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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:31 pm

Cruiser wrote:
planecane wrote:
Aviator34ID wrote:

Q4?? Do you have a link for this announcement?


Same question. Last I saw was a certification flight in April or May. Based upon prior timelines that would be recertification in May or June. Last I checked those are both Q2.

Additional issues could lead to further delays but Q2 seems plausible with all information I have seen.


The latest I have seen is that US airlines have already ruled them out for the summer schedule: https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... -b737-max/

They obviously know something...


They know exactly what I just wrote. If the recertification happens in June (which, based upon history is more likely than May), it then will take 2 months to get those fleets completely back into service. That's what the airlines have said the timeframe would be relative to FAA approval going back many months.

It is a lot easier to add flights if FAA approval happens sooner than it is to keep them in the schedule and cancel them. In the past, WN stated that the MAX would be used as substitution aircraft when they were first approved.

Whenever Boeing restarts production will be the best signal that certification will happen in the coming months. There is no way they will restart production (even at a very low level) if they don't have extremely high confidence in RTS happening within a few months thereafter.
 
dagKentWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:45 pm

Does anyone have any idea what Boeing is with a Max-8 right now? It's flight #820, https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE820. It's up & down and changing speed. Looks like it was touch & go at PAE.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:21 pm

BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:01 pm

Boeing may as well line up the ducks and declare Chpt.11, look at how well that has worked out for AA, UA and DL.
Wipe out the existing investors, eliminate the board who drove the greed culture and start fresh.
What could go wrong??
 
BAINY3
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:39 am

I can't find an article confirming it, but my mid-August YOW-YYZ flight on AC that was originally supposed to be a 7M8 has been swapped to an A320, so it seems AC is further extending their groundings in the schedule as well. I believe previously the cut-off date was July 1. I think they loaded a bunch of summer schedule changes this morning because I had to change to a 5 PM flight instead of a 6 PM flight because my connecting flight was shifted 50 minutes earlier and the connection time became too short. But both the 5 PM and 6 PM YOW-YYZ flights are now A320s.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:31 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:42 am

So we are getting closer to Boeing's conservative RTS of summer 2020 versus the head of the FAA's best case, wonder if the stock price will fall to the levels when Boeing made its initial estimate or has the FAA buffered the price?

My big interest now is to see if Boeing makes another statement on restarting production, rumour was a couple months, we are close to March, so no restart until RTS for more resources to fix all the already produced frames?
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:19 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.


Chill a bit, we don't all know engineers that we can go running to when we read something on a forum and then try to take the high horse! Shameful, get a grip!.
 
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767333ER
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 am

BAINY3 wrote:
I can't find an article confirming it, but my mid-August YOW-YYZ flight on AC that was originally supposed to be a 7M8 has been swapped to an A320, so it seems AC is further extending their groundings in the schedule as well. I believe previously the cut-off date was July 1. I think they loaded a bunch of summer schedule changes this morning because I had to change to a 5 PM flight instead of a 6 PM flight because my connecting flight was shifted 50 minutes earlier and the connection time became too short. But both the 5 PM and 6 PM YOW-YYZ flights are now A320s.

They did load changes this morning because one of my flights in mid July got swapped from 767 to A320 so I’m not happy about that, but it seems that after July 1 the MAX is still in the schedule as some flights still have it. I imagine there will be more switches soon as I don’t see it coming back in July.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:14 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix.


That's pretty much what Boeing has said about every MAX issue - oh, that's an quick and easy fix. MCAS was only a "quick software patch" that would take a couple of weeks. Yet here we are very nearly a year into the grounding.

The MAX fiasco in six words - "trickier to fix than first thought".
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:15 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
These comments are just downright shameful.


Are you able to sit down? :wink2:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:15 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.



We have had people closer than just friends with engineers at Boeing posting on this site. Tdscanuck was I believe a test pilot for Boeing on the 777 and provided great information with his posts. Unfortunately being that close meant in a lot of cases he might have had information but wouldn't gossip about it on here, or he repeated the company line. See this post,

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=466375&p=6484907#p6484907

Current Boeing party line is "flight test date still in flux, overall program still on time. EIS not affected."


That was on the 10th August after the roll-out of the skeleton of the 787. So excuse me if I take the opinion of random Boeing engineers that comes from someone else with a pinch of salt, either they don't know what they are talking about as it could be that tdscanuck didn't know about the extent of the problems on other programs so are not in the loop, or they could just be repeating the company line to not rock the boat.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:00 am

enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.



We have had people closer than just friends with engineers at Boeing posting on this site. Tdscanuck was I believe a test pilot for Boeing on the 777 and provided great information with his posts. Unfortunately being that close meant in a lot of cases he might have had information but wouldn't gossip about it on here, or he repeated the company line. See this post,

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=466375&p=6484907#p6484907

Current Boeing party line is "flight test date still in flux, overall program still on time. EIS not affected."


That was on the 10th August after the roll-out of the skeleton of the 787. So excuse me if I take the opinion of random Boeing engineers that comes from someone else with a pinch of salt, either they don't know what they are talking about as it could be that tdscanuck didn't know about the extent of the problems on other programs so are not in the loop, or they could just be repeating the company line to not rock the boat.


So you think they will need to rip each plane to pieces to fix this wiring issue?
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:10 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.



We have had people closer than just friends with engineers at Boeing posting on this site. Tdscanuck was I believe a test pilot for Boeing on the 777 and provided great information with his posts. Unfortunately being that close meant in a lot of cases he might have had information but wouldn't gossip about it on here, or he repeated the company line. See this post,

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=466375&p=6484907#p6484907

Current Boeing party line is "flight test date still in flux, overall program still on time. EIS not affected."


That was on the 10th August after the roll-out of the skeleton of the 787. So excuse me if I take the opinion of random Boeing engineers that comes from someone else with a pinch of salt, either they don't know what they are talking about as it could be that tdscanuck didn't know about the extent of the problems on other programs so are not in the loop, or they could just be repeating the company line to not rock the boat.


So you think they will need to rip each plane to pieces to fix this wiring issue?

Proposed AD estimates 5hrs for inspection plus 20hrs rework if required.

Now go play with your friend.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:31 am

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.

I suspect there will be no significant impact on RTS other than there is yet another job to be completed in preparation. My concern would be that, in addition to the inadequately controlled fettling of aircraft parts, we can also see clearly that the Boeing statement of affected aircraft has been found not to be dependable and also it would appear that the Boeing safety of flight risk assessment underplayed the risk significantly (we seen this somewhere before?).

FAA have therefore determined that and AD was required to cover the whole fleet and to be applied before RTS. Good decision in my view.

No doubt this AD will be taken up by the other regulators.

NB. Several more ADs to come yet as reported.

Ray
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:56 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So you think they will need to rip each plane to pieces to fix this wiring issue?


I am saying take your engineer friend's opinions with a pinch of salt. You don't know if they are only keeping to the company line, know something but keeping it quiet or actually don't know anything as they are in a different department.

My example was another poster who worked for Boeing and on certain topics was way off base with what reality turned out.
 
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bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:06 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.


I would say your constant melodrama and generally unstable ramblings are far more shameful.

Anyway, back on topic: it seems that these fixes won't seem to take huge amounts of time. It does raise alarms on how on earth this thing was able to be certified in the first place. I hope going forward the next planes (looking at you 77X) get the same scrutiny before EIS.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:36 am

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
BA falling 4% as FAA are mandating new MAX fixes, immediately affecting 128 US registered aircraft. Affects ALL Max built so far.

Any knowledgeable people care to take a guess if or how this will affect RTS?

FAA proposes new safety fix for MAX production lapse https://seekingalpha.com/news/3545356?source=ansh

The FAA's proposed fix would require inspecting and fixing a metallic lining that serves as a shield against lightning strikes for engine-control wiring, as cuts or tears in the layer, located inside panels that cover engine attachments on the wings, could result in dual-engine power loss in the event of a strike.


You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.


I would say your constant melodrama and generally unstable ramblings are far more shameful.

Anyway, back on topic: it seems that these fixes won't seem to take huge amounts of time. It does raise alarms on how on earth this thing was able to be certified in the first place. I hope going forward the next planes (looking at you 77X) get the same scrutiny before EIS.


I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:42 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Who would know better than the people that actually built it?


You mean the people who designed and implemented MCAS 1.0 then decided pilots didn’t need to know about it? :crazy:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:47 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?



Are you advocating that Boeing self certify if a plane is safe to fly? Talk about letting the foxes guard the chicken house.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:50 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.


I would say your constant melodrama and generally unstable ramblings are far more shameful.

Anyway, back on topic: it seems that these fixes won't seem to take huge amounts of time. It does raise alarms on how on earth this thing was able to be certified in the first place. I hope going forward the next planes (looking at you 77X) get the same scrutiny before EIS.


I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?


The 737MAX is actually the example what happens, when you allow the people actually building them, evaluate their own design. Airplanes falling out of the sky is the result.
Boeing has shown that their engineers and managers can not be trusted to design save planes without somebody holding their hand.
 
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bgm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:10 am

scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Who would know better than the people that actually built it?


You mean the people who designed and implemented MCAS 1.0 then decided pilots didn’t need to know about it? :crazy:


And then proceeded to let the thing dawndart itself twice before doing anything about it. :boggled:
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:11 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Who would know better than the people that actually built it?


Isn't there a rumor that the 737MAX ".... is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys ....?"
;-)
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:44 am

enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?



Are you advocating that Boeing self certify if a plane is safe to fly? Talk about letting the foxes guard the chicken house.


I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:12 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:14 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?



Are you advocating that Boeing self certify if a plane is safe to fly? Talk about letting the foxes guard the chicken house.


I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


You do not need to have any specific knowledge. What you need to have is knowledge of the design process. The regulator will look how for example Boeing got from the idea to the product.

What are the assumptions behind certain design decisions and how are they documented and justified.

For Example: You do not have to have any knowledge of programming but you can still read a good code (because every line has comments saying why this is there and what it is doing). The same goes for a good design that is well documented.
Then the regulator just has to decide if the chosen "data" input leads to a low enough risk for the design to be safe.

What we have learned over the last year is that Boeing engineers and management are obviously not able to provide such documentation to justify design choices. If Boeing can not prove that every pilot will be able to handle a certain situation in 3s but uses this as the base to design a software, the regulator does not need to understand the software but can outright refuse to certify said design.

If an entity is not able to document their design properly as well as making well documented assumptions on which the design is based on then the regulator does not need to understand any of the actual design but can and should outright refuse to certify the design based on the general logic of "sh*t in, sh*t out". Badly documented and justified assumptions are in the category "sh*t in".
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:16 pm

Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:


If they were that knowledgeable and well versed they wouldn't be working for the government. They'd be designing aircraft or spacecraft for Boeing, Lockheed, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Airbus, Embraer or any parts supplier to the above.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:19 pm

planecane wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:


If they were that knowledgeable and well versed they wouldn't be working for the government. They'd be designing aircraft or spacecraft for Boeing, Lockheed, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Airbus, Embraer or any parts supplier to the above.


Exactly.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:20 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix. These comments are just downright shameful.



We have had people closer than just friends with engineers at Boeing posting on this site. Tdscanuck was I believe a test pilot for Boeing on the 777 and provided great information with his posts. Unfortunately being that close meant in a lot of cases he might have had information but wouldn't gossip about it on here, or he repeated the company line. See this post,

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=466375&p=6484907#p6484907

Current Boeing party line is "flight test date still in flux, overall program still on time. EIS not affected."


That was on the 10th August after the roll-out of the skeleton of the 787. So excuse me if I take the opinion of random Boeing engineers that comes from someone else with a pinch of salt, either they don't know what they are talking about as it could be that tdscanuck didn't know about the extent of the problems on other programs so are not in the loop, or they could just be repeating the company line to not rock the boat.


So you think they will need to rip each plane to pieces to fix this wiring issue?


Shamrockboi posts quote concerning lightning strike protection AD and asks if anyone knows if this will affect RTS. TTailedTiget screams from that rooftops that Shamrockboi claims Boeing will have to rip all planes to pieces. Me (and I guess most of board) wonder what the heck TTailedTiger is on about!?
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:26 pm

Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:

So the reason why the MAX crisis exist is because they were not doing their job or they expected Boeing to do their job for them or they just did not care?
Maybe it will be that simple going forward, but we did not get where we are today based on things being that clear.
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:37 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
..........
The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?


No, the problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that if you do not finance them properly (because all you can think of is how can I transfer another penny from society to the owners of capital), they will not have the talent pool to perform their functions properly. Too much government or too much regulation has become the reigning ideological flavor of the day for more than 20 years now. Financial markets players tell everyone they do not need regulation, the govt regulators are slow, clumsy etc. etc. Then they leave a financial crisis on everyone's door and whoop-dee-doo, a good chunk of wealth finds its way to the owners of capital while average people lose jobs and homes. Ultra rich taxpayers always lobby for cutting the funding of regulatory agencies, including the tax agencies, and guess what, a couple of decades later, no ultra rich corporation pays any real tax, which means government has even less money to fulfill its regulatory functions. You starve regulatory agencies so you can have people fill their lungs with cigarette smoke as long as possible or blood streams with sugar as long as possible while the producers of their poison fill their pockets. This is all in the name of "efficient" government, which is a euphemism for no one other than owners of capital to have even the slightest say in how society is organized (and certainly not labor or any kind of other organized force in society). It is naked capitalism: only money can and will talk and everything else will shut up and live with the crumbs thrown their way at the mercy of the owners of capital. Look around you, it is not that difficult to see. And please do not read this as a statement in favor of organized labor, the church, the intelligentsia, some sort of bureaucracy or some other group organizing society as they see fit. They each have their problems as anyone who has read a bit of history would know. The problem is blindly rooting for one of these (and generally going with the ideological flavor of the day) and not seeing the price society pays when any of these forces are not moderated and have full control.

I was on an eight-hour flight on a 787 yesterday. From an average passenger perspective the plane is simply beautiful and amazing. I keep reading here that the program had problems and I am sure it did, but no sane person car argue with the end product. It is silly to throw the company that produced this into the thrash bin just because it made a big mistake in another product. But it is equally silly to try to ignore that mistake or to blame pilots or regulatory agencies for it. Boeing would actually benefit from a very strong and robust FAA and yes, it would have a cost. If we can all get our heads out of our parts where the sun don't shine and stop this craze about squeezing every penny out every iota of economic activity and human life to "maximize profits," we would have good regulatory agencies performing their functions, not perfect, not right 100% of the time, but maybe very very good regulatory agencies (as some countries still fight to keep).

I do not know if you have ever hear of Thalidomide, I will paste a couple of paragraphs from the Wikipedia article on it, but please feel free to read more and see how regulatory agencies functioned in a different era ('50s and '60s):

In the US, representatives from Chemie Grünenthal approached Smith, Kline & French (SKF), now GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), with a request to market and distribute the drug in North America. A memorandum rediscovered in 2010 in the archives of the FDA shows that, as part of its in-licensing approach, Smith, Kline and French conducted animal tests and ran a clinical trial of the drug in the US involving 875 people, including pregnant women, in 1956–57.[citation needed] In 1956, researchers at SKF involved in clinical trials noted that even when used in very high doses, thalidomide could not induce sleep in mice.[citation needed] And when administered at doses 50 to 650 times larger than that claimed by Chemie Grünenthal to be "sleep inducing", the researchers could still not achieve the hypnotic effect in animals that it had on humans.[citation needed] After completion of the trial, and based on reasons kept hidden for decades, SKF declined to commercialize the drug. Later, Chemie Grünenthal, in 1958, reached an agreement with William S Merrell Company in Cincinnati, Ohio, (later Richardson-Merrell, now part of Sanofi), to market and distribute thalidomide throughout the US[37]

The US FDA refused to approve thalidomide for marketing and distribution. However, the drug was distributed in large quantities for testing purposes, after the American distributor and manufacturer Richardson-Merrell had applied for its approval in September 1960.[citation needed] The official in charge of the FDA review, Frances Oldham Kelsey, did not rely on information from the company, which did not include any test results. Richardson-Merrell was called on to perform tests and report the results. The company demanded approval six times, and was refused each time. Nevertheless, a total of 17 children with thalidomide-induced malformations were born in the US. Oldham Kelsey was given a Presidential award for distinguished service from the federal government for not allowing thalidomide to be approved for sale in the US.[39]
[/quote][/quote]

And the full article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide

Again, one example does not prove a case, but I am certain there were tens and hundreds more like it and Thalidomide became so well-known because of its horrible effects on fetuses while their mothers were taking the drug for morning sickness in other countries. I put in bold and underlined "[t]he company demanded approval six times and was refused each time." Think about that and ask yourself whether what the FAA is now doing now, belatedly, could be saving lives and, if it is taking too long or if it does not have the resources to do it, whose decisions those were.

And I will not go into the Wright Flyer question as its many logical fallacies do not require a full listing, but I will mention one: The Wright Flyer carried Wilbur and Orville and even them only one at a time. Trust me, if the brothers were proposing to risk some 170 lives repeatedly, hundreds of times a day, everyone in their right minds would want the government to evaluate the Wright Flyer.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:48 pm

bgm wrote:
scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Who would know better than the people that actually built it?


You mean the people who designed and implemented MCAS 1.0 then decided pilots didn’t need to know about it? :crazy:


And then proceeded to let the thing dawndart itself twice before doing anything about it. :boggled:


To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.

Yet, here we are just a few days away from March 2020. "proving trickier to fix than expected"
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:52 pm

par13del wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:

So the reason why the MAX crisis exist is because they were not doing their job or they expected Boeing to do their job for them or they just did not care?
Maybe it will be that simple going forward, but we did not get where we are today based on things being that clear.


Is it not a combination of those things? At the simplest level - terrible design by Boeing (MCAS) and poor oversight by the FAA? Then there's hiding MCAS and all the "Jedi mind tricks" about no need for training going on in the background as well.

Now the FAA is doing the job it should have done originally, people are bitching that they've got it in for Boeing and are deliberately going slow.
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:08 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm sure if you put any other aircraft under the microscope you would find similar issues. The problem with regulatory agencies like the FAA is that they simply don't have the necessary talent to properly evaluate aircraft. Who would know better than the people that actually built it? Should the government have evaluated the Wright Flyer before it was allowed in the air? If so, how?



Are you advocating that Boeing self certify if a plane is safe to fly? Talk about letting the foxes guard the chicken house.


I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.

Lack of knowledge and common sense abounds in these posts. The designer is specifically required to identify and disclose any novel use of technology. The purpose of the this requirement is such that the regulator can assure that the appropriate resources, including (as appropriate) scientific analysis and test and evaluation programmes are undertaken for proof of concept and (if necessary) the establishment of new or revised regulations. External organisations and expertise are employed in these activities when necessary.

It is worthy of note that Boeing sought to avoid scrutiny of MAX MCAS on the basis of its submission that it was not a novel use of technology citing previous use of an MCAS on 767 Tanker project. Only subsequently to the events, when questioned as to the use of one AoA sensor for MAX when the Tanker system employed two, was to claim the systems are totally different sharing nought but a name. This OEM can not be trusted.

Of course, with a captured regulator, anything is possible including ignoring the recommendation of the experts to encase the batteries on 787 only to have to do so following a safety of flight grounding. Hopefully, this situation has now changed.

The evidence is in favour of bolstering independent regulation.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:20 pm

par13del wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:

So the reason why the MAX crisis exist is because they were not doing their job or they expected Boeing to do their job for them or they just did not care?
Maybe it will be that simple going forward, but we did not get where we are today based on things being that clear.


The 737MAX is falling out of the skies because Boeing, engineers and managers did a terrible job. If Boeing would have done a good job, those frames would not have crashed and the 737MAX would be flying. You can not move Boeing's responsibility over to the FAA.

The FAA is there to check the work of Boeing, not to run their design. If Boeing gets the permission to self self certify, than there is no check.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:31 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
For Example: You do not have to have any knowledge of programming but you can still read a good code (because every line has comments saying why this is there and what it is doing)

Kind of a poor example, since well written code should be clear on its own with few comments. Most code reviewers advise to avoid looking at the comments and look at the bits that are actually being read by the compiler/interpreter.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:24 pm

par13del wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:

So the reason why the MAX crisis exist is because they were not doing their job or they expected Boeing to do their job for them or they just did not care?
Maybe it will be that simple going forward, but we did not get where we are today based on things being that clear.


They either were not given the tools/means to do their jobs, were not qualified enough, or were not told the truth by Boeing, possibly all of the above. The crux of the issue very much seems to lie in the fact that Boeing decided to be its own certifying agency, thus creating a massive conflict of interest. One can only guess that their lobbies in the government have worked hard to coerce the government into either underfunding the FAA or into putting them on a tighter leash when it came to their oversight of Boeing. At the end of the day, this is a consequence of the 'legal corruption' system that is in place in Washington, where the private sector and affluent industries are allowed an unhealthy amount of leverage over the politicians that are supposed to make sure their business remains in the greatest interest and safety of the population... The result is a drive towards de-regulation, to the point where politicians, especially of the populist kind, try to sell deregulation to voters as a good thing and a necessity... Case in point being the WH incumbent.

planecane wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm asking how you think FAA employees have the knowledge to evaluate specific aircraft design, components, and systems. Especially when you introduce something completely new like the 787 with it's CFRP design.


It's their job... :confused:


If they were that knowledgeable and well versed they wouldn't be working for the government. They'd be designing aircraft or spacecraft for Boeing, Lockheed, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Airbus, Embraer or any parts supplier to the above.


That's complete prejudice based on your biased political opinion on government workers. There is no reason any specialist, may they be scientists, engineers or otherwise technical experts working for the government would automatically be less competent than in the private sector. The only reason that would be true is if they would not be remunerated enough and would seek employment elsewhere. The problem in this case lies in the lack of funding of the respective government agency, thus preventing it from hiring the talents it needs to serve its purpose. See above.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
For Example: You do not have to have any knowledge of programming but you can still read a good code (because every line has comments saying why this is there and what it is doing)

Kind of a poor example, since well written code should be clear on its own with few comments. Most code reviewers advise to avoid looking at the comments and look at the bits that are actually being read by the compiler/interpreter.


Yep, I've seen way too much code that bore absolutely no relation to the comments embedded in it.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:20 pm

Transport Canada is going to be conducting their own flight tests on the 737 MAX independently of the US FAA per recent comments by Canadian officials to a House of Commons Committee:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5476130

The country's top aviation officials said Canada will conduct its own flight tests to examine whether the grounded Boeing 737 Max fleet is safe to fly after two deadly crashes.

For decades, countries around the world have relied on the United States to take the lead and certify Boeing aircraft, as they are manufactured there. Other countries then validate that work. But Transport Canada says it is putting in place additional measures to give Canada more independence in scrutinizing the 737 Max fleet.

"We've grown the amount of involvement we have," Nicholas Robinson, Canada's director general of civil aviation, said on Tuesday to a House of Commons committee that's studying the issue.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:46 pm

Boeing CEO David Calhoun sounds pretty nervous about leading Boeing out of the mess.
After all, the MAX is expected back in the air in a few months as an essential part of investors confidence in Boeing's future.
24.02.2020 >>> Exclusive: Boeing CEO David Calhoun on the company's relationship with the FAA <<<
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwPyhMZeJSM
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:48 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Transport Canada is going to be conducting their own flight tests on the 737 MAX independently of the US FAA per recent comments by Canadian officials to a House of Commons Committee:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5476130

The country's top aviation officials said Canada will conduct its own flight tests to examine whether the grounded Boeing 737 Max fleet is safe to fly after two deadly crashes.

For decades, countries around the world have relied on the United States to take the lead and certify Boeing aircraft, as they are manufactured there. Other countries then validate that work. But Transport Canada says it is putting in place additional measures to give Canada more independence in scrutinizing the 737 Max fleet.

"We've grown the amount of involvement we have," Nicholas Robinson, Canada's director general of civil aviation, said on Tuesday to a House of Commons committee that's studying the issue.

I hope that EASA would follow. I don't have any faith towards the FAA since the whole MAX farce...
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.


But then Boeing ran into the most astonishing of bad luck. A fatal accident essentially identical to Lion Air happened within 4 months, before the fix (no matter how delayed it was) could be put in place. If ET had not happened and whatever early MCAS fix Boeing came up with was eventually put in place the MAX would never have been grounded. I've said before that I cannot think of any other commercial aircraft type that has suffered 2 fatal accidents under identical circumstances within such a short period of time. Karma every once in a while perversely thumbs it nose at the laws of probability.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:52 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Transport Canada is going to be conducting their own flight tests on the 737 MAX independently of the US FAA per recent comments by Canadian officials to a House of Commons Committee:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5476130

The country's top aviation officials said Canada will conduct its own flight tests to examine whether the grounded Boeing 737 Max fleet is safe to fly after two deadly crashes.

For decades, countries around the world have relied on the United States to take the lead and certify Boeing aircraft, as they are manufactured there. Other countries then validate that work. But Transport Canada says it is putting in place additional measures to give Canada more independence in scrutinizing the 737 Max fleet.

"We've grown the amount of involvement we have," Nicholas Robinson, Canada's director general of civil aviation, said on Tuesday to a House of Commons committee that's studying the issue.

FAA is still the lead agency, TC will now be adding their own flight tests before issuing Canadian certification. I'm not sure how "independent" that makes TC. Are they planning to cover ground that FAA is not covering already? The article is pretty muddled, IMO. What value, other than independent yet likely redundant testing, are they adding?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:58 pm

hivue wrote:
scbriml wrote:
To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.

But then Boeing ran into the most astonishing of bad luck. A fatal accident essentially identical to Lion Air happened within 4 months, before the fix (no matter how delayed it was) could be put in place. If ET had not happened and whatever early MCAS fix Boeing came up with was eventually put in place the MAX would never have been grounded. I've said before that I cannot think of any other commercial aircraft type that has suffered 2 fatal accidents under identical circumstances within such a short period of time. Karma every once in a while perversely thumbs it nose at the laws of probability.

The whole point of all this regulatory overhead is to avoid relying on luck, and to evaluate safety from first principles and move forward to get the answer rather than to start with the answer you want and try to find ways to make sure you swing your safety evaluations to get that answer. There's lots of porkies we can find pretty easily, like saying 737 MCAS with a single sensor is just like KC46 MCAS with multiple sensors, by avoiding actually trying the experiment of what happens if the AoA sensor is bad just because a few test pilots sitting in a conference room went with their intuition that everything would turn out fine, etc. It's kind of amazing that blaming everything on the three second rule is still passing muster, but that's were we find ourselves.

scbriml wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
You make it sounds as if they'll have to tear the plane apart from stem to stern. I just spoke with a friend who's an engineer on the 777X program about this. This isn't a big deal or issue to fix.

That's pretty much what Boeing has said about every MAX issue - oh, that's an quick and easy fix. MCAS was only a "quick software patch" that would take a couple of weeks. Yet here we are very nearly a year into the grounding.

The MAX fiasco in six words - "trickier to fix than first thought".

I suppose you can expand that expression to cover everything to do with the MAX, but the original context was a ST article where one of two anonymous sources said this about the "cosmic ray" redundancy fix. The second anonymous source said the expansion of the timeline had more to do with redoing the safety analysis. I think you can guess which one of these two opinions I find more likely to be true, given how badly I suggest the first safety analysis was done.
Last edited by Revelation on Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:08 pm

hivue wrote:
scbriml wrote:
To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.


But then Boeing ran into the most astonishing of bad luck. A fatal accident essentially identical to Lion Air happened within 4 months, before the fix (no matter how delayed it was) could be put in place. If ET had not happened and whatever early MCAS fix Boeing came up with was eventually put in place the MAX would never have been grounded. I've said before that I cannot think of any other commercial aircraft type that has suffered 2 fatal accidents under identical circumstances within such a short period of time. Karma every once in a while perversely thumbs it nose at the laws of probability.

No. They gambled on beating the laws of probability and people lost their lives because of it. If the second event had occurred on the very next flight, it would not be considered contrary for a random failure mode.


Ray
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
No. They gambled on beating the laws of probability and people lost their lives because of it.


If they had actually been gambling they would have contemplated no fix at all after JT and just counted on pilots following the runaway trim procedure for the remaining service life of the MAX. Instead they realized they had made a mistake -- a big mistake -- and they launched an effort to fix it right away. Unfortunately events overtook them and ET happened under identical circumstances only 4 months later -- not late enough for a fix to be implemented.

When the dust eventually settles on this whole MAX fiasco there will be a lot of factors seen to have contributed to it. Bad luck will be one of them.
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RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:41 pm

Coronavirus is going to give Boeing another hit just when it didn't need it. The uncertainty over orders has increased dramatically over the past two months.This is one reason you don't get yourself into the MAX state of trouble because if something else comes along to destabilise the market the risks to the program become so much worse.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:45 pm

scbriml wrote:
bgm wrote:
scbriml wrote:

You mean the people who designed and implemented MCAS 1.0 then decided pilots didn’t need to know about it? :crazy:


And then proceeded to let the thing dawndart itself twice before doing anything about it. :boggled:


To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.

Yet, here we are just a few days away from March 2020. "proving trickier to fix than expected"

Yes, and the ET302 final report is expected in early March 2020, in only 1 or 2 weeks...
Boeing definitely need to protect any good news for a while after that ET302 publication.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:56 pm

hivue wrote:
scbriml wrote:
To be fair, Boeing said they were going to fix MCAS before the Ethiopian crash - Reuters reported on 30th November 2018 that Boeing was working on a fix to allow MCAS to check both AOA sensors. The primary plan was to launch the update within six to eight weeks, which means that the update was meant to come in January of 2019.


But then Boeing ran into the most astonishing of bad luck. A fatal accident essentially identical to Lion Air happened within 4 months, before the fix (no matter how delayed it was) could be put in place. If ET had not happened and whatever early MCAS fix Boeing came up with was eventually put in place the MAX would never have been grounded. I've said before that I cannot think of any other commercial aircraft type that has suffered 2 fatal accidents under identical circumstances within such a short period of time. Karma every once in a while perversely thumbs it nose at the laws of probability.

Frankly speaking, there was no mention of fix until second crash. The first time it was mentioned on A.net was by a Boeing employee in ET302 thread. Until then, Boeing maintained that AD about trim switches is all what is needed; and complexity of failure mode apparently wasn't understood. I could very well see a second MCAS crash occurring even after original patch released and applied.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:06 pm

Regulation in aircraft should be considered more along the lines of checking that there is a proper system in place to check bolts are tight not themselves checking each bolt.

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