that CPU fans are a source of potential failures. Maybe they would be fine with passive cooling. But again, the computational power isn't needed.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:07 am

sgrow787 wrote:
Ertro wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The general idea is figuring out how to explore the edges of the flight envelope without MCAS activation and without Boeing's help.


I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from. It would be totally foolish to do anything on real plane without Boeings test pilot on the other seat who knows what to expect and preventing anything really dangerous from happening. Also what other planes could be used for this except ones that read "Boeing" on the side. I doubt any airline or their insurance company or FAA allows to use any airline planes for this. Also any other simulator than what Boeing owns cannot be trusted to simulate this condition and mabye not even Boeings engineering simulator is accurate enough to be really trusted.


I'm curious as well. I wouldn't think there's anything stopping EASA from grabbing a grounded Max and doing a high speed windup turn with MCAS 1.0 turned OFF (after first climbing to 30000ft, over the ocean, with stab cutouts flipped just after getting in-trim). Surely EASA has test pilots, highly skilled in 737NG or Max.


who would ensure such a stunt?
 
macc
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:25 am

I wonder what these FOD issues across all lines mean in terms of customer relations. Must be pretty bad by now.
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maint123
Posts: 396
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:29 am

asdf wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Ertro wrote:

I don't know where the "without Boeing's help" comes from. It would be totally foolish to do anything on real plane without Boeings test pilot on the other seat who knows what to expect and preventing anything really dangerous from happening. Also what other planes could be used for this except ones that read "Boeing" on the side. I doubt any airline or their insurance company or FAA allows to use any airline planes for this. Also any other simulator than what Boeing owns cannot be trusted to simulate this condition and mabye not even Boeings engineering simulator is accurate enough to be really trusted.


I'm curious as well. I wouldn't think there's anything stopping EASA from grabbing a grounded Max and doing a high speed windup turn with MCAS 1.0 turned OFF (after first climbing to 30000ft, over the ocean, with stab cutouts flipped just after getting in-trim). Surely EASA has test pilots, highly skilled in 737NG or Max.


who would ensure such a stunt?

Not a stunt. It's the job of the test pilots to test the planes in all scenarios. And especially scenarios which have killed hundreds in a few months gap.
The lions pilots had no idea of mcas but the Ethiopian crew did try to follow Boeing's instructions.
 
max999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:05 am

max999 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
So now more FOD, but in Renton! Why did they not check this earlier? Why is this coming out now?

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/18/boein ... more-32624

Boeing finds debris left in new 737 MAXes, now in storage

Boeing recently discovered some of its stored 737 MAXes have foreign objects in the fuel tanks. The entire fleet of 400+ newly produced but undelivered MAXes is being inspected. Foreign objects, called foreign object debris (FOD) in aviation parlance, consist of tools or rags. FOD has been found in the fuel tanks of some MAXes. MAXes are stored at four locations in Washington State and in San Antonio (TX). It’s unlikely that the FOD inspections will delay recertification or testing of the MAX.


Just another sign of Boeing's endemic cultural problems. Shareholder value is priority first, second, and third at the expense of cheapening everything else like safety and quality.


Just to reinforce my point about Boeing's cheapening of quality...The Seattle Times reported in January 2019 that Boeing is firing nearly 1,000 quality control inspectors. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... nspectors/
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.

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