DocLightning wrote:So first of all, as time goes on and as more and more problems mount, I am starting to consider a possibility that I would have once dismissed as utterly absurd: The MAX is not going to RTS. There are a few ways it could happen. The continual trickle of issues could continue, basically "nickling and diming" the program until it's now been five years and the MAX is still no closer to RTS.
I see your point being a logical extension of the current issues. Every new issue cropping up needs to be addressed in the most appropriate manner.
The driver of this of course is that with the original certification of the MAX, the FAA entrusted Boeing doing the work and expecting it to be done extensively. As we now know, this was not to be the case. So to ensure that the FAA are seen to be a competent authority, and one that is not liable and could be dragged into courts for endless law suits, they’re not not going to be complacent but be 101% anal about everything this time. And this takes TIME.
But I agree; it looks like death by a thousand cuts.
DocLightning wrote:Alternatively, it could take so long that customers would start canceling orders and demanding full compensation and return of deposits for "incompetent offer" and other legal terms for basically offering to sell something that you don't actually have.
I believe we’d have to be at some very dire point to see the mass cancellations start. I’m fairly certain that there will be a lot of compensation offered to customers which will offer some sort of appeasement for a period of time. But that could change substantially if something else changed the situation. For example, if the grounding went well into a second year I believe it could be the start of a blood bath.
Just to transgress slightly: the single aisle, 150-250 seat plane, is pretty much the bread and butter of aviation at the moment. And I think current backlogs are proof of that. Boeing May well state that they’re working on a New design NMA. And I have no reason to doubt that. But if the priority is not a 737 replacement before the NMA, then someone needs to send a postcard picturing planet Earth from space, to Boeing, with the following words written on it: “Wish you were here”.